Before pundits and poor scientists begin pronouncing the expected east coast winter “storm of the century” to be a direct product of global warming/climate change/climate disruption, one might take a lesson from historical climatology.
What Does the Peer-Reviewed Literature Say About Trends in East Coast Winter Storms?
Commentary by Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. (reposted from his website with permission)
The image above comes from a 2001 paper by Hirsch et al. (here in PDF) titled, An East Coast Winter Storm Climatology. The top curve shows all East Coast winter storms, and the bottom shows the most intense storms. for the period 1948 to 1997.
As the figure implies, they concluded in that analysis:
the frequency of ECWS show a downward tendency over the study period but at insignificant levels. One test found a decreasing trend in strong ECWS significant for an alpha = 0.10.
So there was no trend 1948 to 1997, or a slightly downward trend. This is interesting because over the latter half of that period one analysis (Willett et al. 2010) found an increase in the water content of the lower atmosphere over the US East Coast. So those who argue for a simple relationship between increasing water content of the atmosphere and storm strength, data do not support such a claim over this multi-decadal period, in this region.
In 2010 Frankoski and DeGaetano published an update to Hirsh et al. 2001, extending data through 2006. They concluded:
No significant time-dependent trends were identified for precipitation or snowfall from East Coast Winter Storms or for the percentage of precipitation or snowfall from East Coast Winter Storms.
Such research is likely why the IPCC AR5 concluded in 2013:
In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extra-tropical cyclones since 1900 is low.
What that means in climate-speak is that the detection of trends in winter storms has not been achieved. It also means that the IPCC has not attributedany trends to human influences. Detection and attribution are explained in some detail in my recent book.
You can of course find fringe views on both detection and attribution out there on the internet (carefully cherry picked). There are also plenty of smart folks trying to do their own analyses without referencing the IPCC or the peer reviewed literature on the subject. Minority views and amateurs are legitimate and worth hearing, as they can add valuable new perspectives. But if these folks really wanted to contribute to scientific understandings they should seek to publish their alternative theories in the peer reviewed literature.
No one – least of all those who consider themselves professional journalists – should confuse these alternative perspectives for what is found in the peer-reviewed literature and the assessments of the IPCC.
For further reading, see Vose et al. 2014 and Wang et al. 2008.
And then there’s this:
https://twitter.com/RogerAPielkeSr/status/690564112447705088
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/690559923269185537
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If this storm is being caused by CAGW how do you account for similar storms that occurred when there was much less CO2 in the atmosphere? This is unusual, but not unprecedented by a long shot.
To doubters, check the weather radars for that area. This baby is on the way. The only weak point in the forecast is how much snow New York and Boston get. It depends on the track of the low that’s coming up the coast driving all this stuff.
similar storms that occurred when there was much less CO2 in the atmosphere?
===========================
Where have you been? Read the Press. There were never any storms before Global Warming. CNN is running this 36 hours a day. Its bigger than both gulf wars combined. It even bigger that Snarkanado. Its Snowmagedon. The end of the world as we know it.
You’re probably right. I read that Obama’s motorcade got stuck in it. (Or maybe they just had to turn on their windshield wipers. I forget.)
…maybe even bigger than a Kim Kardashian b00b slip!
It is going to be fun to watch the webcams while I sit in sunny Yuma, AZ. This storm, however, while unusual is hardly unprecedented. Similar pressure patterns have produced similar results in the past. The only weak spot in predicting amounts is in New York and Boston. That is mostly dependent on the track of the low pressure system moving north off the coast.
22 Jan: Shanghai Daily: Xinhua: Airport, highways closed as China sees worst cold in decades
Starting from 8 a.m. on Friday, highways in at least 12 provinces and municipalities have been closed due to blizzards and snowstorms.
A large part of Jiangxi province, in eastern China, was hit by snowstorms on Friday. The airport in Nanchang, capital of Jiangxi was closed Friday morning. Several sections of the highways in the province were also closed.
Jiangxi’s coldest weather since 1992 is expected from Jan. 23 to 26.
Temperatures in Beijing dropped to minus ten degrees Celsius on Friday and is expected to hit a 30-year low of minus 17 degrees Celsius on Saturday, Beijing meteorological station forecast…
On the streets of Genhe, icy fog clouds the city street and fish vendors can easily snap a frozen fish into two parts.
