Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to a study by Arizona State University, global warming will accelerate deterioration of roads because the original asphalt won’t cope with the anticipated rapid temperature rise.
Study Says Climate Change Could Lead to Rougher Roads
By Don Jergler | September 28, 2017
…
A study by professors at Arizona State University shows that global warming could add billions of dollars to the nation’s transportation budget for pavement costs alone.
“Transportation infrastructure is built to last decades, but engineering protocols in the United States assume climate stationarity, which may result in accelerated degradation and, consequently, increased costs,” a study out from academics at ASU states.
According to the study, if the standard practice for material selection is not changed to adapt to rising average temperatures, it could add up to $21.8 billion to pavement costs by 2070 under the same moderate global warming scenarios that predict average global temperature increases of 1.8 C.
The standard practice for selecting materials to build roads is based on average temperatures from 1966 to 1995, which differs from averaged based on data studied from 1985 to 2014, according to Shane Underwood, an assistant professor of civil engineering at ASU and one of the authors of the study.
“That may not be applicable going forward,” Underwood said. “That’s largely a decision on expectations that the future will look at lot like the past. That uncertainty can lead to higher costs.”
…
Read more: http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2017/09/28/465946.htm
The abstract of the study;
Increased costs to US pavement infrastructure from future temperature rise
B. Shane Underwood, Zack Guido, Padmini Gudipudi & Yarden Feinberg
Roadway design aims to maximize functionality, safety, and longevity. The materials used for construction, however, are often selected on the assumption of a stationary climate. Anthropogenic climate change may therefore result in rapid infrastructure failure and, consequently, increased maintenance costs, particularly for paved roads where temperature is a key determinant for material selection. Here, we examine the economic costs of projected temperature changes on asphalt roads across the contiguous United States using an ensemble of 19 global climate models forced with RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Over the past 20 years, stationary assumptions have resulted in incorrect material selection for 35% of 799 observed locations. With warming temperatures, maintaining the standard practice for material selection is estimated to add approximately US$13.6, US$19.0 and US$21.8 billion to pavement costs by 2010, 2040 and 2070 under RCP4.5, respectively, increasing to US$14.5, US$26.3 and US$35.8 for RCP8.5. These costs will disproportionately affect local municipalities that have fewer resources to mitigate impacts. Failing to update engineering standards of practice in light of climate change therefore significantly threatens pavement infrastructure in the United States.
Read more (paywalled): https://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3390.html
I’m not questioning Professor Underwood’s expertise with civil engineering, his ability to calculate the impact on existing materials of given arbitrary temperature changes, but an assumption that materials will remain static in coming decades is highly questionable.
There is huge ongoing investment into improving the durability of road paving materials, and increasingly robotic means of laying roads. To assume these advances will not significantly reduce road maintenance costs, to assume unlikely worst case climate scenarios like RCP 8.5, in my opinion is alarmist and absurd.
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On Wednesday, I wore a sleeveless t-shirt because it was hot. A cold front came through Wednesday night, and yesterday, I wore a long sleeve t-shirt. It worked out great! It did not take me 100 years to decide to put on a warmer shirt. It didn’t take any effort or planning or a scientific study from a major university. There was no crisis or catastrophe. It didn’t cost me any more money. The weather got almost 20 degrees cooler and I put on a long sleeve shirt. Just like that! It’s called adaptability, and we humans have it in abundance!
Why would anyone be worried about a 1 or 2 degree change over 100 years? An amoeba would take such a change in stride. Are road engineers dumber than an amoeba? Of course not! Those who write about the horrors of climate change however, …
Asphalt cement concrete highways have a useful design life of about 30 years. Mix design is an old field of civil engineering and new methods of mixing and choosing additives to increase the life or wear and temperature resistance are being developed all the time. If, over the life time of a highway surface, there is measurable change in the ambient temperatures, the next surface will have this information available for the design engineer. Road bed design is far more important to the longevity of the surface and is very consistent through a very wide range of temperatures.
