For The First Time Since 1969, No US Tornadoes Reported In March
The US tornado count for March 2015? Zero. That’s right, so far this month there have been no tornadoes reported in the U.S. — this is only the second time this has happened since 1950, according to Weather Channel meteorologist Greg Forbes. “We are in uncharted territory with respect to lack of severe weather,” Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at NOAA, said in a statement. “This has never happened in the record of [Storm Prediction Center] watches dating back to 1970.” –Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, 18 March 2015
So there you have it, despite what projections there may be for the future, and remember projections are not reality until they have been shown to be accurate, the consensus regarding Cyclone Pam is that there is no clear evidence for a link between it and climate change. This means that any responsible scientist would not assume such a link exists, as it hasn’t been proven. The answer must not be ‘it’s difficult to say’ – the only scientifically valid answer is ‘there is no link.’ –David Whitehouse, Global Warming Policy Forum, 17 March 2015
The BBC, Tim Palmer & Cyclone Pam
The global Accumulated Cyclone Energy shows no trend, since satellite monitoring began in the 1970’s, and the frequency of major hurricanes is not increasing. Even the IPCC admits there is no evidence that intense cyclones have been increasing. It appears that making up numbers as you go along, and making claims that are negated by a few simple checks, have become the norm for climate scientists. John Humphrys seemed to suspect that he was being lied to, but was so poorly briefed that he was unable to effectively challenge Tim Palmer. Honest scientists must be pulling their hair out at the damage being done to their good name. –Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, 17 March 2015
Despite reports of utter devastation six days after Cyclone Pam pummeled the impoverished South Pacific island nation, Vanuatu appears to be providing something of a lesson in how to survive a category 5 storm. The United Nations says the official death toll is 11 and Prime Minister Joe Natuman told Reuters it would not rise significantly. “Hurricanes or cyclones are not a new thing, since when people started living in these islands maybe about 5,000 years ago this type of event occurs every year,” said Natuman. “I think also we are now more organized in terms of our disaster management.” –Stephen Coates, Reuters, 19 March 2015
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
AGW theory is laughable because their basic assumptions as to how the atmosphere would behave due to global warming in the first place have not turned out.
Read the article above.
They then cover themselves by trying to say their theory (which it did not!) predicted a more meridional jet stream pattern would evolve in response to global warming and this in turn would lead to more severe weather.
This is in direct opposition to what their theory said originally which was a more zonal atmospheric circulation and less extremes in weather.
This report goes against model predictions, so clearly the observations must be wrong.
The Left never let facts stand in the way of a desired story.
Tornados are weather, not climate.
Their individual occurrence or absence proves neither a warmist or alarmist theory.
A trend may demonstrate some link. However credibility of both groups is undermined by trying to link warming or the lack of it to their incidence.
Probably true.
Now, how far down that rabbit hole must one go to prove their credibility ?
Stupid question, I’ll bet there are models for that.
“Tornados are weather, not climate”
“credibility of both groups is undermined by trying to link warming or the lack of it to their incidence”
Terry,
Climate is just the weather over a long period, which includes all the extremes/ranges in weather elements that occur and the frequency of that occurrence.
Part of the climate of “Tornado Alley” in the Southern Plains of the US, includes violent tornadoes that occur with a higher frequency than any other place on the planet.
If global warming contributes to less tornadoes in Tornado Alley, for sound meteorological reasons and this has actually been observed in the last 30 years, then why would this not be significant?
Same thing with keeping track of hurricanes and droughts. Even if they are rare occurrences, like the severe drought of 2012(first widespread drought in 24 growing seasons in the US Midwest-a new record for best growing conditions ever for that #1 world grain producing area) or there are no major hurricanes(cat 3 or higher) to hit the US in almost a decade, these extreme events that DO happen are important in defining the climate where they DO hit.
When these extreme weather events go down like they have over the past 30 years, in a world that claims they are going up, it is significant.
Not just significant regardless of who is saying what about it, but especially significant to correct the false, widely politicized information designed to convince our world that extreme weather is increasing.
