Claim: climate change to make Middle East ‘uninhabitable’, spur mass exodus

From MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT and the “where are those other 50 million climate refugees predicted years ago?” department. Ooops, they were disappeared from the Internet when the claim didn’t pan out.

middle-east-spires

Plagued by heat and dust: Desert dust storms such as here in Kuwait could occur more often in the Middle East and North Africa as a result of climate change. In addition, temperatures on very hot days could rise to 50 degrees Celsius on average in the region (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. CREDIT Molly John, Flickr, Creative Commons

Climate-exodus expected in the Middle East and North Africa
Part of the Middle East and North Africa may become uninhabitable due to climate change

More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa – a region which is very hot in summer and where climate change is already evident. The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970. “In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy,” says Jos Lelieveld, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and Professor at the Cyprus Institute.

Lelieveld and his colleagues have investigated how temperatures will develop in the Middle East and North Africa over the course of the 21st century. The result is deeply alarming: Even if Earth’s temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold. By mid-century, during the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees at night, and during daytime they could rise to 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit). By the end of the century, midday temperatures on hot days could even climb to 50 degrees Celsius (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit). Another finding: Heat waves could occur ten times more often than they do now.

By mid-century, 80 instead of 16 extremely hot days

In addition, the duration of heat waves in North Africa and the Middle East will prolong dramatically. Between 1986 and 2005, it was very hot for an average period of about 16 days, by mid-century it will be unusually hot for 80 days per year. At the end of the century, up to 118 days could be unusually hot, even if greenhouse gas emissions decline again after 2040. “If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections,” says Panos Hadjinicolaou, Associate Professor at the Cyprus Institute and climate change expert.

Atmospheric researcher Jos Lelieveld is convinced that climate change will have a major impact on the environment and the health of people in these regions. “Climate change will significantly worsen the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa. Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate,” says Jos Lelieveld.

The research team recently also published findings on the increase of fine particulate air pollution in the Middle East. It was found that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and in Syria has increased by up to 70 percent since the beginning of this century. This is mainly attributable to an increase of sand storms as a result of prolonged droughts. It is expected that climate change will contribute to further increases, which will worsen environmental conditions in the area.

In the now published study, Lelieveld and his colleagues first compared climate data from 1986 to 2005 with predictions from 26 climate models over the same time period. It was shown that the measurement data and model predictions corresponded extremely well, which is why the scientists used these models to project climate conditions for the period from 2046 to 2065 and the period from 2081 to 2100.

Largest temperature increase in already hot summers

The researchers based their calculations on two future scenarios: The first scenario, called RCP4.5, assumes that the global emissions of greenhouse gases will start decreasing by 2040 and that the Earth will be subjected to warming by 4.5 Watt per square meter by the end of the century. The RCP4.5 scenario roughly corresponds to the target set at the most recent UN climate summit, which means that global warming should be limited to less than two degrees Celsius.

The second scenario (RCP8.5) is based on the assumption that greenhouse gases will continue to increase without further limitations. It is therefore called the “business-as-usual scenario”. According to this scenario, the mean surface temperature of the Earth will increase by more than four degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.

In both scenarios, the strongest rise in temperature in the Middle East and North Africa is expected during summer, when it is already very hot, and not during winter, which is more common in other parts of the globe. This is primarily attributed to a desert warming amplification in regions such as the Sahara. Deserts do not buffer heat well, which means that the hot and dry surface cannot cool by the evaporation of ground water. Since the surface energy balance is controlled by heat radiation, the greenhouse effect by gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor will increase disproportionately.

Regardless of which climate change scenario will become reality: both Lelieveld and Hadjinicolaou agree that climate change can result in a significant deterioration of living conditions for people living in North Africa and the Middle East, and consequently, sooner or later, many people may have to leave the region.

###

Original publications

Jos Lelieveld, Yiannis Proestos, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Meryem Tanarhte, Evangelos Tyrlis und Georgios Zittis

Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century

Climatic Change, 23 April 2016; doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6

Klaus Klingmüller, Andrea Pozzer, Swen Metzger, Georgiy L. Stenchikov und Jos Lelieveld

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22 April 2016; doi:10.5194/acp-16-5063-2016

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118 thoughts on “Claim: climate change to make Middle East ‘uninhabitable’, spur mass exodus

  1. Do you know the funniest part? They are using projections RCP8.5 for their climatic predictions. In this projection, as Judith Curry explained, in order to create the ridiculously high carbon emissions leading to it, there is a huge population increase in Africa. So they are basically saying that if there is a huge population increase in Africa, the region will be uninhabitable. Pure logic at play.

