Climate explainers are struggling trying to tell us why it is all our fault that bitter cold is gripping the USA this winter, our fault that winters have grown colder in Europe and the USA over the last 25 years.
Why So Cold? Climate Change May Be Part of the Answer
By HENRY FOUNTAINJAN. 3, 2018
As bitter cold continues to grip much of North America and helps spawn the fierce storm along the East Coast, the question arises: What’s the influence of climate change?
…
The reason a direct connection between cold weather and global warming is still up for debate, scientists say, is that there are many other factors involved. Ocean temperatures in the tropics, soil moisture, snow cover, even the long-term natural variability of large ocean systems all can influence the jet stream.
“I think everyone would agree that potentially the warming Arctic could have impacts on the lower latitudes,” said Rick Thoman, climate services manager with the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, Alaska. “But the exact connection on the climate scale is an area of active research.”
But scientists have been puzzled by data that at first seems counterintuitive: Despite an undeniable overall year-round warming trend, winters in North America and Europe have trended cooler over the past quarter-century.
“We’re trying to understand these dynamic processes that lead to cold winters,” Ms. Kretschmer said
She is the lead author of a study published last fall that looked at four decades of climate data and concluded that the jet stream — usually referred to as the polar vortex this time of year — is weakening more frequently and staying weaker for longer periods of time. That allows cold air to escape the Arctic and move to lower latitudes. But the study focused on Europe and Russia.
“The changes in very persistent weak states actually contributed to cold outbreaks in Eurasia,” Ms. Kretschmer said. “The bigger question is how this is related to climate change.”
…
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/03/climate/cold-climate-change.html
Settled science anyone?
My biggest problem with these in my opinion nonsensical explanations is that they require belief that we used to inhabit a perfect magic optimum.
This theory falls apart with any kind of close examination. Pre-industrial winters, especially during the Little Ice Age, were often brutally cold.
The current trend to colder winters could simply be a fluctuation of natural forcings. But if natural forcings can so easily overwhelm the alleged anthropogenic CO2 climate control knob, is the CO2 forcing really that powerful? Questions might be asked about whether the science really is as settled as proponents claim.
So climate explainers try to relate every unexpected temperature excursion back to our sinful industrial emissions.
If winters continue to cool, as they have cooled for the last 25 years, my guess is climate explainers will have to work ever harder to maintain the confidence of their dwindling audience of true believers.
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Don’t you understand? Black is white and white is black! You just have to look at the problem exactly the same way that we do and you will immediately see that we are right as always.
I like the prediction that hurricanes will be more frequent and more intense after Katrina
After the 10-12 pause in hurricanes, it has now become
Hurricanes will be less frequent but more intense
Here in Toronto, we had a greater-than-average spring run off, and some local flooding along the Lake Ontario shore.
Climate change, of course. Here’s the science in this model that clearly predicts MORE moisture. Please give us billions to fight climate change.
Now, just rewind the tape there a few years:
We had a less-than-average spring run off, and the Apocalypse was among us. They’d have to dredge the channels to keep the lakers from being left high and dry, and the recreational boating industry was going to be devastated because people’s docks were too far from the water (no, really, it was a thing).
Climate change, of course. Here’s the science in this model that clearly predicts LESS moisture. Please give us billions to fight climate change.
Repeat as needed.
It seems that everyone understands what is meant by the word climate. A commonly held definition would be helpful.
I think Climate and Climate change, mean different things to different people. For some, it’s whatever fits their narrative.
“Climate” is weather that fits the alarmists’ predictions; the remaining 99.9% of weather is “just weather.”
(Eric . .
“It seems that everyone understands what is meant by the word climate.”
. . Oh Qweeksdraw, I try to tell ju, but ju no wanna leeson ; )
*Climate Alarm Explainers: Colder Winters – Because Climate Change*
See? No decoder ring needed ; )
“Climate.” They keep saying this word. I think it does not mean what they think it means.
Left
when white is black
and black is white
Who calls Up
which Down is
right
Little Boy Blue’s a big girl now.
“Must a name mean something?” Alice asks Humpty Dumpty, only to get this answer: “When I use a word… it means just what I choose it to mean – neither more nor less.”
I always think of this quote whenever the climate alarmists start changing the meaning of the labels they use so as to still remain operative.
The rest of the story, the rest of the quotation is revealing. “The question is,” said Humpty Dumpty, “which is to be master—that’s all.”
It’s not even that; it’s the fact that if CO2 was really the culprit, then temperatures would, logically, be increasing EQUALLY EVERYWHERE, since CO2 is distributed equally everywhere; but it’s the OPPOSITE, with temperatures VARYING more than ever, which speaks AGAINST a greenhouse-cause.
