Despite the fact that he’s “given up on climate writing” thanks to the bizarre treatment he got writing at Nate Silver’s “538”, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. has done one very important climate thing today – he’s updated his now famous graph of hurricane drought.
Earlier today, I got one of those pleading “boo-hoo, shame on you” style comments from the irascible David Appell regarding the hurricane drought saying I’m too scared to discuss what he sees as an invalidation of this graph and record of 4001 days, he wrote:
Funny, that David, in his odd way of thinking. For the record, I don’t have any problems discussing science with Mr. Appell, I only have problems with you when you are being a jerk about differences of opinion. That’s why his comments get held for moderation, because he has a history of behaving in a less than cordial manner here and elsewhere. Despite that, his comments do get published when they meet site policy.
Regarding his link to the paper, here it is:
“The Arbitrary Definition of the Current Major Hurricane Landfall Drought,” Robert E Hart et al, BAMS (2015),
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00185.1
I read it this afternoon, and boy, what an effort to make this hurricane drought go away. It’s worthy of the statistical machinations we saw in Marcott et al and Karl et al to make “the pause” disappear.
We live in interesting times.
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The King is dead, long live the Queen. Nicole is picking up the baton in the Atlantic, with Bermudans in line. The NHC official forecast is for 90mph as it goes over/past Bermuda, but read between the lines and follow the history of this storm and you’ll see a major ‘cane building.
I was erring on the cautious side when I said a Cat 1 or 2 ‘cane would develop, but with its core now solidifying, the only thing stopping it from becoming Cat 4 is dry air in its path. It may be drawing up enough moisture to be able to punch its way through this dry air though.
Bermuda is well-defended against hurricanes, but anyone there had better be ready to double-down on defences just in case, as this has potential to be one of their rougher storms. All depends on the exact path.
In any case: “Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiighesssssssssssst tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiide everrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!” *
* As measured on subsiding passive margin using tide gauge attached to substrate.
The dry air didn’t stop Nicole reaching Category 4…
Looking like some kind of direct hit on Bermuda around mid-morning Eastern time. Hopefully the very strongest winds will pass to the south, but she’s going to have to bend to the right a bit more to stop the eyewall passing through the beautiful place.
They’re plenty used to stormy weather, but there’s not been many like this go straight for them. Get yer boats onto dry land under shelter – the harbour won’t provide much safety from this lady.