Earth’s future is ‘worse than we thought’ – 25th anniversary edition

From the AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, Union of Concerned Scientists, and the “most well-known concerned scientist is a dog” department comes this bluster of “worse than we thought 25 years ago”.

Scientists update their ‘warning to humanity’ on its 25th anniversary

Scientists have long engaged the public and leaders on crucial matters of environmental stewardship. In 1992, the Union of Concerned Scientists, along with more than 1700 signatories, issued the “World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity,” in which they argued that human impacts on the natural world were likely to lead to “vast human misery” and a planet that was “irretrievably mutilated.”

On the twenty-fifth anniversary of the landmark declaration, William J. Ripple, his colleagues, and over 15,000 signatories from 184 countries revisit the original warning in what they deem “A Second Notice“. Using time-series data, the authors evaluate human responses to the threats identified in 1992. With the exception of a stabilized stratospheric ozone layer, the news is not good. “Humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard our imperiled biosphere,” report the authors. They note that the overwhelming majority of the previously outlined threats remain and “alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse.”

Not all of the news is bleak. Ripple and his colleagues note that the “rapid global decline in ozone-depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively.” To build on this success, the authors outline 13 areas in which reined-in human behaviors may be able to move the Earth’s systems toward sustainability. The failure to heed this second notice, say the authors, would produce dire consequences, with catastrophic biodiversity loss and widespread misery for humans. The authors include a cautionary note: “Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory, and time is running out. We must recognize, in our day-to-day lives and in our governing institutions, that Earth with all its life is our only home.” But they also close with an optimistic message about working together on these environmental challenges: “We can make great progress for the sake of humanity and the planet on which we depend.”

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“Humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard our imperiled biosphere,”

I dunno about these guys, seems they missed the fact that the biosphere seems to be happy, and growing. Obviously they only see what they wish.

Composite image showing the global distribution of photosynthesis, including both oceanic phytoplankton and terrestrial vegetation. Dark red and blue-green indicate regions of high photosynthetic activity in the ocean and on land, respectively. Image: NASA SEAWIFS

NASA says the Biosphere is booming, and increased CO2 is the cause

NASA says 30% growth in biosphere is attributed to CO2

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pochas94

If only people like these ruled this planet.

/sarc

Curious George

They should not use any fossil fuels. Travel on foot – did anybody measure how much methane a horse produces? On seas, use sailboats … oh no, they want to use galleys.

Tom Gelsthorpe

Gad! If we go back to the olden days, horse farts are going to kill us all.

Henning Nielsen

No, galley slaves exude a terrible amount of co2.

Mumbles McGuirck

Well, they did such a good job with Mars. It’s such a vibrant, living rock now. 😉

M Seward

This is not an entirely new idea perhaps but I reckon if you assigned an ‘hysteria’ parameter to the produce from the Green Blob then plotted that parameter over time it would closely track the output of ‘the models’ and may even form a hockey stick.

This is of course speculation at this stage but it may be sufficient to get funding.

I’m busy so I’ll put it out there in the interests of science.

Earthling2

15,000 signatures. Really? With 7 million of the planets scientists not signing on to this the Headline should read: 99.8% of the world’s scientists do not join in to the “Warning to Humanity”.

AnotherQlder

Ironically, the link which refers the reader to the 15,000 signatures does NOT exist! Oh boy – hacked?

Latitude

…just says a disproportionate amount of loons…call themselves scientists

Yeah, they had the same doomsday warning in 1992. And in ’82. And ’72. But nothing’s happened. I think this qualifies for being called Crying Wolf.

Robert W Turner

Crying wolf is where the real damage is done, as long as they don’t get totalitarian control, which they are gunning for. Efforts in pretending to stop the climate from changing — the trillions of dollars spent on calling CO2 pollution — should be spent on climate change preparation.

Santa Baby

They want the leftist wet dream, a radical change of society.

Joel Snider

‘If only people like these ruled this planet.’

Don’t doubt that that’s exactly what they have in mind.

