Winter comes a month early in Kazakhstan and other northern regions

snow-russia-wheat-harvestDavid DuByne writes: Early Snows & Lost Grain Tonnage Central Asia

Ural Mountains (Oct 03), USA Crop losses (Oct 11), Ukraine (Oct 22), Grain fields of Northern Kazakhstan snow and frost. As snows arrive earlier with a cooling phase on Earth, grain harvests and planting will be affected.

This video highlights such events during October 2014 in Central Asia.

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JonoClouds
October 27, 2014 2:30 am

Very interesting video full of new information that I was not aware of.
Heard nothing of the early snows on the MSM.
Thank you.

Jazznick
Reply to  JonoClouds
October 27, 2014 2:36 am

It’s happening all over, see here for regular reports.
http://iceagenow.info/

richard
Reply to  Jazznick
October 27, 2014 3:12 am

Just pulled out all the highlights for an easy read.

Reply to  Jazznick
October 27, 2014 4:06 pm

What I found odd about your linked article is the claim that the early snow reduces corn yields, around here farmers actually wait for the ground to freeze before they harvest and it’s not unusual to see combines working in snow covered fields bringing in the corn. I have no idea about spring wheat, we grow winter wheat here and it’s harvested in late summer. Soybeans are being harvested right now, and with a sense of urgency, the weather is unseasonable nice right now. The Sugar beet harvest is very slow right now, the beets will rot if left in piles before it freezes, so they call only harvest as much as the plant can process.

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  Jazznick
October 27, 2014 5:40 pm

At the end of this last August, it was snowing down to the 6,000 foot elevation in the Swiss Alps.

Light Guy
Reply to  Jazznick
October 27, 2014 6:52 pm

Robert Felix is a whack job fringe nut. Just go and look online and have an open mind.

Richard Barraclough
Reply to  Jazznick
October 27, 2014 7:24 pm

I’m not surprised this wasn’t reported in the world press! The headline “Early snowfall in Kazakhstan” is not going to sell many newspapers in London.
However, if you kept your eye on the Business Section, you might have noticed an oil executive being killed at an airport in Moscow when his plane collided with a snowplough.
And on the sports pages, you could have read about Manchester City suffering from the minus 5 deg C weather when they played in Moscow last week.
As for the comment about snow down to 6000 feet in the Alps at the end of August – well, now at the end of October, guess how deep it is in the French Alps at 7500 feet? Zero, as reported by Meteo Chamonix. Late summer snow is not unusual at that height, but doesn’t last.

Robert B
Reply to  Jazznick
October 27, 2014 9:07 pm

@Paul Jackson. Corm means a cereal crop in the Queens English rather than sweet corn. That might be the misunderstanding.

John
Reply to  JonoClouds
October 27, 2014 9:17 am

There’s nothing new about grain storage problems. Insects, rodents, mold etc. have been “an ongoing problem since the dawn of agriculture.”
Natural drying isn’t always effective so heated drying is frequently used before storage. Storage can also minimize mold etc. by using “chemical and controlled atmosphere storage. Of the two, controlled atmosphere (CA) storage is safer, appears more “environmental” and thus, more desirable.”
Over drying grains produces a shrinkage problem (profit loss).
Its up to the farmer to decide crop planting and rotation to minimize harvesting costs and risks. Weather is a key consideration for planning so the better the projection the better the result for the farmer.
Seed selection (winter hardiness) is also a consideration.
Bottomline: don’t blame crop losses on the weather and vertical growing is absurd when one considers the scale of global production.
Source:
http://www.co2meter.com/blogs/news/6077164-controlled-atmosphere-storage-using-carbon-dioxide

rtj1211
Reply to  JonoClouds
October 27, 2014 12:33 pm

You should look at the Eurasian snow coverage patterns in October across Siberia and Canada – it’s a fine indication of hard winters to come apparently. This year the snow across Eastern Siberia right down to Lake Baikal has come early and the snow covered areas are far, far higher than average. You can usually find pictoral representations of this quite easily through Google searches…….

Jay Hope
Reply to  JonoClouds
October 28, 2014 2:01 am

Yes, thank you so much for this info!

Jimbo
October 27, 2014 2:37 am
October 27, 2014 2:39 am

I have friends in Romania and they also said it was snowing on Sunday and very cold. Certainly a little early for snow.I do remember the snow storm that hit here in the Northeast over the Halloween weekend a few years ago. That one also was much earlier then expected. Since then the winters have turned colder with much more snow.Reminds me of the snows we used to have years ago.

Jimbo
Reply to  foxmuldar
October 27, 2014 3:00 am

foxmuldar,
here is the story reported today.

Early winter blizzard wreaks havoc in Bucharest

Global warming’s grip is as tight as ever in the hottest year evaaaaaah. They will tell you this surely.

Andrew
Reply to  Jimbo
October 27, 2014 5:45 am

They’re ALREADY told us. Just like the old Soviet elections, the Fewfacts meeja have already declared 2014 the Hottest Evah before the event. (As indicated by the huge recovery in Arctic ice, record Antarctic ice, 6C colder Great Lakes than even last year, deep snow in much of Australia in during beach season, deep snow on Mt Rushmore in late summer, a ridiculously cool US summer, rainy European summer, snow in Hawaii, subtropical Istanbul and Dallas buried in snow like Montreal, a US hurricane season that was basically cancelled this year, and all the other signals predicted by the GW models.)

