Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Imagine for a moment that all the wild claims of climate driven future weather disasters will occur as predicted. In this imaginary future climate dystopia, how will wind power cope with super storms? How will solar power cope with hail, tornadoes, cyclones and floods? How will hydro power cope with endless droughts? How will biofuel crops cope with storm damage, droughts and unseasonal heatwaves?
Solar and wind power lose their shine
GARY JOHNS, Brisbane
It is exquisite that we are to place our energy future in renewables, the energy source most prone to the beast that we are trying to slay: climate change.
Non-renewables, by contrast, are least reliant on climate. Come hell or high water, coal, gas and oil can be pumped, refined and burned.
Fossil fuels are our natural store built from eons of climate change. They are our insurance against the effects of climate change.
The climate change gambit has always been a Goldilocks story. The speed and damage of climate change had to be not too hot (or rapid) and not too cold (or slow), it had to be just right. Too rapid or hot and renewables would never work. Too delayed or cool and the world could wait for better technologies. Renewables seemed right only in the just right scenario.
But, what if climate change creates more clouds, calms the wind, stops rivers flowing, or wipes out bio-crops in regions where panels, turbines, hydro and biofuel stock are located?
You would think CSIRO would research the risk. But it has nothing to say.
The US Environmental Protection Agency says no more than that “the impacts of climate change on wind and solar power is still a developing area of research”.
…
As Gary Johns points out, even assuming that other show stopper problems such as intermittency are solved somehow, renewables can only work if climate changes at a pace which is “just right” – if the global climate does not worsen sufficiently to render them useless.
Nuclear and fossil fuel plants have their vulnerabilities, but nothing like the vulnerability presented by thousands of square miles of fragile infrastructure just waiting for the next superstorm to blow through and smash everything in sight. Or in the case of solar power, the next mild breeze which covers everything with dust.
Climate “Science” on Trial; Eisenhower Warned Us About Climate Scientists
https://co2islife.wordpress.com/2017/02/09/climate-science-on-trial-eisenhower-warned-us-about-climate-scientists/
We are there now. Some fifty years later!
Hot but not unusually hot for South Australia
But not enough electrons to go around
http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/rolling-blackouts-ordered-as-adelaide-swelters-in-heatwave/news-story/13394f19db1ee94a59f4036fccdc1ba7
SA tries to import power from other states but if it is not available blackouts are the price for the “high moral ground”
That’s a good one:
“There were issues during the September blackout where AEMO wasn’t aware of the severe winds but you just needed to turn the TV on to find out how hot it was.”
_________________________________
Turn the TV on without electricity supply
– to feel how hot it is.
Republicans are now pushing for a CO2 tax. I thought this what we voted against??
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-08/prominent-republicans-begin-push-to-tax-carbon-cut-regulations
Edit:
I thought that this is what we voted against?
At least this is now out in the open.
J. Philip, My viewpoint is that the elite and rinos are still fighting Trump.
Maybe not note that these Republicans are in fact not part of the Administration, but a group of lobbyists that are trying to push a pet policy.
I wonder how many palms had to be greased just to get an audience.
Lobbying is to be expected.
michael
Ecofiscal Commission Canada
A private Canadian think tank launched in November 2014 that advocates for carbon taxes.
Advisory Board includes:
Jean Charest, former premier of Quebec
Jack Mintz, also on the Board of Imperial Oil Canada which is majority owned by ExxonMobile and he is a tax policy expert.
https://ecofiscal.ca/the-commission/the-people-behind-the-commission
Montreal Gazette, Jan.1, 2013
‘Environment cap-and-trade regulations in force’
“The idea was pushed by former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and former premier Jean Charest, within the Western Climate Initiative …”
http://www.montrealgazette.com/technology/Environment+trade+regulations+force/7762705.html
Most bad weather will not increase like climate activists claim. Tornadoes are not getting worse. Most storms other than tropical cyclones depend on horizontal temperature gradient, and their winds will weaken as the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the world. And it is not getting cloudier (a possibility mentioned above and not by climate activists) – clouds are getting more efficient instead due to increase of water vapor. Winds would slow only slightly – most wind varies with the square root of pressure gradient, and it seems most pressure gradients would vary roughly with the temperature gradients that cause them. With warming falling short of forecast by the CMIP5 models, I think there is not a lot to worry about. and Dr. Roger Pielke Jr is ong the “97% consensus” and he points out that nationwide and worldwide, floods are not worsening much and drought is not worsening.
