Guest essay by Eric Worrall
The New York Times has taken the unusual step of publishing something factual about the relative risks of cold and hot weather.
Beware: Winter Is Coming
By JANE E. BRODY DEC. 19, 2016
Most of the Northern Hemisphere is now in the throes of the deadliest time of the year. Cold kills, and I don’t mean just extreme cold and crippling blizzards. I mean ordinary winter cold, like that typically experienced, chronically or episodically, by people in every state but Hawaii from late fall through early spring.
While casualties resulting from heat waves receive wide publicity, deaths from bouts of extreme cold rarely do, and those resulting from ordinary winter weather warrant virtually no attention. Yet an international study covering 384 locations in 13 countries, including the United States, found that cold weather is responsible, directly or indirectly, for 17 times as many deaths as hot weather.
Over time, as global temperatures rise, milder winter temperatures are likely to result in fewer cold-related deaths, a benefit that could outweigh a smaller rise in heat-caused mortality. In winter in the United States, mortality is generally 10 percent to 15 percent higher than on typical summer days.
The study, published in July 2015 in The Lancet, was based on an analysis of more than 74 million deaths and calculated mortality attributable to heat and cold in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, Britain and the United States.
…
Furthermore, unlike what you might expect, the overwhelming majority of cold-weather casualties do not result from vehicular accidents, falls on ice or snow-related activities. Rather, they are attributable to leading killers like heart disease, stroke and respiratory disease, and are especially common among those aged 75 and older.
…
Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/19/well/beware-winter-is-coming.html
The 2015 Lancet Study is even clearer about what kind of weather causes excess deaths;
Discussion
Our findings show that temperature is responsible for advancing a substantial fraction of deaths, corresponding to 7·71% of mortality in the selected countries within the study period. Most of this mortality burden was caused by days colder than the optimum temperature (7·29%), compared with days warmer than the optimum temperature (0·42%). Furthermore, most deaths were caused by exposure to moderately hot and cold temperatures, and the contribution of extreme days was comparatively low, despite increased RRs. The study was based on the largest dataset ever collected to assess temperature–health associations, and included more than 74 million deaths from 13 countries (panel). The analysis of data from 384 locations provides evidence for temperature-related mortality risk in a wide range of climates and populations with different demographic, socioeconomic, and infrastructural characteristics. A strength of the study was the application of new, flexible statistical models to characterise the temperature- mortality association and pool estimates across locations. In particular, while previous studies relied on simplification of the exposure-response or lag structure, the approach we used here enabled us to estimate and pool non-linear and delayed dependencies and to identify the temperature of minimum mortality.
…
We identified a substantial effect of heat and cold on mortality, with attributable figures that varied by country. The optimum temperature at which the risk is lowest was well above the median, and seemed to be increased in cold regions. Cold was responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than was heat, while moderate hot and cold temperatures represented most of the total health burden.
…
Our study also provides a platform to improve and extend predictions of the effects of climate change; our findings emphasise how a comprehensive assessment is needed to provide an appropriate estimate of the health consequences of various climate-change scenarios.
Read more: http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(14)62114-0.pdf
Looking at the graphs on page 371 of the Lancet Study, the optimum temperature varies significantly between different countries, but in all cases it is warm – around 25c (77F), warmer in countries which are used to hot weather.
While The Lancet stopped short of recommending more global warming, the message is pretty clear. A warmer world is a safer world for humans, especially older humans.
People here are probably aware of this, but just in case, this is an excellent book
http://www.moralcaseforfossilfuels.com/
I think Napoleon discovered this 200 years ago when his army invaded Russia.
Hitler most certainly didn’t learn the lessons that Napoleon should have made obvious. It seems the nature of man is to believe that they are superior to those that came before them. The antidotes for this natural tendency is a family structure that includes more than just the previous generation, and learning real history. Both of those are ever more lacking in our modern societies and thus we produce ever more arrogant and, in those respects, ignorant generations.