      • ” Deserts do not buffer heat well, which means that the hot and dry surface cannot cool by the evaporation of ground water. Since the surface energy balance is controlled by heat radiation, the greenhouse effect by gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor will increase disproportionately.”

        This may be the funniest paragraph in the whole press release. Deserts being hot during the day relative to other biomes has nothing to do with green house gases re-emitting IR near the surface, but rather the LACK OF the most important gas, water vapor. This causes there to be very little latent heat in the desert and far less heat capacity in the air itself, and that is why the absolute temperature rises so much.

        That’s also why deserts cool off so quickly at night, because there is no water on/in the ground or in the air for high heat capacity and release at night, and no water vapor in the air to absorb the IR.

        Furthermore, the surface of the desert has high albedo, reflecting visible light directly back out to space without passing go.

        All of these factors combine to actually create a net radiation LOSS over the Sahara Desert. The desert conditions are maintained by sinking cool dry air (Horse Latitudes) which creates high pressure.

        Did I miss the part in this where CO2 becomes important at all? Maybe I need to scrap textbooks for climate scripture?

      • Atmospheric water vapour deficiencies in the Horse Latitudes increases solar near infrared heating of the surface, because water vapour has strong absorption bands in the near infrared. Solar NIR is around 49% of the total heating effect of the Sun.
        http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Earth

      • At the present rate of greening, perhaps the deserts will no longer be deserts.

        This cherry picked number is expected…
        ===============
        “The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970.”
        ===============
        What since the ice age scare? How did they achieve this number? Is it only from continuously active stations? Let us see what they get with stations that go back 100 years. Did they take UHI into account?

  2. That’s the way to deal with the terror organizations there – emit more CO2 and they all die… by the midcentury as the models predict…

  3. I thought the Middle East was already uninhabitable, although I didn’t think it had anything to do with climate change.

    • I lived in the Middle Easy and in summer it is uninhabitable unless you’ve go aircon which everyone does. No worries about it getting to 50C though. There’s a law that the outside labor force gets off work if it hits 50C so it never does.

      • expat.
        m 50 – not much.
        Last time in Dubai dry dock, about 2008-09, it was 50 and – anecdotally – nearly 55 ‘up the coast’

        AC Helps.
        A cold beer helps – but it is still bloooooming hot.

        Auto

      • Auto
        My post was sarcasm. It gets way hot but folks in charge want the work to get done so the “official” temp only goes to 49C. The UAE in summer is hellish hot, humid, and the air is full of dirt. Kuwait is worse if possible. Most of the world over there have some great laws and even better ways of getting around them. It’s all about face……..and money.

  4. what would solve the problem is low cost energy so they could desalinate, irrigate and air-condition.

    or the return to ice age conditions.

    • Ferdberple, the Middle East already has low cost energy. What exactly are you considering?

  5. Regarding the 50 million “climate refugees”, in Feb. 2011 AAAS simply moved the goalposts to 2020. Still not one has appeared. Maybe they should start paying people to be “climate refugees”.

    • There was one person that tried the climate refugee caper in the courts of New Zealand and failed quite rightly.

      • I just read an article this morning (can’t find the link now) where Alarmists are claiming some native American indians living on a small island in a lake in Louisiana are the first climate change refugees.

        The island the Indians live on is sinking for a number of reasons, not connected to CO2, but the Alarmists are calling them climate change refugees.

        Obama is spending something like $48 million to move the 25 families off the island, and is explaining the expenditure as due to climate change. The first such instance, known, I believe.

      • He, an over-stayer so in effect was an illegal migrant and should have gone home, after many appeals, tried that claim as a last ditch attempt to stay in NZ. It failed as we know. Sadly for his kids, I think they were all deported. I have been through the immigration process in many countries including New Zealand and Australia and the main things that stands out in the process are…don’t lie on your application and don’t try to cheat the system, you WILL fail! I know people who have had their visa revoked and/or been deported due to inaccuracies in their application (Applicants have to sign a stat-dec) and I remind all new friends who are applying for a visa not to hide anything that may affect their application and bide by the rules. It’s not a question of *IF* immigration find you but when! Some are lucky and get away with it for years, but, eventually you will be caught!

