Worse: Latest #Matthew spaghetti models show landfall near Cape Canaveral, and loopback 4-5+ days, millions affected

The latest model ensemble plots show that Matthew is likely to make landfall near Cape Canaveral, and then make a big loop out to sea, and backwards towards Florida. here are the 18Z model runs. Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue says that up to 17 million people may be affected by Tropical Storm force wind gusts.

10-06-16-matthew-18z-spaghetti-plots-fl-zoom 10-06-16-matthew-18z-spaghetti-plots 10-06-16-matthew-18z-spaghetti-plots-radar 10-06-16-matthew-18z-spaghetti-plots-satellite

Added: NHC now has an essentially circular potential track cone due to this loopback, something I can’t ever recall seeing.

mathew-circular-nhc

Link to .kmz file is here if you want to look at it in Google Earth yourself.

Do a right click and “save as”, complete download, double click it and it will open Google Earth (assuming you have it installed) . See the model output in “temporary places” folder in the left sidebar pane. Loads of data available that you can enable and disable with checkboxes.

Dr. Maue did a population impact analysis:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784097047641198592

Worst case scenario with eye wall skirting the coast:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784102864234901504

He adds commentary about the loopback:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/784098871337189377

Note: Some minor spelling, grammar, and punctuation errors were corrected within an hour of publication

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Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 12:15 pm

I like you guys when you’re not obsessed with slamming AGW or renewable energy.

Kerry
Reply to  Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 12:21 pm

I mostly see very sensible, scientific discussion of very specific weaknesses of the “catastrophic” AGW hypothesis and renewable energy on this website. That is not “slamming” in my opinion.

Reply to  Kerry
October 6, 2016 12:37 pm

No, slamming is the perfect word. I also like this site for it’s offbeat and challenging style, but the continual right wing criticism of science does get a bit wearing. However, on stuff like this Hurricane threatening Florida, the site is extremely good.

Ged
Reply to  Kerry
October 6, 2016 12:47 pm

I completely disagree, Gareth. Challenging conclusions and the assumptions behind them is part of the very core of science. This site posts and uses evidence and information in its discussions, not political ideology or conjecture. If you consider that a “slam”, then that should inform you as to the shoddiness of the work being examined.

RWturner
Reply to  Kerry
October 6, 2016 12:53 pm

Right wing criticism of science? I used consider myself a moderate democrat, then democrats stopped thinking, so now I just consider myself an independent for fear of being lumped in with them.

Brian
Reply to  Kerry
October 6, 2016 1:03 pm

Criticism of bad science (Democrat also).

MarkW
Reply to  Kerry
October 6, 2016 1:26 pm

Fascinating how you assume that it’s right wing slamming of science?
Just how is pointing out the flaws in the computer models and data collection, right wing?
I thought science was science.
Now AGW is more politics than science, maybe that’s your problem.

Reply to  Kerry
October 6, 2016 2:51 pm

Amen, brother. We don’t want to spend oodles of money accomplishing nothing and live like paupers or 1st millenium people.

John
Reply to  Kerry
October 6, 2016 6:10 pm

Correct Kerry!

brians356
Reply to  Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 12:41 pm

The AGW hoax represents a grave threat to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. And “extremism in defense of liberty is no vice.” Being “obsessed with slamming AGW” is a virtue for any American. Where do you live?

Reply to  Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 12:49 pm

Hi Sir Harry
Sceptics are slamming AGW’s nonsensical science.
AGW advocates propose slamming, imprisoning (and even worse) of sceptics.
Where do you stand?

Reply to  vukcevic
October 6, 2016 12:55 pm

The slamming bit is the right wing crew obsessed with squeezing climate science into a right wing agenda. How often have we seen the terms “warmunist” and legitimate concerns used as a criticism against Obama? Even now posters are using the site to promote Trump for President. That’s the sort of stuff that can get tedious. The science itself is always welcome.