Reply to  foxmuldar
October 27, 2014 8:14 am

foxmuldar, try and keep up, please.
Snow is a thing of the past.
Our children are not going to know what snow is.
Haven’t you read the Guardian and Telegraph headlines?

rtj1211
Reply to  foxmuldar
October 27, 2014 12:34 pm

There’s been snow in Switzerland down to 1000m last week, but it’s mostly melted quite a way back up the mountains already. 60 – 80cm fell in the most affected areas……..

R. de Haan
Reply to  foxmuldar
October 28, 2014 11:55 am

Gabavo, 35 hours continuous snowfall causing black outs: http://iceagenow.info/2014/10/gabrovo-continuous-snowfall-35-hours/

Mardler
October 27, 2014 2:44 am

Not happening in the UK where temps remain high at 18-20C today.

ldd
Reply to  Mardler
October 27, 2014 5:48 am

Here in Canada, our coastal provinces tend to have more moderate temps year round, compared to the interior of ROC. Here in Ont we’re getting a 16-17C day tomorrow. That’s the weather for ya, always changing.

ldd
Reply to  Mardler
October 27, 2014 6:53 am

Ops, one correction Mardler, revised weather for tomorrow, 20C and sunny – el bonus!

Gary
Reply to  Mardler
October 27, 2014 11:55 am

I live in north central Arkansas (fairly close to the center of America, but still considered the “South”) and we had a very mild Summer, enough so that everybody noticed and talked about it all season. After a bit of a cool snap in very late Summer, we’re now enjoying a marvelous autumn. The temps would probably be considered “warm” for this time of year, though certainly not out of the ordinary. We’ve all been loving it, enjoying it. Praying we don’t get a repeat of last winter. One really harsh winter can make people really appreciate some warmth. Take away last year’s winter and I’d gladly accept my local clime over any other on earth. I know we had 10-15 years of warmer weather in the past (in my clime) but it really does seem like we’ve reached a tipping point and the “hot” is in decline. I am old enough to accept the changes in temps and weather. It’s been cycling for all my life. Cheers!

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  Mardler
October 27, 2014 1:31 pm

Mardler, where did you get that BS from? Yes, the papers were predicting that, but in actuality – http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/teachers/weather-data-uk-archive-show?ts=1414418400 – at 1400 today only a smattering of stations were at 18C and the mean was much lower.
I don’t deny it’s been a mild day, but not overly warm. Yet another case of exaggeration by MSM.
Rich.

Reply to  Mardler
October 29, 2014 5:45 am

Could please explain the contradiction in that sentence, HIGH and 18-20C.

Ex-expat Colin
October 27, 2014 2:49 am

No worry…our new Environment Secretary Elizabeth Truss in UK has got it covered. Snow should deal with it or likely us!

MikeB
Reply to  Ex-expat Colin
October 27, 2014 3:19 am

Yep, she certainly takes that interviewer Andrew Neil apart. She is just the sort of informed political appointee that we need to guide our energy future /sarc off.

Ex-expat Colin
Reply to  MikeB
October 27, 2014 3:35 am

Further to that, there is an eye watering piece below (D. Telegraph) that informs us of the con run by the wind turbine goons. BWEA claimed that electricity from wind turbines ‘displaces’ 860 grams of carbon dioxide emission for every kilowatt hour of electricity generated.
The UK ASA has forced them to halve that…..eh?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/energy/windpower/3867232/Promoters-overstated-the-environmental-benefit-of-wind-farms.html

Ex-expat Colin
Reply to  MikeB
October 27, 2014 3:39 am

2008…oh sh*t- sorry

DavidR
Reply to  MikeB
October 28, 2014 3:21 am

Three times Andrew Neil said there has been “no global warming for 18 years”. He also said that “all scientists agree about that”.
That’s patently false. The only main global data set that shows no warming over 18 years (past 216 months) is the RSS satellite set, which is flat. The four others, including the UAH satellite set, all show warming.
According to UAH there has been a further +0.18C warming since 1998. GISS says +0.15C; NCDC says +0.12C and HadCRUT says +0.13C. This is easy to check and the UK Environment Secretary should have been able to contest Neil’s false assertion instead of waffling.

George Tetley
Reply to  Ex-expat Colin
October 27, 2014 3:51 am

And this is the best the British can do ? I have a grandson of 6 years that along side this idiot has an IQ of 15,000 The only thing missing is in her name it should be TRUSSED-UP

Agnostic
Reply to  Ex-expat Colin
October 27, 2014 5:28 am

Actually, I think she did very well. That’s a pretty tight line she had to walk there under some tough but fair questions from Andrew Neil. I liked that she is allowing for possible emergence of new technology and down played reliance on wind. I still question the necessity or wisdom of investing or subsidizing solar, but was pleased to hear that solar is no longer being favoured on agricultural land – that at least makes good sense.
She was very careful not to contradict the scientific advice she has been given, and she used the word “adapt” a number of times. She pointed out that voters want to know that stuff is being done to make sure that extremes of weather (I don’t agree that weather has become more ‘erratic’) can be coped with by infrastructure – regardless of the cause. I certainly agree with that.
I don’t think she ‘took apart’ the interviewer, but she handled it as well as you could expect.