Ergune and surrounding areas have seen temperatures fall to minus 40 degrees.
http://www.shanghaidaily.com/national/Airport-highways-closed-as-China-sees-worst-cold-in-decades/shdaily.shtml
-17C in Beijing at 8AM – real feel -31. Nice sunny day though 😰
It was very cold in Beijing in December 2015. In November it was also unusually cold with Mongolia really cashing in early too. The November cold was interesting because the climate scare conference was on in Paris and the international news channels were parading the PM2.5 levels of Beijing every hour.
What the climate kooks didn’t realise was that a lot of what they were looking at was ice fog. They showed long distance telescopic shots of buildings disappearing into the ‘smog’. Beijing in early winter is very humid and it was so bloody cold it was terrible to walk in. The PM2.5 count went to 300 and they rejoiced in Paris as the BBC blamed the fog and ice and smoke on coal combustion in the city (the city doesn’t have a coal combustion problem, they have a car problem).
So the saving grace for the Chinese government PR people was that apparently the BBC correspondents can’t drive so they couldn’t visit cities to the north and northeast where the PM2.5 count reaches 2000 to 3000 on bad days, like Ulaanbaatar used to. I have seen it well over 1000 in Beijing, actually. In 2015. 300 is chicken feed.
That the brutal winter continues doesn’t surprise me. It is going to really bad for Hebei (which surrounds Beijing) and it’s smoke problem – they still burn coal badly in 18m home heaters. As the solar pause continues for the next twenty years it is only going to get worse. They will need a lot more energy or a transformation in the heating, technologies.
82 million Amnericans to see piles of snow in East Coast Blizzard: When did the Global Warmistas/CAGW/Climate Change Mob forecast this sort of thing. I thought that it was all settled and we were going to fry. At least that was their story.
The major hurricanes the climate alarmists predicted have morphed into major blizzards. The AGW hypothesis has everything covered: drought, flood, snow, ice, wind and rain – it is all our fault. AGW, the hypothesis that keeps going because it can never be disproven.
Standard (correct) climate theory predicts warming REDUCES frequency and intensity of extreme events. Because polar warming, tropical stasis.
The Great Blizzard of 1888 dumped about 60 inches (5 feet !!!!) of snow on NYC.
Just goes to show that you can choose ANY time period or climate event of convenience to “prove” whatever you wish. .
I await a comparison of present day global average temperatures with those extant during the age of dinosaurs, or even the Medieval Warm Period.
By the way, where the hell is the National Academy of Science re: the AGW scam/fraud??
Why are they remaining silent??
Climate change routinely refernces that early industrial period. Fair game.
references
Don’t you just love the wordsmiths at the IPCC?
“In summary, confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extra-tropical cyclones since 1900 is low.”
Could they have gotten the words “confidence” and “low” any further apart? Why not this:
“In summary, there is low confidence in large scale changes…”
And I wonder what their confidence level was for “very small scale changes in the intensity of extreme extra-tropical cyclones”? Was it very high, perchance? Why not say that?
“Confidence in large scale changes in the intensity of extreme extra-tropical cyclones since 1900, in summary, is low.”
That would be the furthest 😉
What is the current over/under line at the casino’s?
Wind up the John Holdren talking pseudoscience toy at the White House to explain it all.
82 million Americans experienced some winter today. No doubt headline writers will always be one step ahead of climate and weather with alarm. It’s their job.
I can’t remember that last time people were ordered to stay off the highways because it was hot outside.
According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
“Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said.
What does history say? Cold kills so be thankful the globe is in a warm phase-
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/woman-freezes-to-death-after-leaving-house-party-in-the-us/news-story/45cdd9c20a3d35e23f48e8d16bb514f9
Hmm, but will it
blendsplit …I think the below link to the blizzard of 1888 helps put things in perspective.
http://www.nycsubway.org/wiki/The_Blizzard_of_1888%3B_the_Impact_of_this_Devastating_Storm_on_New_York_Transit
To all back east, stay warm and safe. Then enjoy the snow.
michael
A lot of storms are talked about for decades until the most of the people who experienced them die off. Only a very select few live on in everyday speech beyond that, and the 1888 blizzard is one of them. The 1906 Galveston Hurricane is another. The 1717 winter in the northeast is almost gone, I expect to write a post about it next year.
No matter how bad this storm may be, it could be a lot worse.
1906?
The Great Galveston Hurricane – September 8, 1900
Search images for Galveston Seawall to see what came next.
Oops – I don’t know where I got 1906 from.
Has Gavin turned the air conditioning off in the White House for the briefing?
