Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The localised US “global warming hole” seems to have taken an excursion to Northern Africa, Europe, Russia, Asia and Great Britain over the last few weeks, but this hasn’t stopped climate explainers from trying to fit all that cold and snow into their global warming narrative.
Q&A: What does all this snow mean for climate change?
Why are scientists worried about freezing temperatures in winter, is the beast from the east a freak event – and what is the polar vortex?
…
Q: What are they worried about?
A: In the past couple of weeks, there has been a heatwave in the sunless Arctic even though the northern polar region has not had any sunlight since October. At times it has been warmer than London, Paris or New York.
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Q: So why worry? I feel sorry for the polar bears, but nobody lives in the north pole.
A: There is another theory about what is happening that could have much wider implications. The biggest concern is that this might indicate a weakening or collapse of the polar vortex.
…
Q: Could it be connected to the blizzards that many people are experiencing?
A: In December, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warned Arctic sea ice was declining at the fastest rate in at least 1,500 years with an impact that would be felt far outside the region and affect the lives of every single American. One of the research team, Jeremy Mathis, compared the Arctic to the planet’s refrigerator.
“But the door to that refrigerator has been left open,” he said. “And the cold is spilling out, cascading throughout the northern hemisphere.”
…
See, a nice simple explanation – the world is warming, but much of the North is feeling really cold at the moment, because someone left the fridge door open.
There is another theory……
And that’s the crux of climate science……there’s a theory for everything
It’s turned into some joke
Climate “science” is well explained by the late Karl Popper “‘A theory that explains everything, explains nothing’
Well, there is another theory which explains it, but the warmingtards won’t want to acknowledge it… it’s known as the Ewing-Donn Paradox. It exactly describes what we’re seeing now, it’s been known about since 1958, it was touted during the 1970s when the planet was cooling… because it’s a result of global cooling.
https://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the-coming-ice-age/8/
So CO2 is somehow destroying the polar vortex?
They say it’s heat from the iceless Arctic waters (supposedly due to CO2) that is disrupting the east/west polar winds thus destabilising the jet stream making it loop and stretch South bringin arctic weather to some parts of the Northern hemisphere. I don’t think they have any evidence to support this speculation, nor have I read anything that debunks it.
Check out Piers Corbyn’s talk on decreased solar activity caused the jet stream to loosen up and dip lower, etc.
You don’t have to debunk science-less speculation, there is nothing to debunk.
It’s actually more simple than all that.
Cold air is more dense than warm air. The Arctic warms, regardless of the reason, and causes it to have less inertia, making it easier to displace. That displacement results in Arctic air moving southerly more readily than when it is colder. This, of course, doesn’t actually cause the perturbations, but makes weaker ones more impactful.
The warmer air that finds its way into the Arctic by way of its own momentum will lose its heat via radiation into space, most probably resulting in a net heat loss from the global system. The same thing happened in 2015.
CO2 definitely is playing a role here as it will have an outsized impact when the skies are clear and temperatures are low, so it will reduce the rate (by a small amount) at which heat is lost to space… but the MUCH larger factor is the additional water vapor in the warmer air – which should also be causing more snow.
“The biggest concern is that this might indicate a weakening or collapse of the polar vortex.”
Or maybe the late 20th c. warming was just caused by a stronger polar vortex and it’s now returning to “normal”.
These pseudo-science clowns always want it both ways.
The Met office blamed it on sudden stratospheric warming in the arctic (actually predicted successfully it in advance for a change), but didn’t elaborate why.
The “Artic” is higher than the rest of the northern hemisphere, and cold air is heavier than warm air, so the cold air comes down from the Artic – simple. Some people just don’t understand sience.
@looncraz – “Cold air is more dense than warm air. The Arctic warms, regardless of the reason, and causes it to have less inertia, making it easier to displace.”
Yes, cold air is denser than warm air. But one of the principles of numerical weather (Bjerknes), which allow us to analyze and forecast the weather (more or less successfully), is the conservation of mass. “inertia” is equivalent to mass, so the mass M of a parcel of air is the product of its density and volume. If the temperature causes its density to decrease, then its volume expands such that the mass is conserved (Charles Law).
So there is no advantage in transporting less dense air. For example, if you are transporting a truck loaded with pre-inflated party balloons, the weight of the load does not change if the balloons warm up and expand. So the same total effort must be expended to transport the balloons to their destination.
So what all is happening? I just checked out northern hemisphere snow anomaly, and it looks like there is not a lot in either direction.
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_daily.php?ui_year=2018&ui_day=59&ui_set=2
Exactly what iceless arctic waters are they referring to? I’ve been watching sea ice all winter and other than on the Greenland side, arctic sea ice is at or above average levels, though it is much thicker this year on average than it has been in the past couple of decades. Hell I had to laugh when the first reports about above average temps in northern Greenland started to appear. I am not sure where they got the data to back up that story, but the GFS temp records do not show any warming where they claim there is warming.
H H Lam in his famous book speculated that the Jetstream becomes more extreme in it’s movement bas the planet cools
They have records as to the rate of the ice thawing over 1,500 years! Wow! And here was me, thinking that satellites were so recent. Perhaps they have a satellite that can go back in time – in fact, I am sure if it went fast enough the wrong way, that would work. Well… it did for Superman, anyway.
On that note, I recently read somewhere that the ice we have is at an anomalous high, compared to what it was prior to the little ice age… now there’s a thing; perhaps it is resetting itself to “normal”.
Sure, they know what the ice was doing 1500 years ago, but they cannot tell us about 1973 when they had the curve on the 1990 IPCC Report, then deleted it. Sure, sure.
I thought the most northern weather station is in Greenland and that the “warming” is derived from models, which tend to equalise on the basis that if it is cold below the artic it must be because the warmth has moved to the arctic, relying on a circular movement of air masses. I doubt there are a large number of on site daily readings to confirm the temperatures that are being generated by the models.
