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Even China can't jump-start the electric car
264 Comments
November 11, 2014 6:20 am
Since these damn things only go so far on one charge, in the Willy Coyote hinter lands of NE Oregon we would have more vehicles than usual, parked haphazardly along the road out of gas. Or sparks. Or whatever these little toy cars run on. Besides, the occasional transportation of a soon to be delicious dead deer, or live sheep or heifer would be quite impossible unless I cut the roof open.
November 11, 2014 8:03 am
Does this imply we can’t change the laws of physics and chemistry by throwing money at a problem? Does this imply that we can’t make green tech practical and affordable via laws and regulations? Does this imply we can’t create something out of thin air just through wishful thinking?
I believe the real problem is the mindset here. Why are you pointing out all these minor details? Don’t you want this to succeed? Don’t you want a better world for our children?
November 11, 2014 8:03 am
With all this subsidised electricity at charging stations, and extortionate electricity prices at home, its entertaining (but probably impractical) to imagine taking a truckload of batteries to the ‘free’ station every day, charging them up, and then taking them back home to power the house.
November 11, 2014 12:29 pm
Something to consider, the range of modern electric cars is little better than that of the original electric cars .
Meanwhile give the massive tax take on gasoline or petrol , does anyone really think that should the number of electric cars hit high numbers than they will not to hit for a ton of tax to make up for taxes lost on gasoline sales ? Bare in mind that in the UK there has ‘never ‘ been a tax change that effects motorists that has not resulted in a increased tax take , never .
November 11, 2014 1:11 pm
The electric car for the masses died when California started experimenting with a per mile driven tax. After all, why put up with the thing’s limitations if you don’t get a cost reduction?
At the moment electric cars are fashion items for most – not practical, but worn to show political correctness. This, however, is a short term thing and will morph into its own opposite as electric motors drive the limits of vehicle performance – expect the 900 HP super car to combine a gas gussling V8 with an explosive battery pack and electric motors on each wheel. To the envirofreaks now buying subsidized Teslas it will seem much like an SUV on speed -the total absurdity of it all kinda staggers the imagination doesn’t it?
The rather large man (named Cenk?) in this video repeats a favorite false mantra of the innumerate left. They call tax and royalty reductions a “subsidy” – so that when the government reduces its share of total revenue in an oil company from (say) 60% to 50%, they call that 10% reduction a “subsidy”.
Cenk’s hypo is false – a subsidy is when the government actually gives money to a company, like they do every day for wind power, solar power and corn ethanol. Reducing a government’s revenue share from an oil company from highly excessive to moderately excessive is NOT a subsidy.
Simply, the revenue share from oil and gas companies funds many governments around the world. The Canadian oilsands funds not only the Province of Alberta, but most of Canada. By comparison, wind and solar power and corn ethanol require daily government handouts, ultimately financed by consumers, just to keep these companies from going broke.
November 11, 2014 1:24 pm
Electric car works fine for me. I use it in my daily commute. My electric car, Nissan Leaf, has a actual range of about 140 km and it cover 80 to 90 percent of my driving need.
I love to drive it because it is soundless and has good acceleration. The immediate heating on cold winter days are also a bonus.
/Jan
Look, there’s really no need to try to float egregious b.s. here.
Why the heat? Let’s calm down. Naturally, I do not want to drive it empty so my longest journey has been 125 km and then it was about 15 km left.
I have only had it since this summer so I have not experienced winter range yet, but as long as I can use it on my daily commute, 28 km each way, I am satisfied.
/Jan
The heat because the statement of range in terms of how far you can roll it until it won’t roll anymore is highly misleading. Not only do people not drive that way, but it’s especially bad for a lithium ion battery to run it all the way down. Look, I own an EV and like it, but it drives me to distraction to see people make inflated claims about these vehicles.
The immediate heating on cold winter days are also a bonus.
And it will kill your battery , this is the classic time of year when people find out their batteries are not in good condition , because its when you put a high load on them , heating lighting etc , very soon after or on start up at the same time that the batter is less able to deal with it thanks to the reduced temperatures action on the batteries chemical processes. Is there is no reason to consider cars which use only batters will be any different.
And it will kill your battery , this is the classic time of year when people find out their batteries are not in good condition , because its when you put a high load on them , heating lighting etc , very soon after or on start up
You’re right, knr — just happened to me the other week when I needed the front & rear-window defrosters for the first time this season…
Very interesting post. Do you have a link that gives more info about the “safe” load on a battery in cold weather?
