#Matthew may reach CAT5 before it reaches Florida – 4000 day hurricane drought mark reached

Latest models show track for east coast of Florida, strengthening of Matthew is possible as of today, it has been 4000 days since a major hurricane has made landfall on the United States, a record that could end tomorrow at 4001 days.

Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue seems to think that Matthew could get even stronger:

And he’s right. While Matthew may skirt the coast, there’s a lot of warm water in the Gulf Stream offshore to fuel the heat engine of the beast. Prior to the area being obscured by clouds forging ahead of Matthew, this image from the Rutgers Lab showed 85 to 87°F water just off the east Florida coast.


Source: https://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?nothumbs=0&product=sst&region=floridacoast


From NASA Goddard: Satellites continue to provide forecasters and scientists valuable data on the development and changes in Hurricane Matthew as it moves through the Bahamas and toward the Florida coast. NASA and NOAA satellites have provided visible, infrared and microwave data that enable forecasters to analyze the storm. The National Hurricane Center noted that Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it approaches the east coast of Florida.


On Oct. 5 at 2:30 p.m. EDT (1830 UTC) the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard the NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP satellite captured a visible image of Hurricane Matthew moving through the Bahamas. Credits: NOAA/NASA Goddard Rapid Response Team

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from north of Altamaha Sound to South Santee River South Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Chokoloskee to Golden Beach, Florida; for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge Eastward and Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from north Of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River.

At 8 a.m. EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near 24.6 degrees north latitude and 77.5 degrees west longitude. That’s about 30 miles (45 km) south-southwest of Nassau, Bahamas and 215 miles (350 km) southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that Matthew is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 kph), and this general motion is expected to continue today, Oct. 6. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected tonight.  On the forecast track, the eye of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New Providence in the northwestern Bahamas during the next few hours, pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday night, Oct. 7.

NHC said that reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 125 mph (205 kph) with higher gusts.  Matthew is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is expected today, and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it approaches the east coast of Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). Nassau in the Bahamas recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph (80 kph) with a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance aircraft was 940 millibars.

87 thoughts on “#Matthew may reach CAT5 before it reaches Florida – 4000 day hurricane drought mark reached

  1. Latest track from NOAA has it staying off shore (barely), so the record may continue. But Matthew is one that has defied accurate profiling (in contrast to other recent storms), so it teaches us we still have a lot to learn about the climate and weather.

    • “we still have a lot to learn about the climate and weather”
      Shhhh – don’t tell the Warmists – they’ll have a meltdown. The Science Is Settled, don’tcha know.

  2. I **should** be studying for my Microsoft 70-463 Data Warehouse certification.
    I **am** waiting on the 12Z GFS data to load into WeatherBell.
    Hope this thing just grazes the coast… I’ve work colleagues in that area.

    • Congratulations on your passing your Microsoft certification test — OF COURSE you are going to pass, Neil!
      Cheering for you (prayed, too),

  3. Surf is already up on the Fort Lauderdale beach. First rain squall just now approaching the beach. Wind gusts to 30. FLL Airport has closed. All cars ordered off the road by 1300. And the thing is still over 12 hours away. We plan to take the dog out at 1600 one last time before it hits tonight. Lastest local forcast has the eye come ashore around Jupiter, 90 miles north of here early Friday morning. Means Palm Beach will see hurricane force winds. Unfortunately, a lot of the storm has now developed to the left of the eye so much more of the state will be impacted. Orlando, for sure.

      • 12th floor. Actual equivant to 14 because of towering lobby. 150mph hurricane glass in 1/4 inch thick aluminum frames. Building is 26 total. We have a reasonably sheltered position thanks to building design compared to end units. We rode out a direct hit from Wilma as a strong Cat 2. We will probably get Cat 1 or Cat 2 winds after midnight, pressure washing the balconies.