Graham

They do.

These kinds of statements need to be followed up with … and I will resign if I am wrong.”

More like the Union of Concerned Bedwetters

More like the Union of Concerned Bedwetters

Auto

But WE get to pay for the repeated laundry bills.

Auto

Cam_S

Alright! Twitter based science.
——————

How #ScientistsWarningtoHumanity signed up 15,000 scientists
Warning to humanity: A second notice marks 25 years since Nobel manifesto
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-11/uos-hs110817.php

Latitude

“rapid global decline in ozone-depleting substances shows that we can make positive change when we act decisively.”……LOL…..they don’t understand it….but take credit for it

>>
They note that the overwhelming majority of the previously outlined threats remain and “alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse.”
<<

Like too many polar bears.

Jim

Rob

The Union of Concerned Scientists were named in a RICO complaint along with a bunch of other eco terrorist outfits.

Tom Halla

Typical, the one thing they claim as a success, the “ozone hole” was not a problem to start with.

paqyfelyc

It was. Well, may be not for you (who lives in Antarctica anyway?), but for Dupont.
It was more important that just a life and death issue, it was a money issue.
DuPont patent on Freon(tm) was expiring, they urgently needed it to be replaced by some new molecule covered by a new patent.
Unfortunately, these new molecule were not as good as old Freon, and costed more (all patent aside), so they wouldn’t replace Freon of their own.
Fortunately, some econut provided some reason to do it, and Average Joe wouldn’t even notice the few dollar it would cost him, so thing ruan smouthly just in time to save DuPont benefits.
And they could even play “well, that’s doesn’t seem a good idea to us, plenty of hassle, but, if you really want, we –reluctantly– agree”.

schitzree

Technically it wasn’t DuPont’s patent on Freon that was expiring, that had expired a decade previously. It was their patent on the process for MAKING Freon.

Apparently they weren’t able to get a new patent on PUTTING FREON INTO THINGS.

~¿~

Jer0me

So, 25 years ago they predicted disasters. Now that none of these disasters have occurred, they predict more disasters?

Did I miss anything?

Curious George

Persevere. Disasters must come sooner or (in the worst case) later.

I think you missed the fact that since none of their predicted disasters have occurred, then it shold be obvious that their actions, efforts and cautions have been successful at preventing the calamities that they predicted. And yep, SARC., big time.

Tom Gelsthorpe

Here’s what you missed. 500 million people rose from poverty in the last 25 years. How bad can news get? All those unruly peasants are now middle class. No wonder we’re all doomed.

Gunga Din

Obviously you’ve missed all the disasters in the last 25 years that nobody else noticed either….except, maybe, that Hillary lost and Trump won.
That was as big a “disaster” as CO2’s effect on the biosphere. (More green, less cash is not good news to them. 😎

Graemethecat

Hundreds of millions of poor peasants becoming middle-class counts as a disaster for the Union of Concerned Idiots.

Martin457

What is the temp. of the earth supposed to be? Not an average or planet w/o people but, a temp everyone could be happy with. It doesn’t matter, we’re doomed.

Bad Apple

Where is the cute photo of Kenji? Kenji’s my favorite scientist in that union.

Goldrider

And Kenji’s housebroken, which is more than we can say for the rest of them!

“Humanity is not taking the urgent steps needed to safeguard our (imperiled biosphere) Bank Balances,”

Rhoda R

Yep. The whole point of the exercise.

Auto

ntesdorf
I agree with Rhoda R – absolutely.
Milk the peasant, give to the alchemist – or blagger . . . .

Auto

Sheri

Wolf! Wolf! Wolf!

Bruce Cobb

Uh-oh, spaghetti-os, this is our “second notice”. In 25 years more will come (dun-dun-dunnnn) the dreaded “third notice”. We do NOT want to get a third notice, believe me. It won’t be pretty.

Usually they just skip to the third notice and claimed you ignored the other two. I get third notices quite often–don’t remember the first two.

