From MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT and the “where are those other 50 million climate refugees predicted years ago?” department. Ooops, they were disappeared from the Internet when the claim didn’t pan out.
Climate-exodus expected in the Middle East and North Africa
Part of the Middle East and North Africa may become uninhabitable due to climate change
More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa – a region which is very hot in summer and where climate change is already evident. The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970. “In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy,” says Jos Lelieveld, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and Professor at the Cyprus Institute.
Lelieveld and his colleagues have investigated how temperatures will develop in the Middle East and North Africa over the course of the 21st century. The result is deeply alarming: Even if Earth’s temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold. By mid-century, during the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees at night, and during daytime they could rise to 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit). By the end of the century, midday temperatures on hot days could even climb to 50 degrees Celsius (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit). Another finding: Heat waves could occur ten times more often than they do now.
By mid-century, 80 instead of 16 extremely hot days
In addition, the duration of heat waves in North Africa and the Middle East will prolong dramatically. Between 1986 and 2005, it was very hot for an average period of about 16 days, by mid-century it will be unusually hot for 80 days per year. At the end of the century, up to 118 days could be unusually hot, even if greenhouse gas emissions decline again after 2040. “If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections,” says Panos Hadjinicolaou, Associate Professor at the Cyprus Institute and climate change expert.
Atmospheric researcher Jos Lelieveld is convinced that climate change will have a major impact on the environment and the health of people in these regions. “Climate change will significantly worsen the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa. Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate,” says Jos Lelieveld.
The research team recently also published findings on the increase of fine particulate air pollution in the Middle East. It was found that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and in Syria has increased by up to 70 percent since the beginning of this century. This is mainly attributable to an increase of sand storms as a result of prolonged droughts. It is expected that climate change will contribute to further increases, which will worsen environmental conditions in the area.
In the now published study, Lelieveld and his colleagues first compared climate data from 1986 to 2005 with predictions from 26 climate models over the same time period. It was shown that the measurement data and model predictions corresponded extremely well, which is why the scientists used these models to project climate conditions for the period from 2046 to 2065 and the period from 2081 to 2100.
Largest temperature increase in already hot summers
The researchers based their calculations on two future scenarios: The first scenario, called RCP4.5, assumes that the global emissions of greenhouse gases will start decreasing by 2040 and that the Earth will be subjected to warming by 4.5 Watt per square meter by the end of the century. The RCP4.5 scenario roughly corresponds to the target set at the most recent UN climate summit, which means that global warming should be limited to less than two degrees Celsius.
The second scenario (RCP8.5) is based on the assumption that greenhouse gases will continue to increase without further limitations. It is therefore called the “business-as-usual scenario”. According to this scenario, the mean surface temperature of the Earth will increase by more than four degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
In both scenarios, the strongest rise in temperature in the Middle East and North Africa is expected during summer, when it is already very hot, and not during winter, which is more common in other parts of the globe. This is primarily attributed to a desert warming amplification in regions such as the Sahara. Deserts do not buffer heat well, which means that the hot and dry surface cannot cool by the evaporation of ground water. Since the surface energy balance is controlled by heat radiation, the greenhouse effect by gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor will increase disproportionately.
Regardless of which climate change scenario will become reality: both Lelieveld and Hadjinicolaou agree that climate change can result in a significant deterioration of living conditions for people living in North Africa and the Middle East, and consequently, sooner or later, many people may have to leave the region.
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Original publications
Jos Lelieveld, Yiannis Proestos, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Meryem Tanarhte, Evangelos Tyrlis und Georgios Zittis
Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century
Climatic Change, 23 April 2016; doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
Klaus Klingmüller, Andrea Pozzer, Swen Metzger, Georgiy L. Stenchikov und Jos Lelieveld
Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22 April 2016; doi:10.5194/acp-16-5063-2016
” If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections”
If there are 200 hundred of them they would no longer be unusual.
It’s all relative. I went to Florida last year and I can assure you, to an Indiana farm boy they get 365 unusually hot days a year. ^¿^
I agree with englandrichard that a large part of what is going on in the middle east is continued population growth, which ties in to the post within the last few months about heat reducing the amount of sex. Which is it?
Abiotic children?
RCP8.5 assumes energy/GDP does not fall with development, which is historically false. Projects that annual emissions go from 6GtC to ~27 GtC by 2100. Roughly 4.5x, meaning 4.5x annual fossil fuel consumption. That is geophysically impossible for oil. And probably impossible for coal.
The study is nonesense.
I saw a link to this the other day. They were saying that the middle east would see 2 to 3 times as much warming as the global average.
Now am I remembering things wrong, or wasn’t CAGW supposed to have the greatest effect in winter at higher latitudes? Isn’t that in fact what all those ‘adjusted’ temperature maps that show the Arctic awash in red while the rest of the world chugs along in yellow, green and blue are supposed to be telling us?
CO2 really is the magic molecule. It can cause literally anything. Even contradictory things.
Lelieveld and his colleagues first compared climate data from 1986 to 2005
Whenever you see odd start and end dates, start asking questions. Why stop in 2005?
Answer: Because that’s when the departure from reality due to the pause started to become apparent.
So a decade’s worth of data discarded to make the models appear accurate.
Cherry picking, cherry picking, cherry picking.
If you look at this graph:
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-zLZvFvWqy8Y/U8REucSDlfI/AAAAAAAAASg/-f_VHXdfaQY/s1600/CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1.png
You can see what they did. If you look at 1986 to 2005 only, the case can be made that there is a “reasonable” correlation to observations. So they just extended that trend line out a few decades and forecasted doom while carefully ignoring that beyond 2005, there’s no such trend in the models to forecast from.
there’s no such correlation in the models to forecast from.