KenW
Reply to  vukcevic
October 6, 2016 12:59 pm

yea, freedom of thought can get messy at times…..

Bryan A
Reply to  vukcevic
October 6, 2016 2:31 pm

Quote Gareth Phillips

The slamming bit is the right wing crew obsessed with squeezing climate science into a right wing agenda. How often have we seen the terms “warmunist” and legitimate concerns used as a criticism against Obama? Even now posters are using the site to promote Trump for President. That’s the sort of stuff that can get tedious. The science itself is always welcome.

I’ll guarantee you that the term “Warmunist” hasn’t been used as a criticism against Pres. B. O. nearly 1/4 as much as the term “Denialist” has been used as a highly negative criticism against Climate Realists

bobl
Reply to  vukcevic
October 6, 2016 4:03 pm

Warmunist? You mean the natural response from a decade of being called a “Den!er”

arthur4563
Reply to  Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 1:02 pm

In case you haven’t noticed, some renewable energy (wind , solar) is a scam. It fully deserves to be critiqued, something the greenies and media are incapable of doing. To listen to those folks, solar/wind is cheap and equivalent to a reliable power technology. That, my friend, is an absurd and obscene lie.
If we were in court, they would be guilty of perjury.

brians356
Reply to  arthur4563
October 6, 2016 1:18 pm

And also in case you haven’t noticed, the renewable energy scam is heavily subsidized by the government, and AGW hoax promoted by the government, and only one of the two major political parties is largely responsible. So it is impossible to decouple renewable energy and climate science from politics here.

Richard Keen
Reply to  Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 1:16 pm

Yeah, I like Scientific American when they’re not obsessed with ramming AGW down our throats.
Sadly, it’s been a while.

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  Richard Keen
October 6, 2016 2:53 pm

I like the New Scientist when they are not doing the same thing. New science and new anti-science don’t mix well.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 1:22 pm

And we like you trolls when you are – somewhere else.

usexpat
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
October 6, 2016 2:43 pm

While I disagree with his opinion, he’s hardly a troll for stating it.

MarkW
Reply to  Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 1:25 pm

So long as we aren’t pointing out your lies and weaknesses, you like us.
Gee whiz, that’s nice of you.

Doonman
Reply to  Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 1:33 pm

And we like you guys when you’re not obsessed with putting your hands in our pockets.

Mike the Morlock
Reply to  Sir Harry
October 6, 2016 3:26 pm

Sir Harry, Gareth Phillips, These posts are about a dangerous hurricane. The people here a concerned about friends, loved ones, and acquaintances in its path. Yet you come here peddling your self-serving sanctimonious CAGW drivel. My thoughts for you you, are that it would be for the best to all if you go pound sand in your a$$
Note: to those here my brother and his wife are in Florida on vacation I am a bit concerned so please excuse my bluntness.

Phil R
Reply to  Mike the Morlock
October 6, 2016 5:24 pm

MtM,
Agree. it’s astounding that these idiots would take advantage of an emerging catastrophe to make political points. then again, no it’s not. it’s par for the course (which Obama is intimately familiar with–hitting the links in times of crisis).
Also, my son is in Florida too, just flew down yesterday. Fortunately, he’s on the west coast where it looks more like rain and strong breezes. Hope your brother and his wife are safe. (effin’ mor@ns.)

Brian
Reply to  Mike the Morlock
October 6, 2016 5:24 pm

I sincerely hope that they emerge unscathed with a story that will thrill the family around your holiday table.

Phil R
Reply to  Mike the Morlock
October 6, 2016 6:43 pm

Brian,
Thank you for the comment and concern. They won their first game today, but not sure how many they will get in over the weekend. As noted, they’re on the west side so won’t get the worst of it, but I’m sure they’ll come back with some stories. (Timing really sucked, though.)