Jim

co2islife

WUWT you have to find someone to write an article about GE tanking. All the liberal pensions have driven that company into Green Energy and now it is collapsing. It cut its dividend in half today, and things aren’t looking good.

PiperPaul

Here is some video of part of the conference they held to come up with their list of terrible things that we are all causing and must keep sending money to stop:
comment image

M Montgomery

I am surrounded by alarmists in my family. It would be an understatement to say that the combination of Trump Derangement Syndrome and the fury with which they are invigorating alarmists with an onslaught of things like these second warning reports, fascist media policies (LA Times has refused any further opposing climate views), COP23 (today and tomorrow in Germany), etc., along with taking over the education system with enviro-whackism, we are on a major collision course with these “superiors” as early as the 2018 elections.

The alarmists are meeting in living rooms and convention centers across the nation organizing the coalition that the left is so famously good at and like never before. They are mad as hell, vindictive, and blinded to any other way but to mow down anything in their path.

Keep in mind, “the ends justify the means” with these types. I’m hoping someone will come up with an effective counter-measure, but the repeatable, scientific result has been that these whacko’s either cannot process reason or they have gone too far down the corruption path to be able to save face or turn back.

joelobryan

vote.

joelobryan

They thought they had President Hillary in bank, based on the pre-election polls.

The old corny Batman is always Good for a chuckle.
https://youtu.be/bKjhaSlr0Jg

Warren Blair

US Gov is still spreading alarmism via NASA and NOAA but moreover through the education system.
No balance has been brought to the science via Government initiatives.
Bannon has missed this one which I believe he’ll regret for the very issues you mention.
Unfortunately Bannon’s donors are semi-globalists so they’re soft on the AGW scam.
The left has a hook for young people and it’s working.
Trump is sitting on the fence with his agencies and departments.
It could cost the new ‘conservatives’ the next election (if not the one after).

Didn’t work the first time. Won’t this time either. But the exspansion of signatories shows how much bigger the gravy train has gotten in the intervening years..

joelobryan

TDS is not just a US-based phenomenon. It is global in effect on the anxiety levels of those riding the climate gravy train.

joelobryan

Yes the Ozone Hole in Antarctica appears to diminishing. But have levels of CFC-12 and carbon tetrachloride gone down to support the hypothesis of CFC’s role in ozone depletion? It seems CFC-11 has dimished, but from what I was able to find, stratospheric CFC-12 and CCl4 levels are not diminishing like expected, but the literature seems to have gone quiet on this issue lately.

Can anyone point out actual data on CFC-12 and CCl4 trends?

I find contradicting studies. Does not seem clear to me that the ozone hole-CFC causal effect hypothesis is established with actual data.

Gunga Din

Who needs actual data when actual hype is available?
Enviro-hypotheticals only need hype to stay on their feet.

joelobryan

I think the chemistry of halogen-based UV photolysis of O3 (ozone destruction) is quite well established.

My beef is the uncertainty on whether the seasonal Antarctic ozone hole size is natural and the halogens that can destroy it are also modulated by natural fluctuations. That goes to heart of whether the Montreal Protocol is demonstrably responsible for the recent ozone hole healing.

A C Osborn

The Ozone hole is NOT healing.
It is changing all the time and it is completely natural.
They chose to say it is healing this year because it is slightly smaller than normal.
But the main point is that Ozone levels have not increased worldwide.

Alba

“Soon it will be too late to shift course away from our failing trajectory, and time is running out.”
With these people it’s never as late as we thought it was.

Put 15,000 alarmist scientists in a room to discuss every possible doomsday scenario, and I’m surprised they came up with even one positive message. In fact, I’m surprised they didn’t all depress each other so much that they didn’t have a mass, ritualistic wrist slashing party.

But hey, 31,487 signatories to the Oregon petition, including 9,029 PhD’s was ridiculed by the green blob, so I guess the world has a duty to ignore these muppets.

And do we have the names and qualifications of the 15,000 provided openly for all to see? And did they include that well known Nobel prize winner, Al Gore, who isn’t a scientist.

