This press release was in Eurekalert today, and it reads to be part of a larger warming trend in the Arctic. But, not so fast, these “Meteorologists” should know better.
Arctic Ny Alesund sees rapid warming, but not the warmest
The Arctic plays an important role in the global climate system, and it warmups faster than the whole Earth. Scientists from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences, analyze the in-situ air temperature at Ny Alesund (78°55’1.2N, 11°55’58.8E), where the Chinese Arctic station Yellow River locates and warns the fast warmup in the Arctic, but also points out this February isn’t the warmest there.
The IAP team finds this region has the fastest warmup in the Arctic, and highest temperature in the recent warm wave. The analysis shows the daily mean temperature (DMT) reached 3.3 degrees C, with a maximum temperature of 4.4 degrees C, on 26 February, 2018, much higher than the other regions of the Arctic and even the lower latitudes. According to the annual report of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of USA reported by the media, “The Arctic saw the warmest temperatures ever recorded in 2016”.
However, this is not the highest DMT in the historic February, according to the IAP team. The DMT at Ny Alesund has the record of 3.5 degrees C, and a maximum temperature of 4.9 degrees C on 5 February, 2017. The analysis warns a rapid warmup in February at Ny Alesund, and the highest DMT in February has increased 11.1 degrees C since 1998, with a trend of 3.2 degrees C in every 10 years. In recent 10 years, the highest DMT in February exceeded 0 degrees C 8 times, possibly related to the change of the north Atlantic current.
###
Ok that’s what the press release says, let’s look at some climatology and real-world data from Feb 26, 2018. First a little about the location from Wikipedia:
Ny-Ålesund (“New Ålesund”) is a research town in Oscar II Land on the island of Spitsbergen in Svalbard, Norway. It is situated on the Brøgger peninsula (Brøggerhalvøya) and on the shore of the bay of Kongsfjorden. The company town is owned and operated by Kings Bay, who provide facilities for permanent research institutes from ten countries. The town is ultimately owned by the Ministry of Trade and Industry and is not incorporated. Ny-Ålesund has an all-year permanent population of 30 to 35, with the summer population reaching 120.
Now, the climatology. From this paper: “Changes in Winter Warming Events in the Nordic Arctic Region” by the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Journal of Climate, May 2016.
From the first line of the abstract:
In recent years extreme winter warming events have been reported in arctic areas. These events are characterized as extraordinarily warm weather episodes, occasionally combined with intense rainfall, causing ecological disturbance and challenges for arctic societies and infrastructure.
Later they mention:
“… we define warming events as extraordinarily warm weather episodes occurring during the winter season, occasionally combined with intense rainfall.”
Looking at the temperature climatology of Ny Alesund, we find this graph, figure 2B. Warmest temperatures occur in summer as would be expected. This event on Feb 26, 2018 clearly was an outlier weather event.
And this table from the paper highlights the length of the records there. only going back to 1974, yellow highlight mine:
Now from Weather Underground archives, this graphical report for Feb 26, 2018:
Note the magenta arrows in the graph above. The high temperature event occurs at the same time as the peak wind of 29 mph. Note also the wind direction at that time from the graph, SSW to SW in general. Note the very next day in the graph, Tuesday, the wind direction changes, the wind speed drops, and the barometric pressure drops – all indications of a frontal passage (which produced warm southwest winds ahead of the front). Note also the rain event in the table (another indication of a warm frontal passage ).
This was a winter weather weather event, pure and simple. Just as defined in the 2016 Journal of Climate paper I cite. Very likely it was a Foehn Wind, known to cause rapid heating from downslope winds.
A föhn or foehn (UK: /fɜːrn/, US: /feɪn/) is a type of dry, warm, down-slope wind that occurs in the lee (downwind side) of a mountain range.
Here is a Google Earth map showing the wind vector for that day overlaid on the satellite image for Ny Alesund. The path of winds would be upslop, over and down the slope on the mountain near the outpost.
This picture from the harbor via Wikipedia clearly shows mountains close to Ny Alesund, and with the wind vector we see for Feb 26th, it was clearly a Foehn Wind.
Even more important is the length of record there, very short, only back to 1974. You can’t conclude much from such a short record. There’s probably even warmer Foehn Wind events in the past that were never recorded becuase there was nobody there to measure and write about it.
Yet somehow this was a noteworthy event that needed a press release to feed some red meat to the climateers for “warmest ever”, even though it was actually second warmest is a very, very, short climatic record. And they make no mention of what caused that warm event, which is disingenuous and non-scientific.
