The Atlantic: Is it OK to enjoy Warm Winter Weather?

spring-flowers

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

The Atlantic is worried that a few pleasantly warm days at the end of winter may be prompting “anxiety and unease” amongst the climate obsessed.

Is It Okay to Enjoy the Warm Winters of Climate Change?

The weather is nice, but it reminds us of the problems to come.

ROBINSON MEYER 10:45 AM ET

From D.C. to Denver, from Charlotte to Chicago, towns and cities across the United States have posted strings of record-breaking summery days in what is normally the final month of winter. Wednesday was only the third time since 1880 that Green Bay, Wisconsin, cracked 60 degrees Fahrenheit in February. Ice on the Great Lakes covers only a quarter of its normal surface area. And parts of Oklahoma and Texas have both already been scorched by 90-degree afternoons.

All in all, the United States has already set more than 2,800 new record high temperatures this month. It has only set 27 record lows.

Most people handle this weather as the gift it is: an opportunity to get outside, run or bike or play catch, and get an early jump on the spring. But for the two-thirds of Americans who are at least fairly worried about global warming, the weather can also prompt anxiety and unease. As one woman told the Chicago Tribune“It’s scary, that’s my first thing. Because in all my life I’ve never seen a February this warm.” Or as one viral tweet put it:

“While we’re hearing over and over again that climate change is something we should fear, most people are experiencing it in a way that’s really quite comfortable,” says Megan Mullin, a political scientist at Duke University and one of the authors of the study. “What I take away from this is really a lesson for scientists. My Twitter stream is filled with these maps, over and over again, showing departures from historically average temperatures. In my mind, [that kind of messaging] is not going to motivate the public to treat this as a top priority.

Read more: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/02/should-you-enjoy-the-warm-winters-of-climate-change/517512/

The abstract of the study referenced by the article;

Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United States

Patrick J. Egan & Megan Mullin

As climate change unfolds, weather systems in the United States have been shifting in patterns that vary across regions and seasons. Climate science research typically assesses these changes by examining individual weather indicators, such as temperature or precipitation, in isolation, and averaging their values across the spatial surface. As a result, little is known about population exposure to changes in weather and how people experience and evaluate these changes considered together. Here we show that in the United States from 1974 to 2013, the weather conditions experienced by the vast majority of the population improved. Using previous research on how weather affects local population growth to develop an index of people’s weather preferences, we find that 80% of Americans live in counties that are experiencing more pleasant weather than they did four decades ago. Virtually all Americans are now experiencing the much milder winters that they typically prefer, and these mild winters have not been offset by markedly more uncomfortable summers or other negative changes. Climate change models predict that this trend is temporary, however, because US summers will eventually warm more than winters. Under a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions proceed at an unabated rate (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), we estimate that 88% of the US public will experience weather at the end of the century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past. Our results have implications for the public’s understanding of the climate change problem, which is shaped in part by experiences with local weather. Whereas weather patterns in recent decades have served as a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand a policy response to climate change, public concern may rise once people’s everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant.

Read more: http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v532/n7599/abs/nature17441.html

Can you imagine these people lecturing their kids, telling them that instead of playing in the sun, they should feel worried about the end of the world? No wonder they’re all permanently depressed.

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Walter Sobchak

A warmer world is a happier and healthier world.

MarkW

A cold winter is just weather, but a warm month is proof of global warming.
Sheesh.

Goldrider

The Atlantic is a far-left rant rag that’s trying desperately to keep the Liberal Narrative afloat in the age of Trump for the benefit of the permanently-disaffected chattering class who read it, mostly in the dentist’s office. Subtract the dentist and doctor waiting rooms, I wonder how many subscribers they’d really have?
The upper middle class wannabes need something to wring their hands about for the sake of virtue-signalling to their fellow social climbers. Shuddering over the absurd CAGW scenario is one of their fashionable methods of feeding their collective bummer trip through the world.

tgmccoy

Sinner! heretic! Infidel! UNBELIEVERS! Repent!
For the days of heat are upon US! Don’t look at
those Bermudas! those Bikinis! happy people enjoying
the sunshine! Bring the Prophe…er, Profit to your
benighted happy plane and he will bring blessed cold and snow!
(as he did to Park City and the Sundance fetivius.!!
(s)

Mick

And the west coast of Canada is having the coldest snowiest winter that I can remember.
And I grew up in the 60s and 70s. Not a lot of talk about global warming lately. I’m sure that it will start up again in a couple of months.

William Astley

Warm west coast winters may be a distant memory.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2017/anomnight.2.23.2017.gif
Ocean surface temperature in the Atlantic cooled 10C to 15C during past Heinrich events in the 40 to 60 degree latitude region. The cooling in the Pacific Ocean and South Ocean was less but still significant.
The issue is not just cold but amount of snowfall. West coast regions that have 20 to 30 inches of rain in the winter will have to deal with 16 feet to 23 feet of snow if ocean surface temperatures cool.

RockyRoad

…I hear “global warming” is a seasonal thing and it happens mostly in the summertime.

AndyG55

ahhh… but its not global..
I can tell you that when it gets warmer up there, it gets colder down here.
A scientific marvel that needs $10 billion for me to study this incredible phenominumnum…

Patrick MJD

“AndyG55 February 24, 2017 at 2:12 am
I can tell you that when it gets warmer up there, it gets colder down here.”
That’s why we have thermal undies.

MarkW

Regardless of the year, it also tends to happen whenever the sun is over the horizon.
However as some keep telling us, correlation is not causation.

