Tracking the Blizzard of 2015

blizzard2015-noreaster

National Weather Service forecasters have been tracking a low pressure area that moved from the Midwest into the Atlantic Ocean today, and is expected to become a strong nor’easter that will bring blizzard conditions to the northeastern U.S. The path of the system was captured in a NASA movie of NOAA’s GOES-East satellite imagery.

An animation of visible and infrared imagery from NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental or GOES satellite captured over the period of January 24 through 26 showed the progression of the developing nor’easter.

The satellite animation began on Jan. 24 when clouds associated with a cold front preceding the low, pushed off the U.S. East coast. The front was followed by a low pressure area that moved from the Midwest to the southeast. That low moved over the Carolinas and exited into the Atlantic Ocean on Jan. 26. NOAA’s National Weather Service forecast calls for the low to intensify along the Eastern Seaboard and bring blizzard conditions to the northeastern U.S. on Monday night, January 26 and Tuesday, January 27.

On Monday, January 26, 2015, the National Weather Service noted: A storm system off the East Coast will continue to strengthen as it develops into a major nor’easter on Monday. As the storm moves up the coast, it is expected to bring snowfall of 1-3 feet or more to many parts of the Northeast through Tuesday evening, including New York City and Boston. Strong, gusty winds will combine with the snow to create blizzard conditions along and near the coast.

Winter storm warnings are in effect for the panhandles of West Virginia and Maryland, much of interior New England down to the northern Mid-Atlantic as well as for Nantucket Island, Massachusetts. Winter weather advisories are in effect for portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and the southern Appalachians as well as a narrow area across interior New England.

To create the video and imagery, NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project located at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland overlays the cloud data from NOAA’s GOES-East satellite on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, these data create the entire animation of the storm and show its movement.

GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth’s surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric “triggers” for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes.

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Louis
January 27, 2015 12:10 pm

But, it’s impossible for a consensus of meteorologists to be wrong. Impossible!

January 27, 2015 3:01 pm

http://wabi.tv/weather/

Extremely treacherous driving conditions being reported today across much of the state. Not only have we been dealing with high snowfall rates of 2-3” an hour at times, but strong, gusty winds from the northeast have created blowing and drifting snow with very limited visibility, if any. Stay inside.
Snowfall totals of over a foot have been reported in many spots. Bangor is around 14”as of 2pm this afternoon, spots along the coast are all over a foot. Greenbush had 18”, Eastport 16”, Ellsworth was at a foot, Houlton had 9”, Dover-Foxcroft had 8”, and Millinocket a measly 3.3”.
The highest wind gust as of his writing (2pm) was 81 mph on Seal Island. Winds gusts across the state are also very high. Frequent gusts over 40-45 mph have been reported at stations inland with much higher gusts along the coast.

I’m GUESSING 15 ” here so far but hard to tell due to the 5 foor drifts

Editor
January 27, 2015 3:08 pm

#ForecastBomb #2
First there was #SantaBomb. I was not impressed http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/17/santabomb-winter-storm-predicted-for-northeastern-u-s-at-christmas/#comment-1816525
Now it’s the “historic” storm http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/25/massive-blizzard-forecast-for-new-york-and-boston-area-tuesday-up-to-2-feet-of-snow/
I follow a weather forum, and anything system more than a couple of days out is considered “la-la-land”. Now we see why. Yes, we got lucky with forecasting Sandy, but it was a special case that any competent meteorologist with weather maps (i.e. REAL DATA) could figure out. There was a massive high in the Atlantic, and hurricanes go around highs, not through them. Maybe there will be a serendipitous side-effect in that people will end up less trusting of computer models in general.

mikesixes
January 27, 2015 3:23 pm

Hey, don’t gripe about the blown forecast. It’s not their fault climate change makes it hard to predict the weather.

Rob Dawg
January 27, 2015 3:54 pm

24-36 hour models… bad.
24-36 year models… perfect.
Trust us.

jaffa68
January 27, 2015 3:57 pm

“crippling” “historic” – Was it even remotely unusual for the region?

Reply to  jaffa68
January 28, 2015 1:24 pm

Someone who lives there will, I’m sure, correct me if I’m wrong but it was not “unusual”. It’s not an annual event. Maybe not even “common”. But such events have happened before … and before the “CAGW” racket was born. It was a natural event.

January 27, 2015 8:04 pm

To be honest, a 35+ inch snowfall would have been a 5 sigma event at about one in 1,744,277 chances of happening. I think they got what? 4″. A friend who works on Long Island had this to say:
“I’m sitting here at work, there’s about 10 cars out of 500 spaces here. So this place is pretty much empty. The roads were clear on my way in at 8 AM. It took me 10 minutes to dig out the 3 feet in front of my car to get to the cleared street. With no snow on my car whatsoever. It was mostly blowing snow, no whiteout event like they said.”
http://youtu.be/wML2V6crNc0

ren
January 28, 2015 12:52 am

Later this weekend, the track of a storm moving up from the Southwest states will hold the key as to the primary form of precipitation in southeastern New York state, northern New Jersey and southwestern Connecticut.
The storm from the Southwest will have a great deal of moisture to work with and could bring a period of heavy precipitation.
The early indications are the Southwest storm will bring snow transitioning to a wintry mix Sunday night into Monday.
If arctic air over southern Canada was to push in ahead of the storm and hold on, there could be more snow and perhaps an extended period of ice or wintry mix.
In any case, people on the road or with departing or arriving flights should anticipate delays from Sunday night into Monday.
The storm may still be affecting western Pennsylvania on Monday when thousands will gather to hear about the forecast for the rest of the winter from Punxsutawney Phil.
AccuWeather.com will continue to provide updates on the storm through this weekend.
A fresh dose of cold air will follow on Tuesday, regardless of Phil’s prediction.
AccuWeather.com

January 28, 2015 4:35 am

ended up with about 17″ here in mid maine so my forecast of 15-18 was pretty good.
I have spinal damage and can feel pressure changes even minute ones and could tell it didn’t drop as low as expected.
many 5 foot + drifts.
did quick break thru to allow vehicles in and out of road but will be tomorrow for most of cleanup.
wind chills still going to be too bad today.

Joe G
January 28, 2015 9:10 am

Light and fluffy- I will take that type of snow-storm every time! The winds even cleared my roof better than my extended roof-rake.