With the natural disasters of hurricanes Harvey and Irma, we have once again seen the unlimited capacity of politicians and their funding-hungry toadies (climate scientists), and of mainstream media and business persons……to use the misfortunes of others to promote political agendas, and to sell advertising space and product.
There’s no reason for me to cite examples. They’re everywhere. Be my guest and add some to the comments.
Still on holiday.
Ciao!
Bob
First time ever, 2 Cat 4 hurricanes make US landfall in same season. Fortune, and Weather Underground now regurgitating the same fake news. Ref. The hurricane tracker app. How can you ask $3.99 for an app that is wrong?Curious to see how long it takes for NYT, and Wash. Post to pick up on this huge factoid. I’m no Trump fan, but I know what he would say…”SAD”
CO2 iwas, what 80 in 1915.
Firing up the popcorn popper, and prayers for the suffering in FL, TX.
The main stream media hosting talking heads who claim Irma and Harvey support the Climate Change hypothesis was directly predicted by Rush Limbaugh.
Now the MSM is doing everything it can to prove Limbaugh had them pegged.
While their not blaming the hurricane on Co2 just yet it’s starting to get more like a rant than news .
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-11/gas-not-coal-the-fix-to-australias-soaring-electricity-prices/8890818
Could someone please tell me how it is that temperature is somehow a proxy for climate? It make me think of measuring climate by air pressure, or moisture content or airspeed or,,, or,,, or,, If I measured an aircraft’s performance by altitude, or automobiles by only the horsepower rating..I would be branded a fool.
Maybe I am,,, probably I am, hmmm.
All this temperature graph stuff is much to do about absolutely nothing. 20 C in a desert is much different than 20C in a rain forest.
Note to statistics and psychology researchers. For future dissertation:
“An analysis of the Percentage of Florida Residents that Evacuated Hurricane Irma Based Solely on the False Statistical Premise that ‘We are due for one.'”
Interesting question for future public safety announcements when crafting their message and for marketers trying to sell hurricane related products.
Great to see you back on WUWT, Bob!
There will be a lot of ‘splaining to do after this saga is over.
The Clintons said that everyone to paint their roof white a few years ago…
Still waiting for them to do it but here is the latest:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-10/clinton-private-rooftop-garden-obscene-violation-charity-law-principles
https://www.google.com/amp/s/wattsupwiththat.com/2011/07/18/clintons-solution-for-the-jobs-crisis-painters/amp/
“Disasters like Harvey show need for more efficient cars” [Ron Freund, chair of Electric Auto Association.
http://www.eastbaytimes.com/2017/09/09/opinion-climate-change-disaster-like-harvey-needs-smart-response/
Imagine evacuating Houston in an electric car. You drive for 200 miles, stop for 30 minutes to recharge – that’s if you are the only one. More likely there would be ten cars ahead of you, that’s a five hour wait before your turn.
Today’s electric car is not quite there. It is the last thing you want to drive in a disaster. I find this kind of advocacy disgusting and offensive. Does Ron really take me for an idiot?
So what happens when electric cars get stuck in 3 or feet of water?
Boom?
Spent enough time in the USN to know nothing is waterproof (other then subs).
Including USS Thresher?
The Thresher was waterproof, until it wasn’t.
This is the day alarmist have dreamt of for 30 years. SICK !!
And you read accounts of this & they clearly can give a flying f*ck about the people affected , have no empathy what so ever (but they are supposed to be the “sensitive” ones). Bullsh*t! They only care about pushing their elitist socialist agenda and putting money in their pockets in the ultimate passive aggressive move of all times. The media has zero ability to publish anything that isn’t op-ed. You have reporters who flunked 3rd grade science acting as if they know exactly why all this happened … and they sure that it is your fault and it is not their fault because they are righteous and you are not.
Society pretends to be so sophisticated but truth be told, we be are only a hair above witch trials and superstition from 100’s of years ago.
In less than 2 weeks it will be a year since Colorado University’s Sea Level Group updated their web page:
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
I expect that when they finally publish the next release that they will “find” the acceleration in sea level rise that they’ve been hoping and praying for over the last decade or so.
CBS 60 Minutes ran a segment tonight on the Arctic that started off with:
and contued a little bit later with:
Doesn’t it have to be above zero for ice to melt?
How stupid do they think we all are?
Here’s the link:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-arctic-frontier-lesley-stahl-2/
Is Lesley Stahl still around ?
Remember when she did her first interview. It was with Moses.
EW3 – was that the one in which Moses said: “I talked him down to ten, but unfortunately adultery is still in?”
Uh, that’s +32 degrees F for freezing. Mind in the Celsius cloud, Steve.
Minus 6 degrees F is freaking cold! My rule was we stopped mushing dogs at minus 20.
