Guest essay by Charles G. Battig
It is unfortunate that Charles Mackay is no longer alive to add yet another chapter or two to his insightful book of human follies, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. First published in 1841, his book chronicles in sixteen examples of crowd psychology with some of the notable economic and social foibles of the past. The preface includes his observation that “[w]e find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds on one object, and go mad in its pursuit: that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion and run after it, til their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”
Chapter headings include The Mississippi Scheme, The South-Sea Bubble, The Tulipomania, Fortune-Telling, The Magnetisers, The Crusades, and The Witch Mania. These and the other chapters were chosen by Mackay to illustrate recurring but transient moral and economic epidemics, and to “show how easily the masses have been led astray, and how imitative and gregarious men are, even in their infatuations and crimes.” The foreword by Bernard Baruch in the 1932 edition references Schiller’s dictum: “Anyone taken as an individual is tolerably sensible and reasonable – as a member of a crowd he at once becomes a blockhead.”
In current vernacular, “blockhead” seems quaint. Current terminology would be more organic; however, the message is the same.
Fast-forward almost two centuries, and those truisms remain valid and are illustrated by even more outrageous acts of mass hysteria. At the moment, a prime example is the United Nations COP21 in Paris, France. The official title is Conference of Parties, number 21. Mackay might have well termed it Crowds on Parade or perhaps Clowns on Parade. Either title is descriptive of the mass hysteria exhibited by various political entities and individuals alike, who have convened there in their belief that control of the global climate depends on offerings to the carbon dioxide demon and the elimination of the fossil fuel witch. Burning at the stake is not acceptable because of the carbon dioxide carbon footprint incurred.
Mackay’s chapter on Witch Mania provides a useful historical reference for simplistic tendencies in human nature to search out and label one entity as the guilty party, which is then hounded to death, literally. He notes: “There are so many wondrous appearances in nature for which science and philosophy cannot even now account, that it is not surprising that when natural laws were still less understood, men should have attributed to supernatural agency every appearance which they could not otherwise explain.” Our present lack of a valid scientific understanding of climate in its myriad manifestations and its complex web of interdependency on ill-defined physical variables mirrors Mackay’s observation.
Life-sustaining carbon dioxide has been targeted as the modern-day witch by the “climate COPs.” Tens of thousands of imagined witches were put to death in the 1500s-1600s before that mania had run its course. At COP21, an estimated 40,000 attendees compose a crowd mad about the fact that the climate changes relentlessly without any need for human intervention. That frustration needs an outlet, and the crowd has targeted fossil fuels and carbon dioxide.
These modern-day witch hunters have the potential to kill millions by denying the poor and less developed civilizations the benefits of reliable and relatively inexpensive energy. Those more fortunate will be forced to pay tribute to this crowd to keep their modern lifestyle, which now runs on electrical devices 24/7.
Mackay might also find room for a few additional chapters in a revised edition of his original book should he read the current press and note the reports of students conducting mass demonstrations on campus, and the racial unrest on Main Street.
Charles G. Battig, M.S., M.D., Piedmont Chapter president, VA-Scientists and Engineers for Energy and Environment (VA-SEEE). His website is www.climateis.com.
I don’t know; this doesn’t quite fit the description of a “popular delusion”, or “madness of crowds”. Too much money and power is at stake. The Climatist Industry is a hugely powerful one, with many stakeholders. The fact that it has gone this far seems to indicate that mankind itself has gone mad.
Dear Bruce,
if you read “Popular Delusions” many of the manias were about money and power, e.g. Tulipomania, The South Sea Bubble, The Mississipi Scheme. They are all in effect all pyramid schemes.. When by 2020 and the Artic Ice has not terminally declined in a ‘death spiral’, that the polar bears are expanding population and the Adele penguins are doing fine then one by one the mob will recover its’ senses. But don’t worry about the main proponents. They will have their money before manufacturing the next ‘end of times’.
