Study: Climate Skeptics Arguments are Demonstrably False

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

A lecturer in critical thinking has demonstrated his technique for defeating climate skepticism.

How to use critical thinking to spot false climate claims

February 7, 2018 3.46pm AEDT

Peter Ellerton

Lecturer in Critical Thinking, Director of the UQ Critical Thinking Project, The University of Queensland

Much of the public discussion about climate science consists of a stream of assertions. The climate is changing or it isn’t; carbon dioxide causes global warming or it doesn’t; humans are partly responsible or they are not; scientists have a rigorous process of peer review or they don’t, and so on.

Despite scientists’ best efforts at communicating with the public, not everyone knows enough about the underlying science to make a call one way or the other. Not only is climate science very complex, but it has also been targeted by deliberate obfuscation campaigns.

If we lack the expertise to evaluate the detail behind a claim, we typically substitute judgment about something complex (like climate science) with judgment about something simple (the character of people who speak about climate science).

But there are ways to analyse the strength of an argument without needing specialist knowledge. My colleagues, Dave Kinkead from the University of Queensland Critical Thinking Project and John Cook from George Mason University in the US, and I published a paper yesterday in Environmental Research Letters on a critical thinking approach to climate change denial.

Six steps to evaluate contrarian climate claims

Identify the claim: First, identify as simply as possible what the actual claim is. In this case, the argument is:

The climate is currently changing as a result of natural processes.

Construct the supporting argument: An argument requires premises (those things we take to be true for the purposes of the argument) and a conclusion (effectively the claim being made). The premises together give us reason to accept the conclusion. The argument structure is something like this:

  • Premise one: The climate has changed in the past through natural processes
  • Premise two: The climate is currently changing
  • Conclusion: The climate is currently changing through natural processes.

Check for ambiguity: The argument mentions climate change in its premises and conclusion. But the climate can change in many ways, and the phrase itself can have a variety of meanings. The problem with this argument is that the phrase is used to describe two different kinds of change.

Current climate change is much more rapid than previous climate change – they are not the same phenomenon. The syntax conveys the impression that the argument is valid, but it is not. To clear up the ambiguity, the argument can be presented more accurately by changing the second premise:

  • Premise one: The climate has changed in the past through natural processes
  • Premise two: The climate is currently changing at a more rapid rate than can be explained by natural processes
  • Conclusion: The climate is currently changing through natural processes.

This correction for ambiguity has resulted in a conclusion that clearly does not follow from the premises. The argument has become invalid once again.

We can restore validity by considering what conclusion would follow from the premises. This leads us to the conclusion:

  • Conclusion: Human (non-natural) activity is necessary to explain current climate change.

Read more: https://theconversation.com/how-to-use-critical-thinking-to-spot-false-climate-claims-91314

By adding unequivocal acceptance of the alarmist claim that recent global temperature changes are occurring more rapidly than can be explained by natural processes, you can overturn skeptic claims that recent temperature variations were mostly natural.

If you want to examine this technique in detail, Professor Ellerton’s study is available here.

What can I say – if your child attends University of Queensland, make sure they sign up to a class in critical thinking delivered by Professor Peter Ellerton.

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February 9, 2018 3:18 pm

I would like to add to my incomplete last paragraph above that:
, the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, both of which bodies are responsible for supplying supporting material to the IPCC for Australian temperatures (BOM) and Atmospheric Modelling (CSIRO). I asked if they could tell me which of the temperature definitions T (average) of the IOCC’s T(Effective Emission) were used to provide the monthly or annual “anomalies” which tell us whether the globe has cooled, or more like ” reached an unprecedented record high temperature”.. Nome except Karoly was able to answer the question but blotted his copy book by saying that the “models also used the linear, temperature average which cannot be so since the forcing is defined in terms of average radiation, not directly as a temperature.
All of them – except Karoly said I would have to ask NASA or CRU. Can you possibly imagine it?? People who claim to be right up there advocating the veracity of the greenhouse effect and climate change, can’t even tell you the answer to what is probably THE most basic question in all of the discussion “How is this temperature they are talking about defined”
Will Stefan also reminded me that the basis for the theory of the Global Warming, which claims that the underlying Green House Effect, (before we start discussing the Enhanced Green House Effect (arising from INCREASES in CO2,) is “demonstrated” by the difference in temperatures between that of an airless black, substance free, shell, and that of the solid earth with oceans and land. It is trivial to show that the temperature of the real earth, 288 K ( 15 C) is what it is because of the RETENTION of heat byt hese oceans and soils. Sorry Will!

