Guest essay by Larry Hamlin
President Trump should dump the politically contrived and scientifically corrupt 2015 Paris climate agreement as the right decision for the U.S. and the world.
Those arguing that the U.S. should continue to support the Paris process but negotiate new and different provisions are naïve and fail to appreciate that the Paris process of political and scientific corruption disqualifies it serving as a credible vehicle for advancing legitimate future climate policy proposals.
The Paris agreement and its associated processes need to be completely abandoned and a new process created which is free of the stigma of corruption which cloaks the existing Paris agreement and proceedings.
The Paris agreement is a scheme built upon a foundation of completely inadequate science as clearly acknowledged by the UN IPCC. The Paris agreement process is driven solely by the politics of climate alarmism.
The 2001 UN IPCC AR3 report established that it is impossible to create climate models which accurately represent global climate when it concluded that “In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long term prediction of future climate states is not possible.”
The most recent UN IPCC AR5 report relies upon these inadequate climate models and tries to hide this inadequacy by employing slight of hand “assessed likelihood” opinions, conjecture and speculation to improperly convey degrees of certainty of climate outcomes that are unsupported by scientifically established and mathematically derived probabilities.
The Paris agreements provisions which rely upon climate “models” that are clearly inadequate and where scientific conjecture is falsely disguised as certainty have also been unequivocally determined to be flawed and failed as documented in Congressional testimony by climate scientists before the House Science Committee in March 2017.
Climate scientist Dr. Judith presented testimony before the House Science Committee in March 2017 where she identified the fundamental flaws contained in climate models as follows:
Climate scientist Dr. John Christy also presented testimony before the House Science Committee where he employed the scientific method to evaluate the credibility of climate model temperature projections against actual measured global temperatures. He concluded that:
Dr. Christy’s tests of climate model temperature projections against actual measured global temperatures showed the model theory failed against observed temperatures at greater than a 99% confidence level.
The testimony before the House Science Committee of Dr. Curry regarding the extensive flaws contained in climate models coupled with the testimony of Dr. Christy regarding the extraordinary failed performance of these climate models in conjunction with the UN IPCC’s own acknowledgement of it’s inability to create climate models which can faithfully represent global climate clearly dictates that using such models for establishing global climate policy actions is completely inappropriate and unjustified.
Dr. Roger Pielke, Jr. addressed climate alarmist claims that man made CO2 emissions are causing more extreme weather also in testimony provided before the House Science Committee March 2017. In his testimony Dr. Pielke concluded:
The U.S. has been extremely successful in reducing greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions from its peak levels in year 2007 driven by the remarkable energy market benefits of natural gas fracking.
EPA data shows that U.S. greenhouse gas emissions have declined through year 2015 by over 10% to levels last experienced in 1994. This reduction amounts to 763 million metrics tons of lower greenhouse gas emissions.
The newly released 2017 EIA AEO report updates US CO2 emissions through year 2016 and shows emissions declining from 2015 levels as well as continuing to decline from peak year 2007 levels with forecasts of stable CO2 emissions through year 2030 without Obama’s EPA CPP “war on coal” regulations ever being in place.
The 2017 EIA AEO report shows year 2016 US CO2 and future emissions are being achieved as a consequence of the increased use of energy market available low cost natural gas which is driving down the use of coal fuel with the further impacts of lowering CO2 emissions.
Thus energy market forces provided by fracking of natural gas are driving and controlling the reduction and future stable CO2 emission levels of the U.S. without government imposing unnecessary, costly and bureaucratically burdensome regulations on the public.
In year 2030 US CO2 emissions are forecast by EIA to be 5,210 million metric tons (without Obama’s EPA CPP) which is a reduction of 790 million metric tons and over 14% below peak year 2007 CO2 levels.
The U.S. significant reductions in greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions have been hidden from the public by the climate alarmist main stream media and climate activist scientists.
During this same period between 2007 and 2030 while the US is reducing CO2 emissions by nearly 800 million metric tons per year EIA IEO 2011 and 2016 report data shows the world’s developing nations increasing CO2 emissions by over 9,900 million metric tons per year with China and India accounting for more than 5,700 million metric tons per year of the developing nations total increase.
The massive increased CO2 emissions of the developing nations including China and India are acceptable under Obama’s 2015 Paris agreement.
NOAA has just updated its coastal sea level rise tide gauge data including actual measurements through year 2016 which continues to show no evidence of coastal sea level rise acceleration.
These measurements include tide gauge data coastal locations for 25 West Coast, Gulf Coast and East Coast states along the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean, 7 Pacific island groups and 6 Atlantic island groups in all comprising more than 200 measurement stations.
The longest NOAA tide gauge data coastal sea level rise measurement record is at The Battery in New York with its 160 year long data record showing a steady rate of sea level rise of about 11 inches per century.
NOAA tide gauge coastal sea level rise data measurements encompassing the 46 year period from 1970 through 2016 do not support and in fact clearly contradict the UN IPCC AR5 WG1 conclusion regarding supposed man made contributions to increasing rates of sea level rise since the early 1970s.
Climate scientist Dr. Judith Curry provided Congressional testimony regarding the decades long frustration of dealing with the politicalization of climate science by both the UN IPCC and Obama Administration as follows:
Dr. Curry then clearly articulated the “war on science” that has been conducted by government climate science alarmist politics during the past decades:
The voluntary commitments made thus far from the 2015 Paris agreement will costs trillions of dollars to implement and produce little in actual global temperature reductions and related impacts.
It is absurd for global nations to commit trillions of dollars on government regulated climate actions based on flawed and failed climate model projections which are the products of conjecture and speculation coupled with a corrupt political process which invented a contrived “consensus” scheme to cover up the truth of flawed climate science capabilities.
The fact that those demanding such massive expenditures have worked so hard to hide and deny the extraordinary shortcomings of global climate model simulations demonstrates that a massive global government con game is being perpetrated by the climate alarmist community upon the public.
Climate models may serve useful purposes in academic and scientific studies but they are completely unsuited for purposes of regulatory driven commitments that require the expenditures of trillions of dollars of global capital which can be utilized for much greater benefit in dealing with known massive global problems including poverty, health care and education.
President Trump needs to make the right decision for the U.S. and the world by dumping the politically and scientifically corrupt 2015 Paris agreement and moving future climate policy endeavors to what hopefully will be a new and fresh beginning free of the monumental stigma of “climate science politicalization” that has so thoroughly contaminated the present Paris agreement and associated processes.