It would be wonderful if science would use Kelvin all the time for everything. And Uh yes, I got caught up in the Fahrenheit Celsius Centigrade mess.
So thanks, I guess, for pointing out my screw-up.
At least I know someone read my comment.
Florida Wind Speed Map:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/Current.aspx?location=USFL0372
…and this…
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/Current.aspx?location=USFL0372
Yep – I sure did miss your earlier comment/link.
Both Harvey and Irma made landfall at 130 mph. The rating system was changed in 2012. 130mph used to be considered Cat 3. Now it is Cat 4. But the change doesn’t affect old ratings. So we are comparing apples to oranges. These are both Cat 3 storm by historical standards. The change helps hype climate hysteria, though. If not for the change, there could be no hype that two Cat 4s hit in one year.
Who cares? Random weather, in any analysis. The climate is the same as it has been for at least a Century. A little warmer, a little colder is not climate.
Irma, and what’s left of Irma, will now just become the I-75 low pressure system. It’ll meander up I-75 all the way to Atlanta, then Chattanooga, Nashville, turn right and stay on I-75 all the way to Cincinnati. Dumping rain all along the way.
What are the chances of Joel finishing it’s predicted wrap around and then continuing west right into West Palm Beach?
zero
So, Key West is still there. The Hemingway museum did not lose a single six-toed cat and the West Coast storm surge seems to be about 1/3 to 1/6 predicted.
Highway 1 looks intact. What is called utter devastation in Naples is a drone shot of a mobile home park with one unit destroyed, a gas station with an awning blown off, and some buildings destroyed at the airport.
The East Coast storm surge appears worse. Serious flooding in Miami. Some cranes and a building or two collapsed. As far as we’ve seen.
Florida’s going to bounce back from this very rapidly. I’m guessing far less damage than Harvey.
What we ought to have is a prediction market that allows bets on hurricane outcomes. Too bad Intrade is gone.
So there will be less compliance the next time they cry wolf—and, mayhap, there IS a wolf.
People with foresight take this into account. Not so alarmists and sensationalists.
Charles, how about a new thread on Irma’s underperformance?
I was proposing that to Anthony earlier as I’m not really qualified to write it.
But to be clear, I don’t think precautions or warnings were unwarranted. I’ve spent the last five days helping a friend who lives near Myrtle Beach prepare to head inland in a convoy of 7 cats, 3 dogs, an elderly man with dementia, a teenager, and 5 other adults. As her evacuation became unnecessary as forecasts changed there was no regret. There is nothing wrong for planning for worse case scenarios. A storm track 50 to 100 miles west and it could have been a complete different story for the Florida west coast. But by coming on shore and tracking inland it diminished quickly.
Mostly what bothers me is the hype at inappropriate times.
“In Naples the surge was 8 feet in 90 minutes.” They don’t mention it started off at a negative 4 feet.
But just watching the reporter broadcast from the eyewall in Naples with all the buildings around him undamaged, the trees upright, and the reporter being able to stand in the wind, was my first clue that this wasn’t nearly as bad as feared. Yeah, the wind gusts at Naples airport were real and did damage, but this WAS the landfall, and apparently Irma diminished in strength rapidly.
Then the Naples drone footage of what appeared to be a trailer park with floods in the street but not even reaching any of the units made me wonder about the level of storm surge.
The story of Irma is not the hurricane’s underperformance.
The story is the underperformance in forecasting skill of both track and intensity by NOAA and the NHC most especially their GFS model.
Here is a primer that has good data from last Friday.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-forecast-models-have-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurricane-irma/
From the article, Joel, I conclude NOAA has been neglecting its mandate, probably in favor of the sexy climate change meme.
OK, so hurricane forecasting models suck, but the GCMs can tell us precisely what the WX will be in AD 2100.
Right!
Charles, that is what I see thus far.
I would greatly appreciate a good post on this.
We have Cantori on the North eye wall while the W.C. is reporting strong Cat 3 with strong CAT 4 level gusts. He is standing with no real struggle and a pile of broken off palm frounds behind him, laying in the parking lot for hours, not blowing away in the wind. The upper box of the picture shows constantly changing wind speeds and gusts. The maximum was, as I recall, 64 mph sustained, 84 mph gust, on the friggin north eye wall.
As you said, the surge on the entire west coast was about 1/2 of the predicted MINIMUM. The surge, the damage, and the ground based readings indicate a CAT 1 or maybe two.
I am tired of Ristvan, ( whom I admire) saying these claims give skeptics a bad name. It is simple. Show me damage and ground based wind speed readings consistent with CAT 4 and CAT 3 hurricanes and I will stop questioning.