Reply to  Mike the Morlock
October 7, 2016 4:46 am

We all have loved ones in the path. For me, a Brother, sister, mother and aunt. Just got word from my sister (who is with my mother) they are over in Orlando at a Hampton inn. I am very worried about my aunt – paraplegic in Vero Beach. I have not heard from her in the past 24 hours.

Latitude
October 6, 2016 12:16 pm

I hope people have enough sense to realize no model shows a loopback as a hurricane

u.k(us)
Reply to  Latitude
October 6, 2016 1:03 pm

I assume you are not in the current “cone” ??

Latitude
Reply to  u.k(us)
October 6, 2016 2:39 pm

just got out of it….it’s that kind of ridiculous hype that turns people off

Ged
Reply to  Latitude
October 6, 2016 1:11 pm

If it goes back over the area that is strengthening it now, in five days, could that strengthen it again?

James J Strom
Reply to  Ged
October 6, 2016 1:25 pm

The hurricane will have cooled the waters significantly on its first pass, making conditions less friendly to hurricane formation or strengthening.

Reply to  Ged
October 6, 2016 4:28 pm

No, shear that is forecast to impact the storm is more this issue of what will choke off Matthews str

Reply to  Latitude
October 6, 2016 3:23 pm

trusting models?

October 6, 2016 12:19 pm

That is a slight change from the 11am path. This one is vexing all the Meteorologists.

Cam
October 6, 2016 12:20 pm

And Hurricane Nicole is churning away south of Bermuda and not expected to move much. I expect this will keep Matthew from moving out into the Atlantic when it finally turns to the north east.

Arbeegee
October 6, 2016 12:31 pm

Is this the stroke of luck we need to rescue those astronauts marooned in space?
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0064639/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_35

Arbeegee
Reply to  Arbeegee
October 6, 2016 1:45 pm

…For the young’ums: In Marooned, with only minutes to spare, NASA is about to send a rescue shuttle when a massive hurricane bearing down on Cape Canaveral shuts it all down. So what did they do…?

Jim132
Reply to  Arbeegee
October 7, 2016 5:35 am

I was JUST thinking of that movie. I saw it as a kid but did not remember the title.

Bryan A
October 6, 2016 12:34 pm

Not sure it is so much an obsession with slamming AGW or renewables as much as it is an obsession with the truth about their respective accuracy and reliability. Certainly Florida would stand a strong likelihood of a State Wide outage ala South Australia were they as dependant on renewables as that state. Fortunately for Florida though they have very little reliance on Renewables at the moment
http://d342k2t1ugg5gi.cloudfront.net/resources/20150319111336/FPL-Florida-fuel-mix-chart.jpg
Source https://floridasolardesigngroup.com/floridas-energy-mix-is-a-concern-for-the-future/
Though the “7% Purchased Power” could have an effect on Grid Stability depending on which assets are affected.
Unfortunately with a population of 22M and estimates of up to 17M affected, the state residents are in for a big whooping.
Further, with the estimate of almost 9M W/O power that is alomst 1/2 and could, in itself, cause some grid instability
Fortunately for the state though, more then 92% of their electric mix is Fossil Based whose output can be adjusted quickly to maintain stability factors

bobl
Reply to  Bryan A
October 6, 2016 4:17 pm

You can’t really build breakables in tropical/subtropical zones. The Cyclones have ways to break windmills and solar panels even if they are stowed away. The SA storm was less than CAT 1 wind gusts in the areas that the damage happened although it did have 140kph (CAT 2) size wind gusts in other areas. It was I suppose a Sandy level storm, sub cyclonic but not much.
When you look at tree damage though it really wasn’t that strong – compared to say Brisbane’s regular storms every couple of years which reach CAT 3 speed winds, tend to flatten the treescape but don’t wipeout the state grid.
SA being in a temperate area wasn’t prepared for a cyclone level storm.
For those in Florida – Batten down the hatches, pull out your storm plans, and see you in a day or too.

