Another "end of snow" prediction

sierra_snow_pack1879-2013

15 years after Dr Viner embarrassed the British Climate Research Unit, Griffith University in Australia has just joined the slowly growing list of academic institutions which have predicted the “end of snow”.

According to ABC Australia;

Research conducted by Griffith University’s Environmental Futures Research Institute has warned that snow regions in Australia must adapt to warmer conditions caused by climate change, that is increasingly turning the alpine landscape from white to green.

Study co-author Professor Catherine Pickering said the current trends did not look promising and good years like the recent snow dump had become less frequent.

“The snow cover in the Australian alps is declining and it has declined a lot since 1954 when there was the longest snow course on record,” she said.

“We have found that it was originally a 30 per cent decline and now the latest data indicates we have got to a 40 per cent decline over that period.

“We used to have a couple of really big years when we had a lot of snow but that is no longer the case. Now, what used to be a not so great year, that is what we think of as a good year.”

Read more: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-07-19/climate-change-to-effect-future-ski-seasons-scientitsts/6610018

However, the ABC article also quotes the president of the Canberra Alpine Club, who has a different opinion.

… Canberra Alpine Club president Lloyd Meehan said snow lovers were content with the current weather conditions and snow levels.

Mr Meehan said he believes while weather patterns changed over time, the decline was not consistent.

“The scientists will tell us that perhaps when you are looking at pure statistical data, there has been a gradual decline,” he said.

“But like many sports, from one year to the next it is a bit hard to actually guess what sort of snow depth we are going to get.

“One year you will get a poor one, the next year – like two years ago – you get quite good ones.”

For the record, the Australian snow season this year had a poor start, but the last week especially has seen massive snowfalls across Australia’s Eastern ranges, stretching up to the subtropical southern edge of the Australian state of Queensland.

If there is one thing above all else, which flags just how ridiculously wrong climate models are, and how desperate academics are for observations to agree with their broken models, its the academically embarrassing “end of snow” prediction.

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167 thoughts on “Another "end of snow" prediction

    • The graph would appear not to be connected to the referenced research, as the article is about snow in Australia, while the graph depicts snow in California at Donner Summit. I understand the point of the graph, but it probably should not have been included in this article since it could be construed as misleading.

      • The claim was that the cause of the regional variation is warmer conditions caused by climate change. Climate change is supposed to be a global phenomenon.

      • Eric
        I am a bit confused as to why an article about Australia should prominently feature a California ski resort graph? Would it not be best to either include Aussie ski graphs or broaden the scope of the text?
        tonyb

      • There is a chart of snow depths at Spencers Creek, from Snowy Hydro data, at http://users.tpg.com.au/users/mpaine/snow.html
        There is another for South Perisher at http://southperisher.org.au/weather/charts/all
        As might be expected from global temperature data, the best snow period was in the 60s and 70s, and snow seasons since have been poorer. So it appears to be correct to say that snowfall in Australia has declined over the last 50+ years.
        It is interesting to note from the Spencers Creek chart how marginal the Snowies’ snowfields are – see how quickly the deep snow declines back in the good years.

      • Mike Jonas, how can you say ‘snowfall in Australia has declined over the last 50+ years’ when the linear trend shown on your first link is flat!

      • Billy Liar – I would really like someone to download the actual data and do the analysis properly (I can’t at present). The linear trend shown looks very suspect to me, and it’s only for selected Aug and Sep dates. To my eye the earlier years had longer and deeper seasons – much more visible in the second link I think. As always, I am happy to be proved wrong!

      • @climatereason, that’s not for Donner pass the ski area, but somewhere around Donner Pass itself. I used to live near there. Still not for anywhere in Australia.

    • under 1000cm 1879-1951 34 years, 1952 -2013 34 years
      over 1500cm ” ” 9 years, ” ” 8 years
      over 2000cm ” ” 1 year ” ” 1 year
      No – evidently they do not look at the data!

      • David,
        Apparently you are looking at raw data that has not been homogenized to fit the CAGW narrative. You must not be a climatologists or you would not make such and error.

      • Congratulations. Your analysis of the Sierra snowfall record has driven a stake into the heart of one of the climate change arguments, that man has broken the climate so that modern climate is (different – fill in threat here) than older Edenic climate. In hydrologic terms, if stationarity can no longer be assumed, we must yield to the new climate paradigm.
        “Stochastic Processes in Hydrology” offers an analog to the Voigt-Kampff test to assess stationarity. See Yevjevich:
        https://books.google.com/books/about/Stochastic_processes_in_hydrology.html?id=uPJOAAAAMAAJ
        Yevjevich provides an explanation of and tests for stationarity. In the simplest application, the record is divided into two or more parts and analyzed independently as you have done. “In general, if the subseries parameters are confined within the 95 percent tolerance limits about the corresponding value of the parameter for the entire series, the process is inferred to be self-stationary.”

    • No. They are hoodwinked believers that only look into the scope of the god-like model. Actual observation be dammed! And

    • It is after the publishing that counts – the MSM have moved on and the egg has been laid in the public’s brains.
      I gave up updating this:
      http://www.agwbs.com/agw-is-fake/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past.html
      after the headlines in 2010 – ‘Snow-covers-Britain-from-head-to-toe’.
      On the front page you will find a forecast (uk/global) that predicted this colder-than-average patch:
      Cooler and wetter from 5-7 July
      Possible few warmer days from July 19 (not certain)
      From July ~29 a strong warm burst************
      just sayin’

  1. They must have written that before heading off to the northern hemisphere for warm holidays in Tuscany. July here in Australia is winter, and white, and bluddie cold.

