The drop in temperatures at least merits a “Hey, what’s going on here?” story.
Inconvenient Science: NASA data show that global temperatures dropped sharply over the past two years. Not that you’d know it, since that wasn’t deemed news. Does that make NASA a global warming denier?
Writing in Real Clear Markets, Aaron Brown looked at the official NASA global temperature data and noticed something surprising. From February 2016 to February 2018, “global average temperatures dropped by 0.56 degrees Celsius.” That, he notes, is the biggest two-year drop in the past century.
“The 2016-2018 Big Chill,” he writes,“was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average.”
Isn’t this just the sort of man-bites-dog story that the mainstream media always says is newsworthy?
In this case, it didn’t warrant any news coverage.
In fact, in the three weeks since Real Clear Markets ran Brown’s story, no other news outlet picked up on it. They did, however, find time to report on such things as tourism’s impact on climate change, how global warming will generate more hurricanes this year, and threaten fish habitats, and make islands uninhabitable. They wrote about a UN official saying that “our window of time for addressing climate change is closing very quickly.”
Reporters even found time to cover a group that says they want to carve President Trump’s face into a glacier to prove climate change “is happening.”
In other words, the mainstream news covered stories that repeated what climate change advocates have been saying ad nauseam for decades.
That’s not to say that a two-year stretch of cooling means that global warming is a hoax. Two years out of hundreds or thousands doesn’t necessarily mean anything. And there could be a reasonable explanation. But the drop in temperatures at least merits a “Hey, what’s going on here?” story.
What’s more, journalists are perfectly willing to jump on any individual weather anomaly — or even a picture of a starving polar bear — as proof of global warming. (We haven’t seen any stories pinning Hawaii’s recent volcanic activity on global warming yet, but won’t be surprised if someone tries to make the connection.)
We’ve noted this refusal to cover inconvenient scientific findings many times in this space over the years.
Hiding The Evidence
There was the study published in the American Meteorological Society’s Journal of Climate showing that climate models exaggerate global warming from CO2 emissions by as much as 45%. It was ignored.
Then there was the study in the journal Nature Geoscience that found that climate models were faulty, and that, as one of the authors put it, “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models.”
Nor did the press see fit to report on findings from the University of Alabama-Huntsvilleshowing that the Earth’s atmosphere appears to be less sensitive to changing CO2 levels than previously assumed.
How about the fact that the U.S. has cut CO2 emissions over the past 13 years faster than any other industrialized nation? Or that polar bear populations are increasing? Or that we haven’t seen any increase in violent weather in decades?
Crickets.
Reporters no doubt worry that covering such findings will only embolden “deniers” and undermine support for immediate, drastic action.
But if fears of catastrophic climate change are warranted — which we seriously doubt — ignoring things like the rapid cooling in the past two years carries an even bigger risk.
Full story here
Source for data: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
these average global YEAR temperatures come from average global DAY temperatures I believe.
the swings in average global day temps vary 300% of what most of above graphs show.
what thermageddonists should explain once how they account for these swings?
if its just “errors” then the error bars propagate into the years right? you cannot jjst “forget” about the error bars..imho the yearly ones will also display 300% error bars lol. why? because its like that with most readings: if the speed dial of my car swi gs between 10mph and 100mph like mad, I can drive for a full year but if that dial is the only thing i have, Im none the wiserof my speed.
but we know that right?
because basic measure science is bachelors level, not phd.
if its sampling the intrinsic truth of a presumed physical quantity, we must presume a downward day by 300% , makes some physical sense..what is gaia doing after a cold global average day? does it have “memory” and claw back heat outfrom outer space, in order to satisfy windmill sellers??hmmm.
but you have all an answer on that right? bechs your all phds far far above that level.right? right.
From the article: ““The 2016-2018 Big Chill,” he writes,“was composed of two Little Chills, the biggest five month drop ever (February to June 2016) and the fourth biggest (February to June 2017). A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average.”
I thought this: “A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average”, was the most interesting part of the post.