Of course AGW is a self-fulfilling sophistry, whose prime directive is “EVERYTHING proves AGW is real;” and so naturally logic need not apply, since a cult has two fundamental components of 1) a dogma that is not to be questioned, and 2) the “infidels” who question the dogma.
Naturally, this is ANTI-science; but the dogma says it’s science, so if you tell the truth then you’re a “denialist” infidel, and therefore the enemy.
They are just making it up as they go along. All credibility has been lost.
There is an expression that describes their policy on AGW in full.
N.F.I.
Yup.
“Old44 January 3, 2018 at 6:58 pm
There is an expression that describes their policy on AGW in full.
N.F.I.”
New Funding Idea?
Unfortunately no I seem to find that more people especially the young believe absolutely. Even if we went into a Little Ice Age again they would not waver.
The sun on the meadow is summery WARMER.
Agreed Joe. My son was livid when I discuss climate change. It is very emotional to them and logical questions do not matter.
Joe D Banks
An iPsos Modi poll held in the UK found the average perception of how much of the UK is paved over is 46%.
The reality is, it’s around 0.1%.
With such wildly inaccurate understanding of the world around them, it’s no wonder the climate shepherds can round up the gullible sheeple.
Oversimplified dogma (Is there any other kind?) is a most powerful propaganda tool that almost always results in a calamity that is opposite to that which is dogmatized. This really is planet Earth where there is an absolute natural reality and there is only one version of natural reality. Dogmatic propaganda does nothing to change any of the many natural truths of which that one reality is formed. But it can lead “true believers” down a primrose path and over a cliff.
@HotScot
While the 46% average perception is undoubtedly wrong, the 0.1% figure quoted is just as dubious. The list of land uses excluded from the definition of ‘continuous urban fabric’, on which the 0.1% figure was based, is quite extensive, as evident from:
http://www.w3.org/2015/03/corine
The only thing either of those numbers proved is that people are bad at estimation.
HotScot, that’s what happens when you talk to city dwellers about the environment.
They tend to assume that the entire world looks like the city they were raised in.
DaveS, the question was about land that was paved over. Not land that has been modified by man.
MarkW
If you find the original source, the 0.1% figure comes from the ‘continuous urban land’ fraction. Which excludes a lot of things.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-42554635
From which:
“The 0.1% figure for what is designated “continuous urban fabric” (CUF)”
and
“Land is designated as CUF under the Corine Land Cover Classification System if over 80% of ground is covered by artificial surfaces like buildings and roads. “
Reply to DaveS
Can’t really tell much (statistically) from the BBC link.
If the study is based on individual properties (rather than actual area) it seems that the 0.1% figure is an average of an average ….
If they are counting the “CUF” as 100% impervious (instead of 80%) then they are actually providing a conservative impervious area guess, at 0.1%.
Either way, the impervious area is tiny. And with respect to perception of the average walking drone, it doesn’t matter if reality is 0.1% or 1%.
There is no science in what has been posted. Speculation, all the way down.
On top of turtles…
On top of models, RS.
Hey Rocketscientist, I like your Sturgill Simpson reference.
The Other Brad
Maybe there are elephants in there, too . . .
Auto – with a heartfelt thanks to Terry P – wonderful humour.
“The reason a direct connection between cold weather and global warming is still up for debate, …”
Perhaps because there’s no warming due to CO2 emissions and what is perceived as warming is just the consequence of natural variability and confirmation bias. The cooler winters more likely signal that the planet is returning to it’s more natural colder state. After all, we are exceptionally lucky to be living in a time of transient warmth and the last 10k years or so of a stable, warm climate was the trigger for the rise of civilization.
The “BNRW” period
“Beneficial Natural Regional Warming”
Thanks to the strong sun last half half of last century, and the rising AMO.
Both gone now 🙁
What is perceived as warming is more likely the result of a lot of adjustments to the temperature record.
My thought exactly, adjustments and homogenization. They just do a better job of masking things in Summer than winter. Of course, there is no white global warming dust in summer which could cause people to disbelieve an overzealous set of adjustments.
Yes, if they could succeed in depressing the freezing point of water, they would do so.
100%. When max temps are ‘adjusted’ upwards or taken from carefully selected sites where UHI is high but not fully taken account of in ‘adjustments’ then there will inevitably appear a growing discrepancy between summer max and winter min.
Not too hard to understand the reason – but impossible for a warmist to accept without heads exploding ……..
co2isnotevil >>“The reason a direct connection between cold weather and global warming is still up for debate, …”
Because AGW confuses absence of knowledge, with knowledge of absence; and so they think “debate” is just disagreeing BASED on that absence.
In reality, if the only independent variable is increased heat overall, then the First and Second Laws of Thermodyamics PRECLUDE lower temperatures in the same area; because 1) total energy INCREASES everywhere, and 2) heat always flows to a cooler surface.
