What is Next for Weather and Climate?

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball

The Trump administration is well aware of the political use and scientific abuse of climate for a political agenda. I learned how aware while attending the Heritage Foundation Climate Conference on Thursday December 8 in Washington D.C. The majority of the public sense there is something wrong as reflected in their lack of concern measured in all polls. They will be very angry when the extent of the deception is explained to them, as will happen as the new administration lays out the foundation for their policies. The question is what happens going forward. We know those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Similarly, you cannot prevent all misuses of any system and trying to do so only makes it inefficient and even unworkable. Science must be central to whatever direction taken.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cannot survive. It was designed to achieve a deceptive result by limiting the research to only human causes of climate change. They effectively made reform or change impossible because each set of Reports is cumulative. That is, each Report simply adds new information to a very limited number of variables. The reality is you can only determine the human impact by knowing and understanding all the variables and mechanisms of natural climate. Most of the public think the IPCC look at climate and climate change in total and IPCC participants and promoters did nothing to dissuade them of that error. This is part of the proof that IPCC creators had a singular political objective for which natural variability was a problem. Without the political objective there is no need for a government agency like the IPCC even to determine natural climate and climate change.

Maurice Strong set up the IPCC through the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO). This organization is comprised of weather bureaucrats from every UN member nation. They created, controlled, and promoted the IPCC agenda so that politicians had no choice, as Strong intended. This, and President Obama’s use of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), are proof that bureaucracies must not have control going forward. Their role must be as passive collectors and disseminators of data. They should not be involved in research. This was a major part of the problem with the IPCC and weather office involvements. Scientific bureaucrats are automatically compromised by their career being subject to the whim and will of their political bosses. Skepticism, the very hallmark of science, is automatically stifled in such a hierarchical structure.

Global warming was chosen by those setting up the IPCC because they needed something they could claim was a global threat. It was a subset of Maurice Strong’s objective as Elaine Dewar determined after spending five days with him at the UN.

Strong was using the U.N. as a platform to sell a global environment crisis and the Global Governance Agenda.”

Strong and his allies created a global threat that they then used to argue could only be resolved by a world government. That is not necessary as long as all the data is available to everyone so that any group can deal with local, regional, hemispheric or global weather and climate. Smaller groups offset the paradox of the ability for a few people to dominate with bigger groups. Smaller groups also accommodate the fact that different regions have markedly different geography and climate so the concerns and needs are different.

These differences were exploited by the IPCC. For example, the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Report (ACIA) was prepared and controlled by a few people associated with Environment Canada (EC) who were able to present a very false picture. Despite this it became the definitive study for the entire section on Arctic climate in the IPCC Reports. People from other regions did not know about the errors or problems and so I was easily marginalized when I asked questions. The climate and problems of Australia are not the problems of Northern Canada. Indeed, they are not even the same for southern and northern Australia.

The WMO has a role to play and it was defined by Hubert Lamb as his reason for establishing the Climatic Research Unit (CRU).

“…it was clear that the first and greatest need was to establish the facts of the past record of the natural climate in times before any side effects of human activities could well be important.

The only role for WMO and all national weather offices is creation of a dense standardized grid of data collection stations including as many existing viable stations as possible. This should be integrated with the satellite data collection program. WMO will store the data and make it available at no charge to any person or group. This should include all proxy data, including everything from ice cores to tree rings to weather diaries. These agencies should only collect, store, and disseminate data. They should not do any research or forecasting. These are better left to the academic world or private enterprise as companies like Accuweather or individuals like Piers Corbyn demonstrate. It is hard to think of an area where successful results will more directly affect the viability of an enterprise than weather and climate forecasting. Indeed, a major part of the problem with government doing the job is it didn’t matter how often they were wrong there was no accountability or incentive to improve.

Besides taking the politics out of weather and climate science these changes will save money. The billions going to politically directed and useless climate change research will more than cover the data collection requirement.

It must begin with a campaign to offset the hysteria deliberately created by the founders and acolytes of the IPCC. This must be a joint campaign led by the US and any other like minded nation. At the Heritage Climate Conference one of the most effective speakers who understood the science and who confronted the challenge was Corbin Robinson Jr,, principal of Quintana Capital Group, from Texas. He said,

The coming climate science battle will also involve PowerPoints. Those who have doubts about whether humans are causing the planet to warm must develop bullet points of information easily digestible for public consumption to counteract the current climate science, the type that the average person can understand, …it was time for a broader outreach to counteract the notion that carbon dioxide from emissions was harming the planet. “I’m here with a call to action to you guys; it’s time to go on offense,” he said. “Develop a series of newspaper foldouts, develop a series of newspaper foldouts that explain CO2s, life on Earth and its beneficial effect on plant life. CO2 always was and always will be.”

This was the theme of my speech at the first Heartland Climate Conference in New York. It was also the major thrust of my involvement in establishing the Friends of Science in Calgary and the Galileo Movement in Australia. It is a challenge because the majority of the public, some 80 percent, are Arts students. I know what is needed after 25 years reaching a Science credit course for Arts students. I also know from giving hundreds of public lectures over 40 years, but especially from working with people in primary resource industries including forestry, fisheries and agriculture. The latter included writing a monthly column for Country Guide, the largest circulation Canadian farm magazine for 17 years and then an ongoing column for The Landowner since 2010. Hundreds of radio programs and most recently seven one hour Skype programs with Romanian TV. A producer contacted me after investigating the climate issue. He discovered that the Romanian people were only getting the IPCC view and he determined they should hear what they are not told.