I call bullshit.
Note: about 15 minutes after publications some additional clarifying words and sentences were added, along with some typo corrections – Anthony
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Ranchers in Alberta used to talk about being able to ride back and forth across deep winter chill into streams of mild air in a few minutes (the winds haven’t disappeared but ranchers routinely working from horseback has!). Usually a chinook could make it into Saskatchewan and on a rare occasion all the way to Manitoba briefly before we dipped back into frigid winter temperatures.
I don’t think Föhn winds were a major factor in this case. It was simply an influx of warm air from the south. Svalbard usually has a few thaws every winter, and Svalbard is currently in a warm period which has lasted since the late 90’s, so these events are fairly common now (as they also were in the 30’s and 40’s). The top 50 February maximum temperatures in Ny-Ålesund are (since 1974):
1 5.3 2005-02-17
2 4.9 2017-02-05
3 4.8 2015-02-16
4 4.7 1975-02-18
5 4.7 2014-02-12
6 4.6 1975-02-17
7 4.5 2017-02-06
8 4.4 1994-02-13
9 4.4 2018-02-26
10 4.3 1976-02-09
11 4.3 2011-02-26
12 4.3 2017-02-07
13 4.3 1994-02-12
14 4.3 2017-02-08
15 4.2 2009-02-18
16 4.0 1984-02-24
17 3.8 1976-02-21
18 3.8 1980-02-21
19 3.8 2012-02-04
20 3.7 1983-02-28
21 3.7 1985-02-28
22 3.6 1976-02-22
23 3.6 2017-02-11
24 3.6 2017-02-10
25 3.6 2012-02-08
26 3.6 2014-02-13
27 3.5 1991-02-03
28 3.5 2017-02-09
29 3.5 2012-02-07
30 3.4 1990-02-05
31 3.4 2005-02-10
32 3.4 2006-02-22
33 3.4 2018-02-25
34 3.4 2015-02-17
35 3.4 2012-02-05
36 3.4 2005-02-11
37 3.3 1980-02-24
38 3.3 2012-02-01
39 3.3 2005-02-09
40 3.3 1991-02-04
41 3.2 1985-02-22
42 3.2 2018-02-27
43 3.2 1991-02-27
44 3.2 2018-02-04
45 3.1 2003-02-14
46 3.1 2005-02-08
47 2.9 1984-02-21
48 2.9 1990-02-04
49 2.8 1985-02-20
50 2.8 2018-02-05
Thank you Steinar Midtskogen.
This list should shut up the Kristi Mosh Germ Zazove et al as it shows that this warming is nothing unusual and 1975 was warmer .They cant help themselves .
No signature of CO2 here .
Bullshit indeed, Anthony – as you’ve used the BS word, I’m free to do the same. What hope does anyone have up against your professional experience.
You’ve neatly skewered the Chinese like an insect on a pin.
Foehn winds are easy to detect by a drop in relative humidity, more so than a wind direction shift.
Never let facts stand in the way if the narrative!
http://cleantechnica.com/files/2016/06/Trump-global-warming.png
Truly, this issue as discussed is way out of context. We are clearly at the plateau of an interstadial warm period. Given that context, the ONLY records worth discussing are record cold events. When heat records are broken the only course of action that is reasonable is to celebrate with a cold beverage, thanking God we live in this period.
Here! Here! I live in Canada., the second coldest country on the planet and my idiot leader is at the forefront on climate change. This has been quite a cold winter. The only warm place on the planet so far as I can tell is the Arctic and even the wildlife there seems to be doing fine.
If only CO2 really could cause some warming!
“There’s probably even warmer Foehn Wind events in the past that were never recorded because there was nobody there to measure and write about it.”
Ya but there’s this old tree that talks.
Kidding aside, the lack of prior recorded data never stops the alarmist academia.
Oregon’s Lubchenco didn’t have any recorded history of seasonal ocean hypoxia events so she and her team seized the opportunity to claim Oregon was experiencing new Ocean Dead Zones caused by global warming.
“The are new, bigger, lasting longer and we have crossed a tipping point.”
Lubchenco did the same with her Ocean Acidification alarm.
The rabid left then used these two invented crises to push for 5 marine reserves to be established.
Naturally, once these areas of human prohibition were approved by the alarmed legislature money needed to be directed to monitoring them. Research ya know. I lets’ academics get out and enjoy their hobby.
