This is the way the climate scare ends; not with a bang, but a whimper

Guest essay by Ian Aitken

What does the future hold for the climate change debate? Will there ever come a day when we see the headlines across the globe, ‘It’s Official – There Is No Climate Change Crisis’? Hardly – for unless we find some way to leap ahead in the currently highly immature science of climate change and manage finally to pin down the exact direct and indirect (via feedbacks) warming effect of adding greenhouse gases to our atmosphere and the exact effects of natural changes in our climate the outcomes will remain uncertain. The eminent scientist Stephen Koonin has stated that, ‘Today’s best estimate of the sensitivity [of the atmosphere to the addition of carbon dioxide]… is no different, and no more certain, than it was 30 years ago. And this is despite an heroic research effort costing billions of dollars.’ Basically, unless the ‘Uncertainty Monster’ is slain (and there is absolutely no reason to believe that will happen in the foreseeable future) neither the believers nor the skeptics can ‘prove’ their case. In which case we seem to be in a ‘wait and see’ position. But for how long? Even if the current global warming Slowdown persisted for decades it would still be possible that dramatic and dangerous warming was just about to resume. Indeed in 2015 The UK’s Royal Society expressed the view that it would take 50 years of divergence between the observations and the climate models before they would be convinced that the theory of anthropogenic climate change was flawed. We cannot be absolutely sure that there will be no climate change crisis – only that it is becoming increasingly unlikely. So the politically-correct scientific shibboleths of the ‘climate change crisis’ idea may well persist for a great many decades.

Having persuaded the world to spend trillions of dollars on fighting man-made climate change is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) really going to admit that the causes of climate change are actually far more complex than they originally thought and so they may have been fundamentally mistaken about both the attribution and quantification of warming? And what about the UK’s Royal Society and the American National Academy of Sciences, those most renowned of scientific institutions; are they going to admit that they may have put political correctness and scientific funding concerns before scientific objectivity? What about all those climate scientists who have been so careful to tacitly collude with the IPCC and not rock the climate change crisis boat; are they going to admit that their judgments may have been skewed by considerations of the self-interest of retaining their jobs, careers, incomes and pensions? And the many climate research units around the world; are they going to say, ‘Well we must go where the science takes us – if the science says that there actually isn’t a problem then we’ll just have to shut up shop.’ What about all of the senior politicians in the western world who have foisted an avalanche of regulations, taxes and controls on their electorates to ‘fight climate change’; are they going stand up and admit that their scientific illiteracy led them to be completely fooled? Are all those prestigious environmental organizations, such as the WWF, Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth going to admit they had only ‘signed up’ to the global warming scare because it happened to suit their agendas, attracted donations and increased their influence? Is the BBC, that globally respected bastion of impartiality and objectivity, going to admit to the people of Britain that it abused its position of trust by simply taking on face value the selective and spun science fed to them and taking an irresponsible and unjustifiably partisan editorial approach to the climate change debate? What about all those newspaper journalists who for years have been repeating NASA and IPCC Press Releases as ‘objective facts’, neither subjecting them to critical analysis nor asking any awkward questions? What about all those celebrities who have lined up to pledge their support for fighting climate change by flying less frequently in their private jets to reduce their ‘carbon footprint’? What about all those school teachers who (willingly or unwillingly) taught their pupils about the climate change crisis as though it was an undisputed fact? No, it just isn’t going to happen – far too many reputations and far too much money is at stake.

There is also the strange culture in science explained by the scientific historian Thomas Kuhn as, ‘Once it has achieved the status of a paradigm, a scientific theory is declared invalid only if an alternative candidate is available to take its place’. Note that he is not suggesting that this is right; instead he is saying that history shows it to be case. A credible alternative theory today is the ‘cosmic ray flux theory’; but for every dollar in research funding that goes into that theory and for every mention in the media of that theory there must be ten thousand that go into the IPCC theory. It just cannot compete. And anyway it is too late – the IPCC theory grabbed the high ground decades ago and has never surrendered it. Furthermore skeptical scientists are not suggesting that there is any single, simple theory to supplant the IPCC’s anthropogenic climate change theory, the ‘Climate Change Orthodoxy’. Instead they offer a theory that climate change probably derives predominantly from natural ocean-atmosphere oscillations and/or by natural solar variations (irradiation and cosmic ray flux) and/or by natural cloud cover variations and/or the Milankovitch Effect, i.e. it is probably predominantly just natural. On the one hand you have something that is superficially simple, certain and easy for the public and journalists and politicians to understand (‘our carbon dioxide emissions are definitely the cause of dangerous climate change and reducing them will definitely solve the problem’) and on the other hand something that is complex, nuanced, uncertain and requires a considerable knowledge of science to understand (‘various complex and interlinked phenomena in nature, none of which is well understood, are probably the predominant cause of climate change that in some ways will probably be beneficial but in others may not’). It is a very easy to understand, very alarming problem with a very ‘simple’ solution (‘decarbonize globally’) vs. a very hard to understand, very unthreatening problem with no man-made solution (since we are at the mercy of nature). Which is more likely to get the media headlines, sell newspapers and grab the public imagination? And simply admitting that our knowledge of climate change science is too slight to know ‘what causes climate change’ is never likely to supplant the dominant paradigm of the Climate Change Orthodoxy. Perhaps the Climate Change Orthodoxy theory lives on for little better reason than the failure of a simple, certain, compelling alternative theory to supplant it – and if the skeptical scientists are right then no such theory is ever likely to be found. Add to the huge vested interests of the media the huge vested interests of the scientists, the scientific authorities and the army of people who profit hugely from subsidized renewables and the dominant paradigm appears secure for the indefinite future.

Instead we may find the years rolling by with rising man-made greenhouse gas emissions yet modest, nonthreatening, global warming (and perhaps some temporary global cooling). In the fullness of time the inability of the climate change models to predict climate states generally, and atmospheric temperatures specifically, will become increasingly inescapable, the funding for climate change science research will quietly peter out (at first research into physical climate science, then later research into climate change mitigation, then finally research into climate change adaptation), the climate change researchers will quietly move on to other things (perhaps researching natural climate variability – or global cooling), the journalists and politicians will quietly stop talking about the climate change crisis – and the whole issue will quietly fade from the public consciousness. Basically, the man-made climate change crisis idea will probably simply follow a trajectory, not dissimilar to that of many other ‘man-made global crises’ (such as the DDT or BSE ‘crises’), of

1) Scientists misreading the evidence, confusing correlation, cause and effect – and then, long before the science is sufficiently mature to warrant it, leaping to alarmist conclusions

2) Scientists then exaggerating the risks (and suppressing uncertainties and contradictory evidence) in order to attract government funding to investigate the potential scare properly

3) Journalists hyping the potential scare in order to drum up public alarm (and sell newspapers)

4) The public, unable to understand the science, over-reacting and clamoring for political action

5) Politicians, unable to understand the science, over-reacting and responding to public alarm by rushing in ill-considered policies to mitigate the perceived risks

6) Politicians increasing scientific funding in order to find more evidence in support of the scare in order to confirm the rightness of their policies

7) Scientists duly supplying more evidence in order to attract further government funding (this evidence being used by journalists to drum up even more public alarm)

8) A rising awareness by scientists that the problem is actually much more complex (and the causes much more ambiguous and uncertain) than they originally surmised – and, anyway, far less risky

9) A rising awareness by the public and politicians that the risks have been exaggerated and the scare is not materializing – and the policies have done, and are doing, more harm than good

10) Scientists, journalists and politicians quietly retreating from association with the scare

11) The scare fading from the public consciousness

Today we are at about point (8). The trouble is that at this point the investment in the ‘cause’ has been so vast (both in terms of money and reputation/ego) that calling a halt has become virtually impossible (although Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord would be a good start). After (11), in the 2030s or 2040s perhaps, we may start to see many PhD theses being written by psychology graduates about the great global delusion of the catastrophic climate change scare of the early 21st century and the extraordinary story of how a small group of highly politicized scientists and computer modelers brought science into public disrepute as never before by corrupting the scientific process in order to achieve their hubristic and utopian goals.

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‘Once it has achieved the status of a paradigm, a scientific theory is declared invalid only if an alternative candidate is available to take its place’.

Another way that a theory is declared dead is through obsolescence. In the 11 point program, it is step 12. Given the amount of investment in the faux crises, that is what will happen. The ones at the forefront hope to be dead by then, so they will suffer no monetary damage, and since their work is severely flawed to begin with, they did not expect it to last past their life times in any event. The only thing keeping them afloat is the faked outrage over the attack on THEIR bad science.
But they have nothing to fear from me. I will be dead as well. But laughing at them all the same.

Sheri

Scientists and activists say this is for future generations. I guess if you’re dead, you don’t care that your child now despises you for throwing away billions that could have been put to a better use.

And this investment gets the kids and grand kids to Alpha Centauri ahead of the Chinese, how?

Greg

Indeed in 2015 The UK’s Royal Society expressed the view that it would take 50 years of divergence between the observations and the climate models before they would be convinced that the theory of anthropogenic climate change was flawed.

The once prestigious RS has descended into anti-science. Here they are quite clearly inverting the null hypothesis. They are saying they are going to wait until their hypothesis has failed to make any usable predictions for 50y ( two whole generations) before they will accept the possibility of rejecting it.
That is not how science works. This is pure politics.
One thing missing from this article’s 12 point plan is that this is not just about newspapers trying to sell more copies or scientists following funding availability. It is a “cause”. A politically motivated, pseudo-religious crusade.
There is an endemic left wing bias with most journalists believing it is their job to tell us all what to think and academics who think that being slightly above average intelligence and a specialist in some narrow field of study automatically qualifies them to dictate policy as well.
It’s identity politics. The left are generally sympathetic to enviro issues so they jumped on board the climate scare without any thought or fact checking. It was “obvious” : bias confirmation in action. It is now an article of faith, they will never question AGW because they would see that as being against their whole world view and political identity.
The article lacks insight and perception as much as it lacks punctuation and layout.

AndyG55

“pseudo-religious crusade”
nothing “pseudo” about it. !!

JohnKnight

Greg,
“That is not how science works. This is pure politics.”
Politics is a very rubbery word, it seems to me, and I feel your analysis may be missing the influence (and in a sense the existence) of people with enough wealth and power to buy up the mass media, and seduce/buy up a great many people in governments/organizations of various kinds, and basically stage something like we have witnessed with this “climate change” scare.
As evidence I offer the virtual prohibition on even thinking that may be what happened. That really oughtn’t be there, it seems to me, and if one considers the ease with which something like the Russia/Trump collaboration theory, or the *Big Oil is paying big bucks to thwart the noble cause* theory, are incorporated into the corporate mass media/expertist hype with nary a trace of hesitation or incredulity, I am hard pressed to believe that virtual prohibition is not actually a convenient way of stifling discussion about a non-accidental origin to the CAWG (and other supposed crisis justifications for global governance and the end of national sovereignty/self determination/freedom).

gbaikie

— Susan Corwin
May 28, 2017 at 9:57 am
And this investment gets the kids and grand kids to Alpha Centauri ahead of the Chinese, how?–
Alpha Centauri is probably about +100 years from now, but that assume we accelerate or simply do some exploration of space.
What we should explore next [as far as near term focus] is the lunar polar region. NASA could explored the Moon a decade ago, but said needed money, but NASA spent about twice as much money on climate change related issues [and didn’t get a budget increase corresponding to the monies it spent] Or change change issues didn’t increase NASA budget, but had instead explore the Moon with that money, it could have finished exploring the Moon, already.
I am sure they are other area not getting funding because climate change issue sucked out the money of their budgets.
So had NASA finished exploring the Moon, we **might** be doing something in regard to Alpha Centauri in 100 years or more, but at current trajectory it’s looking more like +1000 years [if ever, there seems little value in going to Alpha Centauri, and the costs would approach the cost we squander on climate change- in future the cost could lower significantly but even in the future if cost somewhere around 100 billion dollar [2017 dollars] there isn’t any known value [yet] of doing this.

Bob boder

Gb,
Susan knows how to get to alpha Centauri, it just takes the right combo of technologies and you win a science victory for your civilization if you get there first.

With apologies to Churchill
Never has so much been spent by so many to benefit so few

TA

We’ll be lucky if we are ahead of the Chinese in getting back to the Moon, much less Alpha Centauri.