I warned him that presenting this information was potentially dangerous. He said it was more important people know the all the science. My warning was because it is likely that my three lawsuits are related to my activities. Voltaire said

“It is dangerous to be right when people in authority are wrong.”

Many were unsure if the people in authority were finally right. Trump’s meetings with carbon footprint hypocrites Al Gore and Leonardo DiCaprio, seemed to signal something different. All this was put to rest with the appointment of Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute and Scott Pruitt as head of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Conversations and information gleaned at the Heritage Climate Conference on Thursday assures me accurate climate science is in charge. The challenge is to deprogram the people, remove the exploitive agencies and rules they created, and set up a system that is as free of politics as possible.

As with all my articles, nothing is cast in stone. It is my summary of what has gone on and what I think is required going forward. It is written in the context of what is needed, namely open forums at which all ideas are given voice. From that collective wisdom we are most likely to get the best answers. It is in the spirit of the final stage of the American Revolution in which the people have access to information through the Internet. They can bypass the mainstream media, who have always acted as propagandists for the elites, to let the leaders know what they think.

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Gregory
December 10, 2016 9:03 pm

Thank you Dr Ball.

ferdberple
Reply to  Gregory
December 11, 2016 7:00 am

These agencies should only collect, store, and disseminate data. They should not do any research or forecasting.
============
100% agree. Combining the two roles is as is done currently violates industry standard experimental and data quality controls. Humans cannot avoid subconscious bias except by proper design of data controls, which means first and foremost, separation of responsibilities.
We do this in business without question. Long experience shows that you need to separate the person handling the money from the person counting the money. The same logic applies to anything of value, including information. It is high time that science, government and academia did the same.
In business, if you cook the books you get put in jail. In government and academia you get promoted. It is high time the same rules applied to all.

Rolf
Reply to  ferdberple
December 11, 2016 8:40 am

Right!

Editor
Reply to  Gregory
December 11, 2016 8:20 am

+10

MRW
Reply to  Andy May
December 11, 2016 1:46 pm

Me too. +10, Dr. Ball.

TG
Reply to  Andy May
December 11, 2016 6:46 pm

Dr Ball.
I hope you can catch the ear of the Trump team, they will learn a lot from you.

Chimp
December 10, 2016 9:07 pm

IPCC can finally perform a useful service by saying, “Oops. Sorry!”, then folding up its tent silently to steal away into eternal ignominy.

Non Nomen
Reply to  Chimp
December 11, 2016 12:59 am

IPCC can finally perform a useful service by saying, “Oops. Sorry!”, then folding up its tent silently to steal away into eternal ignominy.

The IPCC ought to remain alive in the memories of science and the people as a bad example of how NOT to botch things and that manipulation and trickery doesn’t pay off.

Reply to  Non Nomen
December 11, 2016 7:36 am

Canadian professional engineers wear a steel ring on their right little finger to remind them of the1907 collapse of what was to be the World’s longest cantelevered bridge over the St Lawrence’s R. It fell when nearly completed killing a large number of workers. The rings were traditionally made from the bridge steel although I understand that today it is made from new steel. I fully recommend that new scientists have a similar solemn ceremony of some kind upon graduation. Any ideas?

Javert Chip
Reply to  Non Nomen
December 11, 2016 10:05 am

Yea – that they must pass a statistics class

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  Non Nomen
December 11, 2016 1:52 pm

…and that they realize that truth informs feelings – not the other way around.

Reply to  Non Nomen
December 11, 2016 9:54 pm

Gary Pearse – good comment. One minor issue – the ring is issued to graduates, who may or may not go on to become “Professional Engineers”.
I have met many a Canadian Engineer in my travels just through seeing that distinctive little ring.
The Iron Ring Ceremony – The old “iron” rings would wear out, get thin and then crush around your finger when you were doing physical work. The new ones are stainless steel (except in Ontario) and much more durable. I am on my fourth one – two wore out, the third was cut off after being squashed when I broke some fingers. Hopefully the last one will survive me. It is the only ring I wear as I found out long ago that my activities were hard on rings and fingers but I figured I could afford to lose my little finger (and nearly have, more than once).
My “Obligation Certificate” still hangs on my wall. The “Obligation” can be seen in the article referenced below. I still think of it often. Other professions have similar obligations – doctors, lawyers.
Do meteorologists or scientists? Dunno. But they ought to.
Canadian Architects, originally part of engineering, also wear a ring, often silver, with the same “Obligation”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ritual_of_the_Calling_of_an_Engineer
http://www.oaa.on.ca/bloaag-detail/The-Ring/365

Non Nomen
Reply to  Non Nomen
December 12, 2016 2:14 am

Gary Pearse
December 11, 2016 at 7:36 am
Canadian professional engineers wear a steel ring on their right little finger to remind them of the1907 collapse of what was to be the World’s longest cantelevered bridge over the St Lawrence’s R. It fell when nearly completed killing a large number of workers. The rings were traditionally made from the bridge steel although I understand that today it is made from new steel. I fully recommend that new scientists have a similar solemn ceremony of some kind upon graduation. Any ideas?

I recommend electronic tags. Or a ring with a hockey stick on it?

