When I got this press release from NOAA a few minutes ago, the first thing I did was check the NOAA NESDIS sea surface temperature map for the tell-tale El Niño pattern signature, because NOAA didn’t include any SST graphic in the press release. I sure don’t see an El Niño pattern in today’s SST product.
Now, compare today’s product to the one from August 27th, 2009, when there actually was an El Niño, something they reference in the press release.
Source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.8.27.2009.gif
Seems like a reach to me, especially when the report referenced in the PR says:
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions.
Update: Confusion anyone? AP’s Seth Borenstein got this quote from the NOAA staffer quoted in the PR and tweeted it:
@afreedma Halpert acknowledges: "What we've learned from this event is that our definition is very confusing and we need to work on it."
— @borenbears (@borenbears) March 5, 2015
Update2: It seems there is a decision flowchart for calling an El Niño, I wonder if they followed it this time?
Source: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/decembers-enso-update-close-no-cigar
Here’s the PR:
NOAA: Elusive El Niño arrives
Forecasters predict it will stay weak, have little influence on weather
and climate
Contact
Maureen O’Leary, maureen.oleary@noaa.gov, 202-578-5257
March 5, 2015
The long-anticipated El Niño has finally arrived, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In their updated monthly outlook released today, forecasters issued an El Niño Advisory to declare the arrival of the ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator.
Due to the weak strength of the El Niño, widespread or significant global weather pattern impacts are not anticipated. However, certain impacts often associated with El Niño may appear this spring in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, such as wetter-than-normal conditions along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
“Based on the persistent observations of above-average sea surface temperatures across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean and consistent pattern of sea level pressure, we can now say that El Niño is here,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and ENSO forecaster. “Many climate prediction models show this weak El Niño continuing into summer.”
Forecasters say it is likely (50 to 60 percent chance) that El Niño conditions will continue through the summer.
The last El Niño, in 2009-2010, was a moderate to strong event. Other recent El Niño’s took place from 2002-2003 (moderate), 2004-2005 (weak), 2006-2007 (weak to moderate). The last very strong El Nino was 1997-1998 and was known for providing heavy rainfall in the West, especially California. As for this year, “this El Nino is likely too late and too weak to provide much relief for drought-stricken California,” added Halpert.
NOAA scientists will continue to monitor the situation and will issue its next monthly update on April 9.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and our other social media channels. Visit our news release archive.
El Nino? I don’t see it.
here is what wikibible has to say it should look like:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o#mediaviewer/File:1997_El_Nino_TOPEX.jpg
here is what we have today:
“http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-153.22,-2.03,414”
if anything it is an anti el nino
wow.
I look at the two charts at the front of this post, here..
?w=1400&h=764
and the one below it, and I do not see how they claim record SST , or have the global SST cooled a lot since a few months ago?
Has anyone archived the demise of NOAA’s 3-Month Outlook “Official Forecasts”? As of today, there are NO Below Normal Temperature Probabilities beyond the current 0.5mn MAM 2015 Forecast and NO Above Normal Precipitation Probabilities beyond 3.5mn JJA 2015 Forecast made February 19, 2015. These Probabilities were functioning in December 2014 out to 6.5mn.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Locally in California, there have been some El Nino characteristics: (1) a warm winter because of more tropical air, (2) several warm drenching Pineapple Express storms (unfortunately sporadic due to a lack of storms generated in the Gulf of Alaska because of the shifted polar jet), and (3) sea lions starving because cold-water fish have moved to deeper, cooler water. The beaches have been comfortably swimmable all winter in SoCal. But scientifically speaking, no true El Nino, but we can hope!
Joe Ybarra,
“Comfortably swimmable??” Where are these beaches? I visited San Diego in late June (this was around 2002 but it isn’t THAT much warmer this year) which is about as far south as you can go in CA …. and the water was as cold as it feels in Puget Sound (Washington coast). It would have to have been TWENTY degrees warmer to have been “comfortable” to me.
Are you especially warm-blooded?
Really wondering!
Janice
There is a weak Modoki enso event occurring, and as such, you see the kind of major cold winter in the east that we saw in 02-03 and many of the winters in the late 50s-70s. Even the JAMSTEC site, which along with SCRIPPS are the best low latitude centers ( I watch both of them extensively and even though they disagree with my ideas on AGW, their work on enso events is fantastic) says so, right on their front page.
February 19, 2015
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction and present observations show that an “El Niño Modoki”condition prevails in the tropical Pacific. As per the model predictions the warmer than normal SST anomalies are expected to continue in the central Pacific through the boreal summer.
I dont understand what is so hard to see about that, given the weather behaved very close to what those type of enso events produce. There is no super nino as was opined, but the reason we had the brutal winter idea was because of the idea this event would evolve. So I am having trouble understanding the resistance to the idea their is a weak event occurring. Whats the big deal? Its the very warm n Pac that is the reason for the warm global temps and fighting over whether this is weak enso event or not seems to me to be a waste of time. Its happening, the sensible weather is similar to such occurrences, and was mentioned back in the preseason as a reason for why we had another brutal winter with plenty of snow. One of the problems is we seem to want to box these into some kind of neat package. The atmosphere is never neat but there is enough to substantiate the weak enso classification.
Joe, any idea when the California drought will break?
My guess is next winter. Then the year after that, 2016/17, I see as having a good chance of turning into a flood year, similar to the winter of 1996/97.
No need to wait for actual rain – spray your plants with re-analysis water.
Can wishing make it so? http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/03/05/el_ni_o_it_s_here_and_it_will_boost_global_warming_to_record_highs.html
Slate went to Columbia Univ (home to NASA GISS) for a comment.
Somehow, I’m having trouble warming up to his comments, though I’ll agree Modoki El Niños deserve study. Or this from the author, that suggests (my twisted interpretation) that snowy winters presage El Niños:
I wondered why the needle on the ENSO meter jumped up. Is the map perhaps old or something? It doesn’t seem to justify the needle’s position.
As keeper of the ENSO meter, I should know but I don’t except that it sure looks like a bunch of people want an El Niño.
I get the data currently from Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology which says at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ :
remain warmer than average, but within the neutral range,
nice example of double dutch!!
BoM doesn’t feel confident.
‘All international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely to remain warmer than average, but within the neutral range, until at least May. By mid-year, six of the eight models indicate SSTs will exceed El Niño thresholds. However, accuracy of forecasts made at this time are lower than those at other times of the year, and hence some caution should be exercised. ‘
Speaking of the Californis drought, it might be worth mentioning that the reservoirs are in much better shape than they were a year ago — about 1-2/3 last year’s level when I added up the numbers about a week ago.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reservoirs/RES
I realize that reservoirs are only part of the picture. The level and moisture content of mountain snowpack, and soil moisture content, and the Colorado River watershed conditions, are also keys. But it seems like the CA drought bottomed out a year ago, and that the state is recovering.
Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric science and a moderate warmist (believes in AGW but condemns the alarmists), was one of the first to diverge from the “strong El Nino” crowd a year ago. Here’s what he wrote about it a couple weeks ago.
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/02/whatever-happened-to-el-nino.html
Forecasters predict it will stay weak, have little influence on weather
and climate…
Since El Nino is a part of the climate, wouldn’t a weak one have as much effect as a strong one, only the effect is different?
Since El Nino is a part of the climate, wouldn’t a weak one have as much effect as a strong one, only the effect is different?
I understand that El Nino and La Nina pull the weather away from the climactic averages.
It is a marginal Modoki Type II.
http://econintersect.com/pages/weather/weather.php?post=201503094543