Don Holland

Forget Alpha Centuri, Tau Ceti is the system to aim for. 1 G class star, no messy multi-star problems to deal with.

fthoma

Kuhn also mentioned that the ultimate demise of a bad theory is when all the True Believers die.

Joe Crawford

” I will be dead as well. But laughing at them all the same.”
I agree, but personally I think the whole damned thing has already become a pathetic joke. I find it almost impossible to keep from outright laughing in their face when some supposedly educated ‘True Believer’ starts expounding on the subject of CAGW. It has become exceedingly hard to just smile and walk away.

jsuther2013

Ian Aitken, Your article would be much easier to read if you had a lot more paragraphs and breaks between them. Otherwise it is a good summary of the present state of affairs.

+100

ralfellis

Agreed. Unreadable at present.

Butch

..Hey, want some cheese to go along with that whine ?

Menicholas

Unhelpful Butch.
The premise is correct…the article is poorly laid out.

Menicholas

A well written piece will pull the reader along.
This one was interesting, but I found myself having the opposite occur…the lay-out was a hindrance and I lost interest and could not finish reading it on the first go.

Paragraphs were invented for a reason. Paragraphs serve a purpose. They help hold readers’ attention.
Well-written, well thought out article … but, unfortunately, loses the readers’ attention due to lack of ‘breath’ between thoughts.

Louis LeBlanc

It isn’t just us. Editors of marketing material or fund-raising solicitations would recommend no more than 2-3 (not too long) sentences to a paragraph, each paragraph covering a single point.. Big, dense paragraphs are too daunting for probably 98% of the population (and for me, too, in this case).

Hugs

Yes, unless it is legalese, in which case there should be 20 pages written all-caps bold 6pt or smaller font using words I never see elsewhere with accept button as large as possible. What is tort and why should I have some? And why do they keep telling they are not responsible on this and on that, but I am responsible on these and those? Are they cheaters?
In this case I read the blog entry with no problem, it probably depends on browser how easy it is. It was also, in my opinion, a stylistic effect to rant without chapter breaks.

Auto

Hugs,
I once had a Terms and Conditions from a – well-known, British–based – bank, that was just two sides of A4 paper.
Mind, it was in three columns, in legalese, and THREE point type.
Did I use that in lectures and seminars?
“Who has read the T&Cs?”
Ohhhh – yeah! You bet I did!
Auto, remembering Singapore . . .

BallBounces

Climate change’s no big deal, but paragraph obesity is reaching crisis proportions.

Nice

Roger Knights

Here are the sentence-starts that should start new paragraphs in the first paragraph of this article, converting it into five bite-sized paragraphs:
Hardly – for unless we find
Basically, unless the ‘Uncertainty Monster’ is slain
But for how long?
So the politically-correct scientific shibboleths
The remaining three long paragraphs could be split up similarly.

jr2025

Agree, long paragraphs make for difficult reading.
Here’s a recommended FIX: Zoom the article (I used 250%). This limits the amount of (enlarged) text visible on the screen, making it much more readable.
So, Mr. Aitken, thank you for your excellent summary of the problem. Your words ring very true.

I had absolutely no problem reading and following the article. Could be I write the same way. Paragraph obesity. I still have work writing reports on issues with complex and competing elements. I try to keep these down to three pages plus illustrations, as I’m aware readers start floating away after more than this.
I will save the article and the comments – useful for more than one reason.

jsuther2013 @ 7:30
Yes, the maybe paragraphs are a bit long but it’s the content that is important and the article is spot on. Certainly well worth the slightly difficult read on the screen.

Marysduby

Dittos

Shoshin

It’s all about the Benjamins. Without the USA ready to pay hundreds of billions of dollars annually the game is over. Not even the most greedy and corrupt third world despot will bother with it any more. It is ironic though that the German experiment into green energy has been an utter disaster and yet Merkel has the chutzpah to tell Trump to get in line with everyone else.

Shoshin wrote, “It is ironic though that the German experiment into green energy has been an utter disaster…”
Yes. I would even say it’s a catastrophe — the only sort of “catastrophe” associated with “anthropogenic climate change” which is in evidence, so far.

Jeff Hayes

Don’t forget the entire state of South Australia being blacked-out.

R. Shearer

It’ll get better with the importation of several million more 3rd world refugees. You’ll see.

Sheri

MIsery loves company. The more, the better.

Catcracking

Exactly, what I was going to say, especially wants to cover up for her egregious errors and blame others..

texasjimbrock

+100

Toby Nixon

As Merkel herself said, it’s about globalization. If all the G7 are not equally yoked by regulation and the economic playing field is unlevel, the whole regime collapses. And they’re not ready for it to collapse, because a large number of German jobs depend on companies like Siemens continuing to build windmills.

John Harmsworth

While the Chinese burn coal and eat everybody’s lunch!

Didn’t the Germans try for * globalisation* about 80 years ago .Is this another attempt ???

Wally

The expression that best describes Merkel is:
‘Once she lied, she must continue to lie.’

TPG

Of course Merkel tell trump to get is line with her and everyone else, as that would help validate her own position. Not a good reason bug maybe politically effective.

Steve Case

(although Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord would be a good start).
A successful law suit would also be a good start.

Nigel S

Supporting Mark Steyn is the best hope for that.

Leo Smith

Climate science only exists because government funds it.
That is a political decision
Once funding withers, it will vanish apart from a few enthusiasts.

gnomish

yup. it is just that simple.
“and on the other hand something that is complex, nuanced, uncertain and requires a considerable knowledge of science to understand ”
nope- NFMW (not from my wallet) is simple and clear and solidly based on the fundamental right of ownership.
KISS.
but i remember reading a story by Ibsen a long time ago about how a certain well known screwup came to achieve his success as a paid scapegoat.
what people really vote for and pay for is somebody to blame so they can pretend they had nothing to do with it. this is a reality show called Life In the Idiocene.
people are simply thrilled to be an extra in a terrible production. one can name-drop and talk a lot about his bit part without shame for the awful flop it is. beats talking about the weather, right?
this won’t stop until a preponderance of individuals claim self possession and mean it.
july 4, 1776?

Merovign

Allow me to walk my pet Peeve for a moment. I think “idiocene” would be, roughly, the geological era of individualism (or of the self or qualities of the individual).
I cringe every time I hear “idiocracy,” as it’s a *complete* malapropism, as it essentially means “self-government” (though to my knowledge the ancients never used it that way). It ranks up there with asking for extra neutrons on your salad at your Alcoholics Unanimous meeting.
Unfortunately, it is far, far too late to save the language.

gnomish

that was in interesting etymology – i followed your clue.
your point, if aimed correctly, seems to find its target with the original greeks tho-
“In Athenian democracy, idiots were born and citizens were made through education (although citizenship was also largely hereditary)”
so it was a way to distinguish the 1337 from the hoi polloi even then on this basis:
“Declining to take part in public life, such as democratic government of the polis (city state), was considered dishonorable. “Idiots” were seen as having bad judgment in public and political matters.”
since then, the word has served to label those of inferior judgement and has been used, indeed, as a medical term for the most serious category of intellectual disability
somehow, tho, the word idiosyncracy has retained the connotation your peeve prefers.

Roger Knights

If funding from the NSF withers, green NGOs and foundations could make up the difference. And they could pressure state and foreign governments to donate to the Cause too.

Gunga Din

Lots of companies in different fields (pharmaceuticals, car makers, bridge builders etc) fund their own research looking for what will actually work and produce a benefit (profit) for the company.
How much did, say, Solyndra, spend on “climate science”? Elon Musk? Tesla?
Just how and what does the UN or any other political entity gain from funding “climate science”?
PS It’s not their money used. it’s yours.

Mike Smith

Government funding got the ball rolling. Now plenty of other organizations are spending too. Even Big Oil. They can’t afford not to hedge their bets.

jsuther2013

And someone in forty years, can add another chapter to Charles Mackay’s timeless book ‘Extraordinary Delusions, and the Madness of Crowds’, to join all of the other delusions detailed there-in.

London247

+1. Excellent book. It is a curious human trait for the need for an apocalyptic event and the assuredness that this is the generation that is living in the “End of Days”.

Nope. On a dime the pivot will be back to global cooling and the historical data will be “improved” Too much money and power at stake here.

Richard M

The one event that would change everything would be a period of significant cooling. Is this possible over the next decade or two? It would take a repeat of the 1960s-70s cooling enhanced by reduced solar influence.
Yes, it is possible. Within the next decade we could have moved into simultaneous negative phases of the PDO and AMO while also experiencing a weak solar cycle 25. Time will tell.

steven F

If we get a 20 year cooling trend (which some scientist are expecting) then it we’ll be very hard to keep people interested in the Global warming theory. If it cools enough satellite data may eventually show a year as cold as the first few years of satellite data. At that point you might see news articles titled “2030 is the coolest years since 1980”. That would get a lot of attention. Still a lot of people will blame global warming. but if the next few years stay just as cold or get colder global warming theory will die.The APC will have no science to explain it. But those studying the sun will be able to show the sun caused the warming in 80’s and 90’s, and the cooling in later years.

Catcracking

Did you consider that additional data adjustments will be invoked to disguise the new 20 year trend in cooling as history has proven.
Don’t depend on real data with zealots.

Auto

Cat
+ Lots.
Maybe cynical -but that is where the money is.
Disbelieve the 8a5tards. Every time.
Auto.

The cooling will be caused by vulcanism in the same way as in previous grand minimums. The zealots will then blame volcanoes and not the sun. We need many papers and articles explaining how the sun directly and indirectly causes volcanic eruptions. These articles need to be published in the next few months, or maybe year, so that the public accepts the science before a major Iceland volcano (Katla maybe) or a major Indonesian volcano gives us the 21st C equivalent of 1815.

Bob Denby

‘..neither the believers nor the skeptics can ‘prove’ their case…’ — it’s enough for the skeptics to point out that the ‘believers’ can’t prove theirs!

Paul Penrose

Bob,
For those that understand and follow the scientific process, you are correct. However this is not true for the general public.

TheDoctor

Amen!

Gerry, Engliand

Each year they spend shovelling away the snow from their door, keeping the heating on in June to stay warm and turning it on in September, and seeing their grocery bill rise as food becomes scarcer, will cause the general public to wonder about this thing called global warming. Then it will collapse due to public disinterest and then there may be a backlash over the amount of their money that was wasted to try to prove it and to reduce CO2 for no reason.

Brian

Thank you Bob Denby! The burden of proof lies with the those making the claim to convince those of us who are skeptical.
It does not lie with skeptics to prove we have a sound basis for our skepticism.

texasjimbrock

Richard Feynman once said that extraordinary claims require extraordinary proofs. He was right…and I am still waiting for it, IPCC.

TheDoctor

@ Brian

It does not lie with skeptics to prove we have a sound basis for our skepticism.

As much as I understand your sentiment, grow up! You sound like one of these whining snowflakes. In real science there is no such animal called “Burden of Proof”. And an attitude like that is NOT helpful in any reasonable debate. The concept of “Burden of Proof” is too often misused in court to give a perp his 17th chance. If you want to convince people, acting like a 4 yo with a temper tantrum does not improve your credibility.
PS: No personal attack intended!

gnomish

k, TheDoctor – fair point.
howbow this:
there is no debate. nobody has a right to my money, so it ain’t happening.
case closed.
(i just want to see if you know any rational arguments that justify fraud and theft- u know- as if there were a debate on it)

Retired_Engineer_Jim

The scientific method that I was taught goes like this:
(a) one or more people observe a phenomenon;
(b) the observations are organized and analyzed;
(c) an hypothesis is proposed;
(d) persons independent of those performing steps (a) through (c) attempt to replicate the results, or find that they can’t – there is something wrong with the hypothesis;
(e) the hypothesis stands until someone can falsify it – then those proposing the hypothesis modify it, or admit it is wrong; and
(f) if, after a significant period of time, no one has been able to falsify the hypothesis, it becomes a theory. However, should the theory be falsified by an independent investigator, then it must be modified, or everyone agrees that it is wrong.
So, it actually IS up to us, the skeptics, to falsify the CAGW / CC hypothesis (please stop glorifying it by calling it a theory). I should think the the continuing, growing differences between the CMIP5 RCP8.5 graph of temperature anomalies and the measured data (even the diddled data), should be sufficient to falsify the hypothesis.
Now, try to explain that to someone who slept through high school science, or those indoctrinated in the K-12 system of the last 30 years. Don’t even bother trying to explain it to a journalist or a politician.

