Another "end of snow" prediction

sierra_snow_pack1879-2013

15 years after Dr Viner embarrassed the British Climate Research Unit, Griffith University in Australia has just joined the slowly growing list of academic institutions which have predicted the “end of snow”.

According to ABC Australia;

Research conducted by Griffith University’s Environmental Futures Research Institute has warned that snow regions in Australia must adapt to warmer conditions caused by climate change, that is increasingly turning the alpine landscape from white to green.

Study co-author Professor Catherine Pickering said the current trends did not look promising and good years like the recent snow dump had become less frequent.

“The snow cover in the Australian alps is declining and it has declined a lot since 1954 when there was the longest snow course on record,” she said.

“We have found that it was originally a 30 per cent decline and now the latest data indicates we have got to a 40 per cent decline over that period.

“We used to have a couple of really big years when we had a lot of snow but that is no longer the case. Now, what used to be a not so great year, that is what we think of as a good year.”

Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-19/climate-change-to-effect-future-ski-seasons-scientitsts/6610018

However, the ABC article also quotes the president of the Canberra Alpine Club, who has a different opinion.

… Canberra Alpine Club president Lloyd Meehan said snow lovers were content with the current weather conditions and snow levels.

Mr Meehan said he believes while weather patterns changed over time, the decline was not consistent.

“The scientists will tell us that perhaps when you are looking at pure statistical data, there has been a gradual decline,” he said.

“But like many sports, from one year to the next it is a bit hard to actually guess what sort of snow depth we are going to get.

“One year you will get a poor one, the next year – like two years ago – you get quite good ones.”

For the record, the Australian snow season this year had a poor start, but the last week especially has seen massive snowfalls across Australia’s Eastern ranges, stretching up to the subtropical southern edge of the Australian state of Queensland.

If there is one thing above all else, which flags just how ridiculously wrong climate models are, and how desperate academics are for observations to agree with their broken models, its the academically embarrassing “end of snow” prediction.

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July 19, 2015 1:10 pm

Said to a “climatologist”: “If BullDust was snowflakes, you’d be walking around in a blizzard.”

Barry
July 19, 2015 1:17 pm

Sierra snowpack:
http://insideclimatenews.org/sites/default/files/SierraSnowpack2015aFINAL_1.jpg
(Should have included 2014-15 the Donner Summit graph.)

Reply to  Barry
July 19, 2015 1:40 pm

As I said,

In the context of CAGW, “Man-made Climate Change” or “end of snow”, if I may paraphrase Freud, “Sometimes a drought is just a drought.”

KO
July 19, 2015 1:20 pm

This is all such horses’ doeuvres. I cannot speak for Oz, but last flew over the Central/East Caucasus and Zagros Mountains on 21 June. From 39,000ft it was patently obvious there were vast snowfields. They stretched as far as the eye could see in many places, and were particularly evidence on North facing escarpments and in steep valleys, no matter which way they faced. Guessing the altitude of the snowline won’t add anything to the debate, but everything looked just as it usually does at that time of the year – were I to venture anything, I’d say there was probably a bit more snow around than I’ve seen for a while. Summer temperatures in the Gulf have also been off the more usual extremes in my experience. Just sayin’

Pamela Gray
July 19, 2015 2:02 pm

No worries. Those that spout the cool-aided party line report that increased precipitation and snow is on the way at least for part of the Northern Hemisphere, which may be due to a warmer atmosphere holding more water up there, and the loss of Arctic Ice cover.
“Sea ice loss and snowfall over Eurasia
Climate models predict that Arctic precipitation will increase through the 21st century. As the climate warms, the atmosphere can hold more moisture, which means a greater poleward transport and convergence of moisture by the atmosphere. The decline in Arctic sea ice extent may also play a role, as more open water will provide a moisture source. One would expect this latter effect to be most pronounced in autumn, when there will be a strong temperature (hence moisture) contrast between the open water and overlying air, promoting strong evaporation into the atmosphere. A recent study by Wegmann et al. provides evidence that more open water in the Barents and Kara seas has indeed led to an increase in autumn snowfall over Eurasia. Their analysis is based on snow observations from over 800 Russian land stations and an analysis of atmospheric moisture transport.”
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/category/analysis/
Can we go home now because AGW explains everything?

highflight56433
Reply to  Pamela Gray
July 19, 2015 4:37 pm

The governments(‘s) science is now the only science. Investigate Technocracy Rising by Patrick Wood. Watch his intervene at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7QlOTi86Nk Then think of all the government lies in the world of science.

jones
July 19, 2015 2:09 pm

If we’re not careful cheeeldren just aren’t going to know what snow predictions are.

Gerry
July 19, 2015 2:13 pm

You gotta love the earnest and strident Aussie climate propagandists …..the Left do earnest and strident extremely well here in Oz ……

July 19, 2015 2:53 pm

The Gore effect at work. NSW has just had it’s heaviest snow and coldest weather in 40 years with heavy snow even in Queensland.

