System likely to produce a layer cake from hell frozen over.
Dr. Ryan Maue of weather.us has been watching the development of forecasts for a new major winter storm that is likely to pound the U.S. East Coast and Northeast/New England States Friday and Saturday. He writes:
Tropical moisture feed ahead of developing major winter storm will provide huge rainfall atop any frozen ground in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast into Saturday. Bad!
“Bad” in this case may equate to blizzard like conditions with heavy rain over frozen ground and snow, making for a real mess. Just look at the amount of precipitable water ahead of the system:
Here is the precipitation amounts from 6Z to 12Z on Saturday. That translates to East Coast times from Friday night to Saturday morning:
As you can see, snow will follow behind the liquid precip as cold air advects in behind the front and low, this means a layered mess is likely, with frozen ground, then rain on that , which will refreeze, then snow on top of that. It’s like a layer cake from hell frozen over.
At least the timing avoids the Friday evening rush hour in major east coast cities. Let’s hope the system does not speed up.
Forecasting another Trump weather tweet on Good Old Global Warming.
😂
Most models project the worst will go east of us Hoosiers but Joe Bastardi at , https://www.weatherbell.com/ who’s correct most of the time, is saying he believes the worst will be in IL and IN. And it’s not just going to be a snow storm. A blast of very cold, very likely colder than any we’ve seen here in Indiana for quite some time, will come behind the storm. I quote Joe: “I would not be surprised if some the outlying areas of Illinois and Indiana that get hammered by this snow storm hit 20 or 25 deg, below zero one of those nights behind it. Because this is a real classic setup for that type of situation” At this time the storm is forecast to start Friday night and go on well into Saturday. Thus early next week we’re in for a very hard freeze again. The good news is a big warm up will follow this storm and the following extreme cold. We may even see 60 deg. F a few days after the cold gets pushed out!
For once I hope the models are right. Besides, massive snow followed by extreme cold along the I-95 corridor makes for much better copy than when it happens in “fly over country”. Storms out east or in California are always worse don’t you know.
Joe Bastardi reportedly said:
“I would not be surprised if some the outlying areas of Illinois and Indiana that get hammered by this snow storm hit 20 or 25 deg, below zero one of those nights behind it.”
Joe B, Joe d’Aleo and their colleagues at WeatherBell usually get it right. That is in part because they routinely use analogues of past weather in their forecasting process, in addition to weather computer models.
It dropped to about minus 27C in Calgary last night but is rapidly warming up today and Saturday. Not that bad – I forgot my winter jacket yesterday but always keep a spare in the truck – never had to put it on – not much wind.
Joe B’s forecast minus 25F is about minus 32C which is starting to get dangerously cold – even for Canadians and Minnesotans.
So here is what you need to know about extreme cold, from someone who has worked outdoors at 40 below and colder (“mercury only”, not counting the wind chill, which can make it effectively much colder). Minus 40C and minus 40F are the same temperature, but you are so cold you don’t really care – you are just trying to survive..
First, stay on main roads – this is not the time to go exploring. Nevertheless, assume you may get stranded off-road. Keep extra winter parkas and snow pants and boots in your vehicle for all passengers, as well as large blankets. Include candles and matches to warm the vehicle interior.
Be sure your cell phone is charged. Fill up your gas tank. Make sure your vehicle exhaust system is in good shape – you don’t want to die from carbon monoxide poisoning. Take some water. Don’t eat the yellow snow.
Stay with your vehicle and try to keep warm – once you get hypothermic you become really stupid (kind of like the average warmist on a warm day). All you want to do is lie down on the ground and sleep – not your best move.
I recently retired after 16 years on the Board of Directors of the largest homeless shelter in North America – we sleep about 1300 people per night and serve about 1.5 free meals per year. Every year in Canadian cities, despite our efforts, some homeless guys freeze to death.
Contrary to warmist hype, cool and cold weather kills 20 times more people worldwide than warm and hot weather – that is the reality. Earth is colder-than-optimum for human survival, and moderate global warming (IF it occurs) would be beneficial for both humanity and the environment.
Regards to all – let’s be careful out there.
– Allan in Calgary.
Reference:
COLD WEATHER KILLS 20 TIMES AS MANY PEOPLE AS HOT WEATHER, September 4, 2015
by Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
Most of the articles on storminess appear , by my haphazard browsing , to be about tropical cyclones.
North Atlantic storms have however been investigated by P Mayewski and colleagues at the Climate Change Institute at the U of Maine. Their papers are referred to by researchers looking for detailed climate change reasons for the demise of the Norse settlements in Greenland at the beginning of the 15th Cent . This is a period when salt residues in GISP2 ice cores suddenly increase, suggesting a sudden increase in sub polar and NA storms , just at the start of the cooling period aka Little Ice Age.
Unfortunately the papers are paywalled , but from the abstracts the storminess appears after short periods of rapid changes in both warming and cooling of the Arctic . Any further or more enlightened information would be appreciated.
Stay warm folks…
…and reflect it is still climate change dumping the cold on the US.
Up in the arctic it is warmer than average and the sea ice extent is again in record low territory (as is thickness)
“Up in the arctic it is warmer than average ”
A sizzling 247K. I can hear the ice in its death struggle as it desperately tries not to melt in those ‘warm’ -15F temps.
“sea ice extent is again in record low territory”
What exactly is ‘record low territory’?
The antarctic is not.
Apologised yet, Griff[snip]?
[Please just use the usernames as chosen by our commenters. No need to modify them into an insult. -mod]
“…and reflect it is still climate change dumping the cold on the US…”
No. It isn’t. That is a relatively-recent claim made to match the inconvenient observations.