Rather, while I hate to accuse opponents of mental illness, due to ad hominem factors, this is highly symptomatic of “Flat Earth” mentality, whereby the person cannot maintain consistency between separate points of the same argument, and therefore they are end up contradicting themselves.
For example, they say that melting ice lowers temperatures” due to the absorbtion of energy; but they ignore that this raises the NET energy of the system, and so they are able to COMPARTMENTALIZE their thinking in an inconsistent manner.
Indeed, I’ve noticed that the AGW crowd shares many patterns with the Flat Earth’ers in terms of being unable to logically relate core-concepts of the argument, and being convinced they’re right because they lack this ability.
And “The changes in very persistent weak states actually contributed to cold outbreaks in Eurasia,” Ms. Kretschmer said. “The bigger question is how this is related to climate change.” is not the question.
The question is: How is this all related to CO2?
“The question is: How is ANY of this related to CO2?”
Answer…
ITS NOT !!
Cold winters are weather, warm summers are climate. Come on people get with program!!! Lol.
It’s related to money. There’s massive investment bucks banking on a steady stream of “nonsensical explanations” to keep the meme alive. Green energy, water, and corporatized agriculture investments; not to mention carbon taxes are at stake here
Could someone please name the “very persistent weak states”? Albania? Poland? Swaziland? Crimea? That is a puzzling locution, and it is hard to envision which particular changes are meant: changes in government? Ruling party? Popular sports teams? Gasoline usage? Etc. Vagueness beyond hope.
John M. Ware,
“Vagueness beyond hope.”
Eureka!
The CAGW motherlode [is that too sexist? Sorry.]
Parentlode. [Or is that kids?].
Explains the climate [as defined, possibly not – ahh, exactly – as observed]; the EU [as observed, if not as having its Budgets approved or signed off] and also – perhaps – love.
I would bank on love.
Rare – but lovely.
Auto
Al Gore, Globalization, Radical Islam, Liberalism, Communism, Congress, Senate, Presidents, United Nations, Despots, Dictators, Fake News, Dishonest People and people who aren’t paying attention. Just a few of my least favorite things that are tied to Global Warming. Let’s be honest, you can put lipstick on a pig, but its still a pig.
Try sticking a china pig ornament in your front window if you live in certain streets in Birmingham, UK and you will be arrested for hate crime. It only a very small step for this level of control to be extended to being arrested for talking Anti-AGW. Just needs one EU country to start the ball rolling, I’m betting on France.
Is it still illegal, or hateful or racist, to fly a Union Jack outside ones home in the UK? Beginning to get that way here in Australia too.
In Europe it’s already beyond that point.You guys self censor hoping to win their love. A thousand years of culture abandoned in a couple of decades. The fervor of fighting CAGW is a transference and diversion from worrying about real existential matters. By 2050 climate will be dead and gone along with the Mona Lisa, Shakespeare, Pubs… The Trafalgar monument and others will be pulled over and obliterated by your neo-left revisionists before their own conversion.
I read where Macron of France wants to stop “hate speech” on social media. I assume Macron is the one who decides what is hate speech and what is not.
I read where German newspapers are complaining about the level of government censorship imposed on free speech by the German government.
Free speech is just about dead, except in the good ole USA, although the Leftist/Totalitarians are trying their best to introduce censorship in the USA, too.
That’s the problem with “hate speech”: It takes someone to define it, and too bad if you don’t agree with them.
Instead of imposing censorship on “hate speech” the Europeans should do as the U.S. Supreme Court says and fight “hate speech” with speech that counters the hate speech. That way everyone gets their say, and those who are spreading hate will be exposed for what they are.
That’s not enough control for Totalitarians, though.
“The answer to speech that disturbs is more speech, not less”
‘Sherri Tepper’, from memory
Don’t forget that in many of our nations we have a governing class that consists of a high percentage of egomaniac career shysters. Just look at the percentage who are career shysters among the denizens of “The Swamp” in that strange little self-worshiping foreign country that’s called The District of Columbia.
R. I. P., Uncle Shyster.
thomasjk
Is DJT putting a wall round the Beltway?
If not – why not?
Then, cut off supplies of anything except P>J> O’Rourke texts to those inside.
OK, one or two others.
Who is the Canadian who is suing the gluteus maximus off the celebrated and be-ribboned Mick. E. Mann, multiple crochet medallist?
Auto
“There… Are… Four… Lights!”
Cold in North America is not new.
Alberta Clippers, Manitoba Maulers, Saskatchewan Screamers,
Polar Outbreaks, and so on
February 1899: The Worst Cold Snap in North American History
from Britannica Blog
“Cold in North America is not new.”
