The Sky is Falling Friday Part 3: Global warming could result in losses for the European wine industry

Public Release: 12-Jul-2017

Slight increases in temperature in Mediterranean regions from global warming could potentially result in labor, productivity and economic losses for the European wine industry, an article in the journal Temperature suggests.

Researchers studied the effects of high temperatures on the labor output and productivity of manual agricultural grape-picking workers in the wine production industry in Cyprus, who often work in conditions of up to 36 degrees Celsius.

They found that higher temperatures in the working conditions during the summer correlated with a significant labor loss of up to 27%, due to the environmental heat causing increased perceived exertion on worker’s metabolic and cardiovascular systems and resulting in reduced output.

When temperatures increased, there was also a 15% decrease in the amount of time workers were able to carry out their duties due to the increased need for irregular and unplanned work breaks.

These research findings demonstrate that workplace heat, specifically in European agricultural workers, is accompanied by significant labor and productivity losses. With the wine industry comprising of 0.2% of world GDP, increased temperatures from global warming may negatively impact the industry and even potentially result in large losses worldwide.

For this study, the authors specifically chose to study grape-picking workers, as the production of wine is still largely dominated by manual labor unlike other industries and therefore the effects of global warming on workers in this industry is highly likely to more prevalent.

The authors warned that this research should not be considered an exhaustive large scale study of the impact of global warming on agriculture workers, and broader studies involving more workers and different locations should be undertaken in order to full assess the full impact.

The study is the first of its kind in Europe assessing the impact of workplace heat on European agriculture workers. The researchers used an innovative approach to assess labor output and productivity of seven workers called time-motion analysis which can analyse every second spent by each worker during every work shift.

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The article represents a study within a research program funded by the European Union and led by an international consortium of scientists (HEAT-SHIELD). The overall goal of this work is to study the complex effects of climate change on the European society.

The study has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the grant agreement No 668786

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Sheri
July 14, 2017 2:59 pm

It’s truly amazing humans have lasted as long as we have, being so incompetent, fragile and helpless that warming and cooling knock us flat in no time. How in the world did humans survive the fluctuations in weather from year to year? We should all be extinct at this point.

July 14, 2017 3:17 pm

My wine cellar is already full!

Non Nomen
Reply to  Judy Bell Nachman
July 14, 2017 11:38 pm

You are going to feel the urgent need to drink much more when it is getting hotter. Don’t worry. But dispose of the empty bottles thoughtfully. Santé!

mike back on the west side of the Range of Light.
July 14, 2017 3:32 pm

Not only the Portugese but also the rest of the world. European wine grapes grow all over the world. Here in central California there is a 100 year old industry filling tons and tons of product; Grape growing is a huge industry it can be found in every US state as well as other parts of North and South America. Australia and New Zealand also make wonderful wines as do most of the eastern European nations and recently China.
Here locally most of the harvesting is done by large equipment In the Lodi area we have something like 103,000 acres (43,000 ha) planted to nearly every variety of vitus vinifera. Harvesting machines are manufactured in France, Australia, and the US. They travel down the row shaking the bejessus out of the vines as they pass over the trellis which allows the machine to collect all the good grapes and leave behind the raisins and the undeveloped green ones plus all the stems. A crew of 5 workers can manage one machine and its two attendant tractors towing large bins in adjacent aisles. Bigger fields may use multiple tractors / bins to keep the juice flowing. This way a handful of workers can harvest huge acerage day or night. Night harvest are especially desired as the grapes are cooler then, and stay cooler during transport to the wine processing centers.
My wife and I personally own 5.5 acres planted to Cabernet Savignon. It makes a very fine wine especially when blended with other varieties, our 2014 crop has been blended with Petit Verdot and Merlot. 2015 and 2016 are still in the barrel. Our 2016 crop yielded 38,500 tons (US) of must and is aging well.
So if Cyprus can’t keep up some part of the world will push it aside.

Wineglut

congrats on getting 38,500 tons from 5.5 acres. That’s 7000 tons per acre. Here in the Napa Valley we average 3.5 tons per acre. I knew the big valley had high yields, but that’s incredible. or perhaps the comma should have been a decimal point.