Jake J
February 9, 2018 4:03 pm

“The Conversation” is a useless site.

Patrick MJD
February 9, 2018 4:16 pm

More rubbish from the University of Queensland, again!

Skeptic
February 9, 2018 4:18 pm

The queensland cattle will have nothing left to eat with UofQ using up all the straw to create giant straw men

severalspeciesofsmallfurryanimals
February 9, 2018 4:56 pm

The argument is based on the false assumption that humans and fossils fuels are not natural.

s-t
Reply to  severalspeciesofsmallfurryanimals
February 9, 2018 7:07 pm

Either humans are out (of “nature”, which means “nature before humans”) and organic agriculture is not natural.
Or humans are in (part of “nature”), than what they do is also by definition, and gasoline, Roundup, biotech and fission are natural.

February 9, 2018 6:43 pm

The argument structure is something like this:
Premise one: The climate has changed in the past through natural processes
Premise two: The climate is currently changing
Conclusion: The climate is currently changing through natural processes.

The syntax conveys the impression that the argument is valid, but it is not.

If this is taught in a university course on critical thinking, UQ is in big trouble.
Nit pick: The “syntax” is simply whether it follows the rules of English sentence construction, and can convey nothing beyond the fact that the writer can write English sentences. Nitty picky, yes, but a lecturer in critical thinking should get it right because it matters in that very discipline.
Serious point 1: Let’s replace “syntax” with something that makes some sense of the passage, say, “argument form”. Well, no. It does not convey any impression of validity to anyone with a competent knowledge of logic. Consider:
Traffic lights have changed in the past from red to green.
That traffic light is changing.
Therefore it is changing from red to green.
Serious point 2: Climate skeptics do not make this argument anyway, they say it is up to the alarmists to provide evidence that the null hypothesis is false. The entire presentation slyly assumes that it is the job of the skeptic to disprove an unfounded claim.
Serious point 3: Straw man. This is not even one of the serious arguments advanced by skeptics. Amongst the main ones are:
A. If the theory were correct there would be a “hotspot”; there isn’t; therefore the theory is false.
B. If the theory were correct there would be more water in the troposphere; there isn’t; therefore the theory is false.
C. If the theory were correct there would be less radiation escaping to space; but there is actually more; therefore the theory is false.
Serious point 4: factual error: The climate has both warmed and cooled faster in the past than it is now.
All in all typical of what I have sadly come to expect from my (embarrassment!) alma mater.

s-t
February 9, 2018 6:51 pm

There are things children should not do. Accept candies and follow a stranger. Take scientific advice from an academic, or medical advice from a medical doctor in good standing with the board, or an ethical or constitutional advice from a lawyer approved by the American Bar Association.

February 9, 2018 8:38 pm

Current climate change is much more rapid than previous climate change – they are not the same phenomenon.

The phrase, “climate change” describes a category of change, where the category described does NOT change. The category is the category, like a cat is a cat, whether it was a cat that lived a thousand years ago or a cat that was just born after I put the period at the end of this sentence.
Qualifying climate change as “current” or “previous” is a secondary operation that delineates a different feature than the base categorical description. Speaking of “current climate change” and then asserting that this QUALIFIED category is “much more rapid” is itself an unproven statement begging the question (as someone above said), which the author is trying to use to substitute for the base category label, “climate change”.
In effect, the author is trying to use an unproven claim to qualify a base category label and then use this unproven, qualified category label as a replacement label for the original category label. In other words, the author is trying to replace “climate change” with “current climate change more rapid than previous climate change”. The latter is unproven, thus, he is trying to replace a general label with an unproven claim.
I, thus, call bullshit sophistry on this “strategy”. [Note the crescendo of scholarly elegance in my final sentence.]

