Corky Boyd writes:
The latest NATICE graphics show Lake Erie totally covered with 9/10+ ice, Lakes Superior and Huron are nearly totally covered with 9/10+ and Ontario about 80% covered with 7/10+. It is likely Superior and Huron will join Erie with total coverage of 9/10+ in today or tomorrow’s report.
It is possible Ontario could do the same as it is experiencing near or sub-zero temperatures tonight.
The NATICE daily reports are posted about 5:00pm EST. Link is here:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/products/great_lakes.html
If you have trouble pulling up the ice charts, here are direct links to the West and East areas for Feb. 18:
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/special/great_lakes/2015/charts/composite_east/el150218color.jpg
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/special/great_lakes/2015/charts/composite_west/wl150218color.jpg
It is an unusual event for 3 of the lakes to freeze over, which only happens once every 6 to 8 years. Four or more freezing is a most unusual event.
[We’ll have further reports on WUWT as we know more – Anthony]
Looking at the weather map this morning, I noticed an isolated circle of extra cold, from SE Missouri through far southern Illinois and into Indiana and Kentucky. What stuck out the most was a -18 at Cape Girardeau, MO. I thought wow, that cold, that far south, it’s got to be a record, and it is, by a mile. Not only that, but digging through the weather records at WU, that blew away the record for all of February of -11. In fact, the coldest day I could find, was that -18, which looks to me to be the all time record.
http://classic.wunderground.com/US/MO/111.html#REC
They’re now saying -19. If so, that would be an all time record. Pretty news worthy whenever all time records fall.
Polar vortex. Zone ozone.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_toz_nh_f00.gif
http://www.livescience.com/42723-polar-vortex-chilling-effects-spied-by-heat-seeking-satellite-cam-time-lapse-animation.html
Would have been nice if this animation had been done with the same projection, and maybe with temperatures as anomalies instead of absolute. Still it gives a nice feel for how cold air coming out of the Arctic into NA is offset by warm air other places — like Alaska and N. Europe — causing them to be unseasonally balmy.
How very fortunate for those who dwell in those frigid climes.
Once again selective vision causes you to forget how to do algebra. We could always talk about Antarctic sea ice extent I suppose, but late September is a long way off yet.
Word is that folks in the northeast are wondering about CO2. Seems that they are disappointed with the results so far.
Don’t want to be there when they realize that they have been conned.
There’s always a chance they’ll recall the meaning of the words “global mean” or “long term trend” and forgive you for being so innumerate. But sure, you may not wish to risk a visit any time soon.
Here in the northeastern US it’s been so cold that climate campaigners at Yale had to cancel their “global warming” rally for Global Divestment Day for the forseeable future. It just doesn’t get any better than this.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/02/13/its-too-cold-to-protest-global-warming-at-yale/
Thanks for taking the time to write that explanation. It made for interesting reading.
Some ten years ago, maybe, Walter Pitman came to U. Wyo. and gave a seminar about an idea he had regarding the rapid end to ice ages. If I recall rightly, he suggested that the insulating ice covering would allow a covered ocean to maintain heat, which then would facilitate large Polynyas to open, pump heat into the atmosphere and clear the surrounding land areas of ice. The resulting albedo feedback would end the ice age.
I like to argue with guests and I was quite unconvinced with Pitmans scheme, because, I argued, open Polynya would radiate very effectively and this heat would likely never stay around to melt ice. It would be gone to space. It seems to me there is some of your explanation in what he was trying to outline, but your explanation also shows that the process is very complex. There are many competing factors and it’s also location dependent.
And based on where I live, we have had maybe +4 degrees C compared to “normal” winter for a second year in a row. Just wanted to let you know.
This latest record breaking air-mass, follows a traditional path, that avoids any open water. That is how it is able to retain its bitter cold characteristics for 1000s of miles. It fallows the characteristic shape of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, and is the product of, a cold air mass, that originates in Siberia, and passes north of Alaska, before descending into the eastern half of North America. It is a reminder of why we have Glacial Ridges in the Midwest, and bare rock scrapped clean, in the North Central regions.
Jet Stream meandering (mentioned by one or two commentators further above) has not much to do with the AGW, but often has to do with ionising upper atmosphere by solar particles impact, measured by Ap index and visually observed as an aurora.
As soon as the impact is over Ap index and aurora will subside but the layers of atmosphere stay ionised for days and even weeks, depends on the strength of initial impact.
There were geomagnetic storms in the recent weeks, most recently a major one just two days ago http://www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/images/aphisto.png (bottom graph).