Reply to  Non Nomen
December 14, 2016 11:40 am

I am on my third ring. Lost one, wore out one. I hope to wear out this stainless one too.
The calling of the engineer ceremony is now also done in some US universities, so not all ring wearers are Canadians. I love the daily reminder of my oath perform work that protects the public.

Doug Huffman
Reply to  Chimp
December 11, 2016 5:27 am

IPCC can steal away to ignominy dragging the UN OWG with it.

Rolf
Reply to  Chimp
December 11, 2016 8:43 am

How about accountability and returning stolen money?

ossqss
December 10, 2016 9:16 pm

Thanks Dr. Ball.
Let’s hope the piece of legislation just passed will not impact the future of your last few sentences. Let alone the crackdown on information and censorship our social medial providers and search engines are working on dilligently. I would suspect most of this activity was expecting a HRC victory. We will see.
Regards
Ed
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-10/senate-quietly-passes-countering-disinformation-and-propaganda-act

Archie
December 10, 2016 9:20 pm

No explanation needed. Cut the funding and move on to the next circus.

Goldrider
Reply to  Archie
December 11, 2016 6:25 am

The only explanation necessary is to show the graph back to the last couple of glaciations. The plain fact that the world was both much warmer, and much colder, in antiquity long before the industrial age is ALL most ordinary people (like me) need to know to draw their own conclusions. Nothing is harder hitting! Just show the true historical record without “adjustments.”

TA
Reply to  Goldrider
December 11, 2016 12:13 pm

“Just show the true historical record without “adjustments.”
Yes. A true representation of the temperature profile is not a scary thing. It demonstrates that temperatures trend up for a couple of decades and then trend down, and then up again. Not straight up at a 45 degree angle like the bogus surface temperature charts the alarmists use to scare people. Place the real termperature profile and the fake temperature profile side-by-side and let the people decide.

December 10, 2016 9:27 pm

It’s no wonder that the Elites want to stifle the internet. Thanks Dr. Ball, you are no longer the lone voice in the wilderness. You , Anthony and the many others on this site are incredibly important to the freedom of speech and information.

Chimp
December 10, 2016 9:28 pm

Anyone who wants the world to be colder is out of his friggin’ gourd!
I want winter over. Tomorrow!

Pop Piasa
Reply to  Chimp
December 10, 2016 10:56 pm

Fly south, my good hominoid friend. The Caribbean or Riviera Maya are exquisite this time of year. Ironic that the tropics don’t warm like the poles.

Reply to  Pop Piasa
December 10, 2016 11:42 pm

Hemisphereist

Non Nomen
Reply to  Chimp
December 11, 2016 1:00 am

No. Yesterday.

Brian H
Reply to  Chimp
December 14, 2016 8:47 am

The current sample should put paid to the AGW meme for many.

December 10, 2016 9:35 pm

Three items will help President Trump politically dismantle the Climate Hustle.
– The PDO is in a negative phase for at least a decade.
– The AMO is negative now and will be for 20+ more years.
– The current solar cycle is crashing to a 100 yr low for the next 4 years, maybe an additional 2 cycles as well.
The Climate Hustle has left the world ill-prepared for the coming 2 decades of cold.

ossqss
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 10, 2016 9:41 pm

Don’t overlook reallocation of the climate slush fund funding to something that provides results. However it looks like some democrats are killing some of that opportunity already too.
http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/12/florida-georgia-water-war-kills-weather-forecasting-bill

Reply to  ossqss
December 10, 2016 9:55 pm

With a US Fed govt $3.6 Trillion dollar annual budget and $20 Trillion of debt, a few billion “re-allocated” is nothing compared to the globalTrillion dollar Climate Hustle, where the orld is not prepared for cold.
But make no mistake, the Watermelons have terms like Climate Disruption and Climate Interference waiting to replace Climate Change warming as their goto meme when the global cold hits.

Reply to  ossqss
December 11, 2016 4:42 am

Joel I honestly cannot see that benefiting them much. The public has already seen their cynical branding change once and to keep doing that over and over is only going to make them look more stupid and dishonest than they already do.

Hugs
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 11, 2016 12:18 am

The Climate Hustle has left the world ill-prepared for the coming 2 decades of cold.

As a lukewarmer type I really have difficulties is seeing how probable a cooling would be. Lets hope there is no big change whatsoever. A two decade cooling would be scary because it would mean CO2 effect with feedbacks is too small to offset natural cooling that would surely be devastating in the long run.
Some warming is OK, but tipping point cooling would kill millions and millions.

Reply to  Hugs
December 11, 2016 3:28 am

The tipping point in the Holocene has already occurred at about 1000BC. Since then cooling has occurred at 20 times the rate of the pervious 7000 years. The last millennium 1000AD – 2000AD was the coldest so far of our happy interglacial.
From previous experience the end of of the Holocene is overdue. Global cooling could well begin to accelerate further this century, next century or this millennium.
The sun is descending into a truly quiet phase similar to the Little Ice Age could signal either a cold interlude (quite bad enough for Man-kind and the biosphere) or the escalation to the end our our Interglacial with all the adverse effects that implies: See
https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/2015/06/01/the-holocene-context-for-anthropogenic-global-warming-2/

Reply to  Hugs
December 11, 2016 5:06 am

Unlike global warming, natural cooling won’t be a sudden disaster. Look at the ice core records. Almost every interglacial started with a sudden rise in temperature. The last one may have been as short as 500-1000 years when the temperature jumped about 10C. After the warming in almost all cases the world immediately started fitfully cooling- slow cooling with ups and downs over 80-100,000 years, ending up with a couple of miles of ice in various places. Then another heat wave came. We have a long, slow way to go before cold becomes a major problem. We just have to leave our descendants in a position to adapt to and survive the next ice age. That may be problematical.