    • yup zero C in my outdoor laundry overnight and still at 730am entire area was as white as snow
      at 1130 I picked a slab of ice from the top of a trailer tarp as thick as window glass.
      it was 9.1c here at 12pm.
      bloody cold!!

  2. As I write, it is 2 degrees C in Melbourne – and has been below average for two weeks now. Just watch my burnt fuel contrails as I head for the tropics tomorrow for three weeks away from the global warming catastrophe I pray for every freezing day

    • Your observations must be wrong because it is quite hot here in Ottawa.
      Also, why are we bothered about +2C temperature change. Here in Ottawa, temperatures go from-30C to +30C in 6 months. And then back again 🙁

  3. Yes, snow in Queensland and a month of straight sub zero nights in the Nation’s Capital, nearly 30 years after the Global Warming fear mongering first started should have shut this bloke up before he opened his mouth. Some people have no shame.

  4. Living in Canada it would be fantastic if I never had to deal with snow again. The upside would outshadow the downside ten-fold.

    • It is obscene for Canadian politicians to demand policies that feed their cronies reduce he temperature of Canada. Are they crazy or criminal? We need a warmer Canada.

      • Robert,
        In your neck of the woods this is the stake in the heart of GW alarmism. Your elected officials are actually attempting to drive the climate (according to their own models) toward lower temperatures by over 1K, shorter growing seasons and lower CO2 reducing crop yield by up to 50% (@ 270 ppm that was the apparent CO2 level in the garden of eden). If they are right with their models and were to actually succeed that would probably make Canada largely uninhabitable! THERE IS SOMETHING RATHER IMMORAL ABOUT THAT. I think that these facts possibly make attempts to reduce CO2 in the USA unconstitutional, which may extend to Canada as well.
        You should yelp long and hard to your elected representative about their complicity in this evil.

  5. It isn’t just academics. From the current strategic plan of our closest ski resort, Mt Baw Baw:
    “Mt Baw Baw’s lower altitude makes it vulnerable to the effects of climate change and its potential impact on snow tourism. The ARMB is mitigating this risk by building year-round visitation to the Resort.”

    • Nick Stokes — You are amazing!
      Do you know what false attribution is? The author of your quote has a cause he is trying to further. To do that he uses false attribution. I am going to rewrite the quote removing the words “climate change” and replacing them with words that actually reflect the resort’s true situation. See if you can distinguish the intellectual difference.
      “Mt. Baw Baw’s lower altitude makes it vulnerable to the effects of a poor snow year and its potential impact on snow tourism. The ARMB is mitigating this risk by building year-round visitation to the Resort.
      Mt. Baw Baw due to its low altitude has probably suffered from numerous poor snow years in the past and the owners have come up with a way to expand their business making it less dependent on snow fall..
      What do you know about bars? Many bars run a morning breakfast, a lunch, a happy hour and a rock band at night. The owners utilize the building all day long serving distinctly different crowds. That is a common business practice which Mt. Baw Baw has decided to implement.
      Nowadays the use of the words “climate change” is highly indicative that the author is telling a lie. Really. See the words “climate change” and it is highly probable that a lie is being told.
      Eugene WR Gallun

      • Seems like pretty much whenever I go to an area that is a ski area in winter, it is “mitigating the risk” of summer by incorporating the use of its lifts for summertime activities like hiking, sight-seeing, or mountain biking.

    • Apart from the climate change crap, a sound business plan, utilise the facilities year-round for increased profit.

  6. It’s always the dog that doesn’t bark in the night that’s most interesting.
    You can store your water via snowpack during a dryer summer if it’s cold enough. That’s nice as it’s a cheap way to make sure the taps don’t run dry. If it’s not cold enough, people should be budgeting for more reservoir construction which seems to be the next cheapest way of ensuring the taps don’t run dry. A proper, human centered discussion on climate would include the obvious follow up of how much in extra water retention via dam and reservoir should be budgeted over what time period to accommodate this shift from snowpack storage to reservoir storage.
    Increased dam and reservoir creation would split the green coalition so the question doesn’t get asked by friends of the cause. So why haven’t I seen any skeptics toss this particular cat among the canaries? Did I just miss it?

    • Dam and Reservoir creation usually doesn’t “split” green coalitions, it unites them – against them.
      Just look at California where close to 80% of all water runs off into the Pacific – much in the name of a 2″ fish – and their technique of allowing the water to run off isn’t saving the fish – “as their models predicted” it would.

      • I think back in the sixties there was a proposal to create what they called NAWAPA North West Water and Power Alliance. A series of hydro electric dams down the spine of the Rocky Mountains stretching from the Yukon to New Mexico. Power and Water needs for western Canada and United States solved for a few centuries! Environmentalists buried that one so deep hardly anybody has heard of it unless they are old enough to remember.