As for scientific consemsus in 1900 at leat 90 % ( possibly the magical 97% ) of astronomers believed that all the moons’ craters were all due to volcanism. The science was settled. /sarc
Yes, money and power is always going to be at stake to some extent. What is being glossed over here, I believe is the scope of this thing, infecting scientific organizations, governments, schools, and all manner of media. Underlying it all is an apparent push for a world-wide government usurping the sovereignty and rights of all.
Alas, London, I think you are being optimistic.
In 2020 YOU will feel vindicated, but the world’s population will have been “educated” away from the concept of “Global Warming” which is measurable, to “Climate Change” which is neither measurable nor falsifiable. They will point to the previous month’s hurricane or drought or flood…and scream “evidence for Climate Change is occurring daily, and it is all around us.” If such nonsense works today, why not in 2020?
Indeed, the accused witches were mostly single property holders. The accusing authoritities got the property.
It ought to be pointed out that some fads and trends are relatively harmless. These should be understood to be separate from the intellectual fashions that have turned quite deadly.
May I share a quote from Karl Raimond Popper? I think it will be appreciated and enjoyed along with this article by Dr. Battig. This will take a moment to type out.
“First published in 1841, his book chronicles in sixteen examples of crowd psychology with some of the notable economic and social foibles of the past.”
Interesting that the author did not get to see the intellectual revolutionaries of the 1900’s, and the results they got.
Incidentally, all of them considered themselves to hold views based solely on scientific truths, and to be fixing all of society’s ills (as they defined them) using government power and force.
The question is, what restrains people from becoming completely swept up in destructive intellectual trends? What if that trend includes attacking agriculture, energy, and transportation, and includes eugenics/overpopulation theory? What could prevent an individual from being subsumed into a movement that can and will turn deadly? Is it relationships?
Rational, reaonable, spiritual, emotional and moral stops on the madness of intellectual revolutionaries do exist.
That is why they work so hard to rid society of them.
It’s called the Asch Effect. Read Solomon Asch, experiments in conformity.
Heretic. Blasphemer,,,,,,,to be continued
My favourite quote from Mackay, which I have posted here a couple of times:
“Every age has its peculiar folly; some scheme, project, or phantasy into which it plunges, spurred on either by the love of gain, the necessity of excitement, or the mere force of imitation. Failing in these, it has some madness, to which it is goaded by political or religious causes, or both combined.”
Fascism is periodic; not sure of the cycle interval but we seem to be approaching a peak!
Perhaps you’re right, but what is the mechanism? Or have you any wiggles to match?
“As long as the music is playing, you gotta get up and dance. We’re still dancing.”
Chuck Prince, Citigroup. 2007
I think that quote applied to the mortgage market before it crashed but I suppose it could apply to many things where easy money was being dished out for a popular delusion. Like global warming … the music is still playing and the money is still being dished out so you gotta get up and dance, there is no choice. The rewards go to those who participate in the delusion, there really isn’t any reward for those who choose to sit out the delusion. On financial matters, when the delusion ends, the aftermath crushes both the participants and skeptics anyways so you might as well be a participant.
“you gotta get up and dance, there is no choice”. Didn’t work for everyone on the Titanic, doesn’t work for me now.
Dear Bruce Cobb
you response didm’t have a reply option. But I wholeheartedly agree wih your last post.at 12:20
regards
London247
My all time favorite is Greshams Law … bad money drives good money out of circulation. Greshams Law never fails. People will circulate bad money for decades and that leads some to believe people have universally accepted bad money as being superior to good money (like gold) but the truth is exactly the opposite. Bad money always becomes a popular delusion because of Greshams Law. Sometimes you have to be very, very careful about what is actually good and what is actually bad because it can be totally counterintuitive. Along those lines I believe there are corallaries to Greshams Law … bad ideas will sometimes drive good ideas out of circulation because the bad idea is universally circulated and the good ideas, well, they get shuffled to the corner of the internet ;). You get my drift.
I remember the coin collection column for the Los Angeles Times stating flatly that Gresham’s Law obviously didn’t apply to silver quarters “because there are so many of them.” Typical LA Times drivel.