You are correct, that is exactly how they do it
So, I’m confused. Is temperature a zero-sum game where if it’s cold somewhere it has to be warm somewhere else? If it’s cold in the lower latitudes it has to warm up at the higher latitudes? Is that what they’re saying?
It depends on your politics
I think that does explain it after all: Most of the promoters of the global warming alarm are socialists, and Marx described economics as a zero-sum game, so it makes perfect sense for global warming (climate change I meant) to be a zero-sum game. I had never realized that before.
One of many massive untruths that form the basis of Marxism.
The sort of Marxist thought that destroyed the economy of Zimbabwe.
“the farms will produce the same whoever they belong to”
socialist/marxists tend to be very one dimensional thinkers I’ve noticed
Yep, the libs don’t just control climate science, they control climate itself. This is their way of taking the world hostage, and as soon as a sweaty global domination has been achieved they will once again let nature take control using a giant CO2 vacuum: Jack’s Beanstalk. James Hansen has two seeds. Trump doesn’t know it, but there are also a couple hidden in the (Bean-n-)Button Briefcase. The fifth and final is said to be in an attic in the Adirondacks, but no one really knows.
Another thing Kristi doesn’t do well. Sarcasm.
I would say this is somewhat true. The earth gets x amount of radiation each year and that has to dissipate. Having a warm North Pole this time of year is a cooling event in my opinion. The warmer air will radiate out to space faster at the North Pole than it would at lower lattitudes. Making the overall balance cooler.
” Is temperature a zero-sum game where if it’s cold somewhere it has to be warm somewhere else? ”
Energy a zero-sum game. If the Earth stay more or less at equilibrium, it doesn’t really matter if this equilibrium is at ~235W/m² or ~240W/m²: if something warms, something else must cool.
On the other hand, If the Earth is even slightly out of balance, says, 1W/m², it will warm or cool. But it will take MILLENIA for it to show, not just decades. Ocean is a huge reservoir with ability to easily soak imbalance, as it does year long
The big missing elephant in IPCC shop is the time constant if AGW happened. It claims it is virtually ~1year. This is nonsense.
It’s very simple. The North Pole is the top of the world. Hot air rises to the top and displaces the cold air which sinks towards the equator. Basic physics innit?
We don’t need no stinkin’ Hadley cells or Coriolus force.
I like this reasoning, “Occam’s Axe” we should name it.
But the North Pole cannot be the top of the world. The greater land mass is in the northern hemisphere, therefore the northern hemisphere is heavier than the southern hemisphere. When you spin a sphere the heavier hemisphere will always gravitate to the bottom, therefore the South Pole must be at the top of the world. Australia is up over, not down under.
I “saw” that and I’ll raise u a “go-devil.”
Yeah, we do, because “top”, to the Earth, means radially OUTWARD, not equator-to-poles as viewed on a printed page oriented as such for OUR “bottom” to “top”. The air currents displace longitudinally what gravity and buoyancy displace vertically, yes?
… and latitudinally, I should have also said
I think you missed the joke .. perhaps he needed to say earth was carried by Atlas for you to get it.
Gaspard-Gustave Coriolis published a paper in 1835 . . . (It was known before this, but not explained.)
‘ i ‘, not ‘ u ‘ It is a man’s name, or I would not bother.
I have been in Mesa,AZ for several weeks. Morning temps have been in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s. Maybe I should get a different travel agent.
if those warming guys were cunning, they would task their satellite to follow the “tropical vortex” or “earth’s red spot”, to find the missing heat. Since nobody is looking for the missing “cold”, it would all equal out (pun intended). however the missing “cold” is looking for us, this year.
-iron brian
If you flash back to the 70s, Schneider and Hansen were promoting geoengineering to save us all from the deep freeze by dumping carbon black on the arctic to MAKE IT MELT FASTER. Clearly today’s young intern climate scientists don’t remember the wisdom of their elders. /sarc
OTOH, a warm and sustained arctic cyclone sucking water out of the oceans and depositing it as thousands of feet of snow on Canada and the northern US and Europe is a leading candidate for the process that drives the glacial cycle. It isn’t too early to start looking for signs that the pattern is setting in. Like now.
In fact, if you look at the long term temperature variations during the Holocene, the Little Ice Age is arguably the longest sustained period of cooling for the last 15,000 years. Other cycles have been more dramatic, but short lived. I would hypothesize that the thermodynamic engine of the climate, like a car running out of gas, spurts forward intermittently but for shorter and shorter times. Now with the sunspot cycle dying, we have correlation if not causation suggesting that we are indeed entering a period of rapid climate change on the way to the deep freeze.
None of the change however, is significantly attributable to CO2. Imagine that we are children in the back seat of Mommy’s car. We argue about whether sticking our hand out the window will alter the direction or destination of the car. In principle, of course it will. However, Mommy has the gas pedal connected to the engine, brakes and a steering wheel. Mommy will go where Mommy wants to go, regardless of our childish arguing from the back seat.
You deserve a noogie for that explanation. ;?)
Craig, color me old, but is a noogie a good thing or a bad thing? If it’s good, I suggest collecting it here in Panama, the thermostat of the earth, where my max temp is 78 and my min 63. Otherwise, how about meeting at Ice Station Zebra, which today is possibly warmer than NY.
It seems to me, we would be a lot better off spending our research money on what is certainly going to happen than political bantering about what might, but does not, happen. Evidence talks, bullshit walks.
A noogie isn’t necessarily good, but it’s definitely better than a purple nurple or an indian burn.
+1
Spring will be along shortly, it’s OK, it’s just winter mixing in natural variability.
markopanama:
Yes! I applaud your comment and write to add to it.