If you read my other posts here, you’ll see that I’m an EV owner but not a Kool-Aid drinker about it. Other way around: I am as relentless as I can be about being flatly factual. What you raised is an issue I’ve never considered. It might be because it doesn’t get all that cold here in Seattle, so even in winter I rarely have to put a big load on the battery, i.e., heater along with the engine, for more than 10 minutes at a time.
My EV is small, and it heats up fast, at which point I turn it down to the lowest fan speed and reduce the temp. Not to “hypermile,” but because it’d otherwise be too hot inside. But, no question about it, use of the heater is a range killer anyway. What I didn’t know is that it might also be a battery degrader.
So if you have detailed info about that, I’d really appreciate seeing it. Thanks.
I may have misunderstood you first. I doubt that heating the car from the start shorten the lifetime of batteries on electric cars. I have never seen any information supporting that.
But I agree that heating of the cabin shorten the driving range. However, that is no problem as long as you do not intend to drive a distance close to the cars maximum range.
Just watched one (EV) die on the side of the road tonight. Lights went brown and it pulled over. Don’t know if it was battery failure or some other electronics but it was kinda like watching a battery powered toy car run down and stop. Course lots of folks with Propane, Gasoline, or Diesel make the same mistake of not filling up when they are down to a quarter tank.
November 11, 2014 1:26 pm
As a Nissan Leaf owner for 20 months living under the duress of EU fuel prices, I can tell you this; What I’ve paid spread over the ten year life, the new cost is moot because the savings pay for the car. i.e. the car is effectively free.
Who here has to drive more than 40 miles in a day? As a UK citizen, finding anyone who drives more than that.. I pity them.
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The dweeb in here who reckons buying a cheap skate to run around in instead of driving a Tesla to save money really needs to drive one of these. When he’s old enough to stop using shanks pony. These are Ferrari fast from any speed, instantly, with no spool up time. Can you fit 7 in a Ferrari, plus two weeks shopping?
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People here actually believe oil turns itself into fuel without sitting next to a huge electrical power station. We talk of around 6.5KWH per unit gallon from drilling to car tank. Ignoring the middleman by running a BEV requires no new power stations.
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Another guy spoke of nuclear being safe.. Just half an hour ago the news was on about Fukushima leaking. I can name a good few. Maybe a look in Wiki?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_power_accidents_by_country
Or even more damming. Damage to people.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civilian_radiation_accidents
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The trouble with China. Every city dweller lives in blocks of flats where there is little external charging infrastructure. Electric bikes are everywhere, they carry them indoors at night and plug them in.
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The Tesla in China can now be bought totally tax free, import duty free and are allowed in the big cities without restriction.. The caveat is their nav system which uses Google maps.. Only China’s great firewall filters Google maps so workarounds had to be made.
November 11, 2014 1:48 pm
I am really surprised that China’s plan didn’t follow through. It is really cool though to find out that by having this car, you save so much money. This not only saves our money, but also the amount of oil we use. Now this would hit the stocks hard if everyone had one of these cars, but it would help us so much.
There are electric cars and then there are electric cars, just like gas powered cars. Any statement like ” “It’s cool that these cars can save so much money” is incorrect. When you buy a Tesla Model S, for example, you have paid almost $40,000 for the battery. You will never make that up in gas savings – an equivalent
gas powered vehicle, getting 30 MPG highway, would cost roughly 8.5 cents per mile for fuel, while the Model S would cost roughly 6 cents per mile. But the gas powered car is paying on average 50 cents per gallon road taxes, or 1.6 cents per mile. Electric cars will have to pay those same road taxes and thus their
per mile fuel costs now amounts to 7.6 cents per mile, less than one cent better than a gas powered vehicle. So…. an electric Model S would require its driver to travel 100,000 miles in order to save $1,000
in fuel/road taxes over a gas powered vehicle, roughly $100 per year. It’s true that the gas powered vehicle will require some maintenance that an electric doesn’t require, but oil changes don’t cost that much
and the Tesla Model S requires a regular “updating” and checking the car’s electronics that, like everything Tesla sells, will cost a significant amount. It is not optional.
Reminds me of this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gFGX43vubM.
A 30 mpg car comparable to a Tesla Model S will cost 14 cents a mile for gas, not 8.5 cents. A Tesla Model S will cost 4 cents a mile at the U.S, average electricity rate. Battery degradation minus avoided tranny and exhaust maintenance will add 10 cents a mile to the Tesla’s operating cost, which will bring the two vehicles equal.