Reply to  Agnostic
October 27, 2014 6:16 am

Agnostic:
The smooth-faced Cameron likes her type. But see now what that Paterson is about. You can’t talk it away. Cameron now has to wriggle for his political life.

Gerry, England
Reply to  Agnostic
October 27, 2014 7:06 am

For the non-UK readers, the previous minister Owen Patterson was sacked in sacrifice to the green blob and because he was far too competent. He understood that the Environment Agency was responsible for the flooding in the south-west earlier this year, urged on by EU policy. Having been agriculture minister in Northern Ireland earlier, he is probably the only minister to fully understand how the EU works as demonstrated during the horsemeat scandal when he had to point out to the opposition member that the UK was not permitted to do the things she wanted doing as it was not permitted by the EU. It also gave our PM – Call Me Dave – the chance to put a female in the cabinet to replace one who had to resign – eventually – for stealing taxpayers’ money.

Reply to  Agnostic
October 27, 2014 8:18 am

Telling the truth is hard.

petermue
Reply to  Ex-expat Colin
October 27, 2014 7:01 am

… we have to adapt wheather patterns…
Can it become more stupid?

Mick
Reply to  petermue
October 27, 2014 12:31 pm

Yah they move to California to get away from rain and cold….then complain about it being drier than usual

Gary
Reply to  Ex-expat Colin
October 27, 2014 12:12 pm

Why doesn’t anybody call these people on their terminology? A few seconds in and she’s talking about “carbon” emissions. Is this woman not even aware of the fundamental difference between an element and a molecule? Why don’t people embarrass these talking heads? I learned the difference in grade school. Are they really seeking to reduce carbon emissions? Or CO2 emissions? These people are clueless and just asking to be taken down by a 7th grader. All this woman knows is policy, tax monies and lobbying. Indeed, if she even knows anything about that. She’s just a suit bucking for a check, parroting what she is told. (cheque, sorry)

Jimbo
October 27, 2014 2:55 am

Here is a link for the snow and crops in the Ural mountains.

9 October, 2014
Russian Wheat Crop Estimate Lowered by Ikar to 58.5 Million Tons
Snow and rain will prevent farmers from collecting their crops in some Ural Mountain regions

A sure sign of declining fall snow in the Northern Hemisphere. Get ready for less winter snow say the climate scientists. LOL.

richard
October 27, 2014 3:09 am

Cold and snow news worldwide from October from 1st – 27th. Remember that cold is now a sign of global warming.
Turkey – 230 sheep fall from a cliff due to snow and fog – 100 sheep still lost.-
Greece – Sheep trapped in snow
Up to 80cm of snow this week in Switzerland
Bulgaria – Heavy snowfall leaves 50 villages without power
Romania – Snow up to 10 centimeters
Kazakhstan – Harvesting under 20 cm of snow and minus 10 degrees C
Snow causes chaos in western Austria
Sweden braces for snow
Heavy early snowfall in North America and Siberia may portend brutal winter for U.S. and Europe
Heavy AUTUMN snow blankets Mohe City
Dramatic temperature drops in northern China
Glaciers on K-2, the 2nd highest peak on Earth, are growing
Heavy snowfall causes panic in Yekaterinenburg
Siberian snow cover way ahead of schedule – Near record pace
Nepal death toll now 43 and rising -“Cold so severe it froze your eyelids.”
Snowfall headed for Moscow this weekend
“Freak” Nepal blizzards and avalanches kill at least 29, including hikers, yak herders and guides
Winter storm warning for Clyde River
Heavy snow in Kyrgyzstan – Four people frozen to death
Snowfall warning for Northwest Territories
Rare snow in the Urals hits crop production
Kansas – Earliest frost on record – Growing season now third shortest on record
Winter storm for Fairbanks
Winter Arrives Early in Alaska, says meteorologist
Snow and cold endanger harvest in Kyrgyzstan and Mid-Ural
Autumn snow hampers traffic on the Ural
Snowfall warnings for much of northern Manitoba
Peoria – 2nd earliest snowfall on record
2nd earliest snowfall on record in Rockford, Illinois
Chicago – Third earliest snowfall on record
Earliest snowfall ever on record in Eau Claire
Heavy snow comes to northwestern Ontario
130 year record low in Vladivostok
Florida 20 degrees below normal by Sunday
Harsh winter cut Michigan wine grape crop in half
Winter has arrived at Holuhraun
Snowfall warnings for Nunavut- October 1st

noaaprogrammer
Reply to  richard
October 27, 2014 6:03 pm

How many of the above deaths, injuries, and financial losses could have been averted had climatologists and the MSM embraced a scientific view of current climate trends rather than the political view that human CO2 emissions were heating the globe and melting ice and snow?
They owe mankind not only for squandered tax monies, but for failing to advise for the effects of possible global cooling.

Jimbo
October 27, 2014 3:11 am

The Great Lakes region continues to be the victim of unrelenting heatwaves caused by global warming. Water levels up, late ice this past spring, and now this. The models predicted it!