I should add, show me damage with Irma ( not tornado damage) consistent with any other CAT 4 Landfall hurricane, ( besides Harvey) and that with appropriate ground based wind, and I will not question.
Finally, a good estimate quantifying past hurricanes likely under estimation due to lack of ability and resources that are now available, would be great!
The past ACE needs to be adjusted up.
I wonder if Rud is getting any sleep tonight?
He obviously chose not to evacuate… if he posted that fact, I must have missed it.
He hasn’t posted on Judy’s site in many hours.
“So, Key West is still there. The Hemingway museum did not lose a single six-toed cat and the West Coast storm surge seems to be about 1/3 to 1/6 predicted.”
I just read that the worst of the storm surge there is yet to come.
That makes no sense, although it is currently rising in Fort Myers and Clearwater. I’m keeping my eye on those two for a friend.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/view.html?name=IRMA
Charles, this is also a good link for any states current wind speed and top gusts.
Ristivan was in an area of the strongest bands, and as the eye collapsed, (Cantori calling it a dirty eye) these bands became a bit stronger, like the energy expanded out in a last gasp, and the east coast where Ristavan lives had stronger winds then the former eye. Weird, but I watched it.
However the ground readings on the strong east coast bands were not hurricane force sustained.
http://mesowest.utah.edu/
Here is the link.
On the West coast of Florida there will be onshore winds south of the eye so the peak storm surge will occur after the eye has passed. On the east coast it will come before the center has passed.
Yes, but not 12 hours later.
Charles, try my link just above now. Select Florida. Select wind speed or gusts. Click on any station on the map.
Get a time graphic showing both speed and top gusts for that station.
Nothing in Florida now above tropical storm.
Your link shows Clearwater at 30 mph, mine shows 50 mph. This is why neither one of us is really qualified to write this up.
Damage estimates have already dropped 75% from earlier predictions.
Thanks Charles and I agree. Yet I will ask questions and wish for a good write up. I can see different parts of a county having disparate micro cells giving 20 mph variance. Which brings up the thought of modern instruments catching peaks missed in the past.
The link I gave showed a time graphic, a recording of that spot over several hours, and such peaks are not uncommon.
Also I agree that it is good to prepare for the worst, hope for the best, yet the ” experts” could use a dose of humility and the news broadcasters were absurdly trying to talk up the tempest.
I was watching one guy on the W.C. drive down a street in Miami, the leaves on the trees were barely moving, the puddles had no ripples, all the street debris were not moving; I switched to MSNBC and they were showing a map with the entire width of Florida including Miami under hurricane conditions. Fake news indeed.
Then why have the tide gauge readings all subsided after peaking.?
What I read is that winds will come in the reverse direction and push water higher, or there will be a natural rebound effect. (Maybe I misinterpreted what I read, or it was outdated. Let’s hope so.)
The other side of the storm passed hours ago. That was the storm surge.
Indeed, that was the 4 feet BELOW sans storm tide expectation, followed by 4 feet above. A 4.2 foot surge in Naples.
A change in some region’s seasonal weather conditions cannot be CAUSED by climate change. Local conditions, for the time of year, for some particular region, over an extended period (30 years) CONSTITUTES climate. My height is not caused by the distance of my head from the ground.
This point cannot be hammered on too often.
So I’m guessing the mayor of Miami Beach Philip Levine calling Irma a “nuclear hurricane” was unwise. Many who evacuated this time won’t next time. Perhaps it is time to re-think the whole mass evacuation thing anyway. May cause more harm than good.
Let’s hope Turnbull ignores all she says.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/grandmother-plant-exun-climate-chief-christiana-figueres-has-advice-for-pm-20170910-gyerob.html
I am sure most Australians are unaware of how anti-human she is.
Having spent all day yesterday sorting and loading three 45foot box trailers of relief supplies(and seeing parts of a truly horrendous Stillerz game) I can honestly say I am tired of shysters of all kinds. And listening to radio this morning the “news” is still talking about Irma destroying,currently, at this moment, FLA when Irma is currently,at this moment, on top of Georgia and South Carolina. These morons, with billions of dollars of technology at their disposal can’t even keep up with current events.
Between the eclipse and hurricanes, I haven’t had a chance to pay attention to upcoming Arctic sea ice minimum at https://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/
The NSIDC may be wishing they ran their graph down to zero:
Low, but far from a record low.
How’s the NW Passage doing this season?
Yesterday, 2017 was tied with 2008, while higher than 2007, 2011, 2012, 2015 and 2016. It could end up higher than 2008 and 2010, too.
The inconvenient truth is that Arctic sea ice extent has been growing since 2012. Five years in a row without a new low record is unprecedented since 1979!
Griff has preserved his unprecedented record of always being wrong.
According to JAXA we’ve already passed the minimum for this year.