Here’s How to Avoid Climate Panics

From Townhall

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Dennis Avery

Posted: Aug 07, 2017 10:01 AM

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Americans have suffered needless climate-related panic for the past 40 years—not realizing that, since 1850, our newspapers have given us a climate scare about every 25 years. And none of them was valid.

Fortunately, climate science is now good enough to predict the key abrupt climate cycles that Mother Nature visits upon earth through the millennia. After the cold of the Maunder Sunspot Minimum at 1715, for example, earth’s temperature warmed 0.3 degrees in less than 25 years. Then two centuries later, the temperatures dropped equally swiftly into the cold of the Dalton Minimum. These abrupt shifts occurred over decades rather than centuries. Some shifts have been favorable, an equal number were unfavorable – and none involved carbon dioxide.

In 1895, some scientists volunteered that another Ice Age was starting. In 1922, the Washington Post carried a major AP article on Arctic melting! (The paper hasn’t reminded us of that one lately.)

Newsweek predicted an Ice Age again in the 1970s. And since 1988 we’ve had a worldwide media “consensus” that the world will soon be too hot for humans or wildlife to survive. This despite the lack of any significant global warming in the past 20 years! The newswriters, however, are trying to “predict” the climate by extending temperatures from the last five years. In a straight line, though temperatures never move in a straight line.

The ice records and geology tell us Earth is continuing the same erratic climate stability it has shown for millions of years. Earth is ruled by cycles dictated from our massive sun and its biggest planets. Small orbital changes for these heavenly bodies force major, abrupt climate changes on our relatively small planet – whether we’re burning fossil fuelsor not. CERN, the world’s top particle physics laboratory, recently completed an intensive study of earth’s cloud chemistry. CERN noted that the Earth has warmed, persistently but erratically, since 1715 (the coldest part of the Little Ice Age). This 300-year warming is part of the same natural cycle that brought us the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warming.

Earth may warm somewhat further in the century ahead, but CERN doesn’t predict the infamous runaway warming guessed by computerized climate models. In fact, warming surges statistically identical to Al Gore’s 1976–1998 event have happened countless times through the ages, most recently between 1860–1880 and 1915–1940.

Here are the five key cycles that we know will impact our Earth in the foreseeable future:

The 90,000-year Ice Age Cycle. There’s no dispute over this one. It is the biggest cycle, and the biggest danger to humans. The last four Ice Ages averaged 90,000 years each. Interglacials, like ours, last only 10,000–30,000 years, and it has been about 14,000 years since the last glacial maximum began to warm. We can’t predict when the next Ice Age will hit, but we know it will come slowly. The Arctic needs thousands of centuries to build the vast ice sheets. We have lots of time for new research and, hopefully, new technologies that can reduce or buffer the harmful-to-disastrous effects.

The 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycle is also accepted by both sides in the debate. (Though the alarmists claim that CO2 took command of our climate in 1976.) We’re in a warming phase of the D-O right now, with weather about as good as earth has ever had. Most of humanity’s progress comes during such warmings. The warming raises earth’s average temperature only 1–2 degrees, but we also get notably stable and helpful weather.

CERN’s CLOUD experiment importantly revealed that the Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycle is controlled by cosmic ray strikes. When the sun is active (indicated by more sunspots), fewer cosmic rays hit our atmosphere. Thus fewer clouds are created. Without much cloud-shade, the Earth warms. When the sun is weak, as in the Little Ice Ages, lots of cosmic rays hit the earth. Vastly more clouds appear. (The old masters’ paintings from that time typically show heavily overcast skies in the cold.) CERN’s findings strongly suggest that the sun is continuing to dominate earth’s climate. CO2 matters, but its extent is probably only about 1 degree C. That’s significant, but not dangerous.

The “little ice age” that follows this warming will be dominated by cold and chaotic weather, with short, cloudy growing seasons, untimely frosts, centuries-long droughts and horrendous floods. The temperature gap between the Arctic and the equator will widen by up to 10 degrees C, making the storms perhaps three times worse. (Examples: A giant storm in 1588 sank nearly a hundred of the fine ships of the Spanish Armada; on the Scottish Coast in 1694, a hurricane covered a whole county with sand dunes overnight.)

