Ross McKittrick writes via email:
A UK-based math buff and former investment analyst named Douglas Keenan has posted an intriguing comment on the internet. He takes the view that global temperature series are dominated by randomness and contain no trend, and that existing analyses supposedly showing a significant trend are wrong. He states:
There have been many claims of observational evidence for global-warming alarmism. I have argued that all such claims rely on invalid statistical analyses. Some people, though, have asserted that the analyses are valid. Those people assert, in particular, that they can determine, via statistical analysis, whether global temperatures are increasing more that would be reasonably expected by random natural variation. Those people do not present any counter to my argument, but they make their assertions anyway.
In response to that, I am sponsoring a contest: the prize is $100 000. In essence, the prize will be awarded to anyone who can demonstrate, via statistical analysis, that the increase in global temperatures is probably not due to random natural variation.
He would like such people to substantiate their claim to be able to identify trends. To this end he has posted a file of 1000 time series, some with trends and some without. And…
A prize of $100 000 (one hundred thousand U.S. dollars) will be awarded to the first person, or group of people, who correctly identifies at least 900 series: i.e. which series were generated by a trendless process and which were generated by a trending process.
You have until 30 November 2016 or until someone wins the contest. Each entry costs $10; this is being done to inhibit non-serious entries.
Details here: http://www.informath.org/Contest1000.htm