Joe Crawford
Reply to  Bryan A
October 7, 2016 9:00 am

Don’t think I’d invest in any wind turbans in Florida. Well… maybe just one, a small one on the stern rail of my sail boat. But that one never had to lived in Florida during hurricane season.

ptolemy2
October 6, 2016 12:36 pm

10 posts on this hurricane forecast in the last 3 days! Every time a gust of wind approaches the US the posting gets obsessive. And as always, when it makes landfall it will only be a tropical storm and all the doom-monger pundits will as always explain that even tropical storms can be excitingly dangerous.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  ptolemy2
October 6, 2016 1:06 pm

Perhaps you should be on the beach as Matthew comes ashore. If you are so sure of your statement, why aren’t you there?

ptolemy2
Reply to  ptolemy2
October 6, 2016 1:40 pm

Tom
Email me the flight ticket and I’ll be on the next plane

Reply to  ptolemy2
October 6, 2016 2:36 pm

Too late; it couldn’t land until Matthew is gone.

Phil R
Reply to  ptolemy2
October 6, 2016 5:27 pm

Typical liberal. expecting someone else to pick up the tab.

Nigel in Santa Barbara
October 6, 2016 12:46 pm

Has a the same hurricane ever struck the same place twice?

Reply to  Nigel in Santa Barbara
October 6, 2016 12:52 pm

Yes – twice in the 60’s and once in the 70’s. I heard about that yesterday.

KenW
Reply to  Nigel in Santa Barbara
October 6, 2016 1:00 pm

not sure but TS Allison circled SE Texas a few times before moving out.

Walter Sobchak
October 6, 2016 12:53 pm

According to Google Earth Matthew and Nicole are about 840 mi apart. Why are they not converging?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect

KenW
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
October 6, 2016 1:17 pm

evidently Matthew and Nicole don’t read Wikipedia…..

tetris
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
October 6, 2016 1:54 pm

They don’t get along…

Bryan A
Reply to  Walter Sobchak
October 6, 2016 2:34 pm

It would be beneficial for Nicole to sap some of Matthews strength though. Must be sibling rivalry

RWturner
October 6, 2016 12:59 pm

I like how one model just said “f*ck it, it’s going straight”. I wonder, in that model, would the current storm system in the center of the country incorporate the tropical storm.

Reply to  RWturner
October 6, 2016 4:32 pm

you don’t understand how some of those models work, do you?

Robert W Turner
Reply to  JKrob
October 6, 2016 9:22 pm

Some of the models but not the other models, you do?

Reply to  JKrob
October 7, 2016 3:20 am

Yes, as a matter of fact, I do. The straight line you are referring to is the XTRP model or, simply, ‘Extrapolation’ of the current course of the storm. It is useful for some situations, others (like a strongly curving track), not so useful … but it is displayed anyway. (see http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_14.gif). All of the other models are a variety of dynamical, statistical or a combination of both. This is an exhaustive list with brief description. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Bear
October 6, 2016 1:01 pm

IDK, the Bahamas are going to get slammed twice if this loop happens and then where is Matthew going to go? If it gets into the Gulf look out.
Oh, and you know this is going to all be blamed on Gorebull warming.

Bryan A
Reply to  Bear
October 6, 2016 2:40 pm

Well of course it is…Don b rediculus … Climate change is what caused the polar troughs to extend so low toward the south and accutely reverse north and it is that same polar trough which will steer Matthew NE along the coast. What Nicole does and where she is at the time will determine where Matthew goes after visiting WallyWorld in Florida

TA
October 6, 2016 1:06 pm

It looks like Florida and environs is going to get slammed pretty hard by Matthew. I hope everyone concerned is taking the proper precautions. Joe Bastardi was describing a pretty disturbing scenario of upcoming events just a few minutes ago on the Sean Hannity radio show.

J McClure
October 6, 2016 1:18 pm

What? CNN just reported parts of south eastern Florida will be hit by 20-40 foot waves.
That’s absurd unless this is a Sharknado event.

