Guest essay by Sheldon Walker
I have developed a new type of graph, which I call a global warming contour map. It displays the warming rate, for every possible trend in an interval. The warming rate is color coded, and can be plotted against any 2 of the variables “start date”, “end date”, and “trend length”.
The global warming contour map makes investigating global warming easy, accurate, and fun. A bright eight year old could use the graph to obtain accurate warming rate information, for any interval that they were interested in.
Detecting a slowdown or speedup, is as easy as spotting a cloud in the sky. The reason for this is simple. Warming rates are translated into different colors, based on the size of the warming rate (e.g. light green means that the warming rate is between 1.4 and 1.8 degC/century). If the warming rate changes, then the new warming rate will be a different color to the previous one. So we end up with a shape on the contour map, which has a different color to the previous color. This is very easy to detect.
Have a look at the following contour map, which covers the interval from 1880 to 2015. A contour map contains a lot of information, so don’t be put off by the amount of detail. Once you learn the color coding rules, the contour map will be a lot easier to understand. The explanation of what the different colors mean, can be found after the contour map. I will explain the main features on this contour map, after you have read about the color coding rules.
Because there is so much detail in a contour map, it is best to look at a large image. I think that I am limited to a small image in this article, so I will put a link after the small image, which will take you to a large image that I put on the Photobucket website. I hope that this works, it is the first time that I have tried this. If you can’t get to the large image, then you could try magnifying the small image using your browser. I know that Chrome has a Zoom control, and I assume that other browsers will have something similar.
For a large image of this contour map, from the Photobucket website, click this link:
The legend for global warming contour maps is here:
Now that you have looked at a contour map, and looked at the legend, we can discuss what is on the map.
Along the bottom of the contour map, there is a line of what appear to be small red flames. These are not real flames, but they do represent a source of heat. These are the natural warming events, like El Nino and the Blob. If you count them, then you will find that there are about 46 of them between 1880 and 2015. Some of them merge together, so an exact count is difficult. That is about one natural warming event every 3 years, and I believe that El Nino’s occur about once every 2 to 5 years, so the number seems about right.
There are often small black regions between the natural warming events. I use black to show cooling, so these small black regions are either the cooling phase of an El Nino, or possibly a La Nina.
Now look at the big black area near the middle of the graph, As I said before, I use black to show cooling, so this appears to be a large cooling event. When I first found this, I thought that it might be an error in the graph. I checked it carefully, and found that it was an approximately 40 year cooling trend, that started about 1935, and finished in about 1975. As soon as I saw the year 1975, I knew what this was. I remembered that in 1976 there was a scare about a possible ice age happening. Time magazine ran 2 cover stories, one about “The coming Ice Age”, and the other about “How to survive the coming Ice Age”. I don’t believe that Time magazine would invent these stories with no evidence. It would make sense if some scientist noticed the 40 year cooling trend, and said something to somebody.
I am going to finish this article here, but I have lots more to tell you about these contour maps.
In my next article I will talk about things that the contour maps show, which are consistent with anthropogenic global warming.
I will also talk about things that the contour maps show, which might not be consistent with anthropogenic global warming.
One of these topics will be a favourite of mine, the recent slowdown. If you look on the global warming contour map that covers from 1880 to 2015, you can easily see the slowdown. As I said earlier, detecting a slowdown or speedup is as easy as spotting a cloud in the sky. Try to find it yourself. Because the map covers from 1880 to 2015, it is not large, but it is clearly visible. In my next article I will show a contour map going from 1975 to 2015, and the slowdown will appear larger because of the smaller interval that the map covers.