But when your “save the planet” Green “sustainable lie” intent is to depopulate the human species, well then… your means are justified as a noble cause.
Lots of juvenile anchovies off Peru = strong upwelling = La Nina = big coldy-coldy
https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2016/12/29/ending-peru-anchovy-fishing-now-would-lose-sector-900m/?utm_source=Undercurrent+News+Alerts&utm_campaign=bb9754ac2d-Fisheries_roundup_Jan_02_2017&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_feb55e2e23-bb9754ac2d-92440397
Here’s proof that it’s extremely dangerous to play golf when its too cold:
How come I could see that coming a mile away?
Bah! amateur meet the proffesional.
This guy just doesn’t believe in hypothermia. He must be some sort of den!er…
The answer to his immunity was shown at the end. VODKA!
wws
beautiful
@diggs The watermelons already tried that ploy in the 70’s. The reason I started reading
about climate was that my daughter came home from elementary school saying
that we must stop using hydrocarbons or the resulting CO2 would push us into the
next ice age.
My 1st grade daughter came home from school and at the dinner table said “You know what? We are running out of air.” Teacher is going to get an earful at the next conference.
Eric ==-> This is the same Jane Brody NY Times article that I covered here at WUWT in this essay: “Surprising Results From Study: Moderate Cold Kills More People Than Extreme Heat” on 20 Dec 2016. Is there some kind of Twilight Zone time warp thing going on here?
We used to have a saying in Sweden “If you make it through February, you will live another year.”
This was of course before central heating
The NYT may or may not be starting to change their position on climate change but as the change of regime in Washington approaches there will be those decide to switch sides, out of pure self-interest. People who will do this are the modern-day vicars of Bray – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Vicar_of_Bray – and could be many.
The Fortune 1000 will not be changing sides.
It’s called a PR move, Chris, designed to placate the masses.
Apple claims that 93% of their energy comes from renewable resources. This makes their customers feel better and helps them overlook the fact that the iPhone they purchased was manufactured in a Chinese sweatshop that installed nets underneath its window to cut down on worker suicides.
Fortune 1000 maybe not – but the scientific community?
Meanwhile, here on the sunny, warm southwest coast of Florida, I just came in from power washing some stone borders. Even with shorts and a tank top, still sweated but it was a good sweat. Now to relax with some cold green tea, a nice tuna on rye and catch up on today’s football games. How you’all doin up North?
Go south
South is better…
Unless you are in the Southern Hemisphere
Go greater than I 30 I latitude
Ok?
-50 latitude is too far south..
Oh dear
I meant smaller than I 30 I
….
24 F and snowing in S.E. Washington State.
Grr. As you can see above, we are slipping on ice, crashing our motor vehicles into buses and police cars, shoveling snow until we have a heart attack, and hoping we make it through February because that means we’ll make it for the rest of the trip around the Sun.
And if a big snowball out of the sky lands in your dog’s water dish (splashing all over your sliding glass door) that was me. 🙂
Seriously, HAPPY NEW YEAR, Tom. Glad you are doing so well. Enjoy!
And a Happy New Year to you Janice and thanks for your hard work. But. I have a cat not a dog and my sliding glass doors are open, the weather is just too nice.
“…the optimum temperature varies significantly between different countries, but in all cases it is warm – around 25c (77F), warmer in countries which are used to hot weather.”
Add to that the thermal neutral point for humans is about 82F. Living in an ice age for 2.6 million years and we have not evolved in response. Think Hawaii and the tropics. To live elsewhere we must have technology.
If it weren’t for the Warmist idiocy, the fact that cold weather is more lethal than hot would as obvious as saying “water is wet”. But beyond that, they miss a more important, and far more obvious point: that it is our economic power which gives us the ability to withstand the elements. And it is in fact economic power which Warmunists have been striving to deprive mankind, by making energy far more expensive, and less available than it needs to be.