Global climate continues to fluctuate naturally as it always has.
There has been a trend of global cooling for the 10 millennia since the end of last glaciation, but the cooling has been intermittent.
Within that 10,000 year trend of global cooling there have been shorter periods of warming which formed the Minoan, Roman, Medieval and present warm periods. The peak of each of these warm periods was cooler than its predecessor. And there were cool periods between these warm periods with the Little Ice Age (LIA) being the most recent of them.
There has been a short period of intermittent warming from the LIA for about 300 years.
The most recent century of the warming from the LIA had warming to the 1940s, then cooling to about 1980, then warming to about 2000, and little warming since.
Charlatans claimed the global cooling from about 1940 was climate change caused by human activities emitting SO2 from industrial activity.
That claim could not be sustained When the natural variation of global climate had been causing global warming for the decade to 1980, so the same charlatans and their associates morphed their claim.
Charlatans claimed the global warming from about 1970 was climate change caused by human activities emitting CO2 from industrial activity.
Global climate will continue to fluctuate naturally as it always has.
The charlatans are making a living from the climate change scare. I anticipate them again changing their tune to sustain the scare as global climate continues to fluctuate as it always has.
Richard
Well said Richard.
Best wishes, Allan
DMI’s measurement station at Kap Morris Jesup is the world’s northernmost weather station located on land, and usually the temperature is well below the freezing point of this season. On Tuesday, however, the thermometer pointed in the opposite direction, and the station measured plus degrees virtually 24 hours.
Degrees in North Greenland
Very close nearby, the world-class weather station at Eureka Nunuvut Canada (85N) had ZERO warm days and it was extremely cold throughout February. Arctic warming my butt.
http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=50737
This was also in February, if they have had a heat wave, hate to see what happens when it gets cold.
http://churchillpolarbears.org/2018/02/arctic-weather-brrrrreaking-records/
“Rankin Inlet, Nunavut gets cold in the winter. Located on the northwestern shore of the Hudson Bay at 62 degrees and between Chesterfield Inlet and Arviat, the town is definitely in a remote yet exposed region. Weather is just a part of life and recently the weather has been colder than cold.
For the past few days, schools have cautiously remained closed.
“I don’t remember the last time we actually closed due to weather. This is a bit of an extreme,” said Mike Osmond, chair of the Rankin Inlet District Education Authority.
Temperatures are getting to –40 C before the windchill and when the winds are factored in, it feels colder than –60 C.
“You’ve got blustery winds with some of the coldest temperatures that people have ever experienced,” said David Phillips, senior climatologist with Environment Canada, adding that his charts say skin freezes in two minutes at –55 C.
Windchill was expected to reach above -65C in the past couple of days and we are watching the area closely to see how the community fairs with the dangerous cold. Blame for the almost 15 degrees colder than normal temperatures is being placed on the polar vortex, a combination of an aggressive weather system and frigid air temperatures.”
Bill
The official DMI climate zone classification for the north coast of Greenland is Ice Ablation Zone.
The ablation is the result of warm dry Föhn Winds coming down off the icecap to the south leading to enhanced sublimation of the ice.
They place the Kap Morris Jesup AWS in a zone of enhanced wind derived föhn effect local warming and then some people are surprised at finding high temperatures there when, as in the recent example, the weather patterns to the south produce an onshore wind and enhanced snowfall along the coast of east Greenland…
Maybe someone left their snowmobile running next to the weather station.
Where did it even approach the freezing mark?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
All I know for sure, is that here at roughly 35.5 degrees North latitude and in the middle of the continent, the earliest signs of Spring have been apparent for about 4 days.
And not a moment too soon.
Snowing in central Washington State.
Spring? A fantasy.
It’s just racial memory John, there is no snow 😉 https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/blogs/tim-blair/children-just-arent-going-to-know-what-snow-is/news-story/5a16c85680b7cc94f345240a727fb09d
I love when climatesplainers ask “ask” and “answer” their own questions. Science in action!
How the CAGW explain the out break of record snowfall and cold in the Norther hemisphere.
h/t Real Science
I was going to link to that same one. I’ve posted it on TWN when their resident warmunist did a story on it. LMAO. A picture is worth a thousand words!
Of course in NZ it has been the hottest summer on record beating the previous record
by 0.5 degrees making it about 2 degrees warmer than average. Which agrees well with global warming but not with Mark’s claim that the world is about to enter a period of rapid cooling.
If the NZ meteorological service is as dire as the Australian BOM, I wouldn’t put too much stock in the records. Most likely an artifact of contaminated, spliced, cherry picked weather stations selected on the basis of shamelessly naked confirmation bias.
Most of the weather services in western countries are complicit in the global warming, A.K.A. Climate Change scam. Last year was ‘The Hottest Year EVAH!’, until this year came along and was proclaimed to have been even hotter. And next year will be ‘The Hottest Year EVAH!’, for at least a year until the following year will be determined to have been even hotter, and so on. Of course ‘The Hottest Year EVAH!’ can only be determined after making adjustments to the measured temperatures, (for scientific reasons, of course). These scientific adjustments are necessary as the actual recorded temperatures refuse to cooperate.
Here is the continent of South America in the middle of its summer, and there is nothing out of the ordinary to see. Nor has there been as far as I have noted for some months now. The same holds true for Africa, and Australia. I would say that this fact trumps your NZ above average temps which were caused by the above average ocean anomalies surrounding NZ. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-59.40,-23.81,672/loc=-62.868,-13.694
Goldminor,
the above average sea temperatures are certainly the cause of the increased temperature in NZ and would
also cause above average temperatures over a much larger area than just NZ. However the Australian Bureau of Metrology states that the summer was warmer than average – January was for example the 3rd warmest on record, December was the 5th warmest etc. So there was a considerable increase in average temperatures across much of the southern hemisphere.
