From Indiana University and the University of East Anglia, this looks like another paper timed for release coinciding with COP20. What is even odder though, is the graphic provided with the press release, which shows global temperature anomaly for 1998, which was a super El Niño event year, the other odd thing is that the graphic (below right) is dated Nov 1tth, 2011. So it’s possible the press officer put it in and it isn’t part of the paper. I can’t tell since it is paywalled. I’ll purchase it, read it, and do a follow up report later.
One thing I can say for certain: bias in Tmin due to encroachment by infrastructure causes a warm bias in the overnight temperatures, and thus the propensity for record lows is diminished in those stations which have been encroached upon in that way. That’s not anything to do with the posited AGW signal, but the simple physics of heat sinks.
Study finds extreme temperature anomalies are warming faster than Earth’s average
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — It’s widely known that the Earth’s average temperature has been rising. But research by an Indiana University geographer and colleagues finds that spatial patterns of extreme temperature anomalies — readings well above or below the mean — are warming even faster than the overall average.
And trends in extreme heat and cold are important, said Scott M. Robeson, professor of geography in the College of Arts and Sciences at IU Bloomington. They have an outsized impact on water supplies, agricultural productivity and other factors related to human health and well-being.
“Average temperatures don’t tell us everything we need to know about climate change,” he said. “Arguably, these cold extremes and warm extremes are the most important factors for human society.”
Robeson is the lead author of the article “Trends in hemispheric warm and cold anomalies,” which will be published in the journal Geophysical Review Letters and is available online. Co-authors are Cort J. Willmott of the University of Delaware and Phil D. Jones of the University of East Anglia.
The researchers analyzed temperature records for the years 1881 to 2013 from HadCRUT4, a widely used data set for land and sea locations compiled by the University of East Anglia and the U.K. Met Office. Using monthly average temperatures at points across the globe, they sorted them into “spatial percentiles,” which represent how unusual they are by their geographic size.
Their findings include:
- Temperatures at the cold and warm “tails” of the spatial distribution — the 5th and 95th percentiles — increased more than the overall average Earth temperature.
- Over the 130-year record, cold anomalies increased more than warm anomalies, resulting in an overall narrowing of the range of Earth’s temperatures.
- In the past 30 years, however, that pattern reversed, with warm anomalies increasing at a faster rate than cold anomalies. “Earth’s temperature was becoming more homogenous with time,” Robeson said, “but now it’s not.”
The study records separate results for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Temperatures are considerably more volatile in the Northern Hemisphere, an expected result because there’s considerably less land mass in the South to add complexity to weather systems.
The study also examined anomalies during the “pause” in global warming that scientists have observed since 1998. While a 16-year-period is too short a time to draw conclusions about trends, the researchers found that warming continued at most locations on the planet and during much of the year, but that warming was offset by strong cooling during winter months in the Northern Hemisphere.
“There really hasn’t been a pause in global warming,” Robeson said. “There’s been a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming.”
Co-author Jones of the University of East Anglia said the study provides scientists with better knowledge about what’s taking place with the Earth’s climate. “Improved understanding of the spatial patterns of change over the three periods studied are vital for understanding the causes of recent events,” he said.
It may seem counterintuitive that global warming would be accompanied by colder winter weather at some locales. But Robeson said the observation aligns with theories about climate change, which hold that amplified warming in the Arctic region produces changes in the jet stream, which can result in extended periods of cold weather at some locations in the mid-northern latitudes.
And while the rate of planetary warming has slowed in the past 16 years, it hasn’t stopped. The World Meteorological Organization announced this month that 2014 is on track to be one of the warmest, if not the warmest, years on record as measured by global average temperatures.
In the U.S., the East has been unusually cold and snowy in recent years, but much of the West has been unusually warm and has experienced drought. And what happens here doesn’t necessarily reflect conditions on the rest of the planet. Robeson points out that the United States, including Alaska, makes up only 2 percent of the Earth’s surface.