259 people have died from „climate“-related disasters (storms, floods, etc. – not avalanches) in Switzerland from 1946–72 = 9.6 per year. From 1973-2015 129 people died = only 3 per year, although the population had nearly doubled.
The facts prove the alarmists/profiteers and government propaganda wrong.
South Austrailia was warned that thier rush to renewables would destabilize the system and increase rates. Both have happened as predicted. The state government wants to blame everyone but themselves and is saying they may nationalise power generation.
So lets see if we understand this… you ignored the warnings, results are bad, solution is more control for you. Unbelievable really.
That does sound like government though, doesn’t it?
Very little press coverage of Ontario, Germany, South Austrailia results from going to wind and solar. That is unfortunate as these power sources can be thought of asbfree to the uneducated. Wouldnt many Americans be surprised to know the reality.
It’s very difficult to get anything negative published in Ontario about renewable energy.
Aaah! But the climate is NOT going to change! We’re going to STOP it from changing. We are to going to STOP rising sea levels.
(Just give us more money!)
The last 10 weeks here in BC I have followed the weather as usual with our 2x a day obs. Checking and comparing it to the last few years we have seen at this time just a cold spell , which I would call weather for now..
We saw similar winters in 1971-72, 1985-86 and others. Nothing to get our knickers in a wad about.
But frankly I worry more about a prolonged cold period then I do a warm one. The region we live in is made up of small micro climates between 2 mountain ranges with a series of lakes that keep it warmer during winter and cooler during summer but even a few short miles away from the lake temps can vary by 6-8 C. higher or lower than ours by the lakes.
There is very little possibility for wind and limited for solar, if there is any “Clean” energy I would think geothermal could help but even that needs a power source to run. In my view fossil fuels are here to stay and for a very long time to come! Get used to it.
“Renewables” i.e. “Clean Energy” are just a two-tier Ponzi Scheme! First tier is to get Federal/State taxpayer money to subsidize the real costs and loses. Second tier is to get public investors to throw money at the scheme, a.k.a. Elon Musk Industries.
“Imagine for a moment ….”
If Eric W stopped being stupid. And most of the rest of you too! Journalist say all manner of things. Just because it is on the internet, does not make it true. If fact I find very little good reporting on electric power issues.
Before getting all bent out of shape about something, maybe you should research it more. Commenting on things you are ignorant about, is stupid.
In the US, utility scale power projects are designed for expected weather conditions. AGW would not change weather significantly during the life of the project.
Providing power is a public service. The industry has an obligation to produce power the way our customers want. While I may not think wind and solar is a very good way to produce power, that is not my decision.
During the licensing process, public input is requested. If you can show a substantive reason, a power project is stopped.
At this rate Kit you’re going to hurt my feelings…
But you haven’t provided a substantive response. Why not?
Why would anyone respond to a village idiot. !!
They are there to entertain.. but Rip is FAILING badly.
Just throw them a crust of mouldy bread, and walk away.. Well done Eric.
“The power industry has an OBLIGATION to produce power…….. ”
So why would any power industry business EVER use wind or solar.
They know that they can NEVER meet their obligation 24/7
@Andy
With more than 40 years in the power industry, I can answer that question. The amount of time I have on back shift develops an intolerance for stupid people like Andy and Eric. We in the power industry have never had a problem providing power 24/7/365 except when the politicians take away our ability to do it.
I can think of few cases where utilities have built wind and solar unless obligated by law. In which, the cost is just passed on.
Andy and Eric make up stuff, I know they are lying.
Retired, you’re free to go find your
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-gNlXOaZlkmE/UT0DbyHaskI/AAAAAAAAAAw/Z7uZeVFG5BU/s1600/3+monkeys+3.jpg
blog.
90,000 consumers cut off in South Australia due to relying on fickle windmills and the need for demand management to avoid another cascading State blackout-
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/sa-power-crisis-will-there-be-more-blackouts/news-story/82f848efbc42455b9d7c4e1487b04fa5
So what is Premier Weatherill and Co’s response?
“Amid concern over the continuing blackouts, Premier Jay Weatherill today foreshadowed “dramatic plans” for the state to step away from the national electricity grid “and take control of our own future”.
Mr Weatherill would not provide full details of the plans today, other than to say that they had been long in the planning and were likely to be finalised and announced imminently.
He did indicate that a contract for a bulk-buy of State Government electricity, for which tenders have been received, was likely to lead to the creation of a new gas-fired power station.”
What? Not more precious Green windmills and solar panels Premier?