  6. I for one do not believe in the global warming BS, just the huge increase in population because of modern medicine is causing millions of economic refugees already looking for a better life in Europe, even down here in OZ they tried to come in their thousands. Big problem they want the benefits of a developed country but not our way of life[incompatable differences] and we are meant to change for them. We down here much like yanks can only be pushed so far then we get pissed off, some time later we get very annoyed, then after a bit of agitation we fix the problem. It is not easy with the PC crowd in control, but I think that America will show us the way forward with a rebel president.

    • I love my Australian friend. You said it, the (incompatable differences) no let’s put that in caps, INCOMPATIBLE DIFFERENCES WITH A CULTURE so contrary to western culture and Judeo/Christian values that this is truly a case were East meets West and calamity develops like a tornedo. These two cultures need to stay away from each other.

      • As we say in Australia (Part of the immigration/citizenship process is to ACCEPT the Australian way!)…”If you don’t like our way of life F%$@ off back to where you came from!” Of course, they never do esp those on the receiving end of taxpayer funded welfare.

  7. instead of climate refugees what they got instead was Merkel refugees. Merkel welcomed economic refugees by the millions for the New Years GroperFest. German women became the latest victims of the Politically Correct speak, as police and news forces remained silent for days afterwards. Except for Social Media the story would never have gotten out. You cannot criticize refugees, that would make you racist.

    • I wouldn’t even call them refugees. This is an invasion – which the elite in a moment of cowardice of historical proportions insists on calling a refugee crisis.

      • The Koran teaches MusIims to invade other people’s lands and take them over. It even has a name, the Hijra, the emigration.

        Quote:
        Do they not see how we invade their lands and diminish their borders? Koran 13: 40.

        R

      • Ralf,

        Are you using Michael Mann as your religious consultant? Or maybe someone is “homogenizing” the data for you?

        Here is verse 13:40 from the Quran:

        “Whether We let thee see something of that which We have promised them, or make thee die (before its happening), thine is but conveyance (of the message). Ours the reckoning.”

        http://corpus.quran.com/translation.jsp?chapter=13&verse=40

      • Ralf,

        And not to let your religious misunderstandings be compounded: Hegira was the flight of Mohamed from Mecca, an Arabian city, to Medina, another Arabian city, to escape persecution. Nothing to do with taking someone’s land. Mohamed later returned to Mecca, taking it back from his tormentors. Again nothing to do with invading someone else’s land/country.

  8. The puppet masters long ago decided that daily content for media pulsing of the climate scare message was more important than quality. That tactic plays into the publication mill strategy for promotion at most academic institutions if the quality controls lapse or if the risk-reward balance is tipped away from being professionally refuted later as science or simple fact checking moves along. After all, who is going to attempt to fire tenured faculty after the whole scare era ends. They simply fade away—with the money.

  9. “Lelieveld and his colleagues first compared climate data from 1986 to 2005 with predictions from 26 climate models over the same time period. It was shown that the measurement data and model predictions corresponded extremely well…”

    Really? Since when do climate models correspond to reality?

    The “temperature rise” that is driving “mass exodus” from the Middle East has nothing to do with CO2. Except for the CO2 emitted by our drones as they fly over and send hellfire missiles whooshing down chimneys across Syria, Iraq, Libya, and the entire area.

    People are exodusing out of the region because there are massive regional civil wars raging.

    • Ah, but they were also told to go out and multiply in European countries, take their women, and take of the countries. There is no other way to explain the high proportion of young, military age males in these unarmed invaders. Imams have been instructing them on what to do and they are doing it well.

      • Higley7,

        You vastly over-estimate the “central planning” capabilities of the immigrants.

        Consider the US’s illegal immigrant situation: we are flooded with thousands of Latin American Catholics over our southern border every day. They pour into our country and suck up our generous welfare, education, health care, and other benefits. They establish ethnic centers of population and religion. They illegally register and vote in our elections.

        Do you think their preachers and priests told them to do this? Hint: No.

        When a weakness in a developed country is found, it will be exploited by the third world masses seeking stability and opportunity.

        The masses of immigrants from the Middle East and Africa into Europe are moving to escape the brutal civil wars raging across the region. They take the path of least resistance. It’s the psychology of crowds–not the result of “imams planning.”

      • It doesn’t take much of a web search to find records of Imams telling muslims to invade and overwhelm non-muslim countries.