The “little ice ages” kill off more humans than any other natural disaster. Cultures around the world have failed, again and again, as the chaotic cold prevented farmers from harvesting enough grain to feed their cities. During past “little ice ages,” humans also suffered rampant epidemics of diseases such as cholera and bubonic plague.

The cycles always turn. The big question is whether our next abrupt climate shift will bring a desperate Ice Age or a much milder “little ice age.” Fortunately, our high-yield modern farming technology can probably feed most of the world’s population through a few centuries of “little ice age” bad crop weather. Especially since birth rates will continue to fall with declining death rates. The additional CO2 in the atmosphere will also keep on “fertilizing” the plants. We’ll still need new agricultural research to spare land for nature, and more infrastructure in third world countries. The long droughts will require extensive food relief in stricken regions—or even resettlement. But these are now challenges, not disasters.

The 60-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation: All those failed predictions of oncoming climate disasters are mostly due to this single abrupt-but-moderate climate pattern. We didn’t recognize the PDO until 1996 when fishery experts realized that, when the salmon became scarce in the Columbia River, there were huge salmon schools in the Gulf of Alaska. And vice-versa. The Pacific Ocean was moving the salmon food, in phases that last about 30 years each. No wonder we have had a climate scare “about every 25 years”!

Today’s warming hiatus, though apparently “inexplicable” to alarmists, is only another Pacific cooling. This one started about 2002, and the fishery guys expect it to last until about 2032.

The 200-year Solar Sunspot Minimums: Our sun currently has fewer sunspots than at any time in the last 100 years. The Maunder Sunspot Minimum (1645–1710) caused terrible famines during the Little Ice Age, but historians tended to ignore sunspot minimums during global warmings; they didn’t cause major famines. A recent re-examination of the sunspot record found that the solar minimums drop Earth’s thermometer readings sharply for about 60 years – – every 200 years.

The Dalton Minimum, which delivered London’s cold misery in the Charles Dickens’ novels, ended about 1820. Now we’re due again. A broad group of solar experts now predicts a sunspot minimum sometime around 2040.

Between the ongoing Pacific Oscillation and the oncoming Solar Minimum, the Earth will likely go a full century (1998 to 2100) with no global warming. Could James Hansen’s 1988 prediction of soaring future earth temperatures have been more radically wrong? Or Al Gore’s?

Read the full article here.

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28 thoughts on “Here’s How to Avoid Climate Panics

  1. The 90,000-year Ice Age Cycle. There’s no dispute over this one. It is the biggest cycle, and the biggest danger to humans. The last four Ice Ages averaged 90,000 years each. Interglacials, like ours, last only 10,000–30,000 years, and it has been about 14,000 years since the last glacial maximum began to warm. We can’t predict when the next Ice Age will hit, but we know it will come slowly. The Arctic needs thousands of centuries to build the vast ice sheets. We have lots of time for new research and, hopefully, new technologies that can reduce or buffer the harmful-to-disastrous effects.

    Not too sure about that figure statement. 100,000 years, the period of a Glaciation is only 1 (one) thousand century period.

  2. Dr. James Hansen has recanted. The climate has very long response times. By the time anthropogenic CO2 has affected the climate enough to overcome the thermal inertial of the oceans we will be into the next glaciation. ;-)

    • I can’t quite remember the source of the acronym for the link, is this correct?

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  3. ‘After the cold of the Maunder Sunspot Minimum at 1715, for example, earth’s temperature warmed 0.3 degrees in less than 25 years. Then two centuries later, the temperatures dropped equally swiftly into the cold of the Dalton Minimum. ‘

    SAY WHAT!?!

    Rewrite please!

  4. The AI scare story is real if AI is infected with a climate science bias to automatically flood the system with scare stories.

  5. “The 1,500-year Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycle is also accepted by both sides in the debate. “
    As some are noticing, there is a lot of muddle here. Dansgaard-Oeschger events are a well accepted feature of the glacial period, with a tendency to periodicity. A period of 1500 years is not so well accepted. And I’ve seen little to suggest that it is relevant to our present circumstances. There is an explanatory article here:

    “Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles are oscillations of the climate system during the Wisconsinan glacial, where the climate switched between a cold glacial climate and a “warm” glacial climate. The glacial climate, which ended around 11,500 years ago, was colder than the present warm period (the Holocene) and variations were of much greater amplitude than those recorded during the Holocene.
    D-O cycles are not regular sinusoidal cycles, but are characterized by rapid warming events. Such events occurred 24 times during the Wisconsinan glacial (~115–~10kybp) .”

