Yesterday, WUWT covered the sharp drop in global temperatures that followed the peak of the 2015/16 El Niño. That caught the interest of John B from Toronto, and he writes in with a graph he has rendered that illustrates correlation of many climate metrics. While it is true that “correlation is not causation” it can also be said that correlation is well worth investigating further.
Thought you might be interested in this plot I made. I’m not a climate scientist, but I have more than 15 years experience in signal analysis.
Coding is done by me using .NET with GDI graphics.
PS. I have done this in my spare time out of curiosity and to facilitate a personal understanding of whats going on. I have no interest in fame, fortune, politics or activism.
Click for a much larger image at 1920×1080 pixels. An even larger 3840×2160 (HD 4k) image is also available here. You really need to look at this graph in magnified form to get the details.
Note that the intensity of the red and green colors used to depict ENSO events (El Niño in red and La Niña in green) varies with the strength of the event. Note also that the Average Absolution Deviation of El Niño is +0.41 while La Niña is -0.27. This indicates warming events due to El Niño and in greater magnitude than cooling events due to La Niña, hence we have a cumulative heat growth from El Niño events during the period in the graph.
Links to data sources used in the graph:
Water Vapor: ftp://ftp.remss.com/vapor/
Temperature Lower Tropasphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt
Global Carbon Budget: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/GCP/
CO2ppm to CO2Gtonnes https://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45