Lee L

Hey Mick. I grew up in Vancouver in the 50s and I remember icicles hanging from the gutters, sledding down Little Mountan and one year where we ice skated on Lost Lagoon in Stanley Park. Beaver Lake in the same park, a smaller and shallower pond, froze maybe once every seven years. It froze this winter too.
Speaking of West coast, some people I talk to are surprised to learn that …
Berkeley Earth reports that calculated since 1990, Vancouver, BC (birthplace of Greenpeace) has a temperature trend of minus 1.24 C per century while Vancouver, Wa has a trend of minus 1.62 C per century.
From the same source:
Province of British Columbia .. minus .04 C per century
Washington State ………………. minus .54 C per century
Oregon …………………………….. minus .33 C per century
So much for talk of the skyrocketing temps on those parts of the Left Coast as minus does mean it cooled right? ( or does it mean that aliasing cooled the fluctuating data?).

In Victoria, buds on the ornamental plums (pink like cherry trees but bloom earlier) are 3-4 weeks later than last year.
The fountain at my apartment complex froze almost enough to cut off the flow to the strong central plume 3 times this winter, which hasn’t happened before in the 12 years I’ve been here. One of those times, the ice was thick enough for an adult to stand on.
Snow was the least of it.

Winters last hurrah. It’s interesting that when it’s warm, it’s climate change and warmer winters are constant now. Lost in this was just a couple of years ago the Great Lakes were totally frozen over. Or that Russia and Europe have been expecting a brutal winter…

Richard

No. It’s not okay.

Allison

We’ve been in the 60’s for a few weeks now. I’d be lying if I said it didn’t freak me out. But I also can’t fathom how one or two years would cause winters to “disappear,” and I’m reminded of what Dr. Easterbrook said: freak weather can happen any time and is not an indicator of climate.
Note: I am a climate activist currently questioning/leaning skeptic. Hit me with all of your wisdom!

M Courtney

Several points.
1) Warmer weather is actually beneficial. We can see that. It has to get very hot before things get problematic. And then, we cope with winter sea surges already. It may well be cheaper to adapt rather than try and prevent. We can’t know that action on climate change is doing the right thing for now.
2) As we have no idea how much of the warming is natural it may be that the effect of CO2 is saturated and any warming we have is just the natural reversal for the Little Ice Age in the Victorian era. Most CO2 emissions are post-WW2 but the rate of warming is the same before and after WW2 – since the mid-Victorian era. So prevention may be impossible. We can’t know doing anything is right for now.
3) The cost of altering the world’s energy sup[ply is huge. If it were cheaper to use unreliable renewables we would be unable to stop people using then. But it’s a lot more expensive – hence intervention from the State. The argument being that the market looks short-term but in the inevitable long-term the cost of emissions is great. But we can’t know that. we can know that resources spent now are resources not used on other things (clean water, disease prevention, education of women – and men, etc.) Yet adaptation in the future, when we actually know what needs to be done, will be paid for by the people then. And they will be far richer than we are now. The economy keeps growing and technology keeps finding cheaper ways of doing things (intensive growth). So worrying about not doing enough now is worrying about not taking enough resources from the poor and giving them to the rich. That’s right-wing, regressive Anti-Robin-Hood policies that anyone with a sense of justice should oppose. We can know that doing anything is wrong for now.
Of course, there is good and bad in every policy choice. But this a good argument as to why, on balance, action on climate change is the wrong policy for today.

Griff

shifting to a new source of energy does involve a lot of investment, yes…
but as you do it, the cost comes down.
somewhere like India or the Gulf where there is a lot of sunlight the latest solar power installations are now seeing really low costs per watt… offshore wind gets cheaper every year.
plenty of places are already well into the shift to renewables and in the plaes where there is a lot of wind or sun or little local fossil fuel 9or it has to be shipped in) we are hitting the tipping point of ‘cheaper and impossible not to use’. Australia is next on that list…

catweazle666

Making stuff again, skanky?
South Australia for one is just palnning on building new ultrasupercritical coal plant for cheap, reliable power – that’s if they can afford to after all the lawsuits for losses and damages caused by failures due to the unreliability of the ‘Unreliables’, of course.
Have you apologised to Dr. Crockford for attempting to damage her professional credentials by lyina about them yet?

Monna Manhas

Griff, South Australia is one of those places that is “well into the shift to renewables”. They have had 5 power blackouts in the last 6 months, 2 of them major ones. During a heat wave earlier this month, the Australian Energy Market Regulator imposed rolling blackouts across Adelaide and much of South Australia. Electricity prices spiked to $13,440/mWh, while the total demand was about 3000 MWh. At 6 pm on Feb 9, wind power was supplying less than 100 MWh (about 7% of its capacity). What were you saying about the “tipping point of ‘cheaper and impossible not to use'”?
h/t to Jo Nova

MarkW

Monna, Griff has already explained it. Those blackouts were the fault of unreasonable consumers demanding more power than the system was able to provide.
They should be grateful that they have power for even part of the day instead of whining that they don’t have it 24/7 like they used to.

“But as you do it, the cost comes down” is a widely held belief of renewable advocates. Skeptics wonder whether renewables can ever overcome renewable’s intermittent and diffuse flaws to the point that renewables can move beyond appropriate for niche applications to actually powering the grid. It may be technologically feasible but the grid integration costs will be huge – so huge that I believe that we cannot ever integrate renewables to the point where replacing fossil fuels is not much more expensive.

shifting to a new source of energy does involve a lot of investment
=================
Investment or taxes? Because there is a huge difference.
For most people an investment is when you take your surplus money and put it to work making more money.
However, for governments, investment is when they take tax money from average people and put it to work losing money.
Because that is what carbon taxes and green subsidies represent. Taking tax money from people and spending it on propositions that are otherwise losing money. Because if the propositions were not losing money they would not need help from the government.
And at the same time, because the average person is paying increased taxes, that tax money is not longer available to them to invest and make money.
So for the average person it is a lose-lose proposition. Money that they could use to make money is taken from them by the government and spend it on things that lose money.

actually it is probably lose-lose-lose, because as the government spends tax money on losing propositions they will need to further increase taxes to pay for the tax revenue they would have otherwise have gained had the tax money instead been spent of profitable propositions.
because unlike people, companies only pay taxes when they make a profit. people however still have to pay taxes, no matter how much of a loss their household is running at.
so, for example. A company makes $1000, but has to spend $1100 on rent to make the money, they pay no tax. An individual makes $1000, but has to spend $1100 on rent to live in the same city as where they work, rather than out in the country where rent is only $100. The individual should pay no tax, because everything they are making is spent on the rent differential, but instead the individual pays taxes on the full $1000 and their cost of rent is ignored.