    • Kent Clizbe @ May 4, 2016 8:47 am (also 6:31 am):
      Admirable, well done argument based on reason and evidence. Unfortunately, the expectation that argument based on reason and evidence will have any influence upon those who maintain that “their Big Guy In The Sky is imaginary, but ours is real” is about as realistic as teaching your dog algebra.

      • Fascinating how atheists assume that they are the only ones who know what the truth is and that everyone else is an unthinking idiot.
        At the same time, they will go on and on about how tolerant they are, and it’s those unthinking religious people who can’t put up with people who are different.

      • 1. of course this people 7ys up have smartphones with Google maps and social nets for flash Mobs.

        2. of course german aktivists bring them print outs in arabic letters, cards with marked fences and the route on the Balkan.

        They know when crossing the river under the bridge, some distances they do requiring the whole highway – after all the fascists have nothing to say.

        3. and so the activists enforce them to break down the fences – after all. ..
        ___________________

        activists could help them already on the balkan but their peers are in germany so why stay for the evening abroad.

    • kentclizbe, it appears that these “scientists” used CMIP5 results.

      CMIP5 was a project started in 2008 to support the IPCC’s development of its Fifth Assessment Report in 2013. Consequently, all models run for CMIP5 began after 2005, and obviously used climate model backcasting methodology to “align” their model parameters with historical data before setting off to make projections of the future climate.
      http://cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/

      So it is hardly surprising that these “scientists” identified that the model results corresponded well to historical data. That is because the modellers had all that historical data to do their backcasting with.

      However, backcasting is not an acceptable methodology for model verification and validation. Without model verification and validation, climate models are just expensive computer games.

  10. Ugh more linear nonsense.

    What ever conditions are prevalent at the time of a study are sources of extrapolated doom as if things never vary or change.

    The middle east has been as it is since before Genghis Khan, and are the same now, all of a sudden it will be uninhabitable.

    Complete garbage no doubt based on spurious fudged models that fudge start conditions and then perform a linear extrapolation to produce utter tripe.

    • Probably the most shocking example of the alarmist rent-seekers’ linear extrapolation is here:

      http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129652700

      In 2010, the egregious climate-scammer, Lonnie Thompson–who jets around the world on the taxpayers’ dime, collecting samples from glaciers–jetted off to Indonesia (did he stop in Bali? Bet he did!).

      Let’s let NPR tell the story. Lonnie and his band of climate lackeys “… spent two weeks in Indonesia atop a glacier called Puncak Jaya, one of the few remaining tropical glaciers in the world. They were taking samples of ice cores to study the impacts of climate change on the glacier.”

      NPR gasps with shock, as they describe Lonnie’s shock, “…what he witnessed shocked him: The glacier was literally melting under their feet.”

      Oh no! 4 degrees off the equator–the shock should actually be that THERE IS A LONG-LASTING GLACIER at that latitude! But no, that wouldn’t fit Lonnie’s and NPR’s agenda.

      Instead, Lonnie continues “…this trip was unusual. It was the first one where he experienced rain on the glacier every day.”

      Wow! Rain! On top of a mountain towering over a tropical rain forest on the equator! Whoa! Call Michael Mann!

      Lonnie, his alarm clearly rising, reports: “Rain is probably the most effective way to … cause the ice to melt,” Thompson says. “So this was the first time you could see the surface actually lowering around you.”

      And now Lonnie springs his linear extrapolation trap–sucking in all the gullible alarmists: Lonnie said, that he and his entourage “…witnessed the glacier drop 12 inches in just two weeks.”

      What could be next? Right you are! Linear extrapolation! Here it is, out of the mouth of this grant-guzzling schemer.

      Lonnie said, “…If that’s representative of the annual ice loss on these glaciers,” he says, “you’re looking at losing over seven meters of ice in a year. Unfortunately, that glacier’s going to disappear in as little as five years if that rate continues.”

      IF THAT RATE CONTINUES!

      Well, Lonnie, here we are, “six years later.”

      How’s Puncak Jaya doing? Let’s check: the weather forecast for Puncak Jaya calls for around 5 feet of snow–IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS!

      http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Puncak-Jaya/forecasts/4884

      Lonnie, if that rate of snowfall continues, the glacier will be 6 miles deep in about 5 years!

      • Talk about total BS from Lonnie. I have spent some time on glaciers in Iceland. It either rains or you get dense fog on the glaciers almost every day.

