Allan MacRae says: Thanks to Alberta Jacobs
A Gleissberg Solar Minimum?
475 Comments
August 14, 2014 9:00 pm
Pamela Gray says:
August 14, 2014 at 8:20 pm
Oooo Leif. For many here them’s fightin words!
Regardless of the debate about volcanoes, Owens and Lockwood et al. claim that there was no little ice age [and that it therefore was not due to the Sun], and, strangely enough, SdP claims he subscribe to the Lockwood et al. view and wants him to come here and show us why there was no little ice age.
August 14, 2014 11:39 pm
@Vukcevic
@Ulric
@Kadaka
this is from a paper from William Arnold, written in 1985. Had they not started with the CO2 nonsense at around the same time, I am sure we would ALL have carried on with this, building on it, rather than breaking it down, especially in the light of my latest finding that AGW is exactly 0.000K per annum…….
My comment in [BOLD]
VII. Theory of a Special Order
A positive correlation between the Primary 22-Year Sunspot Number Cycle and the Saturn-Uranus Synodic Cycle can be demonstrated by analysis of Figures 1 and 2. The data suggests that the synods or conjunctions and the oppositions occur during the downside of the Primary 22 Year Sunspot Number Cycle (“negative” alternation) as depicted in Figure 1. The 90°-quadratures of the Saturn Uranus Synodic Cycle occur during the upside (“positive”alternation). The Saturn-Uranus Synodic Cycle appears primarily causal to the Primary 22-Year Sunspot Number Cycle.
Other synodic cycles (probably, the “regular” Jupiter-Saturn) appear to enhance maximums, minimums, turnpoints and nodes. The Jupiter-Saturn Synodic Cycle appears to “alternate” in step with the 11-year alternating interval of the primary sunspot cycle.
A positive correlation between the Secondary 100-Year Sunspot Cycle, the 100-Year Weather Cycle (the Nile Flood Cycle) and Planetary Synodic Cycles can be demonstrated by analysis of Figures 1, 2, 3> 4 and 5. The data suggests that the smoothed cycle and lower number of sunspots at nodes during the 1648-1714, 1783-1829, 1874-1919 and the 19652009 (predicted) periods
[HERE MY FINDINGS ARE THAT SOMEHOW WILLIAM ARNOLD WAS OUT BY 7 years, i.e. THE SWITCH TIME WAS 1972 AND HOPEFULLY! WE WILL SWITCH AGAIN IN 2016]
corresponds with a lower Nile flood (drought) during the same intervals.
Both of these 100-year full-wave sunspot and weather cycles appear to be caused by the Saturn-Uranus Synodic Cycle of planetary conjunctions-oppositions of Figure 2 when oriented to the Galactic-Solar Axis (a line drawn through their respective centers, the galactic center at longitude 266.1314° and 086.1314′).
Significant enhancement of maximums, minimums, timing of turnpoints and nodal periods of both 100-year cycles appears to be caused also by the Jupiter-Uranus Synodic Cycle (Figure 3), the Uranus-Pluto Synodic Cycle (Figure 4) and the Uranus-Neptune Synodic Cycle (Figure 5) when also oriented to the G-S Axis.
Note the commonality of Uranus and its halfway position between the center and the fringe of our Solar-Planetary System to each of these synodic cycles. Perhaps, Uranus’ apparent “sideways” motion (inclination of equator, 98′) as distinct from the other large planets operates as a pushpull “trigger” of current-magnetic flow changes between the sun, its planets, and the galaxy.