I agree. I don’t recall *any* winter (and I’ve seen many) when a cold arctic front didn’t come down into the United States and sit around for a few weeks, at some time during the winter. Nothing unusual to see here.
This cold snap will move on out of the U.S. and in a few weeks we will be hearing about how abnormally warm it is in the Eastern U.S., as the jetstream moves out the cold and moves in the warm.
Cold or warm depends on what side of the jetstream you happen to be on. At the present time, those on the West Coast are on the warm side of the jetstream and those on the East Coast are on the cold side.
Imagine the jetstream is a sine-wave-shaped structure that rotates around the Northern Hemisphere as though it were a solid mass sometimes. This sine wave jetstream structure constantly moves from west to east and as it does it brings a certain part of this sine wave to your area and you are either warm or cold depending on your orientation to it.
Jet streams are a fascinating subject. I finally figured out how the weather works (generally) when I learned about the jet stream from my local meteorologists, one in particular: Gary Shore. Once I realized the jet streams were the major controller of the local weather, it finally made sense.
Now I’ve got Nullschool and can watch the jet stream every day. I haven’t been watching long enough to note any particular patterns other than what I outlined above. So far, it just looks like organized chaos circled by a sine wave jet stream.
Is there a post I missed showing winters have been getting colder the last 25 years? I spent 11 of those in New Jersey and winters were all over the place. Some warmer than others, but all colder than where I grew up in Georgia, as would be expected. But I don’t remember seeing anything about winters getting colder. What’d I miss?
I agree, here in Wisconsin my observation over the decades has been that winters are getting milder. So are the summers by the way. This cold snap hasn’t gotten down to minus ten yet. Minus twenty is something I remember from the ’60s and ’70s.
Here’s a chart I put up on these boards the other day:
http://oi66.tinypic.com/bbjue.jpg
Wisconsin was in the negative teens just last week – what are you talking about?
Thanks Steve for the top graph .
That shows clearly that the temperature in the summer months was warmer in the 1930s and into the 1940s and anyone can see that it cooled in the late 60s and the 70s .
This is a known fact and the same warm temperatures were recorded in many countries around the world .
Yes winters have been a little milder but that could be about to change .
The other point which is worth noting is that the satellite measuring of temperature started right at the lowest point for winter temperatures and 1975 was the lowest point for summer temperatures .
It has been pointed out many times that if you start a record from a cold period that even a blind mann can show excessive warming and it has been pointed out many times that the 40 years leading up to 1940 shows almost the same rate of warming as 1979 to present,
Thanks for this Steve. Your graphs mirror findings in the UK where (see a multitude of graphs on Paul Homewood’s notalotofpeopleknowthat site) there seems to be little trend in maximum figures but a slight upward trend in minimum figures, especially in the winters. So, notwithstanding the significant noise called “the British weather”, in general, winters seem slightly less harsh. Nobody could sensible argue that has been a bad thing. As an aside, if there is an explanation as to why the magic molecule CO2 causes higher minimum, but not maximum, temperatures, I would love to hear it.
The trend line in the bottom graph us an obvious nonsense. There is clearly a slight declining trend from 1930 through 1980, then a flip to a rising trend with a new “baseline.
Or perhaps a sinusoidal line would fit better.
Can anyone determine if that “flip” would be the late-1970’s Pacific discontinuity?
I commented on a recent WUWT post that in the 20 years to 2016 across the contiguous United States, the average max was cooler in the second decade (2007-2016) than in the first decade (1997-2006) by 0.03F while min was 0.1F cooler in 2007-2016 than 1997-2006. That’s based on annuals presented by NOAA (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/).
That’s also despite 1997 being just before the 1998 ENSO shift and having a US mean temperature 1.4F cooler than the 1998-2006 mean, but not sufficiently cool to make the decadal average cooler than 2007-2016.
This post about cold winters prompted me to look at NOAA’s US temps in monthly rather than annual trends.
