Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
Michael Bastasch at TheDailyCaller recently penned an amusing article titled the 25 Years of Predicting The Global Warming ‘Tipping Point’. It’s an enjoyable read, beginning:
For decades now, those concerned about global warming have been predicting the so-called “tipping point” — the point beyond which it’ll be too late to stave off catastrophic global warming.
Bastasch then lists and discusses “some of the ‘greatest’ predictions made by scientists, activists and politicians — most of which we’ve now passed,” including:
- 2015 is the ‘last effective opportunity’ to stop catastrophic warming
- President Barack Obama is the last chance to stop global warming
- The U.N.’s top climate scientist said in 2007 we only had four years to save the world
- Environmentalists warned in 2002 the world had a decade to go green
The entire article should make you smile. You can find it here.
Won’t climate alarmists eventually say something so stupid that a majority of those who believe in CAGW will finally be forced into the realization the their beliefs are absurd?
Isn’t THIS that inarguably stupid thing?
Even the scientifically illiterate should be able to understand that nights are cooler and days are warmer by a much larger amount than even the most strident alarmists claim the planet has warmed over the past XX years. A few degrees of temperature rise or fall CANNOT be a health threat.
The article should have been titled “Take Off Your Jacket or You’ll Catch Your Death of Hot!” That would have been more indicative of its connection to reality.
Daily Caller is also linked in today’s California Water News, in an article about California’s 1976 drought being blamed on catastrophic anthropogenic global cooling. Note the links to historic global cooling articles.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/05/04/flashback-1976-scientists-blamed-california-drought-on-global-cooling/
Excerpts:
Flashback 1976: Scientists Blamed California Drought On Global Cooling
Michael Bastasch 3:29 PM 05/04/2015
California was stuck in a deep drought during Gov. Jerry Brown’s first term, much like the one the state is currently going through. The only difference is that global cooling, not warming, was blamed for causing drought in the late 1970s.
In 1976, the New York Times reported that California was “so dry, brush fires have started several weeks early” and that “water is being rationed.” But in the 1970s, scientists blamed this drought on global cooling.
The Times reported that climatologists “believe that the climate has moved into a cooling cycle, which means highly erratic weather for decades to come.” Scientists worried that the world’s population had gotten so high that minor “shifts in climate could be catastrophic.”
[…]
A “skeptical scientist” told the New York Times in 1976 that “some of their stuff is right out of fantasyland” regarding predictions that global cooling was going to make the weather more erratic.
But climate science has changed since the 1970s, and droughts are no longer blamed on global cooling. Instead, some climate scientists and environmentalists blame droughts on global warming — which they say is the result of man-made carbon dioxide emissions.
California’s Gov. Brown, who is serving out his fourth term, is once again presiding over a state mired in drought. Brown’s response to todays drought is almost identical to policies he pushed in the 1970s. During the 1970s, Brown said “this is an era of limits and there are very hard choices to make.”
Brown hasn’t changed his mind much since then. This time though, he’s worried that global warming could deplete California’s water supplies. The Democratic Governor has imposed severe water restrictions on households, businesses and local governments.
[…]
While California’s drought is hurting the state, scientists have said it’s not being caused by global warming.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/noaa-climate-change-calif.-drought-18421
(H/T Real Science)
OMG! You have shown me that Gov. Brown causes California droughts!! Then and now…
HOLY COW! Ever go over and visit http://www.theconversation.com/us/topics/climate-change ? VERY alarmist and fear mongering, and very entertaining (Laughable) for me, now that I know what I know.
Very funny – and gladly posted on Facebook.
Good article for Cinco de Mayo! I’m a a tipping point myself Ole!
Repent. The worse case scenario is nigh.
I have no intention of repenting. It took me most of a lifetime to get unpent.
Well, the first time I pented, it stuck, so I’ve never had the need to repent.
The quality of the propaganda reached a tipping point a long time ago and has been sliding downhill ever since.
I prefer “The End Is Nay”.
I am pretty sure the world has ended, but popular consensus and the news media hasn’t caught up with it yet. It’s funny how often they miss the big story.
As far as the tipping point, I had an aunt who was quite often tipsy in the afternoon. I am not sure if these things are related, but correlation seems to be big in pop science now a daze.
You have to remember what the goals of most of these people are : the end of capitalism, massive wealth redistribution and global government. Most of them know the “predictions” are just a means the those ends …. and that the truth is not really relevant. Most of them, apart from Prince Charles that is ….. he’s just thick.
You’re right that those are the goals of some of the CAGW activists.
The complete picture is more complicated, and shows why we should avoid the nasty smugness of the Alarmists.
Anecdotally, a large portion of the Cult are well-meaning, generally nice people who have lives and jobs and kids, and probably not a lot of time to completely focus on the issue for long enough to see the stupidity of their current beliefs. This misunderstanding is the result of several cognitive biases, not of any intent to induce world socialism.