VIII. EMF (Electro-Magnetic Force) of a Galactic-Solar-Planetary System Postulated,
see Figure 6
When Saturn and Uranus synod in the sector behind the sun oriented to the galactic center (circa 356° – 86° – 176°) [Ed.Note: 356° was originally published as 350°] and within the solar wind tail pushed behind the sun by the pressure of the galactic wind (Parker and Van Allens’ “cosmic radiation”), the 100-year sunspot activity reaches maximum values, centered round 1750, 1860, 1950 and 2030 predicted (Saturn and Uranus synod again behind the sun, 87 degrees,2032: see Figure 2, bottom data). In the same way the solar wind pushed the earth’s magnetic field into a tail behind the planet, it is postulated by this author that the galactic wind pushes the solar emf field into a tail behind the sun: a mechanical explanation suggests that the planets operate as conductor-inductors and cut more solar force field lines in the elongated space behind the sun, thus inducing enhanced sunspot activity (and electrical activity, Sheeley, 1964). The conclusion for the reduction of sunspot activity is also supported by the data. When these planets synod in the sector in front of the sun oriented to the galactic center (circa 176°-266°-356°) and outside the solar wind tail with its elongated and compressed force field lines, it is found the planet-conductor-inductors run parallel to the field lines and thereby cut less lines, sunspot activity reaches minimum values, centered round 1670, 1800, 1900 and 1990 predicted [IT WAS IN FACT 1995] (Saturn and Uranus synod again in front of the sun, 268 degrees, 1988: see Figure 2, bottom data). The steeper rise to sunspot maximum of each 11-year interval appears caused by the “narrower” zone of the elongated Solar wind tail behind the sun, while the slower slope of the sunspot minimum approach appears caused by the “wider” zone outside. The role of Jupiter (mass, 3X Saturn, Saturn in turn, 6X Uranus) appears to be secondary, magnifying or dampening maximums and minimums as well as altering the exact timing or turnpoints of both the 22-year and 100-year cycles. [APPARENT 90-100 YEAR CYCLE]
Note particularly (see Figure 2, bottom data) the start of the dampening cycle or curved 22-year Sunspot Cycle with the 1783 opposition, Uranus behind the sun and the middle with the 1806 synod and the end with the 1829 opposition, Saturn behind the sun at end; and finally note the predicted dampened period with the 1964 opposition,Uranus behind the sun, the 1988 synod in the middle and the 2009 opposition Saturn behind the sun; note, for variation of effect, the positions of the synods, or centers of the dampening effect, are rotating forward circa 30
degrees. Analysis of the magnified cycle or pointed 22-year Sunspot Cycle periods, 1829-1874 and 1919-1965, center on Saturn and Uranus synods behind the sun, at 1851 and 1942 [Ed. Note: originally published as 1806 and 1897], respectively. The 1600s and early 1700s reflect a period when the rotation of the synods occurred in an extreme dampening configuration whereas the opposite might occur in the next cycle, with the synod of 2032 resembling that
of 1942, behind the sun-nearly opposite the Galactic Center.
Note, the seemingly unusual start of the earliest dampening cycle with the 1648 opposition, Saturn behind the sun and the seemingly unusual double-middle of the 1671 synod at 340° and the 1691 opposition with Uranus behind the sun,and the seemingly unusual end of the cycle with the 1714 synod at 168°; also note, A. E. Douglass and E. W. Maunder demonstrated a positive correlation between this unusually-long dampened cycle of sunspot activity and tree-ring growth, dated 1645-1715 (Stetson, 1937).
In 1950 Slurzberg and Osterheld demonstrated “Lenz’s law is: when a current flowing through a circuit is varying in magnitude, it produces a varying magnetic field which sets up an induced emf (electro-magnetic force) that opposes the current change producing it ….The value of the induced emf in any conductor is proportional to the rate of cutting lines.” Figure 6 is an illustration diagram of the phenomenon.
IX. Philosophical considerations on an Ordered Galactic- Solar-Planetary System
Apparently, cycle variations, whether in magnitude, length, turnpoint, or nodal, occur because the conductor-inductors of the change (the planets) are not always in the same portion of the Solar field at the same time when the vital synods occur; and the strength and direction of the field blown behind the sun by the galactic wind (“cosmic radiation” of Parker and Van Allen, 1975) is constantly varying. Therefore, the expanding-contracting alternating magnetic field is constantly varying as must be the current supplying the Solar field. The sun appears to operate as a solenoid, a device for converting emf energy into mechanical, and vice-versa. Cycle theory will apply to the problem in the same manner sine-wave theory explains all a-c wave technology. The general laws of electronic inductance will account for the 90-degree lag between the sunfaculae and sunspot cycles. The regular 22-year and [APPARENT] 100 [88] year cycles as orchestrated in the”earthly” sphere by forces from the galactic center will seem at first to be quite deterministic. Certainly, the implications of Order on a cosmic scale down to the microcosm, earth, are staggering not only for science but, perhaps,more so for philosophy. The mechanical movement of planetary conductor-inductors in an impersonal emf field stretching from the Galaxy to the Sun to the Earth might determine broad eras of time in which the flow goes one way and then mechanically turns and flows opposite, but it does not take away “free willed” variations within these broader cycles. Indeed, man ought to be able to welcome Cosmic Order on the horizon as the dawning of the Age of Aquarius,the advent of the Music of the Spheres made manifest.
Author: William Arnold, 1985
I suspect he has passed on and has gone to be with the Lord?.