      • “Unfortunately, that glacier’s going to disappear in as little as five years if that rate continues” and then –
        “Lonnie, if that rate of snowfall continues, the glacier will be 6 miles deep in about 5 years!”.
        Yeah, but which is it? I’m in a total state of panic – either way!!!!
        Now that I’ve heard that, I actually wish that people would tax me MORE, so that we can pay for more “climate science” and answer these “big questions”.
        I’m so afraid right now. And my children’s children’s children even more afraid. And, they haven’t been born yet.
        But, by linear extrapolation, we can assume that they are more afraid than the children.
        How bad can they let this get before they ask Ban-Ki-Moon and Al Gore to do something to make the climate stop changing?

      • I love how activity over a period of two WEEKS is enough to “predict” long-term effects, but a lack of activity over eighteen YEARS is irrelevant. One semester of geology should have taught him that glaciers advance and retreat over the course of a year: both measurements are needed for net gain/loss.

        If only my parents had not instilled a sense of morality in me. Alarmists get the best free vacations, and they get paid too!

    • Several thousand years ago when the Geological Record tells us the earth went through it’s warmist period of the interglacial, the very region these so called scientists now claim will be uninhabitable was the site of the rise of civilization.

      That suggests to me that a slightly warmer world might just be beneficial to the middle east. Probably something to do with increased precipitation I’d bet. And that’s before we add in the greening we are already observing from increased CO2.

      I predict that, rather then an uninhabitable wasteland, the middle east is preparing to bloom.

  11. Problem: The Middle East will get much hotter.
    Solution: Stop buying their exports.

    Yeah, that makes sense.

    • I’d have thought all that arid land would be playing a more significant part. No evaporation

      • “Researchers headed by Tübingen Professor of Plant Ecology, Katja Tielbörger, have carried out long-term experiments in Israel aimed at testing this prognosis. Over nine years, an area rich in plant species was subjected to artificially low rainfall — as predicted for the future. The researchers also examined the effects of higher-than-average rainfall. They selected four ecosystems along an aridity gradient ranging from extreme desert — with 90mm of precipitation in a year — to much damper Mediterranean conditions of 800mm of rain annually. Their findings are published in the latest Nature Communications.

        The study revealed that — against expectations — the ecosystems in question showed barely measurable reactions to the manipulation of rainfall. Neither nine years of greater aridity nor nine years of extra rain had much effect on the diversity or composition of species, their concentration or the biomass which is important for grazing pastures. “This means we need to revisit the popular theory that arid regions are particularly sensitive to climate change,” says Tielbörger, the study’s lead author”

        https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/10/141010084043.htm

  12. Gee, maybe they’ll make a cultural adaptation to those hot days, like they have in Mexico- it is called SIESTA.

    • Also called JALAPEÑOS.

      (Hot weather dampens the appetite. Spicy foods stimulate it.)

  13. For all intents and purposes the Middle East is already uninhabitable. It has a minimum of arable land, fairly harsh climates, and population centers that aren’t well suited to modern transportation, (it’s tough when your large cities are located at old nomadic cross-roads).

    So isn’t this a tautology?

    • Situation:
      Cities dispersed on what amounts to a huge flat plain with minimal obstructions in any direction. Transportation is limited.
      Western Solution: Bulldozers, graders, asphalt.
      Mideastern Solution: Whine about ancient trade routes.
      Anyone from the Midwest would grasp the concept.

      “population centers that aren’t well suited to modern transportation” – That would be Switzerland.

  14. “In the now published study, Lelieveld and his colleagues first compared climate data from 1986 to 2005 with predictions from 26 climate models over the same time period. It was shown that the measurement data and model predictions corresponded extremely well, which is why the scientists used these models to project climate conditions for the period from 2046 to 2065 and the period from 2081 to 2100.”

    Note this line
    “It was shown that the measurement data and model predictions corresponded extremely well, ”

    The models are fudged to meet observed data and then run forward.

    Lying chits

    • The models are fudged to meet observed data

      Now Mark, that isn’t always true. Sometimes the data is fudged to meet the models.

      >¿<

  15. and all you have to do is follow Israel’s protocols –

    “How Israel survived the Mediterranean’s worst drought in 900 years”

    “By Alina Dain Sharon/JNS.org

    Israeli water experts say that a combination of water from rainfall, recycling of wastewater, desalination of seawater, and a large-scare water conservation campaign has made Israel nearly drought-proof”

    http://www.jns.org/latest-articles/2016/3/18/esj0wkq167hvfe4v6g17hkqx9ympas#.VyoBBbvLjxw=

    • People have been dealing with these conditions for hundreds of years.