+1
Bruce,
Well put!,
Also if it is getting warmer as claimed, wouldn’t it be good that we need less fossil energy to keep warm, reducing CO 2 emissions?
If facts revealed in this study are true, the US EPA’s Endangerment Findings are bunkum.
It either gets significantly warmer with increasing carbon dioxide concentration of the atmosphere or not.
If it does not get warmer, because computational climate model projections are gravely exaggerated, it is obviously bunkum.
On the other hand, if it does get warmer, according to this study, much more lives are saved than threatened, so there is no endangerment whatsoever, quite the opposite, consequently it is even more bunkum.
Therefore the Endangerment Findings are bunkum, unconditionally, and carbon dioxide in ambient concentrations can’t possibly be considered a pollutant under the Clean Air Act.
Q.E.D.
Which is why the base load should be produced by a technology independent of the environment. Not technologies that literally follow the prevailing winds, which are suitable as supplements in specific contexts.
It’s just another seasonal story for seasonal thinkers, from seasonal thought manipulators. Tis the season.
The IPCC AR5 says warming up to 1.8C is generally beneficial. One of the few sensible things they’ve come up with, and that’s the one we’re supposed to ignore?
Unfortunately, CO2 shows no sign it can achieve anything like that.
Joe Bastardi stated in the weekend update that western Europe better get ready for lots of snow coming soon. If he’s right, the use of wind and solar become frot with complications. Lots of diesel fuel and gas will be needed for de-icing and back-up power.
When the New York Times takes the unusual (for them) step of publishing something factual about the climate, it tells us that they are sniffing some change in the wind. When we see the Grauniad following the same path, the change will be assured around the World.
From the Lancet study:
From their description, they’ve used a fancied up pig’s ear of smashing correlation combined with assumed deaths.
The Postmaster who hired me to do collection had a habit of being outside when the collection truck would buzz through emptying mailboxes.
During a multiple inch snowstorm, I performed the collection run and waved to my Postmaster when I emptied the mailbox near his house. He was out shoveling snow, by himself in a thick snowstorm in a quiet neighborhood.
Forty-five minutes later, I arrived back at the Post Office and learned our Postmaster had just been found face down in the snow. As I remember it, he was 58
.
His actual cause of death was heart attack.
This study statistically skews data while assuming all deaths, or all deaths of certain causes, are due to warm or cold. Brainless actions are not considered.
People who live in the hot latitudes learn to avoid or deal with excess heat.
Heat stroke, like sunburn tends to favor the inexperienced and unprepared; as does hypothermia and cold exposure.
I read an old article about rock collectors driving near Tonopah Nevada during the 1930s heat waves with temps over 100°F, (37.8°C)when they spotted a truck on the side of the road with a pair of feet sticking out underneath.
The driver and rider griped about another visitor to the desert getting overwhelmed by the heat.
So, they pulled over to the side of the road to see if they could still help the person underneath the truck. They reached down, each grabbing a foot and dragged the poor guy out from under his truck.
The man they pulled out from under the truck was quite alive, holding a sandwich and trying to yell through a mouthful of sandwich.
The two rock collectors apologized and told the man they had feared the worst.
The guy from under the truck accepted their apologies and suggested the rock collectors get their lunches and join him under the truck for lunch.
The truck bed was high enough to lay under and eat comfortably while providing the densest shade around with enough room for a breeze.
Under the truck was far cooler than trying to sit in the truck’s cab or even the car seats. In those days, there was very little insulation in the ceilings of cars.
The truck driver told them that he would often nap after lunch while the heat of the day passed, siesta if you will.
As dear sweet fragile Janice points out; another waste of money study alleging things, but finding very little new.
(That was mean of me Janice. 🙂 )
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-GcgrIcfmzUI/TeVlUp4LwtI/AAAAAAAAAHw/DzyTLzutWbQ/s1600/tea-party.jpg
Janice: “That’s okay, Theo. I understand……….