H
August 15, 2014 12:25 am
Why SCR and GCR radiation affects particularly the state of the polar vortex?
“BARREL’s job is to improve our understanding of the mysterious Van Allen belts, two gigantic doughnuts of radiation that surround Earth, which can shrink and swell in response to incoming energy and particles from the sun and sometimes expose satellites to harsh radiation. While in Antarctica, the team launched 20 balloons carrying instruments that sense charged particles that are scattered into the atmosphere from the belts, spiraling down the magnetic fields near the South Pole. Each balloon traveled around the pole for up to three weeks. The team will coordinate the BARREL data with observations from NASA’s two Van Allen Probes to better understand how occurrences in the belts relate to bursts of particles funneling down toward Earth.”
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/nasas-barrel-returns-successful-from-antarctica/#.U-21W1V_sur
August 15, 2014 12:35 am
Leif Svalgaard says: August 14, 2014 at 6:42 pm
The situation is completely symmetric, so no 22-yr cycle results. You make up a false cycle by reversing the sign.
That is factually incorrect and you are well aware of it.
There are two solar hemispheric sunspots counts, not in any single cycle out of the 24 documented, there is a complete symmetricity ( as you claim) between the two hemispheres, but even if it were it would not matter for reasons of the HCS presence, as explained further down.
The facts are:
Even numbered sunspot cycles in the north hemisphere have positive orientated magnetic field i.e. B>0, while the odd cycles have negative orientated magnetic field or B0 followed by 11 years B<0) running simultaneously, one in each hemisphere, but of the opposite sign; however, the open fluxes do not mix and do not cancel out since they are separated by the HCS.
At the 1AU distance, the Earth’s magnetosphere encounters either of these two solar magnetic 22 year cycles, except for the short periods when Earth is transversing the HCS.
Earth therefore encounters two solar signals:
– non-signed 11 year TSI cycles, with a inconsequential variability.
– 22 year magnetic cycle from the either side of the HCS.
The 11 year TSI cycle is not detectable to a degree of significance in the GT data
The 22 year is present to significant degree, in the global and the hemispheric land and ocean temperature data.
Further more it is conclusively shown that:
The 22 year solar magnetic cycle is coincidental to a significant degree with the change in the Earth’s rotation rate. as measured by change in the length of day – LOD
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/01/05/59/16/PDF/LODvsSSN.pdf
Supporters of status quo may dislike the implication, but that will not make it disappear.
Any squabble you might have with the Themis project findings, you are welcome to take up with the NASA and Dr. Phillips, his email as quoted on the NASA’s website is: james.a.phillips (-at-) earthlink.net
..
August 15, 2014 12:40 am
“It is because of the unprecedented high energy and temporal resolution of our energetic particle experiment, RBSPICE, that we now understand that the inner belt electrons are, in fact, always organized in zebra patterns,” said Aleksandr Ukhorskiy of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Laurel, Md., co-investigator on RBSPICE and lead author of the paper. “Furthermore, our modeling clearly identifies Earth’s rotation as the mechanism creating these patterns. It is truly humbling, as a theoretician, to see how quickly new data can change our understanding of physical properties.”
http://vanallenprobes.jhuapl.edu/newscenter/newsArticles/20140319.php
August 15, 2014 12:49 am
WordPress garbled section of the second paragraph, something to do with ‘more than’ & ‘less than’ characters:
It should be (es expressed in words)
Even numbered sunspot cycles in the north hemisphere have positive orientated magnetic field i.e. B more than 0, while the odd cycles have negative orientated magnetic field or B less than 0.
In the south hemisphere situation is reverse.
Implication is clear: there are two 22 year (11 years B more than 0, followed by 11 years B less than 0) running simultaneously, one in each hemisphere, but of the opposite sign; however, the open fluxes do not mix and do not cancel out since they are separated by the HCS.
August 15, 2014 12:56 am
“Beginning with the discovery of a transient third radiation belt just days after the Van Allen Probes launched from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (Fla.) on August 30, 2012, the mission has produced many findings that are altering our knowledge of the belts and how they operate. The spacecraft have revealed a massive particle accelerator in the heart of the belts; proven that electrons in the belt are undergoing strong local acceleration from very low frequency plasma waves, and not from an external force; discovered electric field transients called double layers that may energize the seed particle population that becomes the radiation belt population, provided data that can improve space weather models which can benefit space-based technologies and human spaceflight; and shown that persistent structures exist in the inner belt, which are caused by Earth’s rotation, a mechanism previously thought to be incapable of such an effect.
