The latest model ensemble plots show that Matthew is likely to make landfall near Cape Canaveral, and then make a big loop out to sea, and backwards towards Florida. here are the 18Z model runs. Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says that up to 17 million people may be affected by Tropical Storm force wind gusts.
Added: NHC now has an essentially circular potential track cone due to this loopback, something I can’t ever recall seeing.
Link to .kmz file is here if you want to look at it in Google Earth yourself.
Do a right click and “save as”, complete download, double click it and it will open Google Earth (assuming you have it installed) . See the model output in “temporary places” folder in the left sidebar pane. Loads of data available that you can enable and disable with checkboxes.
Dr. Maue did a population impact analysis:
Worst case scenario with eye wall skirting the coast:
He adds commentary about the loopback:
Note: Some minor spelling, grammar, and punctuation errors were corrected within an hour of publication