      • Ian, your post reminded me of what happen to an home aquarium years ago when the enterprising young man put this minnow he found in a lake or a creek in to tropical fish tank, for some reason [all] his tropical fish started to disappear, That sweet little minnow was a bass, and of course the bass did what bass do eat anything [they] can catch and they are good at catching other fish. One a more serious [note] most of the invasive species here in the united states [were] introduced with some government money at some point an time with some “scientist” trying [to] address a “problem”.

      • It’s political suicide, even in California, to explicitly say that you want people to have inadequate water. By reframing the snowpack as nature’s reservoir that now must be replaced by manmade reservoirs due to global warming causing its disappearance, the greens must either explicitly go anti-human (which is a political loser) or fight it out over creating the replacement water infrastructure to replace the snowpack. They’ll split in an unusual way.

    • You didn’t miss it. Skeptics have repeatedly suggested simple and pragmatic solutions to the world’s problems over the decades in which nonsense eco-alarmist ideology has grown.
      But, over time the pragmatic skeptics have been dismissed and disenfranchised, such that we have largely tired of repeating ourselves.
      Just look at the environmental opposition to every new hydro-electric project. With hydroelectricity providing by far the cheapest renewable energy and currently more than half of the world’s renewable energy. Even when dodgy biomass is included in the calculation.
      But, the loons have taught each other to dismiss it and to resist it, at every opportunity.
      They have an inbuilt antipathy towards anything that actually works and is cost-effective.
      If it doesn’t require massive subsidies, then they will object, whether the thing is renewable energy or not.
      In fact, judging by the recent Australian reaction to the potential involvement with Lomborg, we should now assume that the loons object to the very principle of “cost/benefit analysis”.
      Basically, what I am pointing out, is that the reasonable people grew tired of repeating themselves long ago, and have now largely adopted an air of disgusted resignation.
      But, you are certainly not alone.
      A tiny minority of others have maintained their ability to think rationally.
      And we are being forcefully excluded from the so-called “debate”.
      The “debate”, which we are now told, is over.
      In effect it does seem that it is over. Since the leftist eco-loon “consensus” is now shouting down anyone who attempts to speak.

      • It’s simple. The enviromenalists [sic] do not like electricity. I’m not sure why, perhaps because it is an unseen force or something equally evil.
        Remember the Catholic Church isn’t opposed to birth control, merely birth control that works. Same with the Watermelons. They are not opposed to electricity, simply economical electricity.

      • Robert, cheap electricity provides comfortable living conditions for more people. That’s the last thing rabid environmentalists want.

      • The trick, I believe, is to get the loons to explicitly, and loudly, take positions that are anti-human. The start is documenting what the system actually is and what the slack level in the system actually is. It’s not terribly interesting work in itself which is why most people don’t do it but there are benefits. The loons thrive on the vague feeling that the system will keep chugging along no matter what. Identifying where the breaking points are is educational and disempowering for the loons.

    • Back in the sane ol’ days, both Oz and CA planned many decades in advance for future reservoirs and aqueducts. In both places, those plans were scuttled by the enviro-left.

      • But they are getting a 100 billion dollar train! Who needs water or electricity when you have a train!?

  7. My question to the climate alarmist is this: “When will the children who live in the subtropical climates of the world stop seeing snow, because even up to a week ago, they are still seeing it?”

  8. And yet there is snow in Queensland (which in Oz is like saying there is snow in Florida folks) the home state of Griffith University.
    We have already survived the floods that signalled the end of the ‘endless’ drought predicted by another local eco-loon here in Oz and you guessed it, that all started in Queensland too.
    Gosh that Gaia is a contrary old gal isn’t she. She really just doesn’t suffer fools.

  9. Funny, it is almost as if mother nature is deliberately setting out to make fools of these guys.

    • I believe it’s safe to quote Bachman-Turner Overdrive and say “b-b-b-baby you just ain’t seen nothin’ yet!”
      (neg. PDO + neg. AMO + solar grand minimum = ?)

  10. The only clear thing from the graph is that if 1889 – 1891 repeated itself, they would be screaming about climate change.

  11. My cousins tell me it is cold in Queensland and they have had more snow than in the past 20 years this week. Unusual? Not really, as I have photos of my father skiing somewhere in the mountains of NSW.

  12. I am guessing that the Donner record is replete with various methods used to measure snow and is more a record that demonstrates that artifact than it is a record of accurate snow levels.

  13. The arrival of intense cold similar to the one that raged during the “Little Ice Age”, which froze the world during the 17th century and in the beginning of the 18th century, is expected in the years 2030—2040. These conclusions were presented by Professor V. Zharkova (Northumbria University) during the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno in Wales by the international group of scientists, which also includes Dr Helen Popova of the Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear Physics and of the Faculty of Physics of the Lomonosov Moscow State University, Professor Simon Shepherd of Bradford University and Dr Sergei Zharkov of Hull University.
    http://astronomynow.com/2015/07/17/diminishing-solar-activity-may-bring-new-ice-age-by-2030/

    • Yet there was an article on spaceweather.com a few days ago (for a few hours) which stated that we should not believe the press that the expected upcoming minimum would have the same effect as previous ones and that models which predict past events cannot accurately predict the future (as NASA had bad results from their solar dynamo model). Dr P. implied that anthro-effects negate or mitigate the potential cooling.
      I wish I had copied and saved the article because later that day it was gone. He must have gotten some flak from somewhere and ‘made it go away’ quickly.
      I can only conclude that the poor guy has to pay homage to the meme if he wants to keep his job.