The ocean anomaly has been in place for some time. It has shifted to the east recently. The western edge of the warmer waters is close to the west edge of NZ. The waters to the west are mixed, …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/primary/waves/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-185.90,-41.33,672/loc=-122.812,40.776
Ice Age Now site has been reporting summer frosts and failed rice crops in Brazil.
https://www.iceagenow.info/cold-frost-southern-brazil-height-summer/
I think the warmth in New Zealand and chill in Brazil is indicative of a loopy jet stream where the loops stall and get stuck in a certain location. The question then becomes, what makes the jet stream loopy?
You may have heard a recent theory concocted by Alarmists stating the jet is loopy because “missing sea-ice” is “breaking down” the polar vortex. The only problem is that it is also happening in the southern hemisphere, where there is a continent rather than sea-ice.
Oh well. Back to the old drawing board. They’ll concoct a new theory in time for next Sunday’s papers.
Me? I suspect the “quiet sun”.
Yes, I also see the Sun as being the likely trigger of what comes next in the years to follow. I think that this graph is the best depiction of the swings in temp which can be expected around the NH, …http://www.uni-mainz.de/eng/bilder_presse/09_geo_tree_ring_northern_europe_climate.jpg
Look at the sharp drops which take about 2 to 3 years or more of down before spiking back up. I think that we are on the edge of one of those drop off points. A first step.
I hope you are wrong, but am nervous you’re right. Just before the worst winters of the late 1970’s (in Maine) there were a couple winters that this past winter reminds me of. I was jealous (back then) because Minnesota got the deep snows, while Maine often got rain on the east side of the same storms, with cold sweeping in only after the storms had moved up into the Maritimes. Memory can be fickle, but I see some similarity between those “set up” winters before the “ice age panic” winters, and the winter now concluding. There were some big gales at the end of those winters, as I recall.
That ‘s funny, being from San Francisco I was looking forward to witnessing the famous raging winters of Northern California, when I moved into the mountains at the end of the 1960s.
I Knew of the two big floods in the 1950s/60s, and I looked forward to being there for the 1970s heavy winter. That winter never happened because the shift into renewed warming started in the 1970s, imo. Now, it is likely that I will be able to witness one of the great West Coast storms in this upcoming decade. Perhaps in the winter of 2025/26, or by the winter after that would be my best guess.
On JoNova’s Australian blog there have been comments about the cold summer in Perth and WA and the earth null school sea surface temp anomaly chart shows why :
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-205.73,-27.53,429
It looks as if the area (and volume and mass ?) of the cold blob off the west coast of Australia matches the hot blob encircling NZ and giving those islands a warmer summer .
Can one further quantify these 2 masses and determine whether overall the heat content has increased , as Germinio asserts , or whether the “zero-sum game” holds in this corner of the globe.
I have pics going back through 2013 for this time of year. The year 2014 is the only year where there is no warm anomaly surrounding most of NZ in February.
what do you mean by “across much of the southern hemisphere”? what is the lateral-reach of your thermo-meter?
I am using earthnullschool to observe temps. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-66.39,-24.15,671/loc=-71.413,5.315
NZ records do not go back very far. Also, tree ring analysis in Westland, NZ, suggest it was warmer during the mwp.
Ah yes, it’s hot somewhere, which proves it will soon be hot everywhere.
Nobody panic, it’s worse than we feared.
“2 degrees warmer than average”
What is average? What is the “correct” temperature for NZ and who gets to decide?
The snow mass in N America and Eurasia has become so great that there now been a extending of the scale so it can be shown on the plot.
Proof!- Of something or other.
Traditional meteorologists world over built theories without any ism. Modern psuedo scientists forgot or never read the meteorology [basics] talk and write on weather events in a sensational mood. Media picks up to get hype.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Well, this exceedingly good news! Now I can throw away my air conditioner and just leave my fridge door open to keep my house cool. Isn’t that just swell. Talk about circular thinking. Seems to be waste of good concrete building any new universities these days if acedemia churns out these delusional ‘educated’ kids that will inherit the world.
Even if parts of the Arctic were warmer than average briefly this winter, it wasn’t above freezing and much of that area was over land in the dark so makes no difference to melting or freezing sea ice thicker. However it wasn’t warm in parts of Nunavut Territory or parts of Siberia also experiencing record cold this winter as well as much of northern North America. Now that had shifted back to Siberia and now back to Europe which is also breaking recent records this week.
I really hope they adjust the temps this year to make it appear to be the 3rd warmest year on record. Because now the average citizen knows these climate charlatans are full of crap and propaganda. Just like all the crap they spew about polar bears, and sea level increase. The average citizen now knows this is no longer science, but just tired old politics now. Except for the deranged ‘climate science’ departments that have skin in this game.
Again – the world is more than just north America. Down in Australia and NZ it has been exceptionally warm. So the global temperature anomaly might well be high despite it being cold in the USA.
But I think the North American, and Eurasian continents are much, much larger than NZ and OZ. It has been below average temps most of the fall/winter season so far in NA and Europe as well as much of Siberia and even eastern Asia, such as was the case in much of northern China and South Korea for the Olympics. Unless it turns blistering hot in this summer’s northern hemisphere, (which is doubtful in a La Nina hangover) I would be very surprised if this year turns out to be even in the top ten warmest years since we have accurate records for. Actually we don’t really even have much for accurate records going very far back at all, which has allowed all this re-adjustment of historical temps to take place making it appear we are warming faster than we actually have been.
“Germinio February 28, 2018 at 4:55 pm
Again – the world is more than just north America. Down in Australia and NZ it has been exceptionally warm.”
Australia, exceptionally warm, in summer? Not where I am. Have you got evidence for that “exceptional warmth” or are you just spouting the same rubbish in the lame stream media?
