From MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT and the “where are those other 50 million climate refugees predicted years ago?” department. Ooops, they were disappeared from the Internet when the claim didn’t pan out.
Climate-exodus expected in the Middle East and North Africa
Part of the Middle East and North Africa may become uninhabitable due to climate change
More than 500 million people live in the Middle East and North Africa – a region which is very hot in summer and where climate change is already evident. The number of extremely hot days has doubled since 1970. “In future, the climate in large parts of the Middle East and North Africa could change in such a manner that the very existence of its inhabitants is in jeopardy,” says Jos Lelieveld, Director at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and Professor at the Cyprus Institute.
Lelieveld and his colleagues have investigated how temperatures will develop in the Middle East and North Africa over the course of the 21st century. The result is deeply alarming: Even if Earth’s temperature were to increase on average only by two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times, the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold. By mid-century, during the warmest periods, temperatures will not fall below 30 degrees at night, and during daytime they could rise to 46 degrees Celsius (approximately 114 degrees Fahrenheit). By the end of the century, midday temperatures on hot days could even climb to 50 degrees Celsius (approximately 122 degrees Fahrenheit). Another finding: Heat waves could occur ten times more often than they do now.
By mid-century, 80 instead of 16 extremely hot days
In addition, the duration of heat waves in North Africa and the Middle East will prolong dramatically. Between 1986 and 2005, it was very hot for an average period of about 16 days, by mid-century it will be unusually hot for 80 days per year. At the end of the century, up to 118 days could be unusually hot, even if greenhouse gas emissions decline again after 2040. “If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections,” says Panos Hadjinicolaou, Associate Professor at the Cyprus Institute and climate change expert.
Atmospheric researcher Jos Lelieveld is convinced that climate change will have a major impact on the environment and the health of people in these regions. “Climate change will significantly worsen the living conditions in the Middle East and in North Africa. Prolonged heat waves and desert dust storms can render some regions uninhabitable, which will surely contribute to the pressure to migrate,” says Jos Lelieveld.
The research team recently also published findings on the increase of fine particulate air pollution in the Middle East. It was found that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and in Syria has increased by up to 70 percent since the beginning of this century. This is mainly attributable to an increase of sand storms as a result of prolonged droughts. It is expected that climate change will contribute to further increases, which will worsen environmental conditions in the area.
In the now published study, Lelieveld and his colleagues first compared climate data from 1986 to 2005 with predictions from 26 climate models over the same time period. It was shown that the measurement data and model predictions corresponded extremely well, which is why the scientists used these models to project climate conditions for the period from 2046 to 2065 and the period from 2081 to 2100.
Largest temperature increase in already hot summers
The researchers based their calculations on two future scenarios: The first scenario, called RCP4.5, assumes that the global emissions of greenhouse gases will start decreasing by 2040 and that the Earth will be subjected to warming by 4.5 Watt per square meter by the end of the century. The RCP4.5 scenario roughly corresponds to the target set at the most recent UN climate summit, which means that global warming should be limited to less than two degrees Celsius.
The second scenario (RCP8.5) is based on the assumption that greenhouse gases will continue to increase without further limitations. It is therefore called the “business-as-usual scenario”. According to this scenario, the mean surface temperature of the Earth will increase by more than four degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times.
In both scenarios, the strongest rise in temperature in the Middle East and North Africa is expected during summer, when it is already very hot, and not during winter, which is more common in other parts of the globe. This is primarily attributed to a desert warming amplification in regions such as the Sahara. Deserts do not buffer heat well, which means that the hot and dry surface cannot cool by the evaporation of ground water. Since the surface energy balance is controlled by heat radiation, the greenhouse effect by gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor will increase disproportionately.
Regardless of which climate change scenario will become reality: both Lelieveld and Hadjinicolaou agree that climate change can result in a significant deterioration of living conditions for people living in North Africa and the Middle East, and consequently, sooner or later, many people may have to leave the region.