Trends in hemispheric warm and cold anomalies†
doi: 10.1002/2014GL062323
Abstract at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062323/abstract
Using a spatial percentile approach, we explore the magnitude of temperature anomalies across the northern and southern hemispheres. Linear trends in spatial percentile series are estimated for 1881-2013, the most recent 30-year period (1984-2013), and 1998-2013. All spatial percentiles in both hemispheres show increases from 1881-2013, but warming occurred unevenly via modification of cold anomalies, producing a reduction in spatial dispersion. In the most recent 30-year period, trends also were consistently positive, with warm anomalies having much larger warming rates than those of cold anomalies in both hemispheres. This recent trend has largely reversed the decrease in spatial dispersion that occurred during the 20th century. While the period associated with the recent slowdown of global warming, 1998-2013, is too brief to estimate trends reliably, cooling was evident in NH warm and cold anomalies during January and February while other months in the NH continued to warm.
When will they ever learn? Have Phil Jones studied Theories of Science? Might have, but definititly not understood what he studied. Have Phil Jones studied Mathematic Statistics? I doubt it.
What have he studied before he became what he is?
Could the last 30 years of the 130 years simply be demonstrating a reversion to the mean ?
🙂 Of course it can but that’s not the point.
The point is that some calling themselves scholars act as if they haven’t passed 7th grade….
“regression to the mean”
Or could the last 30 years have had the anomalies adjusted upwards more than the past?
I suggest he return to the end of the previous warming period in the first third of the last millennium and re-read Francis Bacon. It is a long tome, but it discusses how to do science.
Any time anything begins with “It’s widely known that ” you know that a bs storm follows. I do not care what the topic may be.
I second Your suggestion. I am sorry not to have an extra example of Francis Bacon to offer to him. Does anyone else have?
“Any time anything begins with “It’s widely known that ” you know that a bs storm follows.’
Yep. It’s a well-known fact.
“””””…..Claim from Phil Jones and company: ‘extreme temperature anomalies are warming faster than Earth’s average’….”””””
Lemme see if I have this correct !!
So the cold extremes are warming faster than the average, and the hot extremes are warming faster than the average, and the average isn’t warming faster than the average.
So it is all turning into a bath tub with a big (nearly) stationary dip in the middle.
How does that happen ??
Only in a sauna built in the old fashion way described by arab geographers on route northeast todays Moskow back in 500’s…..
(that is a true fact – they wrote and described some occasions from when they were in a hut built close to a cliff over a hole where wood was burnt before the locals pured cold water on it)
but in real science that wouldn’t happen,
only in pseudoscience….
the Jumps though the hoops on that one…..
“There really hasn’t been a pause in global warming,” Robeson said. “There’s been a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming.”
It seems to me that the Arctic has warmed in the last decade or so, which implies that the rest of the world has cooled.
I was under the impression that the Southern Hemisphere really hasn’t warmed at all, so there wasn’t anything to pause.
““There really hasn’t been a pause in global warming,” Robeson said. “There’s been a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming.””
Well, hang on. Isn’t that the only part of the year that is has been getting warmer in the first place? Then a pause in it is a pause in everything.
There never was much ‘global warming’ in the first place, there was warming ‘on average’ caused (primarily) by NH winter warming. Now it stopped. Is this true or not true?
Robeson is not lying, he is letting people, in their Gruberized stupidity, draw an incorrect conclusion (he hopes) from a truthful statement carefully constructed to give the impression it is ‘still warming’ elsewhere without actually saying it out loud.
Go Team! Show us your morality!
So if global warming is made up of four components (summer and winter in SH and NH), but a pause in only one causes a pause in the total, then either the other three were not warming and still are not, or any increases in one or more of the other three are balanced by decreases in one or more of the other three.
Isn’t that how maths works?