Bill Illis
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 11, 2016 3:56 am

joelobryan December 10, 2016 at 9:35 pm
– The AMO is negative now and will be for 20+ more years.
———————
Nope, last month the AMO index was +0.400C, a relatively high value, although the AMO does appear to be impacted somewhat by large ENSO events with a lag of 8 months or so. You can see this in the AMO of 1878, 1944, 1998, 2016. Thus, it may just be high right now due to the last super-El-Nino. (On the other hand, they are now mucking around so much with the Ocean SSTs that it could actually be a low value. We won’t be able to tell anymore because everything is adjusted in a basement office at the NCDC now). But it is high right now.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.long.data

Reply to  Bill Illis
December 11, 2016 5:48 am

on the AMO, the 7 yr moving average is what matters for multidecadal climate effects. Monthly numbers are noisy signls. That real physical number my affect weather, but that’s not climate.
AMO 7 year moving avg peaked in 2014-2015.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/AMO%20GlobalAnnualIndexSince1856%20With11yearRunningAverage.gif

Richard M
Reply to  Bill Illis
December 11, 2016 6:59 am

I agree completely with Bill. The AMO is still strongly positive. However, it has started it’s cooling phase which means it has reached its peak and started on its long 30+ year downward journey. However, GASTA effects likely lag the AMO index due to the already melted Arctic sea ice.
It takes time to melt the ice and just like an ice cube doesn’t melt immediately in your drink, it has taken about 2/3 of the positive mode of the AMO to finally get Arctic sea ice to where it is today. Even though the AMO index will be going down, the water is still warm enough on average to make any big sea ice recovery unlikely. This means open ocean water is releasing heat and will keep the GASTA higher especially during the 6 months when it affects the Arctic temperature the most (Nov-Apr).
We could easily see another 5-10 years of relatively low Arctic sea ice. If you’ve been looking for a big recovery then I wouldn’t hold my breath. The only thing that could change this would be a strong multi-year La Nina and right now that doesn’t seem likely.

Latitude
Reply to  Bill Illis
December 11, 2016 9:02 am

That real physical number my affect weather…
Not according to the loons….
Now we have the polar vortex…they’ll probably start naming them soon too..caused by lack of ice…and when the AMO is positive…the Atlantic current takes it right into the NWP
They are claiming that’s climate

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Bill Illis
December 11, 2016 9:34 pm

“AMO 7 year moving avg peaked in 2014-2015.”
That would be an awfully short positive AMO if it has indeed peaked. It’s just as likely that it’s a blip on the way to the actual peak.

pokerguy
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 11, 2016 6:24 am

“The coming climate science battle will also involve PowerPoints. Those who have doubts about whether humans are causing the planet to warm must develop bullet points of information easily digestible for public consumption to counteract the current climate science, the type that the average person can understand, ”
This is crucial, starting with a simple but effective response to the common belief that there’s a 97 percent consensus that we’re all going to fry. I have relatives….young women…who’ve been weeping hysterically since Trump was elected. Their fear and sorrow and despair, though on the one hand ludicrous, is also genuine. They’re convinced that all life on earth is in peril.They’re terrified of the grim future they’re convinced awaits their children.
The global warming fear is a kind of terrible virus, intentionally spread, which has infected many well meaning, if credulous people. There’ll be no easy cure, but it starts with debate. We welcome that debate. But we must be also be ready for that debate. I’ve been disappointed so far, with the way skeptical scientists have handled themselves in the few public congressional hearings they’ve been invited to. They just haven’t been prepared with ready talking points.

TA
Reply to  pokerguy
December 11, 2016 12:55 pm

“This is crucial, starting with a simple but effective response to the common belief that there’s a 97 percent consensus that we’re all going to fry. ”
I think this is very important.
If you notice, all the advocates of CAGW go to this talking point almost immediately. It’s effective, if not refuted. Most people don’t have the time or temperment to look into these things themselves so they have to depend on the advice of experts, and when you tell them 97 percent of experts say CAGW is real it makes an impact on a person who is not knowledgeable of the facts.

Reply to  pokerguy
December 12, 2016 4:16 am

It’s not only about power point. It’s also about finding a common core. Alarmists and skeptics both very often argue with extreme statements.
Calling a CAGW believer a fool or something like that will certainly produce some bad hormones, causing the “fight or flight” state. We really know so little about climate and its better to search a neutral area to start with, or areas where both sides can agree with.
Then there is the lengthiness of the most skeptics videos. Even for me it’s often boring to go through.
We just have to think how to get videos viral. And to make short clips with a message that is exiting and creating a true interest to watch additional stuff.
Another problem is that climate skeptic stuff often is combined with other conservative or right views. You cannot convince somebody by expecting to swallow all thing at once.
And the there a lot of skeptical arguments which are simply not true, like DrRoySpencer.com points out:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/04/skeptical-arguments-that-dont-hold-water/
To convince others we have to be friendly, precise and concise. And to have a lot of endurance. It would be a great thing to work on this, but I have some doubt that the skeptic community will agree to. I just have heard enough angry, name-calling skeptical rant about non-believers.

barrybrill
December 10, 2016 9:39 pm

Tim
One of the first public push-backs ought to be a survey (maybe at the behest of a congressional committee) of ‘climate scientists’ in general (maybe the membership of APS) as to the perceived most likely value of the TCR and/or EQS – given that the AR5 was unable to agree upon a figure.
This may be the most effective way of getting rid of the ‘overwhelming evidence’ and ‘97% of scientists’ propaganda, which persuade most of the un-scienced public.
I realise that head-counting will be offensive to some. If that objection can’t be overcome, at least establish a small expert committee, chaired by a judge, to report on the recent scholarship on sensitivity..