  14. I notice that there is a concerning reduction of the number of graphs presented in printed media and educational resource material.
    Seeing a graph is now “a very rare and exciting event”.
    At the current rate of decline – by 2025, children just aren’t going to know what graphs are.

  15. I’m not exactly sure why you’ve posted a central Sierra snow chart in an article about Australian snow.

  16. Dr Helen Popova responds cautiously, while speaking about the human influence on climate.
    “There is no strong evidence, that global warming is caused by human activity. The study of deuterium in the Antarctic showed that there were five global warmings and four Ice Ages for the past 400 thousand years. People first appeared on the Earth about 60 thousand years ago. However, even if human activities influence the climate, we can say, that the Sun with the new minimum gives humanity more time or a second chance to reduce their industrial emissions and to prepare, when the Sun will return to normal activity”, Dr Helen Popova summarised.

    • I maintain extra heat stored now(by release of fossil CO2) will be a beneficial buffer whether the coming cooling is merely another fairly little ice age, or the big one.
      The higher the sensitivity, the colder we’d now already be without man’s input. You’d better hope that the recovery from the coldest depths of the Holocene has been primarily natural, for if man has done the heavy lifting of warming, we can’t keep it up for long.
      ================

  17. I was amazed the first time I heard if sking in Ausralia. I am no more shicked to learn that they have a regular measurable snowpact. I tgought they jyst relied in snow guns and the ocassional mud winter dump at high altitudes. I havs also recently heard if good skiing in Lebanon and Turkey.

    • I have to say, that recent stories are the first time I ever became aware that there are ski resorts in Australia, and that it evah snows there.
      Does not jibe with the mental picture formed by years of watching movies such as Road Warrior and Crocodile Dundee.

      • I wish I could say I’ve only rope-towed; that was the most fun. I wish I could believe all the fun Ernst had in Austria, tramping up first. Maybe I’m just envious.
        ===================

    • Back in the 60’s one of the glossy mags, Time or Newsweek or maybe Nat Geograph , ran tourist ads on the back cover stating that the winter snow cover in the Snowy Mtns (there is your clue) was greater than in the european Alps .
      Of course that was pre- AGW. (I am of course assuming the ads were honest and valid ).

  18. Just wait until the AMO 30-yr cool cycle kicks in around 2022, at the same time the weakest solar cycle since 1715 starts around 2022 AND the PDO 30-yr cool cycle hits it coldest point around 2025….
    There will be more snow and cold than the warmunists will know how to explain away….
    They’ll have to pull out ye old, “CO2 induced warming is causing colder global temps and more snowfall as we predicted…”

    • “… Just wait until the AMO 30-yr cool cycle kicks in around 2022 …”
      Yes, but the Paris commie-fest on climate is this year, not 2022.

      • Mark– In the long run, the hyperventilating media blitz the Statists will run after the Paris commie-fest will simply increase their embarrassment and lost credibility once this CAGW scam crashes and burns around 2020’s.
        The bigger the financial commitments made in Paris, the more intense the blowback will be against the Statists as they own this scam 100% and have known for quite sometime it wasn’t real.

    • It won’t be just about the cold, I think global weather patterns are going to change and we are seeing the start of it now with the shifting of the artic jet stream over the past few years (it used to blow down into Alaska, now it blows down into Canada leading to warmer winters in Alaska and BC but colder winters in central and eastern Canada/US). They keep coming up with new terms like polar vortex, Siberian express and now Antarctic vortex to explain the shifts we are seeing. If the Jetstream reaches the Gulf of Mexico consistently in the winters it could cool it enough to shut down the gulf stream at which point this probably becomes self reinforcing and we begin not a mini ice age but a full blown glacial period. Areas that are now rain forest may become deserts and vise versa (the pyramids of Giza was quite a rainy area before the end of the last glacial period for example). I think there is a tipping point after which we rapidly descend into a glacial… Silly me while everyone else was researching/debating warming I read every scientific theory I could find on the causes of glacial periods because that is obviously the real threat.

      • It won’t be just about the cold, I think global weather patterns are going to change and we are seeing the start of it now with the shifting of the artic jet stream over the past few years (it used to blow down into Alaska, now it blows down into Canada leading to warmer winters in Alaska and BC but colder winters in central and eastern Canada/US).

        I live in NE Ohio, and it has been colder the last couple winters, as well as this summer. But, I think this is just returning to the weather of the 60’s and 70’s. We, in fact few of my neighbors had central air, and most cars did not have air in the 60’s and 70’s, I think the difference is just whether the Jet Stream is north or south of us, which is about a 15-20F swing, the difference between Canadian Air, and Gulf Air. This summer we’ve had a lot of rain, and mostly Canadian temps, 70’s to low 80’s, as opposed to High 80’s to mid 90’s.
        I think this relates to Ocean surface temps, pushing the Jet Stream around, and we’re currently transitioning between states, back to the one of my childhood, after it was in the high (Jet Stream) Midwest mode in the 80’s and 90’s, it’s going back into the low Jet Stream mode.