Min
Jan 1997-2006 23.17
Jan 2007-2016 21.21 Down 1.96
Feb 1997-2006 25.65
Feb 2007-2016 23.65 Down 2.0
Mar 1997-2006 31.53
Mar 2007-2016 32.35 Up 0.82
Apr 1997-2006 39.64
Apr 2007-2016 39.32 Down 0.32
May 1997-2006 48.39
May 2007-2016 48.39 No change
Jun 1997-2006 56.45
Jun 2007-2016 57.49 Up 1.04
Jul 1997-2006 61.88
Jul 2007-2016 61.95 Up 0.07
Aug 1997-2006 60.28
Aug 2007-2016 60.59 Up 0.31
Sep 1997-2006 52.90
Sep 2007-2016 54.76 Up 1.86
Oct 1997-2006 42.24
Oct 2007-2016 42.94 Up 0.7
Nov 1997-2006 32.81
Nov 2007-2016 32.37 Down 0.44
Dec 1997-2006 24.33
Dec 2007-2016 24.05 Down 0.28
Winter 1997-2006 24.38
Winter 2007-2016 22.97 Down 1.41
Spring 1997-2006 39.85
Spring 2007-2016 40.02 Up 0.17
Summer 1997-2006 59.54
Summer 2007-2016 60.01 Up 0.47
Autumn 1997-2006 42.65
Autumn 2007-2016 43.36 Up 0.71
Annuals 1997-2006 41.61
Annuals 2007-2016 41.59 Down 0.02
Max
Jan 1997-2006 43.56
Jan 2007-2016 42.24 Down 1.32
Feb 1997-2006 47.06
Feb 2007-2016 45.48 Down 1.58
Mar 1997-2006 54.76
Mar 2007-2016 56.40 Up 1.64
Apr 1997-2006 64.71
Apr 2007-2016 64.57 Down 0.14
May 1997-2006 73.98
May 2007-2016 73.42 Down 0.56
Jun 1997-2006 81.52
Jun 2007-2016 82.90 Up 1.38
Jul 1997-2006 87.56
Jul 2007-2016 87.17 Down 0.39
Aug 1997-2006 85.98
Aug 2007-2016 86.08 Up 0.10
Sep 1997-2006 78.92
Sep 2007-2016 79.38 Up 0.46
Oct 1997-2006 66.75
Oct 2007-2016 67.37 Up 0.62
Nov 1997-2006 54.53
Nov 2007-2016 55.07 Up 0.54
Dec 1997-2006 44.66
Dec 2007-2016 43.55 Down 1.11
Winter 1997-2006 45.09
Winter 2007-2016 43.76 Down 1.33
Spring 1997-2006 64.48
Spring 2007-2016 64.80 Up 0.32
Summer 1997-2006 85.02
Summer 2007-2016 85.38 Up 0.36
Autumn 1997-2006 66.73
Autumn 2007-2016 67.27 Up 0.54
Annuals 1997-2006 65.33
Annuals 2007-2016 65.30 Down 0.03
So NOAA temps show US winters were 1.41F cooler min and 1.33F cooler max in 2007-2016 than 1997-2006. The winters have cooled so much they overwhelm the warming experienced in all other seasons put together so that they bring down the annual averages (max down exactly the same averaging monthlies as annuals, but min down 0.02F in monthly averages and 0.1F in annual averages).
I still think the current cold snap should surprise nobody since winter temperatures in the US have fallen significantly over the last two decades.
Ian Magness January 4, 2018 at 12:30 am
Your post:
“Thanks for this Steve. Your graphs mirror findings in the UK where (see a multitude of graphs on Paul Homewood’s notalotofpeopleknowthat site) there seems to be little trend in maximum figures but a slight upward trend in minimum figures, especially in the winters. So, notwithstanding the significant noise called “the British weather”, in general, winters seem slightly less harsh. Nobody could sensible argue that has been a bad thing. As an aside, if there is an explanation as to why the magic molecule CO2 causes higher minimum, but not maximum, temperatures, I would love to hear it.”
Re “the British weather”,
Yes. Absolutely. It varies a bit, depending on what assails the British Isles – from West or East, South or North.
And I expect that not to change this year or next.
Watermelons – a minor (trivial, I know) prediction verifiable in – I hope, goodness – my lifetime!
Can you – dare you – do the same??
BUT
Re the majic molecule –
Ian writes – “if there is an explanation as to why the magic molecule CO2 causes higher minimum, but not maximum, temperatures, I would love to hear it.”
We’re going back – Back in time.
There the majic molecule affects temperature changes some 800 years before it reaches a maximum.
It really is a majic molecule – with knobs on, on steroids, and with ancillary-push, and probably afterburners, too!
And go-faster stripes, for all the use they are!
Mods – Hi! Now,id you guess I am joking.
Trying to make folk smile – if not spill their drinks?
Auto
@ur momisugly Steve and Marque:
I agree with Steve that our summers and winters are milder than in the last decade. I have pictures taken with Santa where we are all in shorts. And other years where we are dressed for the arctic cold. The 2014 Polar Vortex brought -60 F wind chills to my particular area. We haven’t seen that cold in a few years. But what is surprising is the timing of it. When I first moved to WI, the middle of January to beginning of Feb was when the negative double digit windchills occurred. Now we’ve got them in December. There were years where it wasn’t until July that summer actually started (my definition of summer is relative–the wind isn’t cold), and Spring thaw didn’t until the middle of May. Since 2010 though, the polar winds have come earlier which leads to an earlier Spring thaw and longer summers. I’m OK with that. LOTS of OK with it. But it also means less snow on the ground for skiing and of course more freezing rain (which I am not OK with…don’t like it, don’t want it.)
