Guest post by David Middleton
I didn’t realize this was “Apocalypse Week”….
Nasa’s ambitious plan to save Earth from a supervolcano
With an eruption brewing, it may be the only way to prevent the extinction of the human race.
17 August 2017
Lying beneath the tranquil settings of Yellowstone National Park in the US lies an enormous magma chamber. It’s responsible for the geysers and hot springs that define the area, but for scientists at Nasa, it’s also one of the greatest natural threats to human civilisation as we know it: a potential supervolcano.
Following an article we published about supervolcanoes last month, a group of Nasa researchers got in touch to share a report previously unseen outside the space agency about the threat – and what could be done about it.
“I was a member of the Nasa Advisory Council on Planetary Defense which studied ways for Nasa to defend the planet from asteroids and comets,” explains Brian Wilcox of Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) at the California Institute of Technology. “I came to the conclusion during that study that the supervolcano threat is substantially greater than the asteroid or comet threat.”
[…]
Notes to the Beeb:
- It’s NASA, not Nasa.
- Civilization has a “z” in it.
- Yellowstone is a supervolcano, not a potential supervolcano.
If “the supervolcano threat is substantially greater than the asteroid or comet threat,” does this mean we can stop fretting about Gorebal Warming and the Sixth Mass Extinction? Is NASA really moving on to actual threats to the planet? Well, not threats to the planet… The planet has handled supervolcanoes, asteroids and comets quite well over its 4.5 billion year lifespan.
I’ll rephrase the question: Is NASA actually taking on genuine threats to humanity? Or at least threats to these United States? Let’s return to the article and find out…
READ MORE:
- Would a supervolcano wipe us out?
- The greatest threats to humanity as we know it
- The atomic bomb too big to use
There are around 20 known supervolcanoes on Earth, with major eruptions occurring on average once every 100,000 years. One of the greatest threats an eruption may pose is thought to be starvation, with a prolonged volcanic winter potentially prohibiting civilisation from having enough food for the current population. In 2012, the United Nations estimated that food reserves worldwide would last 74 days.
[…]
That’s “funny.” One of the “solutions” proposed for Gorebal Warming is geoengineering a volcanic winter by pumping sulfate aerosols into the upper atmosphere. Maybe we just need to ramp up GHG emissions now, so that when Yellowstone does pop off another Ultra-Plinian eruption, Earth will be warm enough to handle a volcanic winter. A more pertinent concern is how we’ll handle having much of our nation covered with volcanic ash…
As bad as the eruption and lava flows would be, the tephra deposition would be even worse.
From Mastin et al., 2014: “Table 3. Average, Maximum, and Minimum Deposit Thicknesses at Selected Cities, From Simulations Illustrated in Figures 6-8a”
| City | Distance km | Longitude | Latitude | Thickness (mm) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average | Minimum | Maximum | ||||
|
||||||
| Albuquerque | 1091 | −106.61 | 35.111 | 24.9 | 4.1 | 73.9 |
| Atlanta | 2556 | −84.387 | 33.748 | 3.1 | 0.5 | 6.5 |
| Austin | 1942 | −97.743 | 30.267 | 2 | 0.1 | 4.2 |
| Billings | 227 | −108.501 | 45.783 | 1429.5 | 1028.7 | 1785.6 |
| Boise | 452 | −116.215 | 43.619 | 144.8 | 26.9 | 347.9 |
| Calgary | 777 | −114.058 | 51.045 | 32.8 | 1.8 | 68.2 |
| Casper | 391 | −106.313 | 42.867 | 516.9 | 325.9 | 844.3 |
| Cheyenne | 600 | −104.82 | 41.14 | 152.9 | 96.3 | 274.4 |
| Chicago | 1887 | −87.63 | 41.877 | 14.9 | 5.5 | 29.4 |
| Denver | 700 | −104.985 | 39.737 | 98.1 | 63.6 | 131.9 |
| Des Moines | 1420 | −93.609 | 41.601 | 40 | 19.9 | 59.6 |