      • micro6500 I live just outside Toronto, not far from you. I agree that the last few years have been cold, this has been the coolest summer that I can remember since back in the 80s. So far there have only been 5 days or so that people turn their air conditioning on. No one knows weather like us great lakes dwellers, this spring we went from 10f nights one week to 110f days the next week. My theories are based on the work of a number of physicists (John L Casey, Valentina Zharkova, etc.) that have predicted a fewer sunspots in the coming years, which will lead to at least a mini ice age and the theory of what causes ice ages from some scientists back in the 50s (I believe this is the generally accepted theory, if you have seen “the day after tomorrow” then you know the theory http://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the-coming-ice-age/ ) however I disagree with their theory that the melting of the Arctic ice is what shuts down the gulf stream (for the simple reason that water can already flow under the glaciers). Suspicous0bserver on youtube has some videos which basically sum up my line of thinking.
        Every 230 years or so the sun enters a “cool” period (google Dalton and Maunder minimums) causing a mini ice age so we are due for that. Earth has been in an actual ice age for 1-2 million years, during this ice age Earth spends around 100k years in a glacial period (ice 3 miles thick on top of your home) and around 10k years in an interglacial period. We have been in an interglacial period for around 12k years, so we are due for that (have a look at the Vostok and Greenland ice core data to confirm that). Every time Earth reaches temperatures and CO2 levels near current levels it rapidly enters a glacial period (keep in mind ice core data is not exact and says we are at the highest CO2 level ever but stomata CO2 proxies seem more accurate http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/26/co2-ice-cores-vs-plant-stomata/ ). In addition to that the sun is going through a magnetic pole reversal (not uncommon, happens every 11 years or so http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/the-suns-magnetic-field-is-about-to-flip/ ) BUT it seems Earth is going through a magnetic pole reversal too since the pole is moving faster then any time in recorded history and that is rare http://www.heartcom.org/MagneticPoleMovement.htm Also Earth’s magnetic field is weakening very quickly http://www.livescience.com/46694-magnetic-field-weakens.html In short a whole bunch of things that we don’t yet know the affects of are all happening at the same time right when we are due for a glacial period… You don’t have to go too far out on a limb to suggest that the culmination of all these events is what causes glacial periods

  19. The “declining snow cover” meme is pure Appeal to Emotion nonsense. Koolade drinkers love it, though.

  20. With some of the best snowfalls for years this past week, and it’s only mid July (the southern H. Winter), even the climate warming media are reporting these events for a change instead of the usual hottest day, week, month, year ever.

  21. Besides the already given comments about California/Australia, I’m not sure why the graph that was included was for just one location in CA, and for winter totals. It’s the spring figures that matter for water supplies and for providing moisture for forests and wildlife. The previous record low snowpack in CA for early April was 25% of normal, this year it was at 5%: http://www.weather.com/climate-weather/drought/news/california-sierra-snowpack-record-low-april-2015

  22. Meanwhile, the ski season of ’14-’15 in New England chalked up another banner year. It started off slow, but ended with a bang, and a late start to Spring meant that skiers could ski well into April. Great maple syrup season as well.

  23. If the planet is about to abruptly cool due to the abrupt change in the sun, then never ending media announcements of future warming, the end of snowfall in winter, rising oceans, and so on is silly, pointless propaganda.
    Talk does not change reality, it just goes on and on, until there is a significant observational change that cannot be ignored that breaks the paradigm.
    P.S. It is a fact that there has been an abrupt slowdown change (fastest rate of change of solar parameters in ‘recorded’ history) to the solar cycle. The media and the scientific community appear to be waiting until there is unexplained abrupt cooling of the planet which cannot be ignored and that will require an explanation, at which time they will be forced to discuss the abrupt change to the sun.
    We have all assumed that the cult of CAGW’s greenhouse gas theory/mechanism is correct and that their GCMs (general circulation models) are incorrect as they amplify (positive feedback) the CO2 forcing and the planet in fact resists (negative feedback) the forcing (Sensitivity issue).
    Observations and analyses supports the assertion (Highest Antarctic sea ice for every month of year in recorded history starting in 2012, 18 years without warming, the latitudinal warming paradox, and the no tropical troposphere hot spot for example) that there are multiple fundamental errors in the basic greenhouse gas theory/climate modeling assumptions, in addition to the fact that the planet resists rather than amplifies forcing changes.
    It is a fact that greenhouse gases increase the efficiency of convection cooling in the troposphere. That does not mean there is no greenhouse effect, it means the greenhouse effect saturates/is limited by the greenhouse gases’ effect on the lapse rate in the troposphere.
    If the lapse rate in the troposphere increases due to additional CO2 or any other greenhouse gas (as opposed to the IPCC’s assumption that greenhouse gases have no effect on the lapse rate which is physically impossible) then the temperature rise due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 is roughly 0.1C to 0.2C, not 3C to 7C as ‘estimated’ by the IPCC.
    https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/certaintychannel_ipcc_reality.png
    I would highly recommend a read through of Kimoto’s AGW calculation issue summary and Kimoto’s peer reviewed paper of the errors in the Plank constant.
    William: Hat’s off to Hockey Stick. This is mainstream science, clear discussion of the central AGW scientific issues.
    Kimoto provides a detail explanation of what were the assumptions in the most ‘influential’ AGW paper of all time which is the basis of the entire cult of CAGW. If the assumptions in the most influential AGW paper of all time are incorrect, there is no AGW problem to solve.