AccuWeather – 27 October, 2014
Great Lakes Face Cold, Snowy Halloween; Warmth in West
Bone-chilling air, rain and even some snow will impact the Great Lakes and Northeast this Halloween, while warmth prevails in the Southwest.
…A strong area of high pressure moving down from Canada will bring a sharp drop in temperatures by the end of next week….

Jimbo
October 27, 2014 3:27 am

Glaciers in retreat?

Zombie Glacier Surprises Scientists [Iceland]
The higher altitude portion of the glacier has now detached from its rotting base, the researchers discovered — and sprung back to life. The upper portion has resumed a forward advance that, between 1990 and 2004, had been in reverse….
…..It’s possible that other mountain glaciers are behaving in similar ways, according to Phillips, but more research is needed. If that turns out to be the case, then it could be easy to look at a series of satellite pictures or other glacial measurements and mistakenly think that a glacier is wasting away, when its higher-altitude reaches are actually still active and growing……
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/zombie-glacier-surprises-scientists-18209

M Courtney
October 27, 2014 3:28 am

But according to the Guardian this is what we expect from Global Warming.
global-warming-has-doubled-risk-harsh-winters-eurasia-research-finds
Of course they were saying the opposite 18 months ago.
And the curious thing is those commenters who appear on both threads and have no problem endorsing both, unquestioningly.

Amatør1
Reply to  M Courtney
October 27, 2014 3:37 am

And the curious thing is those commenters who appear on both threads and have no problem endorsing both, unquestioningly.

Ref. DoublethinkThe power to hold two completely contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accept both of them.

Jimbo
Reply to  Amatør1
October 27, 2014 3:56 am

M Courtney, the Guardian is confused. All positions back their claims of global warming. Here is George Monbiot at work over the years.

Guardian – 15 February, 2005
George Monbiot
It is now mid-February, and already I have sown 11 species of vegetable. I know, though the seed packets tell me otherwise, that they will flourish. Everything in this country – daffodils, primroses, almond trees, bumblebees, nesting birds – is a month ahead of schedule. And it feels wonderful. Winter is no longer the great grey longing of my childhood. The freezes this country suffered in 1982 and 1963 are, unless the Gulf Stream stops, unlikely to recur. Our summers will be long and warm. Across most of the upper northern hemisphere, climate change, so far, has been kind to us.
==============
Guardian – 6 January 2010
Leo Hickman & George Monbiot
Britain’s cold snap does not prove climate science wrong
Climate sceptics are failing to understand the most basic meteorology – that weather is not the same as climate, and single events are not the same as trends
…Now we are being asked to commit ourselves to the wilful stupidity of extrapolating a long-term trend from a single event….
==============
Guardian – 20 December 2010
George Monbiot
That snow outside is what global warming looks like
Unusually cold winters may make you think scientists have got it all wrong. But the data reveal a chilling truth

Why can’t Monbiot come out of the closet and state clearly that he is confused?

M Courtney
Reply to  Amatør1
October 27, 2014 4:05 am

Jimbo, I am aware of the weakness of the Guardian’s environment section. Indeed, I just put a comment there that concluded, “Any theory that can be adapted to predict anything happening anywhere at anytime is of no practical use. It is Junk Science.”.
I also linked to the previous article and asked those commenters how they reconciled their two positions.
But unfortunately, it seems my comments have been accidentally deleted.
It must be a computer glitch at the Guardian Towers.

Admad
Reply to  M Courtney
October 27, 2014 5:39 am

I have an entertaining little ditty about dear old G Moonbat…

Alan Robertson
Reply to  M Courtney
October 27, 2014 7:33 am

That same story was carried by Bloomberg;
. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-26/arctic-ice-melt-seen-doubling-risk-of-harsh-winter-in-eu.html
The stunning rationalizations within the Nat. Geo. piece would be vilified by honest reporters and publishers, but instead, are amplified and expanded by the Bloomberg crew.

Admin
October 27, 2014 3:41 am

This is why I moved back to Australia with my family, from the UK – latitude 25 degrees south, with the option of if all else fails walking another 10 degrees closer to the equator.
Get out of the frozen North while you can – when the world catches on to what is happening, the rush for the exit will force warm countries like Australia to shut the gates to new arrivals.

Chris @ Urangan.
Reply to  Eric Worrall
October 27, 2014 4:14 am

I wouldn’t have made that posting. Next thing there will be parking meters along the esplanade.

October 27, 2014 4:30 am

Snow flattened near-ripe grain in Central Alberta on September 8. So it is.

Rob
October 27, 2014 4:38 am

Saw 14 degrees F even in Moscow.
With all the Economic sanctions, Russia
had better hope they have enough energy for a brutal winter.

Robert W Turner
Reply to  Rob
October 27, 2014 7:52 am

Russia has many times more energy than it needs. It’s the EU that had better hope Russia keeps their surplus flowing west.

Zeke
Reply to  Rob
October 27, 2014 3:30 pm

Apparently what Russia is doing is making sure they have enough food.