“Counter intuative”. Yes the whole science is counter intuative. The occasional thing here or there might be credible, but when everything is, there is a 97% of all rational thinking people going “bullshit!”
intuitive….
intuitive…
“The Sun and its solar wind are currently exhibiting extremely low densities and magnetic field strengths, representing states that have never been observed during the space age. The highly abnormal solar activity between cycles 23 and 24 has caused the longest solar minimum in over 80 years and continues into the unusually small solar maximum of cycle 24. As a result of the remarkably weak solar activity, we have also observed the highest fluxes of galactic cosmic rays in the space age and relatively small solar energetic particle events. We use observations from the Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) on the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter to examine the implications of these highly unusual solar conditions for human space exploration. We show that while these conditions are not a show stopper for long-duration missions (e.g., to the Moon, an asteroid, or Mars), galactic cosmic ray radiation remains a significant and worsening factor that limits mission durations. While solar energetic particle events in cycle 24 present some hazard, the accumulated doses for astronauts behind 10 g/cm2 shielding are well below current dose limits. Galactic cosmic radiation presents a more significant challenge: the time to 3% risk of exposure-induced death (REID) in interplanetary space was less than 400 days for a 30 year old male and less than 300 days for a 30 year old female in the last cycle 23–24 minimum. The time to 3% REID is estimated to be ∼20% lower in the coming cycle 24–25 minimum. If the heliospheric magnetic field continues to weaken over time, as is likely, then allowable mission durations will decrease correspondingly. Thus, we estimate exposures in extreme solar minimum conditions and the corresponding effects on allowable durations.”
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/2014SW001084/
?
http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/rtimg/dose.15km.png
has Robeson and Willmott not realised Jones is toxic. The mere mention of his name on any paper is going to get it scrutinised. Fortunately 5 minutes scrutiny of this laughable effort is enough to see the appallingly poor science.
At this point in time all science is toxic and needs extra scrutiny as too many useful idiots have infiltrated the erstwhile scientific institutions. Not the first time in history. Academia needs a giant purge. This purge will come when the Western standard of living is re-adjusted.
Wait till they include current reality.
http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/arctic-cold-outbreak-november-locked-20141110
““There really hasn’t been a pause in global warming,” Robeson said. “There’s been a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming.””
Hahaha, that’s classic; I’ll have to remember that one!
Record setting Antarctic Southern Ocean sea ice levels anyone???
I had to double take on that one as well. Presumably, if there’s no pause in Winter warming, meaning winters remain the same i.e cold, then logically, that would imply that there is no Climate Change either. I guess once you’ve shot yourself in foot, the only thing you can do next is shoot the other one.
The bias is so obvious. It could just as well be we had unusual NH winter warming (+PDO?) for many years which has now returned to normal.
But not a pause in Winter Warmer, I hope.
http://www.beeradvocate.com/beer/profile/664/683/
There has been no pause in global warming, but there has been a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming. Hallelujah! We have saved winter/sarc. Someone should teach them simple addition. If global warming has not paused, it must mean that Northern Hemisphere winters are getting colder.
Shrill. Oh, we can’t scare them when there’s no warming, so let’s say that it’s the EXTREEEEEEEEEEEMMMMMZZZZZZZ
JustAnotherPoster
December 9, 2014 at 7:02 am
the Jumps though the hoops on that one…..
“There really hasn’t been a pause in global warming,” Robeson said. “There’s been a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming.”
/////////////////////
But that is predominantly what global warming is all about.
There is not much change in the SH since it is disproportionately dominated (controlled) by ocean that dampens resonse. If global warming is now going into the oceans there will be no significant still less serious global warming this century.
As regards the NH, the night time lows are not quite as low as they have been and Winter comes later and lasts less long with Spring coming sooner. What is there not to like about that (especially with extended growing periods)?
The fact is that daytimes highs are not getting significantly higher. The tropical regions of the planet are not becoming unhabitable.
The Summer of 2003 which is oftened claimed to be the warmest summer in Europe with tens of thousands of deaths was only hot in southern/mid France; it was below average in Spain, Italy, Scandinavia, former Yugoslavia and Greece.
when one analyses what is truly happening to temperatures, it is not a scary story. There can only be two scares to global warming. First sea level rise, but this will not be rapid so plenty of time to adapt. Second, it somehow causes more extreme weather, but there is no evidence that extreme weather is increasing; in fact it appears to be decreasing as one might expect if the poles warm so that the rtemperature differential between the equator and the poles is less.