      The limit is how many resources can support. If population keeps growing then it is because there are enough resources, unless humans have found a way to live without water and food, and forgot how to cover themselves to protect from sun, some climate scientists dont understand why they wear white in the desert :D

      • and in the 21st century we’re doomed-

        “The qanat system consists of underground channels that convey water from aquifers in highlands to the surface at lower levels by gravity. The qanat works of Iran were built on a scale that rivaled the great aqueducts of the Roman Empire. Whereas the Roman aqueducts now are only a historical curiosity, the Iranian system is still in use after 3,000 years and has continually been expanded. There are some 22,000 qanat units in Iran, comprising more than 170,000 miles of underground channels. The system supplies 75 percent of all the water used in that country, providing water not only for irrigation but also for house-hold consumption”

        “Since so little of the earliest civilizations survive, it can be tough to piece their exact systems together. That being said, evidence of baths, sewers, toilets, and even copper pipes were found at ruins of the Indus River Valley Civilization that date back to between 3,000 and 4,000 BC”

        “Not too much later (relatively speaking), in 2,300 BC, the Egyptians were using copper pipe in bathrooms for their pharaohs. The Minoan Civilization on Crete developed sewer systems and rain water runoff systems somewhere around 1,800 BC, including a flush toilet for their royalty”

        “Persians developed their own versions of aqueducts that quickly spread around the Middle East. Instead of building the aqueducts on the surface, they built long tunnels call qanats. These tunnels were cut into hills and connected cities on the plains to the hill wells. And they weren’t small tunnels. The city of Zarch in Iran has a qanat that stretches 71 km and dates back to 1,000 BC that’s still in use today”

  16. “The result is deeply alarming: Even if Earth’s temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold.”

    Admittedly, this statement could have originated from a press release writer, but I find it interesting to speculate on how summer temperatures could increase by “more than twofold.” That would seem to put those temperatures up around 100C. Maybe Hansen’s idea of us disappearing in a cloud of “blue steam” is closer than we think………Hmmm.

    • Plus it’s not those ares that are showing the warming, it’s the colder places, and night time and minimum temps, there has been little change in maximum temperatures, so the whole thing falls apart right there

  17. Max Planck Institute – a great man’s legacy co-opted by fear-peddling grant-seekers.

  18. If a person is living on Mt. Everest and its uninhabitable, there is a simple answer: move down the mountain. Why, oh why didn’t mindless evolution bless humans with migratory instincts? Oh, wait…

  19. ” If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections”

    If there are 200 hundred of them they would no longer be unusual.

    • It’s all relative. I went to Florida last year and I can assure you, to an Indiana farm boy they get 365 unusually hot days a year. ^¿^

  20. I agree with englandrichard that a large part of what is going on in the middle east is continued population growth, which ties in to the post within the last few months about heat reducing the amount of sex. Which is it?

  21. RCP8.5 assumes energy/GDP does not fall with development, which is historically false. Projects that annual emissions go from 6GtC to ~27 GtC by 2100. Roughly 4.5x, meaning 4.5x annual fossil fuel consumption. That is geophysically impossible for oil. And probably impossible for coal.
    The study is nonesense.

  22. I saw a link to this the other day. They were saying that the middle east would see 2 to 3 times as much warming as the global average.

    Now am I remembering things wrong, or wasn’t CAGW supposed to have the greatest effect in winter at higher latitudes? Isn’t that in fact what all those ‘adjusted’ temperature maps that show the Arctic awash in red while the rest of the world chugs along in yellow, green and blue are supposed to be telling us?

    CO2 really is the magic molecule. It can cause literally anything. Even contradictory things.

  23. Lelieveld and his colleagues first compared climate data from 1986 to 2005

    Whenever you see odd start and end dates, start asking questions. Why stop in 2005?
    Answer: Because that’s when the departure from reality due to the pause started to become apparent.
    So a decade’s worth of data discarded to make the models appear accurate.
    Cherry picking, cherry picking, cherry picking.