But you talk to someone that has been here their entire lives? This is all normal. One man in my building was talking about skating to school 1 week because of the freezing rain and black ice made any kind of travel too dangerous. They were encouraging kids to break out their ice skates in order to navigate the sidewalks and street. People were carpooling to work with someone that had chains on their tires in order to navigate the roads because the salt and sand wasn’t working. Someone else popped up that they remember it had taken them over an hour to travel a mile one day because they were crawling along in their car due to the ice.
I’ve been here long enough to have towns shut down due to an ice storm. But I’ve only seen 2 of them. If you talk to some old timers–they remember lots of school snow days due to ice for a few years and then other years going to school in light jackets in January.
Absolutely none of this is tested, it’s all observational. My opinion based upon my observations it’s weather and it’s cyclical. 🙂
The surface temperature record is a contaminated, heavily adjusted mess, so I doubt anyone knows for sure what is happening on a national or global scale, though I’ve heard from plenty of sources 1970s Northern winters were severe..
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/27/approximately-92-or-99-of-ushcn-surface-temperature-data-consists-of-estimated-values/
What a dumb statement. Eric Worrall has stated that winters have been getting colder over the past 25 years in Europe and the USA. Show us the data and evidence for this or retract it as a bold faced lie.
Not my statement, a quote from the article. … winters in North America and Europe have trended cooler over the past quarter-century ….
Ms. Kretschmer who discussed this issue is lead author of a study (also linked in the post) which investigates the “observed cooling”.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1
IF you have a problem with this assertion, take it up with the climate scientist.
@ur momisugly Donald, I totally agree with you when you say –
“What a dumb statement. that winters have been getting colder over the past 25 years in Europe and the USA. Show us the data and evidence for this or retract it as a bold faced lie.”
But that’s the kind of stupid statements climate scientists come up with….because they believe computer models & ignore empirical data.
AS Eric said –
“IF you have a problem with this assertion, take it up with the climate scientist.”
Donald said
You’re right of course. The quote (winters in North America and Europe have trended cooler over the past quarter-century) was from The New York Times. /sarc
marque2 January 3, 2018 at 7:23 pm
Wisconsin was in the negative teens just last week – what are you talking about?
I’m in just north of Milwaukee in the “Burbs” and did it get below -10°F this past week? We usually check the temperature and I don’t recall that we were in the minus teens. Maybe in Green Bay or Madison but not Milwaukee.
Any way, winters east of the Rockies are warmer and summers are cooler. The weather is milder than it used to be and pretty soon the climate alarmist are going to have to scream about extreme mildness (-:
Steve Case & marque2
Yeah, we’ve been a bit colder in the south-central part of WI. I woke up to a -15 F on my personal weather station in Cross Plains (10 mi west of Madison on US 14) this morning (Jan 4).
True. I suspect this might be an artifact of selectively averaging noise, just like claimed warming trends.
Magness, it’s not magic. In fact, if you look into the theory of global warming, increased minimum without significant change in maximum is a reasonable prediction of CO2 warming. The main difference is water. Since water’s absorption bands overlap with CO2, there’s a lowered absorption effect when there is significant water vapor in the atmosphere (ie: high temperature). Plus, at higher temperature, water evaporation and clouds act as a significant negative feedback. You just don’t have that at low temperatures. Therefore, a mild average increase in minimum temperatures with a much smaller or negligible increase in maximum temperature is the expected result.
Global warming isn’t a hoax, and CO2 isn’t magic. However, it has been greatly exaggerated to the point people can’t even recognize it when they see it.
“Magness, it’s not magic. In fact, if you look into the theory of global warming,”
It’s not a theory. It’s a hypothesis. Theories require demonstrated proof in double-blind studies that reproduce the results beyond statistical error-margins against the null hypothesis; and this has never happened.
EVER.
Not too hard to see where this is heading. Aside from one hysterically funny warning about how global warming/climate change was moderating rainfall in a certain region, all of the other scary stuff is about extremes – alternating from uber wet and flooding to uber dry and drought/wildfires. The new scare will be a pendulum between uber hot summers and uber cold winters. People will die. Crops will die.
How does adding heat cause extremes?
In some people.
Adding heat = greenhouse. It had to cause extremes after folks were trumpeting global warming, and there wasn’t global warming, but spatially and temporally local warming. Global warming cooling was such a problem that the greenhouse was renamed as climate change. After that, all news supports GH := AGW := CC. You don’t actually even need extremes to increase, but even small increase in some extremes is extremely useful in spreading the idea and collecting some money and power.