Now, Aphan, this is your cup of boiling water…..
Shhh.
The troll is walking up the sidewalk. I can hear the squish of its brains……..
Down, get down. We’ll hide under the table. When it starts to steal the cookies, dump your water on it!”
Both: (giggling — but, very, very quietly)
(being a little girl is the BEST! — and yes, J. Wonder Sammer, some of us have never grown up (and do not plan to))
♫ Thank Heaven, for little girls ♫
I couldn’t agree more, Janice. And a happy New Year to you.
Thanks, Luc! 🙂
Oops. And HAPPY NEW YEAR, to YOU!
Talk about a guilt inducing photograph…
I never understood the whole tea party thing; nor the repeated wedding ceremonies.
Three years younger than my older Sister pretty well guaranteed that I couldn’t outrun her or her friends until I reached approximately twelve years old. The following year, I outran my Father, which ended my twice a year fuzzy haircuts.
My Sister and her friends caught me often enough, that I believe I married every young girl in the neighborhood and in my Sister’s sphere of friends. Every one some form of a shotgun wedding.
It’s a good thing none of them had cleric’s license or Justice of the Peace stamp.
Not terribly odd that most of my family participated in some form of track, at least temporarily.
During “Red Dwarf’s” run, there was an episode where Kryten crashed a “Pride or Prejudice” virtual reality game where the rest of Red Dwarf’s crew were enjoying a tea party or garden party with the young ladies.
I cheered when Kryten used a flimsy looking German Panther tank and blasted the tea party set to “_ell and gone”.
*>———————-<*
For shame Janice!
You know trolls cannot walk. Walking generally requires biped or higher life forms for ambulation.
When the troll has squelched close enough and tries to steal a cookie, then comes the hot water!
Unless the cookies are dirt with rocks painted black and the brownies are will packed manure mix. Then let the troll have them all.
It does sound like griffiepoo doesn't like the warmist research published in the article.
Instead griffiepoo conflates their list of deaths as being from influenza.
Making the great Influenza Pandemic of 1918-1919 that from 50 million for 100 million people easily any alarmist claims that death from things warm is more severe.
griffiepoo trollop:
People live in every range of temperatures around the plane. They not only live in blistering hot temperatures, they function quite well in the hottest temperatures.
So long as they are sensible during the hottest periods.
Life in a brick row-home can be miserable during temperature inversions when heat waves peak without NOAA twiddling.
People who succumb, tend to be older people who refuse to cut back their activities nor do they keep up their necessary hydration when it is hot.
My Father, when younger, worked until he fainted in very hot temperatures (roof and attic work). He blamed it on his South Pacific stint in the Navy where he learned to work until one faints. The Navy is considerate, they prop the man upright in the shade while the Naval intern would stuff salt pills into the incoherent man and then dump a canteen of water down his throat.
When the hydration and salts (electrolytes) works the man would get a brief rest; too severe a heat stroke and he gets carried to a bunk or hammock and draped with wet towels.
Anyway, most people living I the row homes, especially brick homes would all be out on their front and back porches as soon as the sun nears the horizon. From 3-4PM into dark, the house is hotter than outside. It's a terrific time to visit with neighbors.
Without sufficient electrolytes or water, the body temperature regulating system breaks down, allowing the internal body temperature to climb. Above 104°F (40.5°C).
That Tonopah, Nevada area I mentioned above? Tonopah and surrounding area is quite near Death Valley. With temperatures averaging around 100°F (37.8°C) on flat surfaces; small canyons with dark rock walls easily reach above 110°F (43.3°C).
Hiking or just collecting rocks requires the buddy system for maximum safety during the heat of the day.
We carried a garden sprayer filled with plain water to keep our clothes damp. That was in addition to the forty gallons of potable water in the back of the truck and our canteens.