OMG Global warming has stopped Tornados from happening…
think of the Children, when they grow up they won’t even know what a Tornado looks like.
gasps, waves hands in air, gestures wildly…..
The goddess Pam predicts stormy weather the likes of which has not been seen. Why? Because this wee little redheaded Leprechaun lass is pushing 59 and is having hot flashes that would melt diamonds!!!!
Don’t laugh funny boy! My prediction, based on a model, is likely to occur! With high confidence!
Was that a threat ?
Ahhhhh – The Missing Heat.
(Nodding head knowingly, as I head for the exit…..)
Hang in there, Kiddoo! I had some ‘thermal instabilities’ a year or so back m’self. Finally traced it to a cantankerous thyroid that needed rejiggerin with suitable synthetic endocrine supplements. Thankfully, I’m once again dependent on the wood stove for intermittent hot flashes.
I’ll disagree with Joe Bastardi’s active spring tornado forecast. We’re still in an El Niño base state which tends to reduce tornado counts vs. normal. Notice on the chart posted by Mike above that the spikes in the 2000s occurred during La Niña years instead. Sure they may be severe weather and tornadoes from mid-April onward, but the overall count should remain below- not above- normal.
Time will reveal the grand experiment…..
Matt,
There is a tendency for more tornadoes In La Nina years like 2011 and 1974 and less in El Nino years(just like there is more global cooling in La Nina years and more warming in El Nino years), so I agree with the idea but exceptions to that are great enough, so that in any one season, this can be completely swamped by other factors.
Must check out Piers Corbyn’s predictions, he’s often spot on.
May is when tornado season gets extra tough in Oklahoma. We make it through May and I’ll give more credence to any forecasts of diminished tornado activity, because you just never know…
We are seeing a big drop in the number of tornados. Does anyone know if this is worldwide?
Climate models predict the moon to be tornado free. IPCC recommends similar solution for earth.
This article is incorrect. There had been an increase in tornadoes they are hiding in the ocean at depth called Kelvinnados.
I have it. Global Weirding will cause MORE TORNADOES. less often. Definitely. MORE TORNADOES. less often.
Lack of extreme weather is extreme weather.
(See, they are not just clever. They are cleverer. They have invented all-weather weather.)
Just received the latest National Geographic which we have been subscribing to for thirty years or thereabouts but this one is looking like the final. The editorial is aghast ‘50% of Americans do not believe in climate change!!!’ And they are lumping these people in with anti-evolutionists, anti fluoride, anti vaccination groups etc. A good way to alienate their readership if ever there was one.
Why don’t people realise that weather events are no different on average it is just that many more people are now living in areas that were sensibly unpopulated – flood plains and low lying coastal areas. Severe weather events have always happened somewhere. If no one was there to record is it assumed that none occurred?
Old woman of the north,
Here is a recent WUWT thread on that hideous National Geographic hit piece.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/03/13/science-or-dogma-at-the-national-geographic-society/
Everyone basically agrees with you: the article was a superb way to alienate what’s left of NG readership.
Interesting what the IPPC have to say about Tornados-
“There is low confidence in any observed long-term (i.e., 40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (i.e.,
intensity, frequency, duration), after accounting for past changes in observing capabilities. It is likely that there has been
a poleward shift in the main Northern and Southern Hemisphere extratropical storm tracks. There is low confidence in
observed trends in small spatial-scale phenomena such as tornadoes and hail because of data inhomogeneities and
inadequacies in monitoring systems”
BBC tries to link Vanuatu to Climate Change: http://www.proton4.com/science/bbc-links-vanuatu-disaster-to-climate-change/
Jo Nova has a good article relating to Vanuatu and Pam. Take a look at the sea level rise and the temperature graphs for Vanuatu – they are essentially FLAT:
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/03/vanuatu-sea-levels-how-much-did-they-contribute-to-cyclone-damage/
Looks like Winter in the South continued right through March, rather than really ending in February as is the norm. However, the last week has started show the the first signs of change.
Tornadoes are now reported in several places in the US – and it is March still so the heading of this post is now incorrect!
Here’s the link!
https://www.facebook.com/28storms
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/26/us/oklahoma-storms/