    According to a recent ‘consensus’ by The Carbon Brief of 36 IPCC authors, “one paper clearly takes the top spot” as “the most influential climate change paper of all time:” Manabe & Wetherald’s 1967 paper entitled, “Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity”

    http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.ca/2015/07/collapse-of-agw-theory-of-ipcc-most.html
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B74u5vgGLaWoOEJhcUZBNzFBd3M/view?pli=1

    Collapse of the Anthropogenic Warming Theory of the IPCC by Kyoji Kimoto
    4. Conclusions
    In physical reality, the surface climate sensitivity is 0.1~0.2K from the energy budget of the earth and the surface radiative forcing of 1.1W.m2 for 2xCO2. Since there is no positive feedback from water vapor and ice albedo at the surface, the zero feedback climate sensitivity CS (FAH) is also 0.1~0.2K. A 1K warming occurs in responding to the radiative forcing of 3.7W/m2 for 2xCO2 at the effective radiation height of 5km. This gives the slightly reduced lapse rate of 6.3K/km from 6.5K/km as shown in Fig.2.

    Peer Reviewed paper same author.
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B74u5vgGLaWoM3FwR3VQR21uU2M/view?pli=1

    ON THE CONFUSION OF PLANCK FEEDBACK PARAMETERS by Kyoji Kimoto

    • “We have all assumed that the cult of CAGW’s greenhouse gas theory/mechanism is correct and that their GCMs (general circulation models) are incorrect as they amplify (positive feedback) the CO2 forcing and the planet in fact resists (negative feedback) the forcing (Sensitivity issue).”
      I for one never assumed anything.

  24. I didn’t know that Australia had “alps”. Learn something new every day; even more when I read this website!

      • I thought Ayer’s Rock was about the only topography of note on the entire continent!
        Except for that little hill Mad Max used to spy on the Oil Well People.

    • The biggest difference between the warmist and skeptic blogs is the amount of learning from others that can be achieved when all are allowed to civilly comment. My perspective widens constantly on most everything from exposure to all these fine minds. I’ve even begun to see changes in the perspectives of some of those who come to belittle us for our “politically incorrect” science.

    • Actually, there are alps all over. Japan has ’em, so does California (Trinity Alps), and the word has an interesting etymology and toponymy, for those who like $5 words.

  25. CLIMATIC THRESHOLDS -needs to be brought out and is not being addressed. The question is will any climatic thresholds be reached? Answer is unknown at present.
    CLIMATIC THRESHOLDS – which AGW apparently does not embrace, because the forecast they have put forth through their useless models have not only predicted a warming trend from now to 2100 but they have predicted it to be gradual, and steady. This is not how the climate changes. Rather when the climate changes, Ice Core data CLEARLY shows it is in a step fashion not gradual. In other words the climate does not transition into another climate regime in a gradual fashion but in a step fashion.
    The upshot of all of this is what I say below which is the essence of how the climate changes which does not seem to be comprehended by mainstream climatologist which is par for the course.
    My statement below is most important.
    Climatic Thresholds are always present in the climate system and slight differences in the degree of magnitude change /duration of time in the item or items causing the climate forcing could make the difference between a climatic threshold in the climate system being brought about or not ,which in turn will make all the difference in the world of the x climate out come.
    This is why AGW enthusiast, the climate changes in a STEP fashion not gradually.
    As I have said we have a convergence of climatic items which are phasing together which eventually are going to bring the climate into a cooler regime in a step like down turn (when /if thresholds are reached ) superimposed likely upon a jig/saw up and down temperature trend in the meantime (with or with out thresholds being met) with a down bias.
    These climatic items which are showing a convergence to bring the climate to a colder trend are as follows:
    Solar Variability- weakening.
    Geo Magnetic Field – weakening.
    Milankovitch Cycles – on balance more favorable for cooling in contrast to 8000 years ago.
    Land/Ocean Arrangements remaining highly favorable for cooling.
    Ice Dynamic- S.H. could become favorable for cooling.
    The above is the big picture in the climate dynamic.
    For the refined picture of the climate dynamic one has to look at earth intrinsic climatic items, which on balance should favor cooling with the ones listed below having ample evidence of being moderated by prolonged solar activity . If the following are indeed moderated by solar activity this will make the case for cooling due to prolonged minimum solar conditions much stronger and much more likely.
    Clouds increasing.
    Volcanic Activity increasing.
    Meridional Atmospheric Circulation trend increasing.