| Fargo | 1111 | −96.789 | 46.877 | 57.7 | 22.9 | 78.6 |
| Flagstaff | 1028 | −111.639 | 35.201 | 16.3 | 0 | 50.6 |
| Kansas City | 1454 | −94.621 | 39.114 | 31.7 | 7 | 57.2 |
| Knoxville | 2455 | −83.92 | 35.96 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 10.5 |
| Lincoln | 1211 | −96.682 | 40.807 | 52.9 | 22.6 | 88.5 |
| Little Rock | 1905 | −92.289 | 34.746 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 25.2 |
| Los Angeles | 1323 | −118.244 | 34.052 | 5.2 | 0 | 27 |
| Miami | 3453 | −80.226 | 25.788 | 0.5 | 0 | 1.7 |
| Minneapolis | 1374 | −93.267 | 44.983 | 39.2 | 23.2 | 53.5 |
| Missoula | 375 | −114.019 | 46.86 | 240.6 | 48 | 474.4 |
| Mobile | 2508 | −88.043 | 30.694 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 3.9 |
| New York | 3025 | −74.004 | 40.714 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 3.7 |
| Portland | 950 | −122.676 | 45.523 | 8.3 | 0 | 30.6 |
| Raleigh | 2884 | −78.639 | 35.772 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 4.5 |
| Rapid City | 593 | −103.231 | 44.08 | 208.3 | 168.2 | 330.2 |
| St. Louis | 1819 | −90.199 | 38.627 | 15.3 | 3 | 32.5 |
| Salt Lake City | 419 | −111.891 | 40.761 | 247.9 | 124.9 | 408.3 |
| San Francisco | 1229 | −122.419 | 37.775 | 8.5 | 0 | 44.7 |
| Seattle | 966 | −122.332 | 47.606 | 9.2 | 0 | 41.2 |
| Toronto | 2498 | −79.383 | 43.653 | 3.7 | 2 | 6.2 |
| Washington DC | 2855 | −77.036 | 38.907 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 4.4 |
| Winnipeg | 1188 | −97.137 | 49.899 | 37.9 | 14.3 | 59.1 |
A Plinian or Ultra-Plinian eruption of Yellowstone would be really bad.
So… How does NASA plan to save us from this? Back to the Beeb:
When Nasa scientists came to consider the problem, they found that the most logical solution could simply be to cool a supervolcano down. A volcano the size of Yellowstone is essentially a gigantic heat generator, equivalent to six industrial power plants. Yellowstone currently leaks about 60-70% of the heat coming up from below into the atmosphere, via water which seeps into the magma chamber through cracks. The remainder builds up inside the magma, enabling it to dissolve more and more volatile gases and surrounding rocks. Once this heat reaches a certain threshold, then an explosive eruption is inevitable.
But if more of the heat could be extracted, then the supervolcano would never erupt. Nasa estimates that if a 35% increase in heat transfer could be achieved from its magma chamber, Yellowstone would no longer pose a threat. The only question is how?
[…]
Instead Nasa have conceived a very different plan. They believe the most viable solution could be to drill up to 10km down into the supervolcano, and pump down water at high pressure. The circulating water would return at a temperature of around 350C (662F), thus slowly day by day extracting heat from the volcano. And while such a project would come at an estimated cost of around $3.46bn (£2.69bn), it comes with an enticing catch which could convince politicians to make the investment.
“Yellowstone currently leaks around 6GW in heat,” Wilcox says. “Through drilling in this way, it could be used to create a geothermal plant, which generates electric power at extremely competitive prices of around $0.10/kWh. You would have to give the geothermal companies incentives to drill somewhat deeper and use hotter water than they usually would, but you would pay back your initial investment, and get electricity which can power the surrounding area for a period of potentially tens of thousands of years. And the long-term benefit is that you prevent a future supervolcano eruption which would devastate humanity.”
[…]
Sounds like a win-win! Save humanity from both Yellowstone and from solar power!
So… What’s the catch?
But drilling into a supervolcano does not come without certain risks. Namely triggering the eruption you’re intending to prevent.
