Quote of the Week – climate predictions edition

First let’s start with the compulsory quote from the late, great Yogi Berra, who famously said:

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

― Yogi Berra

In response to Eric Worrall’s article about Canadian Environment Minister Catherine McKenna predicting an “ice free” Canada

Canadian Environment Minister Catherine McKenna has demanded climate skeptic Hockey commentator Don Cherry think about all the children who might one day not be able to play outdoors on the ice in Canada.

There’s this response on Twitter by Andy worth repeating as quote of the week:

Climate predictions come in two types, those that failed to materialise and those that are yet to fail to materialise. So much fun.

I’m reminded of Al Gore’s ice free predictions that never came to pass.

Gore-Arctic-ice-gone-2014

Source: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2009/12/gore-new-study-sees-nearly-ice-free-arctic-summer-ice-cap-as-early-as-2014/1#.VbDxe9JVhBc

And since Catherine seems to think that we should turn to climate scientists, there’s this prediction by climate scientist Peter Wadhams that never happened.Even Gavin Schmidt thought it was bad and called him out on it.

gavin_wadham_tweet

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/07/24/an-alarmist-prediction-so-bad-even-gavin-schmidt-thinks-it-is-implausible/

 

Oh, and let’s not forget climate scientist David Viner, the father of climate snow and ice predictions who’s become a legend in failure, so much so that the newspaper removed the article about his massively failed prediction about UK climate.

snowfall-thing-of-the-past

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/12/one-of-the-longest-running-climate-prediction-blunders-has-disappeared-from-the-internet/

A few years later, the UK was almost entirely covered in snow:

The UK covered in snow, December 2nd, 2010 Image: NASA MODIS

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67 thoughts on “Quote of the Week – climate predictions edition

    • There has never been a disaster forecast of ANY kind, let alone a climate one, famine, running out of resources, nuclear holocaust, world’s cities buried to the second floor in horse poop-really that was a prediction before invention of the automobile by the guy who spawned all this at the turn of 19th Century, Thomas Malthus. It was a curse rather than a prediction because we just haven’t got rid of it in over two centuries. Studying this, I formulated it as an axiom that it was impossible on the basis of human scale energy employment to do other than localized temporary damage to the planet. Our worst – the bombing of Hiroshima: within less than a year, background radiation fell back to background levels and they rebuilt the city. Chernobyl – forcasts of thousands of deaths, (some 70 died – and all nuclear accidents since the 1950s don’t add up to ten more!) Babooshkas now in their 90s have been picking mushrooms in the “exclusion zone” since and, despite some mutations of smaller animals (since eaten by wolves who took up residence in the new forest), it is now the Serengeti Game Park of Europe!!! Of course you have to navigate through the meta data entrenched lefty click-mes, probably assisted by Google, to get the real news.

      https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/10/06/chernobyl-wildlife-haven/73431956/

    • If I am correct, Al Gore withdrew this statement after receiving Noble Prize jointly with IPCC — IPCC withdrew their conclusion on Himalayan Glaciers melt by 2035. When we raised this issue with ministry of environment, Pachauri observed this as voo-doo science but within days of climate gate expose IPCC withdrew this.

      But they didn’t return the money they got as Noble Prize.

      Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

      • It’s actually Nobel Prize. And after IPCC and Obama got it, there’s certainly not much noble about it I’m afraid. (But at least Norwegian police forces and border patrols kan cash in on a lot of mandatory extra man hours once a year….).

    • Those that have been predicted after they occurred?
      (IE Hurricane Harvey, Houston and Mann. His own, personal rabbit hole that only he can see.)

      • This should be spread with names and media references since they are real.
        There’s Viner, Ehrlich, Wadhams, some IPCC author, … but who are the rest?

    • No, they didn’t return the money Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy, did they.

      Which makes me ask: what-ever happened to the sexual abuse and harassment charges against the IPCC’s now ex-Chairman Pachauri? Did they let him get away with that as well?

    • Here is a dire prediction that did indeed come true.

      My co-authors and I wrote in 2002:

      “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”

      Since then, the misguided focus on global warming alarmism has caused society to squander many trillions of dollars of scarce global resources on foolish CO2 abatement programs that have driven up energy costs, reduced electric grid reliability, increased winter mortality, especially harmed the elderly and poor of the world, and diverted our attention and our resources from solving the real and pressing needs of humanity and the environment. That is the tragic legacy of false global warming alarmism.