Gunga Din

Brian,
You’re comment as elicited 3 replies as I write this. None of them, as was your comment, are really “bad”.
“TheDoctor” objected to you using the term “burden of proof”.
I think what you meant by that, to satisfy TheDoctor, was that the “CAGWist” need to supply an hypothesis that can be disproved.
They never have.
They’ve kept changing what observations would disprove their ever changing “hypothesis” until it has become unproveable.
It is now a political belief, a belief willing to burn its opponents at the political-stake.

gbaikie

“So, it actually IS up to us, the skeptics, to falsify the CAGW / CC hypothesis (please stop glorifying it by calling it a theory).”
What is the hypothesis?
Is it that without greenhouse gases earth would be 33 K cooler [average temperature of -18 C]
and that only greenhouse gases can increase the global average from -18 C.
Does this need to be disproven?
Or is this hypotheses stated incorrectly, if so, provide the correct one
What we have is something called a greenhouse effect, but of course it’s not the same effect
as an actual greenhouse [makes all kinds of sense to whackjobs] and tends to include clouds in this greenhouse effect [which isn’t the same as actual greenhouse] when clouds aren’t gases- they are droplets of water and particles of ice.
Part of problem is there is no author of the hypothesis though you have fathers [strangely, no mothers]

Retired_Engineer_Jim

gbaikie –
The proponents of CAGW / CC push the hypothesis that the Earth is warming catastrophically owing to the rise in atmospheric CO2 resulting from the burning of fossil fuels.

gbaikie

“Retired_Engineer_Jim
May 28, 2017 at 11:44 pm
gbaikie –
The proponents of CAGW / CC push the hypothesis that the Earth is warming catastrophically owing to the rise in atmospheric CO2 resulting from the burning of fossil fuels.”
Well, that would be something like, Earth is similar to Venus. Venus was once like Earth.
What happened with Venus is it’s ocean boiled away from runaway effect of ever increasing levels of CO2,
Now if that was the hypothesis, one could provide an argument against it.
I don’t think any serious scientist would support such a hypothesis.
It’s sort of like a hypothesis that Martians once existed.

I Came I Saw I Left

“In which case we seem to be in a ‘wait and see’ position. But for how long? Even if the current global warming Slowdown persisted for decades it would still be possible that dramatic and dangerous warming was just about to resume.”
When you adjust the baseline downward based on an unproven premise to make a new baseline that defines reality as warming, then any actual cooling becomes merely a pause in the rate of warming. That’s basically what’s happening.

I Came I Saw I Left

In other words, cooling is simply a negative rate of warming.

That’s a good approximation.

Wrong video showed up, something doesn’t handle a member of a list.
“https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usFhLh5k5tU&index=11&list=PL00u99IRraJtn38lgAequUjcZR_uFnkdY”

dangerous warming
Is “dangerous warming” like pornography, we can’t define it but we’ll know it when we see it?

AndyE

I think it is more like the little boy shouting wolf – only in this case the wolf actually never arrives. That would certainly end up as a yawn. And in this case the little boy will grow up, become a sensible adult – and the whole childhood fun is all forgotten about.

gnomish

hah- the little boy is still a diaper kid at 50 years old
he’s not gonna be a man ever.

Gary Pearse

I saw, I left: The deal about a long cooling period of decades in the face of rapidly rising CO2, is that natural variability MUST be a bigger factor in temperature changes (the longer the pause, the weaker CO2 turns out to be as a warmer). This is well understood by CAGW proponents and it is why, in desperation, observations had to be “altered”. Indeed, the dreaded “Pause” caused clinical depression among a number of prominent climate scientists a few years ago – it got termed ‘the Climate Blues’ – and they no longer practice.
Imagine 30-40y of a cooling with CO2 rapidly rising to double the 1850 CO2 level. This would unequivocally illustrate that CO2 is only a very minor player.

Latitude

One day we might realize we have been fighting the same communist/marxist/socialist we have always been fighting

stevekeohane

Now that would be real progress!

Bob Denby

This, offered many times before, bears repeating: Christiana Figueres — at the time executive secretary of U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (at a Brussels news conference) admitted that the goal of environmental activism is not to save the world from ecological calamity but to destroy capitalism. She said, ”This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, changing the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution”. — (Investors Daily — 02.10.15—, ) — it ain’t science, it’s politics!

Wally

I believe that day has come. Look around.

richardscourtney

Latitude:
Mistaken identification of the opposition is a sure way to lose a political dispute.
If you check reality you will see the global warming scare
(a) was started by right-wing Margaret Thatcher,
(b) is promoted by governments and politicians of all types, and
(c) communist China thrust the first ‘knife in its pack’ (at Copenhagen in 2009).
The global warming scare is independent of any political ‘ism’.
Governments have a variety of motives for interest in global warming. Each government has its own special interests in global warming but, in all cases, the motives relate to economic policies. And the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) exists to justify those policies (this is clearly stated in the “Principles” which govern the work of the IPCC which are at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf ).
In general, the USA is the world’s largest economy and fears loss of economic power to other nations. Other nations desire gaining economic power from the USA. Universal adoption of ‘carbon taxes’, or other universal proportionate reductions in industrial activity, would alter competitiveness to provide relative benefit to the other nations. Unfortunately, if a few nations adopted the changes they would increase their manufacturing, transportation and energy costs and thus lose economic competitiveness and industrial activity to all other nations.
Developing nations cannot afford technological and economic advances that would benefit them and also reduce their increases to CO2 emissions as they develop, so they are seeking gifted technology transfers and economic aid from developed countries.
None of this has anything to do with “communist/marxist/socialist” whatever you may mean by that.
Richard

Nigel S

Margaret Thatcher on Global Warming;
‘In 2003, towards the end of her last book, Statecraft, in a passage headed “Hot Air and Global Warming”, she issued what amounts to an almost complete recantation of her earlier views. She voiced precisely the fundamental doubts about the warming scare that have since become familiar to us. Pouring scorn on the “doomsters”, she questioned the main scientific assumptions used to drive the scare, from the conviction that the chief force shaping world climate is CO2, rather than natural factors such as solar activity, to exaggerated claims about rising sea levels. She mocked Al Gore and the futility of “costly and economically damaging” schemes to reduce CO2 emissions. She cited the 2.5C rise in temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period as having had almost entirely beneficial effects. She pointed out that the dangers of a world getting colder are far worse than those of a CO2-enriched world growing warmer. She recognised how distortions of the science had been used to mask an anti-capitalist, Left-wing political agenda which posed a serious threat to the progress and prosperity of mankind.
In other words, long before it became fashionable, Lady Thatcher was converted to the view of those who, on both scientific and political grounds, are profoundly sceptical of the climate change ideology. Alas, what she set in train earlier continues to exercise its baleful influence to this day. But the fact that she became one of the first and most prominent of “climate sceptics” has been almost entirely buried from view.’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/7823477/Was-Margaret-Thatcher-the-first-climate-sceptic.html

Gary Pearse

Richard, I have nothing but respect for your intellect, knowledge and integrity that you have shared with us here. But consider what I have argued with friends and family on the left: the party you think you are supporting exists in name only.
Globalization has outsourced the “party’s” constituency. We have the disconnect of voters voting in people who promise a chicken in every pot, and then they turn outwards and policy formulation is toward a Nouveau Monde of elitist governance – the so called Champagne socialists. The trend is toward doing away with meaningful voting altogether. The first step in this process was invented by the EU.
This has smeared party lines as all parties have been vying to get to the exclusive global banquet. Paradoxically, the last chance for the wellbeing of the poor has come to be the Nigel Farages, Donald Trumps and the heads of Eastern European countries. I even think Russia, by going it’s own way, is becoming part of the shrinking pool of common sense in this crazy world. The sanctions are largely a response to This aspect as is the turning of a blind eye on what is really going on in Ukraine.

markl

“…None of this has anything to do with “communist/marxist/socialist” whatever you may mean by that…..” You’re entitled to your view but the UN/IPCC has openly stated that AGW has nothing to do with the environment and everything to do with over throwing Capitalism and replacing it with Socialism. You do not need to interpret anything or read between the lines to reach that conclusion.

richardscourtney

Nigel S, Gary Pearse and markl:
I reply to all of you in one reply and I intend no slight to anyone by doing that.
Margaret Thatcher created the AGW-scare for her personal advancement and dropped it when it was no longer useful to her. But her political Party (i.e. the UK Conservative Party aka the Tories) continued promoting it and still does.
As I said, governments of all types promote the AGW-scare and not only “communist/marxist/socialist” as Latitude said.
And, as I also said, mistaken identification of the opposition is a sure way to lose a political dispute.
Richard

markl

“…As I said, governments of all types promote the AGW-scare and not only “communist/marxist/socialist” as Latitude said….” The progenitor of AGW is Marxist/Socialist and all the rest are either useful idiots or sympathizers…as is the case with the US. Obama stated in his first inauguration speech it was time for “wealth redistribution” and little did the people realize it was from America to the rest of the world, not within America. Out of the 190+ countries signing on to the Paris Agreement only a handful are donors and the VAST majority signed for the money. Without the UN/IPCC “Climate Change” would be a non issue and their goal …. as stated …. is to Socialize the world under their control. Maybe we’re discussing different things…. what is the point of this discussion?

Nigel S

richardscourtney
Who was responsible for the Climate Change Act 2008, the single most expensive and disastrous Act of Parliament in UK’s history? Thatcher Derangement Syndrome is akin to the more recent phenomenon of Trump Derangement Syndrome but that hasn’t reduced the number afflicted with many suffering both.

richardscourtney

Nigel S:
All the major UK political parties (including the Tories) voted for the for the Climate Change Act 2008 so they were all “responsible” for it. Indeed, 463 of the 466 MPs voted to adopt the Climate Change Act 2008 and they are listed here.
Few people are still suffering ‘Thatcher Derangement Syndrome’. Most people now recognise the damage she did and, therefore, even most Tories try to avoid any mention of her.
Richard

richardscourtney

markl:
You ask the question

what is the point of this discussion?

It seems you have missed my post addressed to Latitude that begins

Mistaken identification of the opposition is a sure way to lose a political dispute.
If you check reality you will see the global warming scare
(a) was started by right-wing Margaret Thatcher,
(b) is promoted by governments and politicians of all types, and
(c) communist China thrust the first ‘knife in its back’ (at Copenhagen in 2009).
The global warming scare is independent of any political ‘ism’.

Many people of many different political views are using the global warming scare as a tool to promote their political views and they include both proponents and opponents of socialism.
There are also other important reasons for politicians promoting of the scare in addition to those I stated in my post addressed to Latitude. F
Richard

richardscourtney

markl:
This is the completion of my post addressed to you because my arm ‘did its own thing’ again so my post went before I had finished it. Sorry.
For example, politicians need to raise taxes but people don’t want to pay taxes. So, politicians want a tax that people want to pay and, for example, the UK has one; i.e. the National Lottery. And when politicians cannot find a tax that people want to pay then they seek a tax that people will not object to paying; who could object to paying a tax to save the world for our children and our children’s children?
And these needs of polirticians are also independent of any political ‘ism’.
Richard

markl

“… And these needs of polirticians are also independent of any political ‘ism’…..” Agree. My point is they are being useful idiots whether they know it or not. Played like a violin by a Marxist/Socialist cabal. Because they are using if for their own means doesn’t change the scam. They are unwitting collaborators duped into supporting a lie…. for whatever reason they attribute it…. the end is supporting the downfall of Capitalism. Very well done I might add.