I just have the feeling that the totals forecast will be about half of what all of the weather gurus predict/forecast…
Only rarely or slightly precedented?
Notice in recent years that winter storms have been given names to empower them like hurricanes. But all they are is ordinary winter weather. When I was in high school, in suburban Boston, 1964-68, we had lots of snow, but only one day where school was cancelled. The wimps have taken over.
Is AlGore giving a speech anywhere in the vicinity?????????????
Major storm of January 29-31, 1966
U.S. Weather Bureau: MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW Vol. 94, No. 4
http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/094/mwr-094-04-0275.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_blizzard_of_1966
AccuWeather has a “weather history” video; many more — just search.
CNN just reported a tree is down. Please Please
Russell,
LOL!!
Good one, made me laff.
Estimate 20 – 22″ here so far in western MD. Power still on, thankfully. Snow is fairly dry, so not sticking as much as a wet snow.
Reality check needed! “Hottest year ever” was claimed recently, this snow storm isn’t real… lol
The snow is real alright. Because of the Ice Age returning which keeps the low pressures further south of Montreal,ie Boston last year, New York this. We miss all the large storms. Hallelujah.
Russell I find your lack of faith disturbing… why don’t you believe CO2 will keep us all warm? Lol
Sparks: I do believe CO2. The earth has green up buy 14% in the last 20 years. How come we never here the good side of the story.http://theconversation.com/despite-decades-of-deforestation-the-earth-is-getting-greener-38226
Imagine if this climate change continues. Wind and Solar are completely ineffective. Washington DC is relying on Coal and Oil right now to survive. There are no electric Snow Plow Trucks, there are no Wind Powered Snow Blowers, wind and solar offer zero solution to the challenges society actually face. The only thing Wind and Solar offer are money laundering schemes to keep the Democrats in power. Solyndra produced far far far more in political donations than profits.
This is a successful solution to a Liberal.
http://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360059/solar-panels-snow.png
I love it bring on the Coal.
Solyndra produced far far far more in political donations than profits.
Solyndra had profits?
You forgot natural gas.
Solyndra was a significant employer in a certain powerful California congressional district. The number of employees was unusually large for being a mostly invisible and insignificant player in its sector with unproven technology. It was looked at and rejected by all due diligence experts that looked at it including those who would evaluate it for a potential IPO filing. But it is most noteworthy for the politically directed orders to DoE program officers to look the other way while it failed with maximum exposure for the taxpayers. This is yet another black mark on political games. That money did not serve the needy or the climate or the economy. That episode should be a guidepost into the unprofessionalism of the political leaders in charge—the ones from Chicago.
What was the CO2 level in 1977? 333ppm. What is the CO2 level today? 400ppm. What was the CO2 level in the Little Ice Age? 280ppm. Clearly CO2 is the cause. What was the CO2 level during the Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warming Periods? All below 280ppm. Clearly this climate change is due to CO2.
These consensus experts want to return the globe to 350 ppm CO2. WUWT should commission an article on what the sea level was like back at 350, its rate of change, what the climate was like, the global temperatures, the global sea temperatures, the number of hurricanes, the number of tornadoes, the droughts, the floods, etc etc. My bet is that people would much prefer today vs the period before 350, especially considering the Little Ice Age.
http://350.org/
http://threefifty2pt0.wpengine.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/350ppm-chart-300_fixed.png
co2islife,
May I translate your link? Thank you:
“We need to cause mass starvation because we don’t like those brown and black people who subsist on $2 a day.”
WMO Fact Sheet No. 4 [August 1989] presented the greenhouse gases measuring stations around the globe. Also prosented changes in carbon dioxide increase from 1960 to 2000 projections. Very few stations are measuring changing composition of the atmosphere especially in tropics [by that time no data] and the Southern Hemisphere [by that time only three sites]. With such data sets, presenting unbelievable smooth curve. In 1959 carbon dioxide sites are 45 and methane sites were 5, suspended particulate matter at 84 sites. Carbon dioxide presents high diurnal variations.
While historical data/records show the unusualweather events are not new, they were there in the past and will be there in future. They are the result of combination of weather systems of a location or region.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
This is a video clip of 350.ORG . I wouldn’t hire these people to walk my dog, let alone determine policy for the globe. I love how they guy from Kentucky is singing about Coal, and now Obama has destroyed all their job opportunities.
https://youtu.be/QowL2BiGK7o?t=6m13s