Hurricane Matthew is a Category 4 storm at the moment, that makes it very dangerous, and (if it makes landfall) something we have not seen in the continental United States for a over a decade. Surprisingly, just today, we passed the 4000 day mark for a drought of major (Cat 3 or greater) hurricanes to make landfall on the continental USA.
Hurricane Wilma was the last major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) to hit the U.S. It made landfall in Florida on October 24, 2005. The much ballyhooed Hurricane Sandy was Category 1 at landfall, and technically not a hurricane at that time, but an extra-tropical cyclone. Hurricane Ike in 2008, was a Category 2 when it made landfall.
Matthew is very likely to be the first major hurricane to strike the U.S. in almost 11 years, the question is will it be Florida, Gerogia, or the Carolinas?
Wednesday, October 5th, yesterday, was the 4,000 day mark after Hurricane Wilma’s landfall, or 10 years, 11 months, 12 days including the end date. Source.
Will all that, obviously activists will try to link it to global warming/climate change. at NBC, they already believe that the recently ratified Paris climate accord will stop such storms. Elsewhere, Thinkprogress serial doomster Joe Romm is saying his usual unsupportable schtick:
I’m not even going to bother with a link, his article is so bad…
Marc Morano noted [an article from David Kreutzer Via: http://dailysignal.com/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-is-deadly-serious-but-hurricane-hype-is-overblown/ ] at Climate Depot that there will be a lot of “scientists say we can expect,” but little actual data.
He’s right. [Kreutzer] adds:
That’s because the data show for the last 10 years we have had an unusual drought of landfalling major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher) on the continental U.S. That’s right, no major hurricanes have made landfall for over a decade. This is the longest such drought on record.
A lot of it is luck. There have been major hurricanes in the Atlantic whose paths have not taken them onshore. However, there has not been the steady increase in hurricane activity that the doom-and-gloomers predicted following a swarm of major hurricanes in 2005. Yes, there is a lot of change from year to year, but there is no worrisome trend.
In fact, taking a tally of the scariest hurricanes (Categories 4 and 5) indicates things were worse nearly a century ago. For the 44 years from 1926 to 1969, 14 of these most powerful storms made landfall, while the 46 years since then had only three.
Dr. Philip Kotzbach notes:
Only 1 hurricane as strong as #Matthew (140 mph) has made direct landfall on Grand Bahama Island on record (1935 Cuba Hurricane). pic.twitter.com/SUM48dvJWT
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) October 6, 2016
So what caused that stronger storm back then?
Dr. Ryan Maue also had some advice:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783784160871780352
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/783685839142449152
Remember that, when the climate doomsters try to convince you that this is all “climate change” driven.
Note: about 16 hours after publication, we were notified by Marc Morano at Climate Depot had not made attribution to the article by David Kreutzer, leading us to think those were Morano’s words. Morano has since corrected his copy, and we have corrected ours to give proper attribution – Anthony
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I havent been able to reach national hurricane centers website for the past hour. I get:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov’s server DNS address could not be found.
Can you all outside of FL reach it?
It’s been now for at least three hours maybe four by now. Nobody is getting to that site. It’s even been reported on some national news sites it’s down for the count. Clearly OVER LOADED.
Or busy fudging figures..
Well just before 12AM east coast time Matthew is developing an second larger eye. I think this means it’s weakening. Looks on radar the last three hours or so the eye has stayed about 60mi off shore no turn to shore yet.
I just was watching the news a couple of hours ago and the Gov. of Florida claimed there was likely to be a Blackout from the damage and that it may takes weeks to get it repaired. What the? My cousin who lives there took some precautionary measures and went to stay with her son a couple miles away just reported a few bands of rain and a bit of wind
Looks like NOAA has a plan to make sure this makes landfall in Florida. See link and look at land mass on east florida near titusvillle
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/041218.shtml?gm_track#contents
That link doesnt work for me. Nothing at nhc will load. WTF, in the middle of an epic event we cant get to an essential govt service?
I feel like Im getting jerked around. (Just like Hermine a few weeks ago). Im expected to evacuate my family by morning (I live in Northeast FL). This storm appears to be disintegrating. Should I just go back to sleep?
There has been few if any Government web sites that are worth a chit IMO. Need private industry to do this work at half the cost. Can say that about anything Government.
I wouldn’t move an inch based on what I am seeing now. You’ll get some TS force winds and heavy rains, but EPIC? this is not.
One days weather is not climate when there is a cold wave next winter.
How the Hell has NHC site been down so much tonight?
WTf?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
1 “San Ciriaco” 1899 73.57
2 Ivan 2004 70.38
3 “Four” 1926 67.59
4 Donna 1960 64.55
5 “Charleston” 1893 63.53
Could this storm make the top 5 ACE hurricanes in Atlantic history? Currently at 43. Its almost like we are reverting back to before CO2 started to rise.