Yeah, that’s some good science. Start “knowing” that everything is caused by global warming, then set about proving it. If you can’t prove it, then the data must be bad and in need of adjustment.
rh- inductive reasoning. Money talks and AGW walks.
When will people understand creation is not finished yet………… it is ongoing.
“We’re trying to understand these dynamic processes that lead to cold winters,” Ms. Kretschmer said.
I suggest beginning w/ junior high earth science classes and going from there…
I have seen it cooling since 2002. I was in Canada for 10 of those years and have left since then. Far too cold. Far colder than my youth in the “cooling period” When I ask my friends and family still there, they tell me it is not that bad if you are dressed correctly, I would hate to spend most of my life in a place that was “not that bad.”
If the Arctic is warming, the cold had to go somewhere.
The equator temperatures do not change, Only the temperatures of the poles change. If the oceans are warm the land is too but both the Pacific and Atlantic are now cold so the land is also. The Arctic is not warming.
I can’t tell if you’re being facetious or serious.
Damon “If the Arctic is warming, the cold had to go somewhere.”
So now AGW is a zero-sum equation? I was just talking about how AGW depends on inconsistent arguments to maintain its conclusions…. and how that’s a form of mental illness.
8:41 PM EST Wednesday 03 January 2018Special weather statement in effect for:
City of Toronto
Cold snap from late Thursday through Saturday.
A bitterly cold northwesterly flow will develop over southern Ontario Thursday. Extreme cold warning criteria of minus 30 is expected to be met in many places Thursday night into Friday and again Friday night into Saturday.
The cold snap will end by Sunday as a southwesterly flow develops.
Coldest Night Of The Year in Toronto https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Mwc43Fd9DY
It seems Toronto will come within a whisper of setting a new all time record for the date, and winter is just starting. If the storm off the E coast pulls hard, the wind speed will pick up to something terrible. Wind and snow at thirty below, that is apocalyptic stuff. Dozens will die.
“Dozens will die?”
EXCESS WINTER MORTALITY TOTALS ABOUT 10.000 DEATHS PER YEAR IN CANADA AND ABOUT 100,000 DEATHS PER YEAR IN THE USA. EXCESS WINTER MORTALITY ESPECIALLY TARGETS THE ELDERLY AND THE POOR.
Reference:
“Cold Weather Kills 20 Times as Many People as Hot Weather”, September 4, 2015
by Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
https://friendsofsciencecalgary.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/cold-weather-kills-macrae-daleo-4sept2015-final.pdf
In the USA, that is equivalent to two 9-11’s per week for 16 weeks every year.
Excess Winter Mortality especially targets the elderly and the poor.
So what do our idiot politicians do about it? They greatly increase the cost of home heating and other life-saving energy usage and compromise the reliability of our electrical grids with their imbecilic intermittent green energy schemes.
London Free Press, London, Ontario, Jan.3/4, 2018
‘London Hydro: Unpaid bills skyrocket amid deep freeze’
Re: Unpaid bills mounting.
http://www.lfpress.com/2018/01/03/heating-costs-too-much-for-many-in-city-region
ALLAN MACRAE “Excess Winter Mortality especially targets the elderly and the poor. So what do our idiot politicians do about it? They greatly increase the cost of home heating and other life-saving energy usage and compromise the reliability of our electrical grids with their imbecilic intermittent green energy schemes.”
And don’t forget they raise taxes to PAY for it, thereby lowering people’s ability to PAY for home-heating.
Oh, the CLIMATE is changing, now, is it? Ummm…. yes, I guess it’s getting colder… except that it is now mid-winter in the northern half of the planet and we’re getting freakin’ cold Siberian air here in my kingdom.
If anything is happening, the climate thingie is having its hiccups and giggling at the expense of these anxiety-ridden grant seekers, who will come running to us for food, warm clothing and shelter. We must stop them at the mouth of the cave!!!
Seriously, will someone please let me know when those people plan to grow up? They don’t seem to understand that this planet has its own agenda, as was clearly stated by the Late Great George Carlin. it’s had many, many, many swings from warm climate to cold climate long before we puny humans existed, and it will continue to have them after we’ve either moved to other planets like Proxima b or Ceti Alpha V.
I think all those people need some serious counseling. I really do. Counseling, quiet rooms, art therapy – books that won’t tax their minds too much, such as Little Women, Grimm Brothers, Bambi, Shrek I, II, and III.
Does anyone want a sandwich? We can watch them implode from a safe distance.
Sara “Oh, the CLIMATE is changing, now, is it? Ummm…. yes, I guess it’s getting colder…”
Which they say PROVES it’s getting WARMER! Somehow…
Of course this means that AGW is a ZERO-SUM equation, whereby the melting polar-ice results in other areas freezing: so that means it’s getting warmer overall, AND staying the same overall.
I think it’s called “Dissociative Disorder.”