Keith Minto
July 19, 2015 3:37 pm

We are lucky to get snow at all in Australian ski fields. The skiable altitude is from 1400 to 2000 metres. It generally melts during the day making icy conditions to start the ski day. There are heaps of snow making sprayers and extensive use of slope grooming tractors to overcome this crunchy low altitude problem.
Powder ? we dream of it.

highflight56433
July 19, 2015 4:45 pm

…try IMR, Accurate, Hodgen or Alliant.

thingadonta
July 19, 2015 7:40 pm

I’ve been following the snow issue in the Australian alps for years. Before one gets all in a twist, a hard look at the data does suggest a very gradual decline in snow cover over recent decades, which is consistent with gradually warming temperatures since the 1950s.
However, how much is natural?
The Australian alps and ski resorts are very susceptible to warming because there is only just enough elevation for a decent snow season. This has always been the case. Some resorts are only just viable for skiing at best, in most years there is only about 2-3 months half decent skiing before it melts and gets too warm.
Another factor is they receive a portion of their snow from east coast lows, which are more prevalent in la nina years, and probably when they world’s temperatures were cooler; recent global warming over decades seems to have declined both storminess and the prevalence of east coast lows in the SW Pacific.

Editor
Reply to  highflight56433
July 20, 2015 5:48 am

It can snow in Hawaii any month of the year.

highflight56433
Reply to  Ric Werme
July 20, 2015 10:09 am

😉

observa
July 19, 2015 9:14 pm

The shorter warmy weather worriers- Don’t you Orstraylyuns think for one moment all this cold and snow Down Under is gunna last!
Meanwhile sunny Queenslanders, after having cleared away all the water, are now trying to clear away all the snow so they can find the drought underneath.

Sandy In Limousin
July 20, 2015 12:35 am

That will explain this then

Big freeze causes snowfalls from Goulburn to Katoomba.
17 July 2015 – A snowstorm has shutdown highways and left people stranded in their cars outside of Sydney this morning.
Over 10cm of snow has been dumped on Katoomba and has been felt as far north as Armidale and south as Goulburn as NSW’s cold snap intensifies to its most frigid conditions yet.
Both the Great Western Highway and Bells Line of Road have been closed, leaving no way for motorists to travel between Sydney and Lithgow.

http://iceagenow.info/2015/07/new-south-wales-snow-shuts-down-highways/
and this

Record-breaking cold and possibly record-breaking snow.
Major cities in the land Down Under are used to average winter temperatures of around 10 degrees Celsius (50 F). Aussies often run around in flip flops at this time of year. But on Friday, temperatures dropped to zero and sub-zero degrees across multiple states.
A record breaking low of minus 6.9 degrees was recorded overnight in Mount Hotham and Falls Creek, Victoria.
And along with the cold came the snow.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said up to eight centimeters (3¼ inches) of snow has been recorded by locals around Eukey and Stanthorpe on the Granite Belt.

http://iceagenow.info/2015/07/queensland-australia-biggest-snowstorm-in-31-years/

Old woman of the north
July 20, 2015 12:35 am

In 1966 snow fell at Bogantungan, west of Emerald, Queensland and also at Eungella Plateau, west of Mackay, Queensland; in 1984 Toowoomba, Queensland had a snow fall and this last week Stanthorpe, Queensland had a fall of about 10cm and several days of nasty low temperatures with a solid wind chill factor too.
I have a friend who scoured the newpapers on The National Library digitised newspaper site and compiled a record of snow fall in Australia from 1850 to the present – there were hundreds of reports – the booklet is about 80pp. It is evidence that weather happens and the cycles don’t seem to have changed that much.

Mervyn
July 20, 2015 1:08 am

Yep… yet more research by global warming scientists who refuse to take any notice of the real world observational data … on both climate and weather.

Ed Zuiderwijk
July 20, 2015 1:38 am

Clearly, in order to invite snow to fall you must try to find a climate change academic and let him or her declare “the end of snow”.

johann wundersamer
July 20, 2015 2:53 am

professional approach for Catherine Pickering could be 1. to confer with
Canberra Alpine Club
president Lloyd Meehan
who said snow lovers were content with the current weather conditions and snow levels.
____
in the european alps scientists do appreciate such knowledge exchange.
Hans

Tim
July 20, 2015 7:22 am

Wasn’t it Einstein who defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
Drop the snow story, guys. It has run its race. Best to stick to the cute, furry mammals that are desperately on the edge of extinction.

observa
July 20, 2015 8:57 am

As one astute chilly adult put it-
Children just aren’t going to know what warm is if this keeps up.

Arthur Clapham
July 20, 2015 3:29 pm

Do the ‘experts’ who make these predictions ever venture out of doors?

Patrick
July 20, 2015 7:26 pm

And lets not forget, Australia is still drifting north by about 6cm per year!

GregK
July 20, 2015 7:35 pm

An unfortunate time to announce the “end of snow”, coinciding with the most extensive snowfall in Australia for 30 years
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/areas-of-southeast-australia-blanketed-in-white-as-more-cold-fronts-sweep-in-from-the-south/story-fnjwvztl-1227443877504