… it’s only because of exaggerated wind speeds which get squared in the formula producing an even more exaggerated ACE.
In the past we have had a window tax so what’s so surprising about an air tax/
What were the highest sustained winds and gusts reported in the areas Matthew has already passed over? Do we really care if the airplanes record 165 mph gusts? Like the nutty alarmists say…why use that accurate satellite temperature of the troposphere?…use the crappy data down at surface where we live?
tags unnecessary, I hope.
Exuma international airport recorded 119 mph with gusts of 144mph.
NHC outage explanation at twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic
Something about a WOC.
Looks like 4001 days without a cat 3 hurricane hitting the USA…
And CAGW is to blame, once again. You can’t rely on nuffin’, nuffin’ any more!
The hurricane along Florida does not weaken.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/ATL/20.jpg
The Rain in Spain falls Mainly on the Plain.
“The geese fly south early this year.” (Exchanges microfilm canister with Climate Otter). Is the point here that the water temps are high so the hurricane won’t weaken much, ren?
CNN has reported several times today that this is the worst hurricane in 100 years.
So much for climate change. Almost 60 years ago the Kingston Trio sang,
“There’s hurricanes in Florida,
And Texas needs rain.”
Could be today’s weather report.
Anthony, I know you’re afraid to publish even a word from me, but you should read:
You wrote:
“Surprisingly, just today, we passed the 4000 day mark for a drought of major (Cat 3 or greater) hurricanes to make landfall on the continental USA.”
“The Arbitrary Definition of the Current Major Hurricane Landfall Drought,” Robert E Hart et al, BAMS (2015), http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00185.1
PS: I actually feel sorry for you, Anthony, being so afraid to publish anyone who disagrees with you. That has to be stressful and can’t be a healthy way to live. What are you so afraid of?
Ha ha,
David Appell,you whine while you got your post published, that you don’t get published here.
Your link is merely an attempt to redefine to an alternate reality. The TRUE reality is correct,there have been a massive reduction of landfalling category 3-5 Hurricanes, to ZERO in last ELEVEN years. That is reality you can’t handle because it mocks the barrel full load of wild eyed predictions,warmists made, that the years after 2005 would be the new normal. They have been exposed as being wrong,the rate have gone down and so have the powerful storms.
Grow up David!
First it was AGW but that didn’t pan out so it morphed into “Climate Change”. Then the ‘models’ didn’t work so the historical land temperature data was corrupted to put it more in line with the ‘models’. Things got worse for the believers when their “the ocean is hiding the heat” was challenged but not to be deterred they made the proclamation that sea temperature historical records were incorrect because they were doing it wrong all that time. Who knew? All the while the Argos buoys and satellite data supported the skeptics. The most advanced and accurate methods to measure water and air temperatures ever developed but since they contradicted the ‘models’ and ‘settled science’ they are ignored like they don’t exist. Only one word to describe this attempt… again… to alter the established measurement criteria because it doesn’t fit the AGW narrative. Pathetic. The Alarmists are becoming caricatures of the hooded soothsayers in the dark ages looking for hobgoblins to justify their existence. What possible purpose could this paper serve?
When the jet stream will push further south in the west of the hurricane will pass along the east coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/comp/nhem/wv-animated.gif
Correction, should read:
There’s a lot of hype about the reported wind speeds. NOAA is saying the reported wind speeds are from hurricane hunter aircraft. I have also read warnings that say that the windspeed increases rapidly with altitude. Their example was that an apartment building at ground floor level could have Cat1 speeds while on the 30th floor they could be Cat2 wind speeds. I wasn’t aware it was that dramatic. So it seems that NOAA is reporting higher altitude wind speed while the ground stations will measure much lower speeds, which could cause a lot of accusations about exaggerations. Is this consistent with how NOAA has always report wind speeds or are they just reporting the data from aircraft altitude which will never equal the ground speeds? Anyone have any idea?
If we’re looking at hype I think we should look at the cynical and rather stupid people trying to downplay this storm and allege that govt agencies are manipulating the wind data…
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/10/06/the_bizarre_political_logic_that_led_matt_drudge_to_downplay_hurricane_matthew.html?wpisrc=burger_bar
Just can’t help yourself can you?
Griff, perhaps you can explain to us stupid people what human emissions of carbon dioxide have to do with this hurricane. Thrill us with your acumen.
Griff,
Did it make landfall with Hurricane force winds?
If anyone’s cynical, it’s due to dealing with unerring, unending, and totally shameless propagandists – and those trying to profit by it – to the point where we’ve come to expect it.
Of course, you’re right there to assure us it isn’t cynicism – it’s reality.
So, wow, Grift – in that regard, you actually have achieved some measure of social value.