Nigel S

richardscourtney May 29, 2017 at 10:58 pm
Thanks for that perfect example of TDS1.0.

gnomish

“Mistaken identification of the opposition is a sure way to lose a political dispute.”
soooo true! that’s why the bull always loses the bullfight- he chases a red flag. it makes him so very controllable when there’s a chain you can yank that he is unable to resist.
That said, howbow this:
CAGW has become the umbrella for the agenda of predation that is common to all of the predatory class.
There is no right or left to this. It’s individual vs state.
All governments consume without producing, i.e., they are parasitic. None differ in principle; only in degree.
You praise socialism – the parasite brand with the highest degree of success in reducing its prey to poverty and death.
So carry on saluting the socialist flag. It’s considered great TV – especially when the matador gets both ears and your tail. It’s the circus the populace loves. Che Guevarra wears an Obama t-shirt and you wear the barbershop mirror version of infinite regression. You are a subject. In America, they are still citizens. You lost the habit and concept of liberty ages ago.

richardscourtney

markl:
You say to me

“… And these needs of politicians are also independent of any political ‘ism’…..”
Agree. My point is they are being useful idiots whether they know it or not. Played like a violin by a Marxist/Socialist cabal. Because they are using if for their own means doesn’t change the scam. They are unwitting collaborators duped into supporting a lie…. for whatever reason they attribute it…. the end is supporting the downfall of Capitalism. Very well done I might add.

OK. I understand that.
You are saying governments of all kinds are doing what they want to do because they have all been duped by a “Marxist/Socialist cabal” and not because they have joined a bandwagon that suits their various objectives
I need an additional piece of information before I accept that. Where do I get the tin-foil hat?
Richard

markl

richardscourtney commented: “You are saying governments of all kinds are doing what they want to do because they have all been duped by a “Marxist/Socialist cabal” and not because they have joined a bandwagon that suits their various objectives….I need an additional piece of information before I accept that. Where do I get the tin-foil hat?”
Not what I’m saying. I’m saying the cabal is pushing the narrative…. in all forms, anything that will suit the needs of any government ….to further their goal and could care less if those governments know or care about that ideology. Let’s use their own words….””We (UN/IPCC) redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy…..one has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with environmental policy…” Dr Endenhofer, IPCC, 2010
” The U.N.’s goal is to “intentionally transform the economic development model” in place since the Industrial Revolution…..This is probably the most difficult task we have ever given ourselves, which is to intentionally transform the economic development model, for the first time in human history……This is the first time in the history of mankind that we are setting ourselves the task of intentionally, within a defined period of time, to change the economic development model that has been reigning for at least 150 years, since the Industrial Revolution. ……This will not happen overnight and it will not happen at a single conference on climate change…It is a process, because of the depth of the transformation…..”Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 2015
If you think that requires a tin foil hat to interpret properly then you are part of the problem.

After (11), in the 2030s or 2040s perhaps, we may start to see many PhD theses being written by psychology graduates about the great global delusion of the catastrophic climate change scare of the early 21st century and the extraordinary story of how a small group of highly politicized scientists and computer modelers brought science into public disrepute as never before by corrupting the scientific process in order to achieve their hubristic and utopian goals.

I guarantee you that the same people who do research into the delusion of CAGW will also truly believe the delusion of the latest man-made scare. They will look back at how it was wrong, but be unable to see the same parallels into their current beliefs.
I have a friend who says that a cure for cancer will only be found when another disease is found to take its place. His point is simple: if cancer was cured, then all those organizations looking for a cure for cancer would suddenly be useless and millions of dollars would instantly dry up. I personally do not believe him (because there will always be a disease that needs a cure so the people won’t be out of a job), but his reasoning has a point. CAGW theory will only die when another theory that is profitable rises to take its place. There is too much money at stake to just let it die without something else to shift to.

9) A rising awareness by the public and politicians that the risks have been exaggerated and the scare is not materializing …
Whether the AGW “crisis” is real or fantasy and the risks “exaggerated and the scare …not materializing” is less the issue than the adage “never let a good crisis go to waste.”

Rhoda R

And if it isn’t a crisis pretend like it is!

Albert

We’ve been given the CAGW narrative relentlessly through the media for many years. Children are taught to believe this in our public schools. If people start to question this en masse, who knows what they might start to question. What if they figure out that our media is all owned by a handful of corporations? What if they start to question spending $trillions on the “war on terror” and wondering who is actually benefitting from that?
What would happen then? It would be a terribly frightful thing. I suggest we keep any skepticism to ourselves and go along with whatever we are told.

Hugs

Children are taught to believe this in our public schools

This is interesting.
We do accept that maths, languages, physics and maybe even history which is taught at school. We think it is fair and balanced, necessary, factual.
There is, despite this, certain soft issues that are very prone to zeitgeist. When we take a look at the curriculums of the past decades, the further back we go, the more we can recognize elements that we consider wrong or inappropriate.
This is not because we go forward and proceed towards factual facts, but because our values change and the values define what we think is worth teaching. And every time a new issue comes forward, someone is bound to find material on how to teach it. It will fail at some times. The reason for failing could be bad science, or it could be a paradigm. At the time it is very difficult to object.
If you tell people the temperature of Venus is not primarily caused by “carbon dioxide in its atmosphere”, many will react strongly. That factoid is indisputable. You can go and explain that the fact Venus is nearer to the Sun, and has more than 90 times the pressure in is atmosphere, and does not rotate like the Earth, and does not have the Moon, nor has similar tectonic activity or water, could play a major role to the extent that the fraction of CO2 has little to do with the surface temperature, but all you get as a response is surprise, aggression, dismissal and a dénier stamp. You should not question holy factoids.
Our children are taught in schools by quite ordinary people opinions that are ordinary. Climate change discomfort, and scare, are ordinary. Catastrophism or dénial are not.
Believe me, children will question things. They are very good at asking painful questions which teachers wriggle to answer. The teacher usually does not change her position. The pupils always take different sides.

Wally

Indeed.
Then people will start questioning many other untouchable, taboo subjects.
The question to ask about any sacred ‘truth’ is:
Who Benefits?

Joe Prins

Makes one wonder why certain politicians ( and pope ) are decrying “populism”. Is it conceivable that this dreaded populism are normal, deplorable folks asking questions?

PiperPaul

why certain politicians ( and pope ) are decrying “populism”
These are often the type of people who warn of the dangers of not following their dictates, and when their dictates are not followed THEY CAUSE THOSE WARNED-ABOUT THINGS TO HAPPEN.
Curious, eh?

ralfellis

>>he UK’s Royal Society expressed the view that it would
>>take 50 years of divergence between the observations
>>and the climate models before they would be convinced
>>that the theory of anthropogenic climate change was flawed.
They first said 15 years. Then 30. Now 50 years.
This is ‘long grass’ science.
Kick the problem into the latter half of the century, and your pension is secure.
Ralph

Patrick MJD

“ralfellis May 28, 2017 at 8:15 am
Kick the problem into the latter half of the century, and your pension is secure.”
That’s the problem they have discovered because they discovered there is no problem with climate.

Curious George

The climate scare is not about science. It is about MONEY. Your money used to build solar farms in sunny Germany; wave power generators in Australia; solar road in France. This money does not end buried in a solar road; it ends in pockets of people who successfully lobbied for these nonsenses. FOLLOW THE MONEY.

In Northern Ireland there was the Renewable Heat Initiative scandal where people could burn wood chips and make a profit because there was no cap on subsidies, unlike in the rest of the UK.
People were running huge burners in barns located in remote fields, venting the exhaust into the surrounding air without using any of the energy efficiently. It was the most blatant money grab seen.

Curious George

Scandalous, yes. Small fish. For an economy of scale, look at Solyndra.

Nigel S

CG; NI RHI is not small fish at all, $1.5 billion over 20 years cost to UK taxpayers. Solyndra is about a third as big cost to US taxpayers. UK civil servants are world class at messing stuff up.

I believe that this view of the future is grossly incorrect, as it assumes that neither transportation nor power generation technologies will change and therefore carbon emission rates will not change.
Point number one : the recent claim by a nanotechnology firm that they can produce the most expensive part of a lithium battery (the cathode) not only much cheaper but also produce a superior component, claiming a cutting in half of battery prices, to a level in which electric cars become more practical than gas powered jobs, spells massive reductions of carbon emissions from the transportation sector. Point two : Molten salt nuclear reactors are being developed by roughly half a dozen companies , including two nations (China and India), and promise the cheapest power achievable by any power generation technology, including fossil fuels, and produced in total safety.
I predict that a vast reduction in carbon will occur in the not very distant future, on the basis of economics alone, irregardless of how the public views carbon. The issue of carbon emissions, in my view, is a non-issue, for all sides of the debate.

Bruce Cobb

Doubtful it will happen any time soon. In any case, as long as a source of energy isn’t being touted and sold as being “greener”, or “better for the planet”, and is in fact cheaper, without all the subsidies, mandates, etc., then fine and dandy.

Rhoda R

All of which assumes that reducing CO2 is a goal to be desired. Plant food anyone?

Catcracking

Bruce, I agree, it is very doubtful any time soon. Being in the energy business for over 50 years, I cannot count the number of twipers, and heater at full imes I have heard similar claims. Very smart people have been working on the elusive battery without success. Maybe it is not even possible? Even if the magic battery is invented, it will take years and bundles of money to duplicate the existing distribution system that was developed by the free market. Think how convenient it is that you can refuel in a few minutes on the many miles of roads even in extremely rural back woods places. Think it would be easy to deploy tax dollars when we are 20 trillion in debt.
Does anyone believe our strained electrical grid can realistically grow to cover our transportation needs with solar and wind.
Even at home , a 200 amp service is recommended for charging the battery to get enough juice to efficiently charge the car. How many homes have this capability? What do you do if you live in an apartment. These and many other questions remain like taking 3 hours to drive home in a snowstorm with the lights, and heater at full blast.
I know under Obama the government was pushing to put the oil companies out of business with our tax dollars but have no solution for all the needs to implementhe electric car.

Menicholas

Nuclear is a long way from acceptance.
It seems we have gotten farther from any renewed push in that direction, not closer.
Which, given the demonization of CO2 and the general agreement that clean power and more reliable generation is a good thing, is simply hard to believe.

Joe Crawford

Nuclear may be a long way from acceptance in Japan, the U.S. and the E.U. but “You bet your sweet bippy” (to quote Rowan & Martin’s Laugh-In) that if China and/or India, or anyone else for that matter, comes up with a safe, inexpensive, low maintenance and fat-finger proof nuclear reactor it won’t take long for general acceptance. They will soon spread around the world.

Ron Williams

Well, we didn’t run out of whale oil for lack of whales. errr…almost…scratch that one. But we did discover the oil and gas that has completely transformed our technologies and society. I think in the final analysis your point Arthur, is valid and inevitable. I think it will be very expensive oil within 15-20 years that finally makes future solutions on the horizon economically feasible. And what we may discover in 5 years from now that may be a game changer. Electricity is probably here to stay for ever, since I can’t think of anything more practical that that. However, I don’t think we ever completely ever get off carbon based liquid fuels. They may not be FF in the long term future, but you can make ‘renewable’ carbon monoxide out of CO2 by just splitting one oxygen molecule off, which is then primary fuel stock for traditional refineries making synthetic fuels and oils, or can be burned directly in applications that require that.
And that takes us to about 2030 when these ‘carbon’ emissions are supposed to be so much lower than now anyway. Perhaps the carbon taxes will harm the economy so badly, that we won’t engage any of the new technologies just because we will have broke ourselves to the evils of so much taxation. Left alone, we will wind up at the same place sooner or later anyway. That’s why I don’t think penalizing CO2 with taxes that harms our economies right now makes any sense. That would be similar (but opposite) like in Roman days of slavery, that well, how about we only feed the slaves one meal a day, and limit their intake of water…just to save a little on input costs.

Gunga Din

Well, we didn’t run out of whale oil for lack of whales. errr…almost…scratch that one.

Oil is what saved the whales.
(I wonder how many Greenpeacers realize that?)

R. Shearer

It takes energy to split off an oxygen atom from CO2.

Ron Williams

Yes indeed it would take energy, but we would have a totally useful different end product. Say we had surplus renewables at night for example, we could use that energy to split CO2 from CCS and have a Carbon Monoxide commercial product, along I suppose with some spare oxygen that could be commercialized? I understand the process is fairly simple, the same as splitting water H2O into Hydrogen and Oxygen. The hydrogen fuel cell hasn’t really taken off because it is 55%-60% round trip efficiency hit in creating the hydrogen and then converting it back to water after useful energy is extracted. (by electrolyses) But if we were ‘trading’ surplus electricity for a Carbon Monoxide product, that could be used commercially in existing FF infrastructure, then is there any merit to this idea? The carbon chain can then be modified into a host of products, just as we currently do with FF. I know they are working on this, since I bought some penny stocks in this about 15 years ago, and they went broke, (my first clue) but maybe the technology and demand is now getting closer to commercialization. Anybody have any updates on this idea?