Zeke
Reply to  Zeke
October 27, 2014 3:37 pm

ATTN: this was scrubbed within hours of publication
“Russian media has confirmed that Russian “humanitarian convoys” are robbing and removing Ukrainian enterprises located in a territory controlled by Russian-backed terrorists supported by Russian troops, as well as taking Ukrainian specialists with them.
Vesti.ru reported on the launch of a private company, Luhansk Machinostroitel, as a new entity for the Luhansk Machine Building plant, newly located in the settlement of Cheboksary in Chuvashiya, Russia. 23 people and their families were taken out from the combat zone, along with machines and equipment so as to continue work in the new location.” http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/29/ukraine-under-invasion-looting-east-and-dithering-west/

David
October 27, 2014 4:38 am
GregK
October 27, 2014 5:24 am

Current warning for Bor, Eastern Serbia………………..hmmnnn
Severe Weather Alerts – Bor, Bor
Yellow Warning for Extreme Low Temperature
Yellow Warning for Extreme Low Temperature in effect from Tuesday, 12:00 AM CET until Tuesday, 11:59 PM CET. Source: Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
Frost – Minimum temperature lower than 0°CIMPACT: Unfavourable conditions for chronically sick, people under therapy and medical control or meteoropaths. Possible big damage to agriculture– vegetable, vineyards and fruit are especially vulnerable. For agricultural production lakes of cold air are particularly dangerous , especially if this weather situation takes several consecutive days.

Alan Robertson
October 27, 2014 5:34 am

Oh, but it’s just weather. Warmer air holds more moisture so global warming causes more snow.
/sarc (although most of us have heard that rationalization from the climate fearosphere)
The sea ice data page shows a good comparison satellite pic of NH snow cover vs 2007.

The other Ren
October 27, 2014 5:37 am

Just one word for all the damaged crops: ethanol. I foresee a vast new ethanol based economy that will heat our homes, propel our cars and what’s left over- ravage our livers.

Reply to  The other Ren
October 27, 2014 9:06 am

Now I just have to smile. Ravaged livers!
The hootch does not stop at livers but the gray matter, too, gets pickled. And the world turns.

Gary Pearse
October 27, 2014 6:28 am

I’m afraid with unseasonal cold in the NH and the SH, we have to rethink this hottest year business. I actually predicted unseasonal cold was likely in southern Australia – no big feat with Antarctic ice having almost 2Msqkm greater ice extent than ‘normal’ at the maximum this year. South Africa should be cooler too.

Richard Barraclough
Reply to  Gary Pearse
October 27, 2014 2:00 pm

Not likely, for South Africa, at least. The sea ice to the south of South Africa is pretty close to its long-term median extent, and in any case is about 2000 km away. Meanwhile, the sea water around southern Africa is warmer than normal, and indeed, the early part of the summer has been on the warm side across most of the Highveld

October 27, 2014 6:38 am

Our poor, dumb, sock-puppet of a Poohtus has pulled out all the stops in his climate alarmist campaign these past few months, with the intention of getting out the gullible vote. And now this-…record cold and early winter. Give up, Poohtus.

Reply to  mpainter
October 27, 2014 9:06 pm

Jeb Bush gets the Hoover Institution nod, cap & trade, he’ll get ‘er done.

October 27, 2014 6:41 am

A remote relative of mine used to grow various sorts of grain on a little island in the North Sea. This island, called Pellworm, is a very rainy place. Back in the 70s, he got himself a grain drying system, a major investment, but evidently he felt it was worth it – as far as I can tell, the farm was well run and economically successful. I’m wondering whether any commercial grain drying systems are powerful enough to salvage the grain harvested in the snow.

richard
Reply to  Michael Palmer
October 27, 2014 7:19 am

my father always found it a fine line as to how dry he made his corn, didn’t want to make it to dry as you loose weight – less money.

Reply to  Michael Palmer
October 27, 2014 10:21 am

Grain driers are pretty much standard equipment in the US. The moisture content of the grain is one of the factors in its sale price.

Reply to  Tom Bri
October 27, 2014 3:08 pm

Yes, but are they powerful enough to deal with the melting snow? How much snow/water remains after the grain has passed through the harvester?

Reply to  Michael Palmer
October 27, 2014 4:32 pm

My suspicion is that combines are adjusted to capture seeds of a certain size, so most snow or ice is ejected with either the straw or the chaft and really doesn’t have a big effect on harvested grain. I wouldn’t be surprised if the machinery clogs wouldn’t be more of a factor than grain moisture.

Reply to  Paul Jackson
October 27, 2014 5:06 pm

Good points.