  26. CLIMATIC THRESHOLDS -needs to be brought out and is not being addressed. The question is will any climatic thresholds be reached? Answer is unknown at present.
    CLIMATIC THRESHOLDS – which AGW apparently does not embrace, because the forecast they have put forth through their useless models have not only predicted a warming trend from now to 2100 but they have predicted it to be gradual, and steady. This is not how the climate changes. Rather when the climate changes, Ice Core data CLEARLY shows it is in a step fashion not gradual. In other words the climate does not transition into another climate regime in a gradual fashion but in a step fashion.
    The upshot of all of this is what I say below which is the essence of how the climate changes which does not seem to be comprehended by mainstream climatologist which is par for the course.
    My statement below is most important.
    Climatic Thresholds are always present in the climate system and slight differences in the degree of magnitude change /duration of time in the item or items causing the climate forcing could make the difference between a climatic threshold in the climate system being brought about or not ,which in turn will make all the difference in the world of the x climate out come.
    This is why AGW enthusiast, the climate changes in a STEP fashion not gradually.
    As I have said we have a convergence of climatic items which are phasing together which eventually are going to bring the climate into a cooler regime in a step like down turn (when /if thresholds are reached ) superimposed likely upon a jig/saw up and down temperature trend in the meantime (with or with out thresholds being met) with a slightly down bias.
    These climatic items which are showing a convergence to bring the climate to a colder trend are as follows:
    Solar Variability- weakening.
    Geo Magnetic Field – weakening.
    Milankovitch Cycles – on balance more favorable for cooling in contrast to 8000 years ago.
    Land/Ocean Arrangements remaining highly favorable for cooling.
    Ice Dynamic- S.H. could become favorable for cooling.
    The above is the big picture in the climate dynamic.
    For the refined picture of the climate dynamic one has to look at earth intrinsic climatic items.
    Which on balance should favor cooling some being moderated by prolonged solar activity . If the following are indeed moderated by solar activity this will make the case for cooling due to prolonged minimum solar conditions much stronger and much more likely.
    Clouds increasing.
    Volcanic Activity increasing.
    Meridional Atmospheric Circulation trend increasing.

  27. I shall have to remember that the end of snow is upon us this winter while I shovel and snowblow more of the stuff out of the driveway.
    Empirical evidence trumps computer models every time.

    • David Sanger
      Oh, so the Australian media is serving up freezer burned leftovers, because their “global warming cooker” is broken.
      I think I’ll go with high carb Chinese take out
      thanks michael

      • Ah but Dave the blog post by Eric Worrall was focused on the news story, not the staleness of the studies.
        Besides Eric may have been a little out of sorts when he wrote it. Did you see ” my pet spider dropped dead from the cold…” Myself I’m lighting a candle for the poor thing..
        Have a good nite
        michael

  28. In the context of CAGW, “Man-made Climate Change” or “end of snow”, if I may paraphrase Freud, “Sometimes a drought is just a drought.”

  29. Just one important precipitation question that I have not yet personally researched.
    Can anybody help me with this?
    Here in the UK we can look at rainfall averages over the last century and a half, all very methodically and reliably recorded and represented by Met Office graphs. And in most places and for the total for the UK overall, you will see little notable change in rainfall averages as the decades advance.
    However, the Met Office seem to have run the rainfall data through a food processor and come up with the idea that the rain is now falling in a more extreme manner. i.e. whilst there is not significantly more rain in total, it is claimed that it is somehow managing to all arrive in sudden bursts.
    Has anyone looked into how they contrived to discover this remarkable phenomenon?
    Is it an artifact of the analysis or changes in the methodology of rainfall recording?
    For example, could it be a phenomenon that results from an increase in the sampling frequency?
    Any suggestions?

    • I have heard the same thing in Canada but how would we know? Our frequency/intensity graphs don’t go back far enough to say and statistical methods are used to guess at what to use for storm flow design. A reasonable approach. Now, I have been out of the business of looking at those graphs for a long time. I wonder if radar can give us better indications of local storm intensity? One thing we can verify though is the results of precipitation events through stream flow gauges. Somewhere, in some environmental department, there must be a correlation study of some sort. Tons of variables of course.

      • Thanks. I considered a similar thing. As an ad hoc approach to the question, along the lines that you have suggested, here we have the flood levels in a channel in Worcester. Pretty evenly distributed by dates and levels. A scatterplot of sorts. So no support for the extreme rainfall thesis here:
        http://www.geograph.org.uk/photo/803162

    • Google met office weather blog and you will go to a blog where there are various articles and the provision to ask questions.they are pretty good at responding although other bloggers may also chip in
      Tonyb

    • Only casually, but my hypothesis is that the UKMO is now using Doppler radar measurements because rain gauges don’t cope with small scale precipitation events because there is simply not enough coverage. I also hypothesise that the Doppler radar exaggerates precipitation rates at the surface in some instances partly because the it takes no account of evaporation whilst the rain is falling. Eg rain may be falling from a cloud but not reach the ground (virga). I’m not sure whether rainfall rates from Doppler radar measurements have been validated.

  30. They just cannot help themselves. Remind me again what the definition of insanity is again?
    Tommy Boy

  31. Sorry about the second “again”. Doh!!
    [But the definition of insanity is doing something again again, right? .mod]

    • As I said,

      In the context of CAGW, “Man-made Climate Change” or “end of snow”, if I may paraphrase Freud, “Sometimes a drought is just a drought.”