John Harmsworth

@Arthur-
Your extreme ignorance is showing. How much energy do your new batteries produce? Zero! They only store it. How much will that produced power cost? Lots! Without fossil fuels at least twice as much. Who will pay for the roads when fuel tax revenues are gone? Electric car drivers! Batteries are a carrot and a stick, and you’re the sucker chasing the carrot you’ll never get!

Gary Pearse

Logically, we will run out of fossil fuels, or at least abundance will decline and essential users like Petrochemicals will make fuel use like gold for railway tracks. Electric cars only look foolish in the short run. We WILL be tasked to make them work, and we WILL succeed in spades! Am I revealing my ‘cultural bias’ as an engineer? You can count on it.

Well I’m doing my best to bring about point 9): A rising awareness by the public and politicians that the risks have been exaggerated and the scare is not materializing – and the policies have done, and are doing, more harm than good.

And we’re grateful to you, Phillip!
My hopes, believe it or not, are pinned on the climate research units (don’t laugh) because sooner or later there will be a realisation that we need to follow where the science leads us. When that happens we will not be so arrogant as to assume we can change the climate but there will be genuine research into how better to predict it and therefore to deal with it.
There should never be a need for a genuine scientist to pack up and go home whatever his/her field of study. The rather unpleasant hangers-on are a different matter.

Joe Crawford

That might occur if they were populated by actual scientists rather than the current crop of pseudo-scientists trying to save the world.

The goal is to de-industrialize the West as part of “never again”. The method is irrelevant.

John Harmsworth

Bingo! This is a war against the power and wealth of the West! Much of the world is jealous or only sees the negatives of Western thought and structure. Improvements in quality of life and health and personal security apparently mean little. The Socialists won’t be happy until everyone is poor, the environmentalists until humans are erased from the planet and the poor of the world are happy to see us commit economic hari-kari so they can have it all. Our own over-educated elites are so comfortably self possessed that they can’t imagine that they might suffer in this unfolding disaster.

Ron Williams

Why is it in this climate debate, the only thing talked about is CO2? In the MSM, the politicians (because they can tax CO2) and even here, most people only mention CO2 as the perceived villain or non villain. IMO, land use change and the heat sink effect are a much more pertinent factor, and one that isn’t mentioned a lot. The IPPC mentions it in their Summary titles, but then casts the whole net around CO2 as the culprit. Land use change and heat sink effect are huge instantaneous additions of heat and instability to the planetary weather especially on the continents where the convective heating must be re-radiated back to space or to the poles where the most pronounced warming is happening.
CO2 has theoretically caused a very minor amount of warming. It must be universally attributed to the entire planet fairly equally if the CO2 mixing in the atmosphere is homogenous after a few years. So a little bit of stable background warming everywhere has been a good thing for the planet, as compared to life in the LIA just 250-300 years ago. CO2 is probably the least of our problems. We have only had a total of .85 C warming since 1880, and half of that was from natural variation. And this is according to the alarmist scientists themselves. So if human kinds share of that is only +.42 C in 137 years, I don’t think we are in any danger zone based upon that kind of mild warming. A bit of warming is better than a bit of cooling, although it sure would be good to take the heat down a little so as the point of article can be made, that the C part of the AWG is way over hyped. We have to get a grip on this climate hysteria.
But I wonder what has more heat accumulation properties: CO2 radiative forcing or land use change on a planetary scale. We almost never talk about land use change here, or heat sink effect, or rarely do I hear it discussed anywhere else. I support the theory that CO2 is a fairly even background heat everywhere and fairly small in absolute terms of temp increases. But land use change with massive amounts of convective heating from equatorial & mid latitudes to polar warming of twice the rate everywhere else is what causes wacky weather and a loopy meandering jet stream, which can cause different weather events to unfold. This is where we can say with certainty that there is a small discernible human caused climate change. IMO, it is land use change that is really the elephant in the room when it comes to understanding the totality of climate change for which is what humans are concerned with, and the bit of global warming that we have managed to eke out by CO2 is only half the picture, or less. Maybe it is our collective human footprint and not our carbon footprint we should be looking at?

Bruce Cobb

Why worry about it at all? Besides, land use is strictly a local issue. Government, as in the EPA, has no business telling people, sorry, you can’t build that (mall, or whatever) because “climate change”.

Ron Williams

Bruce, I am not saying we need to worry about it, or proposing we limit human activity. We really need to understand that there are other causes to the effects that are being blamed on CO2, because that is what is sucking all the oxygen out of the room, which is the heart of the Paris Accord and all the limitations and taxes that will be imposed upon civilization because of demonization of CO2. Land use change is a global phenomena (mostly in northern hemisphere) when added up in aggregate, so I think it is much more prevalent than just being a strictly local issue.

Ron —
• CO2 is a significant residual in the burning of fossil fuels.
• Fossil fuels have been the driver of industrial development since the late 18th century.
• The modern environmentalist hates industrial development, just as he hates modern civilisation.
• CO2 (theoretically and in controlled laboratory conditions) can cause air to warm.
See where I’m going with this?

Ron Williams

No, I am not sure…but I think you are maybe going to say that CO2 is the cause of most of our man made warming? I thought the CO2 re-radiated the LWIR back to water or land warming that, not cause air to warm?
Maybe enlighten me on how you were going to finish the “See where I am going with this?”

Gunga Din

Burning old stuff (really old stuff) produces CO2.
Burning old stuff has, somehow, violated Ma’ Gaia. (Maybe “Her” recycling methods are a bit slow?)
The modern form of Gnosticism hates Man and everything he does. (Maybe “She” would have preferred an abortion?)
Under controlled, laboratory conditions a hundred years ago, CO2 could make the air retain more of the heat fed into it, focused only of adding more CO2. That’s all it was meant to show. (Earth would be a snowball half of the day if ALL of our atmosphere and the oceans didn’t retain heat. Any plants etc removing CO2 included?)
What they rely on is computer generated excuses to change past observations to support computer generated future “observations” that the actual “now” show they didn’t get it right.
PS I know that TWC hasn’t included the record highs and lows in their “Local on the 8’s”.
How many of your local stations still include the day’s record highs and lows?

Cellice

I agree that our collective human footprint, not the carbon footprint is what we should be looking at. Whilst all the focus is in CO2, other environmentally damaging practices are being overshadowed and not properly managed. Land management practices, pollution of air and water, and waste management which are much more in our control are left with far fewer research and management dollars.
Years ago I thought that I read that there was a variety of air pollutant gases that were likely to be impacting the temperature in the upper atmosphere, but they are more difficult for the masses to comprehend, more difficult to measure, and are not ubiquitously used by every human and natural activity. So not so useful for a collective guilt trip, and not useful for taxing.
I think that a lot of environmental practictioners jumped on the CAGW bandwagon thinking that it was a way to solve all environmental ills, irrespective of whether they thought the hypothesis would stand up to scrutiny. Alternatively, they actually believe that humans are the sole cause of any climate change, and therefore they really believe that changing fossil fuel use will reverse any changes (eg. Coral bleaching). It is far more disturbing to them that they are NOT in control and that natural processes could be causing changes – because how then can they change it back to how it was before? It is far more alarming to a control freak that the earth might change all by itself!!
I am concerned that when the man made climate change theory is abandoned as a hoax, all the other more sensible environmental management issues are thrown out in the same bath water and we will be left in a more resource wasting, and polluting world than ever before – and then we will really have to worry, and no one will be listening anymore, just like the boy who called wolf.

markl

“..I am concerned that when the man made climate change theory is abandoned as a hoax, all the other more sensible environmental management issues are thrown out in the same bath water….”
If you mean all the sensible methods to clean our air, water, and soil you shouldn’t be concerned because they are universally accepted and proven.

The mankind blaming statistical weather story ranks only 32 in the political G7 communiqué. The first concern:

1. We, the Leaders of the G7, met in Taormina on May 26-27, 2017 to address, in a spirit of cooperation, the global challenges we face today and to respond collectively to the greatest concerns of our citizens. Our common endeavor is to build the foundations of renewed trust, both towards our governments and among our countries.

Source: http://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2017/05/27-g7-leaders-communique/
Sounds like steps 9 and 10 are already there.

Duncan

Not the way I see it. See step #2, “Sustainable development”. Reading the below link sounds like a ‘fantastical’ world. This will take lots of money to accomplish, the transfer of wealth, hence the Paris agreement. As CO2 output is aligned with the wealthy countries (except India and China), this is the vehicle to make them pay.
https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/post2015/transformingourworld

Courage. “Sustainable development” comes after “shared values of freedom and democracy, peace, security, the rule of law, and respect for human rights”. These still mean something in Europe at least.

Dam1953

Most pseudo-crises disappear when a real crisis appears. I expect that this issue will be no different.

Bernie

The Green Menace has beaten this by making sure all crises have their root in climate change.

david hughes

It’s all about the “watermelons” (green on the outside and red on the inside) and the money.

…and a brown core…

We have many people who claim that a trace grass called CO2 is going to lead to catastrophic warming that could destroy our civilization. In fact, there is only a small part of the CO2 emissions that are because of man; so, it is a part of a trace of a grass that will destroy us. This is the story we have been fed ever since the “scientists” gave up on the “new ice age” as a way to get ever more funding.
We also have the luke-warmers who agree with the alarmist “scientists” except for one thing. The luke-warmers believe they have “cooked the books” and are sounding the alarm over what will be a small and beneficial warming caused by CO2.
We also have those who believe that CO2, on net, cools rather than warms and CO2 will have nothing to do with any coming change in climate. I note that during the space race that the US aerospace and meteorological community came together to develop the US Standard Atmosphere physical model of Earth’s atmospheric pressure, density, and temperature profile by altitude from the surface all the way up to the edge of space at ~100,000+ meters altitude.
“And never once used any “radiative forcing” from any IR-active greenhouse gases or any radiative calculations from any greenhouse gases whatsoever to produce an accurate 1-D model that could calculate Earth’s entire pressure, mass density, temperature, and molecular-scale temperature as a function of geopotential altitude (geopotential height ~ geopotential altitude ~ gravitational potential energy (PE)) profile from the surface to the edge of space.” (credit hockeyschtick blog)
I just toss out the official US Standard Atmosphere since it was said you had to have something handy to replace the prevailing madness. The last version of the US Standard Atmosphere was finished in ’76 I believe.
We can never win against people with tons of government money and whose predictions are for a century or more down the road unless we show that they are wrong. And they are wrong. Many things contribute to the long range change in temperature of this planet and I personally think it is time to have real discussion about how all the factors work together to cause change.
We are a one-trick-pony on climate at the present. That trick is CO2.

Since my 2010 Venus/Earth temperature comparison–which used the Standard Atmosphere for Earth’s tropospheric profile–I have spoken out continually for the physics behind the Standard Atmosphere. The voices on both sides of the climate war have ignored me (as they keep coming up with various ways to claim “it’s just a coincidence!” that the temperature vs. pressure curves of Venus and Earth are essentially the same, over the FULL RANGE of Earth tropospheric pressures, when the actual Venus temperatures are corrected only for Venus’s closer distance to the Sun). And as I have also pointed out, the Standard Atmosphere goes back more than a century (and in America, officially back to 1920); there has been no change in the model’s 288K surface temperature in all that time, and that temperature, while used by all and sundry in the debates, is HIGHER than the official present global mean, despite a supposed century of warming (and the Venus data I found on the internet and used was taken in 1991, thus clearly showing no global warming over the last century, from 1920 to 1991–so even the temperature records purporting to show such warming are false).
My simple contributions–more than just the Venus/Earth comparison–to the correction of climate science should have become front-page news worldwide, years ago.

AndyG55

Since shown to have the same relationship on all known planets with atmosphere.
Some of us listen and understand, Harry 🙂

Thanks for all you have done Harry. And good comment.

Mayor of Venus

It is widely accepted that without the opacity of the greenhouse gases, the atmospheres of Earth and Venus would be close to isothermal, and thus the surface temperature nearly equal to the effective temperature of the planet. Are you actually suggesting that surface temperature is independent of the gaseous composition of the atmosphere? Do you expect Earth’s standard atmosphere would be the same even if it was 100% (instead of just 1%) optically inert gas such as Argon?