Gary Ashe
February 10, 2018 6:01 am

Professor Cook co-writer, what can go wrong ?.
Climate change has had a dramatic effect on that un-employed cartoonists life in a decade, LWIR gold.

February 10, 2018 6:56 am

Ellerton’s representation makes a claim which arises repeatedly in the alarmist claims, namely that “the climate” is changing “faster” than it ever has in the past. What is glaringly absent from such claims is what is used to define “climate” and with that any meaningful measure of past rates of “change”. By “climate” does he mean windspeed, mean global precipitation, duration of growing seasons, or that most abused and foggy of metrics, “mean global temperature”? Since thermometers have existed only since the late 17th century, and contiguous monitoring of the temperatures at earth’s extremes such as the polar regions has only occurred since the international geophysical year in 1957, I am hard pressed to imagine how one would determine the rate of change that occurred in even one (very dubious) metric between say, for instance the height of the Roman warm period and the cooling that occurred prior to the rewarming known as the mediaeval warm period. The measurement tools necessary to obtain the degree of resolution required to make meaningful comparisons simply didn’t exist until the very recent past.

Reply to  David Fermor
February 10, 2018 9:13 am

Well, David F., I think that you have hit on something — namely that it is the vague use of the word, “climate”, that enables people to manipulate the definition of “climate CHANGE” any number of ways to suit their particular preferences/agendas.
Ellerton and friends show well how this is done — by trying to condition people’s minds to change the meaning of “climate change” in general to their specific meaning, “current climate change more unusual than at any time in the past” — which contains an unproven, or at best contested, claim.

Bob Weber
February 10, 2018 8:15 am

Just looked through their ‘paper’; they are the ones spreading misinformation, not skeptics.
It’s clear to me these people are so very good and clever at manipulation while being so misguided.

Reply to  Bob Weber
February 10, 2018 9:18 am

I don’t think that they are TRYING to be manipulative. I just think that they are very creative in crafting language to uphold the point of view that they have grown settled and comfortable with.
I believe that a lot of what we think is built on the equivalent of pure reflexes of the mind, and these “reflexes” latch onto any method available to sustain themselves. Reflexes are tough to retrain, as we all know.

shoehorn
February 10, 2018 12:59 pm

*Premise 2: we’re smarter than the average bear so there’s no sense considering non-human causes of miniscule warming.*

bh2
February 11, 2018 9:17 am

“Current climate change is much more rapid than previous climate change.”
An opinion unencumbered by any actual knowledge of geological history, or even written human history.
How do academics like this one survive their orals?

Charles Lyon
February 12, 2018 10:41 am

John Cook is the tip of the spear in the ongoing war on truth and science. His success is remarkable, given that his key arguments collapse completely and immediately under even mild scrutiny, as has been ably point out in comments here.
Cook et al 2013 misleadingly reported they sought to measure the scientific consensus on dominant AGW, but careful reading reveals that, instead, they included those who merely said, or even just implied, that AGW was more than zero, with no limit to how small. This shameless trickery established the complete lack of credibility of Cook, his co-authors, and the “journal” Environmental Reasearch Letters. It also demonstrated the fallibility of peer-review. It is sad, although no longer surprising, that someone entrusted to teach critical thinking would choose to join Cook as a comrade in arms in the war against truth and science.

goodspkr
February 14, 2018 9:36 am

“Premise one: The climate has changed in the past through natural processes
Premise two: The climate is currently changing at a more rapid rate than can be explained by natural processes
Conclusion: The climate is currently changing through natural processes.
This correction for ambiguity has resulted in a conclusion that clearly does not follow from the premises. The argument has become invalid once again.
We can restore validity by considering what conclusion would follow from the premises. This leads us to the conclusion:
Conclusion: Human (non-natural) activity is necessary to explain current climate change.
Or perhaps we should add one word to the premise. Premise two: The climate is currently changing at a more rapid rate than can be currently explained by natural processes Check up on Lord Kelvin and his estimate of the age of the earth (20-400 million year age)
http://apps.usd.edu/esci/creation/age/content/failed_scientific_clocks/kelvin_cooling.html

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