Do not believe a word BOM claims, or their graphics. Just this morning they had one of therr boys on ABC spruiking about their seasonal temp forcast.
They claim I, in North Queensland just had oje of the hotest ever summers, where in fact, this summer was easily the coolest most low humidity trade-winds dominated summer I can remember experiencing in 50 years.
So they are flat out lying to us, Nov was cool, Dec was cool, almost all of Jan was exceptionally cool, Feb was outstandingly cool, and March 7 day forcast looks cool and stormy.
So, what BOM said to me this morning could not possibly be more at odds with my experience of the coolest summer I can remember since, well, since I can’t remember. For me it was a summer with no summer, in North Queensland, dominated by Tasman sea blocking highs and cool dry winds from them.
But oh no! Apparently I’ve just experienced one of the hottest summers in BOMs ‘records’, it was really, really hot.
You see, about 500,000 people here know what they experienced, and it was for me, the coolest Summer in my entire life – no question.
That’s an indication how bent and out of touch with reality BOM and their heat-maps, predictions and ‘records’ are. We would all be better served, and they would seem far less silly, if they put a giant concrete sock-in-it because it’s reality they’re in conflict with.
The rest of us just stopped considering their blurbs and graphics worthy of a windy bottom riot.
Germs
My part of Australia (far south coast NSW) has had a cool summer.
If some regions are cooling, then we have regional warming at most.
Which part of “global” do you not understand?
I am in Tokyo, Japan, where the temperature dropped to it’s lowest level in nearly 50 years. This is remarkable because Tokyo has grown significantly since that time, and few cities in the world suffer more from the UHI (urban heat island) effect. The temps nearly 50 years ago were in that period that science was concerned about the imminent start of a new ice age.
According to the articles printed by the media a decade ago, it should not now be possible to break cold weather records, and snow in much of the world should be a thing of the past. They were of course wrong then, and there are no more likely to be correct now.
How could you believe anything the BOM says. They have just been caught imposing a minimum temperature on Goulburn readouts.
On Black Saturday their predictions were out by 6C on Friday night and 5c at 11:00am on the day.
Their weather forecasts are regarded as a standing joke and the relentless adjusting of records have mad any comparisons worthless.
They are a bunch of activists with no morals.
I live in NZ. It has been warm,yes. Not that warm. Last summer the sea temps were low,not much swimming at our beach. But to say it was exceptionally warm is a bit of a stretch.
Australia has NOT been warmer overall this summer, only on the east coast. The west coast and to some extent the south coast has been a lot colder for the second year running. It’s interesting that the Aust BOM, when referring to the east cost warmth, always says “warmest evahh”, but when referring to the colder west coast, restricts the comparison to the last move of the Perth temperature measurement site.
That warm soike in the Arctic did make a difference. All of that heat surge has since been lost in the polar vortex. …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=5.95,89.86,671/loc=5.954,89.994
looks pretty cold to me everywhere I checked in the Arctic
remember, 75% of drivers think they are above average.
iron brian
lt looks like winter has not done with N America just yet. The jet stream forecast suggest a mayor cold event setting in by March 10th. With high pressure over Hudson Bay and cold air from Canada spilling down across the northern and eastern states of the USA.
Weatherbell has been showing that for the past week or so as well.
Yes its looking like a interesting set up. With blocking over the NE Pacific drawing cold air down across the western half of N America, and the high over Hudson Bay forcing the jet stream southwards over the eastern half of the USA and pushing cold air down from the NE.
You got that right! Old man winter isn’t near done with us in the US. March as a whole will likely be 5-7 degrees colder than the average. It will most likely require “climate scientists” to make more massive adjustments than they had to make to January temps to make the anomaly disappear.
Yup. Very tough when Ma Nature disagrees with warmunist beliefs. Very tough.
And this explanation from a “troll” over at the Jo Nova site sort of says it all about just how brainwashed most if not all the warmist crowd are .
Craig Thomas
February 28, 2018 at 4:59 pm · Reply
“If people who happen to be feeling cold choose to disbelieve in the scientific method, that is mainly a comment on their intellectual ability, rather than any comment on the science.”
Craig does his best to keep the flame alive, but lacks a basic knowledge of the science.
Craig is never gunna know what snow is. To most of us it’s that cold white stuff that falls from the sky but hey, what would we laymen know?
That we are tired of shoveling the “warmth” out of the drive at 5AM?
It must be a real bummer for the Craigs of the world handling all these distractions when they know that science is settled-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/techandscience/in-major-discovery-silhouette-from-the-time-of-the-first-stars-found/ar-BBJHe5V
Such is life at the commanding heights of science I suppose.
Great story and on cue, ‘Dr Bowman’s team made its measurement with an instrument the size of a chest freezer.’
“someone left the fridge door open”… which may explain why this ‘science’ just keeps rotting.
ROFL 🙂
Time for the compost pile, imo.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/techandscience/arctic-heat-spasm-caused-by-stratosphere-warming-has-a-southern-cousin/ar-BBJH4UT
Well that’s cleared all that up.
Climate is changing in the Southern Hemisphere, the subtropical ridge has lost its intensity and is producing weather extremes in Australia’s midlatitude.
The people of Perth are happy, the blocking highs have given them a cooler summer, but those in the south east of the country have had to put with heatwaves and cold air outbreaks for days on end.
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
The article unfortunately was still spouting both the AGW and the ozone hoaxes.
It would be nice if we could lay to rest the moronic concept of ‘balance’ in climate.
No, nature has no ‘balances’ it only has forces.
The sun heats the oceans in the tropics, from where the heat flows to the colder poles, with the ocean currents and wind.