I didn’t see the bio’s of these authors but must question their knowledge of highway materials and design or their intent in doing this study.
I live in upstate New York, where the roads of whatever material – asphalt, concrete, gravel – suffer due to the pounding of snowplows and the freeze/thaw cycles. I was hoping global warming would help us. What a disappointment that it seems not to be working. /sarc
Although the warmlist is no longer being added to since 2015, it is still worthwhile looking at if only to point out the ludicrous and insane nature of global warming alarmism. These people are truly suffering a form of insanity, or maybe so many just want to get in on the scam.
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm
People live in times when conformity is 100% mandatory and punishment is handed out if one dares cross the established norms. When you live under constant duress to be what the government and press demand you be, people often say whatever it takes. It’s a result of social media and the breakdown of society. All there is for support are the peer groups. You go along or you go alone.
Most roads in London are more than rough, in fact many are more akin to a lunar surface.
It has nothing to do with temperature, it’s cheap materials and a lack of maintenance.
Keeps the costs down you see….
The mayor doesn’t want the plebes to be driving anyway.
Just another study spinning what is a positive, into a negative. Freeze thaw cycle does the most damage. Global warming increases minimums the most and decreases the diurnal temperature spread(slightly) as well as increases temperatures the most in the coldest places in the coldest times of year.
Warmer Winters will require the use of LESS harsh chemicals on roadways, needed to lower the freezing point of water.
From their study:
“Kentucky tops the list with the highest median increase at $26,127 per mile per lane”
The other thing. When the air temperature is 100, asphalt, at peak sun can get up to over 160 degrees(others might know the exact number)……….because of the peak sun.
If we assume that the suns angle and power will remain the same and add 60 degrees to the temperature of the asphalt, even a jump of 4 deg. F(which is pretty far fetched in my lukewarmer world) means the asphalt will potentially get up to 164 deg. F.
In the state of Kentucky, for instance, we are to believe that asphalt is going to degrade so badly on the extraordinarily rare occasions that it peaks at 164 degrees vs the previous peak of 160 deg. F that the cost will average $26,127 per mile per lane?
And the fact is that daytime temperatures in the Summer are not increasing in the US. The 1930’s were still the hottest………by a wide margin for daytime max’s and heat waves.
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-high-and-low-temperatures
The potential increase in the temperature of asphalt would peak around June 21st, with the peak in the sun’s angle………which is the biggest determinant in raising the temperature.
Seasonally, with the lag in the air temperature, the peak in the hottest days is usually 30 days after the peak intensity from the sun.
On July 21st for instance, the air temperature can be 104 deg F. but the asphalt temperature may be lower than on June 21th, with an air temperature of 100 degrees.
On August 21st, on a sunny day, you can have the hottest air temperature ever recorded for that location but the asphalt will be far shy of the hottest.
The sun’s position in the sky on clear days is the biggest determinant of asphalt temperature.
Studies like this, that can be obliterated on many levels by somebody that knows very little about asphalt using some common sense, basic meteorology knowledge, expose the objective………..find evidence, even if it’s manufactured of major, costly consequences of human caused climate change.
the roads in most of KY cost so much because of one factor = the HILLS, in most states you can build a road without having to cut through a huge hill first.
KY has some of the best interstates and parkways in the country IMO.
Ice-melting salt prevents road surfaces from expanding in the freeze cycle. Wherever there is a break in the pavement, salt prevents freezing expansion, ergo “THE BUMP” ERGO “THE HYDRAULIC RAm,” ERGO “the wasteland”….
New materials being developed all the time…
http://www.scpr.org/news/2016/10/24/65754/an-experiment-to-smooth-over-la-s-worst-streets/
I thought one takes the most extreme conditions recorded and then design for 50% above that.
That would be the rational way to do it…….