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  Wineglut
July 14, 2017 5:51 pm

“Ameliorating wine is simply adding water to unfermented must
with the purpose of making the finished wine better.”
Mike’s good at this, it seems.
( or perhaps the comma should have been a decimal point.)

u.k.(us)
July 14, 2017 4:28 pm

Does anybody still grow Mad Dog 20/20 ?

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  u.k.(us)
July 14, 2017 5:52 pm

Yes. vintage – Wednesday.

Lil Fella from OZ
July 14, 2017 4:28 pm

I remember going to muster sheep at 4.00 in the afternoon and it was 113 degrees. Of course that was before AGW. In those days it was hot in Australia.

Patrick Powers
July 14, 2017 4:44 pm

The key to understanding this article is the word ‘potentially’. It is simply one of many so called models and forecasts of doom to come. Little or none of which has yet materialised.

Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
July 14, 2017 8:46 pm

In India few years back, milk producing company reported saying the losses due to global warming is around 2000 crores. In fact that much amount changed hands. Same will be the case with grapes. The seasonal and annual variations along with weather related extremes are far far higher than that of GW [so far about 0.15 oC].
Dr. S. Jeevanda Reddy

ossqss
July 14, 2017 8:57 pm
July 14, 2017 11:29 pm
July 14, 2017 11:57 pm

Cyprus has Mediterranean and semi-arid type subtropical climate. It is about as far south EU goes. To illustrate the conditions:
http://www.visitcyprus.com/media/k2/items/cache/ca9456ad89fef6c66a71b99b32dfe05e_XL.jpg
It lives mainly from tourism and related property developments. Until June 2012 Cyprus was in banking business and has been requesting foreign aid since. Perhaps a bit less nowadays due to a discovery of significant quantities of offshore natural gas. What should they do to save themselves? Expand agriculture?

Enginer
July 15, 2017 5:04 am

I thought the current treat to grapes was the European drought, caused not by global warming, but the Arctic cooling removing moisture from the air masses.

Enginer
July 15, 2017 5:17 am

see “threat”

chris moffatt
July 15, 2017 7:09 am

The Cyprus grape harvest does not occur until September when average high temperature is around 26C ~ 80F. Warm but not bad working conditions for those acclimated as cypriot grape growers are. Work during the summer is tending the grapes not picking them. Thes conditions have existed for a long time yet somehow the wine business is still going. “Potentially” anything at all could happen couldn’t it?

Nancy
July 15, 2017 11:00 am

The only thing likely to kill the wine industry is the migrant invasion. They aren’t too crazy about alcohol, as I recall.

Matt G
July 15, 2017 2:33 pm

Another could, maybe, if article because they don’t do any actual research that finds evidence, just speculation rubbish.
How about doing some actual science like below and look at actual climate bands?
How will 2 c or 3 c warming affect the climate of the planet?
The differences between locations that are warmer by 2 c or 3 c are only around 300 miles apart. That means the climate moving north 300 miles IF this happened would be a problem for wine, how?
Seville one of the hottest cities in Europe where wine tours show the local countryside vineyards.
http://www.cellartours.com/spain/wine-tours/seville
If the hottest region is successful with wine, then why are any other regions with a bit of warming going to have any problems?
This is not a maybe, if or could because the evidence concludes that Seville can cope well, so virtually any other region will also cope well because the 300 mile movement north will make very little difference. Plus virtually all regions would still be cooler than here.

Enginer
Reply to  Matt G
July 15, 2017 2:52 pm

Not if you have 100 yr old vines that have adapted to the cooler temperatures…

Matt G
Reply to  Matt G
July 15, 2017 3:42 pm

If you have 100 year old vines then they already have adapted to warmer temperatures during this time.

Matt G
Reply to  Matt G
July 15, 2017 3:48 pm

Look how vintage wines have improved since the 1970’s around the world during a period of warming.
http://www.vintages.com/circular/vintage-chart.shtml

Frederik Michiels
Reply to  Matt G
July 17, 2017 3:53 am

i don’t see a change to my vine… it’s the cold Boskoop glory and hardened vroege van der laan variant… They in fact produce more since 2013 when temperature in belgium made a ‘step up”.
instead of being able to eat them in time i now share some with the neigbours 🙂
If a happy neighbour is the price to pay for climate change then i am glad 🙂
even the cold resistant vines thrive with better weather, they just had no problem with the late april freeze of this year, unlike the less resistant variants in the south.