    • If you look at this graph:

      You can see what they did. If you look at 1986 to 2005 only, the case can be made that there is a “reasonable” correlation to observations. So they just extended that trend line out a few decades and forecasted doom while carefully ignoring that beyond 2005, there’s no such trend in the models to forecast from.

  24. All this is based on assumptions that increased CO2 will cause the atmosphere to increase in temperature from 2 to 4 degrees going forward. There is no evidence for this assumption, only computer models that get more wrong every day, as CO2 content increases while the temperatures do not.

  25. I question the temperature measurements and the models predicting such great temperature increases in northern Africa if the world warms 2 degrees C. Temperature rise in the tropics should be less than elsewhere in the world, as greenhouse gases cool the uppermost level of the troposphere and this favors increased convection. Warming will be greater in cooler parts of the world where convection from the surface to the middle or the top of the troposphere usually does not occur.

  26. I don’t know how “you people” could continue to refuse to accept the reality that the middle east has been experiencing dramatic climate change. Refugees from the middle east have been continually turning up in other countries throughout recorded history. Often with not altogether happy consequences for the host nation. See (for example): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_conquests_on_the_Indian_subcontinent
    And how could anyone deny that the Persian Gulf has experienced a catastrophic influx of sea water.
    It was formerly, a nature park (containing a couple of naturists, a snake and some fig and apple trees).

  27. The people have led a nomatic life in a baking Desert for thousands of years. Just how much worse of a climate can you get? Global Warming is nothing new to the Middle East, they experience it on a daily basis.

  28. The middle east has been pretty much uninhabitable for intelligent people for centuries.

  29. With an opening paragraph jam-packed with pseudo terror-catastrophe, Jos Lelieveld has a promising career as a fiction writer beckoning.

  30. It’s no wonder that climate scientists feel such an affinity with the lands that gave is the creed of Islam.

    After all – what’s the difference between Fundamental Islam and Climate Science?
    Well – one is an ideology where if a person rejects the central tenets of the faith then they are forcefully excluded and silenced.
    And in the other – they are killed.

  31. Egypt must have been much much greener (and colder) 4000 y ago, otherwise those pharaos would have relocated.
    Must have become a desert around all their buildings and pyramids BEFORE AGW..

  32. The mass exodus (e.g. refugee crises) were not caused by short or long-term weather changes, but by premature evacuation, progressive wars, impulsive regime changes, and other anti-native policies.

  33. Am I completely mis-remembering my climate change theory? Dooesnt the theory say that the equatorial regions will warm the least, and the polar regions will warm the most? Or am I hallucinating…

  34. If they already blame the Syrian conflict on climate change, then by extension they can simulate and project most anything—for academic credit of course and in the name of looking busy.

  35. Habitability problems of the Middle East are definitely anthropogenic, but they have less to do with high temperatures than with high levels of lead projectiles.

  36. “The result is deeply alarming”…

    … Permission to scream please… ARGH!!!!!

    It’s ALWAYS “deeply alarming.”

    For Puck’s sake!

    *Bangs head on desk*

  37. Before joining any further discussion about the climate fate of the Middle East, the following demographic facts should be taken into consideration:

    Area/country > population (millions) 1950 > population 2010:
    Syria 3,2 > 21,5
    Yemen 4,3 > 24,0
    Iraq 5,7 > 30,9
    Iran 22 > 75
    Saudi 3,1 > 27,5
    Jordan 0,7 > 6
    Emirates 0,07 > 7,5
    Egypt ca 19 > ca 80
    Libya ca 1 > ca 6
    Tunisia 3,5 > 10,6
    Algeria 9 > 35,6

    Sum 73 > 395

    Let us also mention Afghanistan 1950: 7,8 mill, 2010: 28 mill. (2016: 33,5 mill, 6 mill fled.)

    Sources: Mostly Wikipedia + http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/

    This massive increase in population will invariably have led to deforestation, destrucion of agricultural areas, salt intrusions, etc., etc. In other words: desertification and regional climate disasters.

    • Just goes to show how Cultural Appropriation is a bad thing like the cry-bullies object to. Good thing there’s a return to many delightful 7th century attitudes in those countries listed …. (sarc/)

    • Knut

      A useful way to look at population is to find the population doubling time in years. For Germany it is ‘never’ as the population is shrinking. For Italy it is about 800. For the Middle Eastern Countries it is about 18-21. That says it all.

  38. What does this matter? Middle Easterners will make the Middle East uninhabitable long before a changing climate will get the chance.