We just have two more months to wait to find out if it has dropped to the 1980’s average. And like April, May has been kind of cool around these parts.
“I thought this: “A similar event from February to June 2018 would bring global average temperatures below the 1980s average”, was the most interesting part of the post.”
But why would it? In 2016 temperatures were returning from an unusually warm month. Since the start of middle of 2017 temperatures have been pretty similar, if anything rising slightly. It would be really newsworthy if temperatures suddenly dropped by around 0.6°C in the next two months.
Agree. I don’t think that that will happen even in the real world, let alone on Fantasy Planet GISS. Or Planet GIGO.
Massaging the temperature data can only work for a limited time.
They cannot just keep increasing the warming bias of the historical data to fit their models.
They will try to keep massaging. A lot of climate “science” jobs depend on warming. maybe we will need another one of those years where we dont get a summer before the religion warmers start to disbelieve. Oh but their faith is strong. Maybe as strong as when another ice age hits, they will say oh but CO2 caused this.
Why would they manipulate “Two Years Of Record-Breaking Global Cooling”, according to this article, if they are trying to show warming that isn’t there?
That doesn’t make sense.
So, Global Cooling doesn’t get a run in the media because: ‘Some people could go from uncritical acceptance of steadily rising temperatures to uncritical refusal to accept any warming at all.’
Or maybe they’ll get the right idea about Climate Change, that it has little to do with rising atmospheric CO2:
‘Annual atmospheric CO2 levels have gone up in pretty much a straight line since 1960, if temperatures did the same thing, the link to CO2 would be direct and obvious.’
Seriously? It went down 0.42K in the last 2 februaries after having gone up 0.75K the previous 4 februaries. Does this really merit an article? OMG.
Sorry that would be months of March. For February it has been -0.54K after +0.87K
I have been waiting for global warming to happen for 40 years. It hasnt happened yet. I haven’t drowned and I havent burned up from the unbearable heat. I am an atheist but at least main stream religion doesnt cost me any money(except that church lands arent taxed). However this CAGW hoax has started to cost me a lot of money and Im mad as hell. The world needs More CO2 NOT less.
Alan Tomalty
The UAH TLT satellite data record is almost 40 years old. It is the coolest of all the commonly used global temperature data sets and is contradicted by the much warmer RSS TLT satellite data set, which is in good agreement with all the warmer surface data sets. Even so, the UAH TLT data set still shows statistically significant warming since December 1978 (0.128 ±0.059 °C/decade (2σ)): http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html
You may not have drowned or burned up, and you might consider it to be unimportant, but unless every single global temperature data set is wrong, you certainly ‘have’ experienced global warming over the past 40 years.
sadly, its hard to claim those data sets right or wrong, they’ve been “adjusted” (tampered with, mainly so that the past appears cooler and the present warmer) so much that they can’t be trusted one way or the other.
I am reminded of a lecture by a former NOAA scientist who predicted both the warm bump we just had and a large drop in temperature afterwards. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCYjvs8i3N7vxSQiSagmm83A
Temperatures are dropping? As in not going up? It’s a travesty…
The similar sharp fall in temperature after the 1997-1999 el Nino was short lived. It was followed by a step up in global temperature that has persisted till the present. This was because the responsive La Nina pumped warm ocean water poleward.
So watch this space. Will there be another step up now? I believe not – since the “el Nino” was difficult (Modoki), not involving the Bjerknes feedback.
If anything, poleward heat transport is reducing not increasing.
Correction:
difficultdifferent.Minnesota has declared a state of emergency due to late spring and frosts.
https://www.iceagenow.info/minnesota-governor-issues-executive-order-due-to-late-spring/
Is this normal?
That’s not the drop Mr. Brown is referring to. He’s selling the drops or “big chills” between the February’s and June’s of 2016 and 2017 each, which is patently ridiculous. Do you recall having to get out your long johns in June 2016 after putting them away in February. We’re those June’s really colder than the February’s? Feb 2016 was the warmest February ever recorded, June 2016 was the 2nd warmest June ever recorded (2nd only to June 2015 by 0.01°C). And of course we all know that 2016 was the warmest year ever recorded, with 2017 the 2nd warmest. Its hard to believe that even WUWT could publish this nonsense.