Meanwhile-
“THE Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) has ordered the second power generation unit at Pelican Point be switched on to avoid a repeat of Wednesday night’s enforced electricity black out.” [that means paying them whatever they want to do that folks]
What? Not the Green windmills and solar panels?
Welcome to their Green religion and the lesson for you all.
Totally unrelated you understand, but my spies tell me a particular Australian State Premier has been looking around for a suitable retirement chalet or some such in France. Might pay to up the offer with the RE agent if the vendor is playing hardball.
Well you know how it is with all the pressures of the job and you look forward to retirement away from it all at some stage-
http://www.mikerann.net/biography/
Watching Jay Weatherill on the news just now , posturing and trying pretend he is action man and is going to nationalise (State-is?) the SA grid. He wants SA voters to believe that external parties are doing things to them, rather than him making a long string of ill informed ideological decisions that have consequences. He is quite a bizarre politician.
The tone of hysterical media about the current heatwave is interesting. Not sure if this is part of the ramping up of climate rhetoric as the house of cards gets shakier or its just a bunch of cub reporters who cant remember the last hot spell. Terms like scorcher, hell, furnace get bandied about with awe struck reports that its 40C+ in various places. Jeez people its bloody Australia in summer!! yes it gets extra hot sometimes.
Never mind unstable climate conditions – what if a big old volcano erupts and darkens the skies for two years? Then you will be able to pick up a 2nd hand solar installation for cheap 🙂
not really a problem…
See point 3 here:
https://www.solarpaneltalk.com/forum/solar/the-pros-and-cons-of-solar-energy/320799-volcanic-activity-its-risk-for-solar-energy-and-possible-mitigations
Yes Griff, the science is settled respectively:
“Volcanic activity: its risk for solar energy, and possible mitigations
This topic is closed.”
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DanKegel
DanKegel
Solar Fanatic
Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1903
#1
Volcanic activity: its risk for solar energy, and possible mitigations
06-21-2016, 06:23 PM
A forum member was concerned about two ways volcanic eruptions could reduce output from solar panels: ash settling directly on them, and haze high in the atmosphere.
So I dug around for some science on the topic. Here’s what I came up with; corrections welcome.”
Griff is correct in this case. PV does not work in general. PV systems designed for 20% capacity factor but only get 5% cf, might now get 4%.
I’m surprised that no one has mentioned the patently obvious future energy source : molten salt nuclear reactors. Everyone and his brother, it seems are developing their own in-house design :
Moltex Energy, Terrestrial Energy, Transatomic Power, and the entire Chinese govt. For the commenter who claimed that nuclear power requires massive amounts of concrete, I will correct them about the new nuclear reactors, which operate without any significant pressure on the nuclear side of the plant in the reactor core and therefore do NOT require much in the way of concrete or site preparation. All this translates into a very cheap to build plant – less than $2 per watt, which is cheaper than the coal plants (at over $3 per watt) or nuclear plants (at over $6 per watt) or natural gas plants. These reactors are intrinsically safe and work very well burning up our nuclear wastes (or low grade uranium or Thorium) – cost of fuel is inconsequential, since they can extract over 80% of the energy in uranium (versus 2 to 3 % for current water nuclear reactors) – we will NEVER run out of Uranium – the sea is full of the stuff , which can be extracted at a price that still results in inconsequential fuel costs. Our current supply of nuclear wastes contain enough molten salt extractable energy to power this country for 1000 years. These reactors produce the cheapest power of any technology. Period.
Molten salt reactors do not have to be shut down for refueling, can load follow (act as mid range generators) , are intrinsically , walk-away safe – core meltdowns are physically impossible, as are blasts of radiation to the environment. An old technology (several experimental molten salt reactors were operated for years) that was never practical because of several factors concerning corrosian resistance and moderating inefficiency, both of which have been overcome in all of the current designs. Can be built in any size and located practically anywhere, as in close to the end-user (within cities).
Promising technology… but 15 or more years from a pilot, even if you take an optimistic view
There’s only one real problem with wind and solar – cronyism.
They are both energy production systems, wtf is wrong with that?
Where it all unravels is that RE has been mandated by Government, there is effectively only one buyer in the market. That buyer has unequivocally committed itself and even before they form any sort of official cartel, the sellers milk the (fat cow) buyer.
Now *there* is your problem, simple, basic greed. Nothing to do with the weather and never really was.
btw, what’s today’s Climate?