Bill Illis

What would be the temperature on Earth if the planet stopped rotating? Let’s say you were stuck on the
sunny side with the sun overhead 24/7 for a year.
The answer is it would get to 450C.

Tom Halla

I am old and cynical enough to believe that the CAGW foofraw will go down the same path as Richard Nixon’s War of Cancer. In the 1970’s, there was both a cancer epidemic scare and a proposed “solution”, which drew hysterical press coverage and government funding in the US. It petered out with a change in government and an eventual realization there was no epidemic.
We in the US still have lasting effects, like California’s Proposition 65 warnings “this contains/produces substances known by the State of California to cause cancer”, and excuses that at least it got medical funding for research on cancer.
Otherwise, it is like the old Saturday Night Live Emily Litella skits “Never mind”.

commieBob

I have a radical idea. Let’s discredit science!
There is a growing public crescendo pointing out that science has become corrupt and ineffective and is causing immense harm. It’s time we started demanding more credible science. Probably the most effective thing we can do is insist on replication.
Most scientific research papers can’t be replicated even by the original authors. link Nobody should consider a paper worthy of being published in the prestigious journals without replication. Never mind peer review, it’s been shown not to work.
Insisting on replication would clear up 97% of the mess. OK, we know where I got that number.
Wrong, why we trust experts in spite of the fact that they most often wrong.
Rigor Mortis, Richard Harris shows that most medical research results are wrong, he shows the corrupt process that leads to that.
Expert predictions are garbage. People should learn to treat them as such.

“Richard Harris shows that most medical research results are wrong, he shows the corrupt process that leads to that.”
The government’s involvement and funding of science may well be what is causing the corrupt process.

commieBob

The root problem is how to tell if research is good. Tenure committees and funders pass the problem on to the journals. The idea is that, if the research gets published in a high impact journal, it must be good.
My favorite example of passing the buck is the Bogdanov Affair. The Bogdanov brothers were accused of spoofing their PhD theses in string theory.

Igor initially failed and was required to publish three papers in peer-reviewed journals before being given a degree.

To paraphrase: “We don’t understand this string theory crap but if you can persuade a journal (or journals) that it isn’t bogus, we’ll accept that.”
We need basic research and somebody has to pay for it so I’m not against government funding per se. The question is about who to fund. A lottery might work as well as the present system. It would, at least, remove a bunch of perverse incentives that lead to really crappy research.

Joe Crawford

C.B., I agree. But I would add that before a study could be published, someone (normally the funding agency) should be required to fund one or more complete and independent audits of both the data and methods of the original study. After that both the original study and the results of the audit(s) would be published together, replacing the current pier/buddy review process with a paid and signed verification process.
Before any data, results or conclusions could be referred to as anything other than being unverified or conjecture, at least one additional independent study, using different data and methods, must be performed. Any published reference to the original study’s data, results and/or conclusions must be tagged/footnoted as unverified or conjecture until it has been replicated. This should probably lead to two levels of publication, one printing the unverified studies and another printing only replicated studies, both the original and the replication(s).
Following the above would have several advantages over the current system of publication. First, any study not worthy of replication would remain as nothing other than an interesting bit of data or conjecture. Academics could then be graded on the actual amount of verified and replicated research they performed and/or their ability to audit and/or improve upon other’s research, not on how good they are at writing proposals or technical B.S. This would would also limit use of unverified/purchased pseudoscience by politicians, businesses and N.G.O.s. And, it might eventually improve the reputation of science in the minds of the general public, that reputation having been almost destroyed by the current system (e.g., Climate Science, Nutritional Science, Medical Research and Education).

Scott Scarborough

I have never seen any research that shows why the environment heating up a few degrees, equivalent of me moving from Virginia to Florida, would be any problem. After all, when people get old and feeble they move to Florida anyway. And the change takes place in the day it takes to drive down there, much faster than the 100 years it took for the world to warm a measly 1 degree. If farmers have to make changes due to climate change that will be just one more change they will make on top of the hundreds of changes they had to make to usher in the Green Revolution. That seems to be the gigantic hole in the alarmist’s position. Weather is suppose to get more extreme just because they say so. All studies previous to this latest scare claim it is global cooling which yields the most extreme weather.

Menicholas

The idea that warming is bad, let alone unquestionably catastrophic, is probably the most incredible part of this whole ridiculous meme.

+1. And warming by how much? And where? And when? Not much. Mid-latitudes. Night. Crises? I think not. And not much of any warming at all for the last 20 years. Amazing this “crisis”.

John Harmsworth

The problem is, it isn’t heating up. It seems to be indistinguishable from the 1970’s. 40 years of so called warming adds up to nothing!

Zealdave

Ian I believe there is a couple of thing you seem to have forgotten to factor in.
That is the damage caused by the fixes and prevention’s Lets look at alliterative energy as one example. As more wind turbine farms fail and solar fails to achieve as promised, people will start asking question. They will then look at other sources and re-accessing some of the old. As part of that reassessment they will have to look at how they negatively impacts the environment.This will open up some eyes and as other discover the real cost of the fixes and investigate then more eyes will open.
Second as the real environmental disasters become more pressing and as they figure out that climate change is not a fix. Activists and alarmists will become diluted as they move back to their pet cause. The result will mean more funds for other science. Scientist”s will then have a chance to jump ship before the ship sinks and give them a way out (that’s why I got out because I had doubts). It will also weaken the alarmist voice.

markl

The entire AGW scam is being supported by useful idiots that are either bought or believe they will save the earth. All of them either directly or indirectly work at the behest of the UN. Without the UN/IPCC there would be no AGW. The stated goal of the UN is to bring about world wide economic change through destruction of Capitalism and replace it with Socialism. The UN is a HUGE organization with unlimited funds and no one to hold it accountable. They’ve managed to control the narrative so far so why would they stop? The enemy is the UN, not science.

rwoollaston

What is being described – the inability of the AGW theory to be conclusively disproved – shows exactly why it is a pseudo-scientific theory. Scientific theories make clear predictions which, if proved incorrect, cause the theory to be modified or discarded.
Let’s remember that the IPCC is a UN agency constituted to support the case that global action is required to counter AGW. The drive behind the formation of the IPCC was a belief by a number of individuals and interests that global governance was necessary to avoid global conflict at least partly by redistributing wealth. This is exactly what Paris sets out to do – transfer wealth from the developed to the developing world. It has nothing much at all to do with reducing CO2 emissions – shut one factory down in the west and another more carbon intensive factory in the developing world takes its place. This is why there is absolutely no interest in the logical solution to countering CO2 emissions – namely by taxing goods and services according to the CO2 emitted in their production.
Fighting the AGW fight won’t solve the problem alone. We need to decide whether the global governance agenda (the EU writ large?) is valid. My opinion is that it is unaccountable, undemocratic and essentially opposed to the principle of liberty, and therefore to be opposed.
On the other hand, a series of international treaties designed to extend the benefits of the economic progress made by the developed world to the developing world in exchange for commitments to implement policies protecting individual rights and liberties and would be of value – as long as the developing world is accurately defined with a ranking of countries according to their progress, How China can be counted as ‘developing’ for the duration of the Paris agreement is beyond me.

DWR54

A credible alternative theory today is the ‘cosmic ray flux theory’…”

By my understanding, ‘Cosmic ray flux theory’ states that during periods of low solar activity more cosmic rays are able to reach the Earth’s atmosphere and help seed cloud formation; thus creating a positive feedback (increased albedo) from the original forcing (reduced solar activity). Together these push global temperatures in a cooling direction.
Conversely, during periods of increased solar activity cosmic rays are effectively ‘batted’ away from the earth, reducing cloud cover and acting as a positive feedback on the warming caused by increased solar activity; so global surface temperatures warm up.
The current solar cycle, number 24, officially began in January 2008. It has been the least active solar cycle in living memory. So here we have a perfect opportunity to test the efficacy of cosmic ray flux theory. What have global temperatures done since Jan 2008; since the onset of the weakest solar cycle any of us have ever seen? Have they cooled, as expected by CRF theory?
The answer is that global temperatures have rocketed! The warming trend in the UAH v6 TLT satellite data set since Jan 2008 is currently 0.43 C/dec ‘warming’ (as of April 2017). That’s about as high as it has been for any similar length period throughout the entire UAH record; including periods with much higher solar activity. It’s a similar story with the other satellite data set, RSS, and all the surface temperature data sets too.
Perhaps the reason ‘cosmic ray flux theory’ doesn’t receive the scientific interest awarded to AGW theory is that it has been demonstrated, through observations made by multiple agencies, to be wrong?

Ron Williams

DWR54…I think you included most of the recent super El Nino of 2015/16 in your ‘rocketing’ temperatures increase of .43 C/Decade. The alarmist scientists only claim .85 C warming since 1880, of which they attribute half to natural variability. And even a complete doubling of atmospheric CO2 will only lead to an increase of 1.2 C and that won’t happen until about 2050. The argument and debate really is what are the feedbacks, and what is reasonable to expect?

DWR54

I’m not arguing that the trend since 2008 is indicative of future warming; just that it demonstrates the weakness of ‘cosmic ray flux’ theory. Even before the El Nino there was warming since 2008: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:2008/to:2014.5/mean:12/plot/uah6/from:2008/to:2014.5/trend

How do you eliminate La Nino and the PDO from any global measurement? A bit tricky!
We do not know, simultaneously, the value of the cyclic components of our global temperature,
Making it very difficult to isolate any cyclic component.
Then you have CO2/H2O/CH4/Land use/greening/UHI.
Not so easy to tease out valid effects, if that is possible at all.
The above is what we are aware of, then there are the unknowns…….

Richard M

DWR54, I’m not a big fan of cosmic ray theory either. However, when you feel the need to pick huge cherries to refute it, all you accomplish is giving the theory more credibility. If that’s all you have, you have nothing. Starting with a strong La Nina and ending with the super El Nino is beyond ridiculous.
About the only thing your comment accomplished is proving you are completely clueless.

DWR54

Richard M
I remind you that the reason I started in 2008 is because that is when solar cycle 24 began. I said January, but having checked again it was December 2008. Here is the updated UAH chart: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:2008.9/to:2014.5/mean:12/plot/uah6/from:2008/to:2014.5/trend
I’m glad we now agree that it is ‘clueless’ to start a trend at a peak or trough in the ENSO cycle.

Richard M

DWR54, you can use any excuse you want for cherry picking but it is still cherry picking. Citing a trend when you pick huge cherries then makes you look even worse.
What you need to do is make sure your starting ending dates are not significantly influencing the trend. If you have both El Nino and La Nina event at the start of a trend, and your trend is long enough, then it won’t be a problem (as is the case for using 1997 or 1998). Same for the end of a trend. The key thing is to actually use your brain and understand how your choices of dates affect the trend.
I know that is asking a lot as your last sentence made all too clear.

steven F

“Perhaps the reason ‘cosmic ray flux theory’ doesn’t receive the scientific interest awarded to AGW theory is that it has been demonstrated, through observations made by multiple agencies, to be wrong?”
Possibly The theory is still not fully developed since we have very little data to show how cosmic rays affect cloud formation. That said there are other theories on why low sun spot numbers coincide with low temperatures.
One theory is based on the fact that the sun wobbles as it travels through spaced due to the orbits of the planets. This periodically moves the sun a little bit closer to the earth or further away. This distance change can be calculated. And as a result the amount of energy delivered to earth can be calculated. The variation is larger than the IPCC claims.
Another researcher has been trying to understand the semi periodic behavior of unusually wet years. He eventually did find a link between sun spot activity and unusually wet years. A mathematical model of his theory was created in 2007 and it predicted 2016 would be a wet year. The prediction appears to have been accurate. Many areas of the world have experienced flooding during the winter of 2016 -2017. California experienced its wettest year on record this year.
https://anhonestclimatedebate.files.wordpress.com/2009/02/2982-journal-of-civ-eng-vol-49-no-2.pdf