Interesting…ASU and this group of engineers is also working on designing new formulations and additives to increase the longevity of asphalt concrete. Nothing makes a sales pitch more solid than pointing out that a “new” product is better than an “old” one because it might save you billions of dollars in the future…
Is it a conflict of interest to produce studies that might be used to earn money in the future?
…I’m not questioning Professor Underwood’s expertise with civil engineering, his ability to calculate the impact on existing materials of given arbitrary temperature changes, but an assumption that materials will remain static in coming decades is highly questionable….
Nonsense!! Here in England we expect a lot of problems with getting mediaeval ox-carts over Roman cobbled streets. Because that’s what we’ll end up with if the Greens have their way…
In which States has the temperature of roads been rising since 1995?
There is actual road maintenance cost data available to help answer the professor’s concerns – no need for climate models. See http://reason.org/files/22nd_annual_highway_report.pdf Nice hot South Carolina has the lowest cost per mile while nice cold Maine ranks just below it at 5th (out of 50 States). There doesn’t seem to be an average-temperature effect there. Someone with better computer skills than I could plot State cost rankings versus State average temperature to see if there is a trend, but my eyeball says no.
Frost heaves make roads rougher.
Adding recycled plastic to stone mastic asphalt increases its durability and its resistance to water absorption
http://www.enggjournals.com/ijet/docs/IJET10-02-06-21.pdf
and more articles:
https://www.bing.com/search?q=adding+recycled+plastic+to+stone+mastic+asphalt&form=EDNTHT&mkt=en-us&httpsmsn=1&refig=6d1ea0af303a439ed1529652254af1d5&sp=-1&pq=undefined&sc=0-19&qs=n&sk=&cvid=6d1ea0af303a439ed1529652254af1d5,
This paper does help prove one thing, that academics are willing to sacrifice all ethical behaviour to get a few grant bucks from this scam
Somewhere out there is a netbot spewing out articles daily with a title:
“Climate change will make [noun] [comparative adjective]”
Climate change is already making dumb dumber.
this is the straw that broke this camels back, i try to have respect for people with degrees but no longer CAN, simply because they are LIARS as a group…….simple grade school science shows their claims about humans causing global warming are IDIOCY in the extreme….even the few that dispute them still say well humans do have an impact, which again on a global scale it total BS…..
“scenarios like RCP 8.5, in my opinion is alarmist and absurd.”
These RCP scenarios are yet another level of obfuscation increasing the separation between the faulty claims and the physical laws that quantifies how incredibly wrong those claims are. Currently, there are at least 4 levels of obfuscation between the controlling physics and the presumed effect and that they keep adding more uncertainty and wiggle room tells me that they know, or at least suspect, how wrong they are.
All they did was add to the +/- 50% uncertainty in the sensitivity with even more uncertainty in what the forcing will be while still assuming an absurdly high mean climate sensitivity. Adding all the uncertainties, the nominal effect from the RCP8.5 scenario has an accumulated uncertainty/error of more than +/- 100%, thus no change at all is within the range of possibilities.
Anyone who claims that science with this much uncertainty is settled is either a fool, has absolutely no understanding of how science works or is a stooge for the IPCC and/or the political left.
Not to disagree that frost and cold are harder on pavement than heat, but heat can cause blowups in the asphalt, when the asphalt expands upward. My father worked for the highway department and was always going out to repair these blowups. It was in the 1960’s when my father worked there. It’s not new in any way nor an indicator that the world is warming.
I have driven in nearly all continental US states, quite a bit with a trailer, and some of S Canada and N Mexico. I would bet temperature (cold as noted above) is the second most important factor. You could easily guess the first. Old recollections, but Arizona roads were better than Nova Scotia, not the latter’s fault.
I have always found the worst roads are in cold areas. Cold cities need to constantly repair roads because of damage from snow ice and salt. Warm areas get away with not fixing roads for years.
Another one for the dubious studies department.
Another vague nebulous study based on gross assumptions, a claimed “moderate” scenario and a tremendous amount of confirmation bias.