Roger Knights
Reply to  barrybrill
December 11, 2016 5:10 am

Hear, hear!

pochas94
December 10, 2016 10:03 pm

As Trump would say, Global Warming is “Fake News.”

Hugs
Reply to  pochas94
December 11, 2016 12:20 am

Warming is not fake news. But much of the inconvenient truths are fake news.

Chimp
Reply to  pochas94
December 11, 2016 5:00 pm

Warming since AD c. 1690 is real news. Attributing the past however many decades thereof primarily to human activities in the fake part.
The long-term trend of the past more than 3000 years is still cooling however. That’s what’s worrisome.

December 10, 2016 10:08 pm

Maurice Strong and the UNEP are the source of both invented global environmental crises – ozone depletion and climate change.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2794991
without evidence that “ozone depleting substances” deplete ozone
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2843032
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2748016
or that fossil fuel emissions cause climate change
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2853163
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2845972
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2873672
we’ve been sold a bill of goods under the old Malthusian rubric of saving the planet from ourselves. a bizarre concept. and nobody asked: if we are the problem and if cagw will get rid of us with extreme weather and rising seas, isn’t that a good thing for the planet in the long run?
burn those fossil fuels please.
burn baby burn.

Reply to  chaamjamal
December 10, 2016 10:25 pm

Shouldn’t that be ‘Burn babies! Burn…’
…if population reduction is where its at…
I’ll get my coat….

Brian H
Reply to  Leo Smith
December 11, 2016 3:37 am

The only UN pop. forecast ever even close has been the Low Fertility one. It projects now a peas around 2045 of about 8.5 bn., declining thereafter to < 7 bn. by 2100.

Brian H
Reply to  Leo Smith
December 11, 2016 3:38 am

a peak around 2-45 …

MarkW
Reply to  Leo Smith
December 12, 2016 10:23 am

One trend I’ve noticed, is that every 10 years, they have to adjust those curves, and the dates for all of the peaks get sooner and lower.

co2islife
December 10, 2016 10:42 pm

The coming climate science battle will also involve PowerPoints. Those who have doubts about whether humans are causing the planet to warm must develop bullet points of information easily digestible for public consumption to counteract the current climate science, the type that the average person can understand,

This has already been done. Once the public gets to look at the data and conclusions they realize real quick that there are real problems with this “science.” This documentary highlights such efforts.
https://youtu.be/QowL2BiGK7o?t=11m50s

Roger Knights
Reply to  chaamjamal
December 11, 2016 5:13 am

For more on the importance of visual presentations on climate change, see Scott Adams’ blog post from yesterday, at http://blog.dilbert.com/post/154250104221/watching-trump-create-money-from-nothing

Phillip Bratby
Reply to  co2islife
December 10, 2016 11:06 pm

I have my PowerPoint presentations ready for whenever anybody asks me for a talk on the climate change scam.

Phillip Bratby
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
December 10, 2016 11:07 pm

I have my PowerPoint presentations ready for whenever anybody asks me for a talk on climate change.

jorgekafkazar
December 10, 2016 11:04 pm

“I know what is needed after 25 years reaching a Science credit course for Arts students.”
I’ll admit getting Arts students to comprehend any science is a reach, but I think you meant ‘teaching.”

Reply to  jorgekafkazar
December 11, 2016 12:21 am

Somewhat larger correction – 80% of the public are NOT Arts students. I haven’t seen figures, so perhaps 80% of the college-indoctrinated are Arts students. That is not the “public” – closer to 80% of the public are people who work (or have worked) for a living. Which is why “climate change” is so low in every last poll.

Lance of BC
Reply to  Writing Observer
December 11, 2016 8:44 pm

thank you

co2islife
December 10, 2016 11:13 pm

The best argument against AGW can be made by controlling for all the factors except CO2. That is how any real science would approach this issue.
1) The only mechanism by which CO2 can affect climate is by trapping IR radiation between 13 and 18&micron;.
2) CO2 can only trap heat, and therefore can only contribute to warming.
3) IR radiation between 13 and 18&micron; is consistent with a black body of -80°C.
4) H20 saturates the IR absorption in most of the lower atmosphere.
To isolate the impact of CO2 on temperature you would need a place with a temperature near -80°C, and very very very dry air. That place exists at the S Pole. Here is the temperature graph of the S Pole. Clearly CO2 has no impact on temperature.comment image
http://www.john-daly.com/ges/surftmp/stations/vostok.gifcomment image
http://www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctica%20fact%20file/antarctica%20environment/deep-south.jpg

Hugs
Reply to  co2islife
December 11, 2016 12:27 am

Natural variation ate my homework! The poles warm faster than the rest, but the meter is rigged!
It’s a non-urban cold continent?
Oh now I remembered, the South Pole is upside down, therefore CO2 radiatevely cools air there.