MarkW

One of the posters in the 2nd fear of nuclear article made the claim that our standard of living is too high and needs to be brought down.

Samuel C Cogar

Allison, some will call it “freaky weather” …… but a better name for the causing of 80F temp on February 23rd would be “freaky” winter Jet Stream position.
The shaded area on this map depicts the Jet Stream ”winds” sucking that “hot” air up out of the southwest and pushing it toward the northeast, ….. to wit:
http://virga.sfsu.edu/archive/jetstream/jetstream/small/1702/17022400_jetstream_small.gif

Samuel C Cogar

OOPS, I should have pointed out the shaded area at the top-left corner of the above map, That looks to me like a little, per se, Polar Vortex that’s pushing “cold” Arctic air down across Alaska and British Columbia.

Brook HURD

The map also shows the atmospheric river which has been causing much higher than normal rain and snowfall in California.

Nigel S

Advice to Allison
Beware the Hippogriff!
and while you’re at it …
Beware the Jubjub bird, and shun
The frumious Bandersnatch!

Steve Fraser

Vorpal swords to the ready!

Allison:
Google “Climate Change Deciphered”…
(More proof awaiting publication)

mellyrn

Allison, I have a geology degree. To me, a few years is not climate; a few decades is not “climate”. I might be persuaded to regard a hundred thousand years as “climate”, but I’d really prefer a million.
And on that scale, Earth is experiencing an abnormally cold “snap”. Earth is normally a nice warm planet, too warm for permanent ice even at the poles; about 20 degF warmer than the current average.
Sooner or later, regardless of humans, Earth will return to “normal”. Most likely (imo) “later” — like, after another glaciation, or two, or more. And we humans will not do well when the advancing ice pushes us into the tropics — though maybe by then we can be “pushed” to our lunar or Martian colonies. That would be awesome.

John F. Hultquist

Allison,
Check out the charts for Yakima WA. Temps for January and February. Next 7 days also to be cold.
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?stn=KYKM&submit=Change+Station&wfo=pdt
The main wisdom is that CO2 was heading lower for a long time and when it gets too low plants will not grow. Thus Earth as we know it would be no more. For whatever reasons — mostly Nature adjusting with a little help from carbon based fuels — CO2 in the atmosphere is trending up. That is a good thing.
When the concentration gets to about 600/800 ppm we can all relax, knowing plants have the main building block to keep everything on Earth alive.
Any temperature change from current CO2 to 600 ppm CO2 will be sufficiently small we won’t notice. Climates (pl.) of the World will remain unchanged.

Alcheson

Consider this:
CO2 levels on earth reached in excess of 3000ppm in the past and there was NO runaway global warming. Why, now, at a mere 400ppm, barely above the level to support life on this planet is everyone afraid we are all going to fry due to runaway global warming? Also, forget ocean acidification, the oceans were still basic at 3000ppm CO2 as well.
Now relax, enjoy the weather.

James at 48

This winter’s warmth is limited to the Eastern half of the US. Out West we are having a heck of a nasty winter.

Josh

Allison, I’m in the same boat, a couple months ahead of you. I was planning on signing up for 350’s climate leadership training and did some research into the subject myself and the wheels came off the bus. I read Jim Steele’s Landscapes and Cycles and J. Dedgrick Robinson’s Global Warming, both of which were useful starting points. Also try the Freeman Dyson interviews on youtube. I’d try to get a hand on the geological history of the world and then the history of the global warming movement (recent piece about that in the New Yorker). Everything sort of falls into place from there, at least in my experience. Good luck.

Absolutely not climate worriers.
Stay in.
Enjoy nothing.
More for me.

RockyRoad

..as long as it thins out the ski slope crowds.

Crabby

So I am 30 years old and live in Massachusetts. Ever since last February when it was super warm up here I started to read more about climate change/global warming and I have had a very stressful last 12 months. Just constantly in a state of…not so much freaking out but lethargy? maybe? I am trying to find a silver lining but I am struggling to and I am also struggling to ignore climate change. Why do I care about what happens after I’m dead? Why is it affecting my life now? I want to better myself and go to the gym but even then I am like well what is the point? I have no idea why I am spewing all this info out now and here but as a laymen and certainly not a scientist. Is it dumb to be worried about this like I have been?
Is there some silver lining I am missing that should “calm” me down? Is the last few years of “unprecedented record hot years!” just hype and alarmism?

Patrick MJD

“Crabby February 23, 2017 at 6:26 pm
Is there some silver lining I am missing that should “calm” me down? Is the last few years of “unprecedented record hot years!” just hype and alarmism?”
Yup, just hype, totally man-made hype at that.

Samuel C Cogar

@ Crabby

Is there some silver lining I am missing that should “calm” me down?

“Yes”, Crabby, you sure are missing a “silver lining” …….. for your checkbook,
Its called a $2 million Federal Grant to study CAGW climate change.

old white guy

warm weather is better, it should make you fell better. crops grow in warm weather not snowy weather. sit on the deck, crack a beer and put your feet up.