Ron Williams

Steven,
“One theory is based on the fact that the sun wobbles as it travels through spaced due to the orbits of the planets. This periodically moves the sun a little bit closer to the earth or further away. This distance change can be calculated. And as a result the amount of energy delivered to earth can be calculated. The variation is larger than the IPCC claims.”
The entire solar system moves about the Sun’s center of mass taking all the planets with it equally. The planets are locked gravitationally in their orbits about the Sun and they just keep their regular orbital distance for that process. So the Sun does not move further and closer away as you suggest. The Sun’s wobble is caused mainly by Jupiter and Saturn, but even the inner minor planets provide a very tiny amount of tugging. For every action…there is an equal and opposite reaction. In this scenario, the distance from the Earth to Sun does not change because of this fact. The barycenter (or barycentre; from the Ancient Greek βαρύς heavy + κέντρον centre) is the center of mass of two or more bodies that are orbiting each other, or the point around which they both orbit. It is an important concept in fields such as astronomy and astrophysics.
You may be thinking the Earth/Sun distance change that is attributed to Aphelion and Perihelion which is currently about July 4th for the former and Jan 3rd for the latter.
From Wiki…
Earth is about 147.1 million kilometers (91.4 million miles) from the Sun at perihelion around January 3, in contrast to about 152.1 million kilometers (94.5 million miles) at aphelion around July 4 — a difference of about 5.0 million kilometers (3.1 million miles). These dates change over time due to precession and other orbital factors, which follow cyclical patterns known as Milankovitch cycles. (In about 12,500 years, these will be reversed for the respective hemispheres on Earth.)
Because of the increased distance at aphelion, only 93.55% of the solar radiation from the Sun falls on a given area of land as does at perihelion. However, this fluctuation does not account for the seasons, as it is summer in the northern hemisphere when it is winter in the southern hemisphere and vice versa. Instead, seasons result from the tilt of Earth’s axis, which is 23.4 degrees away from perpendicular to the plane of Earth’s orbit around the sun. Winter falls on the hemisphere where sunlight strikes least directly, and summer falls where sunlight strikes most directly, regardless of the Earth’s distance from the Sun.
In the northern hemisphere, summer occurs at the same time as aphelion. Despite this, there are larger land masses in the northern hemisphere, which are easier to heat than the seas. Consequently, summers are 2.3 °C (4 °F) warmer in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere under similar conditions.

DWR54

steven F

…there are other theories on why low sun spot numbers coincide with low temperatures.

The point is that in the current case low temperatures *don’t* coincide with low sun spot numbers. During this latest solar cycle, the weakest in living memory, new temperature records have been set in every single global temperature data set we have, including satellite data and we have seen record or near record rates of warming on a decadal scale.
As others here have pointed out, the period since 2008 has been dominated by the recent big El Nino; but If weaker solar output is so effortlessly overcome by natural ocean oscillations then they are hardly on a scale worth worrying about. Certainly nowhere near on the scale predicted by some, including David Archibald: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/20/a-dalton-minimum-repeat-is-shaping-up/

William Astley

The planet will cool due to sudden interruption to the solar cycle. There is now some evidence of the start of cooling.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.5.25.2017.gif
The delay in cooling was caused by solar wind bursts from coronal holes that suddenly appeared on the surface of the sun even though sunspot activity was low. Coronal holes create solar wind bursts which causes warming in high latitudes and at the equator.
Comment:
Sunspots and coronal holes eject pieces of magnetic flux into space. The solar wind carries these pieces of magnetic flux out into space past the orbit of Pluto. The tenuous gas and magnetic flux is called the Solar Heliosphere.
The solar heliosphere blocks what is called for stupid archaic reasons Galactic Cosmic Rays GCR or Cosmic Flux CF most is physically, mostly high speed protons, physical name should have been CP (cosmic particles) The high speed protons GCR or CF strike the earth’s atmosphere and create cloud forming ions.
The cloud forming ions help clouds form, change the cloud optical properties, change cloud life times, and affect rainfall.
The second cloud modulating mechanism (in addition to the ion mediated nucleation, GCR mechanism) is the cloud modulating mechanism which is called electroscavenging.
Solar wind bursts create a space charge differential in the atmosphere which in turn causes an electrical current to flow from high latitude regions of the planet to the equatorial regions. This flow of current also causes changes in cloud properties and amounts in both locations.
Comment: Electroscavenging
High speed solar wind bursts created a create a space charge differential in the earth’s ionosphere which in turn causes a movement of electrical charge from the earth’s poles to the equator.
Why coronal holes appear, when coronal holes appear in the solar cycle, and at what latitude coronal holes appear on the sun surface is not known.
The electrical charge movement removes cloud forming ions in the high latitude regions which causes there to be a reduction in low level clouds and an increase in cirrus clouds. A decrease in low level clouds warms the region in question due to a reduction in short wave radiation that is reflected to space albedo and an increase in the high wispy cirrus clouds causes the region in question to warm due to increased greenhouse effect of the high altitude water.
The return electrical current changes cloud properties in the equator and changes cloud lifetimes in the equator. El Nino events occur when there is large movement of electrical charge.
Recently although the number of sunspots has been dropping there has been a large number of persistent coronal holes on the surface of the sun in low latitude regions. It is these coronal holes that are partially responsible for the lack of significant cooling of the earth due to the astonishing slowdown in the solar cycle.
Offset the anomalous number of coronal holes is a reduction in the solar heliosphere density of 40%. The low density of the solar heliosphere (Solar heliosphere is the name for the tenuous gas and magnetic flux that stretches far past the orbit of Pluto.) reduces the rise time of the magnetic pulse that is caused by solar wind bursts which in turn reduces the effect on the earth ionosphere.
Now finally the size of coronal holes on the surface of sun has started to shrink and the coronal holes have started to move to high latitude regions on the surface of the sun where they no longer affect the earth. Bingo, there will be a significant increase in sea ice in the Arctic and the planet will cool. We are experience the cooling phase of a Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle.
http://www.klimarealistene.com/web-content/Bibliografi/Tinsley2007,GlobalElectricCircuit.pdf
Atmospheric Ionization and Clouds as Links Between Solar Activity and Climate
http://sait.oat.ts.astro.it/MmSAI/76/PDF/969.pdf

Once again about global warming and solar activity
Solar activity, together with human activity, is considered a possible factor for the global warming observed in the last century. However, in the last decades solar activity has remained more or less constant while surface air temperature has continued to increase, which is interpreted as an evidence that in this period human activity is the main factor for global warming. We show that the index commonly used for quantifying long-term changes in solar activity, the sunspot number, accounts for only one part of solar activity and using this index leads to the underestimation of the role of solar activity in the global warming in the recent decades. A more suitable index is the geomagnetic activity which reflects all solar activity, and it is highly correlated to global temperature variations in the whole period for which we have data.
In Figure 6 the long-term variations in global temperature are compared to the long-term variations in geomagnetic activity as expressed by the ak-index (Nevanlinna and Kataja 2003). The correlation between the two quantities is 0.85 with p<0.01 for the whole period studied. It could therefore be concluded that both the decreasing correlation between sunspot number and geomagnetic activity, and the deviation of the global temperature long-term trend from solar activity as expressed by sunspot index are due to the increased number of high-speed streams of solar wind on the declining phase and in the minimum of sunspot cycle in the last decades.

Ron Williams

William… As Spock would say, Fascinating! I learn something new here everyday, but this is something one should really give some extra serious thought to. A few questions?
“Why coronal holes appear, when coronal holes appear in the solar cycle, and at what latitude coronal holes appear on the sun surface is not known.”
Do you have any pet theories why/when/where they appear? I recall an obscure scientific paper from the 1980’s by an obscure German scientist, and his hypothesis was that it was predictable and caused by the orbital forcing of mainly Jupiter and Saturn, which caused the Sun to wobble about the center of mass of the solar system and these barycenter cycles somehow caused these through forces I am not sure exist, since I don’t know that his hypothesis gained any traction in that regard. But it sounded good in theory, and in about 1988 he predicted a cooling would be deeply intrenched by 2030. It seems things are lining up that way.
And on the chance you are a knowledgeable solar scientist…
“and an increase in the high wispy cirrus clouds causes the region in question to warm due to increased greenhouse effect of the high altitude water.”
Would all the multitude of high altitude jet liners spewing contrails of a lot of mainly water vapor exhaust (plus high altitude CO2), be a significant agent of high altitude warming in concert with differing Sun states? I recall after Sept 11, that when the skies were shut down over NA for several days, that some meteorologists noted that night time temperatures were a bit cooler, and day time temperatures were a bit hotter. Is there anything to this?

Low latitude coronal hole solar winds are now used as a major earthquake timing predictive tool with convergence streams to major low pressure systems and troughs on Earth providing a location predictive tool. See http://www.quakewatch.net for detailed information.

steven F

“Do you have any pet theories why/when/where they appear? I recall an obscure scientific paper from the 1980’s by an obscure German scientist, and his hypothesis was that it was predictable and caused by the orbital forcing of mainly Jupiter and Saturn”
Ron is this what you were thinking of? The theory was refined by including all 4 of the outer planets.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/10/13/solar-cycle-mystery-solved/comment-page-1/

Great post! This has a very loud ring of truth to it. It would be so nice to witness a resounding public vindication of truth and scientific process with the overturning of the anthropogenic global warming belief system before the eyes of the world, but people are so much more complex than that, and beliefs are far more sticky than facts. I would like to see opinion leaders who understand the swindle that has been perpetrated do more to encourage public debate about science and the flimsy foundations of CAGW. It might speed this process along, it I fear there will be no Hollywood ending.

Menicholas

Impossible to counteract emotional arguments with dry facts.

George A

The alarm won’t be dropped until globalists find a better vehicle to achieve global socialism. Even then, the green NGOs have billion$ a year at stake, so won’t let it go until another environmental crisis is found to replace it.

Paul Westhaver

What does the future hold for the climate change debate?
I think it can begin now. Debate has never really happened. Global Warming caused by man has just been vomited into existence by self-serving activist journalists, funding-seeking scientismists (Michael Nature Trick Mann), pandering politicians and, leftist social engineers. All a$$h0les
If the a$$h0les want to talk science I’d be willing but it has to be taken out of the realm of the UN for starters.
Truth by science should prevail. Not “truth” by popular opinion.
I speculate that as a consequence of a new truthful debate the activists will fade, funding will atrophy, and the obvious uncertainty and sh1tty modelling will reduce the debate to a complete bore, therefore obscurity.

John Bell

Excellent article! I agree that psychologists will be snickering about the massive scare drummed up for nothing but to get money.

I agree – I’ve been following the Climate Change scare since 2009 and I fail to find the “Climate” part all that interesting. Clearly, nothing unusual is happening climate-wise that hasn’t already happened. Whatever caused the climate then, is probably causing it now; and honestly we haven’t the slightest clue.

whiten

Mr. Aitken, let me put it this way, as Mann did, blunt or even very blunt.
I do not really care about “whys”, ” hows” and “whats” about your motivations and the drive inspiring this blog post from your point of view or your position…… meaning that I am not being judgemental….
But still anyway regarding your blog post, it stands as a proper shiny “Trojan Horse”…. A “T.H” trying to default render null and valueless the Congressional testimony of Dr. Judith….in essence…..that what it is in it’s back bone.
Stop trying to increment ACC to a status of a theory or hypothesis…it is not it…….ACC is not a hypothesis or a theory……….The only theory there that strongly supports ACC is the AGW…….ACC is not a theory……any policy making in accordance to ACC, when AGW is dead and slayed……regards only the Data and the assessment about and in relation to climate and climate change, short and long term…….
is not any more about theories or hypothesis and the long silly fights and arguments in the context of hypothesis and theories….
ACC can be any thing else but not a hypothesis or a theory……..please do stop propagating such a silly thing….
If you think you have a valid and important point, as it stands, you have to get to give a testimony to the congressional hearing……and make clear your point that Dr. Carry’s testimony means not much, because ACC magically has turned to be a hypothesis…..good luck with it if you happen to find it persuading enough..
cheers

Menicholas

What are you babbling about now?
What is “ACC”?