The witch trials are still ongoing:
“Leading Canadians Call for Investigation of Climate Change Denier Groups”
http://enewspf.com/2015/12/03/leading-canadians-call-for-investigation-of-climate-change-denier-groups/
“These groups attempt to discredit the established scientific consensus that global warming and climate change are real and caused by human activity,” said Dr. Thomas Duck, an atmospheric scientist at Dalhousie University. “The reality, causes, and consequences of climate change are well understood.”
Now I have never heard of most of these six “leading Canadians” except for the extreme leftist Stephen Lewis. They are part of an organization called “Ecojustice” so we know they have nothing to do with either “eco” or “justice”.
The end of the article states: “As Canada’s only national environmental law charity, Ecojustice is building the case for a better earth via the incarceration of dissenters.” OOPS, those last 5 words just slipped in there somehow. /snark
This could turn out to be a serious threat in Canada
Stephen Lewis former Canadian Ambassador to the U.S. and close friend of the late Maurice Strong.
Tzeporah Berman was with Greenpeace Canada and Greenpeace International along with other activities she has engaged in and for example Tar Sands opposition with Bill McKibben.
Canadians should pay close attention to this developing news story that you posted.
Vancouver Sun, March 29, 2012
‘Tzeporah Berman Leaves Greenpeace To Take On Harper Govt’
Scroll down to the article:
http://blogs.vancouversun.com/author/gordhamilton
Ecojustice, Canada
Board includes: Retired Justice of of the California Court of Appeals, San Francisco.
Other affiliations:
The Wildlife Conservancy, Director
Environmental Defense Fund, Trustee
Earth Justice Legal Defense Fund, Trustee
http://www.ecojustice.ca/people/judge-william-a-newsom
350.org
‘The Department of Justice Must Investigate ExxonMobil’,
Petition to Attorney General Lynch
Petition signers include:
Fred Krupp, Pres. Environmental Defense Fund
http://www.350.org/the-department-of-justice-must-investigate-exxonmobil
EDF/Environmental Defense Fund Advisory Trustees include:
William A. Newsom
http://www.edf.org/people/advisory-trustees
Ecojustice, Canada
Via Online Complaint Form, Dec.3, 2015
Commissioner of Competition
“Re: False and misleading representations about the reality, causes and consequences of global warming and climate change in contravention of the Competition Act.”
A 24 page document. And note the names of the parties “alleged”.
http://ecojustice.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2015-12-03-Application-to-Commissioner-of-Competition-re-Climate-science-misrepresentations-updated.pdf
Ecojustice , Canada Board also includes Trip Van Noppen Pres. of Earth Justice. Trip also signed the Petition to investigate ExxonMobil. See above link to the signers of the Petition.
http://www.ecojustice.ca
Earthjustice Board includes:
William Newsom also Board of Ecojustice Canada
Will Roush, also on Board of Ecojustice Canada
http://www.earthjustice.org/about/board_of_trustees
Strong ties between Ecojustice Canada and Earthjustice U.S.
Trip Van Noppen, Pres. of Earthjustice and Board of Ecojustice Canada
Wikipedia: Stephen Lewis
According to Wikipedia, Stephen Lewis is the father-in-law of Naomi Klein.
Probably should be Stephen Lewis, Canadian Ambassador to the UN and not the U.S.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Lewis
British Columbia Government
Climate Leadership Team includes:
Tzeporah Berman
Dr. Thomas F. Pedersen
www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/policy-legislation-programs/climate-leadership-team
Sometimes this link doesn’t work. Just Google
Thomas J. Duck
Latest Posts: 3 December 2015
Re: ‘Competition Commission Asked To Investigate Climate Change Denier Groups’
Dr.Duck’s commentary is @ur momisugly http://www.tomduck.ca
Humans are not “herd animals.” They form packs, like any decent predator. The preferred method of hunting was to form a large circle and then constrict it as rapidly as possible, trapping large numbers of prey within it. It worked and has been imprinted on our genes.
Here’s the rub: the most efficient circle isn’t one that constricts quickly. It’s one that leaves no gaps for animals to escape through. This requires every member to move not as fast as he can, but at the speed of the slowest member of the pack. Even today, when a mob or crowd forms, they still each adapt their physical and mental speed to that of the slowest member. This is an autonomous process.