“The most important thing with this is to do no harm,” Wilcox says. “If you drill into the top of the magma chamber and try and cool it from there, this would be very risky. This could make the cap over the magma chamber more brittle and prone to fracture. And you might trigger the release of harmful volatile gases in the magma at the top of the chamber which would otherwise not be released.”
So… NASA proposes to drill these geothermal wells under the magma chamber and extract the heat from below. Sounds like they need to hire the world’s best “deep core drillers”… Again…
Instead, the idea is to drill in from the supervolcano from the lower sides, starting outside the boundaries of Yellowstone National Park, and extracting the heat from the underside of the magma chamber. “This way you’re preventing the heat coming up from below from ever reaching the top of the chamber which is where the real threat arises,” Wilcox says.
However those who instigate such a project will never see it to completion, or even have an idea whether it might be successful within their lifetime. Cooling Yellowstone in this manner would happen at a rate of one metre a year, taking of the order of tens of thousands of years until just cold rock was left. Although Yellowstone’s magma chamber would not need to be frozen solid to reach the point where it no longer posed a threat, there would be no guarantee that the endeavour would ultimately be successful for at least hundreds and possibly thousands of years.
[…]
Such a plan could be potentially applied to every active supervolcano on the planet, and Nasa’s scientists are hoping that their blueprints will encourage more practical scientific discussion and debate for tackling the threat.
[…]
It’s “meter,” not metre and there’s no “u” in endeavor… And such a plan might not cool the magma chamber at all…
The lower part of the magma chamber is about 10 miles deep. The magma reservoir goes down to the top of the mantle (~30 miles deep). The deepest geothermal well drilled to date, only goes down a bit over 3 miles.
Iceland is drilling the world’s deepest geothermal well
By Kesavan Unnikrishnan Jan 22, 2017 in Technology
Iceland is digging world’s deepest geothermal borehole into the heart of a volcano at a depth of 3.10 miles (5 km) to tap renewable energy. The extreme pressure and heat at such depths could derive 30 to 50 MW of electricity from one geothermal well.
[…]
Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/tech-and-science/technology/iceland-is-drilling-the-world-s-hottest-geothermal-well/article/484178#ixzz4q6rLq5Xs
10 miles is 52,800 feet. The deepest well ever drilled for any reason, the Kola Superdeep Borehole in Russia, only went down 40,230 feet. Prior to this, the deepest well was the 31,441 feet deep Lone Star Producing Co. 1–27 Bertha Rogers well in Washita County, Oklahoma. In a note of totally unrelated trivia: Lone Star Producing became Enserch Exploration, my first employer in the oil “bidness.” The Bertha Rogers TD’ed (reached total depth) in molten sulfur. Enserch’s executives all had sulfur paperweights from the Bertha Rogers.
While I am happy to find out that at least some folks at NASA are actually considering genuine threats to this nation and the other people on this planet… Their proposed solution to the supervolcano threat appears to be straight out of Fantasy Land.
Note: Yes, I know the BBC is British and that we are “two peoples separated by a common language.” I just like poking fun at the way they misspell so many words.
Reference
[1] Mastin L. G. Van Eaton A. R. Lowenstern J. B. (2014). Modeling ash fall distribution from a Yellowstone supereruption. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 15, 3459–3475.
Further Reading
[1] Kummer, Larry (2017). Geologists warn us about dangerous volcanoes. Will we spend pennies for warnings? Watts Up With That?
The solution:
1. Create a committee of geologists to study the problem.
2. Build huge, ultra complex models of the relevant geology.
3. Buy bigger computers.
4. Create a new Federal Department of Volcano Groping.
5. Raise taxes.
6. Evacuate all the residents, whether they want it or not.
7. Raise taxes again.
8. Buy bigger computers again.
9. Create a global totalitarian Socialist government
10. Announce that the problem is solved. Kill all who disagree
That will not correct the very serious ongoing spelling issues that are preventing the human race from solving its problems!
John Harmsworth
“That will not correct the very serious ongoing spelling issues that are preventing the human race from solving its problems!”
