By Henry Bodkin
18 September 2017 • 7:15pm
Climate change poses less of an immediate threat to the planet than previously thought because scientists got their modelling wrong, a new study has found. New research by British scientists reveals the world is being polluted and warming up less quickly than 10-year-old forecasts predicted, giving countries more time to get a grip on their carbon output.
An unexpected “revolution” in affordable renewable energy has also contributed to the more positive outlook.
Experts now say there is a two-in-three chance of keeping global temperatures within 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the ultimate goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
They also condemned the “overreaction” to the US’s withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, announced by Donald Trump in June, saying it is unlikely to make a significant difference.
According to the models used to draw up the agreement, the world ought now to be 1.3 degrees above the mid-19th-Century average, whereas the most recent observations suggest it is actually between 0.9 to 1 degree above.
The discrepancy means nations could continue emitting carbon dioxide at the current rate for another 20 years before the target was breached, instead of the three to five predicted by the previous model.
“When you are talking about a budget of 1.5 degrees, then a 0.3 degree difference is a big deal”, said Professor Myles Allen, of Oxford University and one of the authors of the new study.
Published in the journal Nature Geoscience, it suggests that if polluting peaks and then declines to below current levels before 2030 and then continue to drop more sharply, there is a 66 per cent chance of global average temperatures staying below 1.5 degrees.
The goal was yesterday described as “very ambitious” but “physically possible”.
Another reason the climate outlook is less bleak than previously thought is stabilising emissions, particularly in China.
And here is the original press release.
HT | Pablo an ex Pat
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Now they can say, see we fixed the problem, oh yippy!
They will have a problem taking the credit if
A) Human CO2 emissions continue to rise
B) Natural emissions continue to rise
C) Both A and B happen in tandem
They will have to explain how rising CO2 is not warming the planet.
SteveT
No they won’t. They’ll just yell “Look over there!” and hare off on some other wild goose chase…
Uncle Gus is right – how many times have they changed their story, so far? Does that seem to bother any of their marching brooms?
well if US being in or out will not make a significant difference Trump was very wise to pull out, stop dumping massive contributions into the UNFCCCP slush fund and ruining the US economy and losing jobs.
In fact if US dropping out does not make a difference, I guess just about everyone else can say the same.
They have just admitted the whole damn thing is pointless.
All this depends on the debatable temperature data of the warmers and their models. The planet is not in thermodynamic equilibrium. There cannot be a measure of its average temperature, to say little of the decimal places now being cited. It`s the Sun stupid.
So…the _models_ are worse than we thought?
(Apologies for the duplicate comment on the David Middleton post – I think this comment fits here better)
My earlier post is about the same article.
Yes, David, your post was first and I read it first.
However, I prefer the more measured tone of Henry’s description, without the derogatory “idoitic”, “anyone with an IQ”, and inclusion of Carlin’s f-bombs.
Difference of style, not of subject matter.
This post is just a quoted passage from the Telegraph article. My post is a sarcastic shredding of the comments from the paper’s authors that appeared in the Telegraph article… 😉
Actually the links place a number 2 in David’s post, so it is possible that this article was posted first.
They may have been simultaneous. Both are listed as “51 mins ago September 19, 2017.” It’s not the first time Charles and I have posted the same article at nearly the same time… “Great minds…” 😉
My posts are generally scheduled the previous evening and tend to be on the hour, sometimes the half hour.
How did we hit it on the minute? Do we have some sort of ESPN connection? LOL!
Notice….every time something doesn’t go their way…they move the goal posts again….
Waiting on Hillary for president now…..then they will ramp it up
The models (for want of a better word) have been developed because of that nasty gas CO2.
The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.
If only members of governments would read these sort of studies and compare them to the CAGW propaganda, there might be a little progress in the matter.
Does this mean hurricanes are just… hurricanes?
Nah…..Haven’t you noticed? Hurricanes are wind driven mud storms.
Often it takes a simple solution to correct a problem that is blamed on man-made Gorebull warming. Bringing back the wolves brought back many other species-
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=yellowstone+park+wolves
..According to the models used to draw up the agreement, the world ought now to be 1.3 degrees above the mid-19th-Century average, whereas the most recent observations suggest it is actually between 0.9 to 1 degree above…..
So… the mid-19th-Century average is what we should be aiming for? That would be around the middle of the Little Ice Age?
Perhaps the IPCC has investments in skiing…?
According too the IPCC, roughly half of the recent warming is due to CO2. The rest is natural. So if recent warming amounts to 1C, then roughly 0.5C is thought due to CO2. The models say it should be 1.3C. Sounds like the discrepancy is 0.8C, not 0.3C. Seems even the climate cabal’s reports of error are erroneous.
A very worthwhile point and compelling evidence we are dealing with incompetence coupled with lies that there is anything untoward gong on with the climate.
Exactly right.
Because climate sensitivity is very low.