[?? .mod]
John
What you are talking about is known by no-one but yourself, but we are discussing exactly the same thing – the cooling off after el Nina in both 1999 and 2017-2018. The former was quite a sharp cooling but was followed directly by an even greater warming that has been persistent.
So after the present post-el Nino cooling, it seems a simple and reasonable question – will it be followed by a similar step up in temperature, or not. I predict not, based on the different types of el Nina (1997 classic, 2016 Modoki). It’s a testable prediction. That’s scary – that’s science.
Just trying to unravel what Brown’s reference to the largest 5 month drop in 2016and the 4th largest drop over those same months in 2017 and then speculating about that happening again in 2018. The record of February anomalies have nothing to do with June anomalies. February 2016 was the warmest February ever and June2016 was the 2nd warmest June ever. What logic is there in comparing monthly anomalies of different months to conclude there have been “two big chills”? The average of monthly anomalies yields the annual anomalies. 2016 was the warmest year ever recorded and 2017 the second warmest.
As you relate the years following El Niño years are generally cooler. Seems logical. I like the plots I’ve seen where El Niño, La Niña years and neutral years are plotted on separate graphs. All three show the upward trend of each of those categories.
John Kranda – I was hoping you would give us something to be hopeful about..
This is just so bazzar! How would a third “little chill” (whatever that is) over February to June 5 months of 2018 bring global temperatures below 1980’s level, when 2016 and 2017 were the two warmest years recorded. That doesn’t compute.
Nothing DC’s NASA gives us ‘computes’. They have lied repeatedly and cannot be trusted.
Then why did Mr Brown use the NASA data to make his bazaar interpretation. He needs to stay in he financial/market arena. I don’t believe he understands heconcept of anomolies. And if I the data is so manipulated as you ploy how could NASA let this “big chill” data slip through the cracks?
Ocean dynamics create onshore weather pattern variations, thus ups and downs in temperature. Humankind must, to be culpable of anthropogenic warming, be able to drive heat into the oceans and manage to keep it trapped there over and above the natural water cycle. That poses a problem. The method proposed must demonstrate plausibility. It is a tall hurdle to warm up oceans due to human existence. Hell, I can’t keep a tub of bath water hot even though I am sitting in it up to my neck!
What problem is hat. It’s called the “Greenhouse Effect”. Been a fact of Physics for the last 200 years. Since the last ocean warming cycle has turned cto cooling, why is the earth still warming?
I love how when the data doesn’t fit the narrative the response is something like “That’s not to say that a two-year stretch of cooling means that global warming is a hoax. Two years out of hundreds or thousands doesn’t necessarily mean anything. And there could be a reasonable explanation.” Global temperatures have gone up and down for thousands of years, thousands of years before humans had anything to contribute to it, and yet it’s only the last few decades of temperature change that are important. Global temperatures go up a couple degrees over 10 years, its a climate disaster. Temperatures are stable or go down a degree or two in 10 years, nothing to see here, it’s just a statistical anomaly. Right.
Really? Show us when the earth’s temperature went up or down a degree or two since emerging from the last ice age.
OK, I’ll make the connection. The basaltic eruptions in Hawaii release HCl (among other things), some of which winds up on polar stratospheric clouds, where it gets photodissociated by early spring sunlight, releasing monatomic chlorine, which destroys ozone, allowing more solar UV-B to penetrate Earth’s troposphere. The same thing happened in the case of Iceland’s Bardarbunga (2014-15), which was the largest non-explosive eruption since Laki in 1783-4, and consequently Bardarbunga was probably the cause of the large El Nino of 2015-16. Explosive volcanoes don’t do that because they produce large eruption clouds with sulfuric acid aerosols, which reflect sunlight.
Felix: Do you have references for your claims? (Your cherry-picked lower troposphere is up where the airplanes fly, not at the surface, where the weather and climatw are.)