    • “…a lot of the storm has now developed to the left of the eye…”
      We usually talk about the “dirty” side of a hurricane, that being the side to the right of the track (relative to if you’re driving it), but that sentence seems to indicate that can be set aside this time. Which brings me to an interesting thought… if the center of low pressure (the eye of the hurricane) stays off-shore, but land-based instruments record winds in the “major hurricane” level, did the 4000 day drought of major storms continue, or do we count an end to it?

      • CS you are correct about the dirty side. We will be on the soft side. Whatbis unusual is the eyenis not centered. It is way out on the right side.

      • CS: If the eye does stay off-shore, by say at least 10 miles, then I think it is unlikely there will be 111mph sustained winds on the shore, because the strongest winds are quite tightly packed. But if someone does reliably measure 111mph winds sustained over a minute, then personally I’ll be content to call the drought over.

  4. The toll from this hurricane has climbed above 100. 98 hapless Haitians are reported dead, so far.

  5. and Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane……..
    “The NHC forecast is slightly above
    most of the guidance during the first 24 hours”……just enough so they can claim major

  6. My elderly parents are evacuating out of the storm surge area but to a hotel that is still way to close to the ocean. I have offered repeatedly to drive them Northwest into GA, but they refuse. The thought of a miserable drive somehow seems more worrisome to them than spending a terrifying night in a hotel.
    Soon Ill have to leave myself, and the thought of leaving them there dreadful. I cant change their mind.

    • “too close” not “to close”. Also “I’ll have to”, not “Ill have to”, and “can’t”, instead of “cant”. I wouldn’t mention this but this crappy grammar is becoming too common on these posts. I’m starting to think some people don’t actually know basic grammar.

      • A life-threatening situation and YOU are worried about grammar! let’s take a break from this and help or console those who are in harm’s or have loved ones who are there..
        In other words: Shut up….

      • I agree about spelling and grammar. However, the types of mistakes you note are often caused more by the technology these days. The spell checkers often refuse to accept corrections or pick bad choices. Frustrating! Especially on phones. So a little slack for a man who obviously is more busy with the storm than spelling.
        Good luck to you Steve R.

      • I’m generally a pedant about spelling and grammar, but I agree – now is not the time for pedantry. Anybody who has the time for that cr@p or thinks it’s important right now is obviously no where near the storm’s path. Timo needs to get a life.

      • Timo. Stop worrying about grammar when people are worrying about whether they will survive what will be a terrible hurricane for them. We all understood what Steve was saying, and the vast majority of us would not be so rude as to point out his grammatical errors. If you cannot comment on the many problems that this hurricane will create and the sad deaths that have already followed in its wake, then I suggest you keep your comments to yourself. They are not clever in these terrible circumstances. And please don’t tell me if I have made any grammatical errors in this blog.

      • For a pedant, you seem to have some problems yourself. Those aren’t grammatical errors; those are spelling errors, or, more likely, typographical errors caused by enormous stress. Something you likely don’t have at this moment. And you should be thankful for that.
        In any case, Godspeed and all the best for the folks in the path of this storm, be it Cat 5 or Cat “none”…

      • If you’re going to be a grammar nazi, at least get it right. Most of us don’t care, as we can comprehend what the writers are saying, even though apostrophes are missing. Poelpe can udnstesand wrods even if the letters are mxide up.

      • “As of 10/06/2016 12:00 EDT, water levels along the coast from south Florida to South Carolina range from 0.6 to 2.0 feet above tidal predictions. Winds are currently measuring between 10 and 20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts along the east coast of Florida. Barometric pressure is beginning to decrease across the region.”

      • Based on the NOAA projected storm path from the posted link, they are predicting landfall near the Trident Pier, FL water station around 8am tomorrow.

      • I agree bw, for Steve R – it’s a great way to eliminate all the media hype and check for actual conditions near his parents location.
        CNN is reporting a majority of West Palm Beach residents have decided to ride the storm out. Let’s hope Matthew takes a right turn and stays away from the coast.

  7. I sincerely hope it doesn’t happen, but it sure looks like the drought is over. Not to mention the October FL east coast thing since 1851. Records only stand until they don’t.
    As the investors say: Past Performance Is Not Necessarily Indicative of Future Results.

