By Larry Kummer. Posted at the Fabius Maximus website.
Summary: The “permanent drought” in California, like the now ended “permanent drought” in Texas, is ending. But like the panic about Texas, it is rich in lessons about our difficulty clearly seeing the world — and the futility of activists exaggerating and lying about the science. Of course, they should have learned this after 29 years of trying (starting from James Hansen’s 1988 Senate testimony).
Warnings of a permanent drought in California
Remember all those predictions of a “permanent drought” in California? Those were examples of why three decades of climate alarmism has not convinced the American people to take severe measures to fight anthropogenic climate change: alarmists exaggerate the science, and are proven wrong — repeatedly. When will the Left learn that doomster lies do not work?
Wired, May 2016: “Thanks El Niño, But California’s Drought Is Probably Forever“. “California is still in a state of drought. For now, maybe forever.” The article gives no support — none — for this clickbait claim. In January Wired attempted to weasel away from their claims by defining drought to mean needing more water than nature provides (“A Wet Year Won’t Beat California’s Never-Ending Drought“). Orwell nodded, unsurprised.
The NYT did no better in “California Braces for Unending Drought“, May 2016. The closest the article comes to supporting their headline is an odd statement by Governor Brown: “But now we know that drought is becoming a regular occurrence…” Drought has always been a regular occurrence in California. The governor also said that “California droughts are expected to be more frequent and persistent, as warmer winter temperatures driven by climate change reduce water held in the Sierra Nevada snowpack and result in drier soil conditions.” That is probable. But it is quite mad for the NYT to call more frequent droughts “an unending drought.”
Status of the California drought
“During the past week, a series of storms bringing widespread rain and snow showers impacted the states along the Pacific Coast and northern Rockies. In California, the cumulative effect of several months of abundant precipitation has significantly improved drought conditions across the state.”
— US Drought monitor – California, February 9.
Precipitation over California in the water year so far (October 1 to January 31) is 178% of average for this date. The snowpack is 179% of average, as of Feb 8. Our reservoirs are at 125% of average capacity. See the bottom line summary as of February 7, from the US Drought monitor for California.
The improvement has been tremendous. The area with exceptional drought conditions have gone year over year from 38% of California to 0%, extreme drought from 23% to 1%, severe drought from 20% to 10% — while dry and moderate drought went from 18% to 48%, and no drought from <1% to 41%. See the map below. And the rain continues to fall.
For data about the western states see the dashboards at NOAA’s Western Water Assessment. For a longer-term perspective on the western drought see NOAA’s “Western drought: It ain’t over ’til…well, it ain’t over” by Deke Arndt, 2 February 2017. It will take years of good rain and snow to recharge California’s groundwater.
Conclusions
“We don’t even plan for the past.”
— Steven Mosher (member of Berkeley Earth; bio here), a comment posted at Climate Etc.
Journalists could have told us that historical data shows that past droughts in the US southwest lasted for centuries, a grim warning encouraging us to prepare. Droughts, often long and fierce, are the natural climate of this region. But telling the truth was boring — bad clickbait — and would have been politically useless for the Left. But their exaggerations and misrepresentations of science — and failed predictions — have only eroded away the public’s support for sensible measures to control and allocate water use.
This has been their way since they discovered that weather porn was good clickbait and might support their campaign for aggressive public policy measures to fight anthropogenic climate change. The result: contributing to the public’s loss of trust in the news media and an almost complete failure to get their policy changes.
In this as in other things, only a reality-based community can reform America. Too bad neither Left nor Right has any interest in giving up their tribal beliefs to focus on the often-inconvenient truth. Look here for ideas about ways you can help.
For More Information
See all posts about droughts, and especially these …
· Droughts are coming. Are we ready for the past to repeat?
· Everything you want to know about California’s drought (except when it will end), Nov 2014.
· Key facts about the drought that’s reshaping California, March 2015.
· Our response to California’s drought shows America at work to enrich the 1%.
From the article: “In this as in other things, only a reality-based community can reform America. Too bad neither Left nor Right has any interest in giving up their tribal beliefs to focus on the often-inconvenient truth.”
Equating the Left and Right in this manner is incorrect.
The Left is much more prone to living in a false reality than is the Right. The Right doesn’t have nearly as many crazies associated with it as does the Left. Not even close.
You don’t see thousands of Repubicans roaming America’s street tearing things up, do you? No, you see the Left doing all the destruction and all the hating. Not the Right.
Don’t equate the Left with the Right. They are two completely different animals. Only those who want to blur the differences, or those who don’t understand the differences, do such things. Don’t do it.
Drought duration by U.S. county (2010 – 2016)
http://www.ecoclimax.com/2017/02/drought-duration-by-us-county-2010-2016.html
Global warming should make thing wetter. Why is this consistently reported incorrectly?
Warm air contains more moisture than cold air. Warm air evaporates more water from the oceans, and transports that water to the land. Looking back historically, times of intense glaciation have also been times of intense desertification, and visa versa.
Warm is wetter.
Fabius M. “Too bad neither Left nor Right has any interest….” Your even-handedness is commendable, but the right is definitely coming off a bit better on this, you have to admit. You have divided the population “debating” climate change into right and left. There are (at least) four divisions: right contrarians (for things left, good or bad), right scientifically literate contributors who practice empirical and objective science the old fashion way, left scientific illiterates who, none the less value solidarity with their elites and accept what they are told, and left scientists who even admit to dishonesty but justify it because the direction it takes us politically is the correct one (there are of course honest ones but they have little influence on the “debate”). Each side likes to identify the other monolithically as the non scientific members of the tribe, I’ll give you that.
But a larger problem is you, yourself. You actually believe (not being a scientist) that honest debate between the two would resolve the differences. That there are honest differences and legitimacy on both sides. You don’t buy into the idea that the new left isn’t really interested in the science. It is the leverage that this CAGW scare gives them to achieve political ends. Indeed, you see they are wrong on droughts and a host of other scary scenarios, but why would you think that the CAGW scientists refuse to debate the science. They can’t believe the science is settled – take the California endless drought for example, or the constant fiddling with the temperature record that always makes the past cooler and the present warmer. Nature itself is winning the debate anyway and that should cause you to think a little more deeply into motivations…and the right being on the side of an angel or two.
this article is 50% bull manure . ground water is a major issue and one or two wet winters will not solve it, I know and am living with it.