Ionised air moved by the Earth rotation is a form of electric current, its flow is strongly affected by the Earth’s magnetic field (Lorentz force)
There are two areas that regularly curve Jet stream, one west of the Hudson Bay and the other one in the central Siberia (North of lake Baikal)
http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/EarthMagneticField_files/image010.jpg
Another location is Kursk magnetic anomaly (north of Black Sea).
For number of days following a major geomagnetic storm the Jet stream will curve around these locations as verified by
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=62.42,90.47,345
Very interesting – great information!
Checking the 10 day forecast for Chicago, Adrian, MI, and Buffalo, NY and a bunch of other cities around the great lakes doesn’t bode well for any melting to occur on the lakes. Not many of the cities will go above freezing, and a lot will bottom out below 0 F for 6 of the entire 10 days. Could be another new record this year for Great Lakes ice.
Not a problem has ‘magic ‘ global warming also causes more cold events , which is why its ‘magic’
Or did people actual think their was some science behind it ?
Meanwhile, down just north of Tucson, AZ, it was in the 70s today. I got so hot killing weeds and buffell grass…which ia an invasive species from Africa. But one must struggle to take care of the yard.
Lake Champlain frozen over completely (closed) for the second year in a row 16 February. See NWS and Burlington Free Press below.
http://www.weather.gov/
btv/lakeclosehttp://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2015/02/16/ice-lake-champlain/23527289/
I just checked the Thursday NOAA report for the latest Great Lakes Ice cover. Even though Wednesday night was below zero F for much of the lakes, The % of ice cover for Lakes Michigan and Ontario actually dropped.
This is fascinating and may demonstrate the importance of wind, since the temperature only sure can’t be responsible. Thursday night is to be even colder.
I am on the southern shore of Lake Ontario about 30 miles west of Rochester (very near the “N” on that map in the orginial post). At this location the lake bottom is about “waist deep” out to about 100 yards from shore then drops off quickly to several hundreds of feet. A hard “crust” of ice (with mountains from frozen spray) in the shallow water forms once the air temp drops to below about 20 (F) and stays there until the temp rises above that level.
The ice in the “deep water” is very subject to the winds. A steady wind from the NW/N/NE will push all the floating ice/slush against the southern shore. A gusty wind will break up the ice. A southern wind will push the ice away from the shore here. When there is no wind a thin layer of nearly flat ice (smooth like glass) will form. When the wind changes the ice can disappear in a manner of hours and open water will be present. Wind has a huge effect on the ice coverage out in the open water.
There was open water with waves visible at this location a few days ago, now with steady snowfall there is not enough visibility to see far enough to where the open water normally is. And I am sure not walking out there to see if its frozen or not, probably a thick soup of slush/semi-solid ice on the surface now. Doubtful that there is solid ice all the way across the lake, but it is possible. Given the 10-20 mph winds (mostly from the W/NW) the last few days the wave action is probably preventing a solid layer of ice from forming.
Cheers, KevinK.
This from overseas today. Given the publication times, and all sorts of other delays, take for what it shows.
So, you are on the southern shore? This would imply the ice is blocked up on the north shore when the photo was taken.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2960716/Lake-Ontario-sees-record-frozen-4-700-square-miles-ice-forms-Great-Lakes-ONE-NIGHT.html#ixzz3SFwfVjQJ
Yes, RACook, a few days ago (around about Tuesday) there was open water visible here on the southern shore of Lake Ontario. This matches the satellite photo in your post.
The Lake is “highly variable”, calm as glass sometimes and an “angry” froth of water at other times. I have seen very impressive reflections of the rising/setting Sun/Moon off the perfectly still surface of the lake at times, and had it throw an “awful” frozen mist (-20 degree windchill) in my face at other times.
But, all in all She’s a beauty, I’m glad I have a chance to live right alongside her.
Cheers, KevinK.
Kevin & RA
It is Friday night February 20 and I just checked tonight’s ice cover report. I believe it shows the % actually went down for Michigan and Ontario. Last night lows in the area were in teens below zero (at least in Michigan).
So I guess just air temperature is not the only cause for the ice.
I really thought the % would have jumped up as it did in Superior & Huron.
I think Punxsutawney Phil was wrong, it’s going to be 8+ more weeks of winter…
Well that over sized rodent is correct about 39% of the time which makes him quite a bit more accurate than quite a few climate scientists.
rah,
38%. Your generosity is appreciated.
The probability that both are wrong is about 100 percent. “Warmest year ever What arrogant hubris, perhaps only exceeded by their ignorance.
BTW, the groundhog does not have the advantage of adjusting his answer after the fact.
On Planet Earth as opposed to Planet GIGO, 1934 was the hottest year (since 1880 but also possibly since the Medieval Warm Period), with 1998 the warmest recent year & 2014 a distant also ran.