Hint: I want the 30 year average that’s being maintained so we know how its changing and no, temperature is not it.
It *has* changed coz its snowing here today and wasn’t yesterday. 😀
Hmm…
Have you ever looked at fossil fuel contributions to US political parties, candidates, lobbyists and think tanks?
The problem with unreliables is this: the more unreliables you have, the higher the cost of energy. And the higher the cost of energy, the more it costs to produce unreliables (as main cost is energy in steel). And of course – unreliables don’t last for ever .. indeed they very quickly break down.So the cost of energy increases. The cost of maintaining the fleet of bird/bat mincers increases and therefore the cost of making & repairing unreliables increases, so the cost of energy further increases.
I’m yet to be convinced this is not a death spiral whereby the cost of energy eventually approaches infinity.
Or to turn it around: you start with a finite amount of energy in the system, but if more energy goes into making and repairing unreliables than comes out …. the “energy potential stored” in the system starts from a high, and just gets lower and lower and lower until no money on earth can buy energy from unreliables.
No doubt solar power will become viable sooner or later (wind — never), but only if it does not attempt to generate electricity directly, but some non flammable, nether explosive nor toxic, but energy rich chemical like sugar, store it locally and use it in fuel cells to generate electricity on demand. The technology is not there though, not even close.
It already is in Australia, Chile and other places with high insolation… India for example is seeing continual decrease on already low quotes for large solar power projects
I did not know there is high insolation at night at those far away places. In that case it is wonderful, let the market prevail with no subsidies at all. Otherwise…
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/17/nobody-expects-the-spanish-solar-inquisition/
This is a handy round up of studies on extreme (climate changed) wether and power supplies.
It notes ‘conventional’ power plant is affected also and that the impact to wind and solar is limited.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/how-vulnerable-is-the-energy-sector-to-extreme-weather
“Carbonbrief”? Ye gods! Talk about corrupt…
How much do you get paid for plugging that swampful of EUSSR liars?
And then you witter about the Koch Brothers…
Have you apologised to Dr. Crockford for lying about her professional qualifications yet, you unpleasant little ‘Unreliables’ propagandist?
It’s the disconnect between thinking that solar furnaces that roast birds etc and windmills which chop them up are somehow environmentally friendly.
It’s always puzzled me that the Fukushima Daiichi incident is always portrayed as a nuclear plant failure rather than as the result of a natural occurrence that the plants builders hadn’t allowed for and the German reaction has baffled me I’ve never heard of any tsunami in that country apart from that caused by the Dambusters.
James Bull
@James Baldwin >It’s always puzzled me that the Fukushima Daiichi incident is always portrayed as a nuclear plant failure <
That is because its a nuclear plant failure. I was built at the wrong place, and the redundant diesel engines were unprotected against tsunamis. And then they exploded. Unlike a windmill or coal plant or else would have done. And it contaminated the surrounding landscape so the inhabitants are banned from coming back to their properties! And it continues to contaminate the Pacific Ocean, so u can measure the radiation already at the west coast of the USA.
Most windmills are Chinese make. I’ve had three toasters and a couple of their kettles give up the ghost in the past half dozen yrs and I recall it taking Japan about 20yrs to get the hang of making things that work. We had a Canadian made toaster when I was a kid that had been going for about 40yrs without a hitch. It was given to a neighbor and it may still be working somewhere. It had drop-down sides for flipping the toast over to do the other sides.
I reckon we still have 10yrs more of tufting the earth with these things until the global warming industry grinds to a halt. We should set aside some small parks of dead wind mills, maybe with facsimilies of dead bats and birds lying around as a reminder of how we almost undid 3500yrs of civilization and nearly knocked off the USA as the last world economic engine. Maybe we could order the UN to dedicate these heritage sites for their historic and cultural value.
I thought those Google Engineers already told us that renewables can’t work. We’d be caught in an endless cycle of having to produce more and more renewables just to support the ones we had already just built?
“Thorium reactors are NOT fuelled by thorium. Thorium is NOT fissile. Thorium had to be irradiated with neutrons to produce, finally, uranium 233, the fissile material. This was being worked on in the 50s, I was part of a ream separating 2.5 kilos of uranium from ten tonnes of thorium, after years spent in-pile. Such a reactor system will not grow rapidly. The fuel has to be MADE from thorium, and this can only done in the reactor. Yes, it can be done, but it is still a URANIUM fuelled reactor!!!
Semantics. That’s tantamount to saying a coal powered unit is a steam fuelled generator!
SteveT