The authors’ solely focus on an asphalt road’s maximum temperatures during a year.
•* No explanation regarding how CO2 raises ground temperatures.
•* Zero research effort into why local, state and Federal governments choose certain grades of asphalt. •* Somehow, I doubt the majority of asphalt decisions are made based on a maximum estimated asphalt temperature during a very brief period of summer with maximum sunlight, that temperature is achieved. I’ll lay odds that cost of the material and cost of effort to apply that asphalt are primary drivers.
•* The author’s assume other studies into asphalt cracking and failure rates are caused by “climate change” and “maximum asphalt temperature”. Extremely odd, since every Northern state that I’ve lived in blamed a majority of asphalt failures on one or more of three things;
•* •* a) road usage by heavy traffic (weight of vehicles),
•* •* b) freeze/thaw cycles,
•* •* c) degree and depth of proper road subsurface preparation.
Fire the lot of them and demand any grant monies refunded.
Well, I do. Looks to me to be just another ivory tower Ph.D. jumping onto the CAGW gravy train to get a paper published and fluff up his CV. I very much doubt he’s a practicing CE who has actually specified and overseen road construction projects. I know several excellent CE’s who would tell you that this paper is nonsense and an insult to their competence.
Agreed.
It’s even an insult to my incompetence.
I don’t design roads in Arizona or Alaska (or any extreme temp area). I don’t give a crap about climate (existing, past of future) in road design. The temp range where I build roads is between 10 degrees and 115 degrees (Fahrenheit).
As stated by numerous people above, almost all of the damage/deterioration is associated with the cold (or with drainage problems; subgrade moisture changes).
Roads are “designed” to last 20 to 30 years; my local/collector roads have been in place about this time frame and by all appearances will be in good condition for another 20 years. (“My portion” of state highway is about 15 years old … not yet old enough to use for evaluation.) Even the roads I cheaped, and took a chance on, will double the design life. Minor increase in temp over the design life of a paving structure aren’t going to make any difference….
The private asphalt industry does, and will, spend a lot of time & money on research/evaluation of paving needs; and they don’t need this type of a study to help them.
I don’t do any work in Alaska or Arizona. The max temperature range where I do work is somewhere between 0 and 110 degrees (Fahrenheit). Given the lack of significant extremes, I don’t give a crap about temperature (average, high, or low) with respect to asphalt mix in my road design.
Typical road design is for 20-30 years. My oldest roads (local/collector) are about that age and appear that they will last another 20 years without any significant maintenance. “My ” section of state highway is about 15 years old now and it is also appearing that it will meet or beat its 30 year design life.
This study states that pavement designs should have differed in 35% of his 800 observed locations because of the stationary climate assumption of the designer. Jeez, maybe I shouldn’t admit it, but I made absolutely no assumptions about changing (or stationary) temperatures over the design life of my roads. I wonder if he would be interested in notifying those 280 engineers that, in his opinion, they screwed up.
As others above pointed out the cold is the primary parameter associated with paving degradation. They are all correct; cold, and poor drainage leading to subgrade failures, are the main problems. So, the benefit of any low end warming would vastly outweigh any cost associated differing ac mixes. If the author of the paper really cared about providing honest information he would have included this somewhere.
As we’re all due to be driving (or will Big Brother be driving) shiny lovely new electric cars, why not just make the wheels bigger?
That’ll give a smoother ride.
Or let some air out of the tyres…
Use tyres like ATV quad bikes have…
Eat huge amounts of pizza (or any other carb) to develop a massive fat arse, in exact inverse proportion to what the pizza does to your brain, and get a smoother ride that way.
What is wrong with these people?
Oh look, they’ve gone down to Pizza Hut………………
Why do you hate pizza?
If bigger wheels helped the ride that much my 18 wheeler wouldn’t have shocks and air bladders supporting the cab and an air bladders under each seat. And my Window mounted GPS wouldn’t occasionally get Jared off its mount.