Euro News posted an article, “‘Easter eggflation’: How climate change and budget cuts have sent the price of chocolate soaring,” claiming that global warming is leading to the destruction of cocoa production in West Africa, which is leading to ever higher prices for chocolate. Based on real world data, this is false, regardless of what modeling says. Sadly, this story has become a mainstream media staple before Easter in recent years, and Climate Realism has debunked it before, here, for example.
Euro News declares that “human-caused climate change has fuelled extreme weather events in West Africa, triggering cocoa production to plummet,” which has led to a surge in the price of chocolate. What’s more, the post goes on to say that “experts have warned that the world may be cocoa-free by 2050, if heat-trapping gases continue to bake the planet.”
While this whole article is an example of exaggerated climate claims, the “cocoa free by 2050” is truly egregious hyperbole.
Modest warming, and any supposed downstream weather effects from it, has been occurring for more than 100 years. Data since the 1960s on cocoa bean production and yield from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show that yields and production rose fairly consistently in West Africa, at a 75 percent and 312 percent rise, respectively. This increase even includes the past few bad seasons, which still rank in the top-10 years for cocoa production. (See figure below)
Regarding the extreme weather that Euro News says is hammering West Africa, Climate Realism has shown that these weather extremes are far from unusual for the region. The reality is that underdeveloped countries have a harder time responding to and building defenses against extreme weather events when they do occur naturally.
Fungicides are useful for combatting the black pod disease that 2023’s heavy rain caused in some West African cocoa groves, and some farms in Ghana make use of them. However, most cocoa production in West Africa comes from smallholder farms that often use minimal inputs like fungicides and fertilizers. This makes the impact of disease outbreaks much worse.
Later, the article admits that “Illegal gold mining, ageing trees, and even cocoa smugglers are also impacting surging prices.”
The ageing tree issue is a bigger one than Euro News would have us believe. Most trees planted by smallholder farms are more than 30 to 40-years-old, which is at or past the productive lifespan of cocoa trees. Some research has estimated that a quarter of all the trees in Ghana are above 40-years-old. Older trees are also more susceptible to disease, damage from weather, and pests. This is especially true for smallholder farms that suffer from soil depletion because they are not able to afford to fertilize the soil.
One study in the journal Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment says that “cocoa orchards in West Africa are overaged and farmers prefer to abandon them and create new ones at forest expense.”
There has long been a structural problem in the way West African cocoa farms operate. They are not adequately planting replacement trees as the older ones age out, and they are depleting the soil in many places so even when new trees are planted, they struggle to reach high yields and suffer the impacts of natural stresses that healthier, well-fed trees would shrug off.
This is not a climate issue, it is a third-world farming practices issue. But the good news is that the locals are more aware of the problem and studies like the ones linked are helping to target the bad practices and offer other solutions.
Weather hasn’t become more extreme in cocoa growing regions and production and yields remain high. Accordingly, Euro News has done their Easter-candy loving audience a disservice by blaming the increased price of chocolate on climate change, when they instead could have given them an interesting and informative lesson in how volatile agriculture is—especially the kind of smallholder “organic” farming that many like to promote as superior to more modern methods.
Cacao trees grow in hot, rainy tropical areas within 20° of latitude from the Equator. Wikipedia
It’s worth noting that the Tropics as described have shown little of the so called ” Global Warming so greatly feared by the uninformed. This lack of change was easily explained by our own Willis, and now more and more others, as a “thermostat” effect by causing thunderstorm formation.
Interesting looking at the ENSO indicator regions.. No warming at all.
“as a “thermostat” effect by causing thunderstorm formation.”
Rick Will showed this several years, or more, ago.
The climate scam has become the biggest get-out-of-jail-free card the world has ever known.
It provides cover for incompetent government and bunglers of every persuasion.
I enjoy Linnea’s articles, both in style and content. Good research delivered in a very readable form. Thanks.
Hershey’s chocolate has promised to use real chocolate in their chocolate candy now. Expect climate nuts to go crazy. Rainforest destruction!!!!! Keep our candy soy based!
See my comment below.
What is the optimum range for temperature, sunshine, humidity,, rain, wind, etc., for growing Cocoa?
What is the marginal range for temperature, sunshine, humidity,, rain, wind, etc., for growing Cocoa?
What is the zero production range for temperature, sunshine, humidity,, rain, wind, etc., for growing Cocoa?
What is the death range for temperature, sunshine, humidity,, rain, wind, etc., for growing Cocoa?
Without those numbers, one cannot make any claim of what climate, erm weather, is doing to the crops in any location.
And, also, the data is needed for each variety and/or species used to produce cocoa beans.
The alarmist article strikingly fails to include other economic factors. Surprised that tariffs are not mention and likewise the blame in not put squarely on DJT (to distract from the Epstein files).
Back in the 70s my father in law had a closet full of coffee. The crops had suffered some freeze or other disaster so he stocked up. We called it his hoarding closet. Some other shortage would come up, he would redistribute the coffee and the current shortage would go in. Depression era guy.
Agricultural economics, land titles, and farming practices are rather harder to use as headline length claims. Alleging a curse by the ghost of John Harvey Kellogg is as relevant as climate change.
I wonder what causes Climate Lieflation, as in “if heat-trapping gases continue to bake the planet”? We’ve gone from “global warming” to “climate baking”. What’s next, “climate roasting”, or perhaps “climate broiling”? Ooh, I know, “Climate incineration”. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
You left out climate boiling and climate burning.
I just hope while I am out baking in a baking planet, someone will baste me when I roll over. 🙂
In related news:
“Hershey’s will return to using classic milk and dark chocolate recipes in most of its products by 2027, following backlash over the use of substitute ingredients in its candies. This change is partly in response to criticism from Brad Reese, the grandson of the inventor of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups.” [DDG Search Assist]
Also, see . . .
Hershey reverses Reese’s ingredient changes after backlash • Spotlight PA