October 27, 2014 7:03 am

For forecasts of the timing and extent of the coming cooling based on the natural 1000 and 60 year quasi-periodicities which are very obvious in the temperature data and using the 10Be and neutron count data as the best proxy for solar ‘activity” see
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com
Here are the conclusions of the latest post.
“In earlier posts on this site http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com at 4/02/13 and 1/22/13
I have combined the PDO, ,Millennial cycle and neutron trends to estimate the timing and extent of the coming cooling in both the Northern Hemisphere and Globally.
Here are the conclusions of those posts.
1/22/13 NH Forecast
1) The millennial peak is sharp – perhaps 18 years +/-. We have now had 16 years since 1997 with no net warming – and so might expect a sharp drop in a year or two – 2014/16 – with a net cooling by 2035 of about 0.35.Within that time frame however there could well be some exceptional years with NH temperatures +/- 0.25 degrees colder than that.
2) The cooling gradient might be fairly steep down to the Oort minimum equivalent which would occur about 2100. (about 1100 on Fig 5) ( Fig 3 here) with a total cooling in 2100 from the present estimated at about 1.2 +/-.
3) From 2100 on through the Wolf and Sporer minima equivalents with intervening highs to the Maunder Minimum equivalent which could occur from about 2600 – 2700 a further net cooling of about 0.7 degrees could occur for a total drop of 1.9 +/- degrees.
4) The time frame for the significant cooling in 2014 – 2016 is strengthened by recent developments already seen in solar activity. With a time lag of about 12 years between the solar driver proxy and climate we should see the effects of the sharp drop in the Ap Index which took place in 2004/5 in 2016-17.
4/02/13Global Forecast
1 Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17
2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22
3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024
4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 – 0.15
5 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 – 0.5
6 General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,
7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of another little ice age.
8 The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast cooling and help maintain crop yields .
9 Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario.”
3.2 2014 Updates and Observations..
3.2.1 Updates
a) NH Forecast- item 4. With regard to timing, closer examination of the Ap Index (Fig13) and Neutron Count (Fig.14) would suggest that the sharpest drop in activity is better placed at 2005/6 with the associated sharp temperature drop now forecast at 2017-18.
b) Global Forecast – item1. Significant temperature drop now forecast for 2017-18.
c) Global Forecast – item 9. Another year of flat Livingston and Penn umbral data suggests that a swift decline into a Maunder Minimum is now very unlikely.
3.2.2. Observations.
a) Solar Cycle 24 peak.
During the last year, Solar cycle 24 developed a second and higher Sunspot peak in February 2014 and activity has declined sharply since then. This decline should be reflected in a rapid increase in the Neutron Count in another 4 or 5 months, and the possible beginning of a more pronounced cooling phase. The sharp decline in solar activity since February may also lead to the non-appearance of the much anticipated El Nino.
b) The Polar Vortex Excursions.
I will quote again from the 2010 forecast:
“There will be a steeper temperature gradient from the tropics to the poles so that violent thunderstorms with associated flooding and tornadoes will be more frequent in the USA. At the same time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South thus local weather in the Northern hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with occasional more northerly heat waves and more southerly unusually cold snaps”
This forecast was spectacularly confirmed by the early 2014 excursions of the Polar Vortex into the United States. Indeed, as I write this in Houston on July 29, 2014 another unusually early Canadian front has just gone through Houston with heavy rains and thunderstorms. This is a harbinger of weather patterns which will become more frequent on a cooling planet. As the excursions occur later in the spring and begin earlier in the fall, the snow cover finally never melts over the NE of the American continent and after a few thousand years full ice age conditions will develop, as suggested by Steve Goddard:”

MarkW
October 27, 2014 8:06 am

I’m fully anticipating next year when the warmists pull out charts showing a drop in wheat production, shouting; I told you global warming was going to reduce food production.

DrTorch
October 27, 2014 8:07 am

So what if ultimately, the CO2 feedback cycle is for cooling? That bit of irony would totally suck! And the warmists would be right for all the wrong reasons. Plus we’d only be making things worse when we tried to stay warm.
So there’s your cheery thought for the day.

DirkH
Reply to  DrTorch
October 27, 2014 9:57 am

DrTorch
October 27, 2014 at 8:07 am
“So what if ultimately, the CO2 feedback cycle is for cooling? That bit of irony would totally suck! And the warmists would be right for all the wrong reasons.”
That was the theory of the climate scientists from ca. 1975 to 1988 (as their extrapolations always have a lag to the climate of a decade).

DirkH
October 27, 2014 9:55 am

Global Warming has melted the ice caps which makes the cold seek a new home, ravaging humanity. This has been proven by climate science computer models; doubting it is non-violent extremism and therefore punishable under proposed laws in the UK and the EU (google Theresa May).
Or in other words : When you’re not demented you better pretend to be or it’s the locker for you!

John F. Hultquist
October 27, 2014 10:30 am

Some have said timing is everything.
In Washington State (USA), at about the same latitude as Kazakhstan, harvesting of wheat is a mid-summer activity. In mid-September planting for the next crop is completed. By the end of October the masters of the soil have gone to Arizona or New Mexico for a relaxing winter.
Tree crops (think apples) are in, corn in, potatoes in, carrots in. Wine grapes are now fermenting.
So, is this Kazakhstan late harvest a normal thing? That is, is the growing season with October harvest a function of the normal weather? Is this 2014 season slowed by natural causes?
Another possibility is that there are not sufficient machines to get the crop harvested in a more timely manner.

Duster
October 27, 2014 10:49 am

OT, perhaps. The Ural Mountains are really the boundary between western Asia and Europe north of the Caucasus. They only look like they are in central Asia. The Yamal Peninsula, notorious for its tree rings, is located in western Asia immediately east of the geographic demarcation between Europe and Asia at the northern end of the Urals.