  8. Funny thing about this storm, it is likely to loop back around. Which means it will likely go into the Gulf of Mexico. Fortunately, the eastern part of the Gulf is cool but the western part is not. It is also entirely possible for this storm to strike Florida 3 times, once this week, once on the loop back, and once on the western side. This storm’s path is one to remember.

  9. This has the potential to be a very expensive hurricane for the re-insurance industry if it runs up the coast as forecast, moving slowly. There is quite a bit in harms way – West Palm Beach to Jacksonville. Let’s hope not. But it could get pretty ugly. Stay safe everybody.

  10. Plenty of NOAA/NDBC buoy stations on Florida coast that record anemometer based wind speeds. Sustained surface winds determine actual damage. Surface wind speeds are always lower than speeds reported by the NHC which are estimates from aircraft.
    Another station to watch is Settlement Point, Bahamas (SPGF1) located on the east side of the storm path.
    The anemometer is 10 meters above the surface, currently showing sustained winds of 33 knots.

  11. Timo
    Does being lax (or not knowledgeable) about the rules exclude people who might have something useful, amusing or interesting to say from making their contribution? Yours doesn’t meet any of those tests.

  12. Live recon feed from Levi if interested. All applicable planes are on this page. Scroll down as appropriate. One has been delayed due to mechanical/maintenance issues.
    Considering the drop in pressure over the last 24 hrs. the odds of a CAT 5 are raised considerably IMHO.

  13. Sadly, some warmist clown is bound to say, “Hurrican Matthew is just more definitive proof of man made global warming.”
    Probably his Manniness has already said it.

      • Well if the Paris accord would stop hurricanes; I’d sign it. However, I’d be just as satisfied if the accord got rid of politicians.

      • Stopping hurricanes would probably be a bad thing for nature, not to mention impossible to achieve by limiting CO2.

  14. I’ve been following this thing on the page WUWTer LarryFine suggested:
    Matthew seems to be tracking to the east of the Florida coastal skimming models predictions. When I looked at the “model validation” section of a weather site I can’t find right now, I noticed that the previous failed models update to new failed models. It looks like the models have been consistently wrong on this storm, even in the short term.
    Is anyone doing model scoring where there is a running score of how correct or incorrect the models have been. It would be nice to name the geniuses and the goats. It’s mostly goats, I’m sure.

    • Models will never be perfect, however they can and do get better.
      The 5 day forecast in the current models is as good as the 3 day forecasts were 20 or so years ago.
      The two big types of problems with these models are first, insufficient input data and spacial resolution.
      More computing power helps to reduce the spacial resolution problem, spending more money on surface buoys and spotter planes can help, but we will quite probably never have enough data to make these models completely accurate.
      A lot of the differences between models is how they interpolate around the two problems I mentioned above.

      • “The 5 day forecast in the current models is as good as the 3 day forecasts were 20 or so years ago.”
        Not really. They often get many aspects wrong within 24 hours. 36 hours is nothing but a crap shoot.

      • Mark,

        The 5 day forecast in the current models is as good as the 3 day forecasts were 20 or so years ago.

        Five days ago, the 5 day forecast projected the hurricane coming up to my neck of the woods (SE Virginia) and had no predictions for a loop through the Atlantic and back to Florida at that time. Just sayin…

  15. What about the reports that surface wind readings aren’t matching the numbers that NOAA has been giving? Is there any truth to this?

    • What type of instrument is used to record wind speed at surface, where are they situated, and how many of them are there, especially from Haiti, to Cuba, through the Bahamas, etc.?

    • That is the problem with the modern measurement techniques, they do match the Historic record.
      So that we get much higher wind speeds being measured by the Satellites.
      Hence the call last year for a new Category 6, so the categorisation has changed quite drastically.
      I am not saying this is not a dangerous storm, but I do believe that they are not really the same as the older Cat 4 & 5 storms, because whenever they are measured on land or at sea they are now where near as powerful as the old ones. .