Indeed sir. We must seek government funding to escalate the spelling crisis to global proportions. We must terrorise the global community to spell to our command.
NEVER relent.
NEVER FAIL.
CHANGE THE WORLD ONE SPELLING BEE AT A TIME!
VE VILL PREVAIL.
ZE CLIMATE CRUSADE HAF GIVEN UZ DIRECTION.
NOTHING LES ZAN GLOBAL DOMINATION IS OUR GOAL.
CORRECT ZE VORLD’S SPELLING MIZTAKES AND GLOBAL DOMINATION IS AT OUR FEET.
HE’LL HIT HER!
That went well, did it not Herr Gobbler? Stop, STOP, don’t live up to your name, besides, I’m not in the mood.
Showing your chauvinism there, dude. Civilisation in ENGLISH has an ‘s’, not a ‘z’
chauvinizm has a ‘z’, not an ‘s’
rbabcock
Whoosh.
There are two kinds of countries in the world. Those that use Metres, and those that have put a man on the moon. XD
There are two kinds of countries in the world. Those that use Metres, and those that crash into Mars
Oh yes! Well played!
Only in pig English are the Z and U relevant. Otherwise those spellings are correct. and AN does not come before H too Americans.
😀
Mark – Helsinki
too = to
Ahem.
? Too=also!
Here’s a thought.
Why not kill 3 birds with one stone?
Take all those geoengineering dudes off of solutions to the caGW non-problem and put them on how to turn Yellowstone into a giant cannon to shoot down any asteroids that get too close?
(Of course, the trigger mechanism for the super-volcano might be a problem. But it would keep them out of trouble for awhile.)
Gunga Din
Easy, just round up all the Charlottesville white supremacists, give them a free bar for the night, and tell them the hole in the ground is the urinal.
4 birds!
😎
But I think you might be being a bit limited by only adding “white” supremacists. Include all those who would be supremacists!
(But I guess the Audubon Society would shoot the idea down unless the cannon was shaped like a windmill.8-)
Gunga Din
Good point. Bigotry is a double edged sword.
Another fantasy project. NASA, Not Another Silly Analysis
NASA is the great creator of PowerPoint space exploration programs.
The one and only rocket designed by NASA (it wasn’t even NASA just yet) was the Mercury Redstone rocket (and that program was actually conducted by the US Army).
They haven’t built anything since, but they do maintain some nice testing facilities..
Getting geothermal power from Yellowstone will prevent an eruption about the same way that wind turbines prevent global warming. Lots of money in it, huge initial investment needed, all sorts of technical problems to be overcome before it can be profitable…
The first bore hole into Puna, Hawaii was so hot it was uncontrollable for days on days, showering residents and forests with heavy metals. Its roar could be heard for miles, the few residents said. Many developed chemical and metal sensitivities (and these can take years to disappear), as much of the area drinks was via roof runoff and cistern. But a lot was learned, the first hole was finally plugged and the second successful. Presently 38MW is produced and sold, with the existing permit allowing 22MW more. I wish the plant would gear up, but I think they are just grateful they tamed the beast.
Boy, where’s the Little Dutch Boy when you need him?
It’s “meter,” not metre and there’s no “u” in endeavor
The report is from the BBC (the British Broadcasting Corporation) so it’s correct for them to have used British spelling, rather than American.
Why does National Aeronautics and Space Administration want to play with volcanoes?
Vald
“Why does National Aeronautics and Space Administration want to play with volcanoes?”
Sit a rocket on top of Yellowstone, have the astronauts piss down a tube into the magma chamber. Presto, instant orbit without all that separation nonsense.
Space is scary?
Where is Griff telling us that it will work because China is building less coal plants?
I forgot to mention coal. So he might have missed this post.
What a snarky article. What is the point?
Yes, my thoughts too.
2nd rate comedian does free shows.
https://youtu.be/__6P2VK-Qao
From the USGS’s https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/yellowstone_sub_page_49.html :
On the history of supervolcanic eruptions and all the milder ones, follow the link to the .pdf at https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1071/ – it’s my usual reference to silliness of this sort.