Kira

Crabby, there are a lot of silver linings. The green movement and media thrive on selling fear, which is why you might be feeling worried. They work very hard at that.
It turns out that many of the things they want you to worry about aren’t a problem. Despite increased CO2, hurricanes and cyclones haven’t increased; they have slightly decreased. The polar bears are doing fine, despite a decade of lower sea ice levels in the Arctic. The Antarctic unti recently was packing on a lot of ice over a period of 30 years. Levels of drought are stable or declining. As for the “record hot years” there are a lot of concerns about data adjustments and how those numbers are made.The extra warmth hasn’t made hot days hotter, but nights and winters warmer–something you would also get with urban heat island effects contaminating the data or changes in cloud cover. The dramatic sea level predictions haven’t happened either. They are increasing more or less linearly, as they have been doing for hundreds of years. South sea islands (the ones they worried about) have gained area. And best of all, plants have become more productive because every leaf and twig you see needs CO2 to develop and grow. That has increased crop yields all over the world to feed a growing population. Plants have become more drought tolerant in areas of marginal growth. And they have become more salt tolerant as well. The increases in productivity extend to the oceans, with phytoplankton doing better with more CO2. I can’t imagine how more plant productivity can be a bad thing.
The kinds of predictions you might worry about are very unlikely to happen. And anything we might try to do is unlikely to have much impact, even if we spend trillions trying. Do some keyword searches on this site and learn more. Try “temperature adjustments”, sea level, sea ice or anything you are particularly concerned about.

gary turner

@Kira
” I can’t imagine how more plant productivity can be a bad thing.”
One word: Triffids
Triffids are an existential threat to mankind, yet people worry over inconsequentials like global warming. Where is the money to study on how to eliminate the real danger? Fund triffid research! Now!

Auto

gary turner,
Thanks for not mentioning your doctorate in triffid research, and the need for multi-hundred-million grants for said research!
Mods – SARC!
I know gary is not one of the scientists who prostitute themselves for grant monies.
I bet one or two folk reading could hazard a guess at chaps and chapesses who could, perhaps, meet that description.
In some folks’ opinion.
Auto, who loves lawyers.

Goldrider

The point is that you and others who feel like you’ve described should be clinically evaluated for depression. That’s the underlying elephant in the room. Not uncommon in the college-age crowd who are finding out that the Reality they’ll be going to work in is a little different from the one their teachers and parents promised. No life’s NOT fair, and spending it whining about all the “injustice” isn’t going to move that needle very much.
The CO2 theory which has held much of the developed world hostage for the past 30 years has now, on the basis of actual observations as opposed to computer game-playing, been debunked. Time to move on. Like you, I swallowed the horseshit and believed I was committing a Crime Against Nature every time I turned the key in my car or the heat kicked on in my house. When I started to READ, I was very relieved to discover the truth. The historic climate record, which clearly shows we have been both very much warmer and very much colder in the past, long before human activity could have contributed, is quite reassuring.
Get treated for your depression–it’s a beautiful world out there whatever the season, you should feel able to enjoy it without obsessing over the illusion of control of things well out of any human hands.

ripshin

Crabby,
Doesn’t look like there were a lot of constructive responses, but I think what might be of interest is two main points: a) warming isn’t so bad, and b) we’re not really sure just how much warming there’s been due to CO2.
Regarding point “a”, it should be noted that instead of turning the entire globe into blistering desert of unbridled heat, a global trend in increasing AVERAGE temperatures is accomplished, as far as I can tell, by a reduction in the extreme colds. This mild winter could be considered an example. (Note, I’m not attributing the current warm Feb temps to anything specific. I’m just stating that the effect of the warm winter months will necessarily adjust the average temp upwards.) So, instead of simply having an extension of the Sahara over the face of the globe, what we’re more likely to get, is a lot more Florida.
As far as point “b”, the theory that one variable (in this case, CO2), amongst the many, many variables affecting the climate, could singularly cause a temp increase, is mathematically ignorant, scientifically illiterate, and empirically inaccurate. A multivariate non-linear system, such as the climate, does not produce a linear response from a linear change to a single variable. That’s not how it works mathematically. Scientifically, what we can see is that the effects of CO2, though interesting to note, are more than compensated by other dominating feedback mechanisms, both on paper, and in the real world. Really, one only needs to consider the fact that the ocean, being as it is hundreds of times more significant that the atmosphere in terms of mass, climate affect, etc, is much more likely to be the climate driver than the thin film of atmospheric gases clinging loosely to the surface of our globe. The ocean’s the dog…the atmosphere’s the tail. Sure, changes in the composition of atmospheric gases will have some level of impact, but it’s in the margins. That’s the science of it. And finally, empirically speaking, we do not observe the predicted effects of a CO2-driven climate change. This has been extensively documented through empirical observations. See, for example, this post and the linked paper describing the empirical, observational evidence that exists in the real world: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/22/study-tropical-hotspot-fingerprint-of-global-warming-doesnt-exist-in-the-real-world-data/.
So, cheer up. The world’s not ending. By almost every measurable standard, the earth is a better place than it was even one hundred years ago. Humans, for all our faults, aren’t unilaterally destroying the planet, but rather, gradually learning how harness it, use it and maintain it all at the same time.
Hope this helps.
rip

Alan McIntire

I tried to learn a little about the “greenhouse effect” by surfing the web. I found the late John Daly’s site to be especially informative.
http://www.john-daly.com/miniwarm.htm

“Ever since the Industrial Revolution took off in the 18th century, vast quantities of fossil fuels have been used to power the economy and deliver unprecedented affluence to huge numbers of people.”
https://www.mhi-global.com/discover/earth/issue/history/history.html
We have wealth and affluence to deal with change. That was not so true a century or two ago. Imagine vast parts of the U.S. without an electrical grid.

Frederick Michael

Check the seed catalogs; you may have gained a climate zone. If you’re a gardener, that should cheer you up.

James at 48

OK. How about this. We have 40 feet of snow at Mammoth Mountain.