“All of these fundamental findings are, in very real ways, changing much of what we thought we knew about the radiation belts and plasma physics,” said Barry Mauk of the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Van Allen Probes project scientist.”
http://vanallenprobes.jhuapl.edu/newscenter/newsArticles/20140423.php
August 15, 2014 1:01 am
For sake of clarity I will re-post again (with apology, it would be appreciated if the moderator would kindly delete two of mine most recent comments)
Leif Svalgaard says: August 14, 2014 at 6:42 pm
The situation is completely symmetric, so no 22-yr cycle results. You make up a false cycle by reversing the sign.
That is factually incorrect and you are well aware of it.
There are two solar hemispheric sunspots counts, not in any single cycle out of 24 documented, there is a complete symmetricity ( as you claim) between the two hemisphere, but even if it were it would not matter for reasons of the HCS presence, as explained further down.
The facts are:
Even numbered sunspot cycles in the north hemisphere have positive orientated magnetic field, while the odd cycles have negative orientated magnetic field.
In the south hemisphere situation is reverse.
Implication is clear: there are two 22 year magnetic cycles (11 years of positive B followed by 11 years of negative B), running simultaneously, one in each hemisphere, but of the opposite sign, however the open fluxes do not mix and do not cancel out since they are separated by the HCS.
At 1AU distance, the Earth’s magnetosphere encounters either of these two solar magnetic 22 year cycles, except for the short periods when Earth is transversing the HCS.
Earth therefore encounters two solar signals:
– non-signed 11 year TSI cycles, with a inconsequential variability.
– 22 year magnetic cycle from the either side of the HCS.
The 11 year TSI cycle is not detectable to a degree of significance in the GT data
The 22 year solar magnetic cycle is present in the global and hemispheric land and ocean temperature data.
Further more now it has conclusively shown that:
The 22 year solar magnetic cycle is coincidental to a significant degree with the change in the Earth’s rotation rate. as measured by change in the length of day – LOD
http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/01/05/59/16/PDF/LODvsSSN.pdf
Supporters of status quo may dislike the implication, but that will not make it disappear.
Any squabble you might have with the Themis project findings, you are welcome to take up with the NASA and Dr. Philips email as quoted on the NASA’s website is: james.a.phillips (-at-) earthlink.net
August 15, 2014 1:43 am
Please pay attention to pressure anomalies over the polar circles. The lower stratosphere.
http://pl.tinypic.com/view.php?pic=148py5h&s=8#.U-3H11V_suo
August 15, 2014 3:24 am
Pamela Gray says:
August 14, 2014 at 7:00 pm
Vuk. I quoted your words. Are you saying those were not your words
………………
No Ms Gray, I am not, they are mine and mine alone, even if they weren’t I would be indeed terrified of your onslaught, if I attempted deny it. So, yes I wrote the word ‘CONTRADICT’
If someone as clever, handsome, successful and desperately attractive to a let’s say , not so mature lady, has written a paper and disputes alternative findings, in my little primitive mind it means ‘conflict’ or contradiction in the ideas, if they are mutually exclusive then one finding contradicts the other.
However, if they are not mutually exclusive, there is no contradiction, so we all can go back to our pet preoccupations, here, I noted your recent fascination with volcanic eruptions …. I better stop there.
No doubt, you will insist in your opinion being correct one, and having the last word on the matter (such is a nature of things) and by all means do.
.
August 15, 2014 4:06 am
vuk says:
August 15, 2014 at 12:35 am
22 year magnetic cycle from the either side of the HCS
The sign of the large-scale magnetic field on either side of the HCS changes at solar maximum [more correctly at polar field reversals], not at solar minimum, so is not tied to even-odd cycle parity. Therefore there is no even-odd effect [as I have shown you], but a polar field reversal to polar field reversal cycle, in geomagnetic activity, in cosmic ray modulation, and in HMF polarity. So it is nonsense to assign a sign to the sunspot number based on even-odd considerations. There is no 22-yr period in solar activity. On the Sun, the solar cycle mechanism works by the magnetic field cancelling out across the equator, but transported to the poles [and into the Sun] to act as a seed for the next cycle.
Any squabble you might have with the Themis project findings, you are welcome to take up with the NASA
It is you who claim that their findings contradict the data [and my earlier work] so it is you who must provide links to papers that claim such contradiction. But you seem to be a master of evasion. One might interpret that as you simply being wrong, but not man enough to admit it and leave it at that. I have no problem with the Themis team as they have never published anything that contradicts the data [and my findings].