Yes leave the volcanoes to USGS. They know better. NASA-JPL should focus on near-earth asteroids and comets. That’s the work of my favorite astrophysicist. No she’s not a model. She’s a real asteroid hunter at JPL
http://www.cms.awaitnews.com/Resources/Images/356495780.jpg
A fascinating exploration into one of the really major threats to civilization on earth. How long would it take to restore agriculture sufficient to feed the world? Consequently how much food would we need to store to bridge that supervolcanoe winter? A challenge worthy of Joseph challenge of preparing to feed the world for 7 years.
PS Has Mr. Middleton had the opportunity to even crack open one of the 20 volumes of the complete Oxford English Dictionary? THE “definitive record of the English language”? Let alone perused a few of its 228,132 entries and subentries of current, obsolete and derivative words?
Could he rise to take a brief examination online? Civilised? “Inconceivable”! (Just to twit you).
I only use American dictionaries… 😉
H.W. Fowler’s Modern English Usage says this:
So is it “ise” or “ize”?
All those in favor …er..or..favour of “ize” say, “Aye”.
The “ayes” have it!
The proper spelling is “civilayes”.
You all fail to see the big picture.
1) Yellowstone volcano is big, scary, is going to kill us very soon (eventually), and everyone should be losing sleep thinking about it.
2) Given the gravity of the situation (see above) we need to do something about it. It is best to put all available resources into solving the defined and accepted problem (see above) rather than observing, and waiting to base our actions on understanding.
3) Yellowstone is dangerous because it has too much energy; we need energy; take energy from yellowstone and move it to where it is needed; win win.
4)Solution viability is not to be considered because of the logic spelled out in paragraph 2 (see above).
5) If the anticipated solution doesn’t work then its O.K. because we learned stuff from all the resources that we put into the process & and we will be that much more prepared for the next super volcano that we need to suppress.
1) Not very soon. Even in timescales geologists consider “soon.”
2) Not we don’t. Shutting down the thermal system will deprive millions of people to see that Yellowstone is unique. When were you last there?
3) Yes, it’s dangerous. The Norris Geyser basin made me nervous. The Elk and Bison are dangerous too.
4) See 2).
5) No, its not okay. Tapping into thermal systems in Iceland have greatly reduced the thermal features for miles around.
Isn’t the problem to do with the energy throwing a sizeable amount of the planet into the atmosphere?
An alternative solution would be to remove everything above the magma chamber, (or as much as possible) thereby reducing the force and effect of the eruption. This solution, although a very large amount of work, is technically a whole lot easier and the removed material could be used to raise the levels of areas that are subsiding elsewhere. Pretty good for a lot of employment opportunities as well.
SteveT
Do keep in mind that Yellowstone Natl Park is about three times the area of Rhode Island. The caldera is some 30 miles in diameter. Not the easiest task to accomplish.
Here’s my humble attempt at ROM scaling this effort. First, I want to say this is a breathtaking attempt to secure organizational funding on a scale hardly imagined. It reminds me of the Far Side cartoon were a couple spiders have stretched a web across a playground slide. Assuming all of the engineering difficulties could be solved to allow massive injection, it would have to be MASSIVE. After doing this little scaling exercise the principle of time doing the work is again apparent, like erosion, this would take hundreds of years to accomplish.
Heat capacity of Magma @1200K is 1450J/KgK. Heat capacity of water is 4186 J/KgK (room temp, I know, high temp-pressure water is a complicated subject I know nothing about). The ratio of equal temperature exchange is, therefore, 0.35 Kg water per Kg magma. Oddly, the specific volume of water is about 3 times magma, so for even temperature exchange the volume of water is about the same as magma. Let’s say we need to drop the temperature of the magma 400K to make it “safe”. For a cubic kilometer of magma we need to inject a cubic kilometer of water that is then heated 400K. How many cubic kilometers is the dangerous part of the magma chamber? I’ll use 50 though I think it is larger, much larger. So we need a pretty large amount of water… 50 cubic kilometers or roughly 40 million acre feet. Since the heat capacity of water is a lot higher in most of this exchange temp-pressure regime the volume required is smaller, I’d guess 20 million AF. I’m not even going to guess how long it would take to inject that much water, or how much energy would be required, or the cost.