  39. If/when people start leaving the Middle East/Africa in large numbers, it will be caused by obvious reasons like massive population increases causing shortages of water, destruction of agricultural areas, salt accumulation, or by political instability caused by the effects of Sharia Law and Muslim doctrine. and not ‘climate change’ or global warming or climate instability.

    • In case you haven’t noticed, the Middle East has been under Shariah law and Muslim doctrine for about 1300 years.

      In case you haven’t noticed also, people are fleeing Africa and the Middle East as we speak.

      The refugees are fleeing the Middle East not because of Shariah, but because of brutal, intra-religious civil wars.

      Africans have been piling into overloaded boats to cross the Mediterranean for decades, fleeing not Shariah, but their barbarian regimes at home.

      Here’s a picture of Africans fleeing (hundreds of these ships set out into the Med every year):

      http://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.M5896fc47ead9547dbe953618a7242a91o0&pid=15.1

  40. The two scenarios:

    “The first scenario, called RCP4.5, assumes that the global emissions of greenhouse gases will start decreasing by 2040 and that the Earth will be subjected to warming by 4.5 Watt per square meter by the end of the century.

    “…The second scenario (RCP8.5) is based on the assumption that greenhouse gases will continue to increase without further limitations.”

    Both of these scenarios are moonbeams. RCP8.5 is based on a ridiculous model, the most extreme, that output of which has borne no resemblance to reality since it was first initialized.

    Taking the hot days cherry-picked baseline of 1970, then in the grip of a global downturn that had everyone from the students in high school to the CIA worried about an impending ice age, is just that – cherry-picking. The use of a different timelines for ‘dust’ and temperature and hot nights shows this is an agenda-driven screed, not an honest examination of the facts.

    The Sahel has moved more than 500 km since the early 80’s, turning an area of more than 1.5m sq km of sandy Sahara into dry grazing lands. If the temperature continues to rise – something seriously in doubt as the pause continues – the Sahel will reach the Mediterranean Sea and we will live in the productive climate of a Minoan Optimum. Good for us.

    When and if it does, it will be not because of AG CO2 or anything else we have or haven’t done, even though we can have local and even regional effects at ground level. It will be because the climate moves in overlapping cycles that include changes in all the features cited.

  41. ‘…the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold.’
    Ummm, really? So, instead of it being approx 310K it will be 620K? Or, maybe instead of it being 40C it will be 80C? Nonsense stuff.

  42. The drought driven heatwave events and trends in these regions are negative North Atlantic Oscillation driven, which is the wrong sign to associate with AGW. Regionally, as the AMO warmed from 1995, the Sahel became wetter, as the north coast of Africa, the Arab Peninsular, and large parts of the Levant became drier. The warm AMO is negative NAO driven. At an event scale the persistent strong negative NAO conditions of 2009/10 shows profoundly in regional drought.
    http://www.unisdr.org/files/23905_droughtsyriasmall.pdf

  43. Here’s a far more extreme example of climate change and drought in these regions. I personally would disregard their suggested possible mechanism, and see the Greenland warming of around 1200 BC as another effect of increased negative North Atlantic Oscillation states, and not a cause.
    Climate and the Late Bronze Collapse: New Evidence from the Southern Levant. Langgut et al. 2013.
    http://archaeology.tau.ac.il/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Langgut_et_al_LB_Collapse_2013.pdf

  44. now.

    By mid-century, 80 instead of 16 extremely hot days

    In addition, the duration of heat waves in North Africa and the Middle East will prolong dramatically. Between 1986 and 2005, it was very hot for an average period of about 16 days, by mid-century it will be unusually hot for 80 days per year. At the end of the century, up to 118 days could be unusually hot, even if greenhouse gas emissions decline again after 2040. “If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections,” says Panos Hadjinicolaou, Associate Professor at the Cyprus Institute and climate change expert.

    And A.Watt’s an honorable man.

  45. That should be good for some loans or grants for new weapons buys in the region.

  46. The research team recently also published findings on the increase of fine particulate air pollution in the Middle East. It was found that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and in Syria has increased by up to 70 percent since the beginning of this century. This is mainly attributable to an increase of sand storms as a result of prolonged droughts. It is expected that climate change will contribute to further increases, which will worsen environmental conditions in the area.

    The research team could phone Tuareg if there’s a shortage on blue veil;

    and shut the lights when leaving for home.

    / it’s their lights. they may leave it on /

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