Climegate tells us about the quality of work and theintegrity of scientists plying their trade at the UEA, so that is probably all one needs to know to cast this study in the bin where it properly belonds.
Sorry, but having my peach blossoms frozen in place for the past two years tells me that winter lasted longer than usual.
The 2003 summer was also for a period unpleasantly hot in northern France and Germany. Weather, not climate. “Trivially true, but essentially meaningless.” (Dr Lindzen).
But you are wrong to point to sea level rise as a “scare”. Levels will continue to rise until the end of the current interglacial. Onset of glaciation will cause sea levels to fall. At that point you are allowed to be scared.
“Average temperatures don’t tell us everything we need to know about climate change,” he said.
Yes. Especially since temperatures haven’t risen in some 18 years. Just how much goalpost-shifting, rules-changing, and excuse-generating does he think they can get away with?
But goalpost-shifting, rules-changing, and excuse-generating are what the really, really, smart – ahem, educated – people do (all for the benefit of the great unwashed, of course)…just ask Dr. Gruber.
The whole ‘climate change’ as a term is based on idea of goalpost-shifting. The climate is not warming enough, so lets claim it is changing /somehow/.
They claim it’s changing somehow/someway/someday/you aren’t looking hard enough/you need to go back to the future/you need to be gruberized to see it/all this goalpost shifting is hard work so just bear with us while we think up something else.
“There really hasn’t been a pause in global warming,” Robeson said. “There’s been a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming.”
From 1881 to 1998 there really hasn’t been an acceleration in global warming. There’s been an acceleration in certain regions of the world.
Rutgers University reports that the globe in 2014 had the highest fall snow extent in 47 years with just over 22 million square kilometers . Things sure seem to be warming up faster? Soon there will be no snow .?
That is warm snow which is caused by global warming, as opposed to cold snow which as Dr Viner said has all disappeared.
But it’s rotten snow. Right?
/sarc
Snow ” As Mark Twain said ‘ the report of my death is an exaggeration’ “
“But Robeson said the observation aligns with theories about climate change, which hold that amplified warming in the Arctic region produces changes in the jet stream, which can result in extended periods of cold weather at some locations in the mid-northern latitudes.
I’d never seen a climate change theory that mentioned southerly winter incursions of Arctic air, at least not until they occured in the last couple of years. An infinitely malleable theory that can give reasons, after the fact, for the bad weather that happened last year but can’t make any useful predictions even for next year.
I am sure many people would have been very grateful for accurate predictions in 2010 of changed weather patterns coming in 2012-13.
Phil C
“There really hasn’t been a pause in global warming,” Robeson said. “There’s been a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming.”
No, there’s been a pause in global warming, which cannot possibly be due solely to a pause in Northern Hemisphere winter warming. If everywhere else has continued to warm then at the very least the northern hemisphere winters must have gotten colder for the global average to remain constant. So they continue to lie.
Actually, according to the GISS data, and the NCDC data, the much colder boreal winters are indeed the reason for an almost flat trend.
There’s only been a rise, then a pause in the physically meaningless global average temperature. We don’t really know what’s happened globally, because we keep using this fantasy metric.
I’m actually quite interested in the real story, which seems to be about the boreal winters. The drastic COOLING trend for large areas of the northern hemisphere, in winter, (which is obvious no matter what data you use), is the opposite of what global warming theory proposed would happen, due to rising greenhouse gases, and an enhanced greenhouse effect.
That it is such a huge drop, so large it brings the global average down, it’s a real story.
Just my opinion, but if this research is funded publicly, it should be freely accessible to the public. No pay walls when using tax money. besides, if this study is really important to the future of Mankind, you would think there would be an intrinsic desire by the authors to disseminate it freely. (That’s the way it is at the dental research facility where I managed mechanical facility support during my university career.)