Phil R
Reply to  J McClure
October 6, 2016 5:29 pm

No, it’s absurd because it’s CNN.

October 6, 2016 1:21 pm

No doubt the storm to hit Florida is a serious matter but all of the panicky superlatives being touted in the press should only scare the childern. The Gulf and East coast have ALWAYS had to deal with Hurricanes. Cuba, Haiti, and Bermuda are regularly bashed by them. What bothers me is how the lack of any historical knowledge or experience has made it possible for the press to turn these things into “SUPERBOWLS OF DOOM”. Fifty years ago the public would know that a bad storm was happening and that there was some danger to ordinary folk in that location. The report would occupy about 3-4 minutes on the nightly news unless something genuinely unique occurred. The huge failure of the power grid would be treated as the fault of piss poor planning by government and utilities not some necessary consequence of the sort of storms that happen in Florida from time to time. That said ptolemy2 it is the first Hurricane in quite awhile and meteorologists like Anthony likely to be fascinated at the new critter that came out to play

Marc DePeel
October 6, 2016 1:27 pm

In 1985 Juan hit the Louisiana coast twice, looping around in the Gulf of Mexico. I was in New Orleans when it hit. The winds were not bad, and as I remember it was mostly a tropical storm, but the rain flooded a major part of the metropolitan area, especially the West Bank.

Theyouk
October 6, 2016 1:37 pm

Interesting to watch the station reports in real time. Freetown (just east of Freeport in the Bahamas) *looks* like it’s about 25-30 miles from the eye at present and squarely in the bull’s eye of Matthew’s path. Winds currently easterly at 56 mph (and have been for the last hour or so). No doubt the wind will increase toward the eye, but this layman is a bit skeptical about Matthew making landfall in FL as a Cat 4 (ground level winds). Thoughts?

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  Theyouk
October 6, 2016 2:44 pm

Theyouk, could you leave us a link to the Freetown station so we can all see?
Incidentally, I’ve been watching http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh2.html and the track looks to be well north of north-west, perhaps 345 degrees. So the eye could miss Florida yet. I hope so, for the sake of the Florid People, and also for the sake of the continuing drought!
Rich.

Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 6, 2016 3:08 pm

The eye appears to be over Freeport–winds just dropped from 100 to 81 in the last 15 mins.

Gonzo
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 6, 2016 3:24 pm

Current wind speeds at Sebastian Inlet are 15-20mph at 6pm EST time. Lake Worth,FL 25-30mph currently.Port Everglade 15-20mph This is from NOAA stations real time
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pvgf1

Reply to  See - owe to Rich
October 6, 2016 3:30 pm

Very hard to find reliable wind reporting in this area. TWC is showing weird numbers for Freeport (problems with 3-digit speeds?), and WU shows as being ‘offline’ the last 31 hrs–yet is still reporting winds of 97, gusting to 121.

October 6, 2016 1:56 pm

The global synoptic maps are showing unusually high pressure in the upper part of the northern hemisphere which is forcing the jet stream tracks into large equatorward distortions.
If Matthew does loop back in such an unusual manner then that will be the reason.
Such distortions of the jet streams are associated with periods of low solar activity which appear to warm the stratosphere above the poles thereby lowering tropopause height at the poles which forces the entire global air circulation system towards the equator.

October 6, 2016 4:42 pm

In case nobody is aware, there is a fairly important piece of equipment right in the path of Hurricane Matthew at Cape Canaveral…the new NOAA GOES-R satellite is there to be (hopefully) launched in a few weeks (Nov. 4th).
http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/lockheed-martin-organizations/noaas-goes-r-weather-satellite-delivered-astrotech-final-processing/
Let us hope the satellite is not damaged & the spaceport damage is minimal.

October 6, 2016 4:48 pm

Mods – I’ve tried twice to post a message concerning NOAA’s GOES-R satellite @Cape Canaveral but it is not posting…WUWT???

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