RobW
Reply to  co2islife
December 11, 2016 10:00 am

Very good point

Cinaed
Reply to  co2islife
December 11, 2016 6:23 pm

“2) CO2 can only trap heat, and therefore can only contribute to warming.”
Actually, CO2 can only trap heat for a couple of nanoseconds, therefore it can NOT contribute to warming.
The only atmospheric gases which can trap heat are H20 and O2 – water via it’s various phase transitions and oxygen via it’s allotrope ozone.
Also, CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere – the gases which are capable of trapping heat are not well mixed.

MarkW
Reply to  Cinaed
December 12, 2016 10:25 am

A couple of nano-seconds is more than enough time to transfer that energy to another molecule via collision.
Where did you get the crazy idea that well mixed gasses can’t trap heat?

co2islife
December 10, 2016 11:22 pm

This graph says it all:comment image

John Shotsky
Reply to  co2islife
December 11, 2016 3:19 am

Data has shown that temperature changes precede CO2 changes by up to hundreds of years. The increase of CO2 today may very well be associated with temperature changes of the past. The chart is misleading because it assumes that temperature and CO2 change in step. They don’t. Co2 does not cause temperature change, temperature change causes CO2 changes! This will eventually become evident as the oceans cool, and absorb more CO2. Don’t expect to be around to verify it though…

Simon
Reply to  John Shotsky
December 11, 2016 9:57 am

“The increase of CO2 today may very well be associated with temperature changes of the past.”
Umm no. We know where it has come from. It’s us.

catweazle666
Reply to  co2islife
December 11, 2016 11:21 am

“We know where it has come from. It’s us.”
No we know nothing of the sort, because it isn’t.

philincalifornia
Reply to  co2islife
December 11, 2016 12:45 pm

“Clearly CO2 has no impact on temperature.”
Those are two excellent posts above, but I think some modification for accuracy is required based on the actual data. How about:
“Clearly CO2 above pre-industrial levels of around 280 ppm has no measurable impact on temperature”.

philincalifornia
Reply to  philincalifornia
December 11, 2016 12:46 pm

…. responding to co2islife’s posts

Admin
December 10, 2016 11:44 pm

I don’t think it would be safe to simply pull the teeth of the EPA, abolition is safer. That way Congress would have to support any new agency with similar powers – it wouldn’t be possible to resurrect the EPA by executive order.

Latitude
Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 11, 2016 9:03 am

100%

Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 11, 2016 11:59 am

EPA was created by a Nixon Executive Order. House and Senate then ratified his actions.
The best way to defang the EPA is for Congress to amend the Clean Air Act that allowed the EPA to make endangerment findings and create whole nation altering regulations without the consent of Congress.
Also the Clean Water Act and the Endangered Species Act need revisions to stop an out-of-control President and prevent major regulatory schemes implementation without Congressional ratification.

Geronimo
December 10, 2016 11:51 pm

Where does the claim that 80% of the public are Arts students come from? As far as I know
at most 50% of people nowadays attend University and of that again at most 50% are arts students
Giving at most 25% of the public being arts students (and previously the number would have been much
lower).

ferdberple
Reply to  Geronimo
December 11, 2016 7:42 am

In general 25% of the population have a math aptitude, and 75% struggle. The hard sciences draw largely from those that find math easy. The hard sciences can be easily recognized because the word “science” does not appear in their name. For example, we don’t call physics “physical science”.
The soft sciences are where we place those without a math aptitude that like to think of themselves as scientists. The soft sciences can be easily recognized because they add the word “science” to their name. Such “political science” or “climate science”. These are art courses dressed up to appear like science.
Thus in soft sciences like climate science, it is what you believe and what you deny that is important, while in hard sciences like math and physics it is what you observe that is important.
The one exception is those that have a math aptitude that go into the soft sciences. These people tend to dominate the soft sciences because they can dress things up to look like real science, and fool the rest of their field because the rest of their field is weak in math.
So for example, “tree ring calibration” was invented by a climate scientists with math aptitude. It looks logical to other climate scientists that have no math aptitude, so they believe the results. While in point of fact anyone with college level statistics knows tree ring calibration is a POS..

Reply to  Geronimo
December 11, 2016 9:36 am

Any artist who has spent any time at his/her craft knows that you can sometimes spend hours and days slaving away at a creation, struggling to make it look right, fighting tooth and nail to get it fixed to where it no longer annoys you, so that you can live with it. And sometimes, even after going through all this, you reach a point where you positively have to stand back and look at the creation objectively, and, if necessary, admit that it sucks, trash it, and start all over again. Such artists KNOW the truth when they see it.
Catastrophic Human-Caused CO2 Global Warming is such a creation, and it’s time to stand back to assess the truth of it.
I’m an artist, by the way (click on my name to see some of my crap), and I have been “standing back” to assess the truth of this creation for a few years now, and I still see it as crap that needs to be trashed, because too many things about it bug the hell out of me.

December 11, 2016 12:05 am

Outstanding article, Dr Ball.
However, one sentence threw me somewhat (from your penultimate paragraph):

Conversations and information gleaned at the Heritage Climate Conference on Thursday assures me accurate climate science is in charge.

I haven’t understood that, to date, ‘accurate climate science is in charge’. Did you mean ‘will be in charge’ (under the new administration)? Or have I misunderstood your meaning completely?