Only 14,999 to go.

paqyfelyc

paqyfelyc

Only because he’s furry. He’s got a lot more sense than the other 14,998.

Red94ViperRT10

But Kenji didn’t sign, did he? Let’s peruse that so-called document for a paw print!

AndyG55

Excuse me, how do you know that Kenji isn’t quite capable of marking with a pen.

What sort of dogist comment is that !!!

Also he could have asked for it to be signed by proxy, because he had a sore paw at the time.

paqyfelyc

who let the dog in?

Alba

Guess what comes at the end of their statement?
“We can reduce global warming emissions and ensure communities have the resources they need to withstand the effects of climate change—but not without you. Your generous support helps develop science-based solutions for a healthy, safe, and sustainable future.”
That’s followed by a donate button. Maybe the donations help the people running this outfit to jet around the world to umpteen conferences thereby increasing global carbon emissions.

stinkerp

Proof that at least 15,000 “scientists” are really bad at drawing conclusions from statistics. One of the signature claims is that water resources per capita have decreased 26.1% in the last 25 years. During that same period, world population increased by 37%. That means water resources per capita should have also decreased 37%, but they only decreased by 26.1%. Which means that humans are getting better at accessing fresh water and using it more efficiently. Which is GOOD news! Unless you’re a doomer.

michael hart

Fair dinks. At least figure 1 placed the UK in a position where it appears visible on a global map. I don’t like those ones oriented near the International Date Line.

OTOH, obviously I don”t want UK politicians to continue thinking they could somehow have an effect on global carbon dioxide levels.

RAH

Doomsday clock.comment image

AndyG55

When it reaches 00:00, we will be over-run by IDIOTS.

This climate change malarkey and its blatheren, bring us closer all the time.

Goldrider

Doomsday Clock: Melodramatic cultural construct, signifying nothing.

jako

Well, if you look at the origin of the year axis, there is a liddle mushroom… Yup, this is not the dreaded CAGW clock, this is the good old WW3 NEC (Nuclear Extinction Clock)!!! And indeed, at midnight, we will all be run over by the neocons.

RAH

Nope! The doomsday clock is not just about nuclear Armageddon anymore. It is also now about “climate change”.
From the horses mouths, so to speak: https://thebulletin.org/overview

Mike Maguire

Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

Global cereal production seen hitting (another) new high in 2017:

https://www.indoasiancommodities.com/2017/10/05/global-cereal-production-hitting-new-high-2017-fao/

November 9-GRAINS-Corn hits new lows after USDA projects record 2017 U.S. yield:

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/grains-corn-hits-new-lows-after-usda-projects-record-2017-us-yield

“In its (November) monthly supply and demand report, the USDA raised its
corn crop forecast to 14.578 billion bushels, based on an
average yield of 175.4 bushels per acre, (BPA) which, if
realized, would top a record set last year. The soy crop was
seen at a record 4.425 billion bushels, on a yield of 49.5 bpa”

If this is worse than we thought it would be like today, when predicting what it would be like 25 years ago…………what exactly were the expectations?

The last 40 years has featured the best weather/climate and CO2 for life on this planet, especially for the biosphere, since the Medieval Warm Period……..that was this warm across much of the planet.

2015——-Hottest year ever! New records for crop production and booming biosphere/greening planet.

2016——New hottest year ever! New records for crop production and booming biosphere/greening planet.

2017—–Not quite as hot but CO2 still does its thing. New records for crop production and booming biosphere/greening planet.

The only place where widespread catastrophic climate change exists is on global climate model projections that simulate the atmosphere for the next century based on equations that represent a speculative theory. The global climate models are too warm. They can’t predict regional climate/weather even if they were adjusted down based on reality.

lee

Ripples “Believe It Or Not”?

Neo

They told me the “Yo-Kai” would destroy the world

observa

You’d think with perpetually having to move the hands on the dud doomsday clock these clever bozos would have tried some of their own prescriptions. If not a reliable fossil fuelled mains powered clock then at least try their precious solar panel plus battery routine.