“…Up in the arctic it is warmer than average and the sea ice extent is again in record low territory (as is thickness)…”
Aside from some specific periods in time, the same can be said for the past what…22,000+ years?
And not all of the man-made losses are due to greenhouse gases. You should know this by now.
Opps! Looks like I did it again. The following post is from Winter 2015-16.
You know us Canadians – always apologizing. Sorry, sorry, sorry.
I’m not!
Call this “a learning experience” – and I’m going to keep teaching it until you Eastern dopes finally get it.
BTW, “manmade global warming” does NOT cause major cooling, except in the minds of scoundrels and imbeciles.
Watch out for slips and falls. Let’s be careful out there.
[Must I really say “sarc/off”?]
*************************************************
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/12/record-cold-single-digit-to-subzero-valentines-day-expected-for-much-of-usa/comment-page-1/#comment-2144217
Sorry – I was having a really bad day when I wrote this last month.
I was tired of all the “”warmest year evah!!!” alarmist nonsense during an El Nino. So I called down the cold on you Eastern warmists…
Now I feel really, like, totally, I mean, y’know, bad.
I won’t do this again. Promise.
Apologies, Allan
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/22/friday-funny-probable-cause/comment-page-1/#comment-2126823
OK – enough!
I’ve had it with you Eastern warmists.
So in February, I’m calling down some brutally frigid winter weather on you.
Mark you calendars and get out your long woollies…
Allan
Can you call down goals for Bristol City in the British soccer “Championship” (second division)?
Hi ptolomy.
Years ago I spent an afternoon drinking beer at Ceilidh’s in Calgary with two UK army guys who were Manchester City fans. Man U was the big team then, and I had not even heard of Man City – but we drank a toast (or many) to their good fortune – and they have done quite well of late… 🙂
Seriously, I wish you and Bristol City well in the upcoming Championship, but I have little skill when it comes to influencing sports outcomes – otherwise our two Calgary football teams (Professional and University) would not have lost both the Grey Cup and the Mitchell Bowl in 2017… “and the pain was tremendous”.
My very best wishes to Bristol and that pub-for-short-men down by the docks – the Llandoger Trow. We met my wife’s uncle there in 1990, me at 6’3 and my son at 6’8, and he told us of his glider flight into Holland in 1944, part of Operation Market Garden, immortalized in the book and movie “A Bridge Too Far”. He told us how his unit crept past nearby German troops during a heavy rainstorm so they could take their positions as ordered, and showed us aerial photos of his landed glider – I recall the curved line made by the “keel” of the glider as it skidded to a halt in a field.
So, win or lose, I ask you to drop by the Llandoger Trow after the game, and hoist a pint to those courageous men from Bristol and area who made that perilous flight in wooden gliders, landing in the dark in occupied enemy territory.
Best, Allan
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Llandoger_Trow
The Llandoger Trow is a historic public house in Bristol, south-west England. Dating from 1664, it is on King Street, between Welsh Back and Queen Charlotte Street, near the old city centre docks. … The pub is said to have inspired Robert Louis Stevenson to write of the Admiral Benbow Inn in Treasure Island and Daniel Defoe supposedly met Alexander Selkirk there, his inspiration for Robinson Crusoe.
Post Script:
Canada sheltered future Queen Juliana and her family from 1940 to 1945 during the Nazi occupation of the Netherlands. On January 19, 1943, Princess Margriet was born at the Ottawa Civic Hospital. A suite in the hospital was temporarily declared to be extraterritorial by the government of Canada, so that Princess Margriet’s citizenship would be solely influenced by her parents’ Dutch citizenship.
The First Canadian Army liberated Holland in 1944-45. More than 7,600 Canadian soldiers, sailors and airmen died fighting in the Netherlands.
In 1945, the Dutch royal family sent 100,000 tulip bulbs to Ottawa. Now, every spring, Ottawa hosts the Canadian Tulip festival – with several million bulbs, it claims to be the largest in the world.
.
OK – One week from today I’m going to hit North American with another really cold day.
This is another “learning experience” for all you scoundrels and imbeciles who still subscribe to “the myth of runaway global warming”.
BTW the myth is false. You will begin to gain an understanding – about the time your twins freeze off.
Soon you will undergo a remarkable transformation from “someone who THINKS global warming is true” to “someone who WISHES global warming were true”.
The polar vortex forecast shows a severe winter attack in North America.
http://pics.tinypic.pl/i/00954/upe1yizfmt9c.png
So you are saying I need to be sure my generator is ready and I have enough gas for the upcoming weekend.
Or spend that gas money on a road trip to Orlando.
The polar vortex forecast shows a severe winter attack in North America.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2018/01/15/0600Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-99.15,81.40,342
There is a good chance that the El Nino 3.4 index will fall to -1,5 degree C in January.
Time to go long in Peruvian fishmeal.
“Time to go long in Peruvian fishmeal.”
Polar vortex pattern at a height of about 45 km in the stratosphere.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z01_nh_f00.png
Such a pressure distribution bodes for snowstorms in the northeast of the US.
http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/North_America/gfs_cape_usa72.png
Interesting.. the local forecasts I’m seeing for MetroBoston have the temperature in the 50s and rain Friday/Saturday then back to around freezing Sunday, but no further precipitation.
The biggest hazards from that will be street flooding — rainfall and snow melt with no place to go. and then ice when it all freezes again on Sunday.
Geez – we just now got rid of the snow (central Virginia). 🙁
As The Norwegians say, there is no bad weather, only bad clothing.