And even when there are older records that disprove the alarmists point, they just ignore them.
As Joe Bastardi often points out, Arctic temps have risen some in WINTER, but the summer temps continue to be avg or even slightly below avg in summer. This is the most benign kind of “warming” imaginable.
If Climate Change is Really a Threat, Why Would China, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Abu Dhabi Invest Billions in the Maldives
The Maldives has always been the poster child for Climate Alarmists. They have claimed that rising sea levels would wipe this island nation from the map. The problem is, the Maldives aren’t sinking, sea level isn’t rising in the Maldives. So right off the bat, something has a very bad odor. Now we find that … Continue reading
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2018/03/04/if-climate-change-is-really-a-threat-why-would-china-saudi-arabia-uae-and-abu-dhabi-invest-billions-in-the-maldives/
That the Chinese would want the west to hamstring our industries is not surprising.
Bingo. Our Climate Alarmists are the greatest ally they have.
Youe info about sea level rise in the Maldives seems to be based mostly on the work by Morner, is that right? Or not? I first read his paper “The Maldives: A Measure of Sea Level Changes and Sea Level Ethics” in which he uses the presence of a tree on the beach as evidence of a lack of rise in sea level; that and the fact that 13 of the 19 papers cited are his own work are to me warning signs that this material is not scientifically thorough. I still wanted to give the data a chance, so I read his 2007 paper claiming there was no rise in sea level. To me it seems like a lot of it was based on argument: phrases like “must have,” “seems to have” and “implying” were abundant. He rattles off a bunch of observations that to his mind explain his findings. Usually I can decipher the original literature enough to figure out what they are getting at through statistical analyses, but this seems to build a case based on a bunch of disparate data not amenable to statistics.
“We sampled the sand in several submarine caves with the intention of
dating the sea level position at the time of the sea cave erosion. The biological
content in the sand was carefully examined and classified (by
Jacques Laborel) and divided up in ecological groups. Shallow water gastropods
and corals were picked out for C14-dating. None of our dates refer to
the sea level position in question. In this view, our efforts failed. ”
This shows two things: evidently this evidence didn’t fit the hypothesis. Perhaps more importantly, “our efforts failed” is a sign that they were looking for something specific, not just sampling to see what evidence arose. This, combined with the obvious anti-IPCC bias of the author, leads me to skepticism about his research.
“During our research in the Maldives, we were confronted with several
‘remarkable’ events, and we have to draw the conclusion that some proponents
of IPCC take the liberty to act in a dark Medieval way where ‘the goal justifies
the means’.”
Assertions like these have no place in a scientific paper. This is such an obvious sign of bias that is detracts from the author’s credibility. It’s downright bizarre.
Your statement, “What this evidence does prove is that the US is being played as a fool, and the Progressives are being used as useful idiots to promote the agenda of foreign nations.” is even more suggestive of the idea that you would be unlikely to see evidence without bias, and the “prove” shows you don’t see things from a scientific perspective. I could just as easily argue that US conservatives have been played for fools by the fossil fuel industry: through carefully planned and executed propaganda campaigns, conservatives have been misled into becoming political pawns to stymie any move toward reduction of FF use or increase in regulation. (See climatefiles.com for plenty of evidence in the form of original documents – if anyone wants help finding them, I’d be glad to assist.) It’s easy to make insulting assertions.
……………………………………….
From another article about the Maldives which you apparently haven’t seen comes the answer to your question. After the previous president decided to buy land and actually moved much of the nation to higher ground, the new president has decided instead to build up some of the islands, paid for in part by leasing others to the Saudis.
“The key to the new strategy is renting out islands and using the money to reclaim, fortify and even build new islands. People living on smaller lower-lying islands could then be relocated to more flood-resistant islands when needed.
“City of Hope
One of those is the City of Hope being built on an artificial island called Hulhumale, near the capital Male. To build it, a state-owned company is pumping sand from surrounding atolls and depositing it on shallow reefs that surround the original lagoon. It is being fortified with walls 3 metres above sea level — which is higher than the highest natural island at only 2.5 metres above the sea…..
“…Eight such islands have already been built, and three more are planned.
…
“In line with this grand scheme, the Maldives government is in the final stages of negotiation with Saudi Arabia to lease Faafu Atoll, consisting of 23 islands, for development for 99 years.
“It could get about $10 billion – more than three times the GDP of the Maldives – from the deal, but will need to relocate about 4000 people…..