Jeff Alberts

I think “Crabby” and “Allison” are either the same person, or form the same group, trolling.

catweazle666

This may help to reassure you:

Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with consequences for the functioning of the Earth system and provision of ecosystem services1, 2. Yet how global vegetation is responding to the changing environment is not well established. Here we use three long-term satellite leaf area index (LAI) records and ten global ecosystem models to investigate four key drivers of LAI trends during 1982–2009. We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend, followed by nitrogen deposition (9%), climate change (8%) and land cover change (LCC) (4%). CO2 fertilization effects explain most of the greening trends in the tropics, whereas climate change resulted in greening of the high latitudes and the Tibetan Plateau. LCC contributed most to the regional greening observed in southeast China and the eastern United States. The regional effects of unexplained factors suggest that the next generation of ecosystem models will need to explore the impacts of forest demography, differences in regional management intensities for cropland and pastures, and other emerging productivity constraints such as phosphorus availability.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n8/full/nclimate3004.html

Richard M

The effect of more CO2 is to produce warmer nights and winters along with cooler days and summers. And, this appears to be what the data is showing when corrected for natural cycles. In other words, it is good for the vast majority of life.

Greg

which is exactly why the unverifiable Karl et al paper was a frawd.

They know that the effects of warming are not the same on day and night, yet use nocturnal marine air temperatures NMAT to “correct” daytime SST data.

the main effect of CO2 is to even out the temperature all over the earth. this is most evident on Venus, where daytime and nighttime temperatures are almost identical, even though day and night on Venus last 116 earth days.
In contrast, if Earth rotated at the same speed as Venus, the oceans would likely boil on the daylight side and freeze on the nighttime side.

Gamecock

Weather phobias abound.

pameladragon

This is hardly the first time we have had mild winters over the past few decades. And let us not forget that Europe and a lot of the US had brutal weather and lots of snow too this year! Didn’t a major, Named Storm, just clobber NYC and points north? Phooey, if you have nice weather right now (like I do) just enjoy it and stop looking for the catch, the catastrophe, the end of the world that was supposed to happen a few years ago.
PMK

Every silver lining has a cloud. Now we know where the snowflakes come from. Even a beautiful day isn’t a “safe space”.

So I am 30 years old and live in Massachusetts. Ever since last February when it was super warm up here I started to read more about climate change/global warming and I have had a very stressful last 12 months. Just constantly in a state of…not so much freaking out but lethargy? maybe? I am trying to find a silver lining but I am struggling to and I am also struggling to ignore climate change. Why do I care about what happens after I’m dead? Why is it affecting my life now? I want to better myself and go to the gym but even then I am like well what is the point? I have no idea why I am spewing all this info out now and here but as a laymen and certainly not a scientist. Is it dumb to be worried about this like I have been?
Is there some silver lining I am missing that should “calm” me down? Is the last few years of “unprecedented record hot years!” just hype and alarmism?

M Courtney

How hot does it have to be before it becomes a problem?
So far it’s been beneficial.
And why are you sure it’s not natural? The IPCC can’t determine why is natural, after all. And they can’t model it either.
So relax and enjoy the sunshine. And focus on the problems for today.
Our ancestors who fought WW2 were not foolish enough to ignore totalitarianisms and worry about the weather today. Why not worry about poverty today and let the grandchildren worry about the weather they face?
Remember, even the worst scare stories about climate change were solved by the Dutch in the Middle Ages, using the technology they had then.

Tom in Florida

Old saying:
“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, Courage to change the things I can, And wisdom to know the difference. .”
Now add this to the mix:
“Life is short and then you die”
So, Crabby654, stop worrying and do your best to enjoy the short time you have here. There are do overs.

Tom in Florida

There are NO do overs.

MarkW

I am currently trying to renegotiate that part of my contract.

MarkW

Tom, unless you believe in re-incarnation.

Alan McIntire

I also live in Massachusetts. My yardstick for memory is the Joe Val Bluegrass Festival, every Presidents’ Day Weekend in February. This year, it was balmy, temps in the 40s and 50s. Two years ago a blizzard stranded some trying to get home, and kept some from attending. Three or four years ago it was such bitter cold (c. 5º F) that walking from the distant parking lots was torture.
This week it’s gotten into the 60ºs. We had 15″ of snow on the ground from two weeks before, but now it’s rapidly melting. A few winters ago we had so much snow, from January storms, that plowing the driveway wasn’t enough; we had to have a front-end loader come in to remove snow.
It’s all weather. Twenty thousand years ago Boston was covered by a mile of ice. It like likely happen again, maybe sooner than we would like. There is no empirical evidence that CO2 from fossil-fuel burning causes any measurable increase in either local or ‘global’ temperatures.
Enjoy the unexpected warm SW winds. Turn off the TV, get out for a walk in the woods, and listen to the birds.
/Mr Lynn

Jeff Alberts

Reposting under a slightly different name. crabby?

nigelf

I find it hard to believe that someone would try and take this great weather and try to scare people with it.
Give it up folks, your failed scam has no traction anymore with those of us with more than two brain cells to rub together.

Goldrider

The Weather Channel has elevated the weather scare story to an art form all it’s own! They can parlay an ordinary rainy day into a State of Emergency, and if today’s weather’s not scary enough, they play endless footage of past hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods. They do it because FEAR STOPS EYEBALLS and eyeballs sell advertising. This is what you get when most of our cultural “content” is now produced by people who’ve never worked outside, never gotten dirty, never raised their own food or been in contact with “nature” outside of a manicured urban park.

Gunga Din

😎
I’ve noticed that TWC has been putting a graphic lately of “Potential Record Highs”. Lots of red dots this morning. Maybe they do but I’ve never noticed them saying the next how of those were a bust.

Kalifornia Kook

We should never enjoy this beautiful planet. When God created man, he had no idea the horrors he was unleashing on his blue jewel. Wait… God is omniscient, so that can’t be. In fact, everything is going according to plan.
Ah – fortunately, I do not believe in God, so I don’t believe he put us here. Must have been some alien. If that doesn’t work, then maybe we are indigenous to the planet, and just part of the system. We are either derived of this planet, or not. If so, then the planet is ours. We don’t have to share. T-Rex did not share. He was fine until a big meteor hit us. If you think that was Gaia crying for help, go back to the first paragraph please.
Enjoy it. Enjoy everything that is thrown at us! I love snow, I love warm summer days spent on an inner tube in the Colorado River. That is the way it is supposed to be. Don’t waste, but don’t force an undue penance on yourself – or me.