???? Our family’s last three cars all passed 100,000 – 120,000 miles with NO exhaust repairs and 50.00 dollars in transmission servicing at 50,000 miles each.
(3 x 150.00 dollars in transmission oil) / 350,000 miles = 0.128 cents/miles transmission “repairs”
And, the Tesla will require the SAME (or more) transmission maintenance costs on its wheels, motors, and drives.
“But they will need a new battery, and you can cost it out and turn it into a per-mile estimate. Fair’s fair.” So when you “cost it out” how many miles do you give it? 20K/yr for 8 years (= $.25/mi. with a $40K Battery) ? Do you take usage into account? 100 miles/day wouldn’t tax Tesla’s battery too much and it would probably last longer but 250/day may send it to an early grave, especially if you fast charge. Battery health is measurable so I see it becoming part of the resale value for EV’s. Do you use the battery replacement cost as a new one at today’s price or what they will be in eight years? How about the inevitable reconditioned and after market batteries? Resale value for an S should be high if all you have to do is ‘replace the battery’ to make it like new 🙂 Interesting how the whole battery swap idea never made it past concept and you don’t hear about it anymore. A Tesla is a car geek’s machine.
Updating? Cost? OTA, zero cost. Updates occur constantly. For the earliest models, conservatively 50 so far, counting minor bug patches and major functional upgrades. Service is run on a non-profit basis, so it is rare to see a bill after a service visit, even with a loaner provided for the duration.
Many owners consider this gratuitous helpfulness a priceless contrast with the gouging grating contacts with all prior makers and dealerships.
So when you “cost it out” how many miles do you give it?
100,000 — which is generous.
Battery health is measurable so I see it becoming part of the resale value for EV’s. Do you use the battery replacement cost as a new one at today’s price or what they will be in eight years?
McKinsey & Co. estimates $200/kWh in 2020. I estimate lower.
How about the inevitable reconditioned and after market batteries?
We’ll see about that. Tesla’s direct sales model allows them to effectively exclude aftermarket batteries, and to charge through the nose for “reconditioned” ones. Wow, imagine that. See? There’s a reason why manufacturers were separated from the rest of the auto industry lo those many years ago. In any case, for the foreseeable future, Tesla batteries will be a specialty item with a single source.
Resale value for an S should be high if all you have to do is ‘replace the battery’ to make it like new
I have a song for you.
Interesting how the whole battery swap idea never made it past concept and you don’t hear about it anymore. A Tesla is a car geek’s machine.
I suspect this is because Tesla knew that savvy owners would dump crappy batteries on the company, or be suspicious of having crappy batteries dumped on them by Tesla. Not to mention the outrageous cost of swapping even good batteries. Anyone who owns an EV laughed at that particular press release. As for geek machine, you forgot to say “rich geek machine.” To put it ever so mildly, I’m skeptical on the salvage value front.
Updating? Cost? OTA, zero cost. Updates occur constantly. For the earliest models, conservatively 50 so far, counting minor bug patches and major functional upgrades. Service is run on a non-profit basis, so it is rare to see a bill after a service visit, even with a loaner provided for the duration.
Many owners consider this gratuitous helpfulness a priceless contrast with the gouging grating contacts with all prior makers and dealerships.
Tell us (after you’ve defined your blanking acronyms) — which flavor Kool-Aid do you prefer?
“How about the inevitable reconditioned and after market batteries?
We’ll see about that. Tesla’s direct sales model allows them to effectively exclude aftermarket batteries, and to charge through the nose for “reconditioned” ones. Wow, imagine that. See? There’s a reason why manufacturers were separated from the rest of the auto industry lo those many years ago. In any case, for the foreseeable future, Tesla batteries will be a specialty item with a single source.”
Most of your replies are conjectures and personal biases but this one is plain wrong. Tesla cannot stop after market anything. Direct sales has nothing to do with it. Battery packs for ALL the EVs are going to be easy pickings. Of course we’ll have to wait 8 years to find out but if your “100,000 mile” guess pans out then most of them will have new batteries under warranty every 4 or 5 years anyway. The model S owners I’ve talked to love them….defects/warts and all. Today I would put Tesla at the low end of the defect free scale but that should be expected for any new-to-the-business vehicle manufacturer. What I find interesting is that the high end buyers seem to accept the glitches with Tesla where they wouldn’t with an established manufacturer. They must be treating them right.