Reply to  Luc Ozade (@Luc_Ozade)
December 11, 2016 12:10 am

Ahhhhh. Maybe I didn’t detect a certain sarcasm in your remark? That would then make total sense, lol.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Luc Ozade (@Luc_Ozade)
December 11, 2016 5:03 am

Me thinks the correct interpretation is …… “accurate climate science was in charge at the Heritage Climate Conference on Thursday”.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Luc Ozade (@Luc_Ozade)
December 11, 2016 5:15 am

“Did you mean ‘will be in charge’ (under the new administration)?”
The was how I read it.

Reply to  Roger Knights
December 11, 2016 6:14 am

I’m glad I’m not the only one who stumbled over this!
Mostly, I get a chuckle from seeing people get reproached because they didn’t detect sarcasm, without the usual /sarc adornment. It looks like my own sarc-sensor may need a reboot.

kim
Reply to  Roger Knights
December 11, 2016 6:32 am

I think SCC has it. The meaning is that with Trump accurate climate science is now in charge. Tim anticipates, but reports from the creative scene.
=================

JohnKnight
Reply to  Roger Knights
December 11, 2016 12:06 pm

I think he meant in charge of the transition aspect . .

Tim Crome
December 11, 2016 12:26 am

Couple of bullet points that are aimed at the most fundamental, and arrogant, assumptions made by the IPCC:
+ The IPCC assume that there has effectively been no natural climate variation since 1750! Ref. IPCC report AR5 WG1 Figure TS.6 on page 54. All the climate models are based on this assumption!
+ The influence of cosmic rays on climate is discussed in the report and dismissed, see page 56, second paragraph of TS.3.5. The latest work from Svensmark clearly shows this dismissal is incorrect.

Reply to  Tim Crome
December 11, 2016 4:35 am
commieBob
Reply to  Javier
December 11, 2016 5:43 am

Svensmark is clear that the effect is small and hard to measure. link

Very few strong Forbush decreases occur and their effect on cloud formation is expected to be close to the limit of detection using global atmospheric observations measured by satellites and land based stations.

I don’t see anything wrong. If you’re going to call him wrong you have to point out his actual error. As far as I can tell, your post doesn’t refute anything Svensmark actually said.

Reply to  Javier
December 11, 2016 7:33 am

the effect is small and hard to measure.

It is always that way when it is not real.
It was the case of the The N ray affair
As I said cosmic rays on Earth follow mainly the geomagnetic dipole. As the climatic variations don’t look at all like the dipole variations, it follows that cosmic rays cannot have an important role in the climate of the Earth at any significant temporal scale to us.
We cannot rule out a small effect as you claim, but then, who cares?

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Javier
December 11, 2016 9:46 pm

Sooo, since the CO2 effect is “hard to measure”, we don’t need to worry about it. Right?

Reply to  Javier
December 12, 2016 2:37 am

Jeff,

since the CO2 effect is “hard to measure”

I see you are more comfortable in the realm of rhetoric than science. The CO2 effect is so simple to measure that it was measured in primitive labs over a hundred years ago, and repeatedly since.
Do not try to redefine science in your terms when you ignore almost everything about it. Svensmark effect remains hypothetical and not supported by the evidence. People that don’t care too much about science, like you, don’t mind however.

commieBob
Reply to  Tim Crome
December 11, 2016 5:21 am

Here’s a link to a WUWT story from August 25. I think that’s what you are referring to.
The cosmic ray influence on clouds is hard to measure. It’s like trying to separate the anthropogenic influence from natural variability. Of course the alarmists apply their double standard and dismiss the cosmic ray influence and take the anthropogenic influence as gospel.
The real science is nuanced and difficult. Even James Hansen admits that his previous alarmist approach was wrong.

Tim Crome
Reply to  commieBob
December 11, 2016 5:57 am

Yes, thanks, that was the work I was referring to.

commieBob
December 11, 2016 12:46 am

The only role for WMO and all national weather offices is creation of a dense standardized grid of data collection stations including as many existing viable stations as possible. … They should not do any research or forecasting.

The free government weather forecasts are important. Many people depend on them, aviators, farmers, fishers, to name a few.
Some people’s lives depend on the marine weather forecast. An example would be the folks living in small fishing communities. They can get radio signals but they don’t have the internet. For many years they have been able to know if a major storm was looming by listening to the marine weather forecast. Fishing has always been a dangerous way to make a living but I am sure the marine weather forecast has made it less so.

ferdberple
Reply to  commieBob
December 11, 2016 7:49 am

Many years of blue water sailing taught me not to trust government forecasts. all too often the forecast is reporting what has happened, not what will happen. experience on the water saves many more lives than the government forecasts.
From personal experience, the very worst times we have had on the ocean came from trusting the official forecast when my gut feel was that the forecast was wrong. We were lucky, but over the years a lot of boats we knew were badly beat up or lost as a result.

ferdberple
Reply to  commieBob
December 11, 2016 7:52 am

the problem is that the government forecast has no correction mechanism. in business, if your forecast is wrong, your customers go elsewhere and you go out of business. governments never fire incompetents, lest they themselves get fired. they don’t want to start a dangerous precedent. so a lot of the time the free government forecast is worth exactly what you paid for it – it is worth nothing.

bill johnston
Reply to  ferdberple
December 11, 2016 10:24 am

But you must admit it gives many people something to talk and kvetch about at the local coffee shop.
Call it a conversation stimulator.

MarkW
Reply to  commieBob
December 12, 2016 10:31 am

If it’s important to you, you should be willing to pay at least a few dollars for it.
Free is rarely worth the cost.