The press release is still rather supportive of the Paris Accord and drastic reductions in CO2. It doesn’t really explain how they got it wrong. It also does not explain what the 0.9 to 1.0 degree is from. Are those the (corrected, er bastardized) terrestrial records or the satellite records? If we used their numbers with satellite temps could we just ignore this whole made up disaster? Can we just interpret this as ass-covering so that they don’t lose all credibility in another 5 years?
yes…..yes……yes
I went to this article from Drudge, expecting something entirely different after reading Telegraph’s headline. Should have known better.
And if a simpler analysis yields better results, perhaps I could get a nice grant for the calculations I wrote on the back of this napkin here?
There, fixed it.
This is just a case of changing the goal posts. They know very well that the dire predictions wont happen so to save face they will keep pushing the goal posts out further and further.
– Disaster is coming
– Wait, its not as bad as we thought
Repeat ad infinitum
He’s obfuscating. What he’s trying to say is it wasn’t as bad as we didn’t think it never was.
Perhaps the big deal is that the story is being carried in the mainstream media. Some time early this morning I heard a promo for an interview on the CBC radio with someone who points out that the planet is greening and many species are thriving and spreading.
I have been hoping that some time soon the mainstream media would start backing down from their CAGW propaganda position.
One of the easiest experiments to run…is a limiting experiment
…when you can add only one ingredient and get a marked response..you usually have it
Adding nothing but CO2 and getting this sort of response….pretty much nails CO2 was limiting
Cleverly threaded. To fall into the back of his own colleagues (model makers) so that the political aims (reorganization of the society and the energy sector to the goldgrass billionaires Gore & Co.) still seem to be achievable and thus the public can be aroused again. But in vain ( German, schwäbisch: Scheißebächle) . The mistake of the models is in the long term greater than 0.3 degrees C. And even with the previous, supposedly wrong modellings of the models, one no longer lures a dog behind the stove. Since it is clear that more CO2 is a benefit for all. Therefore a paper for the toilet as a replacement for toilet paper. Where is the original work? All that is to be read is the press release or have I overlooked something?
Climatism is screwed…
Griff’s Global Warming alarmist propaganda has utterly failed!
“Published in the journal Nature Geoscience, it suggests that if polluting peaks and then declines to below current levels before 2030…”
When is “pollution” not pollution. When it is CO2 (aka-plant food).
In many ways, climate science seems to follow along the same line of thinking that Dr. Benjamin Spock did as he wrote his child rearing books. After many years of pushing his original book, he rewrote his book and then went out and pushed it. When asked about why, he said something to the affect that his original book had some errors in it, but his new book has it all correct now. Climate science seems to be walking that same trail – their original scare tactics had errors in it, but the new scare tactics have it right. Well, at least until the next set of scare tactics come out. But the bottom line when it comes to “modeling” is that you can only model what you know, and they appear to actually know next to nothing about weather and climate. You can, however, simulate nearly anything as long as you know something about it and keep it as simple as possible. That is why things like Dr. Evan’s “model” or the one proposed by Lord Monckton tend to work better when it comes to prediction.
But one thing is clear, when you create a model, you do so by defining the characteristics of the model purposefully, or it can’t produce what you expect it to. Thus the IPCC models were always intended to show a relationship between CO2 and temperature, regardless of whether there was an actual relationship or not. The model had no choice.
So now it is admitted that the Climate Models that they have used to ‘prove’ the theory of catastrophic man-made climate change are wrong. Not just a little bit wrong but out by anything from 30% to 50% wrong. The spin put on this is that it is a good thing because it means we have a chance to meet the goal of 1.5 degrees (whatever that means) but only if we double down on our efforts to reduce CO2 emissions.
What it really means is that the alarmists have admitted fallibility. They have actually admitted that they are wrong, and wrong big-time too. The models, which do not forget we were told that these models ran on computers so expensive and modern that they could never make any mistake, we are now told that they are trash, but nevertheless everything else we have ever been told is still all true and it’s still bad but, for once, it’s not ‘worse than we thought’. Their man made warming theory pretty much rested on their models though, because it was the output from these that ‘proved’ the theory that CO2 is boiling the planet. So, with the models gone, the theory has gone too. It only takes one thing to disprove a theory and this is that one thing.
Once the spin has been countered this should be the start of the end of the Climate Change scam. I read the story first in The Times and was heartened to see that pretty much everyone who commented on it said the same thing; that the theory is now disproved and dead because they have admitted being wrong, so therefore why should we not assume that everything else ‘they’ said is wrong too?
100% wrong. What would it mean, 50% wrong?
Probably this will lessen depression and/or hysteria among some believers and calm their comments.
And the children that can’t sleep at night … in the interest of their kids’ mental health, will at least one of the parents let them know that their bubble compatriots (and what was essentially their religion) was very wrong.
Or would that be even worse for the minds of the coddled little wonders of nature? Seems that those psychologists turned climate scientists may want (or need) to get involved. it would be for the children
but I’ll miss the fun we have here. Surely the control freaks will come at us with something new before they end this one.
The 1.5 degrees above what they sort of think the temperature was in 1850 that cannot be measured that closely due to absent records for most of the world 1.5 degrees that they arbitrarily decided on?
I think this is about as silly as arguing over whether Adam had a navel on being several layers of assumptions deep.