November 11, 2014 8:16 pm
I find the comments about the Tesla S interesting. It’s a luxury not an economy car. You don’t buy one to save money. It has the features, driving satisfaction, and safety of a high end vehicle. In my neck of the woods the ‘fuel’ cost for electricity/mile is 1/3 the equivalent for gasoline….at 20 mpg, around town, in a full sized car…so yes there is some economy but not enough to justify a purchase. A Leaf is an appliance, a Tesla is for people that either have money to waste and think it’s “cool” or like and willing to pay for the ‘extra’ features the Tesla brings over the equivalent ICE car…..smoother, quieter, faster, more responsive, handles better, more usable space, ‘fill up’ convenience and stylish to boot. Diagnostics and software updates (feature additions as well) from Tesla while the car is parked in your garage is something that hasn’t been mentioned but if you’re a car geek or hate to go to the dealer for maintenance it’s a big plus either way. Until battery cost, capacity, and charge time improves the electric car will remain a niche vehicle.
I credit you with the willingness to admit the obvious, that Tesla sells a Rolex on wheels. But I’d point out that fuel cost should include the cost of battery degradation, which for a Tesla is 10 cents to 12 cents a mile, minus avoided oil changes and maintenance of transmission and exhaust systems.
As for styling, I think Tesla makes a reasonably slick car, but so does every other vendor in that price class. More usable space? Nah. Tesla’s back seat is cramped compared to similarly price gas sedans from BMW, Mercedes, Audi, and Jaguar. And that gigantic touch screen? Let’s just say that some people like it and others laugh at it.
Hate to go to a dealer for maintenance? Then don’t get a Tesla.
http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-test/2013-tesla-model-s-drive-unit-iv-the-milling.html
Replacement at EOL, which has not actually occurred to anyone yet, will be at future (much lower) pricing and will leave the owner with future range and function equivalent or superior to what he had when new. So backing that cost into existing miles driven is at least double-counting.
Further, the hypothetical 70% capacity of the old battery now is on the long, slow LiIon decline slope, and leaves it with decades of usefulness in static storage application — and hence value for trade-in.
November 12, 2014 9:44 am
I have quite positive experiences with my electric car, a Nissan Leaf. I measure an average energy usage of 1.4 KWh per 10 km. The energy in that is similar to 0.16 litre/ 10 km, or a mileage of 147 miles /us gallon.
And the car is comfortable too. No engine noise – you hear the wind blows.
/Jan
In any case, I doubt it would matter to you.
What is that? Do you have any evidence that I am not open for new data or arguments?
I have described where I got my data. It’s the cars computer. And you claim that it underestimates the electricity input. I make monthly statistical calculations about driving distance and electricity consumption which I intend to post on a blog soon and I am very interested in learning about any errors in the driving computer.
But as long as it is only a claim without any further directions I cannot take it seriously.
/Jan
China’s Electric Vehicle Policy Not Turning Over
November 6, 2014
By Robert O’Neill
Toward the end of the past decade, China set itself an ambitious goal: to dramatically ramp up its electric vehicle production and surpass the rest of the world’s automobile industries in this important new market. It was a policy intended to play a crucial role in the country’s economic development and long-term energy strategy and in solving some of its important environmental and health problems.
“Examining the Chinese effort to develop an electric vehicle market offers a window into the country’s economics and politics as it confronts these three challenges,” write Henry Lee, senior lecturer in public policy and Jaidah Family Director of the Environment and Natural Resources Program at Harvard Kennedy School, and his coauthors, Sabrina Howell and Adam Heal, both research associates at the Kennedy School, in “Leapfrogging or Stalling Out? Electric Vehicles in China.”
[,,,]
The Chinese government’s goals were to have 500,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2011 (accounting for 5 percent of total vehicle sales) and 5 million on the road by 2020. But, as the authors point out, “in mid-2013, China had only about 40,000 electric vehicles on the road, more than 80 percent of which were in public fleet vehicles, such as taxis and buses.”
[…]
While China’s program has been primarily driven by a desire to build globally competitive electric vehicles, air pollution, especially in the cities, has become a national imperative. Yet, if coal-fired power is used to meet electric vehicle electricity demand, the absence of tail pipe emissions will likely be entirely offset by incremental power generation.
Source: http://www.hks.harvard.edu/news-events/news/articles/electric-vehicle-policy