All this is based on assumptions that increased CO2 will cause the atmosphere to increase in temperature from 2 to 4 degrees going forward. There is no evidence for this assumption, only computer models that get more wrong every day, as CO2 content increases while the temperatures do not.
I question the temperature measurements and the models predicting such great temperature increases in northern Africa if the world warms 2 degrees C. Temperature rise in the tropics should be less than elsewhere in the world, as greenhouse gases cool the uppermost level of the troposphere and this favors increased convection. Warming will be greater in cooler parts of the world where convection from the surface to the middle or the top of the troposphere usually does not occur.
it’s one of those “honey i ran the climate model” papers
I didn’t see any comparisons to the 1930s.
I don’t know how “you people” could continue to refuse to accept the reality that the middle east has been experiencing dramatic climate change. Refugees from the middle east have been continually turning up in other countries throughout recorded history. Often with not altogether happy consequences for the host nation. See (for example): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muslim_conquests_on_the_Indian_subcontinent
And how could anyone deny that the Persian Gulf has experienced a catastrophic influx of sea water.
It was formerly, a nature park (containing a couple of naturists, a snake and some fig and apple trees).
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/0_2.png
The people have led a nomatic life in a baking Desert for thousands of years. Just how much worse of a climate can you get? Global Warming is nothing new to the Middle East, they experience it on a daily basis.
The middle east has been pretty much uninhabitable for intelligent people for centuries.
With an opening paragraph jam-packed with pseudo terror-catastrophe, Jos Lelieveld has a promising career as a fiction writer beckoning.
Climate Sceance.
The only branch of the sciences with a 100% failure rate.
It’s no wonder that climate scientists feel such an affinity with the lands that gave is the creed of Islam.
After all – what’s the difference between Fundamental Islam and Climate Science?
Well – one is an ideology where if a person rejects the central tenets of the faith then they are forcefully excluded and silenced.
And in the other – they are killed.
Which one is which, indefatigablefrog? ;o)
Egypt must have been much much greener (and colder) 4000 y ago, otherwise those pharaos would have relocated.
Must have become a desert around all their buildings and pyramids BEFORE AGW..
The mass exodus (e.g. refugee crises) were not caused by short or long-term weather changes, but by premature evacuation, progressive wars, impulsive regime changes, and other anti-native policies.
Am I completely mis-remembering my climate change theory? Dooesnt the theory say that the equatorial regions will warm the least, and the polar regions will warm the most? Or am I hallucinating…
Islam has made the Middle East uninhabitable
Yes, but this is a way to blame us for it.
Like they needed an excuse?
MarkW: Perhaps better phrased as “yet another excuse to blame us for it.”
If they already blame the Syrian conflict on climate change, then by extension they can simulate and project most anything—for academic credit of course and in the name of looking busy.
Habitability problems of the Middle East are definitely anthropogenic, but they have less to do with high temperatures than with high levels of lead projectiles.
“The result is deeply alarming”…
… Permission to scream please… ARGH!!!!!
It’s ALWAYS “deeply alarming.”
For Puck’s sake!
*Bangs head on desk*
Don’t bang your head on the desk.
We are running out of desks.
Before joining any further discussion about the climate fate of the Middle East, the following demographic facts should be taken into consideration:
Area/country > population (millions) 1950 > population 2010:
Syria 3,2 > 21,5
Yemen 4,3 > 24,0
Iraq 5,7 > 30,9
Iran 22 > 75
Saudi 3,1 > 27,5
Jordan 0,7 > 6
Emirates 0,07 > 7,5
Egypt ca 19 > ca 80
Libya ca 1 > ca 6
Tunisia 3,5 > 10,6
Algeria 9 > 35,6
Sum 73 > 395
Let us also mention Afghanistan 1950: 7,8 mill, 2010: 28 mill. (2016: 33,5 mill, 6 mill fled.)
Sources: Mostly Wikipedia + http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/
This massive increase in population will invariably have led to deforestation, destrucion of agricultural areas, salt intrusions, etc., etc. In other words: desertification and regional climate disasters.
Just goes to show how Cultural Appropriation is a bad thing like the cry-bullies object to. Good thing there’s a return to many delightful 7th century attitudes in those countries listed …. (sarc/)
Knut
A useful way to look at population is to find the population doubling time in years. For Germany it is ‘never’ as the population is shrinking. For Italy it is about 800. For the Middle Eastern Countries it is about 18-21. That says it all.
What does this matter? Middle Easterners will make the Middle East uninhabitable long before a changing climate will get the chance.
If/when people start leaving the Middle East/Africa in large numbers, it will be caused by obvious reasons like massive population increases causing shortages of water, destruction of agricultural areas, salt accumulation, or by political instability caused by the effects of Sharia Law and Muslim doctrine. and not ‘climate change’ or global warming or climate instability.
In case you haven’t noticed, the Middle East has been under Shariah law and Muslim doctrine for about 1300 years.
In case you haven’t noticed also, people are fleeing Africa and the Middle East as we speak.
The refugees are fleeing the Middle East not because of Shariah, but because of brutal, intra-religious civil wars.
Africans have been piling into overloaded boats to cross the Mediterranean for decades, fleeing not Shariah, but their barbarian regimes at home.
Here’s a picture of Africans fleeing (hundreds of these ships set out into the Med every year):
http://tse3.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.M5896fc47ead9547dbe953618a7242a91o0&pid=15.1