“Nasheed thinks Saudi Arabia is seeking to secure its oil trade routes to China, which recently became dangerous due to widespread piracy, by establishing a big base en route in the Maldives. It is expected that the Saudis would also develop the atoll for projects in tourism and maritime commerce.
“The Maldives government is also planning for 50 more tourist resorts to be opened by 2018. ‘Tourism with resorts acting as natural reserves can be the saviours of the Maldives,’ says Adam.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2125198-on-front-line-of-climate-change-as-maldives-fights-rising-seas/
(I see that Morner retired in 2005. There seems to be a preponderance of retired scientists in the contrarian camp, but that’s just my impression.)
…………………………………………
Below is a summary of another assessment of sea level and related effects on the Maldives. I don’t know if this is any more factual; I didn’t read the original paper, but it offers a contrasting perspective.
“Authors of the paper, published in the journal Natural Hazards, examined wave and sea level data around historic flood events and found that multiple factors contribute to flooding in the Indian Ocean island chain, which has an average land elevation of just one metre.
“Wave ‘set up’ — the raising of water levels at the coast caused by breaking waves — was found to be the main cause of flooding. This effect was increased by prolonged swell wave conditions, where large, energetic waves are generated by wind storms thousands of miles away in the Southern Ocean. High astronomical tides, caused mainly by the gravitational pull of the Sun and the Moon, were also found to play a part.
“In addition, sea levels in the region are rising at a rate of about 4mm a year.
…
“At least 30 flood events have been recorded in the Maldives over the last 50 years, including major floods in the capital city, Malé.”
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/08/170807082332.htm
I DON’T CLAIM TO NOW THE ANSWER about sea level in the Maldives. I would rather refrain from judgement in such cases rather than claim to have a monopoly on the truth.
Ach, I though I fixed that typo in the first word! “Your,” not “Youe.”
Simply follow the money. Would you invest billions of dollars in a sinking island? I trust those spending the billions that they know there is nothing to fear.
Here is the actual data for the Maldives. It is a rather short data set, but in 1995 it was 7100 mm, and today it is 7100. There is no clear trend, and certainly no increase that is concerning.
http://www.psmsl.org/data/obtaining/stations/1753.php
Check today’s Danish Met Office Daily Mean Temp for north of 80
After a weird increase, the last few days have clocked a sharp decline.
All of that heat forever lost to space. It is hard to fathom how the alarmists have no understanding of the consequences of weather patterns.
Bal[r]my
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=6.80,78.69,3000/loc=5.526,77.842
Somewhere in the article the term “upslope” was misspelled “upslop.” I think upslop is a very apt term, denoting (as it does) a rise in land and in temperature that makes a snowstorm into a rainstorm. “What happened to the snow that was forecast for this valley?” “Didn’t you notice the upslop? It just changed all that expected snow into rain!”
OT…there is a storm system building in the Pacific which look s to me like it is winding itself up before unleashing a major storm. This is day 2 and it is now drawing more moisture from the south, …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-118.44,34.19,936/loc=-131.031,28.051
It looks like Southern California is the heading for this storm system. The amount of Tcw that the storm gathered over an eighteen hour period is amazing. It developed out of nowhere, so to speak. As prior conditions had only small pockets of scattered clouds through out the region.
There is a history of large storms hitting Southern California in the year following a major Northern California/PNW winter. This may be It.
In the last 24 hours this storm zipped northward to engulf Oregon. Washington, and Northern California. Amazing speed. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-128.04,36.41,672/loc=-129.443,42.984
“No statistics will protect me from things that I didn’t, or could not, foresee. Recent experience shows us that folks who talk about ‘two hundred year storms’ are probably making unwarranted assumptions. ”
I certainly agree commie Bob. However the enemy of good is perfect. I do have 20/20 hindsight.
I took an environmental geology class that discussed the importance of learning the lessons of geology. I had personal experience with 4 of the disasters.
A 200 hundred year flood changes when a new flood sets a record.
Excellent catch, but a quick check of Google Earth shows peaks of about 1200-2000 ft elevation immediately upwind. Is this enough of an elevation change to produce a significant chinook effect?
who knows, but an island surrounded by water warmer with than the winter air temp is not a valid place to be making any assumptions re arctic warming.
One problem. This was a very poor explanation of the Foehn Effect. Cool moist air does not gain heat as it ascends the mountain. It cools at the saturated lapse rate which is why there is precipitation. On the lee side the air descends and warms at the dry lapse rate. The differential results in warmer air on the lee side. Schoolboy meteorology.