  32. This is all such horses’ doeuvres. I cannot speak for Oz, but last flew over the Central/East Caucasus and Zagros Mountains on 21 June. From 39,000ft it was patently obvious there were vast snowfields. They stretched as far as the eye could see in many places, and were particularly evidence on North facing escarpments and in steep valleys, no matter which way they faced. Guessing the altitude of the snowline won’t add anything to the debate, but everything looked just as it usually does at that time of the year – were I to venture anything, I’d say there was probably a bit more snow around than I’ve seen for a while. Summer temperatures in the Gulf have also been off the more usual extremes in my experience. Just sayin’

  33. No worries. Those that spout the cool-aided party line report that increased precipitation and snow is on the way at least for part of the Northern Hemisphere, which may be due to a warmer atmosphere holding more water up there, and the loss of Arctic Ice cover.
    “Sea ice loss and snowfall over Eurasia
    Climate models predict that Arctic precipitation will increase through the 21st century. As the climate warms, the atmosphere can hold more moisture, which means a greater poleward transport and convergence of moisture by the atmosphere. The decline in Arctic sea ice extent may also play a role, as more open water will provide a moisture source. One would expect this latter effect to be most pronounced in autumn, when there will be a strong temperature (hence moisture) contrast between the open water and overlying air, promoting strong evaporation into the atmosphere. A recent study by Wegmann et al. provides evidence that more open water in the Barents and Kara seas has indeed led to an increase in autumn snowfall over Eurasia. Their analysis is based on snow observations from over 800 Russian land stations and an analysis of atmospheric moisture transport.”
    http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/category/analysis/
    Can we go home now because AGW explains everything?

  34. You gotta love the earnest and strident Aussie climate propagandists …..the Left do earnest and strident extremely well here in Oz ……

  35. The Gore effect at work. NSW has just had it’s heaviest snow and coldest weather in 40 years with heavy snow even in Queensland.

  36. We are lucky to get snow at all in Australian ski fields. The skiable altitude is from 1400 to 2000 metres. It generally melts during the day making icy conditions to start the ski day. There are heaps of snow making sprayers and extensive use of slope grooming tractors to overcome this crunchy low altitude problem.
    Powder ? we dream of it.

  37. I’ve been following the snow issue in the Australian alps for years. Before one gets all in a twist, a hard look at the data does suggest a very gradual decline in snow cover over recent decades, which is consistent with gradually warming temperatures since the 1950s.
    However, how much is natural?
    The Australian alps and ski resorts are very susceptible to warming because there is only just enough elevation for a decent snow season. This has always been the case. Some resorts are only just viable for skiing at best, in most years there is only about 2-3 months half decent skiing before it melts and gets too warm.
    Another factor is they receive a portion of their snow from east coast lows, which are more prevalent in la nina years, and probably when they world’s temperatures were cooler; recent global warming over decades seems to have declined both storminess and the prevalence of east coast lows in the SW Pacific.

  38. The shorter warmy weather worriers- Don’t you Orstraylyuns think for one moment all this cold and snow Down Under is gunna last!
    Meanwhile sunny Queenslanders, after having cleared away all the water, are now trying to clear away all the snow so they can find the drought underneath.

  39. That will explain this then

    Big freeze causes snowfalls from Goulburn to Katoomba.
    17 July 2015 – A snowstorm has shutdown highways and left people stranded in their cars outside of Sydney this morning.
    Over 10cm of snow has been dumped on Katoomba and has been felt as far north as Armidale and south as Goulburn as NSW’s cold snap intensifies to its most frigid conditions yet.
    Both the Great Western Highway and Bells Line of Road have been closed, leaving no way for motorists to travel between Sydney and Lithgow.

    http://iceagenow.info/2015/07/new-south-wales-snow-shuts-down-highways/
    and this

    Record-breaking cold and possibly record-breaking snow.
    Major cities in the land Down Under are used to average winter temperatures of around 10 degrees Celsius (50 F). Aussies often run around in flip flops at this time of year. But on Friday, temperatures dropped to zero and sub-zero degrees across multiple states.
    A record breaking low of minus 6.9 degrees was recorded overnight in Mount Hotham and Falls Creek, Victoria.
    And along with the cold came the snow.
    The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) said up to eight centimeters (3¼ inches) of snow has been recorded by locals around Eukey and Stanthorpe on the Granite Belt.

    http://iceagenow.info/2015/07/queensland-australia-biggest-snowstorm-in-31-years/

  40. In 1966 snow fell at Bogantungan, west of Emerald, Queensland and also at Eungella Plateau, west of Mackay, Queensland; in 1984 Toowoomba, Queensland had a snow fall and this last week Stanthorpe, Queensland had a fall of about 10cm and several days of nasty low temperatures with a solid wind chill factor too.
    I have a friend who scoured the newpapers on The National Library digitised newspaper site and compiled a record of snow fall in Australia from 1850 to the present – there were hundreds of reports – the booklet is about 80pp. It is evidence that weather happens and the cycles don’t seem to have changed that much.

  41. Yep… yet more research by global warming scientists who refuse to take any notice of the real world observational data … on both climate and weather.

  42. Clearly, in order to invite snow to fall you must try to find a climate change academic and let him or her declare “the end of snow”.

  43. professional approach for Catherine Pickering could be 1. to confer with
    Canberra Alpine Club
    president Lloyd Meehan
    who said snow lovers were content with the current weather conditions and snow levels.
    ____
    in the european alps scientists do appreciate such knowledge exchange.
    Hans

  44. Wasn’t it Einstein who defined insanity as doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
    Drop the snow story, guys. It has run its race. Best to stick to the cute, furry mammals that are desperately on the edge of extinction.

  45. As one astute chilly adult put it-
    Children just aren’t going to know what warm is if this keeps up.

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