      We are governed by scoundrels and imbeciles.

      Regards, Allan MacRae, P.Eng.

      Source:
      “Kyoto Accord”, PEGG debate, reprinted in edited form at their request by several other professional journals , The Globe and Mail and La Presse (in French), by Baliunas, Patterson and MacRae.
      http://www.apega.ca/members/publications/peggs/WEB11_02/kyoto_pt.htm
      http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/documents/KyotoAPEGA2002REV1.pdf

    • Me to True Climate Believer: “Yeah, they said there would be an end to snow”.
      Them: “That was just about Britain! And we don’t have as much snow!!!!”
      Me: They also said that about the Alps, then two years later, record snowfall…
      Them: LIAR!!!
      Me: Here, read this…
      Them: RIGHT-WING PROPAGANDA!!!
      Me: Um…its the Gruniad.
      Them: Stop making sense!!

      Oh, and this from the Telegraph this year: Could too much snow spell disaster for the ski season?

      Always best to cover the spread.

  1. Don Cherry might equally want to think about all those kids who might have to play indoors in Ice Caves under the advancing Wall of Ice in the return of the North American Glaciation. (some day).

    Mike Carroccetto

    • Add this malapropism …

      “New computer modeling suggests … “.

      ANYTHING following that preamble may or may not be TRUE. Because … sorry to say … a computer model is. NOT. science. A computer model has NOTHING WHATSOEVER TO DO WITH SCIENCE!!! It is a statistical extrapolation. The MANIPULATION of data is NOT science … whether it is manipulated by the government’s SUPER computer … or by pencil and paper. And sad pictures of emaciated polar bears is NOT science … it’s propaganda and MISinformation.

    • It is, in fact, an old Danish proverb:

      “Det er vanskeligt at spaa, især naar det gælder Fremtiden.”

      As such, its use has been attributed to the Danish physicist, Neils Bohr, although there is no evidence that he first coined it. More recently, various claims have been made for an American attribution (in particular, with respect to Mark Twain, Samuel Goldwyn and Yogi Berra). There is no corroborating evidence for any of these claims.

      The Yogi Berra attribution is particularly alluring because of Berra’s notoriety for stating malapropisms, tautologies and logical absurdities. For example, he is quoted as saying, “I really didn’t say everything I said”. If he didn’t actually say this, then it is the wisest remark he never made.

    • Maybe not in this case, as other people have noted. Nonetheless, Casey got a kick out of bouncing many of his best lines off Yogi.

  2. I like Andy’s quote.
    Reminiscent of the great Alan “Yabby” Jeans’ comment – “there are two types of coach. Ones who have been sacked and ones who are going to get sacked.”

    • I like the quote attributed to the late, great Montreal Canadiens coach, Toe Blake who, when asked if he thought the team might win the Stanley Cup replied “Predictions are for Gypsies”.

    • Adding still more fun, you can predict what climate predictions will predict before they predict them. The same applies to the research results from the CAGW team.

    • Also reminiscent of my hone area of Lancashire where they used to say: If you can’t see the hills it’s raining. If you can see the hills it’s going to rain.

  3. As a longtime WEATHER forecaster, I saw verification (or lack thereof) not long after forecast issuance. I’ve made some climate forecasts in a few threads here, and I regret I won’t be around to see whether I was right or not in 2040-2050 and beyond. But, at least I’m using some history and common sense in my climate-casts, as opposed to the long-ranger fraudsters who know they won’t be around to be called wrong, as many of these so-called scientists just wish to conveniently misuse science to further their political agendas. To be fair, some scientists actually DO believe in AGW and even CAGW, and I even know several. These folks feel that they are acting for the public good, but I’m sure even they are relieved they won’t face the eventual gauntlet of verification and possible ridicule.

    For those who missed it (and judging from your responses, it was 99.999% of you!), I am calling for slight to no significant cooling through 2045, then neutral or slight warming from 2045 to 2080, then more noticeable cooling from 2085 to 2120, with the 22nd century seeing more significant cooling especially in the 2150-2200 period. Somebody please yell down in 2200 and tell me how I did. Although, I might be pretty warm at that point.

    For the record, I personally think they’ll be playing winter ice hockey outdoors in Canada for hundreds and thousands of years into the future.

    • they’ll be playing winter ice hockey outdoors in Canada for hundreds and thousands of years into the future.

      Until it goes back below the Laurentide ice sheet.