Sickening lying idiots. The Alarmists that is. Disgusting.
it’s a G@ur momisugly#damn hurricane! A weather phenomena that has occurred since earths inception. It’s the first big one in over 11yrs and THESE IDIOTS blame the co2 molecule? The world is effing up-side-down. I’m tuning out and heading to the woods for some sanity. Good grief.
Ask these scamming frauds, “Exactly what has changed in Florida’s climate? What exactly is different from 100 – 200 years ago?” When can we put these frauds in jail?
Deja vue all over again! Global warming doom and gloom! National Geographic predicted that the floodgate was opening with Katrina– that a deluge of hurricanes hitting the US as large and powerful as it would be the new normal from this day forward–all caused by anthropomorphic global warming. The Guardian cries wolf more than a decade after that prediction…
So close! What a disappointment this storm must be for Warmsters. They really could have used a direct hit on Florida now, with the upcoming election and all. Their saving grace will be Haiti. Lots of opportunity there to use their always-popular Appeals to Emotion, as well as Guilt. Yes indeed, it will be “our fault” that those poor people died.
“Worst ‘x’ in 100 years.” Apart from it being a Mantra repeated for effect, I never know what this means. The 100 yr ago ‘x’ could have actually been worse, or not. If the 100 yr ago ‘x’ was not as bad by not much, so what? So in responding to alarmist claims, I go tit for tat and say, “Therefore it was worse 100 yr ago!” and let them do the work of figuring out what it means, which they’ll never do, leaving me the “winner”.
A related, but more encouraging real life example from about 3 wk ago, but also involving “how to end your career in Government by not being PC”:
I was meeting with a US Forest Service guy and gal about their great plan for reducing fuel load in a Canyon “Corridor” where I have a not-modern Cabin which works great, but the Corridor has been accumulating fuel load without a fire for about 100 yr.
Their “Safety Project” is also for removing hazard trees because the Canyon has some nice Camp Grounds and Trail Heads into the Wilderness and a lot of people drive the road anyway, which a lot of trees fall over onto; and for having access by fire fighting equipment and “staging” etc, and a Helicopter landing site for the same, but also for evacuating people trapped or needing a quick response, because the slow-going road is a Dead End at, and not far from the only Trail Heads and most of the Camp Grounds
However the Canyon is controlled by the Wild and Scenic River Act, which a lot of Environmentalist Whackos think should mean “unmanaged by Humans because we are evil” and who obstruct rational management because that’s how their “Stakeholders” make their living. They’d rather have it burn down by a “Catastrophic Fire”, destroying all their “values” which they say they want to protect.
Luckily there’s another law which the USFS says allows them to manage The Wild and Scenic to conserve it, so the USFS really is on the right side! But their project here is perhaps a real Test Case for Man vs “Nature” as it concerns the Wild and Scenic Rivers.
Anyway at our meeting the FS [younger and excellent] guy brought up “global warming” which he thought could make his case for the Project stronger.
So I said, “You’ve already got a strong enough case and this Global Warming idea has been falsified by etc”
He said,”Oh oh, so maybe I shouldn’t [refer to it in my next write-up for the Project]”
But then he quickly said,”But CO2 is the highest it’s been in millions of yrs”
I said, “Ok it’s at 400ppm but at <200 plants start having trouble growing" and went on to explain also that "If you control a country's energy, you control its people" which he actually remembered and repeated back to me a few minutes later! We couldn't get into it more deeply.
He really wants to do things scientifically in the best interests of both Humans and Nature, because I've taken two of his on site tours of the Corridor, and he knows a sh** load about trees and ecology, perhaps comparable to another guy who I own my Cabin Property with, who just retired himself from the USFS as a high level but basically on-the-ground evaluator of Forests for the management of Timber Sales. They both know a sh** load more than I do.
The FS guy was still skeptical of my anti-AGW claims, but I knew he understood what I was saying. However what I've got to tell him very soon, but couldn't squeeze in right then and it just dawned on me again, is:
"Be careful, because if you question 'global warming'/'climate change' it might be a career-ender!
Ironically, on the 2nd, ad hoc Corridor Tour with him involving only my co-owner above and now two excellent USFS people, the longer term "gal" gave an example of this kind of career-ender concerning one of the first Female District Heads, or maybe even higher, when she was called to Washington to be presented and to thus represent the USFS.
The Elitist Establishment In-Crowders in Washington took one look at her and told her she "needed a makeover"! She didn't get one, so it was curtains for her, at least at that level!
And another ~45+yo excellent USFS woman I came across at our tiny "health club", and who doesn't need a makeover, told me she couldn't say what she wanted to because she was getting too close to retirement and didn't want to lose its benefits.
And now comes Comey, Lynch, Lerner, Macarthy, FBI, DOJ, IRS, EPA etc who only want to help us do the right thing, because the right thing is the right thing and therefore we must elect Hillary. A make-over couldn't possibly help her, but a total brain transplant might.