RockyRoad

…or you crawled out from under a rock!
Well, not you, specifically, but your ancestors a million generations back, but how far back makes no difference.
And since the chemicals in the human body are worth $15 or so, that should humble a lot of people (since it takes more than $15 to convert them into separate, salable products)…
…especially non-believers.

fortunately, I do not believe in God, so I don’t believe he put us here
=============
you have it backwards. evolution moves towards perfection, with many missteps along the way. not just on earth, but across the universe. at the end of time perfection will be achieved and God will be born. God didn’t create the universe. The universe exists to create God. However, I expect we can all agree that Al Gore is living proof that human beings are a misstep.

Jeff L

It hasn’t been this warm of a February since 1954 …. but we had hardly added any CO2 to the atmosphere. How could that be??
Maybe the this is related to CO2 or “climate change”
JB – if you are reading -thanks for the post on WB site showing how warm Feb 1954 was … maybe you can elaborate

Samuel C Cogar
Jeff L

This is really funny … people actually enjoy warmer weather (surprise, surprise) . Talk about an uphill battle … lets try do something to try to make the weather / climate colder. Not going to be many takers on this.

Jer0me

Here in Oz we have media bleating incessantly about 40+C days and bushfires. I mean, who ever heard of 40+C and bushfires in Oz before? It’s this wild weather, I tell you!
Meanwhile, a complete silence about our cyclone drought. We have had one minor cyclone (not sure if it hit land) so far, and summer is nearly over. Our children won’t know what cyclones are!

Patrick Peake

And Western Oz has been having rain and days as cold as 17C. So on average Oz has had a pleasant homogenised 30 odd degrees.

Johann Wundersamer

So soll es auch sein.
That’s how it should be.

Catcracking

Could this be related to to the cold not pouring down so far from the Arctic?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

Catcracking

Sorry need to click on the image to updat dramatic decline N of 80 degrees.

Mark - Helsinki

same reason why greenland pilling on mass, weather, winds.

Stephen Singer

I noticed they picked the most extreme and UNLIKELY pathway, 8.5, for climate change for their study. I’ve noticed in many studies we’ve seen on this site about climate change the same bias to the most unlikely pathway.
GET REAL climate change researchers!!!!

Michael Jankowski

Are these people idiots, nutjobs, or both?

Stephen Greene

No, just Liberals. ARG!

AndyG55

ummm.. I’m sure you meant to type…
YES, they are liberals,,,, arghhhh !!!

Auto

Or, perhaps, piggies with two trotters, at least in the trough.
Or watermelons, Citrullus, seeking power through taxes – and the elimination of over ninety percent of living human beings.
Auto, who didn’t trust Khrushchev, let alone the ‘cuddly’ Putin . . .

Michael Jankowski

There are places that stay cold year-around. These morons should move.

Steve Case

It got to 70 deg F here in Milwaukee yesterday. If it weren’t for the 0.8 deg C increase in world temp since 1850 we would have gotten to only 68 deg F or so. For this I’m supposed to change my life style?

Nigel in Santa Barbara

+1

Mason

No, just fork over most of your earnings to pay the warmistas to protect you.

Resourceguy

+1
It’s out of the abundance of caution that you must fork it over and be warned not to fact check the liberal messaging of wealth redistribution for the good of the Party. How else could we bail out the Chicago pension systems without faithful consistency of the message mixed with periodic over reach methods like Waxman Markey bills?

BallBounces

Chilly Phoenix called. They want some of their heat back.

Richard G

There are frost warnings for So Cal for Friday morning. Someone stole their warmth.

Stephen Singer

RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway Definition
AR5 global warming increase (°C) projections[5] 2046-2065 2081-2100
Scenario Mean and Mean and
likely range likely range
RCP2.6 1.0 (0.4 to 1.6) 1.0 (0.3 to 1.7)
RCP4.5 1.4 (0.9 to 2.0) 1.8 (1.1 to 2.6)
RCP6.0 1.3 (0.8 to 1.8) 2.2 (1.4 to 3.1)
RCP8.5 2.0 (1.4 to 2.6) 3.7 (2.6 to 4.8)

It has been the ultimate in propaganda.
Just imagine the scene at the end of the war in which someone predicts that a pseudoscience hoax could be launched that would eventually convince the entire world that it was getting warmer, when in fact it has been getting colder since the termination of the third Reich. Bernays and Goebbels would have understood.

Louis

“…we estimate that 88% of the US public will experience weather at the end of the century that is less preferable than weather in the recent past.”
That means that after 80 years, 12% won’t even notice that the weather has gotten worse. If over 10% of the public doesn’t notice a world-wide catastrophe, it can’t be very catastrophic, can it? The “climate obsessed” are so panicked by what MIGHT happen 80 years from now that they can’t enjoy good weather today. Someone needs to teach them the meaning of Carpe diem.
I think these climate worriers have a bigger problem to worry about than climate change. It’s called mental illness. If these hypochondriacs didn’t have climate change to obsess about, they would simply find something else. Before climate change came along, they did find other things to worry about, from acid rain and DDT to nuclear winter and the China syndrome. I guess I should be grateful that climate change has distracted them from many other potential problems, except that they are determined to make us pay trillions to help them feel better about it. The fact is, nothing will make them feel better, no matter how much we spend. They don’t want to feel better. That would destroy their victim status. What they really want is for the rest of us to be as miserable as they are.

David Chappell

“…That means that after 80 years, 12% won’t even notice that the weather has gotten worse.”
probaly a lot more than 12% because they will, like me, be dead by then.