Ex-expat Colin
December 11, 2016 1:12 am

Good piece with common sense…and you will need us in UK to assist. How that will happen i don’t know because we are riddled with well known fanatics and their bag carriers. And they are of a particular education type…those with a high University PPE (Philosophy, Politics and Economics). You can pick one up at Oxford Uni…simply pay and go!
Stop funding the alarmists and the whole thing should fairly quietly fall away. Keep government out of this foolish business is the best start. I’d go as far as to call back monies wherever possible. Just hoping the UK Govt is watching this, only not holding breath.

December 11, 2016 1:25 am

Typo?
25 years “teaching” not “reaching” ….. ?

Roger Knights
Reply to  Oldseadog
December 11, 2016 5:17 am

Another typo: “comprised of” should be “composed of.” Saying “comprised of” is like saying “included of.”

JohnKnight
Reply to  Oldseadog
December 11, 2016 12:36 pm

{There are several typos, and it got me thinking, and I thinked that it would be good to have a routine way to mention them, as in an expected, polite and helpful to the author way, . . and I thinked these “brace” thingies I’ve used for this comment don’t get used much . . }

MarkW
Reply to  JohnKnight
December 12, 2016 10:33 am

Perhaps the people who manage the software that runs this site could add a separate button so that typos, etc could be sent directly to the author of the piece?

JohnKnight
Reply to  JohnKnight
December 12, 2016 3:50 pm

Perhaps, Mark, but displaying them in some form with the article/comments would eliminate much potential redundancy, no doubt.
If it’s possible to have a distinct comment section that perpetually displayed at the end of the regular comments, that might be best, but barring such coding tricks, instituting a convention of sorts wherein once someone made a “proofread” sort of comment (that’s where the “braced” aspect would come in) others could then “reply” to that first one with further detected errors, and the author could find them fairly easily, it seems to me.
A short notice could be displayed after each article, informing people of the desired procedure, and I would think that within a few days it would begin to become “conventional” . .

December 11, 2016 1:32 am

Excellent, Dr. Ball. Thanks.

Scottish Sceptic
December 11, 2016 1:39 am

Having watched the Heritage conference, I was very impressed both with the standard of knowledge of senators as well as their laudable aims improving the science and making government stick to the constitution.
However, there still remained the issue, that poor quality data got us into this mess and unless we dramatically improve the data we have and depoliticise the science, then we could all too easily slip back into the quagmire.
There are three distinct areas: those who collect data, those who use the data to interpret the science and those who take the science and convert it to policy. Science is needed in all three areas, but politics should be kept out of the first two. And there needs to be a clear firewall between those collating the data and those doing the scientific predictions to prevent the temptation of cooking the data to fit the theory.
So, I very much welcome the suggestion of concentrating on a grid measurement of global data. I would also strongly urge that we get satellite monitoring for the polar regions. Together these should provide the necessary combination of good quality ground data and total satellite coverage.
However, the final issue is that climate science has focussed on issues that are conveniently beyond the career life of any of those involved. As a result, there has been little to stop reckless speculation or indeed politically inspired activism taking over the subject.
I therefore strongly suggest the focus of climate research is redirected to long-term weather/short-term climate forecasting at the regional level. Not only will this vastly improve our knowledge of the climate in a way that can be tested against down-to-earth measurements repeatedly through a career, but it will also provide invaluable help to the many communities that suffer from periodic famines and other weather/climate related disasters.
To put it simply: no one is ever going to stop activism on the climate – but if we focus it onto something that is useful to human-kind (regional weather/climate) rather than the current global anti-co2/industry stance which has been totally destructive of modern civilisation – those who are inclined to get involved in activism will be focussing on useful activity

Rhoda R
Reply to  Scottish Sceptic
December 11, 2016 3:24 pm

You should add a fourth area: “Those who adjust the data.”

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Scottish Sceptic
December 11, 2016 9:52 pm

“However, there still remained the issue, that poor quality data got us into this mess”
Doesn’t seem that way to me.
Trying to use data for a purpose for which it wasn’t suited, willful abuse of statistics, and the corruption of power is what got us into this mess.

richard verney
December 11, 2016 1:40 am

Lamb was absolutely correct, one needs to know about past history and natural variation before there is any prospect of understanding whether man is playing any role whatsoever in Climate. I consider that we need to get a proper handle on the 1940s temperatures.
I consider that there should be an audit of all stations and the most pristine stations (wholly unaffected by UHI and siting issues) should be selected. Then one should look at this station data (no add ins, no drop outs etc just the very same stations) to ascertain what the temperature was in absolute terms, not anomalies in the period late 1930s/early 1940s, and then compare that with today’s temperatures at these same locations. Stations could be selected where there is no siting issues/moves, and no change to TOB so adjustment for such events need not be made. Just get pure empirical data where no adjustments need be made.
This would produce a simple sanity check. There is no need to consider the entire instrument record. We know that the 1940s was warm, we know that manmade CO2 could at most be influential post 1940 so we can quickly see what temperature change there has been during the period when about 95% of all manmade CO2 has been emitted.

David S
December 11, 2016 1:59 am

The appointments to the Epa of climate sceptics gives me hope that CO2 can be decriminalised. Once it becomes accepted that CO 2 is in fact a beneficial gas and more of it is more beneficial the whole global warming scam collapses. Correlation is not causation . Global temperatures are due pretty much entirely due to natural cycles.

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