I’m sure these folks are way more educated than myself, but my intuition is that they are simply sensationalizing anomalies that can’t be positively associated with any single cause. It’s also troubling that satellite data was not also considered where available, as it is less prone to inaccuracy.
Good point. Only yesterday I made the same complaint about a paper by Met Office scientists, incl Stott, which was paywalled in Nature.
Freely-accessible research can be presented in different ways via statistics, and only the correct presentation is acceptable.
Over the 130-year record, cold anomalies increased more than warm anomalies, resulting in an overall narrowing of the range of Earth’s temperatures.
In the past 30 years, however, that pattern reversed, with warm anomalies increasing at a faster rate than cold anomalies. “Earth’s temperature was becoming more homogenous with time,” Robeson said, “but now it’s not.
So global warming can first bring less extreme weather, and then more extreme! Even when for most of the last 30yrs there has been no warming at all!!!
” “There really hasn’t been a pause in global warming,” Robeson said…”
Why do they have to lie? Isn’t that statement a lie?
I believe what is being said that – if we remove these cold temperatures from the average then [wow look at that] the average is warmer. Of course then the average ceases to be global so yes it is still somewhat distant from the truth.
Using their logic, if we remove the warm temperatures, then the earth is cooling.
Not at all; there hasn’t been a pause in global warming, there has been an end to global warming.
Aren’t these “extreme temperature anomalies” what they would normally call “weather?”
Only if they show ‘cooling’. If they show ‘warming’ they are definitively part of climate. Haven’t you learn anything? /sarc
“…that spatial patterns of extreme temperature anomalies — readings well above or below the mean — are warming even faster than the overall average”
I see English is not their first language. Extreme temperature readings can be increasing faster than overall average temperatures, but “temperature anomolies” cannot be warming faster than average any more than “adjectivess” can be warming faster than average
They measured the 5% lowest and 5% highest anomalies in the grid used for Crutem4/HadSST3. They define that as their “extreme” anomalies. The distribution of a population can change markedly without affecting the average of the population. And that is what observe.
I know what they were TRYING to say. What they DID say was ” spatial patterns warmed faster”. I was knocking their ability to write a clear sentence- Patterns cannot warm.
Yes, definitely unfamiliar with how to use English… Note that it says “spatial patterns of extreme… are warming faster”… In that sentence, it is the spatial patterns that are ‘warming’… but how does a pattern have a temperature (that is an intrinsic property of an object…)?
So they have found that airports clip low going excursions (all that tarmac, cement, tons of kerosene being burnt, etc.) since now something over 90% of temperature data are taken at airports… in the 1800’s not so much … 😉
Sounds like a measure of UHI to me.
Sounds like a measure of volcanoes to me. Funny how the most extreme “hotspots” “at the centre of gerbil worming” always seem to manifest on fault lines in the ocean.
I’ve never heard this claim before. I almost found myself repeating it when I realised my only source is ‘some bloke on the Internet said’.
The closest I’d heard to that claim before was that Antarctic heating hotspots are greates over volcanoes. Jo Nova has a couple of good articles on that.
Can you give me a source for your claim?
Thanking you in anticipation.
Why don’t they just go the whole hog and publish another “if you don’t stop producing CO2, aliens will come down from space” paper.
I’m less than convinced by that graphic.
Well it was reported recently that the first alien contacts will be machines, probably models.
Fast forward to 2024. I wonder if they will still be saying the length of the pause at 26 years is too short of a time. At some point they have to get off that kick and face reality.
No problem , the length of time required to support a claim is a product of how well the claim supports AGW.
For example one hot summer is enough because it can be used to support AGW , but 18 years without an significant temperature increase is not because that does not support AGW. Climate ‘science’ is frankly a piece of piss to do , you start with the result you need and you get their by any means possible and dam the facts. ,
Just a thought. Did they even bother to normalize for the changes in geographic location and number of instruments?