    • Nick Stokes writes ” there is a lot of muddle here.”

      Ha ha ha ha.. Careful, Nick, that sounds almost Curry-esque.

  6. “Fortunately, climate science is now good enough to predict the key abrupt climate cycles that Mother Nature visits upon earth through the millennia…”

    But can they predict the next climate panic? Seems to me the Climate Change crowd should already be screaming about the next Ice Age. After all, the timing seems about right.

    And, of course, it’s all Bush’s/Trump’s fault…

  7. The Arctic needs thousands of centuries to build the vast ice sheets.

    This is poorly worded.
    The main center of the Laurentide Ice Sheet is not in “The Arctic” but about 56° North, and south of the Ungava Peninsula.
    As written, “The Arctic” has been used as an anthropomorphic entity, much like “the Egyptians” took many years to build a pyramid.
    When wordsmithing is poor the reader is distracted and the message gets lost.

    • No they didn’t: the big pyramids took no more than about 14 years to build and we know that because of the discovery of some records describing the amount of stone delivered to the construction site of the Red Pyramid in three of the years it was being built. A simple bit of graph work by the German team who found the texts enabled them to show that the Red Pyramid and the Great Pyramid at Giza were built within 14 years each. Which explains why the Pharoah Sneferu was able to build three large pyramids in his lifetime.
      And please….no slaves, no Hebrews (the pyramids age predates the existence of the Hebrew people by about a thousand years) just a motivated, technically proficient, society using their talent and organisational skills to complete a religiously important state project. No spacemen from Somewhere either.

      • @ Moderately Cross

        the big pyramids took no more than about 14 years to build

        And you actually believe that, …….. HUH?

        “HA”, it would have taken them far longer than 14 years just to cut, shape and install the “white” limestone covering on the Pyramid of Giza iffen it were the Egyptians that constructed it.

      • The point was, and is, that to make the Arctic an anthropomorphic entity is poor wordsmithing and thus distracting, and it suggests the wrong location for the massive ice sheet. I used the term “many” because there was no need to bring that subject into the discussion.

  8. At judith Curry’s blog Javier has written extesively on astronomical cycles and climate. Below are his conclusions on the basic astronomical causes of glaciation:

    “Nature Unbound I: The Glacial Cycle” by Javier Posted on October 24, 2016
    https://judithcurry.com/2016/10/24/nature-unbound-i-the-glacial-cycle/

    1) Obliquity is the main factor driving the glacial-interglacial cycle. Precession, eccentricity and 65°N summer insolation play a secondary role. There is no 100 kyr cycle. Milankovitch Theory is incorrect.

    2) The current pacing of interglacial periods is the consequence of the Earth being in a very cold state that prevents almost half of obliquity cycles from successfully emerging from glacial conditions. The rate for the past million years has been 72.7 kyr/interglacial, or 1.8 obliquity cycles between interglacials. This can be generally described as one interglacial every two obliquity cycles except when close to the 413 kyr eccentricity peaks, when interglacials take place at every obliquity cycle.

    3) Glacial terminations require, in addition to rising obliquity, the existence of very strong feedback factors manifested as very low glacial maximum temperatures. High northern summer insolation at the second half of the rising obliquity period is a positive factor, and if high enough during eccentricity peaks can drive the termination process.

    4) CO2 can only produce a minor effect in glacial terminations since the measured change in concentration (roughly a third of a doubling which represents half of the warming effect of a doubling) is too small to account for any important contribution to the large observed temperature changes.

    5) Since the precession cycle has bottomed and the obliquity cycle is half way down we should expect the next glacial inception to take place within the next two millennia.

    • Looking on the bright side of things, that means the glaciation could start by 2100AD. If all the factors are lined up at the right times. Although I’d agree that two millenia is more likely. Going by the ice core records glaciations mostly seem to occur by a long, erratic, dismal drop in the temperature until it drops rougly 10degC.

  9. Recorded temperature data over the past two centuries documents worldwide cyclical (usually) temperature trends with periods of less than 100 years. https://briangunterblog.wordpress.com/2017/02/17/world-50-temperatures/
    The period of global cooling during the mid-20th century also indicates that the cooling was not a local effect. https://briangunterblog.wordpress.com/2017/07/29/twentieth-century-global-cooling/
    Note that all of my analyses have been using raw data from non-urban stations only.