Changes in ‘climate’ is mostly due to changes in ocean currents
+1
As long as Trenberth flat Earth energy budget will be around, science won’t progress.
This global warming ‘trend’ keeps changing like the weather.
Seems like just last year the world was doomed. Maybe some one just left an oven door open?
Perhaps that’s the deeper issue … leaky doors.
““But the door to that refrigerator has been left open,” he said. “And the cold is spilling out, cascading throughout the northern hemisphere.””
So scientific!
No wonder they can detect global warming even when its snowing 🙂
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com
Based on the wide array of unprecedented weather events, there is only one explanation. We have angered the weather Gods…
“And the cold is spilling out, cascading throughout the northern hemisphere.”
Absolute insanity. They really have lost the plot.
You never hear much about solar magnetic effects on the jet stream, strange that
It’s definitely all the fault of the Americans. I see it on American films and TV shows. A person goes to the fridge, opens the door, takes out milk or orange juice, stands in front of the open fridge while drinking straight from the carton. (Apparently Americans have not mastered cup or glass technology.) Clearly, that is what is happening on a larger scale.
yah so many Americans opening their fridge doors. The cause of global warming was staring us in the face all this time. Blame it on that BAD BAD television encouraging everybody to drink while holding their fridge doors open. Well i guess we will have to ban fridges. thats ok the electricity will soon be to costly to run them because of greenie policies. Everywhere in the world and i mean everywhere where solar and wind have been subsidized(except for [places that have hydroelectricity) ;electricity prices have gone through the roof
They are indeed putting in a lot of work to find reason why ‘climate doom ‘ is still on track despite all the cold and all the white stuff we were told children would not experience. And times goes on the excuses will get stupider ,and oddly given that most people have little interest in the subject what is does is remind people of the BS claims in the first place and is therefore counter productive .
the CAGW mob and the MSM are fixated on the “warming”!
1 Mar: SMH: Peter Hannam: The scientists planning to get stuck in the ice to plug a climate gap
For Markus Rex, this week’s midwinter Arctic heatwave is the perfect justification for the most ambitious climate research effort ever planned at the top of the world.
Professor Rex is a leading atmospheric climate researcher at Germany’s University of Potsdam but also the project co-ordinator for a €60 million ($95 million) year-long scientific expedition to improve the understanding of the processes under way in the fastest-warming part of the planet.
“We want to find out why the warming in the Arctic is so dramatic and so much more rapid than in the rest of the world,” he told Fairfax Media. “There are strong feedback mechanisms that we do not understand.”
The week’s warm, moist air injection in the Arctic circle has pushed temperatures above zero at what is usually about the coldest time of the year. The ejection of cold air from the region has triggered snow storms and frigid conditions over much of Europe.
As part of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate – dubbed MOSAiC – dozens of scientists will be based on board the icebreaker RV Polarstern from October 2019.
Launching from the Siberian coast, the ship will become locked in sea ice and then drift with the currents for at least a year…
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/scientists-get-stuck-in-ice-arctic-20180301-p4z2aw.html
So they are going to repeat what Fram did in 1893-96 and Sedov in 1938-40. Might make for some interesting comparisons.
“The week’s warm, moist air injection in the Arctic circle has pushed temperatures above zero at what is usually about the coldest time of the year. The ejection of cold air from the region has triggered snow storms and frigid conditions over much of Europe.”
However it was actually the other way around. The cold outbreak came first. I know since I live in Sweden.
The Guardian wisely has not allowed comments to that tripe. Someone there must have not lost his or mind.
The whole thing is quite simple. A strong blocking high over Europe diverted an Atlantic low to head north over the Fram passage: result snow in Greenland and a few mild hours at the North Pole.
The next Atlantic low turned to the south instead. Result: snow in Spain and southern France.
The first low was climate the second is weather.
Two or three thousand Manhattans of snow on Greenland, I read and saw on the DMI graph…..
Here in the UK, the snow is falling. I’m now 69 years of age, and despite all the hype and doomsday reassurancies, the climate has not changed. We still get the variety of weather we always have – hot summers, cool summers, rainy summers, milder winters, cold winters, plus the occasional unusual events.
1975 for example saw a hot summer, with a snowfall in June. On a lesser scale, this happened in 2009 as well. No doubt global warming would be the explanation these days for the summer snow!
I’m not a climatologist of any stripe, hence I’ve had to read and sift material on the global warming issue. Comments made for example by meteorologist Williams James Burroughs in his book ‘Climate Change’ (Cambridge University Press, 2001) are relevant here. On p186 he comments that the range of extreme UK temperatures for January during the period 1772-1821 compared with 1946-95 is virtually unchanged, but a large shift in the median temperature (half the population lie above it, and half below) is seen. He goes on to comment that the changes affecting winter temperatures in the British Isles over the last 200 years or so are a matter of a shift in weather patterns rather than a significant warming of the northern hemisphere.
Moving on from this, the Köppen climate classification stresses that a range of temperatures are relevant in describing climate – how often do we see this in any discussion of the issue? Never – all ‘bloggers’ seem obsessed with fractional claimed global averages’
A favourite observation of mine is a reader’s letter from the UK’s Sunday Telegraph newspaper ( page 23 on Tuesday October 1st 2013) from Captain Derek Blacker RN (retd.), Director of Naval Oceanography and Meteorology 1982-84. He said this:
“I was a meteorologist during the Seventies when glaciers in Europe and other continents had been growing for the previous ten years, and pack ice had been increasing during winters to cover almost all of the Denmark Strait between Iceland and Greenland. Scientists were then warning that the Earth could be entering another ice age. The current deliberations of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have conveniently overlooked this. Before insisting that humans have been the main cause of global warming an explanation of this apparent anomaly should be promulgated.”
