Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
The latest EIA 2017 IEO report projects world energy consumption to increase by 28% from 2015 through 2040.
Non OECD countries (the developing nations-China, India, etc.) account for about 84% of this increased energy use with non OECD Asia making up the majority of this energy use growth.
Significant growth (43%) in natural gas use is projected in meeting the worlds total energy increase through 2040.
Petroleum and other liquid fuels use growth (18%) continues but at a slower pace than natural gas.
Coal energy use is projected to be stable during this period with declines in China offset by increased use in India.
Renewables (hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, other) is the fastest growing energy source with wind, solar and natural gas supplying most of the electricity sector growth.
Renewables are projected to supply 31% of world electricity generation in 2040 the same as coal with hydro representing 53% of the electricity renewable energy total.
In 2040 fossil (petroleum and other liquids, natural gas and coal) and nuclear fuels are projected to supply about 83% of global total energy consumption with 9% from renewables (wind, solar, geothermal, other) and 8% from hydro.
OECD countries (the developed countries-U.S., Europe, etc.) are projected to reduce CO2 emissions in the period between 2015 and 2040 while the non OECD countries are projected to be increasing CO2 emissions by about 5.5 billion metric tons in this period.
U.S. year 2040 CO2 emissions are projected to be lower than 2015 emissions and about 19% below peak CO2 levels of year 2005 which were about 6 billion metric tons of CO2.
Increased use of natural gas derived from fracking technology is replacing more costly coal sources and driving reduced OCED projected CO2 emissions as well as reduced rates of increased CO2 emissions from non OECD countries.
Coal energy use continues to create the majority of global CO2 emissions.
The EIA 2017 IEO report clearly demonstrates the continued dominance of fossil fuels in providing the huge majority of global energy consumption many decades into the future as well as showing that renewable energy will not control the future of world energy consumption despite much flawed hype to the contrary.
Additionally the report shows the huge role that the energy market price driven increased use of natural gas is playing in reducing OECD nation CO2 emissions while significantly lowering the rate of growth of CO2 emissions of the non OECD nations from 3% to 1% per year after 2015.
This reports results strongly suggest that it is absurd for global governments to demand that the world cough up trillions of dollars in mandated programs to reduce CO2 emissions and increase renewable energy use when fracking technology has produced such dramatic benefits in lowering market price based energy costs while increasing more economic use of significantly lower emissions fuels.