The wind speeds forecast would be Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, possibly Cat 5.
The National Weather Service in Reno issued their forecast discussion today for California’s Sierra Nevada, and the forecast of 150 mile per hour plus winds is confirmed, along with 4-8 feet of snow at high elevations:
FXUS65 KREV 092315
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
315 PM PST Mon Jan 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS…
The weather will remain unsettled through at least Wednesday. These
storms are colder with lower snow levels lessening the flood
threat. However, downstream areas will continue to be susceptible
to flooding through Tuesday afternoon. Aside from the flooding,
heavy Sierra snowfall with periods of rain and snow will continue
into Western Nevada. High winds are also possible Tuesday. Drier
weather is expected late week into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM…
Attention shifts to incoming winter storms over the next couple
days with the biggest impact being heavy snow and blowing snow in
the Sierra. Flooding concern is diminishing today, although there
are still some impacts and concerns for downstream locations
through Tuesday, including east of Sparks on the Truckee River,
the Carson River, and the Middle Fork Feather River near Portola.
A Flood Advisory remains in effect for much of northeastern CA and
western NV as flood waters have been slow to drain from lowland
areas around the Truckee Meadows, Sierra Valley, Carson Valley,
and portions of Lassen County. A few locations still remain
covered by flood waters, including Highway 395 near Johnson Lane
where the Carson River is coming out of it`s banks.
Precipitation is increasing in the Sierra ahead of our next
winter storm that is moving in tonight through Wednesday. Some
convection is developing on the western slopes of the Sierra this
afternoon and will carry over into the eastern Sierra/Tahoe Basin
and even into the lower valley of northeastern CA and western NV
tonight.
We have issued a winter weather advisory for Surprise Valley and
Northern Washoe Counties as high resolution models are showing a
strong potential for several inches of snow tonight for areas north
of Pyramid Lake. Earlier this morning, the high-res models were
showing the potential for a quick 1-2 inches of snow around the
Reno-Carson City-Minden, but have since backed off on this
potential. We still have the mention in the forecast for light snow
around Reno- Carson, but forecaster confidence is rather low. Snow
levels will then rise Tuesday afternoon, possibly rising as high
as 6000-7000 feet north to south before crashing back to the
valley floors by Wednesday morning.
The atmosphere becomes more stable Tuesday morning, with increasing
winds across the region. 700mb flow increases to around 60-70kts,
with very strong winds likely along the Sierra Front Tuesday
afternoon and evening. High winds with gusts up to 65 mph are
likely Tuesday for the Sierra Front areas from Mono County north
to the Oregon border. Wind prone areas, especially those along
US-395 will see gusts up to 80 mph at times. For the Sierra
ridges, we could see winds exceeding 150 mph at times Tuesday. We
have upgraded to a High Wind Warning for the Sierra Front areas.
We may need to issue a wind advisory for Pershing and Churchill
Counties as well, but for now we have their winds just below
advisory.
By Tuesday evening, the front pushes into the region, with heavier
snow in the Sierra and precipitation spilling over into the
valleys of northeast CA and western NV. By Wednesday, we could see
up to 4 to 8 feet of snow in the high Sierra above 7000 feet, with
2 to 5 feet around the Lake Tahoe Basin and around Mammoth Lakes.
Blizzard conditions will occur over the passes and ridges Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Blizzard conditions may also be widespread in
the lower elevations for the Tahoe Basin and 395 corridor in Mono
County Tuesday afternoon and evening.
Snow levels will be coming back down to around 4500-5000 feet
Wednesday morning, with a slight potential for accumulating snow
on the valley floors by early Wednesday morning, although this may
end up mixed with rain. Snow will taper off on Wednesday
afternoon, with light snow continuing in the Sierra through
Thursday morning. There is some uncertainty in another shortwave
for Thursday that may bring additional snowfall to the Sierra.
Hoon
Source: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=REV&issuedby=REV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
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I don’t know where the 150 mph comes from. The most I’m seeing from the hires models is maybe 100 mph.
maybe union pacific will need to run the rotaries over donner pass area.
sweet, will be rail videographers watching for this I expect.
To all you Californians, please don’t eat each other until it’s absolutely necessary.
Yes! Mentioned to my wife earlier today it would be a great week to visit Donner Memorial State Park again. We could get a taste (no pun intended) of the weather conditions the Donner Party faced.
LOL good point
although a rotary would tear the meat up..
The YTD Water year at this time (October 1st,2013-September 30th, 2014) in January 9th, 2014 the rain total was a extremely dry 0.53″ of rain! Now my YTD water year rainfall total is 8.81″! That is a 1662% increase!
And in three more years, say to 2020, the same RATE OF INCREASE will give about 130 inches. London is pretty dry – at ~23-26 inches/year.
And by 2026 – eight more doublings – some half a mile of rain.
Wouldn’t want to be there in 2032 – a hundred miles deep of rain – Grandchild Moonbeam is going to have to open those sluices a million percent! Or more.
But SoCal will still be in drought.
Who’s your Noah?
Or am I, perhaps, extrapolating like a true-believing watermelon???