Art

Oh, good grief! “OK, it didn’t happen the way we said it would 25 years ago but this time……..”

Luc Ozade

This nonsense was obviously timed to coincide with COP 23.

RockyRoad

The only climatic condition that would warrant such obviously misdirected alarm would be the end of the current interglacial period and resumption of the next glacial period. THAT would be of major concern; a slight amount of warming, which has happened several times in the recent geologic past is not worth a footnoted mention.

Asp

That damned tipping point! The closer one gets, the further away it seems.

Repent! The end is near!

Warren Blair

US Gov is still spreading alarmism via NASA and NOAA but moreover through the education system.
No balance has been brought to the science via Government initiatives.
Bannon has missed this one which I believe he’ll regret.
Unfortunately Bannon’s donors are semi-globalists so they’re soft on the AGW scam.
The left has a hook for young people and it’s working.
Trump is sitting on the fence with his agencies and departments.
It could cost the new ‘conservatives’ the next election (if not the one after).

sophocles

Oh. 15,000 climate scientists are running out of Grant Expenditure?
How sad …
Too Bad …
Never Mind.

Coeur de Lion

But I do worry about plastic.

Peta of Newark

Primary school science by NASA when they say CO2 causes greening.
Why?
Only in proper greenhouses, where all the other nutrients that plants need/use are in epic over-abundance and hence CO2 becomes the Liebig Limiter.
Let’s face it, no-one is gonna build a glasshouse, put plants in there and then starve them.
Outside in The Real World, CO2 is not the Leibig Limiting Nutrient.

Temperature is, isn’t it asks I, looking to the Distinguished Michael Mann for a response.

NASA rather blow their credibility with the caption on the banner image here – haven’t they got their ‘respectively’ the wrong-way-round?

And we cut them no slack as the ‘just an innocent typo’ cry goes up. OK?
They are patently not paying attention and when it comes to controlling The World and telling everybody how to live, eat, drive, make babies, keep warm etc etc, innocent mistakes like that are gonna kill billions.

Remember the Russian radar boss, celebrated recently (did he just pass away?) who unseeingly avoided WW3 by disregarding what his radar/computer told him about ‘incoming missiles’?

Dodged a bullet there but now we have Australian Weather Muppets reading temperatures every second of the day, disregarding low temps and blowing their horns whenever a high temp is recorded.

There is something to be genuinely worried about – some little minnion, watching a computer, somewhere, sometime, someplace is gonna set off a global train events that will not end happily – and here (CO2 induced warming) is the precedent

Peta of Newark

computers eh (see the exact problem I was saying about?)

How did “unseeingly avoided WW3” get there – it was *supposed* to say *seemingly* blah blah…

paqyfelyc

CO2 is not the Leibig Limiting Nutrient, indeed, but water often is, and more CO2 also means lower water loss. Without CO2 starving, C4 plants would just NOT exist, and in fact they appeared quite recently, when CO2 level plummeted, meaning more water loss to extract CO2 from atmosphere.

jclarke341

“They note that the overwhelming majority of the previously outlined threats remain and “alarmingly, most of them are getting far worse.”

This statement is basically true. We have the same THREATS as we had 25 years ago,and the THREATS are now worse than ever. The weather is normal, climate is just fine and the biosphere is steadily becoming more robust each year, but the THREATS, which are as empty as a box of climate model’s accurate projections, are worse than ever! The only part that I disagree with is the notion that these threats are alarming. Empty threats are never alarming, except to the uneducated.

bruce

hey, who writes the headline. Perfect, humor, sarcasm, understatement. But then anything is understatement when proclaiming the most bizarre is the norm.

May Bearpig

I’m considering setting up an new organisation called “The union of REALLY concerned scientists” there will be strict entry criteria; mainly an ability to pay money into my paypal account. Members will get an email once a month explaining what they think about Climate change and stuff.

LittleOil