In connection with this letter, a look at information supplied by the Icelandic Meteorological Office is interesting. During the first two decades of the twentieth century, “heavy sea ice was quite common along the coasts of Iceland, but in the 1920s a drastic change occurred. Sea ice along the coasts of Iceland became an uncommon event, and almost a forgotten phenomenon around the middle of the century. An abrupt change occurred in the mid-1960s. Heavy sea ice formed almost each year following that period, but since 1980 widespread and long-lasting sea ice off Iceland is seen at rather irregular intervals.”
Some of the important fishing areas around Iceland are located on the shallow banks off the coast of Greenland at about 63ºN. These banks can be ice-covered during most of the year, causing difficulties for the fishing vessels. Ice edges form ‘tongues’ which extend like giant hooks when viewed from a satellite, extending for many kilometres (over 100km for example) and curving back towards the main ice sheet. These ice tongues, which can change rapidly from one day to another, are particularly important for fishing vessels operating near the ice edge. In some cases the ice tongues can turn back towards the main ice pack and vessels near the ice edge can be trapped. Consequently trawlers need accurate ice edge maps updated every day.
These are real world observations rather than suppositions based on modelled temperature based on the assumption that CO2 is causing dangerous global warming matter.
To end, William James Burroughs comments in his book referred to above that the Central England Temperature (CET) ‘confirms the exceptionally low temperatures of the 1690s and in particular the cold springs of this decade. Equally striking is the sudden warming from the 1690s to the 1730s. In less than forty years the conditions went from the depths of the little ice age to something comparable to the warmest decades of the twentieth century’.
Let’s wait and see what happens next!
What those two years have in common is that the snow storm came around the time of the solar minimum, just as we are currently close to the solar minimum now. Regarding your “…1975 for example saw a hot summer, with a snowfall in June. On a lesser scale, this happened in 2009 as well …”. Also, both of those summers were hot summers in California. Our coasts share many similarities in their weather patterns.
The other thing which they have in common is that 1975 is several years before the start of the warming trend, and that 2009 is several years after the shift point where warning peaks settles out, and then starts to fall, imo.
Interesting observations. Thanks, goldminor.
It’s still the SUN STUPID! We are heading to solar minimum after a low cycle. 1/1000 of sun’s output is million times more energy than we produce total in this planet.
I note that earthnullschool has the North Pole at minus 29C today. Thawing away!
On the night between wed./thu. this week, there has been 21 new norwegian cold records for march, according to official readings.
https://www.nrk.no/hordaland/21-nye-norske-kulderekorder-satt-i-natt-1.13935896
Must be because we now have to many Teslas beacuse of government subsidies…..
Germinio
February 28, 2018 at 3:53 pm: Here in NZ, we have been sitting in a warm blob caused by cyclic (18yr-5yr repeating IIRC) lunar tidal cycle gyre plus remnant failed enso cycle warm water. All obvious if one watches the maps. It is now fading as the general Quiet Sun conditions regain control even of tiny NZ in its enormous and cooling South Pacific ocean.
The ‘hot arctic causing loopy jetstream’ warmista tripe reverses the energy flux from reality. As usual with these charlitans, Germinio.
In fact, it started as the higher solar radiation bands faltered a few years ago, causing equatorial thermosphere/mesosphere levels to fall. Or Hubble would have burnt up by now, or soon, a well known fact. This energy loss relaxed the pressure-differential from equator to poles. That is what primarily allows loopy or meridional jetstreams. Your hot arctic air radiates its merely less cold air’s energy to to the real cold of space. Very quickly.
Try to think also of how lesser input versus unimpaired, possibly enhanced polar exit of energy plays out in longer-term GAST. The penny has dropped and I have finally realised
The collateral of this is that, as well as more rapid air cooling, we get less solar deep heating (a few hundred metres) of the oceans. A double whammy the warmistas have no chance of assimilating while their fraud fragments. Winning is fun, but cooling is not. Folk who push for higher heating costs, like warmista, should and will be shamed. Cheers from Brett
Oops! …finally realised that the more direct meridional transport would speed movement and increase differentials and vigourous weather too. A mark of mini/LIA’s.
Does anyone remember when some voices were pointing fingers at the above average Alaskan temps seen earlier in this winter? Well turn around is fair play. The PV has struck, …https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-139.28,58.60,1821/loc=-142.479,60.831
I would say, send Barry O back to that melting village to preach warming at them. Inuit have a traditional way of dealing with useless mouths.
Looks like snow in Victoria. Anyone for skying?
We live in a world of magic where one beliefs become reality. Therefore I blame Michael Mann and all his followers for this mess.
OK /sarc OFF now:
“Cape Morris Jesup at the northern tip of Greenland […] has recorded 61 hours above 0C” that’s with or without temperature “adjustments”?
This place is a “foehn” place, that can be quite hot (relatively), it just need the wind to blow in a special direction. Nothing to do with climate change, of course, unless the almighty AGW can also change wind direction (why not, it has so much powa).
Although there have been cold periods (I’m living through one right now!) the northern hemisphere as a whole, not just the high Arctic, was warmer than average during February. That’s going by the reanalysis carried out by University of Maine. For the past week or so the NH has been >1C above the 1979-2000 average for each day, including today.
Hopefully Roy Spencer will put out the preliminary UAH TLT satellite temperature data for February today or tomorrow, so we’ll see whether it agrees with the surface reanalysis re above average NH temperatures.
DWR54, once again you show why it is so obvious that the AMO is responsible for much of the recent warming.
Northern hemisphere TLT temperatures in February +0.24 above 1981-2010 average according to Roy: http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/03/uah-global-temperature-update-for-february-2018-0-20-deg-c/
greeniad …
Was it so hard to say “weather is not climate”?
Yes it was, as this would had destroyed the ominous “look, there is [insert heat, storm, flood or whatever event], this is climate change” meme of theirs.