Crispin in Waterloo but really in Warsaw

Anthropogenic Climate Change
AG CO2 increase is claimed to cause AG Warming.
AGW is claimed to probably cause particular types of ACC.
AGW is the cause, ACC is the effect, in that argument.
He points out that there is a physics-based AGW hypothesis and holds that there is no viable (evidence based) ACC hypothesis.
The AGW hypothesis is struggling, largely because the the rapid increase in CO2 over the past 20 years without any meaningful rise in temperature.
There was never any evidence of an AG-induced change in the climate. That would require being able separate single contributors to a change in an inherently chaotic system and quantify their relative contributions. Good luck with that…

whiten

Crispin in Waterloo but really in Warsaw
May 28, 2017 at 5:27 pm
Thank you Crispin, for trying to explain my point to Meni….Appreciated a lot.
But if I may attempt a further explanation, at one particular point, that it is and seems important to me….
Yes you are right about the struggling of the AGW hypothesis as you put it, but from my point of view is a little or a lot more than it when concerning USA state….
There is a congressional testimony of Dr. Christy that simply destroys it, the AGW, literally.
The testimony of the brave Dr. which had his office sprayed with bullets if you remember……..
His testimony is enough in the way it stands, to fully support a USA stand against the Paris accord……
You see, in the context of this very blog post, as far as USA as a nation concerned the bang has already happened, very loudly and clearly, and very vividly , to a point that even Skeptics like ones here at WUWT can not actually believe it and see it OR HEAR IT…
In the USA nation the science has spoken and also testified before the Congress, very clearly, about the ACC and the policy dictated by it , and the science has being very much clear about it, with no ANY doubt at the point that persisting any further and flirting any further with any climate change policy, as per the ACC science is ridiculous and with no any bases in science…..and probably very dangerous when the economic impact considered
Four distinguished scientists have bravely testified about that, even when considering Mann in this simple aspect, have to be recognized , that he was also has being brave enough to stand up for it…..regardless of the outcome.
Simply as far as USA is concerned……the bang has already happened…the science has already spoken…now it is up to the governing powers and the elected politicians……As far as science is concerned the hands are clean, when concerning USA…….very strange but that is how is in principle by my point of view…
Please do consider in USA the big bang has already happened……no any chance for any whimper there any more in question or doubt……..
Dr.Roger Pielke Jr and Dr. Judith Carry with their testimony have scientifically tightly sealed and closed any other doors to ACC and climate change policy based on it, when further attempts than hypothesis and GCMs is considered and attempted to apply……
But what is very obvious is that the Dr. Christy’s testimony can not be actually challenged scientifically before the Congress or any where else……unless the one who could ever consider it is simply just a mad or silly one, and definitely a resident of the Planet B of Nay….
So when it comes to USA law makers the USA’s State department and the USA President, the call in the end about climate change policy has to be clearly weighted in accordance with the Scientific position according to the USA Nation and its scientific official position, as clearly demonstrated and uphold in the four testimonies before the congressional committee, I think, as per the stand that science officially has taken before the highest political and governing institution in USA…..if I am not wrong.
Big Bang…very very Big one…..no whimper there..:)
This probably went to long…:)
cheers

jipebe29

Every time a science was “official”, it turned out that it was pseudo-science. The climate science of the IPCC is official, so it’s pseudo-science. Quod erat demonstrandum …

Chimp

True. As Feynman so sagely said, “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”.
Copernicus and Galileo began modern science by breaking free from the authority of the Bible and Ptolemy, and Vesalius from Galen. Science has progressed by showing humans how insignificant we are. Just as a child has to learn that it isn’t the center of everything, our species is stumbling toward maturity by recognizing how unspecial we are.
We do not reside at the center of the universe, which revolves around us. We are not a specially created, perfect species in God’s image. We do not have enough power significantly to alter our planet’s climate.
Catholic parochial schools used to do a good job of teaching kids that they aren’t special in a good way. Nowadays public schools do the opposite, trying to make every kid think he or she is special, which genetically speaking is true, if special mean unique. Even identical twins aren’t exactly. We are all born with our own mutations, which themselves may or may not be special. We accumulate more of them during our lives, hence getting even more “special”. But this isn’t what schools mean by special.

KO

The “science” will stop the moment the university faculties and government/quasi-government institutions (eg UK Met Office, Nasa, NOAA, BoM etc) pushing it have their funding cut.
All it takes is a politician/political party in power who/which has the bottle to do it….or a real shooting war, or an economic crisis of epic proportions.
We may get any one of the three, or all of them, within the next few years. The worm is turning…

Robert

Fantastic article. I’m impressed by truth. Appreciate it when I discover it.
Nice work.

TinyCO2

I fear the picture painted in this article is right, however there may be another possibility. Never underestimate the rats leaving the sinking ship. There may come a point where politicians prefer to blame scientists for ‘tricking them’, at which they will be as vocal condemning the science as they are supporting it.

Bob Denby

‘..There may come a point where politicians prefer to blame scientists for ‘tricking them’..’
Unlikely. The pols will never turn their backs on those who pay for their campaign TV commercials — the NGOs. (And the NGOs are way too slick at fleecing the very rich and the very naive.)

Ron Williams

Ronald Reagan in his 1987 speech to the UN, said:
“In our obsession with antagonisms of the moment, we often forget how much unites all the members of humanity. Perhaps we need some outside, universal threat to make us recognize this common bond. I occasionally think how quickly our differences worldwide would vanish if we were facing an alien threat from outside this world.”
It would be interesting to see how humanity would react to say, an incoming significant asteroid/comet destined to hit earth and perhaps destroy civilization. Would humanity collectively rise to the occasion and work together through hard work, monetary sharing and finally action to be able to actually do something about it? That would be our finest hour if we were able to rise above our sectarian tendencies and achieve that success. We know that if humanity is to continue thriving into the long term future, that we will have to finally work together to solve all our problems, known and unknown, and not destroy each other.
But, the radical CAGW meme, that we are all doomed unless we change our evil CO2 ways as an existential threat to humanity, is a false flag. And how the planet must come together to ward off this threat of imminent destruction. Of course, it is much more complicated than that but we see how the Paris Accord is flawed in allowing most of the countries on earth to continue unbridled expansion of CO2 activities while receiving the benefits of the charity of 10-11 OCED countries, who simultaneously must scale back their emissions while taxing their citizens to send the charitable proceeds to the countries who will then be able to unfairly compete on an playing field that is no longer level to us.
Of course all these beneficiary nations are going to proclaim how dangerous CO2 is, while China becomes the new leader on combatting global warming/climate change and will be selling all these countries their solar and wind products while continuing their aggressive pursuit of CO2 intensive activities. Why would we negotiate this particular deal, if the goal was to actually reduce CO2 emissions? Obviously, it isn’t about that, as is proved by the actual outcome of said agreement. But this global agreement on reducing CO2 to combat the threat of global warming and climate change has nothing to do with that goal. It is a good thing that an asteroid or comet is not coming our way, because we can’t even properly identify what the real problem is with CO2 or if we chose to, how to deal with it effectively if that was our real goal.

Charles G Battig

Way before Thomas Kuhn (1962), the mass psychology of crowds and their follishness had been recognized and documented by Charles Mackay in his “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds” (1841). The AGW scam embodies a number of disparate crowds, all operating at the same herd instinct level. His book is due for an update as there are numerous new delusions to serve as examples, such as provided by the author of this blog.

The Reverend Badger.

How to end the “hoax” with a bang, not a whimper:
Take a new theory about climate. Conduct many repeatable experiments to show theory is valid. Use new theory and experimental results to build something practical and useful which you can sell for a profit (an energy producing device would be ideal). Skeptic/New theory enthusiast gets Nobel prize.
It’s like an episode of “Black Adder”.
“Sire, I have a cunning plan!”
No turnips required, just gravity and an ability to think with an open mind.

Menicholas

The warmistas are the only people that think that the climate is so simple that one theory that can be dreamed up in advance is all there is to it.
Skeptics know this is the simplistic nonsense of simpletons.

Roger Knights

the climate change researchers will quietly move on to other things (perhaps researching natural climate variability – or global cooling)

Oceanic acidification is the most likely diversion.

Menicholas

Seems doubtful.
The oceans have never been acidic and never will be.
And there is no evidence that the overall pH of the oceans is changing in a definable direction.

Roger Knights

The fact that acidification is just another scare story won’t stop climatologists from endorsing it. They’re motivated by tree-hugger feelings, so any of man’s impacts on nature are viewed by them as harmful and indefensible.

tony mcleod

And there is no evidence that the overall pH of the oceans is changing in a definable direction.
Yes there is. Stop lying.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-F7iKEeFTbs0/U9mBOtLSRcI/AAAAAAAAA4s/VBbNA_o7vVE/s1600/Chart+%E2%80%94+Decline+in+pH+measured+at+the+Aloha+station.png

Patrick MJD

“tony mcleod May 29, 2017 at 4:30 am”
Models and estimates and small sample zones represent global ocean and acid content? Rain water is BELOW pH7, ocean is ESTIMATED to be 8.2, to 8.1. Acid? You need chemistry lessons!!

Gary Pearse

Ian, your thinking on how the CAGW thing will end is good, but your sorties into the underpinnings of the science you take at face value. Scientists did start off believing in what they were doing, but when doubt reared it’s head, they cooked the books and doubled down.
Even before erasing the Pause and it’s implications, , Mann et al felt the need to abolish the LIA and the MWP in 1998 and Santer found it necessary to write a hyped alarm for policy makers when the science section said there was no evidence yet of AGW in the 1995 report. Hansen had already delivered a dire warning to Congress in 1988 and felt the need to shut off airconditioners and close windows to heat the room up! Government saw a way to tax carbon and push a global governance agenda.
The alarm was manufactured early. If someone says their is a teapot orbiting the sun between Mars and Jupiter, should we keep an open mind,, pour trillions into it and wonder if it’s correct or not? Should sceptics have to offer an alternative theory?

Ed Zuiderwijk

You never know. When in 1964 Lysenkoism ended after having been rampant for 30 years it did so very abruptly. When Andrej Sakharov read the riot act at the 1964 meeting of the Academy of Sciences, denouncing Lysenko as a quack, the latter disappeared from public view overnight. Less than a year later Lysenko and his ism had been erased from the Soviet history books. In my last job in bioinformatics I had 3 russian colleagues, only one of them was familiar with its history and one of the other two had never heard of it.
It may, of course, have helped that the Soviet Union was a totalitarian state and also that in 1963 and 1964 the harvest had failed disasterously, demonstrating clearly the idiocy of that pseudo science. But perhaps, if enough people in positions of power are angry enough when they realise that they have been told very expensive porkies, who knows what would happen?

marty

We need an alternative scare to replace the CAGW – how about some food scandal or water shortage?

>>
Basically, the man-made climate change crisis idea will probably simply follow a trajectory, not dissimilar to that of many other ‘man-made global crises’ (such as the DDT or BSE ‘crises’) . . . .
<<
Ozone hole.
Jim

David Ramsay Steele

I am generally in agreement with the gist of this, except that I predict the collapse of global warming pseudoscience will be much sooner and much more sudden. I give it five years. Of course, it will be quicker if we have a return of “the pause” and slower if we have another few years of warming. Watch how the next IPCC report handles the estimate of climate sensitivity; they can hardly leave it unchanged again.
We can expect the collapse to be messy, confused, and inaccurately interpreted by the media.
A model is the recent collapse of the “low-fat diet”, another government-promoted pseudoscience (see the book by Nina Teicholz). Although that doctrine has died, never to recover, there are still few people who grasp the point that the notion you can give yourself heart disease by eating fat is unfounded, and that government-promoted pseudoscience has led directly to the present epidemics of obesity and diabetes. You still find items on supermarket shelves boasting that they are “fat free”.
The consensus ideologues have various ploys at their disposal. One is to keep on saying what they say now, that the “deniers” deny there has been any warming, that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, and that CO2 emissions contribute to warming. Most typical consumers of the media have no idea that 99.9 percent of deniers don’t deny these facts but insist upon them. Another ploy is to give the impression that the retreat from high climate sensitivity has been occasioned by surprising new discoveries. And of course we will keep hearing that “even if it’s not as bad as we thought, we can’t be too careful.”
So, even though it may well be thirty or forty years before everyone understands that the whole thing was a major blunder, in which a segment of institutional science was hijacked by ideological zeal, the actual collapse of the pseudoscience will occur within ten years, and given a resumption of the pause, five years.
One thing to watch for is the orthodox catastrophists turning upon themselves and attacking each other with the viciousness they have heretofore reserved for skeptics, as some scientists, without openly abandoning the official line, make concessions which the more extreme proponents view as “denial”. We are in for some hugely entertaining shenanigans.

prjindigo

FIRST there would have to be actual modeling of climate done… this is where I get off the whole “CO2 BAD BAD” bus. There *aren’t* any actual models of climate. 100% of what has been pushed at us has been fucked up statistical trajectory sheets.