    • The climate will cool down to half a degree less than the past 15 years by 2030 while global anomalies will be the highest ever. All that heat will add more moisture to the air so that the Summer Arctic ice extent it as large as it was in the 70s.

  4. “One of the most surprising things to me, is how one soothsayer could look another in the face without laughing.” Cato

    • That could well apply to the whole batch of warmist-elite climategaters nowadays, especially if giggling like Beavis and Butthead is considered laughing.

  5. Climate Barbie tweets: “But Don Cherry might want to think about all those kids who might not have outdoor rinks to play on some day.”

    Given how this government works this could happen if they ban outdoor rinks. Maybe they are not safe or inclusive enough? I’m sure they could think of something.

  6. What is this obsession they have with winter sports? …..If it’s not the snow skiing industry…now it’s ice skating

  7. This ought to be a serious topic at the frontiers of the debate.
    However, the alarmists haven’t yet cottoned on to the idea that to achieve credibility they need to make good precise predictions that can be properly tested in ~2 decades time against a factual database that is seen as being untampered with.

    …But they give us either linguistically-vague predictions, and/or data that is readjusted every time you turn your back. It isn’t science.

    It was, once, close to real science, but they chose the route of politics and the funding that politics brought. I’m a forgiving person. If climate science wants to be seen again as a true science then they need to clean out the stables now, and re-apply to be taken seriously in 20 years time. And I would grant a full amnesty for all miscreants.

    • I predict that as long as there is other peoples’ money to spend climate change disasters will continue to be predicted.

    • I’m not so forgiving. I would demand that the miscreants be purged from the system. Better yet, I would want them to return all their ill-gotten gains. But I’m not so ignorant of their ways to expect either to actually happen.

  8. If we know exactly how global warming works, then can’t we take all the conditions from 30 years ago to predict today?

    Then go back 40 to predict 10 years ago and compare.

    Then go back 50 to predict 20 years ago and compare.

    And so on?

    • That’s how it might work in an ideal universe of unbiased scientists. But which data-sets are they now supposed to use? Data that pertained for much of the past? Or the data-sets that they changed as they went along because the data wasn’t doing what they expected? They are lost.

      The field is corrupted almost beyond belief, because they get to change the data when they don’t like it. A synthetic chemist accepts that yesterdays experiment failed, gets back on his/her horse, and tries a different experiment. That’s how science worked when I was taught it.

  9. Its rather fun watching warmunist arguments implode while their hads explode.. No accelerating SLR. Polar bears thriving. Trump pulls out of Paris (in my opinion not agressively enough, see previous comments). South Australia blackouts caused by overpenetration of renewables. This is just a pile,on. Keep piling on.

  10. For Canadian children in the future, the greatest danger of ice will be skating to close to the edge of the ice sheet.

  11. REAL science makes accurate predictions based on real data, correct modelling and valid models. If there is even one significant error in the data, modelling or methodology of a theory, it is back to the drawing board. This is why so few theories pass the test of time. Rather strange that the relatively new and highly complex “science” of climate can be regarded as comprehensively proved so quickly.
    Catastrophic anthropogenic global warming theory has more holes than a hooker’s fishnet stockings. No wonder the badly flawed theory has been unable to get even a single prediction correct. Zero% success rate can hardly be called settled science that is beyond scrutiny. ONLY liars and those with something to hide behave like this.
    The predictions are so bad, exactly the opposite is more likely. What we should be doing is to read the forecasts of doom and gloom and bet on the exact opposite coming true. Thus, if there are claims the Northwest passage will open and the arctic ice all melt, allowing oil drilling, short sell the shares of companies that want to invest here. They will find they get caught up in the ice and their rigs destroyed. Profit from their stupidity by short selling selling their stock.

  12. Impact on winter tourism of climate change will be due to temperature and snowfall, but these will be much LESS of an impact than changes in:

    Population
    Income
    Lifestyle
    Aging

    IPCC AR 5 Working Group 2.
    If you’re gong to tweet Ms McKenna, could you at least tweet the facts?

  13. Climate predictions come in two types, those that failed to materialise and those that are yet to fail to materialise. …….. that is priceless.

  14. McKenna says: “… For hockey you can turn to Coach’s Corner if you want, for climate change, Canadians turn to scientists. …”

    What a wonderful and insightful observation. Especially since we have so many Hockey Stick scientists!

  15. “Think of the children” is such classic Warmunist demogoguery. They just can’t help themselves, can they?

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