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Original publications
Jos Lelieveld, Yiannis Proestos, Panos Hadjinicolaou, Meryem Tanarhte, Evangelos Tyrlis und Georgios Zittis
Strongly increasing heat extremes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the 21st century
Climatic Change, 23 April 2016; doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1665-6
Klaus Klingmüller, Andrea Pozzer, Swen Metzger, Georgiy L. Stenchikov und Jos Lelieveld
Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22 April 2016; doi:10.5194/acp-16-5063-2016
spur mass exodus
Sounds more like the old Exodus Mass to me.
The two scenarios:
“The first scenario, called RCP4.5, assumes that the global emissions of greenhouse gases will start decreasing by 2040 and that the Earth will be subjected to warming by 4.5 Watt per square meter by the end of the century.
“…The second scenario (RCP8.5) is based on the assumption that greenhouse gases will continue to increase without further limitations.”
Both of these scenarios are moonbeams. RCP8.5 is based on a ridiculous model, the most extreme, that output of which has borne no resemblance to reality since it was first initialized.
Taking the hot days cherry-picked baseline of 1970, then in the grip of a global downturn that had everyone from the students in high school to the CIA worried about an impending ice age, is just that – cherry-picking. The use of a different timelines for ‘dust’ and temperature and hot nights shows this is an agenda-driven screed, not an honest examination of the facts.
The Sahel has moved more than 500 km since the early 80’s, turning an area of more than 1.5m sq km of sandy Sahara into dry grazing lands. If the temperature continues to rise – something seriously in doubt as the pause continues – the Sahel will reach the Mediterranean Sea and we will live in the productive climate of a Minoan Optimum. Good for us.
When and if it does, it will be not because of AG CO2 or anything else we have or haven’t done, even though we can have local and even regional effects at ground level. It will be because the climate moves in overlapping cycles that include changes in all the features cited.
‘…the temperature in summer in these regions will increase more than twofold.’
Ummm, really? So, instead of it being approx 310K it will be 620K? Or, maybe instead of it being 40C it will be 80C? Nonsense stuff.
The drought driven heatwave events and trends in these regions are negative North Atlantic Oscillation driven, which is the wrong sign to associate with AGW. Regionally, as the AMO warmed from 1995, the Sahel became wetter, as the north coast of Africa, the Arab Peninsular, and large parts of the Levant became drier. The warm AMO is negative NAO driven. At an event scale the persistent strong negative NAO conditions of 2009/10 shows profoundly in regional drought.
http://www.unisdr.org/files/23905_droughtsyriasmall.pdf
Here’s a far more extreme example of climate change and drought in these regions. I personally would disregard their suggested possible mechanism, and see the Greenland warming of around 1200 BC as another effect of increased negative North Atlantic Oscillation states, and not a cause.
Climate and the Late Bronze Collapse: New Evidence from the Southern Levant. Langgut et al. 2013.
http://archaeology.tau.ac.il/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Langgut_et_al_LB_Collapse_2013.pdf
now.
By mid-century, 80 instead of 16 extremely hot days
In addition, the duration of heat waves in North Africa and the Middle East will prolong dramatically. Between 1986 and 2005, it was very hot for an average period of about 16 days, by mid-century it will be unusually hot for 80 days per year. At the end of the century, up to 118 days could be unusually hot, even if greenhouse gas emissions decline again after 2040. “If mankind continues to release carbon dioxide as it does now, people living in the Middle East and North Africa will have to expect about 200 unusually hot days, according to the model projections,” says Panos Hadjinicolaou, Associate Professor at the Cyprus Institute and climate change expert.
And A.Watt’s an honorable man.
That should be good for some loans or grants for new weapons buys in the region.
The research team recently also published findings on the increase of fine particulate air pollution in the Middle East. It was found that desert dust in the atmosphere over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and in Syria has increased by up to 70 percent since the beginning of this century. This is mainly attributable to an increase of sand storms as a result of prolonged droughts. It is expected that climate change will contribute to further increases, which will worsen environmental conditions in the area.
The research team could phone Tuareg if there’s a shortage on blue veil;
and shut the lights when leaving for home.
/ it’s their lights. they may leave it on /