My Brother carried two spares for these trips. Flats are not uncommon. Shortly after fixing the flat tire one day, he got another flat inside of fifteen – twenty yards.
The second tire turned out to have a slow leak, requiring more than just changing tires.
We put two tires on the rood of the truck to boost the shade alongside of the vehicle. It also allowed the tire to heat up some.
We dug out a long put away and forgotten where tire patch kit.
Then we searched our preferred tire for possible cuts, taking turns on the tire pump till we found bubbles.
Mark the hole, put the tire in the sun and rest for awhile. Actually we rested and hydrated in between each activity.
When the tire was good and hot, we set up the patch kit; the drive a notched spike through the hole kind, lit the patch and waited till is was hot and gooey then jammed the spike through the tire hole.
Pumped some air into the tire, no leak! It took a long time to pump plenty of air into the tire.
Fun for the day was over. Two flat tires, one weak spare serving as one replacement, miles to get back out of the desert, carefully.
We were back the following weekend, with newer tires, but no cold front.
Within sight of the Altamont bird choppers is an area called 12 Palms. Twelve Palms is surrounded by old attempts to sell sun washed acreage as suburbia.
A lot of the people are still there, living in shacks and unfinished homes.
I do not recommend stopping and knocking on their doors.
Most natives in severely hot country understand the dangers and deal with them.
According to Noel Coward "Only mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun".
Perhaps better phrased as People who are spoiled by Urban nanny state living, need to take personal responsibility when challenging Mother Nature.
This nonsense again?
The study does not adequately distinguish between deaths caused directly by cols and deaths which occur in cold weather…
Which is important, because the internationally recorded ‘excess winter mortality’ figures are for the most part attributable to winter flu outbreaks.
This study just maps the impact of flu.
In addition, heatwaves do cause deaths: extreme heatwaves in Europe have definitely caused deaths and there is sadly every expectation these will increase. Plus there’s the effects of more frequent 40C plus temps in (e.g) the Middle East.
Oops! typo – for ‘cols’ read of course ‘cold’
Poor Griff, still trying to pretend it’s relevant.
First off, heat doesn’t kill. Heat waves do.
Heat waves are defined as an excursion above the average for an area. Even if the world were to warm up as much as you science deniers claim it will, heat waves themselves will be no more common than they are now.
Secondly, the reason why flu is more of a problem in the winter is first off, because people stay inside and around each other more. Secondly because cold has stressed their bodies making them more vulnerable.
“This nonsense again?”
So “The Lancet” is nonsense now is it, you poisonous little chancre?
You really are an utterly inhumane little troll, aren’t you? The poor, sick and elderly don’t matter a damn to you, do they? Eichmann would have loved you…
Gave you apologised to Dr. Crockford yet for personally insulting her and attempting to trash her professional reputation?
v’
Posted by Eric Worrall
Beware: Winter Is Coming
By JANE E. BRODY DEC. 19, 2016
Most of the Northern Hemisphere is now in the throes of the deadliest time of the year. Cold kills, and I don’t mean just extreme cold and crippling blizzards. I mean ordinary winter cold, like that typically experienced, chronically or episodically, by people in every state but Hawaii from late fall through early spring.
While casualties resulting from heat waves receive wide publicity, deaths from bouts of extreme cold rarely do, and those resulting from ordinary winter weather warrant virtually no attention. Yet an international study covering 384 locations in 13 countries, including the United States, found that cold weather is responsible, directly or indirectly, for 17 times as many deaths as hot weather.
Over time, as global temperatures rise, milder winter temperatures are likely to result in fewer cold-related deaths, a benefit that could outweigh a smaller rise in heat-caused mortality. In winter in the United States, mortality is generally 10 percent to 15 percent higher than on typical summer days.
_____________________________________________
Doesn’t include falling from rooftops or breaking the bones when freeing pavements from ice and snow;
nor accidents on roads, railways and airports – especially since the greens forbid use of salt and ethanol to free roads and airport runways.