Stanley Baer

So true. It’s in their character structure. They want turmoil around all the time. If energy were truly cheap and available and people were happy and content, their heads would explode.

Not Chicken Little

I see someone already said it, but these people are insane. Or maybe just borderline psychotic, or as we used to say, “Thet boy jest ain’t right in the haid”.

PiperPaul

I was just about to write something similar. It seems like we’re dealing with a form of psychotic breaks or something, brought on by decades of fear-mongering and/or conditioning. Weird.

hunter

The authors of this study are, to be charitable, historically illiterate. Additionally they seem unaware of the difference between “climate” and “weather”.
A light winter like this is “weather”. Not “climate”.
But the academics know how to shake the magic science grant tree by genuflecting to the climate apocalypse, so they are imminent scientists, it would seem.

Not Chicken Little

But certainly not eminent or immanent.

Sara

I know anecdotal evidence is always dismissed out of hand, but having grown up in the Midwest, in the Corn Belt, I can assure anyone who reads this that there have been winters with warm, sunny days and a Chinook in January or February that was a welcome relief from snow, and winters when the confounded snow and cold were more annoying than some climate geek’s bad breath.
This winter, lovely warm days in February after a beastly cold end of December; it’s been so nice the birds are ignoring my food offerings. Last winter, I stayed up all night in late February to shovel snow off my front steps until 5AM, because I didn’t want to have to dig out for the umpteenth time, and the birds thronged my feeding station. I have pictures and everything, and I make a note of the weather readings (temp, humidity, WC, etc.) several times a day, but I’m not a scientist, so it doesn’t count. I don’t get grants to do it, either, so I don’t have to justify my existence in a world of hoohaa panic attacks over NOTHING.
Someone please let me know if I have to sacrifice a goat cheese and some wine to Shu, the Egyptian god of the Weather/Atmosphere, okay?
Oh, yeah – if the problem is excess CO2 showing up, it would help a lot if the panicky climate fear freaks would just zip their mouths shut. That would cut their carbon load by about 6 billion annual cubic tonnes of carbon dioxide. The air would smell a lot cleaner, too.

Auto

Sara,
I suggest that you sacrifice the goat cheese, but sent me the wine. It will be sacrificed, I assure you!
Yesterday, we has Storm Doris. A rather nasty 12 hours, causing one death, about four serious/life threatening injuries, and seriously disrupted trains. It is February.
Auto

Trebla

This is all so silly. Our human lifespans are like the blink of an eye compared to the Earth’s 4 billion year history. What can we possibly deduce about the climate from such a tiny and meaningless sample?

Rhoda R

Weather is lovely and so is the power bill.

Johann Wundersamer

no kidding.
So you can sit on the ferry on chicago in the winter sun doing breakfast withcomment image
and http://images4.mysupermarket.co.uk/Products/59/293359.jpg?v=4

Ed Zuiderwijk

Now you’re talking!

markl

One wonders how much natural variation in weather it will take for people to understand all is normal. Or maybe they already do understand.

Manfred

+1000

John Robertson

This has to be the psychosis of the city dweller.
No one but a creature of the urban sprawl could avoid the weather so reliably , flitting from heated building,bus,car or train in the winter and air conditioned boxes all summer.
Without our current population distribution would the Climate Hysteria even be possible?

markl

“This has to be the psychosis of the city dweller.” Excellent observation!

Dave in Canmore

John Robertson I’ve thought this constantly during this climate nonsense. The disconnect between researchers and true believers and the actual environment leaves them with so many misconceptions of how nature operates. They all suffer from thinking nature is fragile and delicate and that man is the center of all things. A perfect backdrop of misinformation to superimpose their confirmation bias.

Johann Wundersamer
Manfred

No wonder they’re all permanently depressed.

If I might …
“No wonder they’re all permanently depressing

RockyRoad

…I find a strange sense of satisfaction in their depression. By contrast, I’m doing just fine!
Reply: #allschadenfreudematters ~ctm

talldave2

Dumb. In the Midwest we had record cold and record ice extents just a few years ago. Also, a one degree difference is imperceptible amidst the normal 100 degree annual variance.

PJ

These nice warm days in the last month of winter terrify me. No, not because I fear being outside in nice weather. No, not because I fear it is just a sign of the impending doom to be caused by climate change. It is because I fear it will lead to even more intolerable rhetoric that the global warmers will spew because of the nice weather. We recently almost broke a temperature record here – a record that was set in 1915 or so – over 100 years ago. I bet the citizenry and press of that day weren’t worried about a few nice days in February. They just relished in the pleasant weather near the end of winter – like we should!

Mick

And 1915 didn’t have the same UHI effect.

Mark - Helsinki

This first 3rd of this piece is full of lies and nonsense. 2/3rd of Americans fairly worried about global warming? utter rubbish, maybe they mean 2/3rd of Holthaus’ neighbourhood have been depressed by Eric with patent falsehoods
Record cold records have smashed record warms since 2010, by thousands more records, but lets not let the truth get in the way of a homogenised lie eh

MarkW

They got the 2/3rds from the same place they got the 97%.

Leon Brozyna

Now let’s see … here on Dec 15 where the average high temp was 36°F, the actual high was only 16°F, or twenty degrees below average; lately here, at the end of February, we’ve been experiencing temps twenty degrees ABOVE average (min-fifties). Now, which would I prefer … gee … that’s a tough one.
Now, for all those critters wringing their hands over climate change, try taking a walk with temps in the teens, then try it with them in the fifties, and try saying with a straight face that you prefer the teens.
Of course, this year it seems that all our snow has gone west to California. Enjoy it while you can … I’m afraid that next year out snow will be back … with a vengeance.

keith bryer

There bis a word for this: Millenarianism. Its a collective madness that comes around every 1000 years. It is exclusively judeo Christian disease. Like the flu it morphs each time it hits. Affects intellectuals each time.

Non Nomen

Affects intellectuals each time.