August 15, 2014 4:21 am
vukcevic says:
August 15, 2014 at 12:49 am
Implication is clear: there are two 22 year (11 years B more than 0, followed by 11 years B less than 0) running simultaneously, one in each hemisphere, but of the opposite sign; however, the open fluxes do not mix and do not cancel out since they are separated by the HCS.
Again: there is no HCS on the Sun. The HCS appears in space several solar radii above the surface. On the Sun, it is essential for the dynamo that leader sunspot magnetic fields move towards and cancel at the equator while fields of the opposite sign [from the follower spots] move towards the poles to act as seeds for the next cycle. The large scale solar magnetic field [on the sun and in the heliosphere] thus changes at solar maximum when the polar fields reverse, so there is no even-odd cycle but a polar-field-reversal cycle.
It seems that you are not man enough to admit that you made up the contradiction notion, so one might expect your evasion to continue.
August 15, 2014 5:08 am
@vukcevik
best is to leave Leif alone
my theory, based on my own findings,
is that we have 2 x ca.22 year cycles from 1972,
clearly visible here:
http://ice-period.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/sun2013.png
It is called the Hale or the Hale-Nicholson cycle, i.e. one full wave of two Schwabe cycles makes for one whole Hale cycle.
The turning points for the Gleissberg were 1927 and 1972 but the change of sign in Celsius was in 1995.
The 1995 date can be easily calculated from the formulae at the end of my tables:
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/files/2013/02/henryspooltableNEWc.pdf
Note that you can draw bi-nomials for the decrease in solar polar field strengths.
So 1995 is the middle point. Consequently it will not start warming again until 2038.
That is to say: if we donot miss the switch up again in 2015 or 2016…..
At the time the switch on the sun does occur I expect the graph [of the solar polar field strengths] for the next 44 years or so to be the exact mirror of the previous 44 years.
Consequently it will not start warming again until 2038.
August 15, 2014 5:44 am
Actually, MoreCarbonHenry, Monty Python’s illustrative series on historical events invited William Arnold to appear in this segment in which he did a great job describing the very thing you have referred our attentions to. I believe him to be the third expert (but do correct me if I am in error):
August 15, 2014 6:02 am
Leif Svalgaard says: August 15, 2014 at 4:06 am
One might interpret that as you simply being wrong, but not man enough to admit it and leave it at that. I have no problem with the Themis team…………….
There is no 22-yr period in solar activity. On the Sun, the solar cycle mechanism works by the magnetic field cancelling out across the equator……
Let’s deal first with the last.
Fearing oncoming onslaught from the Oooo Leif, fightin words! most enthusiastic and passionate defender of the Svalgaard credo , being not man enough is a minor concern, it is finding the nearest exit for flight to safety that matters.
If Themis doesn’t contradict anything you written about in 1977, that it is fine with me, but if it makes you feel better in going on and on about word ‘CONTRADICT’(contra dictum = speak against) there is a little I can do about it. In no way I consider it to be any kind of insult, but even if you do, since I don’t expect or get any apologies from insults thrown at me on numerous occasions, I offer none.
Now after that is out of way, as far as I am concerned, I am happy to discuss validity or not of what I have written.
I’ll just reiterate, the sun’s north hemisphere has 22 year magnetic cycles, made of 11 years of positive magnetic field orientated pairs of sunspots, and 11 years of negative magnetic field orientated pairs of sunspots.
Not only it is not un-physical, but it is correct to have positive and negative sunspot magnetic field cycles in the north hemisphere, coinciding what we know as even and odd numbered cycles.
The opposite is valid for the south hemisphere.
Essential point here is that the 22 year magnetic cycles of open flux associated with sunspot occurrence in the two hemispheres do not mix, do not cancel out, they exist in parallel and are often shown as the north south solar activity asymmetry.
Calling to the rescue on the cancellation across the solar equator, it does not occur with active sunspots, it is assumed that it happens somewhere deep down from the decayed (let’s say dead) sunspots remnants.
There are no images of the active sunspots magnetic fields connecting and cancelling across the solar equator, and until you show that that is a regular, dominating and documented factor in the solar activity, your assertion can not be accepted as valid.
Anyway, even if it were, it wouldn’t matter for the Earth’s interactions, where the open flux is of the essence.
There is 22 cycle all over the global, hemispheric land and ocean temperature records, but no statistically significant 11 year cycle in the same records.