October 27, 2014 11:36 am

Kazakhstan isn’t that northerly either. Between the same latitudes as northern England to central Spain.
Wheat prices are not far off 5 year lows.
http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/wheat.aspx?timeframe=10y
Wheat production 2014/15 predicted to be an all time record.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-25/world-wheat-production-forecast-raised-on-eu-to-ukraine.html

Martin
October 27, 2014 11:48 am

“As snows arrive earlier with a cooling phase on Earth”
Meanwhile down here in the Southern Hemisphere we’re having record breaking heat…
Southern Queensland has sweltered through some of the hottest weather ever recorded in October.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/october-temperature-records-fall-as-southern-queensland-bakes-through-heat-wave/170208

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Martin
October 27, 2014 1:09 pm

Many of the El Nino-like conditions are here now, both in Australia and in the US South-west desert.
This is despite the fact that officially El Nino has not yet happened.

October 27, 2014 1:19 pm

Dear author: Thankyou for great work, very intereting.
A Tip, i hope you understand where im going:
Chryospheres graphs for “the nine seas”: Both the black and the red graphs are in fact this year.
The black is absolute vallues. The red is anomaly this year in comparison with the reference period.
It means that anomalies in the summertime also this year where below normal in many places.
But that will change 😉
I hope you know why im writing this to you.
K.R. Frank Lansner

herkimer
October 27, 2014 4:57 pm

There is no doubt that winters have been getting colder in many parts of the world for some 17 years now . According to NOAA data, the trend of GLOBAL LAND and OCEAN WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOAMLIES has been declining since 1998 at 0.6 C /decade. So has the WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES for the NORTHERN HEMISPHERE declined at 0.11C /decade since 1998. The trend of WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOAMLIES for CONTIGUOUS US declined at 1.79 F/decade since 1998 . The WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES declined from an average of + 2.6 C during 1998-2000 to -0.4C by 2014 winter , a cooling of average winter temperature anomalies of almost 3 degrees. I see this pattern continuing until 2035/2045 as the oceans enter their cool phase as they did 1880-1910 and again 1945-1975. The pattern of global and regional cooling starts during the winter first, then spring and fall and finally the summer. We are already seeing winter, spring and fall cooling in North America.
This coming winter will be cold in North America but also Asia and Europe this time.
1. Reply

herkimer
October 27, 2014 5:02 pm

. The WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES declined from an average of + 2.6 C during 1998-1990 to -0.4C by 2014 winter , a cooling of average winter temperature anomalies of almost 3 degrees. This refers to the Canadian National winter temperature anomalies . Canadian winter temperature departures from 1961-1990 averages have been declining since 1998.
1. Reply

Gary Pearse
Reply to  herkimer
October 27, 2014 5:20 pm

Something larger is scaring the climate establishment about the NH temperatures and they are neatly covering it up with a 35 year trendline that shows 0.325+C/decade trend in the arctic (60N-82.5N) graph on the sea ice page. The Arctic actually is following the global with a scary decline since 2007 that is steeper than the cooling trend in the Antarctic:
ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/graphics/tlt/plots/rss_ts_channel_tlt_northern%20polar_land_and_sea_v03_3.png
The panic in the US and EU is to get a ‘Carbon’ deal signed asap so that they can take ‘measures’ and then show that their measures are working. They will fail, of course, but the decline in temps will be forthcoming almost immediately. I wonder if that weird cyclonic storm that cleared arctic ice out in 2007 and 2012 are actual harbingers of the turnaround. I recall noting that after the minimum in 2007, the temperature climb going into winter was the steepest rise in years.

TRG
October 27, 2014 7:51 pm

I found the video to be highly exaggerated. Apparently, in Kazakhstan they have not heard about using driers to lower the moisture content of grain which has been harvested and placed in storage.

RoHa
October 27, 2014 9:31 pm

Kazakhstan is a long way north of here, but it isn’t all that far north in the Northern Hemisphere.
And here we are having summer temperatures in Spring, so Global Warming (TM) must be true.

Darwin Wyatt
October 27, 2014 11:54 pm

Maybe it’s just an Ergot hallucination?

Keith
October 28, 2014 11:58 am

This last August on a cruise to Alaska, I queried a Park Naturalist employed by the State, ‘If global warming is real…why are the glaciers growing?’ Her answer was one that made me realize the extent to which the Kool-Aid is being drank in even the most frozen of countries. She bald faced replied without a hint of shame that the glaciers of Alaska are growing because of…….GLOBAL WARMING. You see it appears that when the climate is warmer, it snows more at higher elevations which in turn causes the glaciers to grow. You have to understand this did not sway me because I’m stubborn. My next question ‘What has happened to the supposed rise of ocean levels around the world, because it is not happening?’ Her response was just as cool as the last. You see because of the shrinking ice caps around the world, the land is rebounded because the load of the ice is lighter. I hate to compare the thought processes of modern day rank and file government employees to that of good German people before the last war, but to swallow such inane propaganda and regurgitate such nonsense without realizing the harm they do is mind boggling.