Even over many decades, the politics of diverting 20 million AF of water would be interesting.
The writer lost me when there was the carping about spelling. Civilisation, metre and endeavour are all standard spellings in the UK and it was the BBC being quoted I rather think.
When you are struggling to be funny you can always revert to
formulaic attacks on the brits.
A bot could do better.
A “bot” did do better.
The spellchecker identified and suggested corrections for all of the misspelled words, except for Nasa. I had to fix that one on my own.
https://youtu.be/oShTJ90fC34
“10 miles is 52,800 feet. The deepest well ever drilled for any reason, the Kola Superdeep Borehole in Russia, only went down 40,230 feet. Prior to this, the deepest well was the 31,441 feet deep Lone Star Producing Co. 1–27 Bertha Rogers well in Washita County, Oklahoma.”
That looks to me that we’re 80% there. Why the neigh saying? I say put petrol in the lorries, toss the drill bit in the boot and go for it.
Those deep wells weren’t drilled next to a magma chamber. The temperatures encountered at 8 km in the Kola borehole would be much shallower at Yellowstone.
You wont be able to drill deeper in a location with anomolusly high geothermal gradient.
In any case, this idea is absurd from nearly all rational viewpoints. Hard to believe Nasa would risk their good name publishing it.
I remember when NASA did aeronautics and space stuff, not volcanoes, weather and diversity. They used to be pretty good.
Federal Budget Year 2018 to begin October 1 2017 insanity boils over!
Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology (not NASA just a Contractor!) and NASA (HQ D.C.) have plagiarized a plethora of USGS Dept. of Interior Studies!
Volcanoes whether mud, regular or super are the domain of the USGS!
NASA needs to re-educate and re-understand that:
after “N”
A = Aeronautical
S = Space
and the last “A” = Administration, should Congress wish it so or decide to abolish it!
As a ‘Cold War’ institution I would advocate the disestablishment of NASA.
However, the Department of Agriculture, the United States’ first department of Science, a Civil War i.e. ‘Confederate’ Institution by establishment, I would advocate the disestablishment of it likewise!
Jolly Good!
Drilling under the magma chamber and extract heat until cold rock? What? Are they planning to cool the core? Where do they think the heat is coming from? This has to be THE MOST ridiculous think I’ve ever read! April first?
Exactly! I think “fxk” has the solution. An internal 1 April memo that has got out and got out of hand.
We tried this in South Australia (you know, the place that uses candles but used to have electricity!) but it wasn’t worth while. See: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-30/geothermal-power-plant-closes-deemed-not-financially-viable/7798962
The second picture in your link looks like Rotorua, in New Zealand. The thing with geothermal is that it can disappear in an instant especially if it is being extracted too rapidly. Local authorities now ban local residents in Rotorua from tapping in to that source to heat water and pools etc. It certainly is an interesting area in NZ.
I know someone else had said it but: English English is NOT American English. Brits, Aussies and Kiwis tend to use S not Z.
Just sayin’….
But I like the rest of the article.
Your degree of “civilization” depends on where you live
http://grammarist.com/spelling/civilise-vs-civilize/
And…It’s “meter,” not metre and there’s no “u” in endeavor
Again depends where you live.
Captain James Cook would probably be peeved to find that he mis-spelt the name of his own ship
Apart from some North American imperialism regarding spelling an interesting article
It was probably the eruption of Toba in Sumatra about 70,000- 75,000 years ago that cleared the neighbourhood of most of our cousins and allowed modern human expansion into Asia.
The effect of Yellowstone going off could be “interesting” to say the least
Captain Cook *misspelled* the name of his ship. And in honor of Captain Cook’s voyages of explouration and discouvery, NASA mispelled the name of the space shuttle Endeavour (sp).