Meanwhile, back up at the zoo in Calgary Alberta, they’ve brought the penguins inside because it’s too cold for them. link
Re cold in Calgary …. all gone and I was barbecuing in shorts tonight! http://wx.ca/
It’s a bit chilly in southern Ontario this week – see Clipe’s comment just above. Not like it was in 1979 when we saw a few -30°C mornings in downtown Toronto.
The coldest place in Canada today is Hall Beach, Nunavut at -39.7°C.
What happened to those temperatures in the minus forties for a couple of weeks at a time, like we used to see in northern Ontario and Manitoba in the 1970s and 1980s? Or the minus fifties (C), which I last experienced in Saskatchewan in 2002. I suspect that we’re seeing a bit of global warming
Do the media people really think this weather is unprecedented (or even unusual)? Or are they deliberately exaggerating it to fit the climate change story? I’m thinking the latter.
Growing up in the UK, I well remember the great winter of 1963. Now that was getting close to unprecedented.
-50 C in Saskatchewan is a rare event. On the other hand …
It’s so dry. The static electricity is intense. A buddy from a small Pacific island, where it’s always pretty humid, went up to his hotel room and came back down in a panic. He drew a giant spark from the light switch and was afraid the hotel was going to burn down because of an electrical fault.
If you want to avoid static electricity, wear white.
Old wives tale.
If you want to avoid static electricity
Keep moving (:-))
Wear silver or gold, and there won’t be any static electricity around. 🙂 But I do wonder do those hair conditioners help? They’re antistatic, should spraying them on coats decrease static electricity?
Hopefully the cold will kill some of those bark beetles.
It was never about cold. It was about fire and burning those old trees
Eve: Global warming was blamed by warmists for abetting the bark beetle infestation’s growth by preventing the really cold spells in winter that killed them. Now that some parts of the Rockies have got a really cold spell, warmists’ predictions of beetle apocalypse will likely be falsified.
This post is nonsense. It mixes regional winter temperatures with global average annual temperatures. Not surprisingly the two can be quite different. If you were in the arctic you would notice temperatures being significantly higher than usual as compared to the colder than average winters in the mid-latitudes.
Funny how that is only wrong when other people do it.
For the last decade the winter temperatures in the arctic have been warmer than normal. link
You live there and tell me how you like the temperatures
And are we taking bets for the next decade? What do the models say..
@The Old Man,
The models say that snow up there is going to be a rare and exciting event…………
Some folks say they are discombobulated by the warmth. link
They say that as we age we become more nostalgic. Surely nostalgia is the strong forcing that makes snowbirds flee to Florida and endure its discombobulating warmth, all for the sake of having warm memories of former cold.
Retired yankee: “Cold, I love you so much. How can I miss you if you won’t go away?”
Cold: “I’m not going anywhere.”
Retired yankee: “CYA!”
The average of varying quantity can in no way describe what is “normal.”
Maybe, but there’s far more people in the mid-latitudes to notice it. Hardly anyone lives in the Arctic.
Dave Fair “The average of varying quantity can in no way describe what is “normal.”
Standard Deviation can.
Just browsing Phys.org and came across this new technique for measuring ocean temps via krypton/argon ratios and which can also be used to analyze air bubbles ice cores from the Antarctic to determine past ocean temps . Could be a game changer in the climate change debates . Check it out .
phys.org/news/2018-01-thermometer-global-ocean.html
“Climate Change May Be Part of the Answer” Climate change is definitely part of the answer. The climate is cooling off a little….
The climate has been changing for billions of years, the next change is cooling and back to an iceage is my guess. No one with an intelligence level above their shoe size believes human CO2 emissions have any effect on the climate at all. CO2 makes my tomatoes grow better and is therefor good for the environment. Any effect it has is good not bad.
Not sure where you get the idea the climate is “cooling off a little”. Discounting El Niño years 2017 was the
warmest year according to all records. And according to GISS it was the second warmest ever.
And most of the year was still recovering from that very large El Nino.
A LOT of energy was released from the oceans over a considerable length of time.
And when you release energy from somewhere.. IT COOLS. !!
Now we have a La Nina forming, and the sun is snoozing.. Recharge will be slow.
Cooling is on the way.
And the AGW desperation is starting to show. 🙂
(Add Trump into the mix, and its getting quite comical watching the left-wing totalitarians panicking 🙂 )
It wasn’t warm for me. Hmm
Don’t forget to subtract at least 0.5C for the adjustments they have made.
Which they have documented.
The world has been cooling for most of the past 10000 years. The current temperatures are still well below the average for that period.
I think Watts Up With That should start to put more focus on whether summers (as opposed to winters) are going to start getting cooler, especially with regard to higher latitudes.
Anyone given any thought to solar cycles?