A forecast model from the University of Michigan shows the potential for large percentages of Florida’s east coast to lose power – with the highest values near the coast.
Hurricane Matthew Power Outage Forecasts
Colors on the map below show the fraction of the population predicted to lose power at the census tract level. The total number of people predicted to lose power is shown in the figure legend.
Models can change quickly as the storm progresses. Visit nhc.noaa.gov for details on the storm and currently active storm warnings and advisories.
This model is current as of October 6, 2016 at 12 UTC (8AM EST).
Developed by Seth Guikema (University of Michigan), Steven Quiring (Ohio State University) and Brent McRoberts (Texas A & M University), this predictive model factors in a variety of data including:
- Hurricane track and intensity forecasts and wind speed estimates from the National Hurricane Center
- Population density data from the United States Census Bureau
- Tree data from the United States Department of Agriculture
- Drought indices from the National Drought Mitigation Center
- Soil moisture levels gathered by the University of Washington
The estimated number of outages has been stabilizing at 8-10 million in the last few model runs as the track and intensity forecast have begun to stabilize.
For a full-resolution version without the university logos click on the figure.
h/t to Capital Weather Gang