We should be the warm, inviting refuge of Truth, not just the equally nasty other end of the spectrum.
Sadly, you all seem to have missed the point. For all of the quotes given, the argument is that we will have missed the chance to prevent a 2C rise. Becuase of the path we have already taken, and our failure to act in the past decade, we will shoot past a 2C rise in temperatures any time between 2040 and 2060, with dire implications for our children and grand children? Catastrophic? You define the word. But however extreme you feel that the outcome will be, your children and grand children will live in an abruptly changing world, where everything that you have taken for granted will never be theirs to have, including water resource pressure, food pressure, uncommon diseases, and more, not to mention the global implications of the refugees and wars that will result from these new, added pressures.
You can mock all that you want, but these predictions have already come true. We have missed our chance to avoid a 2C rise… your arrogant and ignorant refusal to accept the science not withstanding.
Dear “Warmist”,
It does not matter if you are still brainwashed by the Global Warming CON: just watch and listen to this (link below) and you will realize that you have been CONNED by the BBC and the UK government and the United Nations for many years. Please write to your MP and complain about the CON and say you want your (our) money back.
PS: Remember … they even spent £6,000,000- of our money on a television advertisement which tried to frighten our children into believing that CO2 is very bad !
https://youtu.be/MxRk-9o9QOA
If you are in North America, please try and discover how all of your tax-payer monies have been squandered.
As a starting point you should read Anthony’s article of yesterday entitled, “Fighting back against the double standard on climate funding at Harvard”. It should make your blood boil and it is only the tip of the “iceberg”, so, instead of worrying about the earth and children, you ought to claim all that money back for the benefit of those “children”; after all, you cannot affect the earth but you can get your money back if you feel so concerned.
If the above is not to your liking then, in your particular case, I recommend that you listen to Patrick Moore PhD before you do anything with your type-writer machine. Thank you.
YesAWarmist
You assert
Sadly, you have got all of that completely wrong.
One point that you have “missed” is that global temperature rises by 3.8°C over six months of each year and falls by 3.8°C over the other six months of each year. This is nearly double the 2°C rise you fear but it happens each and every year with nobody noticing it. (The rise and fall of global temperature by 3.8°C in each year is a result of the oceans being greater heat sinks than land and the Northern and Southern hemispheres having different coverage by land).
Another point you have “missed” is that rise in global temperature ANOMALLY stopped about 18 years ago. So there is no reason to think “we will shoot past a 2C rise in temperatures any time between 2040 and 2060”. And something which does not happen cannot provide any “consequences” be they good or “dire”.
Indeed, you have “missed” that the ideas which provided assertions of certain rise in global temperatures are known to be wrong. In fact, those assertions are yet another of the “failed the end is nigh predictions”.
The explanation for this is in IPCC AR4 (2007) Chapter 10.7 which can be read at
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-7.html
It says there
In other words, it was expected that global temperature would rise at an average rate of “0.2°C per decade” over the first two decades of this century with half of this rise being due to atmospheric GHG emissions which were already in the system.
This assertion of “committed warming” should have had large uncertainty because the Report was published in 2007 and there was then no indication of any global temperature rise over the previous 7 years. There has still not been any rise and we are now way past the half-way mark of the “first two decades of the 21st century”.
So, if this “committed warming” is to occur such as to provide a rise of 0.2°C per decade by 2020 then global temperature would need to rise over the next 5 years by about 0.4°C. And this assumes the “average” rise over the two decades is the difference between the temperatures at 2000 and 2020. If the average rise of each of the two decades is assumed to be the “average” (i.e. linear trend) over those two decades then global temperature now needs to rise before 2020 by more than it rose over the entire twentieth century. It only rose ~0.8°C over the entire twentieth century.
Simply, the “committed warming” has disappeared (perhaps it has eloped with Trenberth’s ‘missing heat’?).
This disappearance of the “committed warming” is – of itself – sufficient to falsify the AGW hypothesis as emulated by climate models. If we reach 2020 without any detection of the “committed warming” then it will be 100% certain that all projections of global warming are complete bunkum.
Richard
How seriously can you take somebody who seriously believes he can see into the mind of the Pope?
Pope Francis wants to weigh in on global warming, and is expected to issue an encyclical saying basically the same thing. Francis will likely reiterate that 2015 is the last chance to stop massive warming.
Ah, but like the alarmists’ use of ‘could’, ‘may’ and ‘possibly’ he uses the get out words ‘is expected’ and ‘will likely’.
Reading this a couple of days late… This is seriously one of the funniest comment threads I’ve seen. Gotta love it… puts the whole CAGW meme into its true clownish perspective.