  10. I believe that this can be seen as happening now especially in the Eastern Pacific, “…CERN’s CLOUD experiment importantly revealed that the Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycle is controlled by cosmic ray strikes. ..” I say that as the total precipitable water content over the Eastern Pacific has been almost double as compared to the typical TPW content as seen in the last 4+ years of using earthnullschool. I expect to see a very heavy rainy winter here in the coastal ranges along most or all of the West Coast from SF up to Southern Canada.

    Starting 4 days ago clouds started forming in the late morning or early afternoon thwarting the Intellicast forecast for temps in the high 90s to low 100s. This has resulted in 20+ degree temp drops down into the 70s F by early afternoon, making for a very pleasant break from the heat of the summer. I also remember similar weather patterns from my younger days in the 1950s through 1970s. There is a change afoot, and it is here now. Greenland is a good example of the process which is underway, imo. As I first mentioned above the clouds started forming 4 days ago. By coincidence the Greenland ice melt season also took a sideways trend 4 days ago. I expect the melt on Greenland to have an early ending As I forecast around 6 weeks ago. Daily high temps oin the center of Greenland have been falling for the last 6 days as seen when looking at my saved screenshots from earthnull.

    • Sounds a lot like what’s happening in the UK.
      First week of August is nominally the very peak of a UK summer.

      So what do we get- 40+ army cadets had to be ‘mountain rescued’ off a hill in Northern Ireland, most with hypothermia.

      The YNOT outdoor music festival (in the Peak District of Derbyshire = one of the least rainy places in the UK) had to be called off half-way through because of rain.
      Festies rarely get called off and usually before they even start, NOT on the 2nd day in, unless something *really* epic happens.

      Shetland (right out there in the bleakest part of the North Atlantic) has had the sunniest 3 months since ‘records began’ in 1929.
      We Are Told.

      After racing to repair the roof of my garden-shed on Monday, in front of a horrendous rain forecast that came true, I took off to the pub for bite to eat ~ 8PM.
      The heating was on in the place.
      At the very height of UK summer, public houses in a normally warm and very dry part of England, had their central heating running.
      and you say CO2 has a heating effect.

      Meanwhile, Met Office whispers “The last 3 months have been the 13th warmest this decade’

  11. I seem to remember they used to burn witches for messing with the weather.

    This sort of thing has been going on a lot longer than forty years.
    Yesterday’s witch-burners…

  12. Samuel C Cogar you don’t have to take my word for the relatively quick time the ancient Egyptians took to build the big pyramids in the Old Kingdom compared to the decades it takes to build anything in the UK these days.
    Read up on the excavation by Rainer Stadelmann and the German Archaeological Institute at the Red Pyramid. This uncovered masses of ancient texts of scribbled down notes recording progress in stone and material delivered to site and the height reached by the construction work at various years of building. The Red Pyramid actually took only a little more than eleven years and is not a lot smaller than the Great Pyramid at Giza. The pharoah Senefru built three large pyramids in a reign of about 24 years; they were obviously very good and practised lots, especially as for 4 months every year the fields were flooded and the population didn’t have a whole lot to do.
    I recommend John Romer’s “The Great Pyramid” for a succinct version of all this. A very readable book with a full chapter on the timetables and construction issues.
    Having been to Egypt on several occasions and spent time looking at most of the pyramids I’m not in any personal doubt about the essential sense and correctness of the German Archaelogical Institute findings. But good luck to you if you have a different theory.

  13. “The last four Ice Ages averaged 90,000 years each.” You mean “glacial periods”, not “ice ages”, right? Or have Louis Agassiz’s discoveries been disproved? I encounter people all the time that have no clue the Earth is in an ice age and has been for two million plus years. We are most lucky to be alive in a warm period, but we are not out of the brutal grip of the ice age. The issue is can human generated CO2 over come the powerful natural forces that have held sway for millions of years on the planet? Do we control the climate switch that can end the ice age? Can we cause all the ice to melt? Is that why Mother Nature raised up our species, ignorant though we are…to put an end to the ice age and return to the more typical Greenhouse Earth condition which supports more life? What good is ice? Isn’t ice enimical to life? Why would any rational person want to stay in an ice age if they had a choice?

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