    • Observed fact.
      Wind speeds for Hermine were 20 knots lower than reported in NHC advisories. Both NDBC and the Tides and Currents web site records the anemometer data at the time of the storm may be checked at any time. Just about any tropical storm in the last few years, eg Sandy, shows the same pattern, recorded sustained winds are 10 to 20 knots lower than the NHC reported winds. When Mathew passed directly over NDBC station 42058 south of Haiti, the NHC claimed the winds were 125 knots, when the station data recorded maximum sustained winds of 67 knots.
      Either Tides and Currents or NOAA/NDBC stations in the path of Mathew can be checked in real time. The stations have reliable anemometers at known heights above the surface clearly stated. Regular land based weather stations usually show significantly lower wind speeds than offshore buoys nearby.

      • be carefull: Haiti uses the WMO standard 10 minute sustained values. They are ways lower then 1 minute sustained values. only the US uses the 1 minute sustained windspeed scale.

      • NDBC stations are NOAA, that’s the USA. The station just happens to be physically located 210 nautical miles south of Haiti.

    • What about the reports that surface wind readings aren’t matching the numbers that NOAA has been giving? Is there any truth to this?
      The airport on New Providence, Nassau, which is about 4 miles away from the West end…
      ….reported 92 mph winds with gusts

      • I’m certainly no expert (got that out of the way), but my understanding is that the wind speed readings represent wind speed at some altitude (flight level, 1,000 ft, not sure), but that they will always (or almost always) be lower at the surface due to friction, turbulence, etc. Happy to have this clarified if I am wrong.

  16. The East Coast of Florida is one of the most densely populated regions in the United States. There are 10’s of millions of people between Miami and Jacksonville. Any hurricane, even a category 2, that tracks up the East Coast of Florida like this would cause significant damage. This particular storm is going to be bad even if the eye stays off the coast.
    Of course, informed people know this.
    The shameful thing about it, however, is how Propagandists will use this very natural occurrence to push a political agenda. They have been eagerly waiting for something like this to come along, their mouths are salivating.
    I guarantee that all the Propaganda agencies, NBC, ABC, CBS, AP, CNN, etc…, etc…, are gearing up to spin this impending disaster as a product of AGW.
    Duh. Predicting this is like shooting fish in a barrel.
    In the aftermath of Matthew, brace yourself for a wicked Category 5 Propaganda-cane. I’ll think I’ll name her “Maleficent” since we’re in the “M’s”. You think Matthew is spinning, wait until you see Maleficent.
    Batten down the hatches! Propaganda-cane Maleficent is on her way and she’s headed straight for YOU!

    • haha here in belgium they are already doing that: “worse hurricane in 10 years time about to hit Florida”
      ummmmm not hard to tell that if there were 4000 days without any major hurricane landfalling the USA….
      however much luck for the people on it’s path it’s gonna be nasty

  17. About this storm getting dry air entrainment, well a little mid-latitude type system blew past me (neighboring state to the NW) and the dew points have dropped. We shall see what effects Nicole and this clipper type system have, if any.

    • I’m curious why the nullschool image does not show the two tropical waves southeast of the hurricanes? Any idea anyone?

  18. Promised a report back. About 1930 and dark. We were supposed to have Cat 1 by now, not happening yet. Strong TS with now continuous heavy rain. Really heavy rain. Darned balconies still not pressure washed for free, meaning gusts are still below 75mph. Windows totally salted up from major wave spume off the beach and coral reef; big cleaning tomorrow unless things worsen toward midnight. No power or water loss although we prepped for both. All in all, prepped for a non-event. Better safe than sorry.

  19. ristvan,
    Been reading throughout the day and saw your earlier post about your preparedness and reporting back if your router still had power. Thanks for the update, very interesting. My son flew down for a baseball tournament in Fort Meyers yesterday (great timing). Fortunately, they’re on the west coast. They played early and actually got their game in, but are probably just sitting and watching it rain now.

  20. I see this set of storm models also failed to deliver an accurate projection of the real world outcome. Modeling a chaotic system is frustrating, isn’t it.

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