Auto – not too bad at multiplying by two.
But can you believe it?
Mods – a rhetorical Question.
Thanks!
Of course the alrmist wil blame the increase in storms in California on global warming.
Cancel Peak Water.
The west is wet!
Snow Water Equivalents (inches) couple days ago -Percent of normal for this date (%) 126
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdeca…
California Data Exchange Center – Reservoirs- most well above average fot his date
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cdeca…
Lake Mead and Lake Powell are getting recharged as well.
. http://lakepowell.water-data.com/LP_Rivers.php
Rivers feeding Lake Powell are running at 151.46% of the Jan 10th avg. Click for Details
Upper Colorado River Basin
SNOTEL Snow/Precipitation Update Report
https://wcc.sc.egov.usda.gov/reports/UpdateReport.html?report=Upper+Colorado+River+Basin
Snow water Eq. 158% of median
Water year to date precip. 164% of average
As of this morning, El Dorado County seasonal precipitation is at 190% of normal.
Should have added: “to date”.
Now it’s 204% and it’s still raining heavy.
70 kts! these storms are not Natural. Someone panicked now that Trump will be President and are doing all they can to fill up the dams with water.
Now it’s a Storm that’s out of control.
Even here in the Bay Area, winds on our ridges above 1.5K are prog’ed to hit 60 – 70 MPH.
This series of storms is pumping a lot of snow into the mountains. Crusty Butt, er Crested Butte ski area had to close earlier today due to too much snow. There was an avalanche on I-70 at Vail pass overnight trapping a semi.
Does anybody know where Al Gore is? Is California seeing the “Gore Effect”?
Naughty!
Auto
I’m sure he is in some distant sunny place.
Reno, Nevada, perchance?
Auto
Someone needs to get a picture of all that snow because kids aren’t supposed to know what it is by now .
How’s the Al Gore ice free Arctic doing ? Polar bears apparently didn’t get the memo and are flourishing .
That must be so disappointing to the scary global warming promoters .
Oh well, time for a new mascot to sell global cooling .
These folks are collecting photos, and publishing a few:
http://southtahoenow.com/categories/news
The latest NOAA blizzard and winter storm warnings mention up to 10 feet in higher elevations, 5 to 7 feet at Tahoe lake level, and snow levels down to 4500 feet overnight, dropping to 3000 feet by Thursday morning. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
I really enjoy the internet, it doesn’t forget: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/14/science/californias-history-of-drought-repeats.html?_r=0 NYT, what a kick!!
From the NYT link:
“But scientists say that in the more ancient past, California and the Southwest occasionally had even worse droughts — so-called megadroughts — that lasted decades. At least in parts of California, in two cases in the last 1,200 years, these dry spells lingered for up to two centuries.
The new normal, scientists say, may in fact be an old one.”
I’ll have to go apologize to my SUV. I just told her the other day that the drought in CA was her fault, still young at 8 years old — and she’s never been to CA. I hope she forgives me.
Last time there was thundersnow in my part of the UK in 2002. I was driving to a family get together and it was my job to pick up the food on the way. The only problem was that the snow was falling so heavily that you could only see with the wipers on double speed and even then it was touch and go. I was the only person who made to my sisters house and there was 4 people and $150 of Chinese food that I had brought with me.
The Tahoe Basin went from 146% normal (for date) SWE to 186% overnight. The Sierra just north of Tahoe (and west of Reno) went from 165% to 200% overnight. I watched the radar last night and Tahoe got hammered continuously with snow, and I-80 from the NV state line over Donner Pass was closed completely by 5:00 pm, for the night.
Squaw Valley USA (NW of Tahoe) had already received 27 fresh inches at 8000 feet by Monday morning (from the tail end of the previous named storm “Iras”). But, looking for a report this morning, every ski resort around Tahoe is CLOSED (for high winds and/or avalanche danger, and probably for digging out) except Heavenly (S. Tahoe) which reports 4 feet fresh snow this morning. I don’t recall ever seeing practically the entire Tahoe ski industry shut down at once, and I’ve lived here for 45 years.
As of 06:00 this morning, Squaw Valley USA received 73 inches new snowfall in the last 72 hours. And Kirkwood ski area considerably more. By tomorrow morning, with the current storm in progress, it could be 100 inches in 4 days. Not a bad recovery from the melt-off we had last weekend.
Jeez what you people doing up North? Forgetting to exhale?-
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/photos/photos-of-the-extreme-winter-weather-that-is-gripping-much-of-europe/ss-BBy8zmd?
Always remember- breathe in breathe out, breathe in breathe out and eat more beans…
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/technology/eastern-australian-will-be-hit-by-a-heatwave-that-could-last-up-to-a-week-say-forecasters/news-story/4ce7d25174a644b4975ce147a1f2bb31
According to Accuweather, the Tahoe Basin proper got up to 8 feet of snow on 10 and 11 January. I believe there was a significant “lake effect” particularly on the lee side of the lake itself.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/trending-now/the-snow-struggle-is-real-in-lake-tahoe/5279384393001
v’