The webpage http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/ftp/glsea/avgtemps/glsea-temps_1024.dat has the daily lake temps, in Celsius, for the Great Lakes for a full year. Here’s the comparison between this day last year (at the top of the chart) and today (at the bottom). Most of the lakes are same as or warmer than last year, except for Lake Ontario…
Daily Lake Average Surface Water Temperature
From
Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis maps
--------------------------------------------------------
Surf. Water Temp. (degrees C)
Year Day Sup. Mich. Huron Erie Ont. St.Clr
--------------------------------------------------------
2014 050 0.20 0.51 0.20 0.20 1.18 0.21
...great big snip...
2015 049 0.26 0.84 0.26 0.20 0.34 0.21
Attention please: This is Gavin Schmidt, here to tell you never mind the Great Lakes. All the warming is over in Alaska and the NW and that is where your attention should be right now. We will inform you when should start paying attention to Great Lakes again.
Thank you.
This has been a public service message.
rah,
He’s got the data to back it up: http://www.livescience.com/42723-polar-vortex-chilling-effects-spied-by-heat-seeking-satellite-cam-time-lapse-animation.html
What are you packing, other than a lame attempt to accuse the other side of cherry picking when that’s where everything you think you know about weather comes from the exact source you are criticizing?
Whoa, Engrish fail there. More coffee ….
Of course he has the data! He makes it up all the time!
Another “Environment Canada” fail.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/canada-winter-forecast-el-nino-should-keep-polar-vortex-at-bay-1.2857371
Chicago just set a new record low this morning of -8F, the 7 day forecast says we won’t get above freezing anytime soon.
The lakes are gonna be making ice for at least the next week.
Sanford, Florida. -1,8 C.
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=28.83296204,-81.36241913&sp=KFLSANFO12
If it keeps this up it’s going to be a repeat of last year. Remember this? http://www.mlive.com/news/ann-arbor/index.ssf/2014/06/water_temperatures_of_one_grea.html
Maybe this should go under Tips & Notes, but seems to fit here, too, for a global perspective on snow & ice, even at subtropical desert latitudes:
http://news.yahoo.com/warnings-blizzards-sweep-across-middle-east-110300793.html
Just heard on the radio that this February is on track to becoming the coldest February on record here on Ontario – beating the average temperatures of the current record – February 1979 – by a full degree Celsius colder. Still a few days to go yet, though. Perhaps global warming will cause the temperatures to whiplash upward?
I think those lakes are as warm as they have ever been. The warmest water is just hiding at the bottom. This is the climate change they are talking about, now cold water rises. (and faster than it ever did before)
In other news, Australia is getting hammered by not one, but two tropical cyclones simultaneously. Isn’t this a fun game?
Once again, a day late and a few hundred bucks short.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/19/cyclone-marcia-climate-crank-wishing-suffering-on-deniers/
Yes, and I’d like to get our cold returned so I could skate here (N Europe). Thank you.
Since we now know that global warming causes it to be cold, I guess that means you are not experiencing global warming where you are.
Alas, here we are on a climate blog and and all we can find to talk about is the weather.
Yes, we really need a snowstorm expert like Michael Mann if we want to talk about the weather.
John M plays the get out of jail free card.
The Aussies can take care of themselves, no ?
I’m “suffering” thru one of the coldest February’s evah, in Chicago.
Just gotta play the cards She deals.
Penn State or the State Pen?
Disclaimer: This is a joke. Any similarity to a real person, living or dead, can only be the figment of a paranoid delusional misfit.
Way to double down. On this one, I find myself hard-pressed to disagree with you.
Glad we agree on this one.
http://www.desmogblog.com/michael-mann-suing-tim-ball-libel
We don’t agree on that one. Notice how we’re not even talking about weather, much less climate any longer. Talk about “clever”.
Don’t blame me that you chose to start talking about jails.
The tail really does wag the dog.
Leave your dog and your tail out of this.
I’ve completely forgotten what we were talking about. I’d ask the dog, but she’s sleeping.
What wags the tongue? CO2?
ATP. Being an aerobic organism, the vocal folds are actuated by a CO2- and H2O-enriched airstream. It’s a GHG two-fer!
oops, lost the nesting. Meant in response to Brandon Gate 11:41. BTW, also have a post in moderation (d word in the link) pointing out Gates is wa-a-a-a-y late with the attempt at being clever with the double cyclone thingee.
Last year the available ice-breakers were struggling to keep critical passageways open for shipping traffic. Anyone know what the situation is this year?
I think they have closed up shipping for the season. See this site http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ I saw only three ships – one by Chicago and two CG boats (Lake St Clair and Lake Erie).
There is a new product on the GL page – it compares 2015-2014-2013 by lake.
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/