Guest Post By Walter Dnes
In continuation of my Temperature Anomaly projections, the following are my November projections, as well as last month’s projections for October, to see how well they fared.
|HadCRUT4 2016/11||+0.786 (incomplete data)|
The Data Sources
The latest data can be obtained from the following sources
- HadCRUT4 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.18.104.22.168.monthly_ns_avg.txt
- GISS http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
- UAH http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/tltglhmam_6.0beta5.txt
- RSS ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt
- NCEI https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/global/globe/land_ocean/p12/12/1880-2016.csv
At the time of posting 4 of the 5 monthly data sets were available through October 2016. HadCRUT4 was only available through September. The NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data runs 2 days behind real-time. Therefore, real daily data through November 28th is used, and the 29th and 30th are assumed to have the same anomaly as the 28th.
October was the first month in a long time that saw all 5 anomaly data sets fall below their levels of 12 months ago. UAH was marginal with a drop of just 0.003°.
The global NCEP/NCAR monthly anomaly for November has risen to approximately September 2016’s level. The subsets corresponding to RSS and UAH satellite coverage show smaller rises for November than the global anomaly.
The graph immediately below is a plot of recent NCEP/NCAR daily anomalies, versus 1994-2013 base, similar to Nick Stokes’ web page. The second graph is a monthly version, going back to 1997. The trendlines are as follows…
- Black – The longest line with a negative slope in the daily graph goes back to mid July, 2015, as noted in the graph legend. On the monthly graph, it’s August 2015. This is near the start of the El Nino, and nothing to write home about. Reaching back to 2005 or earlier would be a good start.
- Green – This is the trendline from a local minimum in the slope around late 2004, early 2005. To even BEGIN to work on a “pause back to 2005”, the anomaly has to drop below the green line.
- Pink – This is the trendline from a local minimum in the slope from mid-2001. Again, the anomaly needs to drop below this line to start working back to a pause to that date.
- Red – The trendline back to a local minimum in the slope from late 1997. Again, the anomaly needs to drop below this line to start working back to a pause to that date.
NCEP/NCAR Daily Anomalies:
NCEP/NCAR Monthly Anomalies: