Terrorism and a cold winter refugee crisis

A brutal cold spell could kill refugees. Paris COP21 delegates need to discuss this climate issue.


A youngster braces against the cold at a camp for Syrian refugees in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley after the first winter snows fell in 2013. photo: Reuters

Guest essay by Paul Driessen and Joe D’Aleo

Even after the latest Paris massacres – and previous radical Islamist atrocities in the USA, France, Britain, Canada, Spain, India, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria and elsewhere – politicians absurdly say hypothetical manmade global warming is the greatest threat facing humanity. In reality, fossil fuel contributions to climate change pose few dangers to people or planet, and winters kill 20 times more people than hot weather.

After being assured snowy winters would soon be something only read about in history books, Europe was shaken by five brutally cold winters this past decade. Thousands died, because they were homeless, lived in drafty homes with poor heating systems, or could not afford adequate fuel.

It could happen again, with even worse consequences. “Millions of desperate people are on the march,” Walter Russell Mead recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal. “Sunni refugees driven out by the barbarity of the Assad regime in Syria, Christians and Yazidis fleeing the pornographic violence of Islamic State, millions more of all faiths and no faith fleeing poverty and oppression without end.”

Where are they heading? Mostly not into neighboring Arab countries, most of which have yanked their welcome mats. Instead, if they’re not staying in Turkey, they’re going north to Europe – into the path the extremely cold “Siberian Express” has increasingly taken. Germany alone could face the challenge of feeding and sheltering 800,000 to 1,000,000 freezing refugees this winter.

If a blast of frigid Siberian air should hit, temperatures in parts of eastern and northern Europe and the western Former Soviet Union could become 70 degrees F (39C) colder than cold spells in much of the Middle East. During the coldest Siberian outbreaks, it gets as lethally cold as -40F (-40C).

Northern and eastern Europeans are largely acclimated to such cold. However, for refugees from regions where winters average 20 to 30 degrees warmer, makeshift houses or tents will make their sojourn a bone-chilling experience. Europe’s exorbitant energy costs, resulting from its obeisance to climate chaos credos, could make this an even worse humanitarian crisis.

However, to listen to the UN, many world leaders, environmental NGOs, scientists from the climate alarm industry, and their sycophant media – especially on the eve of their Paris 2015 global warming summit – threats from cold weather are not supposed to happen. Just 15 years ago, the German paper Spiegel proclaimed, “Good-bye winter: In Germany bitter cold winters are now a thing of the past.” That same year, a British Climate Research Unit scientist said “children aren’t going to know what snow is.”

The media dutifully repeated similar claims each year, until unbelievably cold, snowy winters began hitting in 2008/09. In December 2010, England had its second-coldest December since 1659, amid the Little Ice Age. For five years, 2008-2013, snow paralyzed travel in England and northern and western Europe. Not surprisingly, the same media then blamed manmade global warming for the harsh winters.

In reality, natural Atlantic Ocean cycles lasting around 60 years control winter temperatures in Europe and Eastern North America. When the North Atlantic warms, “blocking high pressure systems” largely prevent warm Atlantic air from reaching Europe.

There is also a strong correlation between the sun’s geomagnetic activity and these blocking-induced cold winters in Europe. The five brutally cold winters ending in 2012/13 had the lowest level of solar geomagnetic activity in the entire record, dating back some 90 years.

When the North Atlantic is warm and the sun’s geomagnetic patterns are weak, these blocking patterns keep warmer Atlantic air out of Europe. Frigid air from off deep snows in Siberia can then more easily invade from the east, bringing sub-zero cold and heavy snows. That’s what happened from 2008 to 2013.

The ocean and solar factors eased in 2013, and the last two years have seen more Atlantic air and milder winters. However both solar and ocean patterns are starting to return to the situation where cold invasions are more likely. That could usher in nasty surprises for the Middle Eastern refugees.

Even this year’s early winter October cold brought news stories about Syrian children becoming sick amid exposure to colder weather than they were used to. In Austria, adults and children alike were already complaining about the weather and wishing they could go home.

In fact, cold weather kills 20 times more people than hot weather, according to a Lancet medical journal study that analyzed 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. It should be required reading for the 40,000-plus bureaucrats, politicians, activists and promoters who will soon descend on Paris, to enjoy five-star hotels and restaurants while blathering endlessly about dire threats of global warming.

They should ponder the fact that the Lancet study reflects normal societies in peaceful countries. Even there, many more people die each year during the four winter months than in the eight non-winter months. Indeed, there even the United States experiences some 100,000 Excess Winter Deaths per year.

In the United Kingdom, the winter death rate is about twice as high as in the USA: excess winter deaths range up to 50,000 per year – due to the UK’s poorer home insulation and heating systems, and much higher energy costs caused by its climate and renewable energy policies.

The refugees’ excess winter death toll could well be even greater, due to the high cost of European energy and the migrants’ extreme poverty, poor nutrition, inadequate clothing and blankets, preexisting diseases, and makeshift housing: tents, trailers and other dwellings that have little or no insulation or central heat.

Systematic misinformation about the dangers of fossil fuels and hot versus cold weather has helped make this crisis much worse than needs be. Climate alarmists will thus bear the blame for thousands of avoidable deaths among refugees this winter, especially if the Siberian Express invades once again.

The Paris climate conferees need to focus on humanity’s real and immediate dangers: this rapidly growing refugee crisis, abysmal EU economies and job losses – and the billions worldwide who still lack the adequate, reliable, affordable energy required to end their crushing poverty, malnutrition, disease and early death, by ensuring clean water, proper sanitation, modern hospitals, lights, refrigerators and plentiful food. The climate conferees must address the following much more pressing questions.

How is climate change more important than safeguarding refugees who are already suffering from cold weather? Should conferees be focused on hypothetical future manmade climate chaos, while EU nations squabble over who will take how many refugees and potential terrorists, amid a possible winter crisis? What contingency plans do they have for another bout of frigid weather possibly invading the continent?

When a million refugees are freezing in squalid conditions with inadequate shelter, food, heat, clothing and medical care, and 1.3 billion people still do not have electricity – why would the world commit to spending billions on alleged future global warming catastrophes? As Bjorn Lomborg puts it, why would the world also want to give up nearly $1 trillion in GDP every year for the rest of this century, to avert a total hypothetical (computer modeled) temperature rise of just 0.306 degrees C (0.558 F) by 2100?

Where will the money come from to combat growing war and terrorism, aid the millions displaced by these horrors, rebuild devastated cities, put millions of people back to work, and bring electricity and better lives to billions of others – if we continue this obsession over global warming? Do humans really play a big enough roll in climate change to justify these incomprehensible price tags? Where is the actual evidence? Not computer models or press releases – the actual evidence?

It would be an unconscionable crime against humanity, if the nations gathering in Paris implement policies to protect our planet’s energy-deprived masses from hypothetical manmade climate disasters decades from now, by perpetuating poverty and disease that kill millions more people tomorrow.

These are the real reasons climate change is a critical moral issue. We need to we recognize that, and stop playing games with people’s lives. We must acknowledge that horrific computer model scenarios do not reflect planetary reality – and must not guide energy policy.

Joe D’Aleo is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and American Meteorological Society Fellow and co-founder of The Weather Channel. Paul Driessen is senior policy analyst for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow. Climate experts Allan MacRae and Madhav Khandekar contributed to this article.

112 thoughts on “Terrorism and a cold winter refugee crisis

  1. There wouldn’t be a refugee crisis if the UN would setup safe areas, and a coalition of the willing would confront the threat to native people on the ground, instead of evading responsibility for this man-made disaster through shifting people around the world.

    • This approach might now work.
      The reason is that the ISIS terrorists have targeted Russian and Chinese citizens as well as the recent atrocities in France.
      France and Russia have now declared war on ISIS and the USA has moved up a gear.
      Surely no one would now veto a UN resolution calling for
      The elimination of ISIS and Al Querida
      Safe zones in Syria
      Then fresh elections in Syria under strict United Nations supervision
      Both Assad and Free Syrian Rebels claim to have the backing of the majority of Syrians.
      It would then become clear who has the backing of the Syrian people.
      The newly elected government should be given military and financial support to get Syria back on the path of a sustainable peace

      • Too late. You had your chance and did next to nothing for an entire year. You will now do what the Russians tell you or you will be even more irrelevant than you currently are. Sorry but nobody trusts the USA to get things done.
        Here is what will probably happen. By the time the west gets something before the UN the situation on the ground will be a ” fait accompli”. Syria itself will become a safe zone as the Shia, Sunni, Druze and Christians with their Russian allies will simply clean house. The refugees will be returning home before the west gets its act together.

      • The US hasn’t moved up anything Brian. And why would we need to? Our President has told us that he has ISIS contained and that his strategy is working.

      • TRM
        You will now do what the Russians tell you or you will be even more irrelevant than you currently are.
        The current President of the U.S.A. may have made himself irrelevant but rest assured the United States itself is not.
        True before 9:00am we can cause more death devastation destruction and desolation before then all other countries do all day.
        Just a little light music to set the “mood”


      • You guys are funny. The ability and the will to do things are 2 different items. Yes you have the ability but you do not have the will and you haven’t in a long long time. It is not just your current imbecile in chief but your previous ones as well. Your invasion and occupation of Afghanistan after 15 years has the Taliban taking over again. In Iraq the Shia are taking over with militias run out of Iran. Brilliant. If you think that keeping more troops there longer would solve it you are wrong. It would only delay it. You would lose more lives and money but in the end you’d declare victory and leave. No staying power and everyone in the world knows it.

      • The United Nations is incapable of supervising a hot dog gorging contest.
        And you are talking about having elections in a region that is incompatible with democratic concepts.

      • Careful TRM…That’s OUR Imbecile in Chief you are talking about and we will form a committee and debate about destroying you for implicating his impotence

    • Not clear what the “man-made disaster” is that you are referring to. I categorically reject any notion that my country has any “responsibility” with respect to the disaster that has been the Middle East since the dawn of history. Legally, the UN has no standing to tell my country what to do. (I would point out that morally the UN is on even weaker ground.) We are a sovereign nation and the UN can burn down for all I care. Morally, I may believe it is valid to believe we should help other less fortunate persons, but resources are limited and I may choose to help someone other than those in the Middle East with my/our limited resources.

      • If we just left it alone, the situation would eventually migrate to the surrounding Arab states and they would have to take care of a problem that they, as brethren, helped create.

      • Migrating to the surrounding Arab Nations is exactly what ISIS is hoping for. Their goal is to unite the Arab World against the remainder and have their Ji-Had

      • Patrick B: I categorically reject any notion that my country has any “responsibility” with respect to the disaster that has been the Middle East since the dawn of history

        Which country is that?

    • And where would the UN set up these safe areas; given that there are more than a billion people on this planet (at least) who believe that they have a right to invade and take over the territory where they suppose that some anthropoid ancestor had a favorite fig tree they climbed up into for safety and free clean green renewable sustenance. Who are you going to displace for your safe zones ??
      People who signed onto the UN charter agreed to refrain from forcibly grabbing territory that somebody else is already occupying, and to settle their claims in amicable negotiations.

      • All 5 star hotels must now include 18 roll away beds in every suite to house the Syrian Refugees during the COP21 Conference

  2. It seems civilization only learns the nature of reality through abject tragedy.
    So sad! Woe on to us. GK

  3. Almost as if by moving refugees around the world, the UN appears to potentially be perpetuating thier own need and existence to the world..that can’t be happening…right?

    • It is. UNCHR is supposed to be a temporary UN agency after world war II. It is now one of the biggest and most influential UN agency

  4. I like how Assad and his poor country are blamed by the Wall Street Journal for all the ISIS fighters who came pouring in across the border from Iraq.

    • And there I was thinking it was Israels fault or Margaret Thatcher’s, or Tony Abbott’s, or Simon de Montford l’Amaury’s or Richard the Lion Heart’s or Peter the Hermit’s or Walter Sans Avoir’s or Raymond of Saint-Gilles’s or any number of other historical westerners.
      Why poor old Mr Assad? Just because his dad, Hafez al-Assad, sided with the Ruskies during the cold war the WSJ wants to judge the son for the sins of the father. Don’t they teach thinking in USA journalist schools any more?

      • I’d like to see some other nation decide uSSa needs ITS leader deposed..
        as it really does
        Id buy popcorn n sit back for a laugh at the kerfuffle following that:-)

  5. Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
    “It would be an unconscionable crime against humanity, if the nations gathering in Paris implement policies to protect our planet’s energy-deprived masses from hypothetical manmade climate disasters decades from now, by perpetuating poverty and disease that kill millions more people tomorrow.”
    The big i-r-o-n-y right there.

  6. If the money wasted by climate “scientists” had been used to alleviate the poverty of the Third World and help the refugees, millions of lives would have been saved.
    Biggest crime of the century but they seem to sleep at night knowing they have “saved the planet”. Yeah right!

    • But what does alleviate poverty mean? If it means continuing to provide money and food the end result is just wasted money, time and effort. What is needed in the third world is education. Teaching trades and skills. So that these countries have the trained manpower they need to build houses and roads and all the rest. The training to repair machinery. They need their own citizens that know plumbing, electrical installation, carpentry. They need to find and develop all sources of energy they have within their borders. Provide them not only the machines for modern farming but the skills to maintain the equipment.
      Handouts only guarantee more handouts. It does nothing to solve the problem. It does nothing to make Third World countries self sufficient.

      • There are many ways to alleviate poverty other than dumping money into a country. Many organizations have learnt since the futility of the 1980s, and now have sound strategies. Letting people die is not a moral answer to the problem you mentioned.

      • Myron, most reasonable statement of all. If our efforts were truly humanitarian, we would teach these nations and people to be self reliant as they develop the education, training, and experience needed to be free of terrorists and develop personal and national liberty. From this liberty would blossom strong countries, fair societies, and individual and national self reliance.

      • Case in point, Mugabe inviting farmers back to Zimbabwe to help prevent people from starving in the heart of Africa’s breadbasket. The third-world only needs to host a hospitable environment and develop their natural and human resources in order to migrate to a first-world quality of life.

      • “n.n
        November 20, 2015 at 9:58 am
        Case in point, Mugabe inviting farmers back to Zimbabwe to help prevent people from starving in the heart of Africa’s breadbasket.”
        He did nothing of the sort. He invited black Zimbaweans back to what was once productive farms who were not farmers and had no idea what to do. The end result was that breadbasket was turned in to a basket case.

      • Myron, you statement ” If it means continuing to provide money and food the end result is just wasted money, time and effort” is a straw man that you proceed to demolish for us. Thanks.
        Poverty alleviation has worked. 1.3 billion people have been lifted out of poverty over the last 30 years through the adoption of capitalist free market economics linked to the rule of law – even in China.
        Nothing else works.

  7. Some good points but you would do better to not quote the propaganda from the WSJ. “Sunni refugees driven out by the barbarity of the Assad regime in Syria,”. Funny but no mention that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are the prime financial supporters of the Wahhabist sect of Islam which gave rise to the Taliban, Chechen, Daesh, Boko, etc extremists and their terror. Don’t expect it any time soon.
    For a year the USA didn’t do anything of note with their air strikes. Now Russia has just destroyed 500 tankers trucks in a single day. At the G20 Putin gave a list of people in 40 countries who are financially supporting Daesh including some of the G20.
    Stop creating refugees by destroying their countries would be a good start. Don’t worry, everyone knows who to call for help now and it isn’t the USA. If you have a psycho bully to deal with are you going to get Mr Rogers or Joe Pesci’s (Goodfellas character) to help? Everyone knows who can deliver and who can’t (or won’t).

    • ‘Funny but no mention that Saudi Arabia and Qatar are the prime financial supporters of the Wahhabist sect of Islam which gave rise to the Taliban, Chechen, Daesh, Boko, etc extremists and their terror.’
      TRM, you make very valid points. But, the whole fluid and protean mess in the ME almost goes beyond comprehension. The Iranian Revolution in 1979 and resultant installation of the Ayatollah Khomeini as supreme leader of Iran, and the 1979 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan were pivotal events that we are still living with today.
      Shortly after Khomeini assumed power Saddam Hussein left Iraq, traveling to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. In Amman, King Hussein of Jordan prevailed upon Saddam to meet with senior CIA officials present in the capital city at that time. The contents of the meeting are unknown but it’s widely assumed the discussion centered around Saddam’s decision to invade Iran when he became leader of Iraq. In fact, it is known that that was discussed with the King of Saudi Arabia when he traveled there from Amman. All 3 of those countries were tacit US allies. Saddam wanted US support. And the Carter administration gave it. The resultant 8 year Iran/Iraq war would be estimated to have cost up to a million and a half casualties: many of them civilian; many of them children used as human fodder to clear minefields. President Carter would go on to receive the Nobel Peace Prize.
      The Reagan administration engineered a stalemate in that war: when Iran became ascendant covert assistance would be given to Iraq; when Iraq became ascendant Iran would receive it. Nobody wanted either side to have the regional power that victory in that war would’ve conferred upon it.
      Up to that time the ME was moderately secular, with the exception of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. But, since the collapse of the caliphate in WW1, and the emergence of secular Ataturk in Turkey, it had always been a dream throughout the ME for a return to a society governed by the dictates of the Koran. [Sayid Qutb (the patron saint for both Osama bin Laden, and the Muslim Brotherhood) exemplified that dream until he was finally executed by the communist leaning, sharkskin suited, sunglasses adorned, president of Egypt, Abdul Nasser; I believe in the early 1960s.] The Iranian Revolution and the Ayatollah Khomeini represented the reality of this dream.
      But, Iran is not Arab. It’s Persian. And it’s not predominantly Suuni Muslim. It’s Shiite Muslim. The realization of that dream in Iran posed a threat to the Arab ME and its leadership.
      I believe (I may be wrong) that the worldwide sponsorship and financing by Saudi Arabia of the Wahhabi Madrassas was an attempt to counter any worldwide expansion of revolutionary Iran’s version of Islam. (And, have no doubt, Iran has been doing so – witness its presence in South America.)
      The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan indirectly furthered all of this. It may shock people to see old photographs of young women, smiling, with hair flowing freely – and, wearing miniskirts – walking the streets of downtown Kabul in the late 1960s, early 70s. But it wasn’t unusual. To counter the Soviets the Mujahideen were employed, and, well, coupled with the Madrassas’, one now has the Afghanistan we see today.
      There’s much more, but perhaps the most important issue is the collapse in self confidence that has occurred in the West. I’m certain most normal young Afghan women would much rather be cavorting down the street, laughing and talking freely, in their miniskirts, then cocooned in dour, life sapping Burqhas. But, we in the West, have lost the cultural self confidence to export and champion our way of life. Instead, we self loath it. The results are all around us. And, it’s quite likely that CAGW is just one more instance of this self loathing. So sad.

    • TRM
      Don’t worry, everyone knows who to call for help now and it isn’t the USA.
      Oh do you mean calls like this?
      Oh yeah two days prior to the Russia attacks American A-10s and and 2 “Puff the Magic Dragoons” blew away 116 of these tanker trucks.
      Nice of the Russians two finally start to bomb ISIS rather then the insurgents.
      Oh yeah in other news..
      US Special Forces were there to help but where was Ivan.
      And where is Putin on helping Europe cope with the Refugee crises? Where is his pledge to take in 100,000 refugees. Yup call Russia for help you only get a dial tone.
      But then TRM ,,You are a very funny guy.

      • After Putin gave satellite photos to the G20 showing the lines of tanker trucks going over the horizon THEN the US does something. Bravo. A year late and had to be publicly shamed into it but sure keep drinking your government’s Koolaid.
        The “insurgents” in Syria? El Nusra you mean? They’ve taken the brunt of the Russian bombing so far but they are Wahhabis just like Daesh. Just can’t agree on who will be in charge. Russia will help Assad’s forces take all the area near their bases first then move out. Bummer for El Nusra but they were closest to the Russian bases so they get the brunt of it first.
        As to Mali the civil war there since 2012 has been going. The French did such a good job at intervening that 3 years later it’s still going. Syria will be straightened out before Mail. I’m sure in time they too will tire of American and French “help” and ask for effective assistance.

    • ++++ 😉
      and the not insignificant pipeline Qatar n buddies want to slide through syria
      which just happens to have en elected leader who said?
      so much like the afghan area having minerals galore and handy for a pipeline as well..

  8. During the American Civil War the grounds of Robert E. Lee’s plantation were converted to a graveyard. The morbid intent was that the bodies his actions created would be returned to him on his property. Thus, was created Arlington National Cemetery.
    Observing the meltdown in Libya [the blowback from the Obama administration and NATO backed misnamed ‘Arab Spring’ (what PR firm created that name?)]; the meltdown in Iraq (from the Obama administration’s premature withdrawal of US ground forces); the escalating tensions in Afghanistan (from the Obama administration’s ill advised drawdown of US forces); and the complete disintegration in Syria (from the Obama administration drawing red lines, erasing red lines, promoting an unvetted and ill equipped rebel force, and failing to confront the “Jayvee” team during its formation); I’m wondering who’s property we should send the migrants (and bodies) to. If Obama’s intent on leading from behind in the Middle East how about if he leads from behind at the Paris Climate Conference? Or, perhaps he wishes his post presidential estate to be even more crowded.

    • Tom,
      It wasn’t so much withdrawing troops from Iraq, as it was President Obama’s washing his hands of the entire situation after he withdrew them. He basically allowed the shia politicians to marginalize the Sunni minority and at the same time drift closer to Iran.

  9. Paul Driessen and Joe D’Aleo:
    Thankyou for your essay.
    The contents of your essay need saying again, and again, and again. But few are saying it. And you said it well.
    I repeat, thankyou.

  10. Ain’t gonna happen. The press will never embrace the Syrian refugee problem conflated with low temperatures. Instead they will conspire to present images of thirsty children, trembling hands reaching for tin cups of water.
    I just did a search for Syrian Thirsty Children and got a bunch of hits.
    There is no such a thing as snow in the desert according to the media.
    I guess we skeptics have to learn how to demagogue mommy baby poverty and cripples better. uggg no I have principles. Socialists don’t.

  11. Thank you Joe. Your analysis was thorough as it was thoughtful. We better start applying common sense to these massive realities that face us or we are going to be watching a lot of innocent people dying for no reason. God help the fools in charge of the alarmist propaganda machine. If like Goebbels they would only see the end and take appropriate action… just leave the kids… some lovely warmist somewhere will raise them in the sun…. into a happy and prosperous life.

  12. Let’s see…General Winter made war against the French in 1812, and killed 300,000 of them. The Russians called on their famous General in WWII, and again, he killed almost as many as in 1812, without firing any ammunition. Evidently, the “refugees” do not study history. Or they are complete Gorebull Warming “believers”. May their cold fate, not come upon us Nordic types who know what to do when General Winter comes calling.

  13. You are assuming that the goal of Nu EnvironMENTALism is humanitarian in nature. It is not. They worship the idea of a pre-civilization planet, where humans return to being apart of the food chain and live in caves.

    • RW
      MOST humans return to being apart of the food chain and live in caves.
      Now, guess who has self-selected themselves for privileged post-civilisation priority?
      I’m sure you know – it’s the Nu EnvironMENTALists you rightly excoriate.

  14. Unfortunately, such communications fall on ideological and corrupted educational deaf ears. The Malthusian elites at the command post actually will rejoice if millions die, anyway. The useful fools below them in academia and institutions are Pavlov’s dogs salivating at grants from Pavlov and their Climate Change is Schroedinger’s cat. There is no waking such types up – it needs a new slate from the top down.
    The miserable economy is a disease created by the above. A draconian change in governments is priority number one to put all these things right. A much chided and ridiculed Donald Trump-type is what I envision as the 11th hour solution. Such a guy may be easy to make fun of, but his type is the only kind who would be prepared to not just stop but reverse most of the idiocy that ‘reasonable people’ think is too big to fail (Reagan’s legacy). I note that Trump got a bump up from the Paris massacre. Drastic Government and institutional change and states of emergency will be necessary to save us all from this nightmare. A gradual approach will not do.
    Were I in a position to advise the UK’s UKIP, the only alternative on the horizon for such a task, I would say drop unnecessary omnibus ideological silliness to make yourself more attractive to the electorate. Concentrate on your policies re getting out of the EU (there is no fixing it), UN (they created it), ending idiotic immigration policy, erasing climate and energy stupidity and concentrate on good old national interest, strong fiscal policy, rebuilding industry, defunding the existing overblown higher edcuation nightmare, chopping it down to high standard meritorious scholarship without political propaganda, even your own. Defund most government and non government institutions and save only essential ones as measured by national interest, etc. etc. The very successful Conservative Party in Canada was reborn through dismantling the parent Reform Party’s untenable return of capital punishment, anti-abortion-type stuff and getting rid of Jurassic MPs. People liked their fiscal policy and small government but couldn’t go for the fringy stuff. The UK has the mighty English-speaking world for economic, political and social intercourse to replace the a dying Europe (once rid of Merkel, we could make Germany an honorary member of the block). Maybe choose India to be a coordinating advisor/manager of it until the rest of us have been re-educated.

    • UKIP should not take a position on any really divisive issue that would lose it votes. It should say that on such issues it will follow the results of national referendums, or at least of very well-designed polls.

    • “A draconian change in governments is priority number one to put all these things right.”
      There are local elections in France on Dec. 5 & 9. If Le Pen’s party wins, it might win in the next national election. If that happens, it might not honor the Paris Climate treaty. It might say that in advance; if it did, it would derail the bandwagon.

    • If as Gary says,” UK’s UKIP, the only alternative on the horizon for such a task”, then we really have got problems!!

  15. It has become obvious to me that if we are running out of time on climate change, it is because of imminent, abrupt cooling. We appear to be about to experience the coincidence of several cyclic low-points.
    Scientific prudence should motivate a change of direction in research towards coping with and possibly mitigating the obvious challenges this presents for humanity.
    Right now the fight on climate is like Clark Griswold driving the ‘turf truckster’ off the end of the highway at full speed.

  16. It could happen again, with even worse consequences.
    Not ‘could’, ‘will’. We in the North are fully aware of what is coming (Winter) and have had many thousands of years of preparation for this. My only problem now is that our idiot politicians have been busily passing laws that prevent my use of thousands of years of (family knolwedge) ‘preparation’ in order to solve some entirely theoretical UN finance problem.
    We, in The UK, know that sub-zero temperatures and Arctic winds are on the way in the next few days. Anyone with a brain cell left functioning knows that we need ‘energy’ in order to survive. Our Politicians think not. Good luck to them.
    Let us see what happens this (UK) week? If that ‘forecast’ proves correct and I, having no access to regular fuel (Black or Brown outs), need ‘fuel’ to keep MY family alive over Winter, much against ‘Government Regulation’. Then ‘Government Regulation’ be f****d and its representatives be f****d also.
    Heads on spikes is a long English tradition.
    You think ‘Game of Thrones’ is Sci Fi? Read up your English history. Don’t forget which was the first of the ‘modern’ nations that started cutting off heads once the ‘ruling class’ became a little too detached from reality.

  17. The budget plan is already in place from the American model. Just add three or four more zeros to the balance sheet of the ECB. Done.

  18. We have found PARADISE !
    Arriving in Germany, without documents in town A , make a request for German refuge documents, money, etc., move on to town B,C, D, E, F, etc, a Syrian man and his family were arrested for shoplifting and had ( 3 adults 6 children ) 43 German refuge passports between then. When asked WHY ? the reply was “everybody else is doing it ! It is called the German Money Tree!

  19. I’m beginning to wonder if it’s worth fighting this losing battle. First, how many people even care about this issue. Second, in the divided camps of CAGW people and skeptics, how many bother to read this or think about that they might be wrong. The numbers are pretty small. Government is going to push this through regardless. That’s the climate issue.
    Refugees, even if vetted they are still bringing their extreme religion with them. I have concerns that we are going to live in a state of constant war. They are not making life here better. Obama said that this view is not who we are or about. Neither is being totally stupid to the reality of this world. Bringing them here serves no purpose.
    If in conjunction with reduction of carbon emissions, lack of power and economic downturn, a brutally cold winter might snap some of these deluded politicians to wake up. However, there could be a tipping point politically where you have war in europe again.

  20. That’s it, the increase in negative NAO since the mid 1990’s has driven the warm AMO mode, due to the decline in solar since then. The cold winter episodes (-ve AO/NAO episodes) are due to short term and predictable solar factors, and can happen in a warm or a cold AMO mode, though winters would be turning colder than normal more often during a warm AMO as that’s when solar is weaker:

  21. “During the coldest Siberian outbreaks, it gets as lethally cold as -40F (-40C).”
    The refugees are not migrating to Siberia, so why is this statistic relevant?

    • Sometime it gets that cold during the winter in some of the countries of Europe that are taking in refugees:
      Funtensee is a lake in the Steinernes Meer plateau in the Nationalpark Berchtesgaden, Bavaria, Germany.
      Known as the coldest spot in Germany, the lake is the site where the country’s record lowest temperature, −45.9 °C (-50.6 °F),[4][5][6] was recorded on 24 December 2001. It is theorised that due to the unique situation of trapped cold air, a temperature of -55 °C (-67 °F) is possible.[7] The extreme cold spot at the lake is said to result in a reverse tree line, as no trees can grow at any point below about 60m above the lake,[6] although studies have found that it was the result of overgrazing animals.[3] Temperatures are regularly monitored by a private weather station installed by Jörg Kachelmann.[8]

  22. Does anybody REALLY believe that these tens of thousands of people going to Paris (via fossil fuel burning conveyances no doubt) are REALLY worried about the fate of future generations of humanity, people who will be born at some far distant, mythical future time, people who will be here long after the worriers are dead and gone? Could these same worriers simultaneously be so blind to the fate of actual living human beings, many of whom are suffering from the ravages of war and poverty RIGHT NOW, most of whom will be the first to suffer from the lack of abundant, affordable energy brought on by CO2 emission reduction policies? I don’t buy it for a minute! I doubt that Mother Theresa spent any time worrying about carbon dioxide, and she didn’t tool around the planet in a POTUS sized 747 lecturing others on the need to go green.

    • curiously..all the “we are overpopulated” pundits pushing agw drivel as “for their children /grandkids”
      intend having kids
      if they really cared?
      theyd get neutered NOW and set us all a fine example of selfless concern for the planet
      for gaia doncha know 😉

  23. Joe and I also wrote this article on Excess Winter Mortality:
    “Contrary to popular belief, Earth is colder-than-optimum for human survival. A warmer world, such as was experienced during the Roman Warm Period and the Medieval Warm Period, is expected to lower winter deaths and a colder world like the Little Ice Age will increase winter mortality, absent adaptive measures. These conclusions have been known for many decades, based on national mortality statistics.
    In Europe, where green energy schemes have been widely implemented, the result is higher energy costs that are unaffordable for the elderly and the poor, and increased winter deaths. European politicians are retreating from highly-subsidized green energy schemes and returning to fossil fuels. When misinformed politicians fool with energy systems, innocent people suffer and die.”
    Regards, Allan

  24. “…billions worldwide who still lack…”
    How did we get what we have? How did they get what they have? Food for thought.

  25. >>However, for refugees from regions where
    >>winters average 20 to 30 degrees warmer
    It does get pretty nippy in Syria. I got snowed in for two days in Damascus, mainly because they did not have any decent snow clearing equipment. But especially up in the mountainous regions in eastern Anatolia, it is darn cold in the winter.

  26. Is the end game beginning? I am noticing a cooling in public interest in global warming and more hysterical alarmism in response.My daughter in the UK has reported her worries about winter cold and the word “warming” is now being used ironically and sarcastically. The same here in NZ the promised warmth has not eventuated even at the end of winter. The refugees are rightly to be pitied and their increased susceptibility to death by cold may become the political event of the year.
    The author’s post is to be commended. Thanks, I have been wondering what to say to our Bishop who is promoting a public march on the 28th. NZ wide only 6762 have signed up so it is not exciting much interest.
    To let ignorance govern our future is unconscionable. To destroy others right to their hope for a better life based on ideology and wishful models is actionable.
    I hear the warnings in these columns about the lack of warming for 18 yrs+ and think of the word cusp. The faux 97% ignore the serious scientists with well founded opinions suspicious that we may be actually entering a significant cooling phase.
    Is the recent Paris event a false flag to enable excluding undesirable climate opponents and to provide a pressure cooker for the predetermined theft of sovereignty?

  27. 2oldnwise4us by far
    Five links, and possibly an idea about campuses.
    I’m a simple sailor – help me get under way and making way first.

  28. People, I’ve had to delete a number of comments because they ventured into out our list of prohibited topics, and then veered wildly off-topic.
    STOP IT.
    I don’t give a rodents posterior what you all think about that political issue. And dbstealy, you should know better than to engage on this.
    I’ll close the thread if it keeps up.

  29. Where are they heading? Mostly… they’re going north to Europe – into the path the extremely cold “Siberian Express” has increasingly taken. Germany alone could face the challenge of feeding and sheltering 800,000 to 1,000,000 freezing refugees this winter.”
    …refugees’ excess winter death toll could well be even greater, due to the high cost of European energy and the migrants’ extreme poverty, poor nutrition, inadequate clothing and blankets, preexisting diseases, and makeshift housing: tents, trailers and other dwellings that have little or no insulation or central heat.

    Climate alarmists have already claimed that both terrorism and refugee crises are offshoots of climate trends. French authorities should stand ready with a shepherd’s crook to haul any such claimants at the COP-21 forum. It is tragic, but fittingly ironic, that one of the greatest migrations in human history intrude upon this year’s climate morality play. To exercise my own right to hyperbole…
    Paris was the epicenter of yet another barbaric terrorist attack whose perpetrators spring from the unsettled Middle East. While such plots fester and erupt out of one sick mind after another, they have naught to do with climate. Caught between Daesh, starvation economies, and the barrel bombs of Assad, Syrians join the human tide from the Levant moving north and west, and France, with its 7% muslim poplulation, the largest in Europe, must undertake a leadership role in addressing the problem.
    French leaders now have good reason to turn their backs on the climate agenda and support a pragmatic policy shift which might stem the current, extraordinary influx of refugees, obviate the need to close European borders, and save their country billions of euros per year – money they will clearly need to settle their burgeoning immigrant populations.
    At the present rate of emigration, a safe zone in Syria will require that a virtual city be built, supplied by gigaWatts of energy, hopefully through a legitimate market. It is by no means “too late”, and the sooner it is undertaken the better. Estimates of the numbers of people fleeing the Middle East to Europe are in the tens of thousands per day. Most Syrians are leaving their country unwillingly, and many profess a strong desire to return when it is safe. It is clear that they are fleeing for their lives. A large, well-run safe zone within Syria, facilitated by U.N. and protected multilaterally, including a rigorously-enforced no-fly zone, would enable most of the refugees, currently without other options, to remain in their own country where they can still legally vote, and where they can return quickly to their homes once Assad is deposed. Expatriated Syrians will only be able to return if they can rejoin a working population in Syria, with whom they can pick up the pieces.
    Where will the money come from to establish and protect such a “Safe Zone”?
    The Lomborg article estimates that climate leaders are planning actions that will reduce world GDP by a trillion dollars per year beginning in 2030 until at least the end of the century. As hosts of this multi-trillion-dollar spend-fest, France has a captive audience and an opportunity to inject some reality into the discussion. Hollande must stand up for his country, and shift the discussion to where it belongs, removing the climate change fiasco from consideration. Perhaps he could say this:

    As the new coalition of forces puts an end to the war in Syria and exterminates the criminal Daesh threat, world powers must put aside their childish climate chimera and deal with millions of displaced people, among whom, we must imagine, are enemies we will never see though they seek to do us harm. This, we now know, is the real economic and social trial facing Western Europe, and soon America. While we are bombing and destroying, we must also pledge ourselves to build and preserve infrastructure for the people whom we displace. The rising storm is not in our atmosphere, though its cause is, as you say, anthropogenic. It is instead, a cascade of humanity, on the level we so rarely see in an aerial campaign. Perhaps we are the casualties of our own bad policies in the past, but let the response to the storm be of our making. Think of it. In the midst of the destruction mankind has wrought in the Levant, we may engender hope.
    France hereby rejects the extortive COP-21 claims upon our economy, and urges all the G-8 and other co-signing countries, to abjure the tragic, self-indulgent waste-on-top-of-waste politicization of climate put forth in these proposals. Let us instead begin to build together… a place where all faiths will find safe harbor and real, affordable energy in the midst of the Middle-Eastern chaos, and preserve our own scarce resources for those most in need.

  30. didn’t take long –
    “The science is very clear that because of the carbon emissions that we send in, mostly from the use of fossil fuels–oil, gas, coal–the temperatures worldwide, on average, are getting higher,” blah, blah, sigh
    I missed the “prohibited topics” rantings above, but wish it was this bs that was prohibited …

  31. The so-called refugees are not desperate poor souls escaping the hell of Syria; only 20% are form Syria and 75% of them are young males of military age.
    No. Europe is suffering an Islamic invasion, gratis Turkey and Europe.
    Sorry to go off-topic and political, but this is a major catastrophy for the West.

    • When I was small we lived next to a Coca-Cola bottling plant. In the winter the delivery drivers would start trays of charcoal and slide them on to a rack underneath the shelves for the cases of colas, orange, cherry, etc. carbonated drinks. Such protected the drinks while in the truck on the way to another heated building.

  32. It is interesting how in institutions and government group think replaces reality. I was reading the latest Scientific American and of course there is an article on climate change.
    First, do they realize it is no longer 2001?
    Second, do they realize that not one prediction/projections has come about?
    Third, the amount of SLR or temperature that they are alarmed about is no where near the levels, with 95% certainty, that they should be.
    Fourth, “dumping co2 into the atmosphere” evidently they aren’t looking at the levels that are remaining in the atmosphere. The highest year for ppm was 1998. And yet, the amount of co2 we produce keeps increasing.
    Fifth, tree ring data. It was a big deal when it came out. The IPCC had to have been aware, I should have been aware, of a study done on the bonding isotopic in relation to temperatures. It matches the various warm and cold cycles to at least 930 ad. It would have ended that debate before it got started. How Penn state could have defended such science is beyond my imagination.
    In regards to the current climate talks. Via established institutions and government groups that have an agenda, I don’t think that any amount of rebuttal will change their minds. Their science is just wrong. The danger in believing wrong science is that a concurrent danger is probably there that is being overlooked.
    Indeed, women and children, if that were the case. Is that’s what’s happening in Europe? The US is bringing in 10,000 Islamic fighters. They’ll be grateful to see the blood of non believers flow. They have a totally different mind set. Having a good life doesn’t mean the same thing. They kill people at parties, sporting events, shoppers, vacationers and music. They hate all of that. They’re not breaking into prisons to kill murderers. As someone pointed out, ever hear of the royal Saudi ballet, or philharmonic?
    To sum up, for a lot of different reasons, the current administration should be careful. It may get what it asks for. In the long run, the US will remain the same. Regardless of the trouble that some people bring. If these people come here as enemies, may the climate summit be successful, and they freeze to death.

    • rishrac, I have thought for several years now that the fact that 1997/98 led to the highest increase of CO2 gained, is indicative of the mishandling of the NOAA/GISS land based temp set. They may have manipulated and adjusted their temp data, but they forgot to think about what the Mauna Loa CO2 data is suggesting. This also explains why the satellite sets and the radiosonde temp set have it right.

      • What’s interesting is the 3 years following 1998. Man made co2 production levels fell below 1965? That what the numbers are saying. If CAGW says that we are responsible for the increase in co2, then explain this. Lately, the increase, for the last 5 years, has been over a billion metric tons per year over year. (a total of at least 5 bmt per year now). And still the highest level was in 1998.

  33. The same refugees that are inundating the countries that claimed they were peaceful victims with men of fighting age. It is misleading to post pictures of children to tug at heartstrings when that is not the case.

  34. “””…and winters kill 20 times more people than hot weather.
    After being assured snowy winters would soon be something only read about in history books, Europe was shaken by five brutally cold winters this past decade. Thousands died, because they were homeless, lived in drafty homes with poor heating systems, or could not afford adequate fuel.
    It could happen again, with even worse consequences. “Millions of desperate people are on the march,” Walter Russell Mead recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal. “Sunni refugees driven out by the barbarity of the Assad regime in Syria, Christians and Yazidis fleeing the pornographic violence of Islamic State, millions more of all faiths and no faith
    fleeing poverty and oppression without end…”””
    Refuges fleeing drug lords and warlords in Mexico, Central and South America.
    Refuges fleeing drug lords and warlords in Africa.
    Refuges fleeing terrorist/drug lords of the Middle Eastern Nations.
    Peoples fleeing poverty and oppression from India, N. Korea, China etc…..
    And we don’t see a population relationship here with poverty and oppression?
    Poverty and shrinking of the middle class in the USA on the rise.
    And so has been immigration…hello..
    I did enjoy the extra warm weeks we had on our fall season this year. But, all good things must come to an end.
    You would think that most of these refuges would know that the further north you go the colder the fall and winter and spring seasons will be. But desperato
    Americans should be vigilant.
    Europeans report that the Paris terrorists were part the local existing population group. Is this considered a sleeper cell then? Did the accumulation of their arms begin a year earlier or when did the movement start? Are you aware of new movement? Are you living in a strategic location? And or for high traffic events? New business or people within last year who are they?
    We are told these attacks are not isolated.
    Suicide bombing in Baghdad, downing of Russian airliner over Egypt, bokaharem kidnappings and attacks etc…
    Americans have been threatened as well.

  35. Sounds like this winter could become a Stalingrad for leftist ideologues. Nothing would call Bull$his more than thousands migrants dying from the cold, or European citizens being forced at gunpoint by police to take scores of refugees into their homes. I’m sure the alarmists would still find a way to blame it all on global warming.

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