I wonder why they are not extinct by now. Adaptation?

Rod Martin Jr

It’s perfectly okay to enjoy the warmth. Global Warming will melt ice, but this notion of the tropics bursting into flames is complete hogwash. Even Al Gore got this point right in his Inconvenient Lies film. The tropics will be barely affected by Global Warming. Most of the “heat” goes to melting the ice.
In the mid-60s, I lived in the DC area and experienced an entire week in February with temps in the 80s. Trees starting sprouting green and then another snow slammed it all shut. That’s called “weather.” It happens.
And since we live in an ongoing Ice Age, warmth is a good thing.

Leonard Lane

An intellectual is a person who thinks I’m, so so smart!
But so many average people work and live and enjoy life without thinking about the intellectuals at all. That is, until they come up with the next scheme to live off the taxpayers.
DDT, Alar & apples, ozone holes, climate turning cold we will all die, nuclear winter, Global warming,… And, the taxpayers dread the next scheme to unfold; because they know their taxes will always go up to pay for those who are so so smart.

Johann Wundersamer

Al Gores al Jazeera still spinning lies:
about european colonisation of Afrika:
The christian kingdom of Alans and Vandals brought civilization to northafrica, their auxiliary numid troops were bound into this developing civilization.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vandal_Kingdom
An ideological agressiv islam overturned that early civilization that could have been a first blueprint for development in northafrica.
The Arabs were the first to do slave raids into black africa to fill harems and do domestic work.
It’s laughable that till today that narrative is held upright and cries for ‘reparations’.

Perry

You will find that Justinian the Great sent his general Belisarius to bring North Africa back within Byzantine (Greek) Roman rule. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vandalic_War
Imperial control scarcely reached beyond the old Vandal kingdom, however, and the Moorish tribes of the interior proved unwilling to accept imperial rule and soon rose up in rebellion. The new province was shaken by the wars with the Moors and military rebellions, and it was not until 548 that peace was restored and Roman government firmly established.
I doubt that Gore blimey has even heard of Procopius, Justinian’s biographer, let alone read him.

Steve Case

Claiming that warmer weather will be a disaster, is selling a refrigerator to an eskimo times ten. But it’s been done and in spades.

Non Nomen

Mankind hasn’t realized yet that the weather changes incessantly as well as the climate does. Overworried fearmongering pseudo-scientists enjoy heating up the atmosphere, at least verbally. But I am a spoilsport: warmer is better. No reason to worry. Period.

4TimesAYear

Taint anywhere near over. We can get snow and cold clear into May. And we’re getting payback tonight and tomorrow with a blizzard. Oh – and just think of all the CO2 that wasn’t emitted because we didn’t use as much fuel for heat.

Darrell Demick (home)

Had a chat with a very educated individual this afternoon about CO2, global warming, the whole gambit. He was of the very clear opinion that. “if 97% of the scientists say that we are doing damage, then we must be doing so.” Believe me, I am attempting to pass as much information as possible through this individual as possible, and allow this individual to formulate an opinion based on all of the information. And personally, I am okay if they chose to believe that we are doing damage. This individual is very educated and if this individual decides that damage is being done, I will respect the opinion of this individual.
I will not agree, but I will respect.
Enough preamble, the message that I am attempting to portray is that mainstream media are painting a picture, and irrespective of your personal opinion on this picture, this is what is being disseminated to the general population and it is an overwhelmingly powerful message! Therefore yes, it comes as no surprise to me that a very large percentage of the population will have angst over ANY unusual “weather” (note: “weather” is over a matter of days/weeks/months; “climate” is over centuries/millennia/millions of years – BUT YOU KNOW THAT).
Up here in the Great White North, some areas of the province of Alberta hit record highs a few days ago, barely surpassing temperatures of 100 years ago. MESSAGE TO THE UNBELIEVERS: the weather was THE SAME AS NOW, 100 years ago!
Heck, I had to shovel snow this morning whereas last year at this time, I was taking my motorcycle out of storage for an early start to the season. My angst is opposite of the majority, I want warmer weather NOW, so I can get out and enjoy life on two wheels.

JohnWho

“if 97% of the scientists say that we are doing damage, then we must be doing so.”
Therefore, since 97% of the scientists (presumably “climate scientists” in this discussion) have not said that we are doing “damage”, then we must not be.
Assuming your friend is “very educated” and reasonably intelligent, he should know that there is no 97% agreement that we are doing “damage”.

Darrell Demick (home)

It is my opinion that there are a lot of well educated people who truly believe in what mainstream media are publishing on a daily basis. That plus they do not dig into the large body of work that has been done to refute the CAGW nonsense.
I was on the fence for a very long time – hey, if all of the mainstream media are saying it is so ….
It wasn’t until I dug into the information on the Carboniferous period, found the infamous 600 million year plot of CO2 concentration and temperature, saw a video about how Canada is responsible for the eventual drowning of the Marshall Islands, and my blood has been boiling ever since. Did a lot of digging into this topic and am trying to persuade people away from The Dark Side.

Johann Wundersamer

http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/techknow/2016/11/coral-catastrophe-fighting-save-dying-reefs-161103101254532.html
will build super corals so in 40 years al Gores ‘scientists’ will repair the reefs. Nobody told him when to run. For environmental help.

Perry

Don’t you mean algoreezza?

oakwood

The government was worried about unsusual winter warmth in January 1662, at the height of the Little Ice Age. Just to show, short term climate quirks are not at all unsusual:
15 Jan 1662
“… it is a fast day ordered by the Parliament, to pray for more seasonable weather; it having hitherto been summer weather, that it is, both as to warmth and every other thing, just as if it were the middle of May or June, which do threaten a plague …”
http://www.pepysdiary.com/diary/1662/01/
In contrast, on 1st Jan 1667:
“Lay long, being a bitter, cold, frosty day, the frost being now grown old, and the Thames covered with ice. “