Further more 22 year cycle has significant presence in the Earth’s core magnetic field, as shown in my article. There are two possibilities here:
– either 22 year cycles come from the sun directly (or indirectly, say the ENSO and monsoons) or
– there is a common cause for both, the solar magnetic field and the Earth’s core 22 year magnetic cycles.
Combination of two cannot be excluded.
August 15, 2014 7:05 am
Blockade over polar circle in the zone of the southern magnetic pole.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/blocking/real_time_sh/500gz_anomalies_sh.gif
August 15, 2014 7:47 am
vukcevic
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/a-gleissberg-solar-minimum/#comment-1709632
henry says
well done Vuk!
Looks to me like you have beaten the life out of Leif
August 15, 2014 7:58 am
@ur momisugly ren,
Read this:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/04/mysterious-electron-stash-found-hidden-among-van-allen-belts/
Shortly after launch, the spacecraft activated their Relativistic Electron-Proton Telescope (REPT) instruments to measure particles within the belts and their immediate environs. The instrument immediately detected on September 1, 2012, the presence of a stable zone of high-energy electrons residing between the belts. This donut-shaped third ring nestled between the belts existed for nearly a month before being obliterated by a powerful shockwave of particles emanating from center of the solar system.
The comments are also very interesting. Example:
lsvalgaard says:
March 4, 2013 at 3:16 pm
vukcevic says:
March 4, 2013 at 1:36 pm
so if there is permanent strong Sun-Jupiter electric current / magnetic field link and the Earth got caught in it, there should be another ‘appearance’ some 13 months later i.e. in October 2013.
But since there is no such link, nothing will happen [and it should happen only then and not at times where there is no lineup]. But, as a prediction, you post is significant. But in keeping with the scientific method, if nothing happens, you must drop the idea. Conversely if shown correct.
I wonder how that turned out.
August 15, 2014 8:03 am
Pam
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/a-gleissberg-solar-minimum/#comment-1709618
henry says
it is all so simple to me that I cannot – for the life me – get it that you do not understand it.
May be you think that “climate science” must be more complicated?
maybe it is true that only 0.3% of all weight of the solar system is in the planets, but it must be significant. Remember, the planets are turning at great speeds, so it is not just weight. Maybe they work together like a crowbar?
I know that just like Leif you actually believe that out of [absolutely] nothing came [absolutely] everything that we see around us. Now for you to believe that such a miracle could have happened is very funny to me….
[jut poking some fun with you, like you did with me]
August 15, 2014 8:05 am
Vuk says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/a-gleissberg-solar-minimum/#comment-1709632
henry says
well done Vuk!
Looks to me like you have beaten the life out of Leif
In a recent paper “The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle and its Association with Extended Minima”, to be soon published in JGR/Space, Feynman and Ruzmaikin discuss how the recent extended minimum of solar and geomagnetic variability (XSM) mirrors the XSMs in the 19th and 20th centuries: 1810–1830 and 1900–1910.
Edited abstract:
Such extended minima also were evident in aurorae reported from 450 AD to 1450 AD. The paper argues that these minima are consistent with minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycles (CGC), a 90–100 year variation observed on the Sun, in the solar wind, at the Earth and throughout the Heliosphere. The occurrence of the recent XSM is consistent with the existence of the CGC as a quasi-periodic variation of the solar dynamo. Evidence of CGC’s is provided by the multi-century sunspot record, by the almost 150-year record of indexes of geomagnetic activity (1868-present), by 1,000 years of observations of aurorae (from 450 to 1450 AD) and millennial records of radionuclides in ice cores.
The “aa” index of geomagnetic activity carries information about the two components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal and poloidal), one driven by flares and CMEs (related to the toroidal field), the other driven by co-rotating interaction regions in the solar wind (related to the poloidal field). These two components systematically vary in their intensity and relative phase giving us information about centennial changes of the sources of solar dynamo during the recent CGC over the last century. The dipole and quadrupole modes of the solar magnetic field changed in relative amplitude and phase; the quadrupole mode became more important as the XSM was approached. Some implications for the solar dynamo theory are discussed.
* Says The Hockey Schtick: If it is true that the current lull in solar activity is “consistent with minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycles,” and the Gleissberg Cycle is a real solar cycle, the current Gleissberg minimum could last a few decades before solar activity begins to rise again.
* Solar physicist Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts the current lull in solar activity will continue until about the middle of the 21st century and lead to a new Little Ice Age within the next 30 years.