“The Madness of Crowds”. Yes. Written back in 1800s, the subject is just as true now, as then.
I can relate to this: sad to say. Many people will remember the Azaria Chamberlain in which a young mother was jailed for killing her baby, only for it to be realised years later, that , yes, the dingo really did do it.
I was one on millions of Australians that was totally convinced by “The expert witness” (Pathologist Joy Khull) that yes, Lindy did kill her own baby.
We were wrong.
We were convinced by The Scientist, of Lindy’s guilt. The Madness of Crowds.
And now we see the same thing in Paris. “Scientists agree. Anthropogenic warming is overheating the planet”. The fact that the evidence “melted” makes no difference.
We are continuing to blow billions on a problem that never came to fruition, despite the hysteria. Billions that should have spent on real problems like clean water programs, African poverty,…………..the list of true problems is endless.
But no: “The Madness of Crowds” rules on.
Unfortunately, Mr Battig was writing too early to comment on the mob hysteria produced by pagan Nazis or the crowd manipulation of the atheistic Communists. However, he was early enough to describe the anti-Catholic mob hysteria of the Gordon Riots of 1780 and the mob hysteria produced by the French Revolution, which we are informed, was an achievement of the Enlightenment. (Incidentally, the term ‘King Mob’ arose during the Gordon Riots.)
I have been most astounded by this sociological phenomenon . And what has astounded me most is the lack of curiosity I’ve seen on both sides of the battle to understand the physics as deeply as possible . It’s perpetuated a paradigm which never should have been .
I’ve gotten diverted into this defense of rationality because it offended my childhood understanding of radiant heat transfer which was essentially Ritchie’s 1830s experiment http://cosy.com/Science/Ritchie'sKirchhoffExperiment.html turned into a Q&A in a boy’s science book about whether a white or a black stone sitting in the desert sun gets hotter .
So I did an experiment shortly after I moved to the mountains to test that my understanding wasn’t totally whack : http://cosy.com/Science/warm.htm#PingPong .
Perhaps uniquely living a life immersed in APL , executable notation more complete and succinct than traditional STEM textbooks , it was natural to start implementing the basic physics — essentially quantitatively understand the audit trail from the Sun to our surface temperature . So I started learning-by-implementing the quantitative physics — relationship by relationship , APL expression by APL expression . See http://cosy.com/Science/ClimateWiki/Category%20Essential_Physics.htm and http://cosy.com/Science/HeartlandBasicBasics.html for the progression of my understanding=implementation . At that point I myself could not fill in the , 3% on Earth , 225% on Venus ( impossible with any spectra ) gap , enforced by the Divergence Theorem , between “Top of Atmosphere” spectrally computed temperatures and measured surface temperatures . At that point , my question was what was the next parameter , the next APL expression , which would explain this gap .
I myself was caught in the paradigm .
The obvious answer to anybody with their feet firmly planted on the ground is GRAVITY . The equations are simple and universal and therefore non-optional in model which purports to model planetary temperature distribution and climate .
But it took the undeniable match to planetary atmospheric profiles of HockeySchtick’s gravity based computations , linked at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/22/why-we-live-on-earth-and-not-venus/#comment-1993285 , that it got thru to me that gravity was the non-optional parameter I was excluding from thought , it was the whole game .
BTW : I think nom-de-blogs are pebble in the way of our communicating our understanding . But Nicolas Bourbaki I claim would likely disagree .
— Bob A — | presentation of 4th.CoSy at Forth Day Hangout , 20151121 , at Stanford : https://youtu.be/0u2_jKfo0A8?t=2h48m30s |
Many I encounter don’t see what I mean when I say religion and science are, writ large, competing for the same real estate.
“There are so many wondrous appearances in nature for which science and philosophy cannot even now account, that it is not surprising that when natural laws were still less understood, men should have attributed to supernatural agency every appearance which they could not otherwise explain.”
Well, that’s what I mean.
I’m with Marcus Aurelius; I’m doing everything possible to stay sane in an insane, stupid environment.
You’ve left out the Industrial Wind Turbine[IWT] mania.