Well, I for one can’t get over how wasteful and irresponsible Ma Nature has been, leaving the fridge door open like that. Doesn’t she realize that, although we are currently in an interglacial period we are still in an ice age? And that even though we’ve had some warming since the LIA, that we may in fact be going into a period of cooling, possibly lasting for decades? Doesn’t she know that it is cooling, not warming that is dangerous to man, and to all life? Shame on her!
Yes, collapse of the Polar Vortex right after collapse or slowing of the Gulf Stream other fill-in-the-blank speculative scare statements. This Q&A sounds similar to verbiage now used at some national park displays on science and the environment, i.e. unsupported speculations to extend the bias.
They’re trying for another Nobel Prize its been a while.
That chart says the globe warmed at a rate of 0.174 C/dec over the last 10 years and 0.235 C/dec over the past 5 years.
and tolerance for error is 0.4C, so yeah zero sum
And it took the strongest El Nino in decades to even get that much.
==> DWR54
However:
Doesn’t that chart simply show that the average temp now is pretty much the same as the average temp in 2005? (even if you can play with trend lines).
VB_Bitter
Two months that occur years apart may happen to have similar temperature anomalies, or the earlier one might even be warmer than the more recent one, but that doesn’t say a great deal about what changes may have occurred between those two points. You have to take account of the intervening anomalies to get the full picture, and that’s what linear trends do.
For instance, the temperature anomaly in UAH in December 1987 was 0.371 C; whereas in January 2018 it was just 0.256 C. No reasonable person would draw a straight line between these two points and declare that there has been global cooling in UAH since Dec 1987! Indeed, the linear trend shows that there has been statistically significant warming in UAH since Dec 1987 (0.126 ±0.091 °C/decade (2σ)).
Likewise with the above chart. Individual anomalies back in 2007 might be similar to those over recent months, but the underlying trend since then is still a warming one, as the chart itself states.
Rob, what La Nina? One hasn’t started yet.
Regardless, if you want to take out both El Nino and La Nina, you will find agreement with me.
Unlike you, I’m not a hypocrite.
DW
The first graph is NCEP CFSR 2005 – 2017
the second is UAH 1985 -2017
But Ok I take your point.
Anyone can see the rise in the average anomally in the satellite record just like they see it in GISS or Hadcrut. At a rate no faster than many other changes in the earth’s history.
I’m not disputing there has been a temperature rise. A pretty small one since a very cold period (the Little Ice Age)
But no reasonable person would get uptight about a 0.174 c degree increase in an anomaly over 10 years when the last record was pretty much the same as the last.
No reasonable person would try and make a point about a 0.235 increase over the last 5 years when the last record showed a temperature anomaly pretty much the same as the the start.
No reasonable person would get uptight about:
“warming in UAH since Dec 1987 to now of (0.126 ±0.091 °C/decade (2σ)).”
Those trends are not scary and there is no garrantee those trends will continue to go up either.
KLohrn
Where did you get that 0.4C figure from please? Even if it’s correct, the chart still shows ‘best estimate’ warming over the past 10 years; or since Gore released his movie back in 2007. That’s in agreement with all the other global temperature data sources, including UAH TLT satellite data.
In the RSS satellite TLT, which AFAIK uses the same source material as UAH, the warming since 2007 is statistically significant (0.419 ±0.374 °C/decade (2σ)): http://www.ysbl.york.ac.uk/~cowtan/applets/trend/trend.html
Exactly a zero sum. I’m not sure the give Nobel Prizes for zero sums, but anything is possible in the future.
KLohrn
No source for the 0.4 figure you quoted?
All the global temperature data sets, whether surface or satellite, including the one you linked to, show best estimate warming since 2007. GISS, HadCrut4, NOAA, Berkeley, and RSS all show statistically significant warming since 2007.
How’s that a ‘zero sum’ exactly?
> 0.419 ±0.374 °C
KLohrn
That’s the warming rate quoted by RSS since 2007 that I linked to earlier.
The fact that the best estimate rate (0.419) is higher than the uncertainty (0.374) at the >95% confidence level confirms that the warming is statistically significant. Even if we deduct the error margin from the best estimate we still get a warming trend.
That’s what statistical significance means.
If there is no error on the data, then there is no need for any error on the rate.
To be statistically significant would need a register as 1 on any associated scale. Otherwise insignificant (statistically speaking) or otherwise in relation to the scale Celsius. Unless you want to discuss the significance of a zero sum on any scale. Which in this case, we are.
“But the door to that refrigerator has been left open,” he said. “And the cold is spilling out, cascading throughout the northern hemisphere.”
Would the person that left the fridge open be Mother Nature?
Here’s the beeb’s rage against reality:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43158532
Soon all refrigerators shipped in UL listed confines will need to come equipped “Gore-n-height” thermostats, these will of course registers and read those millitemps 0.011 C or F that were so wide degrees in the past.
Global Warming – the irrefutable theory. Is it scientific if it cannot be disproved? Like faith?
Is the anthropogenic CO2 caused contribution to warming significant? you don’t you mean Richard. Keep up.
It probably is. But that’s not what Global Warming is all about. It’s that the warming is inexorable, due exclusively to CO2, universally bad, catastrophic in fact, that we can control our climate by legislation. That we live on a wobbly sphere, spewing volcanoes, in a not completely stable, complicated orbit around the Sun, which undergoes changes of its own, and the milky way, amid space objects, cosmic rays and dust, in no way factors into our climate equation.
Inexorable? for decades it seems yes. Exclusively? no, but who claims that? Universally? also no, no one claims that either. Again, if so who? Catastrophic? depends how warm one supposes.
You agree that it “probably is” contributing to significant warming, then how warm is too warm to push the climate system Richard? Lets not find out the hard way.