Reply to  Keith
October 28, 2014 3:08 pm

Ice mass loss is occuring at an accelerated rate in Greenland, Antarctica and globally from inland glaciers. Arctic sea ice is also falling at an accelerated rate. The exception to this ice loss is Antarctic sea ice which has been growing despite the warming Southern Ocean. This is due to local factors unique to the area.
If the Southern Ocean is warming, why is Antarctic sea ice increasing? There are several contributing factors. The hole in the ozone layer above the South Pole strengthens cyclonic winds that circle the Antarctic continent. The wind pushes sea ice around, creating areas of open water known as polynyas. More polynyas leads to increased sea ice production. Another contributor is changes in ocean circulation which cause less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/melting-ice-global-warming-intermediate.htm
The claim sea level isn’t rising is based on blatantly doctored graphs and conspiracy theories that are contradicted by empirical observational data. In fact, not only is global mean sea level data rising, but the rise is accelerating.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/sea-level-not-rising-intermediate.htm

Keith
Reply to  kevinschmidtojai
October 29, 2014 3:01 pm

Actually the pacific ocean, the largest body of water on the planet is cooling at a rate so quickly and deep, it’s the reason why the salmon have been returning in historic record numbers the last 3 years. The Canadian Government unable to explain the reason for the masses of returning fish off both coasts, held a royal commission to look at the situation. The answer they came up with was exactly the same as Australian scientists reported (and was discussed on this site) several years ago. The great cooling trend of the waters off British Columbia, was very sudden and deep. The aforementioned Australians theorized it may be the turning point leading to a mini ice age. And Kevin, talking about the Kool-Aid, the arctic ice is returning heavier winter over winter, the Greenland ice mass is not decreasing, Antarctica (which contains 90% of the ice on the planet) is growing at a rate never seen before, and is now larger than ever before. You may serve up all the skeptical science from questionable websites you want, but I suggest you look out the window this winter and see the facts for yourself.

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  kevinschmidtojai
October 29, 2014 4:31 pm

And there is no measured historical or modern evidence to support any of those statements about the Antarctic winds, Antarctic air temperatures, southern ocean temperatures, Antarctic ice loss, nor polynya growth. Guesses? Yes. Statements? Yes. But no measured evidence. Corrected and adjusted GRACE satellite approximations? Yes, but those are not calibrated against the 265 foot rise in Greenland ice cap thickness since 1945.
And, by the way, actual measured Antarctic continental air temperatures have been slowly but steadily going down the past 30 years. Antarctic sea ice has been steadily increasing since 1992.
This past June, at a new record high sea ice area anomaly of 2.05 million square kilometers, just the “excess” Antarctic sea ice area covered the same area as the entire Greenland ice cap (nominally 2.16 million square kilometers.)

Reply to  kevinschmidtojai
October 31, 2014 3:48 pm

Kevin:
See NOAA Mean Sea Level trends for the tidal gauges on the west coast. These [show] no sea level rise for the last thirty [year]s. Is the NOAA one of the conspiracy theorists?

October 28, 2014 2:58 pm

April 2014 tied with 2010 as HOTTEST on record!
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/4

Reply to  kevinschmidtojai
October 31, 2014 3:50 pm

See UAH, RSS satellite temperatures for better data.

Reply to  kevinschmidtojai
October 31, 2014 3:52 pm

See UAH, RSS satellite temperatures for more reliable data.

Reply to  kevinschmidtojai
October 31, 2014 3:55 pm

See UAH,RSS satellite temperatures for more reliable data.

October 28, 2014 3:12 pm

the period from December 2013 to February 2014 was the 8th warmest on record globally
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/a-cold-u.s.-winter-for-sure-but-8th-warmest-globally-17196

Reply to  kevinschmidtojai
October 31, 2014 3:59 pm

See UAH, RSS satellite records for more reliable temperature data.

October 29, 2014 8:51 am

here in Holland we expect the warmest 1 st November ever…

Reply to  Martin van Etten
October 31, 2014 4:04 pm

EU has abandoned carbon goals. Latest agreement only pays lip service to carbon reduction.

Seppo
October 29, 2014 10:03 am

Highest ever measured late October temperatures a few days ago in Finland…

Reply to  Seppo
October 31, 2014 4:07 pm

The Green movement in Germany is a warm corpse as Government plans coal-fired power generation plants to replace nuclear. Man on the street universally pooh-bah global warming.

Richard Barraclough
October 31, 2014 4:56 am

If the temperature reaches 19.5 C (67 F) anywhere in the UK today (which it almost certainly will), then it will be the hottest Halloween Day since such detailed record keeping began in the late 19th century.
And if the warm spell can hang on for another 24 hours, the English monthly record for November could be broken (21.1 C on 5th November 1938). A slightly higher 21.7 C was recorded on the coast of North Wales on 4th November 1946, under the effect of a foehn wind.
I’m presuming these have been converted from the original whole-degree Fahrenheit readings of 70 and 71

Reply to  Richard Barraclough
October 31, 2014 4:11 pm

Ground shifting from under feet of the climate change hysteria as the so-called”pause” heads for nineteen years (see UAH and RSS satellite data).

Keith
Reply to  Richard Barraclough
November 1, 2014 6:03 pm

Records will always be broken, that said, you have a warm spell in England. You all deserve it. Remember last winter in the American mid-west when it was colder than any previous year in recorded history? That cold spell broke some records too. The extent of ice formation and cold temperatures in Antarctica are records too. And the skeptics say all of the extreme cold weather records around the planet in the last few years is because of man made global warming. The glaciers in Alaska have been retreating since 1850. However the glacial footprints as of today cover a far larger area than they did in 1730. Common sense tells us that warming and cooling cycles are out of our control.

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